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As the US-Iran conflict enters 25th day, politics has erupted over India's foreign policy and the shifting diplomatic landscape in West Asia.
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00:02Good evening. High-stakes diplomacy in West Asia is our top focus here on India.
00:07First, U.S. President Donald Trump just spoke with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
00:11They discussed the ongoing situation in Middle East, including the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
00:17A statement has been put out by U.S. Ambassador to India, Sergio Gorr,
00:21on the conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
00:26Prime Minister Modi also took to social media platform X to say, and I quote,
00:32received a call from President Trump, had a useful exchange of views on the situation in West Asia.
00:38India supports de-escalation and restoration of peace at the earliest,
00:44ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, secure and accessible is essential for the whole world.
00:51We agreed to stay in touch regarding efforts towards peace and stability.
00:56And just a short while back, U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gorr spoke exclusively to India today.
01:02He gave details of the conversation, saying the two leaders spoke on the West Asia war.
01:07U.S. welcomes India's input.
01:10The Strait of Hormuz is international waters and nobody can and should bully others in international waters or words to
01:20that effect.
01:20This is, incidentally, the first conversation between President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi
01:26since the initiation of conflict on the 20th of February.
01:29And just a few moments ago, news coming in, External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jai Shankar
01:35met the Iranian ambassador to India and discussed the situation in West Asia.
01:40On Monday, he'd spoken to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the impact of war on international economy
01:47with a special focus on energy security concerns.
01:52The External Affairs Minister also met ambassadors of all the GCC countries.
01:57Remember, for India, the one-crore diaspora living and working in Gulf countries,
02:04their safety, their well-being, all of this are a primary concern.
02:10Incidentally, two Indian LPG tankers, Jagvasanth and Pine Gas,
02:15they've successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz.
02:18They are currently being escorted home by Indian Navy warships.
02:21The two gas tankers are carrying about 93,000 metric tons of LPG to India.
02:27Before Jagvasanth and Pine Gas, you'd recall Shivalik and Nanda Devi
02:32had also crossed the Strait of Hormuz.
02:34That was on the 14th of March and Jagladki carrying crude oil on the 18th of March.
02:40From what we've been able to learn, there are other Indian ships,
02:45other tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, both on either side of the strait.
02:51And the effort is to ensure they are also permitted to cross over safely.
02:57India's dialogue and diplomacy and India's relationship with all the stakeholders in the region
03:05puts India in that unique position to, one, ensure sea lanes of communication
03:10and especially Indian interests are best protected and perhaps the road to peace.
03:17We'll talk about that.
03:18We'll explore those possibilities.
03:19But first, listen in to U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gore, an exclusive conversation on India Today.
03:31Ambassador, I want to just quote your tweet on social media
03:35where you say that President Donald Trump just spoke with Prime Minister Modi.
03:39They discussed the ongoing situation in the Middle East,
03:42including the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
03:45What more can you add, Ambassador, to that conversation?
03:50Good evening. It's a pleasure to join you tonight on India Today.
03:54The president had a very good call with Prime Minister Modi,
03:57and the two leaders discussed the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
04:03As you and your viewers know, the Strait of Hormuz is considered part of international waters.
04:10And so the United States maintains a position that nobody should be able to hold this area hostage.
04:16We fully support this area to be open.
04:20We want this area to be navigable.
04:23We want ships to go through so energy can go out, not just for India, but the rest of the
04:27world.
04:27And so tonight, the two leaders had a very productive call.
04:32President Trump not only considers Prime Minister Modi a dear friend,
04:36but India is a vital partner.
04:37And this was a very good call between the two leaders
04:41so the Prime Minister can be appraised of the latest efforts and what is going on on the ground.
04:46Ambassador Gore, it was lovely speaking with you.
04:48You were there with us at the India Today conclave.
04:50I want to bring in my colleague Rohit as well, who's joining us from Washington.
04:53But I'd like you, you know, just to ask you one question before Rohit also has a question for you.
04:58Ambassador Gore, was there a request in this conversation, you know,
05:01for India to join the mission to open the Strait of Hormuz?
05:07Without getting into too much detail, because it was a private conversation,
05:11so it's not for me to reveal any of those details.
05:13But as I shared online, the key to this, and I think the whole world agrees,
05:20that nobody should be able to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage.
05:24Right now there's only one country, one belligerent country, Iran,
05:27that is trying to blockade this area.
05:30And to the United States, and I hope to the rest of the world, that is unacceptable.
05:34Because energy costs, you know, cooking and LPG and LNG and gas and natural gas,
05:42those things should be able to go through international waters
05:45without any one country trying to bully the rest of the world.
05:49And so that was the primary goal, is to discuss the importance
05:52of maintaining that the Strait of Hormuz is open.
05:55And India is a vital partner to the United States.
05:58And so President Trump is always happy to make sure that Prime Minister Modi
06:02is appraised of what is happening.
06:05Rohit, do you have a question? Go ahead.
06:08Mr. Gaw, thank you so much for doing this.
06:09You know, one last question. I know you're running short on time.
06:12We've also heard about a lot of back channels that have been established in the region,
06:16including, you know, Egypt and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and India.
06:20Just to go back to the first question that was asked,
06:23I mean, what role has India played in ensuring that these talks go through
06:27and what role is India playing in these negotiations that will happen during this week?
06:34Look, I think that's a great question, Rohit.
06:36And it's always great to speak to you, my friend.
06:39But that's a question that should be posed to the Indian government.
06:43The one thing that I will say is the United States always welcomes India's input.
06:48Not only is Prime Minister Modi a leader of an incredibly important country,
06:54but he's also been around as a leader for a very long time.
06:57And so he's someone that has had a phenomenal relationship with President Trump for many years.
07:02And so President Trump is always keen to engage him, to engage India.
07:08And so this was a very productive, substantial phone call without getting into too many details.
07:15But the big takeaway, I think, for everybody is that the Strait of Hormuz needs to be reopened.
07:21There's no reason that ships are lining up trying to get out,
07:24and they don't know if they're going to be sunk or not.
07:26And so we hope the world will line up and say, open up the Strait of Hormuz,
07:31because this is not acceptable at this time.
07:34I appreciate joining you tonight on India Today.
07:36Thank you. Thank you, Ambassador.
07:41Now, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical maritime choke points for global energy trade.
07:48It is a narrow waterway that's located between Iran to the north and Oman to the south.
07:54We're attempting to show you that Strait of Hormuz.
07:56It connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and then the Arabian Sea.
08:01And this Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, it serves as the only sea route for oil and gas exports from
08:08the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and then the open oceans and the global market.
08:13Now, just take a look at the Strait of Hormuz and ships that cross through very slowly.
08:20It's a two-mile-wide shipping lane.
08:23That's right.
08:24Just a two-mile-wide shipping lane.
08:26One inbound and one outbound.
08:29It's separated, of course, by a two-mile buffer zone.
08:33The Strait is deep enough for the world's largest super tankers, largest crude oil tankers to cross through.
08:40Now, why is this so important for the world right now?
08:45Strategic control currently is being exercised by Iran.
08:49Now, when you look at that map, Iran borders the northern side and Iran has tremendous military presence.
08:56Iranian armed forces, Iranian navy, they have a lot of bunkers in that area.
09:01They have a lot of undersea drones in these waters plus sea mines.
09:07They've threatened the moment military ships come in into the Strait of Hormuz, they will then use the sea mines.
09:17And that is a strict no-no for global shipping and for military operations, unless minesweepers are brought in.
09:24So, Oman controls, as you can see in that map, Oman controls the south side.
09:28The Strait actually handles enormous volumes of energy shipment.
09:33Take oil, for example.
09:35In the year 2024-2025, an average of 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products pass
09:43through this.
09:44Around 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas, LNG gas trade also transits the Strait.
09:51The main exporters, when you look at that wider map of the Persian Gulf, you have countries like Saudi Arabia,
09:56Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iran and Qatar.
10:01All these countries, all the GCC countries, their outbound cargo moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
10:10India is the world's third largest crude oil importer and consumer.
10:15India imports close to 80% to 85% of all crude oil needs, making energy security very, very significant.
10:24And India is highly dependent, therefore, on secure and stable sea lanes of communication.
10:30That is one of India's top priorities.
10:33SLOC or sea lanes of communication must be open.
10:37The Strait of Hormuz, therefore, is a critical lifeline for India.
10:41A large amount of our energy imports originate in this Persian Gulf.
10:47Prime Minister Narendra Modi, once again, calmed tensions within the country.
10:52Because there was some panic with the Strait shut.
10:57Of course, some Indian ships, like I mentioned, they've been able to cross through.
11:00But multiple ships remain stranded.
11:03And the road ahead actually threatens to be very difficult.
11:08Prime Minister addressed the Rajya Sabah today.
11:10He acknowledged concerns arising out of this conflict.
11:13The Prime Minister assured the country that the government is taking steps to minimize the impact on our people.
11:19However, the opposition led by the Congress, they continue to question the government's foreign policy approach.
11:24From concerns over LPG supply to Pakistan attempting, Pakistan, a state sponsor of radical Islamist terror,
11:30attempting to position itself as a key global peacemaker.
11:33Opposition argues that the government's foreign policy is falling short.
11:39The government says it's acting decisively in Indian interest.
11:44India's key concerns are to ensure that the next several months, and the Prime Minister did indicate that,
11:50next several months are going to be extremely difficult.
11:53He drew a parallel with the COVID times, that everyone needs to come together.
11:58It has to be a national approach.
12:00The centre, the states, government departments, the people, everyone coming together,
12:06to tide through these very difficult times.
12:08And seven special task forces have also been formed.
12:12Inter-ministerial groups have been formed.
12:14Identify a problem, and then quickly find a solution.
12:17I'll get you much more on that story, but first, we get to this report.
12:25The tremors of the war is also being felt at home in India.
12:30Amid rising LPG and crude crisis, PM Modi has delivered his second address on the conflict,
12:36this time in the Upper House, just a day after speaking in the Lok Sabha.
12:40In Rajya Sabha, PM Modi has reiterated India's consistent pitch for peace, dialogue and diplomacy,
12:46urging all sides to step back from escalation.
13:08He has also outlined the government's strategy to tackle the follow-up.
13:37Meanwhile, the Prime Minister has also spoken to President Trump.
13:40He has exchanged views on the situation in West Asia.
13:44PM Modi has reiterated that India supports de-escalation and restoration of peace at the earliest.
13:50He has also emphasised that the state of Hormuz remains open.
13:55But the government's stance has come under sharp attack from the opposition yet again.
13:59Leader of opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, has reiterated PM compromise Draga.
14:28The criticism has also intensified over reports of Pakistan's role as a mediator
14:33in the West Asia conflict.
14:35Congress has also questioned why India is absent from the diplomatic table.
14:39This while Pakistan steps into a lead mediation role, raising concerns over India's influence in global negotiations.
15:14As the war reshaves global alignments, the battle lines are not just on the ground, but also in India's domestic
15:22politics.
15:22Bureau report, India today.
15:28So the Congress Party finds the government's foreign policy wanting.
15:32You heard the Congress Party leader and spokesperson, Pawan Khera, saying,
15:38Pakistan is made of four days and India is not even in that building.
15:42Joining me now on this special broadcast,
15:44we wanted to get analysts to discuss and debate this threadbare.
15:49We have Garima Daswani, national spokesperson of the Congress Party,
15:52joining us on this broadcast.
15:53Madam, welcome.
15:54I have Sushant Sareen, senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation,
15:58somebody who watches Pakistan and the region very closely joining me on the broadcast,
16:02and Sandeep Unnithan, my colleague with me on this broadcast.
16:05Garima, welcome.
16:07Why is it that the Congress Party finds the country's foreign policy wanting?
16:14Two specific points to start with.
16:16Let me get a response on that and then we move on to the next two points.
16:20Go on, ma'am.
16:21Good evening, everyone.
16:22And thank you for having me on India today, Gaurav.
16:26Well, Rahul Gandhi has raised legitimate questions
16:30because questioning the government is not questioning the nation.
16:34So let me begin by saying this very clearly to you, Gaurav,
16:38that India's foreign policy must always reflect strength, consistency,
16:43and strategic clarity, which was missing.
16:46I mean, if there are gaps in our foreign policy,
16:49there ought to be questions because India has always been a leader in global diplomacy.
16:55But leadership requires consistency, not optics.
16:58And what is happening here?
16:59You are running a line here that today is the 25th day of the war.
17:04And today is the time when Trump is calling Mr. Modi.
17:09What was Modi doing all this while?
17:12I mean, we have played a key and pivotal role always whenever there has been a global crisis.
17:18But what is happening?
17:19A person like Asim Munir is playing a key role as a peacemaker in Islamabad.
17:24And what is India doing?
17:25So what is going on in the country?
17:27I mean, this is, for us, it is quite embarrassing that such a grave crisis is going on.
17:33India has always been a strength.
17:36I mean, we have had stable relationships with our neighborhood.
17:40But today, we have tensions with China.
17:43We have, you know, strained relationships with regional neighbors of ours.
17:47So basically, what I want to say is that asking questions is not anti-national
17:52as it is projected by the BJP spokesperson.
17:55It is essential in a democracy.
17:57Since you've raised multiple points, I'll get both Sandeep.
18:01You'd appreciate both Sandeep and Sushant understand foreign policy very well.
18:07Sushant Sareen, you want to go first.
18:10Pakistan is being a child, international mediation is doing as a man.
18:14Asim Munir and India is not even in that building.
18:18Yeah, Gaurav, sometimes I feel very depressed being an Indian
18:21when I hear these kind of silly statements coming out from responsible people.
18:26You know, this thing about this, we should act like a self-assured nation.
18:33Let me give you two instances when Pakistan was becoming Chaudhary.
18:37One was in 1969 when Pakistan was mediating between the United States and China, right?
18:43What was the result of it?
18:44Two years later, Pakistan was divided into half.
18:48Now, once then later on in 2020, it was playing mediator between Taliban and the United States.
18:54What is the result?
18:55You can see what is happening on the AFPAC border.
18:58You should not jump into conflicts and trying to play peacemaker unless you are asked by everybody
19:05to become part of it.
19:07Otherwise, you get your fingers burned, right?
19:09What is the big achievement that if Pakistan, supposing there is some negotiation which happens
19:14in Pakistan for some kind of a peace deal out here?
19:19What is the big deal in it?
19:20Let there be peace.
19:21Will there be peace only for Pakistan?
19:23Will it be for everybody else?
19:25What will Pakistan get out of?
19:26But wouldn't Pakistan's stock go up?
19:28That's the question that Garima ji seems to be asking.
19:30That Pakistan's stock will go up and India's stock will go down.
19:35Somebody explained to me how Pakistan's stock goes up.
19:39Somebody explained to me Pakistan was flying very high that we have signed this strategic
19:44mutual defense agreement with the Saudis.
19:46Right now, they are ducking for cover because they don't want to live up to those commitments.
19:50Do you want to get into commitments that you cannot live up to?
19:54And one of the reasons that, you know, all these anya janias that they are doing, what
19:59is the reason for it?
20:00One of the reasons for that is because they don't want this thing to go beyond what it
20:05is already gone because otherwise they will have to jump into this fright.
20:08Do we want to jump into either one side?
20:11We don't.
20:11Sandeep, you want to quickly respond?
20:13You want to quickly respond?
20:14Does Pakistan have an upper hand before I bring in Garima Daswani?
20:18You know, Gaurav, very quickly, this peace process that you're talking of,
20:22these talks right now, they're coming even as the United States is preparing for a fresh
20:28round of conflict.
20:29We are hearing those reports of the 82nd Airborne moving in, those amphibious ready groups coming
20:34in into theatre.
20:36They're amassing forces for another round of conflict.
20:39It could well be the case that these talks that have been called to are a tactical pause,
20:45as we discussed yesterday.
20:47It could be just buying time for those forces to come into theatre, and then they could once
20:52again go back to fighting.
20:53And that would leave whoever was playing mediator with egg on their faces.
20:58So, we have to be very careful with this kind of war.
21:01We should stay as far away from possible unless, as Sushant said, unless both parties invited
21:07us to be mediators.
21:09We should stay away from this.
21:11This is a bizarre war, Gaurav.
21:12The United States has gone into this conflict, thinking it could achieve a swift victory.
21:18That hasn't happened for almost a month now.
21:20They're fighting.
21:21This could well be the United States-Ukraine moment, Gaurav.
21:26Okay.
21:26And should we be rushing in?
21:28There's an old saying, fools Russian where angels fare to tread.
21:31And Garima Dasouni ji, you remember how the government was being criticized that foreign
21:36policy of India has failed when Taliban took control of Kabul and then DG ISI was having
21:43a cup of tea at the Serena Hotel and everyone was praising Pakistan's foreign policy.
21:48You remember that, right?
21:49That wasn't too long ago, 2021, similar faces, same leaders were saying exactly similar stuff
21:55that what a victory for Pakistan and what a defeat for India.
21:585,000 Pakistanis have died since.
22:01Is that the kind of victory that people are looking for?
22:04Gaurav, what I'm questioning here is that the US Vice President wants us coming for talks
22:09to Islamabad with Asim Munir.
22:11A country like Pakistan, which has nurtured and sheltered terrorists, is now becoming a part
22:17of crucial global decisions.
22:19While India is missing from the scene, that is my question.
22:22That, I mean, what has India been doing?
22:26India has never been so distanced, so isolated from the major global issues in the past, from
22:32Manmohan Singh till today.
22:34We have always been the decision makers.
22:37We have always been there for the peacekeeping.
22:40I mean, not even a single statement came for the last 25 years, 25 days.
22:46The war is happening.
22:47I mean, Pakistan doesn't become a peacemaker overnight.
22:51Why, if that perception is building, if that perception is building, then there is trouble in our foreign policy.
22:59Why are we even allowing it?
23:01I want to understand, I simply want to understand what is more important for India to be able to get
23:09our oil, gas out of there, remain engaged with all the stakeholders.
23:15Go on, you say you want to complete your point.
23:17Go ahead, complete your point, ma'am.
23:18Yeah, yeah, Gaurav, I just want to say that a foreign policy is all about perception and credibility.
23:23So what are we building?
23:25Aren't we seeing gaps in our foreign policy?
23:28Why are we even allowing, you know, a country like Pakistan to be a mediator?
23:34That is what my leader Rahul Gandhi is trying to pinpoint.
23:38I mean, the responsibility of an opposition leader is like a watchdog.
23:44He has to tell the government that, look, where we stand today.
23:48I mean, we have so much of respect.
23:51Okay, Sushant Sarin wants to respond to you, ma'am, on the aspect of that we are being, you know,
23:57Pakistan is on censor stage and we aren't.
23:59That's the point you've repeatedly made.
24:00But go ahead, Sushant Sarin.
24:01Yes, I don't want to go into a long history of how much respect we had and how much we
24:06didn't have and what that respect got for us and what it didn't get for us.
24:10Because otherwise, we can take the whole evening and we can keep discussing it.
24:14But Garima ji should understand, Pakistan did not become a state sponsor of terrorism in 2021 or later.
24:22It was a state sponsor of terrorism from 2004 to 2014 also, which is when Pakistan was playing a pivotal
24:32role in the U.S. war in Afghanistan.
24:35Now, that was a state sponsor of terrorism, which was doing terrorism against the U.S.
24:39This is how international diplomacy works.
24:42You need a state like Pakistan to bloody itself, to become a mercenary.
24:47Do you want India to become a mercenary state so that we can strut around the rest of the world
24:52and say that, okay, we are also playing a role.
24:54What is the role Pakistan is playing right now?
24:57They go with a begging ball all over the place.
24:59Is that what you want to become?
25:01Is that the kind of role you seek for yourself?
25:03You say that India has been totally isolated in the region.
25:07You have a new government in Bangladesh, which is a responsible government, which is reaching out to us.
25:12The bitterness of that one and a half years of that clown, Yunus, has gone.
25:17And now the relationship is coming back on the rails.
25:20In Nepal, you have a new government, which is also looking for good relations with India.
25:24In Sri Lanka, you have a government which is looking for good relations with India.
25:28You want to spoil the perception of India to shine your own politics, which is fair enough.
25:34You can do whatever politics you want to do.
25:36Nobody begrudges you that we are a democracy, a free country.
25:39You can do whatever you want to do.
25:41But the question is, you first besmirch India's image.
25:44And then you think India's image is being besmirched.
25:47How does that work?
25:48It doesn't make sense.
25:49I want to also bring in Ray Locker into this conversation, who joins us on this.
25:55It's day 25 of West Asia war.
25:57And less talks, more missiles and drone strikes is what we notice.
26:03Ray Locker, welcome.
26:04What we are also noticing is less diplomacy.
26:08Donald Trump claims back-channel dialogue is underway with Iran.
26:12Iran, of course, is denying it.
26:14But reports indicate there are several nations that are working through the diplomatic back-channels,
26:19pushing for a ceasefire, even as diplomatic efforts appear to gather pace.
26:24The situation on ground remains extremely volatile, even as we speak.
26:30And Ray Locker, how do you look at the current situation right now?
26:34Are we looking at genuine peace or a lull before the real storm comes in,
26:39when U.S. Marines come into this region?
26:43Well, I wouldn't be surprised if U.S. Marines land somewhere,
26:47which I think would be a grave mistake, because they're going to be sitting ducks
26:50and targets for a whole series of attacks.
26:54I think everybody in the region and around the world who's concerned about
26:58the world economy and peace is calling anybody they can,
27:03trying to find a way to make this stop.
27:06And so Pakistan's doing what it can.
27:09India's doing what it can.
27:10And all sorts of people, whether they have official rules or not,
27:14are trying to cut some kind of deal and get to Trump to make him stop doing what he's doing.
27:20But I don't know how effective any of that's going to be,
27:22because he's going to do whatever he wants until the pain gets bad enough where he's going to stop.
27:29Will he do what he wants or does he want to do what Israel wants?
27:33And Israel clearly doesn't want to stop.
27:36Well, Israel definitely feels like it's achieving its objectives.
27:40I don't know how much, you know, to believe that Netanyahu is pulling Trump's strings on all this.
27:47I mean, Trump pretty much does whatever he wants.
27:50But it does look to the naked eye that Netanyahu is doing what Trump, controlling Trump.
27:57I don't really think that's necessarily true.
27:59I think Trump wants to do what he is, what he's doing in the region,
28:03because it makes him look like a tough guy.
28:05And it's all about projecting his image.
28:09Eventually, he's going to realize this is not a winning, winning strategy.
28:15So far, it does appear it's not a winning strategy.
28:18But let me let me now throw this open for a wider discussion.
28:21I have Mohamed Saleh joining me, non-resident fellow at the Foreign Policy Research.
28:25He's student expert on Middle East joining us.
28:28Or Shakir, the U.S. correspondent at Israel Hayom, deputy director of Jewish Virtual Library joining us.
28:34Ray Loka with us.
28:35Sushant Sareen remains with us.
28:36So let me let me just try and understand for a moment what should one make of the conversation
28:41between U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi
28:45and the efforts that are on in this region, you know, perhaps whether it's Egypt or Turkey.
28:53Mohamed Saleh, does it appear that there is a conversation to bring a pause or an end to this conflict?
29:02It's good to be with you.
29:03I would definitely say there is such a conversation.
29:07But whether it would actually lead to, you know, ending and halting the hostilities, we are not, you know, we
29:15cannot be so sure about it.
29:17We have seen in the past that there have been different, you know, various rounds of negotiations.
29:21And at times when everyone was kind of hopeful that some sort of a positive outcome would come out of
29:29those negotiations,
29:30we saw that the negotiations were actually halted and some sort of a military conflict broke out, including this time
29:38around.
29:38So I think a lot of the a lot of people in the region and beyond would certainly welcome the
29:44prospects of serious negotiations.
29:46But one cannot be really totally certain or, you know, hopeful even that the negotiations would necessarily lead to some
29:55sort of a ceasefire and permanent halting of the fighting.
30:01So, Orsh Shagat, you think Israel would be happy?
30:05Should there be a ceasefire or would it be a repeat of the 2025 situation, 12 days of war, aim
30:12half achieved and a ceasefire only enables Iran to become stronger?
30:16Well, it really depends on what we're trying to achieve here.
30:20If it's Trump's stated goals of zero enrichment, the taking down the ballistic missile program, eliminating the support of the
30:30Ayatollah regime to the proxies in the region.
30:33I speak, of course, of Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen and proxies in Iraq
30:40and elsewhere.
30:41Then, of course, that we would be happy.
30:44The only problem is that the Iranian Ayatollah regime is not exactly known for its pragmatism, for its ability to
30:51make actual tangible concessions in order to reach peace,
30:55because it's very strongly committed to what he sees as its own role, to see Israel's destruction, to create havoc
31:05in the region.
31:06So, if the Iranians are finally able, after multiple negotiations, to come to their senses and come to the point
31:14of negotiations in good faith and not just stalling time,
31:18then it would very much please Israel, so long as the terms that Trump stated are actually enforced and maintained.
31:25But if not, we're just setting ourselves up for the next round of escalation.
31:30The next round of escalation, and this time, Ray Loka, before I bring in Sushant Sarin and Sandeep,
31:35this time, Iran could perhaps rush through to have its bomb, because once it has its bomb, it'll be safer,
31:43and perhaps next year or two years later, there wouldn't be another attack.
31:47Do you look at it that way, that a wounded regime is far more dangerous than the regime staying in
31:54its original form?
31:56Yeah, I mean, that's traditionally what happens in situations like this.
32:00You look at North Korea, I mean, it's a menace, and it hasn't, has the bomb, but it hasn't been
32:07attacked for precisely that reason.
32:09And that's why they built the bomb, and I think that's why the Iranians want one too.
32:14And let's go back to, we had a deal with Iran, it was stopping their nuclear program, keeping them from
32:20getting a bomb.
32:21Trump broke it, thought he could get a bit better deal, he didn't get a better deal, and then he
32:26started a war.
32:27And that's where we are now.
32:29And in your appreciation, whatever you're looking at, whatever you're listening to,
32:35you know, the two marine expeditionary units, the 82nd Airborne, of course, they haven't got orders to move as yet,
32:40but some of the exercises have been curtailed.
32:42Is that posturing, or is that actually moving to take control of Iranian oil or, you know, some of their
32:49islands, including Khark?
32:51Well, it could be, I mean, it could be either one.
32:54I mean, we're not going to telegraph everything we do in terms of, you know, military strategy.
32:59A lot of times, you look back in history, warring nations do one thing, make it look like they're going
33:04to do another.
33:05I mean, we saw that with the Normandy invasion in 1944, it looked like they're going to attack the Pas
33:11de Calais.
33:11We did not, we went to Normandy instead.
33:13That's traditional.
33:15Whether Trump is that good of a strategist, I doubt it, but that often happens.
33:21Okay.
33:22Now, let me for a moment delve on President Trump's conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
33:28So, Shansarine, what do you make of this conversation?
33:30Decode Ambassador Sergio Gore saying President Trump spoke to the Prime Minister, they discussed the ongoing situation, including the importance
33:37of keeping Strait of Hormuz open.
33:40So, Gaurav, given the circumstances in which this conversation was taking place, I think it's a no-brainer they were
33:46talking about the situation in the Middle East, right?
33:49The question is, and the statements which have come from Ambassador Gore and from Prime Minister Modi,
33:56those are pretty boilerplate kind of statements that, you know, we spoke about this issue and we decided we'll remain
34:02in touch, etc.
34:04You really get no information from that, except for the fact that they were focusing on this particular issue.
34:11My issue is, what was the ask from the American side for India?
34:19Were they asking us to do something?
34:21Were they asking us to use either a…
34:23For a naval contribution?
34:24Use some military contribution.
34:26Can we assist them in any way in reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
34:31Can we use our diplomatic heft with the Iranians to cool them down?
34:36Can we do something?
34:37So, what was the ask?
34:38I have no idea.
34:39And similarly, what was the ask from our side, from the Americans?
34:43Did we ask them?
34:45Did we make any suggestions to them on how things could be cooled down, on what they should or should
34:51not do to escalate this issue and to de-escalate it, etc., etc.?
34:57We have absolutely no idea on what that conversation was.
35:00And until then, we are basically firing in the dark about what exactly we spoke about.
35:06Then, there is the entire issue of opening the Strait of Hormuz.
35:10Listen, if that is the big leverage that the Iranians have at this point in time, why would they give
35:15it up without something substantive in return?
35:18And the question is, what is something substantive that you are going to give them in return?
35:22Now, if you say that we will stop bombing you or we will not put boots on the ground on
35:28any of your oil facilities like the Karg Island, that's not good enough.
35:32Because you put boots on the ground on Karg Island, they will target some other oil and gas facility in
35:40the region.
35:41How does that help anybody?
35:43It doesn't.
35:43It just leads you up the escalation chain.
35:46And clearly, all indications right now are, Sandeep, America is not on top of the escalation ladder.
35:52But what is your reading of the Prime Minister's response where he says, received a call from President Trump, had
35:58a useful exchange of views on the situation in West Asia.
36:01India supports de-escalation and restoration of peace at the earliest, ensuring that Strait of Hormuz remains open, secure and
36:09accessible is essential for the whole world.
36:11We agreed to stay in touch.
36:14Well, you know, Gaurav, there's a reason that the United States has not attacked Iran, despite this option being on
36:21the table before successive U.S. presidents for almost a quarter of a century.
36:25This 21st century, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran was mentioned as the third possible place where the United States would go.
36:33They chose diplomacy.
36:34They chose sanctions.
36:36They chose every other mechanism except a full-scale military assault.
36:40But the present regime, the present administration, in its wisdom, chose to go in for this operation without consulting anyone,
36:47without using any kind of mechanism, without consulting its allies.
36:52That's the most important thing, Gaurav.
36:53The United States has never gone into conflict without its allies.
36:57And now, you know, 25 days down the line, Iran is not bending, it's not breaking.
37:03You suddenly realize that you need to start calling up your old friends and who you, you know, not been
37:09very polite to in the past.
37:12You're suddenly realizing that maybe you need a NATO, maybe you need nations with warships that could help you, you
37:18know, in a crisis like this.
37:19That's precisely the reason why the United States needs allies, even as, you know, as strong as it is.
37:25It is the world's most powerful nation.
37:28It is a superpower, the only superpower.
37:30Despite that, it always goes in with allies and friends.
37:33And that's the reason.
37:34And now, 25 days later, possibly President Trump is realizing that, and, you know, India's stance has been very clear,
37:42Gaurav, from the beginning, we did not want this war.
37:44This war was literally forced upon everyone.
37:48This was taken everyone by surprise.
37:49And as I said, the 1991 Gulf crisis, that affected us.
37:54All indications are, this war could last very long.
37:59Mohamed Saleh, is that also your reading?
38:02Even NATO partners, countries like Japan and South Korea, heavily dependent on the state of war moves.
38:07They're in favor of negotiation for a solution.
38:10Are we looking at de-escalation through this pause, or are we looking at further escalation?
38:16You know, this temporary pause buildup, and then, you know, the number of cargo planes that are moving, the number
38:22of ships that seem to be moving.
38:24It just appears that there is further mobilization taking place.
38:29It's a really good question, and I think it could go either way.
38:32I think looking at this from the Iranian perspective, they would probably, you know, consider this to be a preparation
38:39for some sort of a larger military campaign by the U.S. and Israel.
38:44They have had this experience in the past, back in June, and also this time around in February, when, you
38:51know, in the middle of negotiations, all of a sudden, Israel and the U.S. started launching military campaigns.
38:59So, the Iranians would be most, most probably very cautious, and they would very likely think, you know, that this
39:08is, as you also mentioned, some sort of a buildup for a larger military action.
39:13Because if you look at the objectives set by the U.S. and Israel in terms of preventing Iran from
39:20building a nuclear bomb, limiting Iranian missile arsenals, and, you know, missile building capabilities, and also dismantling the Iranian proxy
39:31network in the region, none of these have been really achieved.
39:35Yes, we have, you know, seen some degradation of the Iranian military capabilities, especially with missile capabilities, but there is
39:44no guarantee that Iran is not going to, you know, work toward building a bomb.
39:49There is no guarantee that their missile stockpile and missile building capabilities have been degraded to a level, you know,
39:58that would not pose a serious threat.
40:00And their proxy network, especially in Iraq, and to a lesser extent, in Lebanon are, you know, very much active.
40:07So, give me a moment. I want to talk about Ghalibaf, the person everyone's talking about, you know, he's the
40:15person, the Speaker of the Parliament that the United States apparently is engaging with behind the scenes.
40:22So, one face emerging from the shadows in this so-called leadership vacuum is Mohamed Bagir Ghalibaf.
40:29He's the Speaker of Iran's Parliament, but he has roots which go really deep in this system, in the IRGC.
40:39So, Ghalibaf is a former Brigadier General of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a man who is actually shaped by
40:47Iran's military and security establishment.
40:51And he's a long-time loyalist, seen as a long-time loyalist of the Khamenei ecosystem.
40:58Strong backing, not just in the military setup or the IRGC setup, but also the religious setup, the clerical setup
41:07in Iran.
41:08Most importantly, he's also not just close to late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but equally close to Mujtava Khamenei's inner circle.
41:18Now, in Iran, it is said it was Mujtava Khamenei who would look at all promotions within the IRGC and
41:26he rose in that ecosystem.
41:28Many argue after Ali Larijani, he's playing a very, very critical role.
41:34Of course, there's another replacement for Ali Larijani, but the Speaker of their Parliament is very powerful.
41:40At a time when leadership remains uncertain, Ghalibaf is seen as a key power broker, bridging the gap between IRGC,
41:48the religious leadership and the political class.
41:51And now there are multiple reports that seem to indicate he could be the face of the back-channel negotiations
41:57with the United States of America,
41:59a charge that he, according to reports in Iran, has denied.
42:05Ghalibaf and Iran both officially say there are no talks happening.
42:09But reports seem to indicate that he's already had one round of talks, there's another round of talks that's happening.
42:14Now, who has replaced Ali Larijani, who had emerged as one of the most powerful faces in Iran?
42:21The person who's taken over the security establishment after the death of Ali Larijani is Mohammed Bagheer Zolghadar.
42:29Now, he again is a hardliner.
42:31He's a former Brigadier General in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, one of the most powerful military forces in Iran.
42:38Now, over the years, Zolghadar has remained deeply embedded in the security architecture of Iran.
42:47He's serving as the Secretary of the Experiency Council.
42:50He holds multiple key positions across the system.
42:53He's, in fact, seen as a key cog in this very powerful system.
42:58He's led the IRGC's irregular warfare at its headquarters and that gives him direct experience in both covert operations and
43:07asymmetric warfare.
43:09His elevation is extremely significant.
43:11It places a known IRGC hardliner at the centre of Iran's security and decision-making architecture in midst of this
43:20conflict.
43:21And I once again want to bring in Orshakid into this conversation.
43:24If the aim of the decapitation was a regime change, is Iran sending out the signal, whoever replaces them is
43:33equally a hardliner.
43:35He's come through the same system.
43:39Well, I think one of the key things to remember is that the regime change per excellence is not really
43:46a stated official goal of the United States.
43:50One of the key things that were said in the initial remarks made by Trump when he waged this war
43:55is that it's up to the people of Iran if they're able to, you know, take fate into their own
44:03hands,
44:05take destiny into their own hands and basically topple the existing regime and turn it into one that is acceptable
44:13to the people of Iran themselves.
44:14That is something that was articulated very deliberately because there is an underlying understanding that the toppling of the regime
44:23is not a certain thing.
44:24Now, what has the Trump administration indicated is that it wants to be able to work with a pragmatic individual
44:32or a pragmatic leadership circle within the regime so long as it is able and willing to stick to the
44:39parameters of Trump's terms of ending the war.
44:42Now, is that changing the goalpost in your view, Mohamed Soleil, that they started with one regime, they started with
44:51Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decapitated him, replaced by Mujtava Khamenei, his son.
44:56Ali Larijani decapitated but replaced by another IRGC hardliner.
45:01They're talking to another IRGC hardliner.
45:04What is your reading of what has been achieved in the past 25 days?
45:11Sorry, your voice was breaking up.
45:13I didn't get your question.
45:14Can you repeat that?
45:15What has been achieved in the past 25 days if one hardliner is replaced by another hardliner?
45:22Right.
45:23Well, in that sense, you are right.
45:25We have had basically, you know, a lot of the IRGC figures now come to the fore and, you know,
45:32people very close to them, including Ayatollah Mushabah Khamenei.
45:35But we have also, you know, to take into consideration that the Iranian regime as is, is really running, you
45:45know, very low on sort of influential figures who would be capable of leading, you know, the regime through this
45:53tumultuous period.
45:56Kalibaf, in particular, is a very interesting case.
45:59He's also probably the only figure inside the IRGC establishment or with connection to IRGC establishment, you know, that had
46:08the credibility to act as some sort of a bridge between the military bureaucracy, the civilian bureaucracy, and also the
46:17clerical establishment in the country.
46:20So, you know, the calculation on the part of the U.S. and Israel in particular seems to be that
46:26if they can, you know, continue to successfully target and eliminate figures which, you know, sort of have also brand
46:35recognition that are recognized across the various levels of the government and across the various pillars of power, that, you
46:44know, that they might have a chance to actually cause the regime to collapse and fall down.
46:49But we are not there yet totally and we don't know if, you know, this kind of flammable situation.
46:53Okay, give me a moment as breaking news coming in.
46:55Pakistan continues to offer to mediate.
46:58In fact, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif has taken to social media platform to post.
47:04Pakistan stands ready and honored to be the host to facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks for a comprehensive settlement of
47:12the ongoing conflict.
47:13What is extremely significant, Donald Trump has reposted Shabazz Sharif's offer on Truth Social.
47:21How do you read this, Sushant Sarin?
47:2230 seconds that I have on this part of the show.
47:24How do you read this?
47:25Donald Trump retweeting Shabazz Sharif.
47:27I think maybe the Pakistanis have given them some assurances that they can get the Iranians on board.
47:33And this is Pakistan's way to find international relevance.
47:39But asides of that, Gaurav, given the kind of situation which exists and the fact that it has been spread
47:47around, the word has been spread around,
47:49that the U.S. and Israel are looking for people within the IRGC and the Iranian establishment who can actually
47:58make a break with the past establishment and set in motion a new establishment.
48:03And then when you start airing the names of people, whether it is Mr. Galebaaf or not or it's somebody
48:10else,
48:10but the moment you start announcing somebody's name, you're basically giving him the case of death.
48:16Now, these are negotiations.
48:18Sandeep, 30 seconds.
48:19What do you make of Donald Trump reposting Shabazz Sharif?
48:22Is that getting Pakistan off the hook of being a terror sponsor?
48:27Absolutely, Gaurav.
48:28You know, it doesn't really matter so much for the United States because Pakistan's existence, as Sushant pointed out earlier
48:33in the program,
48:34has been to be of utility to the United States as and when the need arises.
48:38Whether it is bases or whether it is, you know, building bridges with China or with the Taliban or with,
48:47in this case, with Iran.
48:48That is Pakistan's utility.
48:50That's the sole reason for Pakistan's existence, Gaurav.
48:53We'll track that story very closely.
48:55I want to thank all my guests.
48:56I have watched Iran's next move after President Donald Trump claimed talks are underway.
49:00Will Tehran actually now rethink its strategy or stay firm on its position long-held?
49:06To understand Iran's perspective, India Today's Foreign Affairs Editor, Gita Mohan, spoke to their Foreign Ministry spokesperson.
49:12We get you a snippet from that conversation.
49:14That entire conversation comes up at 10.30 tonight.
49:17Listen in.
49:24Yeah, thank you.
49:25As we have made it clear yesterday, there is no talks or negotiations between Iran and the United States,
49:36as it has not been such a negotiation for the past 25 days of their illegal war against Iran.
49:43And you see, we have a very catastrophic experience, I should say, with the United States diplomacy.
49:52We were attacked two times within a span of nine months when we were in the middle of a negotiating
50:00process to resolve the nuclear issue.
50:03So, this was a betrayal of diplomacy.
50:06It is a very famous phrase in Iran right now because it happened not once but twice.
50:16So, no one can trust the United States diplomacy.
50:21So, our position is very clear on what they have claimed.
50:26Right now, our brave armed forces are focused on defending Iran's territory and sovereignty against this brutal illegal war.
50:36Right.
50:37Mr. Bagai, this is a very, very serious situation when it comes to the global economy.
50:43The world is watching what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz.
50:47In such a scenario, I'm just asking if there is a possibility of having mediators maybe get involved so that
50:56there is some trust factor in talks.
51:00So, can we look at indirect talks between Iran and U.S. at this point?
51:05You can ask the Omanifari minister.
51:10He can talk about his experience of mediating between Iran and the United States.
51:18So, I think mediators, the institution of mediation also was badly betrayed by the United States.
51:26Look, I understand that the world economy is impacted by what is going on in our region.
51:34But this is not our fault.
51:36You are concerned about the price of oil, the price of groceries.
51:43But we are concerned about the life of our citizens.
51:46Our people are being brutally killed and maimed by the United States and Israel.
51:52Only in a single accident, in a single case of attack on 28 February, more than 170 innocent kids were
52:02slaughtered in the city of Minab.
52:05So, we are defending ourselves what the impact, the consequences for the world economy is directly because of the United
52:16States and Israel reckless illegal war they have imposed on Iran and on the whole region.
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