00:00But let's turn from the hills of Assam to the wonderful coastal world of Kerala,
00:05an election that is often closely fought.
00:08The Axis My India poll, guess what, is giving the Congress-led UDF a clear win in Kerala.
00:16So amidst all the troubles the Congress has had in state after state,
00:21finally it appears that they might find a houseboat for themselves in the backwaters of Kerala.
00:27As per the poll, 140 seats in Kerala at stake, 78-90 for the UDF, LDF at 49-52.
00:38The BJP, which remember, historically has just won one Assembly Constituency in the past,
00:44that was Neemam, that was in 2016 and have only won one Lok Sabha seat, which was Trisur,
00:50last time now is 0-3.
00:53Kerala could well be the next southern citadel to fall to the Congress.
00:59So the Congress, which is in power in Karnataka and Telangana, has been in alliance in Tamil Nadu,
01:04could now be hoping that they will finally come back to power in Kerala after a decade out of it.
01:11So 78-90 is what the Axis Y India poll is predicting for Kerala.
01:18The left, which was 99 last time, is taking a huge hit.
01:22It is down to 49-52.
01:25So clearly there is a huge swing, 49-62, a huge swing away from the left.
01:31Even at the top end, they are still short, well short of a majority.
01:36So the big story that's coming in at the moment on the exit poll, Axis Y India exit poll for
01:43India today,
01:44suggesting a big win for the Congress in the state of Kerala.
01:49No surprises many would believe then, but it is going to give the Congress and Akshita some element
01:55that there deep in the south, you've got finally come back to power.
01:59Because had they lost, or if they end up losing, there's only an exit poll,
02:03they will have lost three consecutive elections, and that could push the Congress to the back foot in Kerala.
02:10No, it's like I said, Rajdeep, this was an absolute sitter for the UDF.
02:13So the numbers they're reflecting that finally you'll see them at about 78-90, the exit poll.
02:18I'll just highlight, Rajdeep, also the vote share and what that looks like.
02:22You know, it's almost a flip from what we saw in 2021,
02:24because the UDF, it says, is at 44%, the LDF at 39%.
02:28It was exactly the other way around in 2021.
02:31So the UDF at 44%, the LDF at 39%, what it reflects to me,
02:36and this was really one of the biggest factors in this election,
02:39is whether the UDF would manage minority consolidation.
02:43They've managed to do that.
02:44And I'm sure that one of the biggest contributors to that is their alliance with the IUML.
02:49That would have made a difference also for them.
02:51So what you've got is actually, when you look at those numbers,
02:54the UDF, which was 38%, just over 38% last time, is getting a 6% swing in its favour.
03:01The LDF, which was at around 43-44%, as Akshita rightly put it, completely flips, goes back to 39%.
03:08In Kerala, that can happen.
03:09This has very much been a bipolar state.
03:12The BJP is 14%.
03:1514%.
03:16It's got smaller allies like the 2020 party, but basically 14%,
03:20which is up compared to 2021 Assembly, when they were at 11%,
03:24but down compared to Lok Sabha, when they were around, almost approaching that 20% mark.
03:30So that 14%, many will believe, cephalogically is key,
03:35because they are taking away, possibly, in Southern Kerala in particular,
03:39a section of the LDF vote.
03:41So what's happened in Kerala is a consolidation,
03:44as many expected in Northern and Central Kerala,
03:47around the Congress, Christian-dominated and Muslim-dominated areas.
03:51They've consolidated in Southern Kerala, where the BJP was slowly growing areas in and around Thiruvananthapuram.
03:58You've got the BJP in double digits, possibly taking votes away from the LDF.
04:05So Pindrai Vijayan, with whom I share a birthday, incidentally,
04:08is possibly now ending his political career,
04:11having achieved just five years ago, if these numbers hold,
04:14what no one else had at the time, remember,
04:16for 40 years, won two consecutive elections.
04:20So Kerala, the waters are very tranquil out there,
04:23but that will give a lot of consolation to the Congress party.
04:26That will also start, Preeti,
04:28a battle within a battle,
04:30koon bannega chief minister.
04:31Exactly, Rajinder.
04:32I have had calls from four different Congress factions.
04:36Do you think humara number lagega?
04:38So, I mean, in English,
04:40do you think our turn will come?
04:42Who's going to become the chief minister
04:44will be almost as interesting as the result itself now?
04:48Three Nair's.
04:49And yeah, that's true.
04:49Three Nair's.
04:50Three Nair's.
04:50Vidi Satishat.
04:51Vidi Satishat.
04:52There's Kesi Venugopal and Ramesh Chenitalan.
04:54Go ahead.
04:54Three Nair's.
04:55But no, Rajdeep, because you started off with that,
04:57finally the Congress will get their houseboat in Kerala,
04:59but who's going to steer that houseboat?
05:01And I think the fight will be about
05:03who will actually steer that houseboat, but...
05:05Of course, not only the captains.
05:06They work on their own.
05:06They work on their own.
05:07Do you think the Congress will be able to work it on their own?
05:09From Delhi.
05:10From Delhi.
05:11No.
05:11But I would think, and you know, Akshita,
05:14you travelled a lot more in Kerala than any of us did.
05:18Vidi Satishan, still ahead of the other?
05:21More popular.
05:21More popular?
05:21Yes.
05:22And rooted in Kerala politics.
05:24You know, Kesi Venugopal, someone who's been in Delhi.
05:26So that way, Vidi Satishan has that advantage of being rooted.
05:30And someone, imagine if he wins in his seat,
05:33is winning for a record sixth time.
05:35And so that tells you the kind of image that Vidi Satishan has.
05:39Yeah.
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