- 13 hours ago
The West Asia conflict intensifies as over 200 ships remain stuck in the Persian Gulf and 150 await passage outside the Strait of Hormuz, including 38 Indian vessels. Amid these disruptions, the United States has granted India a 30-day waiver to receive Russian oil shipments currently at sea.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today, your primetime destination news, newsmakers, talking points and our big
00:07talking point this Friday night ahead of the weekend.
00:11West Asia war one week over, what next? Shashi Tharoor is among our special guests, also the former Foreign Secretary
00:20Nirupama Menon Rao and Ravi Agarwal of Foreign Policy.
00:25So we have lots of talking heads today, but first, as always, it's time for the Nine Headlines at Nine.
00:35Trump's big message for Iran, no deal except unconditional surrender, vows to make Iran great again.
00:42Iran stays defiant, President of Iran says no hesitation in defending the country.
00:50India gets a 30-day U.S. waiver to buy Russian oil shipments stranded at sea.
00:56First official response by the Indian government, Union Minister Hardee Puri says no shortage of energy in India despite the
01:02blocked trade of Hormuz.
01:07Days after U.S. submarine sinks Iranian ship, top government sources reject reports claiming Indian Navy aided U.S. attack
01:17on an Iranian warship.
01:19Term reports baseless and preposterous.
01:25Amidst war on Iran, Trump sets his eyes now on Cuba, says his administration intends to finish the war in
01:31Iran before turning its attention to Cuba, which has further escalated tensions.
01:38Lok Sabha may debate a motion to remove the speaker next week.
01:42BJP and Congress issue a whip to all its MPs, mandating them to be in the House from March 9th
01:47to 11th.
01:51Raul Gandhi lashes out at the film Kerala Story 2, says movies are being weaponized to divide communities, calls it
01:59good news that film is not being widely watched.
02:05Karnataka and Andhra moved to ban social media used by children.
02:09Children below age of 16 will be banned from using social media in Karnataka.
02:13Andhra CM says similar proposal for kids below 13 will be implemented within 90 days.
02:20Two Air Force pilots killed after Sukhoi jet crashes in Assam.
02:24Su-30 MK-1 fighter jet went missing on Thursday evening shortly after it took off from Jorat.
02:30Lost radar contacts shortly after that.
02:3435-year-old rapper-turned-politician Baleng Shah set to become next Nepal Prime Minister as his party,
02:40Rashtia Swatantra Party, heading towards a landslide victory in the elections there.
02:56For our top story tonight, the war in West Asia is now threatening one of the world's most critical energy
03:02lifelines,
03:03the Strait of Hormuz, with ships struck in the Gulf, oil supplies under pressure.
03:08The U.S. is offering India a temporary waiver to buy Russian crude.
03:12The global energy market is entering uncertain territory.
03:16While New Delhi insists there is no immediate shortage,
03:19the political and economic ripples are already being felt home.
03:23A clear indication that the war in West Asia is having an impact across the world, including India.
03:30It's our top story tonight.
03:42The tremors of war in West Asia are being felt across the globe.
03:46The conflict has claimed lives and disrupted the global oil supply chain.
03:51Reports say more than 200 ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf,
03:55while 150 are waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz.
03:59Thirty-eight Indian ships are stuck in the region.
04:04With oil supplies badly affected, the United States has offered India a 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil.
04:11U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said the decision was taken to enable oil to keep flowing into global markets.
04:19He claimed that this short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government
04:25as it only authorises transactions involving oil already stranded at sea.
04:31Besant said U.S. anticipates that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of U.S. oil.
04:36He called the waiver a stop-gap measure to elevate pressure caused by Iran's attempt to take global energy hostage.
04:45Government sources have told India today that India has more crude oil at the moment
04:49than what is stuck at Strait of Hormuz.
04:53Reprioritisation regarding use of crude is happening within the government.
04:58The government sources say that there is no shortage of LPG
05:01and that refineries have been ordered to increase production of LPG.
05:05The government, however, admits the war will impact global energy scenario.
05:09If we look at the state of Hormuz or the entire Persian Gulf government,
05:16then it is a state of energy security.
05:19It is a state of Hormuz or the entire Persian Gulf government.
05:21When there is a disturbance or disruption in the government,
05:25it is a direct result of oil and gas supply.
05:30It is a direct result of the uncertainty of the economy and global trade.
05:38Russia has said it is ready to supply oil to India if required.
05:43This is up to India to decide.
05:44You know, we have always maintained that we are ready,
05:50have always been ready to offer oil supplies to India,
05:55provided India needs those supplies.
05:58That's the decision the Indian government should take.
06:04Back home, the development has also triggered political storm.
06:08Congress has accused the Modi government of ceding diplomatic space of Washington,
06:13questioning why India needs a US waiver at all to continue buying Russian oil.
06:42As the war threatens one of the world's most critical energy choke points,
06:46the global oil market is entering uncertain territory.
06:50Bureau Report, India Today.
06:55And my first special guest in our continuing coverage on the West Asia conflict
07:00is none other than Shashi Tharoor.
07:02He is, of course, Chairperson of the Standing Committee on External Affairs,
07:06seasoned diplomat and Member of Parliament.
07:08Appreciate your joining us, Dr. Tharoor.
07:11Your first take, a big takeaway for what's happened now with a week into the war.
07:17Do you believe that this war is now becoming increasingly an escalating conflict
07:24that could get other countries, including India, in some way or the other, within its ambit?
07:29No, I don't think we're going to get, in any case, dragged into the conflict.
07:33But what's happening is the consequences of the conflict are already affecting us
07:38and many other countries besides.
07:39Because what's happening right now is that oil prices have already started spiking.
07:45It was about $65 per barrel before the war started.
07:50It's already up at 83 when I last checked and maybe climbing further.
07:54Gas supplies.
07:55Qatar is one of the world's leading gas suppliers.
07:58They've declared force majeure, which means they are out of all their contracts.
08:03Factories from India to Korea are going to suddenly find themselves without gas.
08:07There are some very serious consequences affecting people already because of this war.
08:13And we've already had people affected because of the closure of airports in the Gulf,
08:18travelers being stranded, others being unable to move, businesses being affected,
08:22people working from home.
08:24I mean, lives all around.
08:25We are a country with 9 to 10 million of our nationals in the Gulf.
08:29For us, this is something that really does affect their lives
08:32and their ability to do well, send remittances home, all of that.
08:36So we can't be indifferent.
08:38It is very much in our interest to demand de-escalation and diplomacy.
08:44No question about that.
08:46But when you speak of getting involved, I don't think we mean it militarily.
08:50There would be no reason for any other country to enter a conflict because that would simply prolong it.
08:55No, when I say India's involvement, I mean in terms of the fact that India will in some way or
09:02the other
09:02face the repercussions of what's happening in West Asia, both the large number of Indians who live in the region,
09:09as well as, as you said, energy security.
09:11But therefore, what role precisely do you see Shashitharoor India playing?
09:17Because your own party, the Congress has once again raised questions of a strategic autonomy
09:23because the United States is saying they will allow India to have a 30-day waiver
09:28when it comes to purchases of oil from Russia.
09:31Your own party seems to suggest that this is India's strategic autonomy being diluted by Washington,
09:37and Washington playing the big bully or the superpower in a way.
09:40Do you agree that India, in a way, needs to send a tougher message to Washington that,
09:45look, we are not going to follow your dictates?
09:49Well, the problem is the consequences if we don't.
09:52I think that for the companies that are purchasing Russian oil and putting it into their refineries,
09:58without that waiver, they get subject to sanctions which affect all their businesses.
10:02So there is, to my mind, a choice that has to be made.
10:06There is no doubt that the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and indeed by the EU
10:13have not received any authorization from the U.N. Security Council,
10:17and therefore there are sanctions by individual countries.
10:20They don't have the sanctity of international law.
10:23But at the same time, you have to be realistic.
10:27If the sanctions mean that your companies will risk being frozen out of the world markets,
10:32frozen out of the American or European markets,
10:35then you won't want to buy Russian oil because your companies have an interest in being able to function that
10:40way.
10:41And for those reasons, I think you must understand that it is imperative for these companies to heed the sanctions,
10:48and the waiver will have come as a big relief to them.
10:51With that waiver, they can openly purchase for those 30 days,
10:55knowing that those purchases will be exempt from any negative consequences for their companies.
11:02But in a way, is this all now boiling down to America playing the big bully,
11:07Israel wanting dominant power over West Asia,
11:11and Iran in a way also having a regime that's battling for its life.
11:17How do you see this in the context of the power politics that's playing out in the region?
11:26Do you believe that this is a just war, as the United States, Donald Trump reiterated today?
11:34Look, the tenets of international law are very clear,
11:38that there is no justification for using force against a sovereign member state of the UN,
11:44except in self-defense, which cannot be invoked in this particular case,
11:49or with Security Council authorization, which does not exist in this case.
11:54The logic of preemptive self-defense, which is something that has been cited by apologists for this war,
12:00saying that if we hadn't done it,
12:02that the Iranians would have developed a nuclear weapon and attacked us first,
12:07that preemptive logic doesn't really hold up when the Omani negotiators,
12:12who've been mediating talks between the Americans and the Iranians,
12:15claim that the Iranians had already agreed to no nukes,
12:19zero enriched uranium stockpiles,
12:23and other steps that would have essentially eliminated the threat of a nuclear weapon from Iran.
12:29The only thing that was delaying the conclusion of those negotiations was
12:33Iran wanted in return for those assurances to receive structured sanctions relief from the West,
12:40because as you know, Iranian oil is already sanctioned by the West,
12:44and we, for example, have stopped buying Iranian oil because of that,
12:47just as we are under pressure to stop buying Russian oil now.
12:50So those sanctions were a potent force already before all of this,
12:54and that's something that we can't afford to ignore.
12:59So should we have reiterated that principle that you just spoke about,
13:03about territorial sovereignty,
13:05about the fact that you can't just go into another country
13:09and assassinate its head of state, its religious head?
13:15Do you believe that India should be drawing certain red lines,
13:18or it's best done through quiet diplomacy rather than making any pronouncements?
13:23Look, that's a call each individual government has to take.
13:26As you may have seen,
13:28very few governments have had the courage to stand up and condemn the American action.
13:33Of course, countries in the Arab and Islamic world, to some degree, have done so.
13:38Not all of them, but some have.
13:40And in the Western world, Spain, I think, is pretty much alone
13:43in saying this was an illegal and unjustified action.
13:46Many other countries have felt that condemning this war would put them on the wrong side
13:52of a U.S. government, which has not hesitated to show its displeasure
13:57in ways that have really hurt many countries.
14:00So do you agree with that?
14:01Do you agree with that position that we should not be seen to antagonize the Trump administration?
14:05Is Donald Trump arrogating for himself the right to decide which country he's going to invade?
14:10One day it's Venezuela, one day it's Iran, and here he's got Israel driving it.
14:15Do you believe that we should be standing for certain principles or not?
14:19Radheem, I've said this in the past, that we do have,
14:22we have always stood for certain principles in world affairs.
14:26The punch shield doctrine enunciates all these principles also.
14:30The U.S. Charter does so.
14:33But there are 193 countries which could say it.
14:36How many of them have stood up and said it?
14:37And why don't they do so?
14:38Because they have made a calculation, which is a prerogative of a sovereign government,
14:43that they have bigger fish to fry.
14:45They have bigger interests at stake in these relationships.
14:47And that if the price of articulating such a principled condemnation of the American action
14:53is that they will antagonize an America they feel they can't afford to antagonize on other issues,
15:00then as a government, they can decide not to do this.
15:02Look, we took the same line on Russia.
15:05You remember that in Parliament, when the Russians invaded Ukraine,
15:08I criticized the government of India for not articulating these principles
15:12and condemning the Russian invasion.
15:14A couple of years later, when our Prime Minister went to Moscow and hugged President Putin
15:19and went to Kiev two weeks later and hugged President Zelensky,
15:23I had to admit that his silence turned out of the strategic benefit
15:27that we were able to keep open channels of communication to both sides in that conflict.
15:32So you have to, it's difficult for us sitting outside a government to guess their choices.
15:38No, no, but that's precisely the question, if I may push you, but that's precisely the question.
15:42Your own party today is saying government has ceded its strategic autonomy.
15:45Do you agree with that?
15:46Or do you believe that the government retains the choices that it must make in situations like that?
15:53Whether we should condole Ali Khamina's death, whether we should speak out against an Iranian warship
16:00that has been sunk in Indian Ocean, are these decisions best left to government?
16:05Or do you believe the opposition has the right to say that strategic autonomy is being eroded,
16:09that the Narendra Modi government is surrendering, to use the words of Rahul Gandhi?
16:14Rajdeep, the opposition's job is to oppose.
16:16And I have no doubt that if we had been in the government and had taken the choice that this
16:20government has now taken,
16:21they in the opposition would have said the same thing to us.
16:24That is how democracies work.
16:26I don't think that right now sitting here and looking at that in that context is particularly relevant.
16:34It's a question of how we can protect our national interests.
16:38Sovereign autonomy is a means of protecting our national interests.
16:42I will say, however, that expressing condolences on the assassination of a head of state is a normal thing to
16:48do.
16:49And I'm very glad that our government has expressed those condolences.
16:52And the foreign secretary was sent to the Iranian embassy to sign the official book of condolences.
16:57That is the right thing to do.
16:58And I will say that as far as the courtesies and between states are concerned,
17:04don't forget that we have full diplomatic relations with Iran.
17:09There's an ambassador here.
17:10And our foreign minister telephoned his Iranian counterpart while he also spoke to his Israeli counterpart.
17:16This is India trying to show that they've got China as a communication open to both countries.
17:22And I think you really have to respect the choices the government has made as choices that they deem at
17:29that point to be in the best interests of India,
17:34given that there would be consequences for other choices.
17:37Look, at the end of the day, Rajdeep, we in the opposition will always have reason to criticise.
17:44We attacked the government when 50 percent tariffs were imposed on us.
17:49We've attacked the government when other decisions were made by other countries.
17:56So when our government does something to prevent that kind of retaliation from those countries,
18:03when we attack, we're being the opposition.
18:05And that's right.
18:06That's how democracies function.
18:07But I don't think that's the real issue here.
18:10The real issue is the first question you asked.
18:12How is India affected?
18:14What is India's interest?
18:15And I would say to you, India's interest is in ending this war as soon as possible.
18:19And if we get more influence on those who are conducting this war by not condemning them publicly,
18:27then that is something that we might want to do when we're in government.
18:31And we might not want to do when we're in opposition.
18:33Which brings me to my final question.
18:35When you say ending the war, you spend a long time of your diplomatic career at the United Nations.
18:40The United Nations seems powerless to stop this war.
18:43All multilateralism seems to have evaporated.
18:46And it seems that the United States has arrogated, as I said, to itself the right to decide how this
18:52war is to be conducted.
18:53Donald Trump today is saying that he expects an unconditional surrender from Iran and a regime change of preferably his
19:01choice.
19:02Where does this leave the world and the United Nations?
19:05Conflicts seem impossible to resolve, whether it's Ukraine, Iran, or indeed earlier Gaza.
19:10Do you believe the United Nations is completely powerless, important, and defunct now?
19:15Well, let's not go quite that far, because there's more to the UN than one particular conflict.
19:19But in terms of conflict resolution?
19:23Let me say, Rajdeep, first of all, we are going through a crisis when it comes to international law,
19:28because the fact is that the whole premise of international law and the world order that was established after the
19:33Second World War
19:33was that power would be tamed by law, would be subject to law,
19:38and that any use of power would have to be justified in terms of law.
19:42That has been cast to the winds in recent years by many players.
19:47Russia's violation of international law in attacking Ukraine.
19:51America's violation of international law in attacking Iraq in 2003 and now attacking Iran.
19:57I mean, the truth is there have been violations.
19:59Israel has violated many principles of international law in its campaign in Gaza.
20:03So the fact is international law is now being buffeted about by those who have the power to disregard its
20:10consequences.
20:10Does that mean the UN is out of the window?
20:13No.
20:13It means that in situations where member states that are powerful enough,
20:18that either are permanent members of the Security Council or enjoy the protection of permanent members of the Security Council,
20:24when they take certain steps, the UN cannot stop them because the Security Council has that structure.
20:31But that doesn't mean that the law ceases to be irrelevant.
20:34It means that we acknowledge that it is being disregarded in this particular context.
20:40We try and live with the consequences to the extent we have to,
20:43but we try and reclaim that ground when this conflict is over so that the next crisis will not lead
20:50to this kind of violation.
20:53The UN is literally the only organization in the world that collects all the countries of the world together on
21:00one forum to discuss these global issues.
21:03We can't afford to jettison it.
21:05It's not doing very well on this particular issue.
21:08It can be of use to India and to the rest of the world and various other issues.
21:11Let's not discard the UN over this crisis.
21:15But let us admit it is not, it is congenitally, chronically unable to act in a situation where a permanent
21:22member is on the warpath.
21:24May I ask you one final question on this, which is that do you sense, based on the last week,
21:29have we tilted too far towards placating the Israel-American axis at the cost of Iran?
21:35Do you believe that we need to therefore maintain a much tighter balance given our interests in the region?
21:41Or do you believe that we need to be seen to be the, with the winning side, as some call
21:45it, with the more powerful side?
21:47Do you believe that we've tilted far too much towards Israel and America or not?
21:52Well, we have not applauded this action.
21:54We have not endorsed this action.
21:56So in that sense...
21:58But we've not condemned it either.
21:59We have not condemned it either.
22:01Similarly, we have kept open lines of communication to Iran.
22:04And we have expressed a hope that matters will be resolved very quickly.
22:09That seems to be the choice that we have made.
22:11Now, you could ask yourself, why not condemn it?
22:13The question is, if we condemn it, what good does it do to Iran?
22:16Are we going to send them weapons?
22:18We're not.
22:18Are we going to support them in the conflict?
22:20We're not.
22:21So the condemnation is cheap.
22:23It's words.
22:24But in the process, do we lose leverage over the West?
22:28Do we lose leverage over the U.S.?
22:29Look at other countries in an analogous situation of the silences they've kept.
22:34I mean, you have to understand, Rajdeep, academics, journalists, and outsiders can always take a stand of principle.
22:41I've articulated the principles for you.
22:43But as a government, what does the Indian government need to do to ensure that there are no consequences from
22:50the stand it takes for the people of India and the interests of India?
22:54If I were in government or advising government, those are the questions that would be uppermost in my mind, too.
22:59So I find it difficult to sit here outside the government and say, I want the government to say all
23:06these things because the government then has to live with the consequences.
23:08And if the consequences are going to get 50 percent sanctions again on India, then my job as opposition would
23:14be to say, look at this hopeless government.
23:15They've given us 50 percent sanctions once more.
23:18So you have to understand governments make choices all the time.
23:21And we, as an alternative party of government, we also have to think about what we would do if we
23:30were in power.
23:30I think there's a message in what you've said, both for the government and indeed for your own party and
23:35the opposition.
23:36But Shashi Tharoor, for joining me ahead of your 70th birthday, I know you turned 70 on the 9th of
23:42March.
23:42I don't want to remind you about that, but I know that you've got a big couple of days coming
23:47up.
23:47I've just been launching Dr. Karan Singh's biography and he turns 95 on the 9th of March.
23:54So we have a quarter of a century between us and it's been fascinating.
23:57It's a great date.
23:58And since you're a cricket fan, I believe the wicketkeeper Parthiv Patel also shares that birthday with us.
24:03Well, speaking about cricket and Shashi Tharoor at the moment, Sanju Samson is probably the most popular Thiruvannanthapuramite, if I
24:14may call it, ahead of you, Dr. Tharoor.
24:16I'm happy to yield place to him.
24:18Let him continue earning that on Sunday too.
24:21Okay.
24:22Thank you very much, Shashi Tharoor, for joining me here on the news today.
24:26All the best.
24:27Thanks, Sanju.
24:37Now, we're getting more news in just now amidst the controversy over the Iranian ship Iris Dena.
24:43Remember, that was sunk off the coast of Sri Lanka by an American torpedo.
24:47India has decided to give shelter to another Iranian ship.
24:50Government sources saying India was approached by Iran to take in the Iranian ship Iris Lawan, which was also in
24:56the region for the International Fleet Review.
24:58Request was received on 20th of February, indicating that a docking at Kochi was urgent as the vessel had developed
25:05technical issues.
25:06Approval was accorded for the docking on the 1st of March.
25:09Iris Lawan has since docked at Kochi on the 4th of March.
25:13And its crew of 183 are currently in the accommodated and naval facilities in Kochi.
25:20So, interesting developments there taking place.
25:23But the larger question, the larger question still remains, that of strategic autonomy.
25:29Has that been ceded or retained?
25:31How should India now be looking at the developments that have taken place in recent days?
25:37Is Trump playing the big bully?
25:39Is it trying to draw some red lines?
25:41Those are some of the questions I want to pose.
25:43Joining me now is another.
25:46Okay, we're going to be joined by another special guest in a moment.
25:49Nirupama Rao Menon is former foreign secretary.
25:54She, remember, is someone who's come out very strongly and said India must not be silent
25:59and must really call America's bluff in a way when America tries to target India in some way
26:07or tries to limit India's choices, whether it is procurement of oil
26:11or whether it is decisions that America takes in India's neighborhood.
26:16India must stand by its strategic autonomy.
26:19She's been putting out a series of tweets suggesting that silence in particular
26:24is not an option in the present scenario in the region.
26:29Joining us now live is Nirupama Rao.
26:32I appreciate, ma'am, you joining us.
26:34Thank you very much for joining me there.
26:37I want to turn to some of your tweets that you put out in recent days.
26:42You seem to suggest that in some way, India must be very careful in not ceding its autonomy
26:50to the United States, strategic autonomy above all else.
26:53How do you see it?
26:54Do you believe that in this U.S.-Israel war against Iran, it's becoming very difficult
27:01to maintain a neutral position?
27:05Sorry, Rajdeep, there seems to be some issue with the video.
27:09I don't think you can see me.
27:11No, I can now.
27:15Okay.
27:16Go ahead, ma'am.
27:16Please go ahead.
27:18Could you, I mean, could you say that question?
27:21Could you repeat the question again?
27:22I'm sorry.
27:23My question to you is that you put out a series of tweets concerned over strategic autonomy
27:29in particular in the context of U.S.-Israel war against Iran, that India must be seen to
27:40hold its own.
27:41What do you mean by hold its own?
27:43And what is the position that India can take in this highly polarized, surcharged atmosphere?
27:49First and foremost, I think India, Rajdeep, is a country that has always stood by principle,
27:57that has always followed a normative approach to global affairs and happenings on the international stage.
28:07Having said that, when it comes to the unfolding crisis that you are seeing now with the war
28:16between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, this is not a war
28:23from which, on which we can afford to say that we are not affected.
28:28I think the discussion with Dr. Tharoor told our audience about the impact and the fallout
28:36for Indians, whether it's Indians in the Gulf, whether it's the oil economy, our energy security,
28:44whether it's the happenings with the sinking of the Iranian ship off, basically off the coast
28:50of Sri Lanka, within, you know, our neighborhood, as we call it, the Indian Ocean zone.
28:56So for all these reasons, obviously we cannot divorce ourselves from what is happening on
29:03this whole unfolding conflict situation that is before us.
29:09But how does one deal with someone as unpredictable, ma'am, as Donald Trump, given the fact that
29:19here is someone who obviously is engaged in power politics, even the wordplay of saying
29:29that he's given, that India will be given this 30-day waiver, the language of it, the manner
29:35in which the Defense Secretary of America says Iran will be toast.
29:40How does one deal with someone who uses this kind of constant language of belligerence?
29:47Well, I think the language has been rather revealing.
29:50It has been unusually blunt.
29:53It is as if Washington is granting, if you please, permission to India.
30:01It's allowed a 30-day waiver for the purchase of Russian oil, and it's just 30 days.
30:07Obviously, it doesn't want Russia to gain any significant financial benefit from the sale
30:13of such oil to India.
30:15And it also expects India to ramp up purchases of American oil.
30:20So, you know, these are messages that are embedded in the announcement that Mr. Scott
30:25Besant made.
30:26So, the phrasing, I believe, does contain an awkward optic for India, because it makes
30:34it appear that India has received permission, although we have been saying all along that
30:40we buy Russian oil based on our national interest.
30:44You know, because India has…
30:45This kind of language.
30:47Yeah, because, you know, when I look at the data, the data clearly shows, while India's
30:52purchases of Russian oil have significantly reduced in the last six months, India still
30:57continues to purchase about 20% of its oil, still comes from the Russians.
31:02You see, all of this is coming against the backdrop, of course, of the way in which Donald
31:07Trump is conducting foreign policy.
31:10It's not a rules-based international order, clearly.
31:13One day, you're targeting Venezuela, off with the head of the Venezuelan head of state,
31:20and you sort of capture him.
31:21Now, you're targeting the Iranian regime.
31:24When you're dealing with someone who's so unpredictable, what happens to the conventional
31:29rules, in a way, the rules-based order?
31:32What you're saying would apply if there was a rules-based order, ma'am.
31:36In the absence of that, how does one deal with someone like Donald Trump?
31:42Does one, how can one maintain a position wherein one can safeguard one's interests publicly?
31:50Or does it always have to be done through quiet diplomacy behind the table, behind doors,
31:56closed doors?
31:57Well, I think quiet diplomacy certainly has its meaning, has its uses, and continues to have
32:04its relevance, and I believe in the long run, if the conflict plays itself out for a much
32:12longer period than we've expected, I believe India will have to take a stand at some stage.
32:18It's still early days of the conflict.
32:21I have argued that a theory of silence or guarded silence may not be a good theory for our foreign
32:28policy, but obviously I'm not privy to the thinking of the government in this regard, and one has to
32:35make some allowance for their sovereign thinking on these issues.
32:41But let me say that, for instance, the ASEAN group of countries has come out with a fairly
32:47strong and persuasive statement about the unfolding situation.
32:52And, you know, we are very close to the ASEAN.
32:56The ASEAN is very much in our neighborhood.
32:59And I think there are certain conclusions to be drawn from such developments.
33:06You know, but you, very interestingly, after Donald Trump came to power, you framed a jungle
33:11analogy.
33:12When Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela's, was captured by the US, you had said, ma'am, and I quote you
33:17here, India's task is not to applaud or to moralize, but to stay consistent with its own strategic
33:23logic.
33:24India lives in a jungle world where power rules the forest, yet it also relies on sovereignty
33:30and non-intervention when it matters close to home.
33:33Strategic autonomy today means understanding power without surrendering principle, holding
33:38both intention with clarity, foresight, and discipline.
33:42This, how much has the jungle since changed?
33:47And what is our place in this jungle?
33:49If Donald Trump is not going to abide by any principles, what place does a country like India
33:55have?
33:56We definitely have our place.
33:58When I used the metaphor of the jungle, what I was aiming at illustrating, as far as, you
34:05know, my readers were concerned, is that in this definition, this definition of this new
34:12scheme of things, where the world order, as we have been accustomed to, has shown signs
34:18of rupture, it's really a hinge moment.
34:20I don't believe, you know, a new world order has come into being to succeed what we had all
34:28these years.
34:28But what we are confronted with is a situation, and obviously a geopolitical situation, where
34:35power matters, where rules may exist, but they are unevenly applied, and survival, survival
34:43for all countries, including ours, depends on awareness, it depends on adaptability.
34:49There are a number of predatory forces that surround us.
34:55It's not a unipolar jungle anymore.
34:57It's in many ways a multipolar jungle.
35:00The United States remains powerful.
35:03China is rising.
35:05Russia is disruptive.
35:06Regional powers are asserting themselves.
35:09And our own place in the jungle is evolving.
35:12That's how I would define this new scheme of things.
35:17Fascinating the way you put it, Nerupama Rao.
35:21I wish we had, you know, we've, we didn't have the camera, unfortunately, but we'll try
35:27and rectify that the next time we have you on the show.
35:31But I really appreciate you joining us and giving us your definition of this multipolar
35:36world.
35:37It's a fascinating description of this law of the jungle that's prevailing at the moment.
35:43Thank you so much for joining me here on the news today.
35:46Let's take you through the top developments on day seven of the war.
35:50Israel continues to fire missiles towards Iran.
35:54Israeli forces carried out fresh strikes in capital city of Tehran and Isfahan, where
35:59a nuclear facility is based.
36:00Israel also claims it's eliminated a senior command of the present Iranian regime.
36:05Iran continues to target U.S.-related assets across the Gulf region.
36:09Iranian state media claims they struck a U.S. base in Kuwait.
36:13Tehran says it has also attacked a U.S.-owned oil tanker off the coast of Kuwait.
36:17A media report claims that it was possibly the United States which struck an elementary
36:22school in the Iranian town of Minab, killing more than 160, most of whom were girl students.
36:27While Washington says it is still investigating the incident, the Reuters report reveals the
36:32school was struck at the same time precision strikes were being carried out in Iran.
36:36After eliminating the Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Israel continues to target Tehran's
36:42leadership.
36:43Israeli forces conducted strikes at an underground bunker of the late supreme leader.
36:47Fifty jets carried out the airstrikes in the Iranian leadership's compound in the capital.
36:53Iranian missiles have struck Bahrain's Babco energies refining.
37:01And joining me now is another of our special guests.
37:17I'm joined by Ravi Agarwal.
37:18He's editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy based there in New York.
37:23Appreciate you joining us, Ravi.
37:26Just make sense of this last week for our viewers here in India.
37:31Has this taken you and other analysts completely by surprise the manner in which this war has
37:38been prosecuted and how quickly it's almost being turned into a regional war of sorts?
37:45So I won't exactly call it surprise, Rajdeep, because the Trump administration had telegraphed
37:50many of these things ahead of time.
37:52They had always said that they did not really think the diplomatic talks were going to work.
37:58They had clearly amassed all of this weaponry and the aircraft carriers in the region.
38:05And usually when the Trump administration does that, they use it with the precedent we've seen
38:09in Venezuela and also Iran last year.
38:12And then thirdly, we've always known that this is something Israel wanted to do.
38:16And there was open talk that Israel would start the attack and the United States would join.
38:22So I am not, in fact, surprised that this has happened.
38:25I think what is surprising so far in the last few days of this conflict is that Khamenei was
38:31assassinated as quickly as he was.
38:34That surprised me.
38:35And then the fact that Iran actually has come good on what it said it would do.
38:40It said it would regionalize the war ahead of time were it to be attacked.
38:44And it has actually done that.
38:45That, to some degree, has surprised me.
38:47So the attacks on a number of U.S. bases around the Gulf, the Middle East, more broadly on civilian
38:54targets as well, that kind of lashing out in response tells me that the regime is desperate.
39:01They have their backs against the wall.
39:03They will do whatever they can.
39:04And at this point, Rajdeep, this is now a question of who has a higher pain threshold.
39:10Does Israel have a higher pain threshold to keep going or Iran?
39:14And I didn't even mention the United States there because I think President Trump has the lowest pain threshold of
39:21the three participants in this war.
39:23Interesting you're saying that President Trump has the lowest pain threshold of the three participants.
39:29So presumably the last thing he wants is a protracted war.
39:33Do you think that at some stage he might have thought that this would become Venezuela when they were preparing
39:39for this war?
39:40It would be a quick, decisive victory.
39:42Or were the Americans prepared for a potential long haul?
39:46And is Donald Trump mentally prepared for a long haul wherein criticisms might mount against him back home?
39:56Look, I think they were militarily prepared in that they clearly had amassed all of this firepower and also defensive
40:03artillery around the region.
40:06So they were militarily prepared.
40:08In terms of psychologically prepared, politically prepared, I'm not so sure.
40:14I mean, remember, Donald Trump did not sell this war to the American people.
40:18It is unpopular at home.
40:20It is technically illegal because Congress is supposed to approve these things.
40:25By international law, it is also illegal.
40:29There was no attempt to have consultations at the United Nations or among the international community more broadly.
40:36All of those things could come back to hurt the Trump administration.
40:40But I think most of all what matters here is that Trump came to power saying very clearly that he
40:46doesn't like to be mired in long-term conflicts.
40:49He's criticized the war in Iraq.
40:51He's criticized the war in Afghanistan.
40:53And I think the Venezuela action in January may have created a false sense of security that the United States
41:00can go in quickly and achieve its ends.
41:02And then, Rajdeep, finally, it's unclear what the American goal was here.
41:07Was it regime change?
41:08Was it purely hurting its nuclear program?
41:11Was it hurting the missile program?
41:14Israel has a much clearer set of objectives.
41:16I'm not so sure the United States did.
41:19And in part because of that uncertainty, I think Trump may struggle to figure out when exactly to exit this
41:27war.
41:28What, according to you, are the U.S. and Israel objectives then?
41:32As you said, there's no clarity over the U.S. objectives.
41:35Is it regime change?
41:37Is it not?
41:37Is it just getting Iran to abandon its nuclear program?
41:41Is it getting a more moderate leadership in place?
41:44The Israelis seem to want the annihilation of the entire leadership of Iran.
41:52Will those objectives somewhere perhaps diverge at some stage or the other?
41:57Is that?
41:58I'm just trying to understand from all the guests I've had over the last week, what is the end game?
42:04Well, it would help if someone was clear about that on any of the sides here.
42:09I think the United States has not been clear.
42:11In fact, they've said yes to every single thing you just said.
42:15Regime change, hitting the nuclear installations, the missile installations, and also the protesters and supporting democracy in Iran.
42:25The United States has said yes to each of those things already.
42:29But of course, you can't have all of those objectives.
42:32So I think the United States has not gone in with a clear set of objectives.
42:37Israel, I think, does have a clear set of objectives.
42:39And I think you just said it there.
42:40I think it's annihilation of the regime.
42:43I don't think they care about what comes next as long as it is severely weakened and unable to attack
42:49them.
42:50The third player here, of course, is Iran.
42:52And I think Iran's objective at this point is survival.
42:56The regime wants to survive at any cost.
42:59And the reason why it is attacking a range of actors in the Middle East, in the Gulf, is because,
43:09Rajdeep, offense is much easier than defense.
43:12When you send a swarm of drones to Dubai or when you shoot a ballistic missile at Doha, a lot
43:21of these, the drones cost $20,000 a piece.
43:24The ballistic missile is part of an arsenal of thousands.
43:27But when you try to shoot down these things, you're using up very, very expensive interceptors and missile defense systems
43:36that are a ratio of, you know, 100 to 1 in terms of cost.
43:42And so a lot of these countries and Israel and the United States are very worried about running out of
43:48their defenders, their interceptors before Iran can keep going.
43:54So in that sense, the Iranian regime just wants to survive as long as it can and then emerge from
44:01this weakened but still intact.
44:04What, therefore, for you, is the most likely scenario?
44:07I know this is a tough question to answer, particularly with Donald Trump in the White House.
44:13You never know what happens next.
44:14But what is the most likely scenario, in your view, now that we are almost a week into this conflict?
44:22I think continued degradation of Iranian attacking ability, whether it's missiles or drones, I think the regime will end up
44:33in some severely weakened form, ending up surviving.
44:38I do not think this ends in democracy for Iran, at least not in the short term.
44:42And that's because this regime has gone down a path of absolute repression.
44:47And as long as there are soldiers, the Basij, the IRGC, which number in the hundreds of thousands, as long
44:54as they exist, they will not allow for an alternative.
44:58The United States is the key actor here, and a lot depends on how long it stays in this war.
45:03My suspicion is that with each passing day, if there are more losses to U.S. allies in the region,
45:13then the United States will find it harder and harder to stay in and to provide a clear rationale for
45:21staying in.
45:21A lot depends on that.
45:23And through that, we will understand what kind of Iran will emerge from here.
45:27Do you see a possibility of this conflict escalating beyond West Asia?
45:35Or is this largely now a conflict confined to who controls West Asia?
45:41It's had a spillover on other parts of the world.
45:44We've had an Iranian warship which was torpedoed in the Indian Ocean.
45:48But by and large, do you believe this will be a conflict that will play out only in West Asia?
45:53Or could there be any possibility of it having any repercussions beyond the region?
45:59Oh, the possibilities are already there.
46:01You mentioned the torpedo attack on the Iranian ship in the Indian Ocean.
46:07That sets a very dangerous precedent.
46:10And if you are, you know, in the Iranian military, you will now be looking to retaliate in some form,
46:17in some way, somewhere.
46:18And I think part of Tehran's strategy is not just survival, but to raise the costs for Israel and particularly
46:25the United States.
46:26And by raise the costs, I mean both militarily but also politically.
46:32Iran wants the rest of the world to pressure the United States to stop this now.
46:37So that pressure can come from the form of higher crude prices.
46:41It can come from the form of Europeans or India saying, look, we are facing losses or suffering in various
46:49ways.
46:50That kind of political diplomatic pressure as well.
46:53I think Iran will be looking to pull every single lever it can.
46:57Because again, I mean, I can't stress enough how much they feel like they have their backs to the wall.
47:03And this is existential for this Iranian leadership, what's left of it.
47:07They will pull every lever they can.
47:09Again, the fact that they're attacking Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, we've now got three of the biggest airline hubs in
47:16the world have shut down, causing global travel chaos.
47:20This is serious pain now to a lot of people around the world.
47:24You're saying it's existential for Iran, presumably for Netanyahu.
47:28It's the opportunity he's been waiting for for a long time to annihilate the Iranian leadership.
47:35And for Donald Trump, it's about legacy, that here is a president who took out the Iranian leadership.
47:41Would I be right in saying that, that that's how the three principal players are looking?
47:47One looking for survival, the other for complete dominance over a region, and the third looking at legacy?
47:53I think that's exactly right.
47:55I think for Netanyahu, it is also about survival because he has, you know, corruption charges against him.
48:03He needs to be seen at home as a tough, strong leader who keeps the people safe.
48:08They will have elections at some point.
48:10And he, of course, needs to keep winning elections to not have those corruption cases against him proceed.
48:17But yes, you're right in your assessment of the three leaders.
48:21I think Trump, again, is the wild card here because he does care about legacy, but a lot depends on
48:27how this is read, how the events of the past week are spun in the United States.
48:34This war is not popular in the United States.
48:37Trump has not done a good enough job of explaining to the American people why the United States is involved.
48:42And once the price at the pump, the gas prices in the United States start going up, as they already
48:48have, he will have to explain why that is the case as spring and summer approaches here.
48:55My final question, do you see India having any role at all?
48:59Can a country remain perfectly neutral in this hyper-polarized environment?
49:05Can India tread that cautious, is cautious diplomacy the way forward?
49:11Or should India be taking a stand and drawing a red line somewhere or the other saying enough is enough,
49:18territorial sovereignty cannot be violated?
49:23Well, you know, it's hard to advise New Delhi what to do given how polarized the world is and also
49:30given how rules and norms have been challenged before this as well.
49:34I mean, this is not the first time this has happened.
49:37You know, I think the way to do these things is generally quietly and behind the scenes diplomatically.
49:44I think, again, what happened in the Indian Ocean in particular will be very troubling to the Modi administration.
49:51And I'm sure that behind the scenes, they will have passed on that sentiment to the United States.
49:59But in any real way, in terms of either supporting the Iranians or Israel, I cannot imagine it being in
50:07India's interest to get involved.
50:09Okay.
50:10Ravi Agarwal of Foreign Policy, joining me there from New York.
50:14Always appreciate your time.
50:15Thanks very much, Ravi.
50:17Always a pleasure, Ravi.
50:19Okay, I want to leave you with an image of the day, an image which shows perhaps just where this
50:24war has reached.
50:26Because as the war in West Asia intensifies, guess what?
50:29We've seen prayers echo inside the White House.
50:32Now, Donald Trump says he's fighting some kind of a holy war, a just war.
50:37What was he seen doing?
50:39Praying with a group of pastors in the Oval Office in a video released by AIDS.
50:44The footage shows Trump seated at the resolute desk with his eyes closed as evangelical pastor Greg Laurie led a
50:52prayer for the president and for U.S. troops in these challenging times as he described them.
50:58Several pastors stood around him, some placing their hands on him in prayer.
51:02Trump aide Margot Martin said the president had welcomed pastors from across the country to the White House.
51:08We leave you with these visuals and wonder, is this the kind of war that the world wants to see,
51:15which is sanctioned by religious pastors on one side and clerics on the other?
51:21Or do we want to see a world committed to peace in the truest sense?
51:27It's a question that only Donald Trump can answer.
51:30Let's hope he gets up on the right side of the bed come tomorrow morning.
51:34Thanks for watching, stay well, stay safe, and the Lord you will guide him in these challenging times that we're
51:41facing today.
51:42I pray for your grace and your protection over him.
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