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An in-depth assessment of current geopolitical tensions indicates that indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran are taking place in Pakistan, with the Pakistani leadership acting as a mediator.
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00:00Let's talk about the objectives. Now, Donald Trump has been claiming everything has been
00:03decimated in Iran, we have almost won the war, but has it really? We looked at some of the
00:09objectives and goals that USA had put for that Trump is claiming. Initially, was a regime change
00:15that the top leadership has been eliminated for sure? However, the next leader, Iran's supreme
00:20leader, presently is also a Khamenei. He's Moshtaba Khamenei, comes from the same lineage,
00:24so technically the regime remains. Stopping Iran from acquiring the nukes,
00:29this for decades has been an American mission. That enriched uranium is not only still in Iran,
00:35Iran is refusing to surrender it to the International Atomic Agency. So at least the
00:41next objective then was to keep a cap on the missile range. That has not been achieved.
00:45More and more missiles are being fired toward the Israeli territory that they are able to at
00:50least fight off for now via Iran. Degrading the military infra. Now, remember that Donald Trump
00:56has said that militarily Iran is defeated. If that were to be true, those strikes wouldn't have
01:02happened. However, that also means partially they have been able to achieve at least this specific
01:07objective. There has been clearly a lot of damage that has happened to the bases there in Iran.
01:13Pranay, I bring you in here because the focus again comes on the ground, on the tensions between
01:19Israel vis-a-vis Lebanon and Iran. But do you believe that Israel realizes this is their window
01:25of opportunity and they want to continue to go ahead? Otherwise, if this opportunity is lost,
01:29then they wouldn't really be able to sustain what is happening right around them.
01:38Pooja, you know that for any decision-making process, there is a preposition whether risk
01:42outweighs the benefit or the benefit outweighs the risk. In this case, Israel will also go for that
01:46kind of evaluation and along with in conjunction with the United States. And since U.S. Vice President
01:50is there in Islamabad to hold these negotiations, I think, you know, and you know, you know, the history
01:56and the past of Israel and Hezbollah conflict, they may hold this operation for a while and they may
02:04leave it to fight another day because it's an ongoing conflict. We have seen in the past that
02:10multiple times there have been ceasefires and those ceasefires get violated by either side. So, you know,
02:16this is a ground situation. If the gain is bigger, in fact, if there is a pressure from the United
02:23States and as there are indications that President Donald Trump want a serious attempt for the
02:29ceasefire, then Israel may go for some kind of arrangement. But with the Lebanese government,
02:34and in fact, they would want to capitalize on the decision made by Lebanese government to ban
02:39Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, they would want to put pressure on Lebanese government or rather
02:44Lebanese army, which has so far been weak and not being able to eliminate Hezbollah or disarm Hezbollah.
02:50They'll try and find some other way to disarm Hezbollah and eliminate that threat. But, you know,
02:55in the larger scheme of things, I think United States is also giving it a serious thought as far
03:01as this process is concerned. And as Gaurav was rightly pointing it out that, you know,
03:05both sides have taken maximalist positions. But whether it is a 15-point agenda or 10-point
03:12suggested by Iran, I think these are more rhetorical statements. But the decision will be driven by
03:18reasons, not rhetorics. And I think those reasons will be that both sides are approaching this
03:23negotiation, be it Islamabad or any other engagement.
03:29As well, that our third countries have played their role.
03:34All right.
03:35All right. Pranay, stay on with us as much as possible. And I want to thank Gaurav Savant as much.
03:44You can
03:45always continue to watch him on our sister's channel, Aaj Tak, as well. And of course, on India today,
03:49because he's constantly tracking what's unfolding across the region and especially in Islamabad.
03:54Gaurav, thank you. I'm also now joined by the panelists, Niranjan Marjani, joining me,
03:58international relations and foreign policy expert, Prabhu Dayal, former diplomat also with us,
04:03and Colonel Rohit Dev as a defence expert. I want to first bring you, Ambassador Prabhu Dayal,
04:08at this juncture, you must have seen enough diplomatic discussions, tensions in various
04:12countries and how India has dealt with it. But I'm looking at how, one, this diplomacy mission
04:18really is for Pakistan. How do you see their role, whether it's as a mediator, facilitator,
04:24or just to transfer messages from one side to another?
04:28Well, you know, you rightly said, I have seen a lot of diplomatic negotiations in my lifetime.
04:34But, and this is a fundamental but, this is a very, very difficult negotiation.
04:41Why?
04:42Well, for one thing, the two sides are very far apart. Their positions are very difficult to bridge.
04:49Now, the two sides are not even sitting together in the same room. And as you pointed out, Pakistan
04:56will be carrying messages from one side to the other. Pakistan is not going to be mediating.
05:02Mediating is a much stronger word. It means giving inputs which would work towards finding a solution.
05:09But that, I'm afraid, is not going to be Pakistan's role. Pakistan will be conveying messages
05:15because the two sides may not even sit in the same room. However, even by conveying messages,
05:22Pakistan could play a useful role. Now, of course, the situation globally is so difficult
05:29that if even a slight amount of progress is made towards de-escalation, it will be a very good
05:36and a very positive step. So, on my part, I wish the Pakistanis success in this endeavour.
05:43But it's a very, very challenging task ahead for them.
05:47And especially to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbar Sharif, it's a huge opportunity. Let's see how he takes it up.
05:52Niranjan, what kind of a global order are we looking at here? There is a ceasefire, so to say.
05:56There are negotiations in Pakistan. Simultaneously, Israel continues to pound Lebanon,
06:01saying these are Hezbollah targets and they will not let them go.
06:05We are looking at a certain new global order, the manner in which there are groups
06:11and yet there are individual countries taking their decisions too.
06:14How do you look at this negotiation on one side and missile strikes at the Israel-Lebanon border?
06:22I think the negotiations, as Ambassador Prabhu Dayal mentioned,
06:26it is a very difficult moment for Pakistan because to bring two sides to certain agreement,
06:33I think that is, I don't think that is going to be possible and Pakistan is just going to be
06:39a messenger
06:39between US and Iran. That's for one. Because the kind of agenda both the sides have put forward
06:46for talks and the conditions they have laid down, I think it would be impossible to make any progress
06:52if both the sides approach the talks from their own perspective. That is what it is.
06:58Secondly, the question you asked about the missile strikes continuing in Lebanon, I think that is also,
07:06I think that is the bone of contention of these talks and these negotiations because Iran wanted a ceasefire
07:14to include Lebanon as well and Israel halting strikes against Hezbollah, but US and Israel have not agreed to this.
07:23Now, about the order you were talking about, I don't think we are seeing a very different order
07:29because if we consider, you know, the existing order or the Middle Eastern geopolitics,
07:36then we are seeing a sort of continuation because what this US and Iran, Israel's war against Iran has done,
07:44that it has all, it has kind of, you know, maintained the same order where there has been a competition
07:51between the Arab countries and Iran for supremacy of the Muslim world. And so we are seeing the same
07:57condition right now, same situation right now. And as far as Pakistan's role is concerned,
08:02I think that is also a continuation because Pakistan and Iran also do not enjoy very cordial relations.
08:08We have seen a lot of discord between these two countries in the past few years. And Pakistan is
08:14kind of, you know, US and Arab countries, they kind of use Pakistan as a counterbalance against Iran
08:20in West Asia or even in South Asia. So I think Pakistan's role has also remained the same. And even
08:27the, you know, the divide between Arab countries and Iran has, I think, widened, in fact, if not stayed the
08:36same. And if there was any possibility of truce between the two, I mean, that has gone because
08:42of the war that has been going on. You mean truce among the Gulf nations, you mean?
08:47Gulf nations and Iran. Yes, between Arab countries and Iran. So I think...
08:51And considering how Iran was bombarding the United Arab Emirates, Dubai, it reflected another tangent I
08:57think nobody saw coming at that point. Please stay on with me. Colonel Rohidev also now joins us.
09:02Let's talk about, because you understand it comes from that field, about the China support with
09:07weapons. Why our third country, as the American media is claiming, we're going by their claims
09:12right now. But we know that China, Russia have expressed their support earlier as well.
09:17At this juncture, do you think that is this about who has better weapons, better ammunition,
09:22who has better strategy, who has more confidence? What do you think is working here? Because Iran also
09:28primarily works with the martyrdom ideology to become the ruler of the Islamic world, a new ruler of the
09:33Islamic world. And while the USA thrives on a superpower ego that it has had for many years now. So
09:40how do you
09:40think which side has a better edge this time and why?
09:46Both have a good edge. That's why China is concerned. It's just recouping the arsenal of Iran through third
09:53Party, because directly if it does it, then it comes under some kind of a sanction and
09:58tariffs to be imposed. So countries like North Korea, which have zero trade with the United States,
10:04that is why you find the Chinese leadership was in North Korea very recently, the moment it was
10:09announced, just like we were there everywhere from UAE to Qatar to US to seek our interest in the game.
10:17Now, coming to the broad fashion, I want the viewers to understand this very categorically,
10:22is that Witkoff and Jared were part of the negotiation with Iran. When I perceive the US
10:30deliberately failed it because they wanted to go ahead with a mission, because the mission
10:34was led jointly by the Israeli administration and the US administration to hammer Iran in trying to
10:40inflict a regime change, which they were not capable of. And then finally, from the intent part,
10:45it came to destroying the capability of Iran for the future. So that is the current
10:48game. Why Vance has gone is very, very critical to note. Vance is the vice president of the United
10:55States. A similar level has not come from Iran. So logically, if the Iranian president was here,
11:01Vance going would have made that kind of a protocol sense. Vance is here because whatever now he says
11:07back in US, it deflects the lack of credence which Witkoff and Jared Kushner carried earlier.
11:15to give legitimacy to the decision which US is going to take in the future.
11:18Why did you say that, sir? Sorry for interjection, because if they have US vice president, Vance,
11:25they have also sent a parliament speaker. They've also sent their own senior minister,
11:29who's come, Argachi, is a foreign minister. Why do you think it's not the same?
11:34It's not the same. I'll tell you why it's not the same. Firstly, there is no president or vice president
11:38on the other side. That's just a protocol part.
11:39Or no supreme leader, technically.
11:42No, no. There's a president there in the making called Pedakshan, right? He could have been there,
11:48but he's not there. Reason Vance is to give credence to this effort, which I think is going
11:53to fail eventually. Because unless that happens and Vance does not go back to the American public
12:00and the media and is able to initiate the reasons for failure or draw on a mantle of success,
12:06whichever way it goes. So that is the broad, broad outlook which Vance carries as a vice president.
12:13The second part is, if he had not come, for example, and Jared and Witkoff had come,
12:19which also went to Oman for those dialogues, which eventually failed, there was no going back
12:26to the American public to justify a continuation of the war if the president currently wants.
12:31From justification of the war side, he's good.
12:33From the point of view that if he achieves minor success with Hormuz or delay, it's very good.
12:39But personally, I think it's not in American interest to end the war too soon, right?
12:44It may be sounding very bizarre for the world to understand this.
12:47But if you are in the shoes of Donald J. Trump, and if you are able to achieve, yes,
12:53you will get that mantle of stopping a war, which he will claim for a Nobel Prize kind of a
12:57bargain.
12:57But the problem is the internal issues will take center stage, and he has a long time to go to
13:03the
13:03midterms to be able to justify things. Because whatever he does, Iran will always put the tap
13:09tight in so far as the U.S. mission is concerned. Who has made the sort of concessions? The U
13:18.S.
13:18While Mr. Vance was in the aircraft trying to communicate, the Iranians made it clear,
13:23unless you unfreeze our assets, we are not coming in. And that means J.D. Vance is carrying a huge
13:29responsibility on his shoulder, especially with this mission. Sir, stay on with me, because I want
13:33to bring in Ambassador Dayal here. Ambassador Dayal, for those of us who have not been part of such
13:38negotiations, help us understand what are the factors that are looked at when there are these
13:43tense situations that you have to at least reach a middle ground. What is the role of the negotiators?
13:48What do they bring to the table? The mediators' role as much here, while it looks like more of a
13:54transferring messages. However, nevertheless, what is it that can make a breakthrough in such huge
14:00diplomatic discussions, which are not just between two nations? This is going to impact the rest of
14:04the world too. Well, you know, Pakistan's role is limited in nature. It has been able to get both
14:13parties to come to the table. But more than that, it is not going to be playing any substantive role.
14:22Moreover, one of the key parties to this conflict is Israel. And in this particular regard,
14:30Pakistan is not going to be an acceptable party to Israel for any sort of mediation, because firstly,
14:38Pakistan does not recognize Israel. Secondly, Pakistan has no diplomatic relations with Israel.
14:45So in this background, Israel would never have come to the talks. And without Israel,
14:51these talks are not going to have much meaning. Now, Colonel Rohit was very correct in saying that
14:57President Trump has displayed great seriousness by sending Vice President Vance.
15:03But I disagree with him slightly regarding the composition of the Iranian delegation. You know,
15:10I've served in Iran for three years. Indeed, I've served in the U.S. for four and a half years.
15:14I find that the Speaker of the Majlis ranks number two in their protocol list, just as in the United
15:25States system, it's the vice president who is number two. So both the countries have sent their
15:32number two ranking persons to the talks. So I think the Iranians are very serious.
15:39And I think, without doubt, Trump wants an end to this conflict because of the fact that his own
15:47image has plummeted. He faces severe consequences back home, vis-a-vis his own voter base.
15:57Of course, the MAGA supporters are still standing with him, but their numbers are eroding. So President
16:03Trump had underestimated the Iranian capacity to resist. And he has found that he was totally wrong in
16:11those calculations.
16:12That's what many are saying, that it looks like that America possibly did not see this through. But I would
16:17be
16:17surprised at that because American intelligence and the manner in which it's known, Iran, wouldn't it really
16:23understand that it can retaliate as much? But perhaps they also felt some sanctions would have restricted them.
16:29Also, adding to the point that Ambassador Dayal made about Pakistan not recognizing Israel, for those who may not know,
16:37even the passport of Pakistan says that it is allowed in all countries and not to Israel.
16:43Israel. That's how explicit it is. You wouldn't see this in other countries. And yet, that's why I wonder
16:49why Pakistan was the chosen venue and destination for these talks when Israel is clearly a stakeholder.
16:54Niranjan, I bring you in here. There are two big issues that USA is targeting for. So is Iran to
16:59defend itself.
17:00It's the nuclear enrichment, the uranium enrichment, the nuclear plants and plants. And then, of course,
17:05the Strait of Hormuz. Do you see Iran backing down on this at all? Because if USA goes back on
17:13this, it will reflect so poorly on a superpower like the United States of America. So I wonder if Iran
17:18will take
17:19a step back on it.
17:22I don't think Iran will take any step back on this because ultimately, these are the two core issues on
17:28which it would be
17:29negotiating and it would be actually hoping that it will gain some advantage over the United States.
17:36And as it is, like, we are talking about how United States may have underestimated Iran's capability.
17:44Maybe, you know, these talks or negotiations or the declaration of ceasefire, I mean, Iran will take it,
17:51you know, as, you know, as, like, it will be negotiating from a position of strength because then it would
18:00push forward its agenda for nuclear enrichment as well as, you know, to control the Strait of Hormuz.
18:07Now, as far as the United States is concerned, again, like Ambassador was mentioning or Colonel was
18:13mentioning, it's unlikely that U.S. will also agree and U.S. would also want this war to end without
18:20America gaining any advantage out of it because then Trump also has to answer to his domestic
18:26quarters with mid-term elections coming up in November. That is a big challenge for him. And
18:31right now, like, at least as far as, you know, the position of both the countries are concerned,
18:39then I think U.S.'s position is not looking very good because, you know, it has not been able to
18:45achieve all its objectives. And I think it has complicated the situation.
18:51I think, final point, keep saying that our objectives are achieved, military has been
18:55dismantled, decimated completely. We are almost there. We're almost there. We're winning the
18:59war, he says.
19:01No, I think Donald Trump has been making many such statements since the start of war. And
19:06he has also been giving a certain, you know, timeline to end the war or for the U.S. to
19:12achieve
19:12its objectives. But that also has not happened in these six weeks, as we have seen. And still,
19:18yes, Iran has suffered a lot of damage. Its political leadership has been wiped off. I do
19:26agree. But then its military capabilities have not been totally decimated and totally wiped off.
19:32Correct. And it continues to, at least, whether it's through proxy or by itself, has been able
19:37to keep the forces at bay. So, this is the latest coming in, that the Iranian delegation has reached
19:43Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's office. So, that first meeting is going to begin, possibly
19:47followed by the American delegation. And then there would be a next round of meeting. I want to
19:52thank our gentlemen here on the panel with their expertise. And they have been associated and
19:57served in different areas to be able to help us understand what happens in these situations.
20:01We'll continue to keep coming back to you. Appreciate you joining us.
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