- 1 hour ago
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump held a forty-minute phone conversation regarding the West Asia crisis and the necessity of a ceasefire.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching India First. I'm Gaurav Savant. News just coming in.
00:04Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the US President Donald Trump, they've had a 40-minute long conversation.
00:11This is the first conversation the two have had once since the ceasefire came into effect.
00:19News agency PTI has just put out this report.
00:22Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump hold a nearly 40-minute long phone conversation.
00:30The situation in West Asia remains extremely precarious even as we speak.
00:37The United States has enforced a blockade in the Gulf of Oman right outside the Persian Gulf, right outside the
00:46Strait of Hormuz.
00:47There are some reports that seem to indicate that some ships they tried to cross, they crossed the Strait of
00:54Hormuz, came into the Gulf of Oman.
00:56There is one report that seems to indicate as soon as the ships came out, they were challenged and at
01:02least one has returned for India.
01:06The Strait of Hormuz is extremely important given the critical requirement for LPG and of course crude oil imports from
01:16countries in the region, the eight GCC countries in the region.
01:20I quickly want to cut across to India Today's Foreign Affairs editor Geeta Mohan who joins us for more on
01:24the story.
01:25Geeta, the first conversation since the ceasefire, second since the conflict started.
01:30What details do we have?
01:32Well, right now, Gaurav, these are just the first breaking news that's just coming in.
01:37All we know is that it's a 40-minute conversation that took place and yes, the focus of the conversation
01:43was the West Asia crisis as well.
01:47But what in terms of the nitty-gritties and details that were discussed and what is the role that maybe
01:53President Trump would want India to play is something we still need and we still await details of.
02:00But India is a very important country in this very region, Gaurav, and can play a very important role.
02:06Having said that, is it just about that or does it also include the issues of trade and forward movement
02:16in ties between India and the United States of America?
02:18I'm sure all issues within the U.S.-India relations ambit must have come about because it was a 40-minute
02:26long conversation.
02:27But the focus certainly would have been West Asia crisis and the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is shut.
02:35There are few countries that are directly engaged and have great relations with Iran, India being one of them.
02:41And this naval blockade is not sustainable beyond a certain point, Gaurav.
02:46So, yes, they would require partners who are willing to ensure that there is some off-ramp so that commercial
02:54vessels start passing through the Strait of Hormuz without a problem.
02:59Now, as far as the situation in West Asia is concerned, and especially regarding the blockade,
03:03Gita, stay with me because there are some reports that seem to indicate that a couple of dark fleet ships,
03:10they tried to cross over, but apparently at least one or two have gone back.
03:16I want to quickly bring in editor Open Source Intelligence, Ankit Kumar, who joins us for more on this.
03:22Ankit, since the blockade came into effect, while we will talk about, you know, China-U.S. tensions rising because
03:30of the American blockade,
03:32but what's the current situation? I believe some ships tried to cross. Did they succeed?
03:37Well, Gaurav, since the blockade came into effect, we have seen at least 14 vessels trying to cross the Strait.
03:45Now, there is some misinformed commentary that is going on with regard to the crossing of the Strait,
03:52and that is largely due to under-appreciation of the fact that time travels differently in water.
03:57Unlike land and air, it travels very slowly.
04:02So what happens is that although China-linked sanctions vessels managed to cross the area which is largely in,
04:10let's say, in control of Iran, the area surrounding the Kashm and Larak Island,
04:15there is still no vessel that we have been able to track which has managed to cross into the Gulf
04:22of Oman.
04:22What it means is that no vessel, Iranian or not, has managed to cross either in Arabian Sea or in
04:30Gulf of Iran.
04:31What the U.S. Navy can do, Gaurav, is that they can wait 24 hours extra.
04:36They can give themselves time.
04:37They don't need to enter the Strait of Hormuz, the part of Larak Island and Kashm Island.
04:43They can wait there for additional 12 or 24 hours.
04:46And once the vessels come into the Gulf of Oman or Arabian Sea, they can tell the vessels to go
04:53back.
04:54And we have seen that happening at least in two or three cases.
04:57In fact, that's one of the reports that just came in that while the ship managed to cross the Strait
05:02of Hormuz,
05:03but as it came in the Gulf of Oman, it was turned back.
05:07Siddharth, this conversation that PTI is reporting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump,
05:15especially at this time, would be extremely crucial,
05:18especially after some report the total collapse of talks in Pakistan
05:24and some reporting that at least some forward movement was made.
05:28So, would President Trump be sharing details of the progress made and the road ahead?
05:34Well, very clearly, this is an extremely significant conversation by any stretch of imagination.
05:39The world, particularly its energy security, is paramount concern.
05:44And obviously, a 40-minute conversation of this kind would have dwelt on multiple points.
05:49We cannot speculate on what that would be.
05:51But if we were to only focus on energy security and oil transit,
05:57one is the U.S. blockade.
05:59And very clearly, as we have been saying, and the headline is that despite all its fearsome armada of destroyers
06:06and other naval assets, one Chinese ship has effectively, brazenly, defied the blockade by the United States.
06:14So, it raises a lot of questions on the intent.
06:17Therefore, for India as one of the largest consumers of West Asian energy,
06:21I imagine this conversation would have focused on supplies.
06:25Remember, there is also the U.S. overhang, which I personally believe will not be something that India will now
06:32accept in this present situation,
06:33which is that so-called temporary waiver on Russian crude oil.
06:37I imagine we might have told the United States very clearly that we will continue to buy Russian oil
06:43because there is practically no alternative, especially on account of this enforced blockade by the United States.
06:49There are multiple other areas of conversation.
06:52But honestly, I think at this point of time, we will perhaps have to wait for a customary Trump social
07:01media post to get more details.
07:04And of course, India's official response and comment on this matter is also awaited.
07:10Oh, absolutely.
07:11Geeta, we are still waiting to hear from the Ministry of External Affairs or to see what President Trump puts
07:16out either on Truth Social or the White House.
07:18Geeta, stay with me.
07:20There's more information that's coming in.
07:22And these are reports that are coming in from Pakistan that seem to indicate that Islamabad has now proposed a
07:28second round of talks
07:29between the U.S. and Iran again in Pakistan.
07:33And this even as the Iranian media has claimed that there is no agreement whatsoever so far on the next
07:40round of dialogue.
07:42The first round of dialogue that took place last weekend, both sides failed to find middle ground.
07:50Such was the vast difference in the perception of the two sides.
07:54However, both Iran and the U.S., including U.S. President Donald Trump, have indicated that talks weren't bad.
08:02There are some reports that seem to indicate that could possibly be round two.
08:08And Pakistan has proposed round two also takes place in Pakistan.
08:12I want to bring in our Foreign Affairs Editor, Geeta Mohan, once again into this conversation.
08:16Geeta, some reports from Pakistan seem to indicate that Pakistan is now trying to make this into a wider conversation.
08:24Yes, Iran and the United States of America, but they're also seeking the presence of countries like Saudi Arabia,
08:33either in the same room or at the same venue, to make it a larger conversation for peace to prevail
08:40in West Asia.
08:41What more do we know?
08:42Well, even during the indirect talks, the first round in Islamabad that took place,
08:48Gaurav, Saudi Foreign Finance Minister, was in Islamabad.
08:52There were conversations that were happening on the sidelines of the big talk between U.S. and Iran as well.
08:58So, yes, the Saudis would want to be in the room, especially because they have a defense agreement,
09:03especially because Pakistan has already sent a batch of its troops to Riyadh, to Saudi Arabia.
09:11And especially because if Saudi should invoke that agreement,
09:15then Pakistan will have to defend Saudi and Saudi interests.
09:20Therefore, there is a lot of interest for Saudi Arabia to be in the room,
09:24or at least at the venue where the conversations are taking place.
09:28Having said that, I think it will be more broad-based than just one country.
09:32Gaurav, we are looking at conversations that Islamabad has had with other countries, including the UAE,
09:39and also the fact that there is a separate conversation that is taking place between Russia and China
09:44on the issue at hand, on the situation at hand over here.
09:49So, again, we will have to wait and see whether it is going to be Islamabad or not.
09:53But, yes, the talks in the first round were inconclusive,
09:56but did not mean that the two sides had taken up arms again, that the war is on a halt,
10:03which does mean that both sides do want to look at negotiations and give diplomacy another chance.
10:09Apart from Islamabad, we do know that Cairo also had suggested Egypt as the next venue for talks between America
10:18and Iran.
10:19We do not really know exactly whether if Iran would be willing to travel to Egypt very close to Israel,
10:25with the leadership going over there.
10:27In all probability, it is looking like Islamabad.
10:30Moscow also had made a pitch.
10:32It could very well be a country that's friendly or at least where Iranians feel safe.
10:39Okay.
10:40Ankit, if we look at, you know, open source information and intelligence that's coming in,
10:47U.S. ships are there by some accounts that are between 15 to 20 ships in the Gulf of Oman
10:53and around U.S.'s Tripoli, the amphibious landing craft being one of them.
10:59What more do we know about the blockade ships attempting to cross
11:03and especially either the Dark Fleet, the Chinese-flagged ships,
11:08or ships that are carrying crude pound for China?
11:12And then, again, there's a caveat.
11:14Americans are saying that there isn't a blanket ban.
11:16There's only a restriction on ships that are exiting ports of Iran or going to ports of Iran.
11:24That's the only restriction.
11:26But what about other ships?
11:28So, two things, Gaurav.
11:29First, while everybody is so much focused on straight-off Hormuz,
11:35we tracked, earlier today, we tracked a flight which belonged to the same airlines,
11:41same Iranian airlines, which carried the diplomats, Iranian diplomats, to Islamabad last week.
11:47And you know where it landed?
11:49It landed in Colombo earlier today.
11:52What it means is, and it could be seen as a confidence-building measure,
11:56what it means is that there are still more than 250 Iranian sailors in Colombo.
12:0232 from Iris Dana who have been rescued and 230 from the other support ship.
12:08These are all Iranian sailors, Navy sailors.
12:12Now, that could not have happened without a green signal from the U.S.
12:17So, this can be seen.
12:19And the call sign, remember, Gaurav?
12:20Call sign was Iran 9, reserved for high dignitaries of the Iranian government.
12:26Coming back to your straight-off Hormuz question, Gaurav,
12:28you know, there are multiple theories on termination of wars.
12:31One that I like is from a book called Causes of War by Jeffrey Planey.
12:36He says that all wars usually end when the two sides, the fighting nations, agree on their relative strength.
12:46Clearly, before February 28, Iran and U.S. did not agree on their relative strength.
12:52And the thing that changed the equation was straight-off Hormuz.
12:55Nobody realized Iran's capability of choking the global supply chain.
13:01And what we have seen as far as open source, from the open source data is that…
13:05Okay, give me a moment, information that's coming in.
13:08It was the American president who called Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
13:13Prime Minister Narendra Modi has put out a post on social media platform to say,
13:18received a call from my friend, President Donald Trump.
13:21We reviewed the substantial progress achieved in our bilateral cooperation in various sectors.
13:28We are committed to further strengthening our comprehensive global strategic partnership in all areas.
13:34We also discussed the situation in West Asia and stressed on the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open
13:41and secure.
13:43So, the Prime Minister has confirmed the conversation.
13:47It was a call from the American president to the Indian Prime Minister.
13:51And Geetha, the Prime Minister, keeping the President of the United States, keeping the Prime Minister abreast with developments at
14:00his end first,
14:01as discussions then went on to the bilateral cooperation and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
14:07Is America also seeking Indian cooperation?
14:10There are multiple Indian Navy ships that are escorting Indian ships back from the Gulf of Oman already.
14:16Well, there is certainly cooperation and partnership that America would be looking at India for,
14:23but given that India is one of the biggest powers in this entire region and has the wherewithal and means
14:29to safely escort ships from point A to point B.
14:35But having said that, at this point in time, we have our own vessel stuck in the Strait because of
14:42the naval blockade.
14:43So, the conversation could not have been one way.
14:46It must have been two way where the naval blockade does not help India and Indian interests as well.
14:52Like I said earlier, the conversation would have focused on bilateral and regional issues.
14:57So, they did speak about and review the substantial progress both sides have made.
15:01But the focus also has been on ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz opens up or reopens.
15:07So, either way, whether it's Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz or the naval blockade by America,
15:17which is not allowing any ship to move out of the Strait, because even through the blockade,
15:21even through the Strait being shut, Indian ships were being allowed out.
15:26So, this naval blockade has cost India more than any other country, Gaurav.
15:30It's actually a double whammy for India, Siddharth.
15:33The manner in which Indian ships, and I believe you reported 15 Indian ships, Indian flag ships are still there.
15:41But there are multiple other ships that are also bound for India that remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.
15:58Siddharth.
15:59We have no updates in the last 24 hours of whether any of those ships have managed to exit.
16:05Meanwhile, there's another piece of data that's one hour or thereabouts old,
16:10which says that from 14 ships that had transited earlier, day before,
16:18that number after the U.S. blockade announcement has fallen to six.
16:22Now, this could possibly include this number of six, that Chinese ship that defied the blockade.
16:29So, very clearly, a significant number of Indian ships, tankers, are still in the Strait of Hormuz,
16:38because even if we were to assume that the remaining five, by this account, are all Indian,
16:44there are still 10 ships stuck.
16:45So, obviously, the last line of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's tweet, which we just referred to,
16:51very clearly is an important indication as to what could have been brought up as a priority item.
16:58And it very clearly says, according to Prime Minister's tweet that we discussed,
17:03and stressed the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and secure.
17:09So, here the Prime Minister of India is calling that the Strait of Hormuz should be opened up,
17:14obviously, with security, because if we go by these numbers,
17:19between 10 or possibly all 15 Indian tankers at this point of time are presently in Hormuz,
17:27and it would be a priority for us to get all of that out.
17:30Remember that much of the oil that was in transit before the outbreak of this West Asian war,
17:36and some other small amounts, they will now reach and be consumed very soon.
17:43And if this were to continue, I think a moment of reckoning by this month end,
17:47for the global economy, on account of energy scarcity, will be upon everyone.
17:53Because right now, Ankit, the amount of pressure that's being mounted on Iran,
17:59and also on the United States,
18:01by countries that are impacted by the Strait of Hormuz being shut,
18:05is immense.
18:07One report seemed to indicate that the loss to Iran is about $435 million a day,
18:15with the American blockade keeping the Strait of Hormuz shut.
18:18But overall, look at the loss to countries like Japan,
18:23how severely they are impacted,
18:25South Korea, China, India,
18:27European countries, the French, the British,
18:30they're all making multiple efforts that peaceful means should be used to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
18:35But almost everybody is saying, open the Strait of Hormuz.
18:38Would Iran be under pressure?
18:40One conversation that we tend to overlook,
18:42especially in the Western conversation, Gaurav,
18:44is especially when India, the leaders of India and America talk about,
18:48people think that India is buying Iranian-sanctioned oil,
18:51or Russian-sanctioned oil.
18:52What they don't discuss is that 100% of oil for Nepal, Bhutan, goes from India.
19:01And that supply has not stopped.
19:03Not just that, a significant portion of oil supplies this month,
19:08during the war, two countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka went from India.
19:13So all those matters.
19:15When we discuss energy security of the region,
19:18India has a major role to play because of its refining capabilities.
19:22So I'm pretty sure when leaders of the U.S. and India talk,
19:27the one topic that will dominate is the energy security of not just India,
19:32but all these countries, especially the landlocked countries like Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh,
19:36all these countries.
19:37And of course, Geeta, if I can quickly bring you in,
19:42Pakistan that wants to host even the next round of talks,
19:45there were some reports that seem to indicate the acute shortage both of gas and oil in Pakistan.
19:53And there were reports of Lahore being without electricity and planned load shedding in Lahore
20:00and several other parts of Pakistan.
20:01How bad is your situation there?
20:03What are you picking up?
20:04Well, from what I hear, it is pretty dire in terms of the energy crisis that Pakistan is facing.
20:11In fact, at the very beginning of the war itself, Gaurav,
20:15there were provinces in Pakistan who had started,
20:19one, trying to save on the reserves that they have.
20:23Secondly, ensuring that the public then starts,
20:28that energy in terms of gas and oil is actually rationed to the public.
20:34So they were asked to take public transport more.
20:37They were asked to avoid certain things that required energy usage.
20:44So they have been on this for a very long time, ever since the war started,
20:49because unlike India, the reserves that Pakistan has is far lesser.
20:55So they had to prepare themselves should this war continue for a longer period.
21:00And it indeed has continued for a longer period.
21:03So they are feeling the shortage acutely in many parts of Pakistan.
21:09Geetha and Ankit, for the moment, many thanks for joining me.
21:11Siddharth, stay with me as we talk more about the conflict,
21:15the blockade and the financial aspect on Iran, on China, on India and the rest of the world.
21:24Because this U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is leading to a sharp spike in tensions between the
21:29U.S. and China.
21:31The U.S. Navy blockade in the Gulf of Oman and the threat to target any ship coming from or
21:36going to any port in Iran has China up in arms.
21:40Beijing has strongly objected to the U.S. blockade, calling it dangerous and irresponsible.
21:46An act that will further inflame tensions in the region.
21:51In fact, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Sheikh Khalid bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nayan,
21:59the visiting Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi,
22:01that international rule of law must be upheld for peace and stability to prevail.
22:07In Middle East, rule of law cannot be used when convenient and discarded when not.
22:14Unquote.
22:15So, this may be a conversation with UAE, but the message was for Washington, D.C., for USA.
22:24China insists the blockade risks undermining the already extremely fragile ceasefire.
22:30Beijing has said it will come forward to ease tensions.
22:33In fact, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, he's in Beijing and the two big powers,
22:39China and Russia, are working on a strategy to ease tensions in the region.
22:44The Chinese Foreign Office has dismissed U.S. President Donald Trump's warnings on reports that China is supplying weapons to
22:52Iran,
22:52saying these reports are completely made up.
22:55Both China and Russia have called for renewed focus on general direction of dialogue and peace talks.
23:02Take practical action to promote the easing of regional situation and restore normal traffic as soon as possible.
23:09This is what the Foreign Office said.
23:10Now, I just want to explain to you.
23:13Now, usually when you hear of conflict, take for example, a conflict between Lebanon and Israel,
23:19they share a border, or Russia and Ukraine, they share a border, or Iran and Israel, they may not share
23:25a border,
23:25but it's just about 1,600-odd kilometers apart, but there is traditional animosity.
23:30The U.S. and China are separated by the world's largest Pacific Ocean
23:37and is seeing a massive spike in tension over a very narrow strait of Hormuz.
23:42So, the two capitals, Washington, D.C. and Beijing, they're actually 11,150 kilometers apart,
23:52but the spike in tensions is over a crossing that's barely 33 kilometers wide, the strait of Hormuz.
23:59And the tension is ships going to and coming from the eight ports of Iran.
24:05So, after the U.S. announced a blockade, China has warned U.S. not to target bilateral arrangements that Beijing
24:13has with Tehran.
24:15So far, the information is about five ships, they managed to cross the strait since the announcement of the blockade.
24:22The ships that have passed or are currently in transit along the strait,
24:27according to information in public domain, is Christiana.
24:31Now, Christiana is a Liberia-flagged cargo ship.
24:34It departed from Bandar Imam Khamenei and that's Iran.
24:38It exited the Persian Gulf through the strait, apparently, just before the deadline kicked in,
24:44but it hasn't crossed the area completely, according to one report.
24:49Then, Elpis is a methanol carrier, was at Busheher, again a port in Iran,
24:55traversed the strait around the time that blockade started.
25:00This was previously under U.S. sanctions in Syria.
25:04The third ship that we are talking about is Murali-Kishan, formerly MKA.
25:10This is an oil tanker.
25:11It came from Fujairah, UAE, entered the Persian Gulf via the strait,
25:16previously sanctioned for carrying Iranian and Russian oil,
25:20but this time, since it's not from an Iranian port, perhaps will not be challenged.
25:26Then, there's Manali.
25:28Manali is a Panama-flagged bulk carrier, exited the Persian Gulf through the strait.
25:32No recent Iran link or sanctions reported and that is why analysts argue will not have a problem.
25:39Then, there's Rit Stari, formerly full-starved.
25:43Oil product tanker, linked to China, initially turned back
25:47and then later passed through the strait and exited the Gulf successfully.
25:53Previously, this ship was blacklisted by the U.S. Treasury.
25:56U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday threatened to impose 50% tariffs on China
26:02after a report suggested that Beijing was preparing to deliver a shipment of new air defence systems to Iran.
26:09China has called such reports baseless, but China has a word of advice
26:15for the U.S. President and for the United States of America.
26:18Listen in.
26:24Since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran, fuel prices have surged sharply and remained at elevated levels,
26:30while the cost of oil transportation has risen significantly.
26:33These factors are being transmitted through supply chains,
26:37pushing up the cost of global commodity production and transportation.
26:40Global goods trade is expected to see a significant decline.
26:43The World Trade Organization's latest global trade outlook and statistics
26:48has substantially revised downwards its forecast for the growth rate of global goods trade volume.
26:59Our statistical data also shows that China's imports and exports with the Middle East region
27:03in March shifted from year-on-year growth in the first two months to a decline.
27:09China has consistently advocated resolving disputes through political and diplomatic means
27:14and has been actively committed to promoting peace and facilitating reconciliation.
27:20We hope that all parties can work together to push for an early de-escalation of the situation
27:25and restore peace and stability in the Strait region and the Middle East.
27:33So, China clearly accusing the U.S. of dangerous and irresponsible escalation
27:39with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
27:41China wants their ships to pass through the Strait unhindered.
27:45Now, will this lead to further escalation or perhaps even a clash with the United States?
27:49What are options?
27:50What happens next?
27:51Will we see an expansion of this conflict or an extension of the ceasefire?
27:54Joining me on India first is Ambassador Daniel Frye, former U.S. Ambassador
27:59and a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council.
28:03Also with me is Professor Reza Khanzadeh, a professor of Middle East Islam and Politics
28:09at the George Mason University.
28:11Welcome.
28:13Ambassador Frye, your appreciation, sir, China calling U.S. actions of blockade dangerous and irresponsible.
28:21China imports close to 1.5 million barrels a day of Iranian crude.
28:26Will the U.S. blockade lead to rising tensions, perhaps even a clash between U.S. and China?
28:33What happens if a Chinese-bound ship is crossing and the U.S. were to stop it?
28:40Well, the Chinese are poorly placed to lecture the United States on respect for the law of the sea,
28:51considering Chinese actions in the South China Sea and its claiming of territorial waters
28:59and general aggression against other countries.
29:01So, they are not on strong ground, claiming the mantle of the rule of law.
29:10That said, it seems to me the U.S. is looking for leverage against Iran,
29:19seeking some kind of negotiated solution.
29:22I don't think the U.S. position is any longer a demand for Iranian surrender, which it's not going to
29:31achieve.
29:32The latest reports suggest that, ironically enough, the U.S. is seeking some kind of an arrangement with Iran,
29:42which could be similar to the Iran nuclear deal, the so-called JCPOA,
29:49negotiated during the Obama administration, hopefully better than that deal,
29:54but some negotiated settlement.
29:57The Iranians have not ruled this out.
30:00There are, I believe, plans or at least discussions of plans for further negotiations.
30:08So, the U.S. talk of blockade of the Strait of Hormuz needs to be seen in this context.
30:17Secondly, the U.S. position is that the Strait of Hormuz should be free for all or closed for all.
30:27Now, in practice, this will be more complicated, but that is a defensible position.
30:33The U.S. is trying to seek leverage with the ultimate objective of reopening the Strait.
30:40Will it get that leverage? Will Iran, you know, let some ships cross?
30:47Professor Khanzadeh, 80 to 90 percent of Iranian crude exports is to China.
30:52The blockade is meant to hurt Iran and compel it to open the Strait for all.
30:59The reported losses to Iran are close to $435 million a day.
31:04Will this put pressure on Iran to open the Strait?
31:07No.
31:09I don't believe so.
31:11We have to take into consideration that this regime, their most important, you know, objective is their own survival.
31:22So, for them, any type of compromise or any type of sign that shows a willingness to, you know, concede
31:36to Trump's demands or to concede to global demands when it comes to the Strait,
31:41it, in the psychology of the Strait, in the Strait, in the Strait, in the Strait, in the Strait area,
31:43it shows it as a sign of weakness and then it can open up future types of conflicts and also
31:52future types of demands from either Washington or Europe or whatever the case may be to where this regime will
31:58see itself in the years to come,
32:01continuously having to, you know, capitulate and to compromise on certain aspects of its policies
32:09that it seems or that it sees important to its own, you know, to its own existence. So when it
32:16comes to the straight or even when it comes to these, you know, negotiations, while we see
32:20positive signs that neither side is saying that they are walking away from the table, so to speak,
32:27or we're seeing positive signs that, you know, Trump is saying that they want a 20-year
32:32moratorium on, you know, Iran's nuclear program, while Iran is saying five years. From the Iran
32:38perspective, from this regime's perspective, they are just buying themselves time so they can regroup
32:43and re-strength their, you know, military for the next conflict. Because from this regime's
32:49perspective, they're seeing this two-week ceasefire. They're seeing this, you know, level of,
32:55you know, negotiations being prolonged and extended as an opportunity for them to just
33:02re-strengthen and to, you know, reposition themselves for a future conflict. Because like
33:08I said, for this regime, there's only one of two options. They either continue to fight
33:12until they fall, or they continue to fight until the United States and Israel get tired of fighting
33:18and realize that they just need to leave this country alone and future conflicts is just going
33:23to be more devastating for the global economy.
33:26Future conflict, it's not if but when is your reading, Siddharth. But if Iran is unable to export
33:35the oil and it continues to pump, the storage is finite, what happens then? Because beyond a week
33:43or two, will there not be consequences, adverse consequences for Iran, Siddharth?
33:49Those adverse consequences are not just playing out for Iran, Agorov, just a digression.
33:55Let's take one example. Spain has just announced a release of four days more of crude oil from its strategic
34:04reserves.
34:04And it has just 8.3 days of reserves left. And this is going to be something that will play
34:10out
34:11across the rest of the world, if this were to worsen. As of now, it's very clear that this is
34:17an effective blockade, minus the China exception. But China has been getting exceptions from the
34:23United States, even on tariffs, for example, if you recall. So, the rest of the world is going to pay
34:28a price. Now, to your question on what happens to Iran, flip it around. If Iran is not able to
34:34earn
34:34cash from its exports and the most substantial revenue generator for the Iranian economy has been
34:42its crude oil exports. If it is not able to earn cash and many of its global assets holdings across
34:50the world have been frozen, how does it pay for its imports? So, even imports will collapse and that
34:57will have second round consequences for exporting nations. Just for an example, many of… much of
35:03their rice comes from… Basmati comes from India, just as an example. So, the Iranian economy and the
35:09downside to it is actually very, very difficult to predict because there isn't a real-world scenario
35:17that I can at least recall in the recent past of such an unprecedented cash stoppage, blockage for
35:25economy of the size of Iran. So, let me bring an ambassador right into this conversation once again.
35:30Ambassador, Professor Khanzadeh is clear that it's not if but when fighting resumes. Is that also your
35:39reading that whether it's within two weeks of the ceasefire or maybe a couple of months later,
35:46conflict will resume? I'm not certain that military action will resume. The war is not popular in the
35:59United States. I don't know that the United States can actually, using only air power, destroy Iran's military
36:10potential. And on some level, Trump may realize this. I think the US and Iran both are searching for
36:19leverage. Both realize that some negotiated solution is more likely than not. And in the longer run,
36:29don't forget that the wild card here is that the Iranian regime is not popular in Iran. It was only
36:37a
36:37couple of months ago that we saw massive sustained demonstrations against the regime that were
36:42drowned in blood. And that was put down so harshly. So, give me another 30 seconds. And before I bring
36:48in Professor Khanzadeh, Ambassador, what are the options for the United States? Can and will it stop
36:56crude bound for China, for example, on the blockade aspect? And do you agree with some analysts who say
37:02that America has a bigger game plan? And the game plan is to stop or choke energy supplies to China?
37:09First, it was Venezuela. Now, Iran.
37:13I think that some in the Trump administration like the idea of going around the world and crushing US
37:20adversaries. They did so successfully in Venezuela, at least successfully, at least so far. We'll see how
37:27this plays out. They're finding that not quite possible in Iran. I think that the best solution
37:34now for the United States, but also for the world, would be a negotiated solution, some kind of longer
37:41term cold war situation between the United States and Iran. And don't forget, as I said earlier, that
37:48the Iranian regime is not popular in Iran. And if the United States would consider a broader,
37:55more patient strategy, I think that would lead to a greater success than they search for a quick
38:01military victory. Would that take six months, a year, even longer? There are several reports on
38:08that account. But Professor Khanzadeh, what are Iran's options if oil supplies do not resume? Will Iran
38:15be cutting its nose to spite its face? Iran suffers. Gulf countries suffer. The region suffers, sir.
38:23Yeah, that is a valid point. And there are a lot of variables that are just unknown at the moment
38:28that
38:28we need to keep in consideration. But there's also another angle to this where
38:37the positive, I don't like using that word, but the positive of this regime is that there has been
38:46consistency with it, right? We have been forced to live with this regime for over 40 years, as opposed
38:53to the United States, where every four or eight years, we have a different president, and then
38:59therefore a different type of policy. You compare Obama with Trump. But with this regime, with the
39:04Islamic Republic, they've had 40 years to really prepare themselves for this moment. And they knew that
39:11at this moment was inevitable. Because they understand that they are not popular domestically,
39:17or regionally, or even internationally. They are considered, by most experts, as a pariah state.
39:23And I agree with everything the ambassador has said. But I would add a different layer of complexity,
39:30where from the US perspective, yes, you have November midterm elections coming up. You have the entire global
39:37world putting pressure on Trump, because of the economic pressures. But that plays to the advantage
39:43of Iran at the negotiating table. So even though, like you said, they have a finite number of space
39:48for their oil, Iran has been prepared for this, like I said, for decades. So they have enough money
39:57in foreign banks and assets. They have enough money saved up to where they can have a plan B and
40:03a plan C
40:04to avert any type of crisis, you know, domestically. But then also, because they are faced with a US
40:11administration who has midterm elections, who has all this pressure, Iran feels at the negotiating
40:16table, they have the upper hand. So they are very unwilling to budge or compromise, because they know
40:22for them, it's just a waiting game. They have to wait it out. The closer they get to November, the
40:26more
40:26desperate they think Trump is going to be to want to cut a deal. So they're not going to want
40:31to capitulate,
40:31or even to compromise. So that's where I think that tension is going to kind of stir up at a
40:36moment,
40:37to where we might see more conflict.
40:39Sadat, give me a moment, I'll just come to you. But let me take one question with Ambassador Frye.
40:44Ambassador, Russia has offered to help. Russia has offered to take control of the 450 kilograms
40:50of enriched uranium from Iran. Should that be acceptable to the US as a way forward? That offer was made
40:56even earlier
40:57by President Putin. It's just been reiterated by Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson.
41:04There are some in the Trump administration who might find that interesting. I think that the
41:10Russians are motivated by a desire to help the United States in Iran, in exchange for the United
41:18States turning away from Ukraine and allowing Putin to continue to conquer the nation. I think that's a
41:27that the U.S. are facing a possible defeat in Ukraine. I think that the U.S. should be helping
41:32Ukraine turn back the Russian war of national extermination. So I would not urge the Trump
41:44administration to accept such a Russian offer. I think that there may be a solution with Iran
41:51that could take place without the Russians. And again, a long-term sort of Cold War but stable
41:58standoff between the U.S. and Iran might be the best we could expect from the current situation.
42:04That could be attainable. But given the fact that the entire world is suffering and each day, Siddharth,
42:13increases costs for the region, for the wider region of Asia and the world, does the world have that kind
42:21of time or will the global economy go into tailspin?
42:26Well, very clearly, the International Monetary Fund and its latest assessment that's just come out
42:33isn't taking a very alarmist view. There is hope that there will be some sort of resolution and the
42:39problem will be contained. Very clearly, the Iranian economy is going to suffer further from this point.
42:45There can be no two ways about it, despite their estimated $100 billion of foreign assets. Remember,
42:53it's an economy that's under tremendous amount of sanctions. For an Iranian entity to even do normal
42:58trade, even prior to the war, was very, very difficult. For the globe, the rerouting of energy
43:07supplies is the biggest fundamental shift that is happening. Instead of buying from West Asia and
43:15relying on West Asian gas and oil, the world, pretty much every importer is now looking for alternatives.
43:21For example, for India, Angola has become one of our significant suppliers in the recent past.
43:28Oh, absolutely. Stay with me for a moment. There's more breaking news that's coming in.
43:32And this is perhaps a story of hope. Israel and Lebanon, they've started their talks in the United
43:40States of America. State Department is giving out this information. The dialogue is happening. The
43:48first direct conversation between Israel and Lebanon in over 30 years.
43:54U.S. Secretary of State Margot Rubio is hosting the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors and officials in
44:02Washington, D.C. for the first direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon since the two countries
44:11started fighting. And of course, the fighting that erupted once again with the Hezbollah targeting Israel on the
44:182nd of March after the 28th of February operations by Israel and the United States of America against Iran.
44:27I want to bring in Professor Khanzadeh to get his assessment of this dialogue between the government of
44:35Lebanon and Israel. How do you see this move forward, sir?
44:42Yeah, I have a bit of mixed, you know, mixed impressions of this of this talk because
44:51the two most vital, you know, actors when it comes to any type of peace between Lebanon and and, you
45:00know,
45:00Israel are not in these talks. They're not they're not involved in these talks. And that's obviously,
45:06you know, Hezbollah in Iran. Whatever type of agreement is made or whatever type of understanding
45:12is made between Israel and also the, you know, Lebanese government will be, you know, superficial at best.
45:20Because as, as, as, as we all know, with, you know, with, you know, with Hezbollah being,
45:26being inside Lebanon, that, that is considered a state within a state, their, you know, their,
45:32their, you know, military is, you know, arguably much, you know, much stronger, much more,
45:38you know, much more organized than, than, than the Lebanese, you know, army. So whatever type of
45:44agreement we can see or, you know, conversation, I think, I think this type of talk, it's, it's,
45:51it's the first, like you said, after, you know, after decades. So I don't expect any type of
45:55breakthrough agreement to happen within, you know, within one meeting.
45:59Oh, absolutely. And this is at the level of ambassadors and officials, but will this, you know,
46:05pave the way for perhaps a summit, you know, a trilateral summit, US, Lebanon, Israel, they sit,
46:12meet together and, you know, a, a more sustained offensive to isolate the Hezbollah. What is the,
46:20is, what is the Lebanese society like? Because aren't they also suffering the actions of Hezbollah?
46:25Israel says, we didn't target Lebanon on the 2nd of March. It's the Hezbollah that targeted us,
46:30and we are now responding. Yeah, you're absolutely, you're absolutely right. I believe, I believe that,
46:37that the vast majority of, of the Lebanese citizens see this as a positive sign. They've, they've been
46:44wanting to, to see their government stand up to Hezbollah and to find a way to end these types of
46:51conflicts where the, the most devastated, you know, demographic is, is the innocent population,
46:59you know, within, you know, within Lebanon. But again, there, even with that, there's still a strong,
47:05you know, number of citizens within, you know, within, you know, that they, they do support,
47:11you know, Hezbollah, not so much how and what Hezbollah does, but, you know, what they stand for.
47:16They, being able to stand up to a bully like Israel, being able to stand up to a bully like,
47:21like the United States, um, being able to, you know, support the Palestinian cause.
47:27So there could be a, you know, gray area within this where it's not so black and white, where either
47:33it's, we have to disarm Hezbollah or we don't. We'll track that story very closely. Professor Riza Khanzadeh
47:38and Ambassador Fryer and Siddharth for joining me here on this part of India today. Many thanks on India First.
47:49Big development in the Nashik TCS BPO alleged forced conversion case. The special investigation
47:55team says the number of targeted victims has risen to 12. There are more names that are likely to come
48:01forward. So far, nine employees have registered their complaints. So nine FIRs have been registered,
48:09including, uh, pertaining to serious charges of sexual assault, coercion under the pretext of marriage
48:16and hurting religious sentiments. Three more victims have been identified. Uh, the police are
48:22speaking to them. They are yet to file complaints citing social stigma and personal concerns. We get you more,
48:30um, um, in this report because this is an alleged conversion case. Investigators say there appears to be
48:37a pattern with the accused team leader and the HR executive, Nida Khan. Allegedly, they stand accused of
48:48harassing employees, making inappropriate advances and putting pressure on them to adopt their religious
48:55practices. Police have conducted an undercover operation inside the TCS BPO, uh, campus at Nashik.
49:04They've deployed women constables as staff to gather information and evidence. WhatsApp chats seem to
49:13indicate alleged coordination amongst the team leaders, amongst the accused. Forensic teams are now working
49:20to recover deleted messages. A possible international link involving a man named Imran believed to be
49:29connected to a wider conspiracy overseas is also currently under investigation. The main accused Nida Khan
49:37is absconding. Police have sought details from TCS and say more accused and more victims could emerge as the
49:47SIT widens the scope of this investigation. Divvesh Singh gets you more in this report.
49:59The largest IT services company in India. The flagship of the indubitable Tata Group. Known for its ethical,
50:08responsible standards. But a very different story unfolded around Tata Consultancy Services.
50:16TCS. On the 9th of April, six accused, many of them TCS team leaders and engineers, were arrested by
50:27Maharashtra police in Nashik after multiple women employees of the company alleged sexual harassment and
50:34attempts at religious conversion at the workplace by the team leaders.
50:40TCS. The police have formed a 12-member SIT under an ACP rank officer.
50:45TCS. Those arrested include Asif Ansari, Shafi Sheik, Shahrukh Qureshi,
51:10Raza Meman and Tosi Fattar. Another employee, Ashwini Chainani, the operations head and also part of the
51:18company's anti-harassment Posh panel, was also arrested. Reports say the police is also on the
51:24hunt for another HR executive.
51:27In the FIRs, the allegations are that TCS employees molested the women and tried to convert them.
51:33There are also allegations of sexual exploitation and mental harassment.
51:38Eight women, all aged between 18 and 25, have alleged physical harassment at different work
51:45locations. They say they were subjected to comments about their physique and clothing and also faced
51:52remarks which hurt their religious sentiments. A male employee was also allegedly brainwashed and
51:57pressured to convert and forced to perform religious rituals and consume non-vegetarian food.
52:04Shockingly, the alleged incidents are said to have taken place over a period of two to three years,
52:09beginning around 2022. Victims alleged they approached the company's HR earlier, but no action was taken.
52:19The police were victim to the employees without any parts of the company's death.
52:25The police were taken away while they were taken away from the app for their operations manager as a
52:29person. And there was a post committee, but they also had a report under the office.
52:32With the post committee, when they had a complaint about the public, they didn't take
52:47Police have uncovered that there was a close-knit WhatsApp group in which the accused team leaders
52:54and HR professional Nida Khan were part of that group.
52:58They were discussing targeting victims on this group and further discussions were happening
53:05on whom to be targeted.
53:08There was no comment or clarification from the company till its chairman N. Chandrasekharan
53:14issued a statement on Monday, terming the complaints and allegations gravely concerning and anguishing.
53:21The company promised full cooperation in the investigations and emphasised that the Tata
53:26group maintains a zero-tolerance policy towards any form of coercion or misconduct by its employees.
53:32The statement said, appropriate and stringent action will be taken against those,
53:36found guilty and necessary processes, improvements or corrective measures will be implemented
53:43and enforced.
53:45The company's President and Chief Operating Officer, Aarthi Subramanian, has been tasked
53:50with heading the internal probe.
53:53Political leaders have slammed what they termed the company's inaction on the issue, with
53:58Chiv Siena UBT leader Priyanka Chaturvedi terming the response inadequate and casually dismissive.
54:05BJP leader Bandhi Sanjay went a step further, calling the incident a case of corporate jihad.
54:11Other political leaders joined in, with Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, promising
54:16a thorough probe.
54:31The TCS stock has meanwhile fallen 7% in two trading sessions since the arrests.
54:38Investigators are already looking into the bank accounts, emails, chats and call records
54:43of the accused, and even at the possibility of foreign funding to encourage these conversions.
54:57The team leaders WhatsApp group, that's being investigated very closely, as are their WhatsApp chats
55:04and account details.
55:06We'll be tracking that story very closely.
55:07That is all I have for you on this special broadcast, very thanks for watching, news and
55:11updates continue on India Today.
55:13Stay with us.
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