00:00What is the Axis My India exit poll for the state of Assam saying,
00:04is Hemantabhiswa Sarma poised to retain power or can Gaurav Gogoi be the giant killer?
00:10Over to you, Preeti and Maria.
00:14Lovely temple background there, as you can see.
00:17The Kamakhya temple in the background, go for it.
00:19Just look at the vote share gap, which has been predicted by Axis My India.
00:24They are saying that NDA will be at 48%, Congress at 38%,
00:28a gap of 10%.
00:29Look at the seats there, Rajdeep.
00:31Look at the seats.
00:32It's a sweep for the BJP.
00:34That is what is being predicted for the NDA folder.
00:3788 to 100 seats predicted, Maria, in the state of Assam.
00:42Axis My India has given a sweep to the Bharatiya Janata Party and the NDA in Assam.
00:49Abject decimation when it comes down to the alliance in Assam.
00:54And on the other hand, last time around, if you look at it, Rajdeep,
00:58the difference between the BJP in terms of vote share and the Congress was hardly anything.
01:04This time around, it's a 10% difference in vote share.
01:08And look how it translates into seat share.
01:1088 to 100.
01:11So the BJP poised, at least as of now, the NDA poised to do way better.
01:16Last time it was 75.
01:18Here you have 88 to 100.
01:20So a huge jump for the BJP, a sweep by the Bharatiya Janata Party, Maria, where it comes down to
01:26Assam.
01:27So it's a big win and a big vote of confidence if these numbers hold for Himantabhiswa Sarma.
01:32Absolutely.
01:33I mean, Himantabhiswa Sarma himself was pretty confident that it will be in upwards of 80.
01:38But if these numbers actually hold, it is certainly a big news for Himantabhiswa Sarma.
01:44And if we were to look at microdata, which has been put out by Access My India, Preeti,
01:49it says that among the first-time voters, it's 2%, which is roughly around 2%.
01:56It's 43, 20 to 29, 44.
02:00So across various age groups, there has been a significant gain as far as that vote share is concerned.
02:09So what we are seeing actually, look at those numbers.
02:1110% difference in 2026 as for the exit poll between the BJP and its allies and the Congress and
02:17its allies.
02:18That difference was barely 1.6% last time.
02:22So clearly the BJP, which had 43.96%, as per this poll, gets a 4% jump.
02:30And the Congress or the UPA, which was 42%, goes down by 4%.
02:35Others, which were 10% last time, have gone up to 14%.
02:39So what you've got at the moment is the opposition vote getting further splintered,
02:44but the BJP vote also growing in Assam.
02:48If these numbers hold, this is the highest ever tally that the BJP has had in Assam in the three
02:53election victories.
02:54If this, of course, holds come Monday.
02:57But Rajdeep, look at the numbers of others.
02:59This is also an election where the Congress is not fighting with AIUDF.
03:02So that means AIUDF has also made a dent in the Muslim vote.
03:0640% Muslim.
03:07This should have been.
03:08Ideally, if you go by, you know, what one would suggest that the Congress gets the minority vote,
03:13an election for the Congress.
03:14But having said that, you see this election, they were not fighting with AIUDF
03:18and you look at the other, you know, figure there for others and that's AIDUDF in that as well.
03:24And they've taken a sizable Muslim vote.
03:26Should it be fair to say that BJP is now getting a new mama
03:32and that mama is more than just a points man of Home Minister Amit Shah.
03:37He has carved out a new constituency for himself in Assam.
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