00:00Meanwhile, Pradeep Gupta, since you're throwing in a lot of, you know, wait for a big surprise,
00:06wait for a big surprise, I don't know, can you give us the numbers directly?
00:08You tell us what is it, what is it, what is it, what is it, what is it, who is
00:11the government?
00:13Tell us, tell us.
00:14Tell us, tell us, all ears.
00:19So, but Razdeep, you don't say this, it's wrong, you'll study the results later on.
00:26Then tell us, it's wrong, you'll get to know the kids, if they pass, if you don't have 90%
00:33of them,
00:34then you say, I won't make you cry.
00:36No, no, please go ahead, sir, our numbers wait any longer.
00:38No, no, everyone's okay, please go ahead.
00:39Tell us your number.
00:43I am searching for my Tamil Nadu number, it is, my Tamil Nadu number for TVK,
00:51TVK between 98 C's to 110 C's.
00:55Oh, sorry, 98 to 120 C's, 98 to 120 C's.
01:00TVK.
01:01And for DMK+, DMK+, 92 to 110.
01:06Now, one minute, one minute, let me digest what you've just said.
01:09I'm going to go on the, Akshital, go on the, and make those numbers the moment we get them.
01:14You are telling me, Pradeep Gupta is saying,
01:17Mr. Vijay is going to be party number one.
01:22But TVK, as of now, this is the biggest news as of now that we've got from this exit poll.
01:28You are telling me, TVK, Vijay will be the party number one of Tamil Nadu, closely followed by the DMK.
01:39AI-DMK completely wiped out.
01:41It's number three.
01:41Not even 20, 25 seats.
01:43Am I correct?
01:4422 to 32 seats for AI-DMK alliance.
01:47Yeah, but that's a complete, so you're saying it's a hung assembly with Vijay, can be kingmaker, but probably king,
01:56because he's got three times more seats than what the AI-DMK has got.
02:01So, Palani Sami may have to compromise and support Vijay, as could the NDA, basically the NDA.
02:07So, what you're predicting, if your numbers are holding for Tamil Nadu, and we'll put those numbers up in a
02:13moment,
02:14you want to repeat those numbers, 234-member assembly, repeat those numbers so that we flash them.
02:2090 to 200.
02:21I've got it.
02:21You have sent the numbers.
02:2292 to 110, 110 in favor of DMK alliance, 92 to 110.
02:29For DMK alliance and for TVK, 98 to 120, 98 to 120, majority mark is 118.
02:40It's still 98.
02:41If TVK secure, for example, just a moment, if example, TVK secure 100 seats and DMK secure 110,
02:53don't call me, Pradeep, your poll is wrong.
02:55Now, I'm telling you, because you have to see both the number on the telly, both the number on the
03:01telly.
03:01Yeah, so I'm going to repeat your numbers.
03:05DMK plus allies, 90 to 110.
03:08Remember, halfway mark is 117.
03:11In Tamil Nadu, you get 118, you have a majority.
03:14TVK, 98 to 120.
03:17So, their halfway mark between 98 and 120 is about 109, which is a little ahead of what the DMK
03:24alliance's halfway mark is, 101.
03:28AI DMK, 22 to 32.
03:30So, halfway mark is 27.
03:32What you're telling me is TVK is party number one as of now.
03:39Remember, DMK is with allies.
03:40So, it's not just the DMK on its own.
03:43With allies, it is between 92 and 110.
03:46That includes the Congress, the VCK, the DMDK, the MDMK.
03:50It's a 21-member alliance versus a party that has gone into these polls virtually on its own to get
03:5898 to 120.
04:00This is arguably, if these numbers hold, the biggest turnaround since NTR in 1983.
04:06No, no, he's the next NGR of Tamil Nadu.
04:09Of course, Arvind Kejriwal was another example of someone's debut, but in a smaller state like Delhi.
04:14This could be the biggest news that you have.
04:17Remember, last time you got Bengal wrong, Mamata Banerjee was infuriated.
04:24Now, you will infuriate MK Stalin if these numbers hold.
04:28How confident are you about your Tamil Nadu numbers, given this sensational number that you're giving at the moment?
04:35So, Rajdeep, let me give you the vote share also.
04:38We are predicting 35% for both DMK alliance and TVK, 35% for both.
04:46The only difference why the TVK seats looks like more is that wherever DMK is winning, they are winning with
04:53a good margin,
04:54whereas the winning margin is much lower when it comes to TVK.
04:59And that is the precisely reason why I am telling you again and again,
05:04even if TVK got 100 seats and DMK gets 110, my poll is saying so.
05:11But you see the one side of the story.
05:13That's the problem.
05:16What is the other side of the story?
05:18The story is that TVK even end up with a lower range of 98 seats and higher range of 1110
05:26for DMK alliance.
05:27You are not looking at that.
05:28But that's still a great number.
05:30Pradeep Gupta, at the end of the day, the biggest question that was being asked of the TVK
05:33is even if they get the vote share.
05:36And 35% sure.
05:37Many did say maybe it's possible.
05:39You know, consolidating that to ensure seat wins.
05:41Everyone said that's a huge challenge for TVK.
05:44You believe that they've actually managed to transform that vote share into seats so much so that you're giving them
05:50even triple digit.
05:51That's the reason I tell you why it is.
05:54If you see my detailed analysis, in the age group, in the age group and gender group, you will find
06:03all the difference among the...
06:06That women and youth then you're suggesting?
06:09Youth.
06:09Yes, when I say youth, I am referring to 18 to 39 year of age, which contributes to 42%
06:16of the population where TVK Vijay is sweeping, sweeping.
06:22And this is what I refer to as gentrification of the election.
06:25But Pradeep, when you ask them the question on preferred CM, does Vijay score over Stalin?
06:31Yes, 37%.
06:32I'm looking at that number here.
06:33That's 37%.
06:35That's more popular.
06:36That way, more popular.
06:38Even the other parties, he's more popular in that sense.
06:42You know, I'm not surprised by that.
06:43What I'm surprised by is the fact that it's converting into seats.
06:47There's no traditional vote bank.
06:49Pradeep, there's no traditional vote bank for the TVK.
06:51You know, all this while everyone spoke of the Vijay impact,
06:56what you're suggesting is that he's going to be doing an MGR once again.
06:59He's the next MGR of Tamil Nadu, going by your numbers.
07:03Yes, that is precisely what I'm predicting.
07:05MGR and NTR of Andhra Pradesh.
07:09That changes politics forever.
07:11What could have happened?
07:13I mean, I'm looking now at your deep dive.
07:15And Akshida, you can correct me.
07:17The DMK dominated northern Tamil Nadu and Chennai in particular.
07:21And they won it by big margins.
07:23This was also the area where TVK focused a lot of its political equity on.
07:28So, what the TVK seems to have done, if Pradeep's numbers hold,
07:34they have cut into the anti-incumbency vote,
07:36particularly in western Tamil Nadu where the AIDMK is strong
07:39and prevented the AIDMK from winning some of the seats that they used to traditionally win
07:43in areas like Erode, Salem, where they would never lose.
07:46Those were their bastions.
07:48But if these numbers hold, they've obviously swept urban and semi-urban Tamil Nadu.
07:52That's the hold.
07:53What Pradeep's numbers are surprising me is that you're seemingly claiming that
07:57even in rural Tamil Nadu, where there was a belief that the TVK would struggle
08:02because they don't have the organizational machine to match the DMK and AIDMK,
08:06they are winning there.
08:08This is a wave.
08:09Whichever wave, even though it's 35%, 35%,
08:12it's a bit of a wave because they are winning across parts of Tamil Nadu
08:17where you wouldn't have expected them to win.
08:20If these numbers hold.
08:22Rajdeep, hear me out.
08:24In Chennai, in Chennai region, they are doing extraordinarily good.
08:30Extraordinary good.
08:31Even, even for that matter, those big stalwarts,
08:35the biggest name in Chennai and the Tamil Nadu may have tough time.
08:41Are you saying Kolatur?
08:42Are you suggesting Stalin?
08:44Are you suggesting Chepok Uday Nidi Stalin?
08:47I am suggesting all the big guns, including the name you suggested.
08:51I am not saying they are losing.
08:52I am saying it's not easy.
08:54In Chennai particularly.
08:55In Southern Tamil Nadu, also TVK is doing very good.
09:01In Trichy Delta, Kaveri Delta area, DMK is doing good.
09:06In Western Tamil Nadu, where Jay Jailalita used to do good.
09:13All three are doing good.
09:15All three are doing good.
09:18And in Northern Tamil Nadu, DMK is doing little better than DMK.
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