00:00Joining me now is a senior Pakistani journalist, editor of the Friday Times,
00:05one of their most distinguished political commentators, Najam Sethi joins me.
00:08Appreciate you're joining us, Mr. Sethi.
00:11All eyes on Islamabad.
00:12Your sense, what role is Pakistan playing here?
00:16Is it a mediator?
00:17Is it simply a messenger taking messages from one side to the other?
00:22What exactly, according to you, is the role that Pakistan is playing
00:26in trying to achieve a breakthrough in these talks?
00:30Thank you, Rajdeep.
00:31Yes, I think it started off simply as a third party trying to facilitate the talks.
00:38But I think progressively, Pakistan has ended up being a bit of a mediator
00:44in trying to convince one or the other side to concede points so that the talks can take place.
00:52And I think that's where we are now because the Pakistani prime minister,
00:57the field marshal and the deputy prime minister, all have got on the phone and have been on the phone
01:02literally 24 hours a day trying to convince both sides to drop their maximalist positions
01:09and come for the talks.
01:10I think the situation in Islamabad until yesterday was that they were pretty sure that the Iranians would come.
01:19But then the Iranians took the position that Donald Trump had stepped back from the commitment
01:26and imposed the blockade.
01:28And I think that's what has sparked the atmosphere.
01:32And the Iranians don't want to seem to be going to Islamabad under some form of pressure,
01:36which is, of course, what it looks like after the capture of the Iranian ship by the Americans
01:44and then, of course, the American blockade.
01:47But I think the understanding was that Iran would open the straits
01:53and America would withdraw the blockade.
01:55And then the two would meet in Islamabad.
01:57The Iranians did their part, but the Americans did not.
02:00And I think that's where we are right now.
02:02And that's why in Iran itself, from what I understand,
02:05there are differences on how to deal with this issue within the Revolutionary Council.
02:13But there are those, Najib Sethi, who are saying that Pakistan is acting both on behalf of the United States
02:18in particular
02:19and also China, a country with which Pakistan has strong relationships.
02:23It's not insignificant that the Pakistan foreign minister has been in regular touch with his counterparts in Beijing.
02:29Beijing has a lot of influence with Tehran.
02:31So we are seeing Pakistan, in a way, playing the frontal role,
02:36while backroom is being controlled, many believe, by Beijing.
02:40And to some extent, by the United States.
02:42Do you go along with that?
02:43That it is China, really, which is perhaps the key player here?
02:48No, I don't think that's true.
02:51While China is a great ally of Iran, but China is behind the scenes.
02:56And I think the Chinese have made it no secret that they would like to see a ceasefire.
03:00They would like to see this matter sorted out.
03:03And they would like to see an end to the war.
03:05And they would like to see international relations play a role in all this.
03:09Pakistan, I think, found an opportunity to step up the game and become more noticeable.
03:17And I think they exploited that opportunity with Donald Trump and got talking to him.
03:25And I think they saw that there was nobody else who was ready to step into the arena.
03:30This is a role traditionally expected of India, but that was not forthcoming.
03:34And so Pakistan stepped in.
03:35And I think they had a great measure of success.
03:39And that is why they ran around all over the place trying to put it all together.
03:46But there are those who are saying there's an FT report to a Financial Times report which suggests there's a
03:51Texan lobbying firm
03:52that has been working very closely with both the Pakistanis and the Trump administration.
03:57They're the ones who built an equation between the Trump administration and the Pakistani leadership,
04:02especially Field Marshal Munir.
04:04There's talk of business deals between Donald Trump's close family and the Pakistani leadership.
04:12Do you believe there's more to it than meets the eye, the proximity that Pakistan seems to be showing
04:18towards the Trump administration in particular, or Trump's proximity to Field Marshal Munir?
04:25Well, you know, the Pakistanis did some interesting things to begin with.
04:29And as soon as Donald Trump came into office, they did launch a significant lobbying effort
04:35to try and get him on their side.
04:36Because if you recall, the last time he was in office, he wasn't particularly keen on Pakistan.
04:41And so they did use lobbying firms to up their profile, as it were, with Donald Trump.
04:49But then they did something that has yielded a lot of fruit.
04:53Trump was keen on counterterrorism.
04:55And so the Pakistanis caught and handed over a very key terrorist who was involved in the bombing
05:00of the Afghan airbase, American airbase, when the Americans are about to leave.
05:05And that really put, gave Donald Trump an opportunity to praise the Pakistanis.
05:10And he did so in front of Congress.
05:12And I don't think the Pakistanis look back after that.
05:14They thought they had an end with Trump.
05:16And then, of course, they signed these cryptocurrency deals and the mining deals, which, of course,
05:24Trump would have loved.
05:25So that is, I think, how they got close to him.
05:28And then I think, finally, they recognized something very important, that Trump is a transactional
05:34man.
05:34And that's what gets to his heart.
05:36And that's what works.
05:37And I think their praise of Trump as having ended the war between India and Pakistan probably
05:43did the trick.
05:44As you know, Trump was delighted with that.
05:46And I think that may have been one of the reasons why he didn't much care for what Mr.
05:50Modi was saying.
05:50He didn't do the same.
05:52And Trump, I think, has responded to all this.
05:56And a degree of trust and camaraderie has been established.
06:00It's not as though it's back to the good old days when U.S. and America were partners.
06:04That's not the case.
06:05But certainly, America is now listening to what Pakistan is saying.
06:09And Pakistan has a lot of beef in this state because, you know, we are 90 percent of our
06:17oil comes from the Gulf.
06:19And we're hugely dependent on it.
06:22And we have an alliance with Saudi Arabia.
06:26And we desperately need the oil.
06:29And we need it at a reasonably cheap price.
06:31As you know, we are already in Pakistan undergoing a lot of hardship because of lack of supplies.
06:38So, we have a vested interest in getting this thing sorted out as quickly as possible.
06:43And also in trying to effect this rapprochement to remain on the good sides of all the players
06:51in the Gulf.
06:53You know, because there is a belief that it's interesting the way you put it because while
06:58Pakistan is getting the visibility of being the seeming mediator, as it calls itself,
07:03between Iran and the United States, your economy is in bad shape.
07:08And the longer the war continues, the more difficult it's going to be for the Pakistani economy.
07:14So, Pakistan has a huge stake, also shares a large border, a long border with Iran.
07:19Clearly desperate also to get a deal going.
07:36I wouldn't call it desperation, but I would say that there's a great deal of interest.
07:41Don't forget, you know, we have a project which is in the doldrums right now, which is the
07:47gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan via Gwadar.
07:50And that's on hold because of the American sanctions.
07:54We are not allowed to go ahead with that project.
07:56The Iranians have been very angry with us in the past.
07:59So, I think if this thing is resolved, one of the things that we expect to get from all
08:04this, apart from, of course, the oil and the rest of it, is that the Americans might let
08:09up on that particular sanction.
08:11And if that happens, then Iran and Pakistan can trade grass and oil with each other directly
08:17via a pipeline.
08:18And I think that would be very, very important.
08:20So, I think good relations with Iran are as important to Pakistan now as good relations
08:25with America.
08:28Who's leading this?
08:30Is it General Efeel Marshall Munir or Shahbaz Sharif?
08:33Is it the military leadership that's still calling the shots?
08:36Field Marshal Munir was in Iran not too long ago speaking to their leadership.
08:41Is he the one in control, calling, taking all the major decisions?
08:44Or is it Shahbaz Sharif?
08:45No, I think you have a very finely tuned understanding between the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime
08:52Minister on the one side, the civilians, and the military establishment led by General
08:57Munir.
08:58I think they're absolutely 100% on the same page.
09:01Which is why, as you know, while Shahbaz Sharif was in Turkey and the Deputy Foreign Minister
09:08was in Saudi Arabia, the Army Chief was in Iran and so on and so forth.
09:13So, they are working together to get this thing done.
09:17And I think they're in constant touch with each other.
09:19And it's a joint platform.
09:24You're saying it's a joint platform.
09:25In conclusion, presumably Pakistan is hoping to get financial aid out of it, as you say,
09:31getting oil because a large part of its oil does come through the Strait of Hormuz.
09:36But do you believe that, given the fact that Donald Trump is transactional,
09:40Pakistan also will have to be careful as to what kind of role it precisely ends up playing in this?
09:47If this goes horribly wrong, where does it leave Pakistan?
09:50If the talks don't result in a breakthrough, what happens next?
09:54I don't think anything will happen.
09:57I think Pakistan has already established itself as a good interlocutor and as a good mediator.
10:04Its standing in all the world capitals has gone up.
10:06My understanding is, or in fact knowledge is, that all the top leaders of the world are in touch with
10:12Pakistan's leadership
10:13and urging them to get on and continue to play this role.
10:16And even if nothing comes of it, everybody will know that Pakistan, of all the players in the world,
10:22did its best to get this done.
10:24So I think whether it succeeds, whether there are talks or not, whether they succeed or not,
10:29I think Pakistan has arrived at a place where its importance is now being recognized as a player in the
10:35Middle East.
10:37You know, many will say it's a beneficiary of geographical location.
10:40But I must ask you this question from a New Delhi perspective.
10:43New Delhi's concern remains the same.
10:45Pakistan exporting cross-border terrorism into India, targeting India.
10:51Do you believe that that image of Pakistan as a country which has had to often be on the FATF
10:59watch list,
10:59has been on, has been accused of harboring terror, that doesn't go away, does it, with this?
11:07It's gone away because Pakistan has not been exporting terror.
11:10And it's number one, and the world knows this.
11:12And right now, the world is appreciative of Pakistan.
11:17It has, Mr. Satya.
11:18You and I, I don't want to dispute that, but you know better than most that the likes of Masood
11:23Azhar and others and Daud Ebrahim and Hafiz Saeed have had refuge in Pakistan.
11:28You know, Rajdeep, the thing is that you're talking of a long past.
11:33Those days are over.
11:34This particular government and this regime are focused on putting Pakistan back on the string.
11:42And so, Sandhur, you know what happened in Sandhur.
11:45You didn't get any sympathy from anywhere.
11:47Nobody believed your story.
11:49So, let's leave there.
11:50Let's leave it at that.
11:51Let's not get into India-Pakistan in this discussion.
12:22Okay, I'll leave India-Pakistan for another day.
12:24I thank you very much, Najib Sethi, for joining me here on the show tonight.
12:30Okay.
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