- 2 days ago
This broadcast examines escalating geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and South Asia. Iranian officials have rejected mediation efforts by Pakistan, alleging a bias toward the United States.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching India First. I'm Gaurav Savant.
00:03A senior Iranian lawmaker has hit out at Pakistan for not being either impartial or unbiased as a mediator.
00:12So far, this was commentary and analysis in Iranian media.
00:17But now, Ibrahim Razai, senior Iranian lawmaker and the spokesperson of Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission,
00:27has called out Pakistan's double game, alleging that the leadership at Islamabad and Rawalpindi are too aligned to Washington, D
00:36.C. to be an effective go-between.
00:39Mohamed Ibrahim Razai represents the Dashtetan constituency.
00:45This is in the Bushehr province, in the southern part of Iran.
00:49This is along the Persian Gulf Coast.
00:51And he is seen as a hardline conservative lawmaker, a very powerful lawmaker in Iran.
00:58He serves as the official spokesperson of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Majlis of the Iranian
01:06parliament.
01:07Now, this committee, the Foreign Policy Committee, is one of the Majlis's most influential committees.
01:14And this committee oversees and comments on Iran's foreign policy, nuclear issues, regional security,
01:22relations with countries like the United States, with countries in Europe and Iran's neighbourhood.
01:29Now, this lawmaker describes Pakistan as a good friend, a neighbour.
01:35But he goes on to say, Pakistan is not suitable as an intermediary for negotiations
01:42because Pakistan lacks the necessary credibility that's needed for mediation.
01:47He then goes on to accuse Islamabad of aligning with U.S. President Donald Trump's interests,
01:53saying Islamabad, more importantly, Rawalpindi, always takes Donald Trump's interests into account
02:00and does not say a word against American visions.
02:05And this isn't an off-the-cuff statement.
02:07He elaborates.
02:08He then gives details, like Pakistan failing to criticise the United States
02:13when Washington allegedly failed to honour commitments either on the issue of Lebanon
02:19being a part of the ceasefire agreement or blocking Iranian assets.
02:23The blocked Iranian assets being cleared.
02:27Iran's immediate or short-term demand has been that at least $6 billion of frozen funds,
02:35frozen Iranian funds, particularly those held in Qatar Royal Revenue,
02:39from earlier deals be released immediately.
02:42And this has repeatedly been cited as a starting point or a confidence-building measure.
02:48Iran says at least release $6 billion.
02:51Pakistan does not take Iran's case to America,
02:55but always, always tells Iran to do what Donald Trump wants.
03:00So Iran is unhappy.
03:02Pakistan has never taken up its interests with the U.S.
03:05while unilaterally asking Tehran to accept Trump's demands,
03:09for example, opening the Strait of Hormuz first.
03:12I'll get you more on this story.
03:14But first, listen in to Ibrahim Rizai.
03:17I'll get you more on this story.
03:50This is the peace talks of Pakistan from the United States.
03:55Incidentally, this isn't the first time that Iran has called out Pakistan's role in peace talks.
03:59Iranian media in the past has launched direct attacks on Pakistan's role as a mediator.
04:06The media so far, analysts in Iranian television, they accused Islamabad,
04:10more importantly, Rawalpindi-based film Marshall Asim Mounir, of duplicity.
04:15Incidentally, as an aside,
04:17Asim Munir was known as deceiver even in his academy days.
04:23Now, he's field marshal of Pakistan.
04:25And now it's not just his friends in the academy or his instructors,
04:30not even neighbours, not even Iran,
04:33is accusing Pakistan of duplicity and not being a neutral mediator.
04:39Iranian commentators have accused Pakistan of playing this double game.
04:42Islamabad's policy is aligned with the United States,
04:46privately maintaining engagement with Tehran.
04:49Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir has been directly named by Iranian media.
04:54He's directly been accused of having a pronounced bias.
04:57He's serving his American masters.
05:00Iranian commentators say Asim Munir carried Tehran's draft proposal to Washington DC
05:05but failed to secure or even communicate any response back to Iran.
05:09Iran has also questioned Pakistan's handling of the entire negotiation process.
05:14They've said Iran's proposals have been sidelined in favour of new demands
05:18that came from the United States.
05:21Iranian analysts have also claimed Islamabad has attempted to project progress in peace talks
05:26that do not exist on ground only to please Donald Trump.
05:31Iran says Pakistan's messaging is premature.
05:36Pakistan's messaging is misleading.
05:39They then go on to say that Pakistan is trying to show that there is momentum in the negotiations
05:45when Iran clearly sending out a signal that the talks are stalled.
05:49Iran has expressed reluctance to even participate in subsequent rounds of dialogue
05:54but Pakistan sends out completely a different message.
05:58Now, what do these negotiations and the massive U.S. armed build-up in the region indicate?
06:06Now, Syed Abbas Araki, the foreign minister of Iran, he travelled to Islamabad, he travelled to Oman,
06:13he's travelling to St. Petersburg in Russia and Russia adds a new dimension to these negotiations.
06:21Remember, there are commentators who say that if Iran is unwilling to hand over that enriched uranium
06:28to the United States of America, can it be handed over either to Russia or to China?
06:33Russia said they've made that offer even in the past.
06:36But how are we moving forward?
06:38And what should we make of this massive troop build-up that's going on in the region?
06:42Joining me on this India Today special broadcast is Colonel Douglas McGregor,
06:47a decorated U.S. combat veteran, author and prominent foreign policy commentator.
06:54Colonel McGregor, as always, welcome.
06:58Three aircraft carrier strike groups are in the central command area of responsibility.
07:04Does the massive air bridge that's also in place currently indicate coercive manoeuvres
07:10or preparation, in your view, sir, of the next phase of conflict?
07:16The force build-up that has been underway now for some time is effectively complete,
07:22and I think they are now postured to resume the war if they are ordered to do so.
07:28And at the moment, I see no evidence that we will not resume the attack against Iran.
07:35Your impression is that in case President Trump orders,
07:38the forces are now prepared to launch the next phase of offensive.
07:42And Iranian lawmaker, Ibrahim Razai, he's hit out at Rawalpindi or Islamabad,
07:48saying that two aligned to the interests of Washington, D.C.
07:52You, in the past, have described the Pakistan-mediated talks as fiction
07:55with no evidence of Iranian interest.
07:58Now, were these talks a hoax for the U.S. to build up for the next round?
08:05I think that the talks were always designed to buy time.
08:09And in the hopes, I think on one side, that there would be some negotiation or some talks
08:14with the Iranians.
08:15And on the other, if there were no talks, that then we could attack.
08:20We have not been communicating directly with the Iranians at all.
08:24And I think the Pakistanis have been under great pressure, particularly from the Chinese,
08:29to try and cultivate an environment in which the Iranians could come forward and agree to something.
08:35That has failed.
08:36As far as I can tell, the Iranian ten points are unchanged.
08:41Iranian readiness to talk is genuine.
08:45But they see no point in it at the moment, since whenever they meet with us,
08:50all we do is repeat Israel's demands.
08:53And as I've said repeatedly, Iran will not accept Israel's demands.
08:59True.
08:59So, is the U.S. being stubborn, demanding that 400-plus kilograms of enriched uranium
09:07be handed over to the U.S.?
09:09Or is Iran being stubborn, not handing it over either to the U.S. or even Russia and China?
09:15Is there a middle ground possible?
09:17Or do neither side want a solution right now?
09:20I think Iran sees this as an issue of sovereignty and national independence.
09:26Put yourself, as an Indian, in the position of the Iranians.
09:31For them, the right to enrich uranium for whatever purpose.
09:35And thus far, they have not attempted to build a nuclear weapon, contrary to popular belief.
09:40But it is their right, as a sovereign state, to enrich uranium for other purposes,
09:45just as it's a sovereign right of India to maintain a nuclear capability.
09:51So, I think from their standpoint, it's clear, it's unambiguous.
09:54This is about their sovereignty, their independence.
09:59What we're trying to do is force them to the table and accept the demands that are really Israeli demands.
10:06Our demands are actually not our own.
10:09These are Israel's demands.
10:11We are there because of Israel.
10:13We are fighting because of Israel.
10:15And that's something that the Iranians don't completely understand, but they recognize that.
10:21And so, under the circumstances, I don't see these talks producing any results whatsoever.
10:27Okay.
10:28So, is Iran, as of now, when it says, yes, we are willing to talk,
10:33but we are not willing to hand over 450 kilograms of enriched uranium,
10:37or it's a right to enrich uranium,
10:39are they stringing the U.S. along till closer to midterm elections,
10:44hoping that Trump will not be, President Trump will not be able to continue the conflict?
10:49No.
10:50And I think the reason I can say no is that Iran understands that President Trump enjoys the support of
10:58the U.S. Congress.
11:00Whatever individual members of Congress may say, the truth is that they are all supporting the Israel lobby and its
11:08agents in the United States.
11:09They have all signed on for the war on behalf of Israel.
11:13Frankly speaking, what happens in the fall is not terribly relevant in that sense.
11:18So, why, if you're an Iranian, would you bother taking us seriously?
11:23We've lied repeatedly in the past about what we would or would not do.
11:27They have no expectation that we are going to be any different in the future.
11:31So, I think from the Iranian standpoint, they're going to prepare to fight.
11:34And it's up to us to decide, do we want to continue the fight or not?
11:38And that's not going to be contingent on any talks or discussions with the Iranians.
11:43Okay.
11:44And when you look at the prosecution of battles so far, first, the use of air power and both Israel
11:51and the United States pounding Iran, the northern part of the country, the southern part of the country.
11:58And I'll come to Hezbollah and Lebanon in just a moment.
12:00And for the moment, sir, focusing solely on Iran.
12:04Then the employment of naval power and the blockade.
12:08Beyond this, if the war, God forbid, were to start again, does the true build-up point to the use
12:15of boots on ground and taking control of Iranian oil?
12:19That seems unlikely, but it's still not impossible.
12:22I think for the moment, the focus will be on air and missile attacks again.
12:26And then it will depend upon whether or not we think we're having any effect.
12:30I mean, the more we look at the damage inflicted on Iran to this point, the less convinced we are
12:37that this air and missile campaign is working.
12:40So the real issue is if you're going to use ground forces, you also have to commit large numbers of
12:45air and missile attacks to protect the ground forces inside the Persian Gulf.
12:50That means you have to defeat Iranian air defenses as well as defeat their strike weapons.
12:56That's extremely difficult.
12:57But we have several thousand troops.
13:00They are now organized and assembled in the region.
13:03They could be used to seize islands.
13:06Frankly, I think it would change nothing strategically in the grand scheme of things because ultimately Iran can control that
13:14strait, whether or not it has any Iranian troops or naval forces present.
13:20They have strike weapons, strike systems all over the country that we have failed to identify and we have failed
13:27to stop.
13:28And those can strike at any time at anything moving through the strait.
13:33In addition to that, I don't think the blockade is very effective.
13:36We're sitting roughly three to five hundred miles south of the Persian Gulf.
13:41Why?
13:42Because we're afraid that the ships will come under attack and could be damaged or sunk.
13:46So, again, I think we're at a crossroads, you might say.
13:51Do we resume the attacks and hope for a better result this time?
13:55Or do we finally conclude that the attacks are not going to fundamentally change anything inside Iran?
14:01I can't answer that because I don't know what the discussions are in the White House.
14:06If we knew that, then it would be a more interesting interview.
14:09It still is a very interesting interview.
14:12But let me put this to you, that in case U.S. realizes that air and missile attacks are not
14:20working,
14:21the naval blockade is not working, would this indicate that Iran has been able to beat back the world's biggest
14:29air power,
14:30naval power, economic power?
14:32Iran's prestige will increase.
14:34America's prestige will decrease.
14:36And this will have huge ramifications for the region and the world.
14:41Absolutely.
14:42Without question.
14:43I think we can argue that we have the wrong force in the wrong place at the wrong time for
14:49the wrong mission.
14:50You're looking at a World War II style fleet and air forces trying to attack a 21st century country
14:57that is a virtual fortress surrounded by mountains, half the size of India with 93 million people.
15:04They have invested very heavily in underground facilities and in the ability to launch missiles and unmanned systems at will
15:11against any target within, say, 500 to 1,000 miles of Iran.
15:16That's proven to be a very powerful defense, a defense that we cannot easily overcome.
15:21So, yes, that would be embarrassing and it would be disappointing to people.
15:27But on the other hand, if we were to press ahead with this and then fail completely,
15:32we would have exhausted our stocks of precision-guided missiles, precision munitions,
15:37but we would also look ridiculous in the eyes of the world.
15:40And remember, the longer we drag this out, the more that we insist on attacking Iran,
15:45the more damage we do to the global energy complex.
15:49We're doing damage to you in India.
15:51We're doing damage to our friends in Japan and Korea.
15:55This is outrageous.
15:56And that's something that the president needs to consider.
15:59It would be very smart of him to say, look, we probably cannot go further because if we do,
16:05we'll do more damage to the world that we do not want to inflict.
16:09And on humanitarian grounds, I, the president, have decided to disengage and withdraw our forces.
16:15We'll have to find another way to resolve our differences with Iran.
16:19The problem is there is a third party in all of this.
16:23That third party is Israel.
16:25And the Israelis have not said anything, except this morning I saw the defense minister of Israel argue that Iran
16:33must be destroyed.
16:36That's his position.
16:37He reiterated that very completely and carefully.
16:40So, I think at this stage, the question is, will Mr. Trump simply tell Israel we've gone far enough?
16:47In fact, we've probably gone too far.
16:49It's in the interest of the global economy to stop?
16:52Or is he going to continue to take orders from Israel?
16:57Will it be loss of prestige, not just for the United States, but the world order as we know it
17:03would change in the region?
17:05Iran would emerge as a supreme power, charging $2 million per ship.
17:12Whether it's Saudi Arabia or Kuwait or Qatar or Iraq, they will all have to pay.
17:17Right now, I'm told the negotiations that happened between Oman and Iran was for the control, joint control of the
17:25strait.
17:25But either ways, the Gulf region would be subservient to Iran, would it?
17:31Well, I think that's absolutely true, except that I would point out that this is a point in time where
17:37if we were to disengage, the world's great powers need to meet.
17:41They need to develop a convention similar to the Montrose Convention that was developed in 1926 for the Dardanelles, for
17:50the Bosporus.
17:51Turkey ended up, despite having lost the war in World War I, Turkey ended up responsible for that strait.
17:59And that made sense since the Turks had most of the coastline.
18:02Iran controls most of the coastline.
18:05So it makes sense that Iran would ultimately end up in a responsible position.
18:09If India, China, Russia and other great powers were willing to sit down and hammer out such a solution, then
18:20I think Iran would behave as a normal state within the broader framework of the international community.
18:28But right now, Iran is under threat from us.
18:31And as long as Iran is under threat from us, they're going to do whatever they must to survive.
18:37But wouldn't Russia and China, of course, certainly not India, but Russia and China just wait for America to spend
18:45more of their precision-guided bombs, spend more of their arsenal, use up their arsenal, become weaker?
18:52China would become stronger in the Taiwan Strait and in that region?
18:57Russia would be stronger and they would wait for U.S. power to wane, just spend their power in this
19:03pointless war, as you point out, in Iran, sir?
19:06I think Russia and China have already grown stronger as a result of this war.
19:12The Russians are making somewhere in the vicinity of $250 billion more money right now than they've made in the
19:20past from oil alone.
19:22The Chinese very much want an end to this, however, because ultimately this is bad for commerce.
19:29This is bad for business.
19:31This drives down living standards.
19:33It destroys prosperity.
19:34I think we have to be careful not to assume that Russia and China necessarily want the war to continue.
19:41I don't think they do.
19:43I think we should end the war for the reasons that I've already cited.
19:47And I think the president should do that.
19:49But the president is committed to Israel.
19:52And the Israelis want this war to continue until, in their estimation, the Iranian state is destroyed.
19:58I don't think that's the outcome.
20:00I don't think that will happen.
20:01And I think the region will explode if this continues.
20:05I think you will see Egypt and Turkey both become co-belligerents if this war continues much longer.
20:13This would be a disaster for the region, a disaster for the world.
20:17But I don't know what's happening in the White House.
20:20I wish I did.
20:20It's already a disaster for the world, as you very rightly point out.
20:24And it will just go from bad to worse.
20:27But Colonel McGregor, is the ultimate aim of the United States to control, to take control of Iran oil?
20:35First Venezuela and now Iran.
20:38Just have the capacity, whether they do it or not, have the capacity to choke oil supplies to China.
20:44Is that the aim?
20:45Is that feasible?
20:46China can choke rare earth material supply to the U.S.
20:51U.S. wants to have a counterbalance to China.
20:55Well, President Trump will visit China, I think, in another several weeks.
21:00The meeting has set between him and President Xi.
21:03I don't think President Trump wants to walk into that meeting and essentially state,
21:09we've done everything we can to harm China.
21:11Now let's sit down and talk.
21:13So I don't think that's the goal.
21:16I think there are people in Washington and in many parts of the world that think that somehow or another,
21:21if China is harmed, it will be good for us.
21:23I don't see any evidence for that.
21:25We are all part of a global economy right now.
21:28We are all part of a global energy complex.
21:31Prices in the United States are rising.
21:33Inflation is running away.
21:35We have serious problems with our banking system and liquidity.
21:38I mean, I could go on and on.
21:40None of this is necessarily good for us.
21:43So I think that while some people talk in those terms, the truth is, no, we need China, and China
21:50needs us, just as we need India, and India needs us.
21:54We are a part of a larger community.
21:56So, no, I don't see any benefit to harming China, and I think President Trump is enough of a businessman
22:03that he recognizes at this point that it doesn't make much sense.
22:07However, having said all of that, you're still back to Israel.
22:10Yes.
22:11What is Israel going to demand, and will we continue to do whatever Israel tells us to do?
22:18Yes.
22:18So let's for a moment talk about what's happening right now between Israel and Hezbollah.
22:25I'll come back to this issue of what's happening at the Strait of Hormuz in just a moment because U
22:29.S. brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
22:32Today, Hezbollah targeted Israeli defense forces.
22:36There was a drone attack when a CASVAC, I think there was a medical evacuation that was going on.
22:41That's the time a drone attack took place.
22:44In your view, would this lead to more escalation?
22:46Because apparently Israel has also issued some kind of a deadline for people even north of Litani River to clear
22:54another five, seven kilometers.
22:56Israel remains committed to the greater Israel project, which means that millions of people living in southern Lebanon on the
23:04West Bank inside Gaza are compelled to leave their homes or be killed.
23:09This is unacceptable.
23:11The world opposes this.
23:13The United Nations opposes this.
23:15Russia opposes it.
23:17China opposes it.
23:18We are the ones backing Israel in this unfortunate campaign.
23:23Israel has failed to destroy Hamas.
23:25Israel has failed to destroy Hezbollah.
23:28I think we need to come to terms with the reality that little Israel on its own cannot achieve any
23:34of these aims.
23:35They can only do what they do as long as we support them in this broader regional war of conquest
23:42for Israel.
23:43I just don't know that we can continue that much longer because it simply is not in our national strategic
23:49interest.
23:50But again, the president has the support of Congress to do that.
23:53And I don't think they realize yet how profoundly damaging all of this is to us, to our reputation, to
24:02our credibility, and ultimately to our economy.
24:05Colonel McGregor, with the ceasefire scheduled to expire, there are reports, again, these are reports in the Western media that
24:12speak of preparations for a total war.
24:16What is your reading, one of this word, total war, and what could be the trigger that could lead to
24:25a U.S.-Iran confrontation, direct confrontation or military confrontation, and your view, in coming days or weeks, or could it
24:33be stalled for months?
24:35Well, for Iran, and I would argue also for Israel, this is already total war, so there's nothing new in
24:42that.
24:42The question is, what do we do? Where do we fit in?
24:46And we're back to where we started.
24:48The president has to sit down and carefully consider all of the interests of the United States, as well as
24:54our partners around the world,
24:55in order to make a decision that makes sense from the standpoint of the global economy and the global energy
25:02complex.
25:03We are staring at two to five years of recovery for the damage that has already been done.
25:09We can go through that in detail if you want at some point, but I think it's pretty clear to
25:14any of the global analysts, it'll take two to five years to recover.
25:18If we resume this war, and we go in and continue to try and destroy Iran, Iran has promised to
25:26counter-strike.
25:27And those strikes will land on the west coast of the Persian Gulf, and completely eliminate the remaining oil infrastructure
25:34in all of the Gulf states.
25:36That means it'll be 10 years or more, and perhaps maybe never, that we will see recovery in the Persian
25:44Gulf.
25:45Yes, Iran's threat, and it's a big threat.
25:49Iran says for every one oil well of Iran destroyed, they will destroy four in the region.
25:56And that's a huge threat from Iran's side, trying to prevent an escalation or sending out a very clear message.
26:02And so far, as you know better, sir, in your military analysis, whatever Iran says, it has done that.
26:08And measure for measure, can that be seen as escalation or just measure for measure in your view, sir?
26:16Absolutely. I think we can rely on the Iranians to do what they say.
26:20They've demonstrated that conclusively.
26:23And I go back to my hope that Prime Minister Modi will become more active in the process of bringing
26:29this war to a close.
26:30India is now a key component of the global economy and a great power.
26:35It needs to assert its influence.
26:37Regardless of its disputes with other countries, this is now about global economic health and survival.
26:44And I think that's where Prime Minister Modi needs to step in.
26:47And I think if he does, he's going to have a huge impact, because his position is viewed as extremely
26:56important to the United States.
26:58This is why I keep saying all of these leaders need to make it clear to Donald Trump what is
27:03at stake and what they want him to do.
27:05And I think the answer is we want to solve this problem, but it has to be solved at the
27:10negotiating table.
27:11Military power will solve nothing.
27:13All military power can do is destroy more infrastructure and more lives.
27:18There are 67 million people right now living in the area surrounding the Persian Gulf on the west side.
27:26Millions of those people will have to leave.
27:29If they don't leave, they'll die, because they will not have power.
27:32There will be no ability for them to survive and sustain themselves.
27:36They will not have food.
27:37They will not have water.
27:38We could go on and on.
27:40Is this what we want?
27:42Is this what we want?
27:43I don't think this is what the world wants.
27:45I don't think it's in our interest.
27:47So, hopefully, someone like Prime Minister Modi can make this very clear to President Trump.
27:52That will help him make the right decision.
27:54But tell me this, sir.
27:55What is it that India can do which would be different from what Oman has already tried?
28:01And, you know, okay, Pakistan may have been, as Iran says, as their lawmakers say, Pakistan may have been too
28:07close to the United States of America.
28:09Or Pakistan, as many argue, may be more interested in promoting its image, whitewashing its own image of being a
28:15state sponsor of radical Islamist terror.
28:17But Oman went into these negotiations with a very clean hand.
28:20What is it that India can do which would be different from what Oman has already done?
28:24I think Prime Minister Modi is not really in the business of negotiating an end to this and mediating disputes.
28:33But I think Prime Minister Modi needs to say is that he represents 1.3, 1.4 billion people on
28:40the Indian subcontinent.
28:41And that his concern is preeminently not just for them, but for the global economy.
28:47And he has to make it clear to President Trump what the ramifications are of continuing this war.
28:53And make it clear that if this continues, India will not be a strategic partner for the United States.
28:59India is going to seek strategic cooperation elsewhere.
29:03Because it's a matter of life and death for India, as it is for China and Russia and Iran, Turkey,
29:10and many, many other countries.
29:12Europe, in particular, is suffering terribly as a result of this energy crisis.
29:17I just don't think that President Trump has fully grasped the extent of the disaster that this war has created
29:26for the rest of the world.
29:27We're too myopically focused on just Iran.
29:31And Iran is going to survive.
29:33I think that's clear.
29:34That's the point.
29:36We need to come to terms with that reality.
29:38I completely take your point there, sir.
29:41But should the United States proceed with further strikes or even continue to maintain the blockade?
29:47What would be the immediate impact?
29:50And what would be the strategic impact of this move for the region, for the oil markets, for alliances, and
29:57for the world, sir?
29:58In the interest of the global economic community, in the interest of the global energy complex,
30:05the blockade that we've established should end and end immediately.
30:09We have an interest in moving energy from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world.
30:15It's going to take us months to recover from the stoppage and to get millions and millions of barrels of
30:22oil back on the market,
30:23but more important, to ship them and all the petroleum products that are based on them.
30:28So I think he has to end that blockade as soon as possible.
30:32Whether or not he likes it doesn't make any difference.
30:35He's no longer dealing exclusively with the Iranian government.
30:39He's doing something that is in the interest of the global community.
30:43That's where he needs to focus at this point.
30:46So step number one, end the blockade, suspend any further military action,
30:51and decide how you want to press forward.
30:54And I think the only way to press forward is at the negotiating table.
30:57And I think that President Trump, if he turns to others, will have plenty of help with that.
31:02Okay.
31:03And what is your reading of reports, though these are claims by analysts,
31:08that Iran is able to beat this blockade by sending its dark-free tankers from the Iranian territorial waters
31:16to the Pakistani territorial waters, and Pakistan is playing all sides here?
31:21Of course.
31:23I mean, there's no doubt about it.
31:24But are we expected to police the world?
31:28I don't think so.
31:29And the other point is, the Iranians are going to do whatever they need to do to survive.
31:34That's very clear.
31:37We shouldn't be surprised by any of that.
31:39What we should be interested in doing is returning to a status quo that is fair and just and profitable
31:47for everyone.
31:49President Trump talks about that frequently.
31:51He says we can all get rich together.
31:53Well, right now we're all getting poor together.
31:56And that needs to stop.
31:58And your reading of the current peace talks in Russia, the dialogue with Oman,
32:02the joint control of Strait of Hormuz that Iran is speaking of,
32:06Iran wants the U.S. out of West Asia region.
32:09Clearly, U.S. will not want this.
32:12Well, that's not necessarily the case.
32:15Remember that we've been there for a very long time.
32:18The real question is, why were we there?
32:20Well, we promised to protect the states in the Persian Gulf,
32:24not just from Iran, but from virtually any potential adversary.
32:29We've demonstrated very conclusively that we cannot do that.
32:33Technology has changed.
32:35Warfare has changed.
32:37We cannot shoot down thousands of incoming missiles.
32:40We cannot stop tens of thousands of unmanned aircraft.
32:44We don't have the capacity.
32:45It's time for us to admit that the world has changed.
32:49Secondly, we can't afford to have large numbers of troops forward in other people's countries.
32:55And putting them there simply puts them at risk unnecessarily.
32:59So I think the old world is past.
33:02The old world order is past.
33:04I wrote an article on this, and this is the reverse of 1492.
33:09Things are now moving in Asia's direction, in the direction of Central Asia and Greater Asia.
33:15We need to come to terms with this.
33:17Not view it as something dangerous, but view it as an opportunity for greater commerce, trade, and cooperation.
33:24Washington hasn't figured that out yet, but I think they will.
33:27So, reports are just coming in.
33:29I'm reading it right now.
33:31Iran has offered to open the Strait of Hormuz.
33:34They want America to lift the blockade.
33:36Now, is this becoming a classic chicken and egg situation?
33:40Iran says America should open the blockade first, then they'll open the Strait of Hormuz.
33:45In the past, when they offered to open, America refused to remove the blockade.
33:48And Iran looks at that as loss of face, sir.
33:52Listen, I agree with your assessment.
33:55This is very silly.
33:56This is nonsensical at this point.
33:58We should be the adult and simply announce that we are disengaging.
34:04We are pulling away from this blockade.
34:06We will no longer stop and search vessels.
34:08And by the way, you know, we very stupidly searched some vessels all the way in the Strait of Malacca.
34:15The last thing that we want to do at this stage is widen the war.
34:19But frequently, states do that.
34:21They widen the war to conceal their defeat and hope that by widening the war, they'll somehow or another achieve
34:27success.
34:28That's not going to work in the Strait of Malacca.
34:30We need to be interested and be a strategic partner for everyone and understand that all of these choke points,
34:37all of these waterways must remain accessible and open.
34:41We can demonstrate that by acting unilaterally and simply announcing we have reconsidered.
34:48We are ending the blockade.
34:49I think that would improve things dramatically.
34:52Now, it's not going to satisfy the Israelis who seem to want the complete and total destruction of the Iranian
34:58nation and people.
34:59I don't support that.
35:01I don't think President Trump really wants that, despite some of the stupid remarks that he's made in that connection.
35:06And that is not in the interest of the world.
35:09As you know, just as India is a core civilizational state, so is Persia.
35:15And I will let that be the last word on this part of the show.
35:18Colonel McGregor, as always, such a pleasure talking to you.
35:22Let's hope, you know, your sane words are taken by the powers that be and sanity prevails.
35:30Many thanks for joining me, sir.
35:36Iran's Foreign Minister, Syed Abbas Araki, is in Russia.
35:39He's arrived in St. Petersburg after his visit to Pakistan and to Oman.
35:44Russian President Vladimir Putin, he met Syed Abbas Araki.
35:49Russian media has put out some details.
35:51President Putin said Russia hopes that the people of Iran will weather what he described was a very difficult period
35:59and that ultimately peace will prevail.
36:03He said Russia would do everything in the interests of Iran and other countries in the region.
36:09Syed Abbas Araki has said extensive and excessive demands of the United States led to the failure of talks.
36:16Araki called his Islamabad visit successful and said they reviewed conditions under which the talks can continue.
36:24But then he did say that talks failed because the United States adopted the wrong approach.
36:31He said that demands were excessive.
36:34Iran is no longer willing to negotiate over its nuclear program.
36:38Instead, Iran has suggested a two-stage deal structure where the Strait of Hormuz is opened immediately
36:45and the global shipping is restored.
36:48This proposal includes either a long-term ceasefire or a permanent end to conflict.
36:53Iran wants sanctioned pressures to be eased up front before deeper negotiations,
36:59including the U.S. naval blockade is lifted.
37:03Listen in to Syed Abbas Araki, the foreign minister of Iran.
37:05I'll get you more on the story.
37:09Nevertheless, there have been developments in the talks.
37:11U.S. approaches caused the last round of talks to fail to reach results despite progress that has been made.
37:16Their excessive demands and the wrong approaches they adopted.
37:19It was necessary to review the latest situation with our friends in Pakistan and praise to Allah, it was a
37:25very good visit.
37:26We reviewed what has happened so far and under what conditions the talks can continue.
37:3040 days of heroic resistance by the Iranian people has enabled us to reclaim the rights and safeguard the interests
37:36of the country.
37:41News coming in of fresh clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border along the Durand line.
37:50Reports from Kabul say intense fighting along the Durand line focused on Afghanistan's Kunar province
37:58and Pakistan's Bajor district in the Khaybar-Pakhtunkhwa province.
38:04Both sides, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
38:08Initially, it started with the use of small arms.
38:11Then it escalated the use of waters and then artillery was used.
38:17Water shells reportedly landed in Pakistan's Lagra area in Bajor.
38:22Afghan officials, they've told journalists in Afghanistan, and this has been quoted by Tolo News, also Kunar provincial authorities,
38:30they've reported a Pakistani drone strike, an artillery barrage, a possible airstrike in Kunar.
38:37This happened late afternoon today.
38:39Targets included residential areas, villages around Astabad, the provincial capital, and the Sayyad Jamaluddin Afghan University.
38:48Reports say the faculty of education building was badly damaged.
38:52Reports also say three people were killed in Afghanistan.
38:5545 people, mostly civilians, including women and children, have been injured.
38:59There's a statement that's coming in from Afghanistan's Ministry of Defence.
39:02They've reported retaliatory strikes.
39:05Afghanistan is reporting retaliatory strikes and killing six Pakistan army soldiers in the Spinbaldak and Chaman sector.
39:16In the Spinbaldak, Chaman sector along the Durand line.
39:19Afghan forces claim they reserve the right to respond even further.
39:23Afghan Taliban-linked fighters reportedly attempt to cut the border fence near the Hashim post.
39:29Now, this is in the Chaman sector.
39:31They attempted to infiltrate and hit Pakistan from behind.
39:35I quickly want to cut across to my colleague Sandeep Unnithan, who joins us for more on this.
39:40Sandeep, this is huge.
39:42This flare-up has started once again.
39:44What details do we have of the flare-up, Sandeep?
39:46Well, you know, Gaurav, there's been an uneasy peace along the Durand line for several months now.
39:52Of course, Pakistan has other reasons to want a peaceful border with Afghanistan right now.
39:58Their entire focus of Pakistan is on the Iran issue, on the Iran border.
40:03But this seems to have played up again.
40:05And we've seen some very intense clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan earlier this year,
40:11before the February 28th bombing of Iran by the United States and Israel.
40:18They've been, you know, Afghanistan has, of course, struck back using drones.
40:22They've struck various targets inside Pakistan the first time they've done so.
40:27So, we've seen a very unusual, a very interesting phase of this war between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
40:35And now, it has flared up again, Gaurav.
40:38And this is something that will worry GHQ, Rawalpindi, very, very deeply as they're, you know,
40:46trying to play this role as peacemaker between Iran and the United States.
40:50Sandeep, keep tracking that story.
40:51I will come back to you for more.
40:53There's more, there's more that's coming in from Pakistan because Pakistan is crying tears of blood.
41:00And this time, over the Indus Waters Treaty that's been held in abeyance,
41:04Pakistan even rushed to the United States Nations Security Council.
41:08India's very firm blood and water cannot flow together.
41:13Details coming up.
41:15India had told Pakistan blood and water cannot flow together.
41:21Pakistan must choose terror or peace with India.
41:26And Pakistan now is crying tears of blood and literally over the Indus Waters Treaty being held in abeyance.
41:34Pakistan's Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, has said India is using water as a weapon,
41:40saying it is Pakistan's red line.
41:43Pakistan's envoy to the United Nations, Iftikar Ahmed, urged the UN Security Council to intervene.
41:49He claimed there was a potential human rights and security risk in Pakistan.
41:56Pakistan's President, Asif Ali Zardari, he's called India's move a deliberate violation of the Indus Waters Treaty.
42:04Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shabazz Sharif, earlier claimed Pakistan will not allow even one drop of its water to be taken.
42:12India remains firm blood and water cannot flow together.
42:19Pakistan must choose either it remains a state sponsor of radical Islamist terror that bleeds India and has been bleeding
42:27India for decades.
42:29It should stop that, take action against terrorists and then Indus Waters Treaty, there's no need to hold it in
42:35abeyance.
42:37India put the treaty in abeyance in April 2025 after the Pehalgaam terror attack.
42:42India initiated a three-step plan to maximize water utilization and that is just India's share of the water.
42:48And the impact is being felt in Pakistan.
42:51Now, data indicates, data, incidentally, I'll tell you more about the data that Pakistan is no longer getting and how
42:56it impacts them.
42:57So, official data indicates 20% drop in river flows in key regions that affect Pakistan's Punjab province and Sindh
43:05province.
43:05Now, agriculture in Pakistan, which depends extensively on the Indus Water Basin for nearly 80% of irrigation, that's been
43:14hit in Pakistan.
43:15Cotton production in Pakistan is down by about 30% and these are their figures, their statistics.
43:20It's down by 30%. Wheat and maize production is also declining in Pakistan.
43:25Pakistani officials say flood and water mismanagement in their country.
43:30It's worsened because they claim that they're not getting timely data.
43:35They're not getting warning of growing risk to food security and livelihood.
43:40Incidentally, each time there was a flood warning on humanitarian grounds,
43:44India gave them information that they may like to move people to safer areas.
43:49Now, joining me on this special broadcast is Ambassador Yash Sinha.
43:53Ambassador Yash Sinha is a former Indian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom and to Bangladesh.
44:00He's been the head of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran desk.
44:04He's been a councillor at the Indian High Commission in Islamabad.
44:08He knows Pakistan like the back of his hand.
44:11And he joins us on this special broadcast.
44:14Ambassador, welcome.
44:15What do you make of Pakistan's tears of blood now when it's realising the outcome of Indus Water's treaty being
44:25held in advance after the Pahlkam terror attack?
44:30Gaurav, you know, there is this adage that empty vessels make the maximum sound.
44:36So Pakistan is bleeding or sort of, for whatever it's worth, trying to extract whatever mileage it can from its
44:46membership, non-permanent.
44:48It's a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council.
44:52And of course, their information minister, as you know, Mr. Tarar, has been known to be a bit of a
45:00motobout.
45:00But having said that, the fact is very clear that in 1960, when the Indus Water Treaty was signed, it
45:08was signed in good faith on a presumption that both the countries would have good neighbourly relations and would live
45:16peacefully.
45:17Pakistan has violated every provision of bilateral agreements and international agreements since then.
45:26And I think as far as what happened in Pahlkam last year, exactly a year ago, we are quite aware
45:32of the insidious nature of the Pakistani state.
45:37And I think emboldened by the fact that its field marshal, a self-appointed field marshal, is now their favourite
45:44field marshal,
45:45they feel that they can keep raising these issues in the UN and international forum.
45:52But they don't realise that unless their behaviour changes, India will keep the treaty in abeyance.
46:00Mind you, India has not abrogated the treaty.
46:04India has not suspended the treaty.
46:06India has held it in abeyance.
46:08And for that matter, as far as I know, India has not blocked any waters due to Pakistan from the
46:15western rivers,
46:16which is the Jhelum, Chenab and the Indus.
46:20Yes, but as far as the eastern rivers are concerned, they are very much for our use.
46:26So I think we will utilise them to the best of our capability.
46:30And India has told Pakistan, as far as terror is concerned, take action against India-centric terror,
46:38create that environment for talks.
46:40Perhaps Indus Waters Treaty will not be held in abeyance.
46:42But in your view, sir, and you understand Pakistan like the back of your hand,
46:47you've served there, you've headed the Pakistan desk,
46:49you've handled the Indus Waters Treaty in the past when they took it to the international court, sir.
46:54I want to understand from you, has Pakistan lifted a little finger against India-centric military terror complex?
47:02No, not at all.
47:03In fact, even the provisions of the treaty, India had officially approached Pakistan,
47:09if I remember, two years ago and even earlier, wanting to renegotiate certain parts of the treaty.
47:16There was a deadly silence from Pakistan.
47:19There was nothing that came from them.
47:21And as you mentioned, I was at The Hague on two occasions as part of the Indian delegation
47:28that Pakistan took for arbitration on the Kishin Ganga hydroelectric project on the Kishin Ganga River.
47:38So I think Pakistan continues to obstruct any project on the western rivers
47:44where India has a right to non-consumptive users, to agriculture for generation of electricity,
47:51not storage as such.
47:53But Pakistan creates obstructions.
47:55You know, the treaty has three levels of dispute resolution.
48:00One is the Indus Water Commission, the first level.
48:03The second is the neutral expert.
48:05And the third is arbitration.
48:08Now, the latest rounds that Father Kishin Ganga is concerned,
48:11we've had this absurd situation where a neutral expert and a court of arbitration
48:18are examining the same issue, which is not provided for in the treaty.
48:23And we actually protested.
48:26But after the Pahlgahm attack, we have decided not to cooperate with any procedures under the treaty
48:33since we've held it in abeyance.
48:37So this brings me to my next question, sir.
48:39Pakistan has approached the United Nations Security Council right now
48:42about the Indus Waters Treaty being held in abeyance.
48:46Does India holding the treaty in abeyance stand scrutiny in international bodies?
48:53Well, you see, as far as the UN Security Council is concerned,
48:57it was not really involved with the World Bank,
48:59under whose ages the agreement was signed.
49:02And that, as I said, the agreement in 1960 was signed in good faith.
49:08And that faith has obviously been broken repeatedly by Pakistan.
49:12So when we hold it in abeyance, we are still in many ways observing provisions of the treaty.
49:19We are not, for instance, denying any water to Pakistan that it's due on the western rivers.
49:25And we are proceeding with building projects, run-of-the-river projects on the western rivers,
49:31which is permitted under the treaty.
49:34So I think Pakistan really, till now, has no grouse.
49:37The only, perhaps, perhaps what affects them is that they are not getting any data from India
49:45as far as the river flows are concerned.
49:47And there are no meetings of the Indus Water Commission.
49:51You know, the large-hearted country that we are, in good faith,
49:54flood data was given to them, not as part of Indus Waters Treaty,
49:58but as a goodwill gesture.
49:59But the last 30 seconds I have on this part of the show, sir,
50:02some analysts have argued that holding this treaty in abeyance
50:06has internationalized the water issue and it could isolate India globally.
50:12Would you agree with this?
50:14Or does this actually enable India to highlight Pakistan's real face
50:19as a state sponsor of radical Islamist terror globally?
50:24You know, we are now a confident nation.
50:27We shouldn't bother about so-called internationalization, etc.
50:31The IWT has been held in abeyance for a certain reason.
50:35The whole world knows that.
50:37We've explained to the international community.
50:39And if Pakistan wants to agitate the issues wherever it wants to,
50:44it can go ahead and do whatever it wants.
50:47As far as India is concerned, we expect good behavior from Pakistan.
50:51It must eschew all forms of terrorism, cross-border terrorism.
50:57And then we will see what we can do together as far as the treaty is concerned.
51:03But till then, Pakistan has acted in bad faith.
51:06In fact, since it's acted in bad faith, even the Vienna Convention on Treaties
51:11has provisions of, you know, annulling or at least holding an abeyance
51:17or suspending provisions of bilateral treaties.
51:19So I think there is a whole argument here that Pakistan can pursue.
51:24It will be futile, in my opinion.
51:26I think a better course of action would be stop, turn off the faucet of terrorism, cooperate with India.
51:34And then, of course, we can go ahead and implement all the provisions of the treaty satisfactorily.
51:41And perhaps I hope we renegotiate the treaty and look after India's interests better,
51:46which unfortunately wasn't done originally.
51:48But as always, Ambassador Sina, for joining me here on India Today, many thanks.
51:53Now, the bowl is in Pakistan's court.
51:57Pakistan needs to choose.
51:58It wants to continue spreading radical Islamist terror in India.
52:02Or it wants water for its farmers.
52:06We will track that story very closely.
52:08That is all I have for you on this special broadcast.
52:10Many thanks for watching.
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