- 14 hours ago
The US administration has deployed guided-missile destroyers and carrier strike groups to halt Iranian oil shipments, warning of military action against any approaching vessels.
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00:01Hello and welcome to an India First special broadcast. I'm Gaurav Savan.
00:05The next escalation in the war in West Asia, the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
00:14U.S. President Donald Trump, he's just taken to social media platform Truth Social to say
00:20that the Iranian Navy is lying at the bottom of the sea.
00:24It's been completely obliterated. 158 Iranian ships have been sunk and we have not hit their
00:33smaller number of what they call our fast attack ships because we did not consider them much of
00:40a threat. American President now issues a warning to Iran. He says, warning, if any of these ships
00:49come anywhere near our blockade, anywhere close to our blockade, they will immediately be
00:57eliminated. Full caps, eliminated. Using the same system to kill what we use against the drug dealers
01:06on boats at sea. It is quick and brutal. P.S. 98.2% of drugs coming into the U
01:15.S. by ocean or sea
01:17have stopped. Thank you for your attention to the matter. President DJT, Donald J. Trump, big, big threat
01:27threat to Iran by U.S. President Donald J. Trump. This is a threat to the Iranian Navy. He says
01:35158 of
01:36your ships, including mine laying ships, are now lying at the bottom of the sea. The same will happen to
01:45the small number of boats that they call the fast attack craft. On your television screens, the two
01:53images that you see, one of the Strait of Hormuz and how Iran dominates the northern side, the smaller
02:00islands, Oman's on the southern side, and President Trump saying no safe passage for ships paying that
02:07illegal toll. Iran knowingly failed to open Strait of Hormuz. So President Trump is very clear. It's 8 o'clock
02:16at 7.30 IST. That was the time. It's just exactly 27 minutes earlier that that blockade kicked in, which
02:25means you have U.S. Navy warships that are in the Gulf of Oman. They dominate the Gulf of Oman
02:33right now.
02:34They've in the past carried out, and at least two of them, USS Peterson and USS Murphy. They carried out
02:42a channel, they went down the Strait of Hormuz. America says they're carrying out demining operations
02:48also. They were challenged by the Iranian Navy. Now you have two different versions of the story.
02:54Iran says the moment they challenged the American ships, the American ships turned back. The American
03:00version is they were challenged, but they communicated to Iran that this is an open sea.
03:07It's freedom of navigation. They're carrying out a freedom of navigation exercise. They've crossed,
03:13they're crossing back. And since there is a ceasefire between America and Iran, Iran cannot target the
03:19American warships. So U.S. President Donald Trump's ticking deadline has ended at this global oil
03:27choke point. Any ship that visits an Iranian port either enters or exits will now be blockaded,
03:35will face consequences. Remember, President Trump had announced in a message on Truth Social that U.S.
03:40will begin blocking ships to Iran and from Iran in the Strait of Hormuz after 2 p.m. GMT,
03:47which was 7.30 IST. And that's just ended. This is one of the world's most critical energy points.
03:54And India today's panel of editors, they've been tracking developments and every aspect of it,
04:00the strategic aspect of it, the economic aspect of it, the security aspect of it, and what's
04:06happening on ground. We'll get you through open source intelligence. What is the assessment?
04:10Trump had threatened vessels. Any vessel that pays money, $2 million to Iran to illegally cross what is
04:16known as the Iranian toll, they will also be blockaded. U.S. CENTCOM, they clarified ships that
04:22are either heading to or coming from any of the other ports. They will not be checked. So,
04:28in the Strait of Hormuz, there are eight countries along the Persian Gulf, Persian Gulf and, of course,
04:35Gulf of Oman. There are about 30 ports in all, major ports. Iran has eight, Saudi Arabia has three to
04:42four, Iraq has two to three, UAE has six to eight. And we'll give you all those facts, figures,
04:49and numbers. This is how crucial this U.S. blockade is. The U.S. strategy is simple. Deny
04:55Iran any revenue, any more funds to fuel the war. Two of U.S. Navy's most powerful guided missile
05:02destroyers, these are Ali Burk-class destroyers, USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy. They've
05:09transited through the Strait of Hormuz once. The U.S. has declared that these will also be used to
05:14destroy mines. And on this broadcast, we'll explain to you how American ships, there are
05:19minesweepers that sweep away the mines and there are those acoustic sonars that are sent out to
05:25destroy the mines. We'll explain all of that to you over the course of the next half hour.
05:32Washington, D.C.'s blockade on Iran. What impact will this have? We'll get you much more on the story.
05:37But first, I want you to listen in to this communication between the Iranian Navy, the IRGC Navy
05:43in the Strait of Hormuz and a USS warship. Listen to the threat from Iran. The response of the Americans
05:51will get you more on that story. Listen in.
05:53One, this is Sephan Navy Station. You must alter course and go back to the Indian Ocean immediately.
06:00If you don't obey my order, you will be targeted. Out.
06:04This is Coalition Warship 121. Engage.
06:17Attention all one. This is Sephan Navy Station. You must alter course and go back to the Indian Ocean
06:24immediately. If you don't obey my order, you will be targeted. Out.
06:30This is Coalition Warship 121. Engage.
06:35The U.S. close to a high island floor.
06:42Attention all.
06:45The most authoritative voices who are tracking developments on this story very closely are
06:50joining me on this broadcast. I have senior journalist and author Sandeep Unnithan, India Today's
06:56Foreign Affairs editor Geeta Mohan, Ankit Kumar is senior editor Ossent, and Siddharth Zarabi is
07:01editor business today. You can't get better voices to talk about what's happening now.
07:06We'll tell you about the military aspect, the foreign policy aspect, the business aspect, and let's begin with how this
07:12blockade is
07:13taking effect. And Sandeep, you've been speaking to your sources. Give us details about how this blockade actually takes effect
07:20now.
07:20Well, Gaurav, the U.S. has a substantial presence in the North Arabian Sea. There's one carrier strike group that's
07:27already present over there.
07:28That's the USS Abraham Lincoln. It's got its destroyer screens, the Burke-class destroyers. It's got one amphibious ready group
07:35that's already there, the Iwo Jima amphibious ready group.
07:38A second ARG is due very soon, in the next couple of days. A second carrier strike group is due
07:45there. So that's two carrier strike groups, two amphibious ready groups in the region.
07:50That's more than 20 warships. It's more than 100 aircraft, helicopters. The might of the U.S. Navy is now
07:57deployed in the North Arabian Sea, and very easily it can blockade any ships going in or out of Iranian
08:04ports.
08:04Now, Iran is a brown water navy, Gaurav, to understand that. It has got fast attack craft, it's got mines,
08:11it's got missiles, but it doesn't extend beyond the Persian Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz.
08:17It is designed itself in such a way. The navy is designed only to operate in the shallows of the
08:22Persian Gulf. Now, beyond the Persian Gulf, which is when the North Arabian Sea is, where you need blue water
08:29combatants of the kind that the U.S. has,
08:31the U.S. is now playing to its strengths, Gaurav. The U.S. is a blue water navy.
08:35But the challenge, the U.S. may want to play to its strength, but the challenge is in those shallow
08:39waters. It's in that very narrow strait, and that is where the big threat is, Gita.
08:45And how is this likely to impact Iran? Because the aim is to choke funds' availability for Iran.
08:53Well, that's the conversation we were having earlier as well. How is America looking at choking Iran completely?
09:02Now, yes, the oil not coming out of the Strait of Hormuz is going to be a problem, but, Gaurav,
09:08Iran has been a country under sanctions for decades, and they've withstood all this.
09:14In fact, India stopped buying Iranian oil quite some time ago, and that was under American pressure and recognizing American
09:22sanctions.
09:23Many other countries did it. They have been under Chinese loan and for a very long time.
09:30So, it's not like China is not going to come to their rescue. I see sustenance through China and Russia,
09:36not in terms of military might, not in terms of military supplies, but in terms of basic necessities and sustenance,
09:45I don't think that they will be left to fend for themselves when it comes to basic supplies.
09:51On the other hand, if the Strait of Hormuz is shut and commercial vessels do not actually take the risk
09:57of traveling and going in and out,
09:59basic supplies for the Arab world certainly is going to be under a lot of stress.
10:03Supply for the Arab world and supply for the rest of the world, Siddharth, because the markets would be very
10:08nervous today.
10:09So, two, three things to understand what will be the consequences of a blockade of Hormuz.
10:16Number one for India. For India, Gaurav, we have had 15 supertankers, which are Indian flagged, which till around three
10:27hours back today, were still in the Strait of Hormuz.
10:31We do not have an update on whether they have managed to come out before the blockade.
10:36We also don't know. The U.S. CENTCOM has said it's a blockade of the entire oil if it's coming
10:45from an Iranian port.
10:47We don't know those details. So, that's consequence number one.
10:51Consequence number two is already playing out in the oil market, which is where after a drop due to the
10:57announcement of the ceasefire,
10:59prices have gone up at one point over the last three days.
11:03They rose 8.4 percent. Today, as we are speaking, prices are up 5, 5.5 percent.
11:09But if the blockade is stringent and if it lasts for an extended period of time, I am afraid the
11:18current phase of demand destruction will be very severe and that will have global consequences, not just for India.
11:26One quick thing.
11:26And for America also. I mean, oil prices, if they go up, it will impact America adversely too.
11:30Absolutely. But we also have to remember, while pump prices have gone up in America, in the long run, America
11:36has the lever of being self-sufficient in oil and gas to not be dependent like an economy like India.
11:43One quick data point that we need to understand.
11:46Before this war, the world was producing roughly around 100 million barrels of oil and consuming that.
11:53Okay. Today, that production is down to 85.
11:58That gap has to be filled by someone.
12:01But does anybody have the capacity?
12:04They may have the capacity, but prices are obviously going up.
12:10And as a result, we will have to see what is the end game for the United States.
12:16Is it a blockade to block any Farsi crude from coming into the world market?
12:23Because a blockade will mean that within 10 to 12 days, Iranian wells will have to stop producing.
12:30They don't have enough storage.
12:32Those wells will get permanently damaged if that oil doesn't come out.
12:38And as a consequence, the final point, Gaurav, is what is the end game that the United States has?
12:43Is it to blockade Hormuz or is it to take control of one of the most vital points of oil
12:51transit?
12:52That's such an important point because U.S. President Donald Trump, in the past, has indicated, when a question was
12:59put to him, that if he wants to take control of the state of Hormuz, what does he intend to
13:04do?
13:05And he said, run it with the new Ayatollah.
13:07And that would mean, Sandeep, that he wants to take control and make money out of it.
13:12So, if Iran wants to take $2 million out of the state of Hormuz, how much does he want to
13:17take out of it?
13:17$1 million per ship that crosses or share it with Oman and Iran?
13:22Because this would indicate that America, which talked of sea lanes of communication being free and rules-based order, is
13:29actually minting money out of a crisis.
13:33Crisis it created.
13:35Yeah.
13:35You know, but, Gaurav, I mean, to be fair, if the United States did that, it would have tremendous ripple
13:41effects throughout the rest of the world.
13:42Because there are six other choke points in the world.
13:45Yes.
13:45You know, countries like Singapore, for instance, where the Malacca Straits, which is equally crucial as the state of Hormuz,
13:51if countries like Singapore then start charging tolls.
13:55I mean, you can imagine, there's going to be a ripple effect throughout the rest of the world.
13:57It's going to have huge impact on the global economy.
14:01So, there is talk of Iran charging a toll on this, which many countries might not agree to.
14:09But the fact that the United States making money out of this, possibly, it could be a win for President
14:15Trump.
14:15But the long-term impact of that is going to be something that the world is going to have to,
14:19you know, really come to terms with.
14:22Because, Gita, that would be a disaster for rules-based order across the world.
14:25I mean, America, in the past, has always talked about ensuring sea lanes of communication are kept open.
14:30Rules of orders are followed.
14:32This would adversely impact global trade.
14:35It will change the way global oil, global trade, and maritime trade really operates.
14:44Because Straits, under UNCLOS, are supposed to be free.
14:48Yes.
14:48You cannot charge, no country that has, that is adjacent to a strait can charge a toll or close the
14:56strait.
14:57So, for the benefit of our viewers, UNCLOS, and I know many of you know this, it's United Nations Conventions
15:02on Laws of Sea.
15:03Go on, Gita.
15:03Laws of the Seas, yes.
15:05And under that, you cannot control a strait.
15:09So, he would not just change the operating dynamics for one strait.
15:15He'll be doing it for straits across the world.
15:18And they'll all become choke points.
15:20What about the Taiwan Strait?
15:22And the Taiwan Strait.
15:23I mean, China will, you cannot imagine what will happen if he does what he plans.
15:28The cascading impact.
15:30But then again, you know, the Houthis have come in Gaurav and they have said that Bab al-Mandab will
15:35be shut or will be under threat if any US allied ships move across the Bab al-Mandab.
15:43And you know that if you're talking about the Bab al-Mandab, you're also talking about the Suez Canal, as
15:48Sandeep has pointed out time and again.
15:50So, we're looking at a situation where America again will be under stress to come back to the talking table.
15:58I'm saying what happened in Islamabad might not have been conclusive, but talks are not over.
16:05The fact that a military option is still not being adopted means they really want to go back to the
16:10talking table.
16:11Where is the next round going to be held is something we'll have to wait and see.
16:14Till then, I'm looking at, like Siddharth just said, a massive economic crisis facing the world.
16:23Okay.
16:23Do you see a massive economic crisis hit us in the next…
16:27Not really for the rest of the world.
16:28Of course, for energy importing nations, yes.
16:31But there are two things that will definitely happen.
16:34If this embargo on Farsi Iranian crude is stringently applied and succeeds…
16:42Okay.
16:42You clearly have a scenario where Iran's economy will go under.
16:46By some estimates, $435 million per day totaled up to around $13 billion in losses for Iran.
16:56The Iranian economy can certainly not survive that.
17:00But it will survive 47 years of sanctions and exporting only to China or a few countries.
17:05But not an embargo of this kind.
17:07Okay.
17:07Not an embargo of this kind.
17:08The second aspect, permanent damage to Iranian oil-producing infrastructure.
17:15I mean, we can take half an hour to even discuss, but it's going to be permanent.
17:19Now, what are the consequences there for?
17:22If you look at many parts of the world, including the United States, Russia, Venezuela as one example,
17:31obviously, their oil will flow more and make up that 15% gap.
17:37Remember, that is the key gap that we have to address.
17:40And, Gaurav, really in terms of the impact on energy markets and beyond that,
17:47the more important thing is, will this lead to a fresh round of hostilities?
17:54That's a big point.
17:56That's the key point.
17:57Is this ceasefire now going to end within hours or a few days of the implementation of this blockade?
18:04Sandeep says that the Iranians still have capability to do some kind of guerrilla tactic-based retaliation.
18:11Yes.
18:12Not maybe in a conventional blue water term, navy terms.
18:15But even if that were to happen, can the U.S. militarily enforce this blockade?
18:21And will there be a fresh round?
18:23If there is a fresh round.
18:25Maybe they can enforce the blockade outside in the Strait of Oman.
18:29In the Gulf of Oman, they can enforce it.
18:31But will Iran permit other ships getting out and going in?
18:35Pamela Manga is lead market analyst at Vortexa.
18:39And she's a global shipping expert, joins us on this broadcast.
18:43Pamela, welcome.
18:44Your reading of the current situation, now that the U.S. blockade has kicked in,
18:49what would be the first order effect on Iran and on the region?
18:53Yeah, I think that this is obviously moving to a different level of escalation.
19:01Of course, the U.S. blockage of the Hormuz creates further uncertainty on any future movement through the Straits.
19:09And this opaque enforcement, of course, creates uncertainty for vessels.
19:14And it really raises really big questions of which vessels can be targeted.
19:19You know, one of the questions is, is those vessels who have paid the toll, you know, will they be
19:26seized?
19:27What happens exactly to these vessels?
19:30There's still a lot of questions.
19:32Also, the next question is, a lot of crude has been rerouted through Yambu, so the Red Sea.
19:38And Asia is now highly dependent on these flows because of the lack of flows coming out of the Middle
19:46East Gulf.
19:46So the next question is, with this flow of around, I think it's around one and a half, two million
19:54barrels per day,
19:55from a seaborne perspective coming out of Yambu, what does this mean in terms of the flow through the Babam
20:01and Deb?
20:01You know, the Houthis have claimed that they will attack vessels going through.
20:07Does this escalate to that next level or not?
20:11You know, this is bad news for Asia on a couple of fronts.
20:14Number one, China currently imports, you know, is the main importer, of course, of Iranian crude.
20:22So if that crude can no longer get to China, there goes that buffer.
20:27The Russia oil at sea has largely been drawn down.
20:31India, of course, has been granted a license to take that crude, and they certainly have taken advantage and have
20:37done that.
20:38But those barrels are largely drawn down.
20:40We've seen lower crude exports out of Russia, kind of in general because of the drone attacks there.
20:47So this is just getting worse for Asia.
20:52It indeed is.
20:53And as far as India is concerned, yes, on crude, we may be a little comfortable.
20:58But what about the export of LPG from countries like Qatar?
21:03You know, how will those countries be impacted?
21:06And what will be the global impact?
21:10Are the markets very nervous looking at what's happening now?
21:14Should this continue for long?
21:16Yes, I think the markets are nervous.
21:18And you can see that reflected in where the prices certainly went this morning.
21:22And there's probably room for them to go further.
21:26Now, around 83% is by our calculation of seaborne LPG imports to India originate from the Middle East Gulf.
21:34So that's huge.
21:36You know, the U.S. has been sending some replacement barrels.
21:39But in terms of arrival volumes, they've dropped to a third of what they normally are for the months of
21:46March.
21:47And it's looking the same for April.
21:49I think everything I've read suggests that there's plenty of stocks in India for LPG, especially for cooking.
21:57However, I can just see that if this is a prolonged scenario, what does that mean going forward for the
22:06future?
22:07Stay with me, Pamela, as I bring in our other experts and my colleagues into this discussion.
22:12And feel free to join in anytime.
22:14Geeta, there is a conversation that is likely to happen in the next 24 hours between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
22:22Lavrov and the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
22:26One, what's the agenda?
22:28What can we expect from that?
22:29Well, a few important statements that have come out of Kremlin are when Peskov spoke.
22:34He spoke about the fact that this conversation and negotiations are really important,
22:40that Russia is willing to play peacemaker,
22:44that there needs to be a way to find a solution which is not military in nature,
22:50that Strait of Hormuz being shut is going to really have a cascading impact,
22:55like, again, Sandeep is saying, on global economy.
22:59And these are things that Russia is saying.
23:03What is important over here to note is that the fact that Russia and China are close to Iran,
23:08they're stakeholders, especially China, because of the oil that goes in from Iran to China.
23:14And the Foreign Minister speaking is going to be significant because should the leadership take a decision on ensuring that
23:21Iran does not collapse,
23:23and strategically, Gaurav, Iran cannot collapse, cannot collapse for China and for Russia.
23:29For them, the stakes are really high.
23:32So, they might not want to be involved militarily, but should they ensure sustenance of Iran,
23:38then Iran will continue to at least hold its ground.
23:42Has America painted itself in a corner, Sandeep?
23:45Because the U.S. CENTCOM has made it very clear, the Central Command,
23:49no ship that has gone to or is coming out from an Iranian port,
23:54whether it's Bandar Abbas or Kharg or Ali Khomeini,
23:59can they exit the Gulf of Oman?
24:02What if a Chinese ship, a ship carrying oil bound for China,
24:07a Chinese flagged ship attempts to do that?
24:10China and America will be confronting each other.
24:12That is, of course, in the realm of possibility, Gaurav.
24:15The fact is that, you know, China gets 80, you know, Iran exports 80% of its oil to China,
24:20and a lot of those ships that are, you know, sailing out of Iranian ports right now
24:24are Ghost Fleet ships that are sailing with their cargoes to China.
24:28So this is actually a very, very realistic scenario.
24:32What if the United States stops a ship, a Chinese, you know, flagship,
24:36or a ship carrying cargo, especially of oil and gas, to China,
24:41and the U.S. interdicts that, doesn't allow it to pass?
24:45Beijing can then say that this is an attempt by the United States to curtail,
24:49a direct attempt by the U.S. to curtail Beijing's energy supplies.
24:53And we've seen warfare erupt in the past when countries have gone to war
24:58because their energy supplies were, you know, targeted.
25:01So this whole thing will then boil down to what this Iran story really is, Gaurav.
25:06The fact is that the United States has cracked down on two of China's
25:10three most important sources of cheap oil.
25:13The first one was Venezuela, the second one is Iran,
25:16and, of course, the third is Russian oil.
25:18And China is not going to take this lying down, Gaurav.
25:20But, you know, anything could happen after this.
25:23I have a quick question for Pamela, if I may.
25:26Pamela, if you've heard the conversation earlier that we played out,
25:29and you must have seen it yourself, given the fact that you tracked shipping,
25:32between the IRGC and the American military,
25:35where they said that they have a right to, under international law,
25:39to move within the Strait of Hormuz.
25:42And if that is allowed, and if the Strait under UNCLOS should not be controlled,
25:49what is the justification America can give to firstly blockade the entire area
25:54and then not allow Chinese ships then to move out?
25:58I think that's what everyone's trying to understand the details of currently,
26:03is what legal ramifications do they actually have to enforce,
26:08to carry out what they say that they're going to do.
26:11So I think that there's still a lot of uncertainty,
26:14a lot of questions about, first of all, the legality
26:18and the actual actions of what's going to happen next.
26:23Is the naval blockade illegal?
26:28From your fraternity, is it illegal?
26:31That I'm unsure of.
26:34I'm not a naval expert,
26:35so I cannot really comment on the legalities of that right now.
26:41Okay.
26:42But economy-wise, Siddharth,
26:45how, moving forward,
26:47are we going to see markets in tailspin?
26:50Because there is uncertainty.
26:52We don't know where we'll get LPG from.
26:55We in India, what are our options?
26:58What are we doing?
26:59And globally, what would this lead to, Siddharth?
27:01Well, you know, some bit of this story has already played out.
27:05There was an effective blockade that was by the Iranians.
27:08Then a trickle started.
27:09Now that trickle will stop.
27:10Whether the actor is an Iranian or a U.S. guy is a different matter.
27:15But in terms of the markets,
27:16I think volatility and uncertainty on account of rapid developments
27:22will be a factor to watch out for.
27:24The larger question for the markets is that out of the ceasefire,
27:29will a durable peace emerge?
27:32Or could anything else happen?
27:35That is where market sentiment moves.
27:37I just want to add some other element.
27:39Sure.
27:39Because this point came up about China's response.
27:42I'm just picking up some chatter
27:44where Chinese officials are being quoted as saying,
27:48and this is like literally minutes ago,
27:50that we have arrangements for oil supplies
27:53and we would expect no one to interfere with that.
27:56So there is a new dynamic now that is being added in,
28:02and I'm taking this from the point of view of market.
28:05So therefore, the fundamental issue is
28:08if Iranian crude gets completely stopped,
28:12will there be others who will supply?
28:14Of course.
28:15Will other Gulf nations supply?
28:17Yes.
28:18Can some of them, after the damage that has been done,
28:21for example, to one of the largest gas-producing facilities in Qatar?
28:25In Qatar?
28:26Yes.
28:26No, it's going to take a lot of time to repair.
28:28So remember, the Iranians may have endgame did
28:31by ensuring and striking the infrastructure when they could.
28:35So lots of new dynamics,
28:37and it's probably going to be hour by the hour.
28:39Okay.
28:40And how does the blockade take effect?
28:43You know, usually when a country blockades another
28:45and it's been done in the past, legal or illegal,
28:48they'll actually end up saying they're checking for piracy,
28:51they're checking for drugs.
28:53You know, there's any excuse that a navy can give
28:57to board a civilian ship, a merchant vessel on the high seas.
29:01It's done across the world almost at all times in the name of checking piracy, for example.
29:07So how does the United States intend to enforce this blockade on the Strait of Hormuz?
29:12It has perhaps the most powerful flotilla that's around here.
29:17Of course, three aircraft carrier strike groups in place.
29:20Every aircraft carrier strike group has about 100 fighter jets,
29:26attack helicopters, anti-submarine warfare helicopters,
29:29anti-surface helicopters, attack helicopters.
29:33Then they have surveillance aircraft, they have submarines,
29:37they have those Ali-Burg-class guided missile destroyers,
29:40they have nuclear-powered submarines,
29:42they have fleet replenishment ships,
29:44all of them come into force.
29:46And when you have such a large navy,
29:48no merchant vessel would dare to cross that
29:51in case they're told you dare not come into these waters.
29:54There are times they say we're carrying out an exercise.
29:56A Nortam will be issued.
29:57And then, Sandeep,
29:59clearly nobody would want to come into those waters.
30:02Control begins at choke points
30:04and then it just keeps expanding the arc of the control.
30:07Yes, yes, Gaurav, of course.
30:09And, you know, the question to ask here is that
30:11how does the US plan to enforce this blockade?
30:13What will it do with the ships that are trying to break the blockade?
30:17Will it, for instance, you know,
30:19of course, they will board these ships,
30:22they will seize them.
30:23Where do they transport these ships?
30:25Is there another port that they will take them,
30:27they will, you know, impound them in some kind of port nearby?
30:30These are very, very big questions that need to be asked.
30:33And you're looking at, you know,
30:34a possibility of 20, 30, 40 ships that could keep climbing up.
30:38And the US will have to, you know, game this whole thing.
30:41Where are they going to park all these ships?
30:44Where are they going to, you know, anchor these things?
30:46What are they going to do with a cruise?
30:47How are they going to treat them?
30:48And this kind of thing has not been done in a long time, Gaurav.
30:51It happened in the 80s during the Gulf War of,
30:54the tanker war phase when the US was actually escorting ships
30:58through the Persian Gulf.
30:59They had, you know, created convoys of ships
31:01to protect them from Iran and from Iraq,
31:04which were, you know, indiscriminately targeting,
31:07you know, tankers.
31:08But this is a very different order of things
31:10where the world's largest navy has come across,
31:13you know, has deployed itself
31:15near the world's most important energy lifeline
31:18and is now threatening to collapse.
31:18Stay with me, Sandeep.
31:19I have breaking news that's coming in from Pakistan.
31:22After the collapse of the Islamabad talks,
31:26Pakistan is still trying to play the role of a peacemaker.
31:30Pakistan still pushing for diplomacy between US and Iran.
31:34Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shabash Sharif,
31:37has issued a statement saying,
31:39working to diffuse the crisis between US and Iran,
31:42efforts have been made to ease the US-Iran conflict.
31:47Efforts were made even in the past.
31:50And the fact that Pakistan managed to get both Iran
31:55and Washington DC in the same room, Gita,
31:58first time in close to five decades,
32:00was a big thing.
32:03But what emerged from these talks
32:05that can be seen as, you know, an achievement,
32:09apart from getting everyone in the same room to talk,
32:11sharing of ideas, but anything beyond that?
32:14Well, the fact that they at least got to see
32:17what exactly their position is,
32:19very hardened positions when it comes to nuclear,
32:22when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz.
32:24The status of the Strait has changed completely and forever, Gaurav.
32:28Whether we like it or not,
32:29who controls it in the future is another thing.
32:32But for now, Islamabad is still pushing for talks.
32:35We do not know whether Islamabad is going to be the venue again.
32:38Egypt could likely be the venue for the next round of...
32:45...Moscow, which is Russia,
32:46trying to say that they'd want to be there to negotiate.
32:49But when it comes to Pakistan,
32:52a trilateral was held.
32:54Positions over there,
32:55they got a sense of what each side is coming with and coming from.
32:59And that's where it ends.
33:02It was inclusive.
33:03Okay.
33:04I want to thank all my guests for being a part of this conversation.
33:07And we'll be tracking the story very, very closely
33:10because the situation does remain on the edge here.
33:20The world is on edge with the U.S. blockading the Strait of Hormuz
33:24for ships going to and coming from Iranian ports
33:28and Iran insisting it continues to dominate the Strait of Hormuz.
33:32So what will this lead to and what next for the world?
33:36Joining me on India first is Professor John Limbert.
33:40Professor Limbert is former U.S. ambassador to Iran.
33:44Ambassador Limbert, incidentally,
33:46spent 444 days as a hostage
33:50during the Tehran crisis in 1979.
33:53He's had about 34 years of diplomatic career and experience
33:58focused almost entirely on West Asia and Islamic Africa.
34:02He's handled Iranian affairs
34:04as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State.
34:07Incidentally, he began teaching in Iran in 1964
34:10later joined the U.S. Embassy in Tehran
34:12and has written extensively on West Asia.
34:16Ambassador, such a privilege to have you on India first.
34:20Thank you for joining me, sir.
34:23Thank you, Gaurav.
34:23My pleasure.
34:25Ambassador, is it finally the end of the road
34:28for the regime after nearly 40 days of bombing
34:31and now the U.S. blockade?
34:34What is your understanding of the current situation
34:38between the United States and Iran?
34:41Well, the situation is not good.
34:46There are many of us,
34:48Iranian, American, European,
34:51others,
34:52who have worked very hard for decades
34:56to avoid just such a situation.
34:59But in a way, Gaurav,
35:01it's almost the inevitable outcome
35:05of a process that perhaps started back in 1979,
35:11the seizure of the embassy
35:12and holding of its staff,
35:14which you referred to.
35:16And since that time,
35:19U.S. and Iran,
35:21we and the Iranians,
35:23have not been able to talk to each other
35:26except to exchange threats,
35:31accusations and insults.
35:33So in a way,
35:34you could say this was a disaster
35:36waiting to happen.
35:39And the current situation
35:41remains a disaster
35:43even after Islamabad talks.
35:45Is there any forward movement
35:47or is the regime weakened in Iran today
35:51or remains strong?
35:52You understand the regime.
35:54You understand the people of Iran.
35:55What is the current situation
35:57inside Iran in your appreciation, sir?
36:01Well, that's a good question.
36:03I think the fact is that
36:07many observers,
36:08including Iranians,
36:10have underestimated the resilience
36:12of this regime.
36:14I mean, 47 years,
36:16it's been 47 years now
36:17since this system took power
36:22and it's still here.
36:24And it survived assassinations.
36:26It survived attacks.
36:29It survived isolation.
36:30It survived sanctions.
36:32It survived colossal mismanagement of its own.
36:35I mean, look at the economy,
36:37look at the situation of the people,
36:39and now it seems to be a regime
36:42despised by about 85% of its own people.
36:46But it's still there.
36:47So it has survived.
36:51And it does have good survival instincts.
36:56So thinking that assassinating
36:59one leader, 10 leaders,
37:03100 leaders is going to bring it down
37:06or sending in a few bombs and missiles,
37:09it's going to bring it down
37:10and bring the Iranian people something better,
37:13the long-suffering Iranian people,
37:15something better,
37:16I'm afraid, was an illusion.
37:19So that was an illusion.
37:20So if 47 years of sanctions,
37:2340 days of bombing now,
37:2512 days in 2025,
37:27if that didn't,
37:28and of course,
37:29you know,
37:29decapitation and assassinations
37:31of not just Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
37:33but almost 50 to 60 members
37:36of the top political leadership,
37:38military leadership,
37:39did not bring the regime,
37:41did not bring about a regime change,
37:43do you think an American blockade
37:45will do so?
37:46Or will that also be ineffective?
37:49I don't think so.
37:51I mean,
37:51it will impoverish the country more.
37:55But it's the people in power
37:58who basically the same group of power,
38:02same group of people
38:03who've been in power since 1979
38:05and their acolytes
38:09have made it very clear
38:10they don't care.
38:13Their message is,
38:15look,
38:16you can turn this country
38:17into a pile of rubble
38:20in which the people are impoverished,
38:24but we're still going to rule over it.
38:28And that's what's important to us.
38:30So go ahead,
38:31drop the bombs,
38:33impose your blockade,
38:34do what you like,
38:35but we're still going to be here.
38:38Ambassador,
38:39permit me to take you down memory lane.
38:41You saw Operation Eagle Claw.
38:44You saw what happened
38:46and you were a hostage
38:47for 444 days
38:49in the U.S. Embassy in Tehran
38:51when the revolution,
38:53you know,
38:54as the Iranians call it,
38:55when that revolution took place.
38:57And very recently,
38:58I'm sure you saw
38:59the manner in which
39:00the two pilots were rescued in 2026.
39:03Has the U.S. Air Force
39:05learnt its lessons
39:06from the botched operation then?
39:08What can you tell us
39:10what happened then
39:12compared to what's happening now?
39:15Well,
39:16the operation is very different.
39:18Of course,
39:18it was very gratified
39:19to see that
39:21these pilots were rescued,
39:24the people from the F-15
39:28were safely brought out of the country.
39:32But the Eagle Claw
39:34was very different.
39:36That was a very complex,
39:37very difficult operation.
39:39And I know
39:40some of the brave people
39:43who were on that mission,
39:45I've talked to them since,
39:47and what they've told me is
39:49they knew
39:51it wasn't going to work.
39:53They said
39:54this was a suicide mission.
39:56But
39:57in the military,
40:00in this system,
40:01when you're told
40:02to take on a mission,
40:05you do it.
40:07And with
40:07and my,
40:08you know,
40:09I salute them
40:10and I respect them
40:11and I honor them.
40:13You know,
40:14there were all kinds of reasons
40:15for its failure.
40:17But basically,
40:19it was just,
40:19as the saying goes,
40:20a bridge too far.
40:23That indeed was a bridge too far.
40:25But for the benefit
40:26of this generation,
40:28would you recount for us
40:30what you were going through
40:32that time?
40:33What,
40:33you know,
40:34what did you hear
40:34of that operation
40:35to rescue
40:36all of you trapped
40:37in the embassy?
40:38And why was it
40:39a bridge too far
40:40or an operation,
40:41a disaster
40:42waiting to happen
40:42and planes colliding,
40:44HEPTAs colliding, sir?
40:46It was extremely complicated.
40:49I mean,
40:50even if those planes,
40:52the helicopter
40:54and the helicopter
40:55and the C-130
40:59had not collided,
41:02the mission
41:02had already been aborted
41:05because the helicopters
41:07were operating
41:08far beyond
41:10their limit,
41:11their capacity
41:12and their limits.
41:15So they said
41:17they needed
41:17at least six helicopters.
41:19They had eight
41:20to start,
41:21but they had only,
41:22by the time
41:23they were ready
41:23to go on the last phase
41:25of the mission,
41:26they had only five.
41:27They had only five.
41:29And at the recommendation
41:30of the people
41:31on the ground,
41:32President Carter
41:33agreed to abort.
41:35So they were ready
41:37to leave
41:37when this tragedy happened.
41:41But again,
41:42it was too complex.
41:44They ended up landing
41:46at a place
41:47for their refueling stop
41:49at a place
41:51that was next
41:52to a fairly well-traveled road.
41:55I don't know
41:56why they did that,
41:58but that's what they did.
41:59That's what they did.
42:00So, no,
42:01and when that happened,
42:02I mean,
42:03when that happened,
42:04we were not told about it,
42:06but we were taken
42:07out of the embassy
42:08and scattered
42:10around the country.
42:11I spent four months
42:15in Esfahan
42:16before going back
42:17to Tehran.
42:19But as I said,
42:20that was a very complex,
42:22very difficult,
42:23very difficult mission.
42:25And if you look
42:26at where Tehran is,
42:27just getting the people there
42:30doing what happened.
42:35I'm getting goosebumps
42:36just listening to you.
42:37I mean,
42:38I've read about that operation,
42:39but to hear it firsthand
42:41from you, Ambassador,
42:43it's actually,
42:44you know,
42:45very horrifying
42:45what you must have lived through.
42:47You've spent a long time in Iran.
42:49You've seen the country.
42:51You know the regime.
42:52And you've seen the regime
42:53through its highs and lows.
42:56Iran, they say,
42:56will stand to lose
42:57millions of dollars
42:58if the U.S. blockade
43:00actually comes into effect
43:01in the right earnest.
43:03In your view,
43:04will that pressure
43:05the government,
43:06will that pressure
43:07the regime
43:07to negotiate with America
43:09to come to some kind
43:10of a settlement?
43:10Or will they dig in
43:12their heels further
43:13and continue this fight?
43:16Well,
43:17someone once said
43:18that, you know,
43:19that our Iranian friends
43:21don't never give in
43:22to pressure,
43:23that they only give in
43:25to a lot of pressure.
43:26But the question,
43:28the problem there is
43:29how much is a lot of pressure?
43:32And in this case,
43:34I can only say
43:36I don't know
43:37whether it,
43:38because what apparently,
43:40what apparently happened
43:42in Islamabad
43:44was that it was
43:46from the American side
43:47at least,
43:48and I don't know
43:48from the Iranian side,
43:49it did not look to me
43:52like a negotiation.
43:54It looked to me
43:54like a
43:57one-sided
43:59demand
43:59on the Iranians
44:01to give in.
44:02I mean,
44:02it seemed very revealing
44:04that Vice President Vance
44:05said,
44:06well,
44:06the negotiations failed
44:08because they didn't agree
44:09to our terms.
44:11That's not,
44:12in my view,
44:13that's not a negotiation.
44:16That's an attempt
44:18to bully the other side
44:20into accepting
44:22unconditionally
44:23everything
44:24that you want.
44:25A negotiation,
44:26a negotiation
44:27is different.
44:29True.
44:30Negotiation
44:31is give and take.
44:32your reading is
44:33America tried
44:34to bully Iran
44:35and
44:37your reading
44:38of the Iranian people,
44:39are they likely
44:40to get bullied
44:41in the manner
44:42in which they're being
44:43bullied,
44:44if at all,
44:44and considering
44:46they perceive
44:46that they have
44:47the upper hand
44:48despite 47 years
44:49of sanctions
44:50and 40 days
44:50of bombing
44:51this year,
44:5212 days last year,
44:53they still control
44:54the Strait of Hormuz.
44:55Islamabad talks failed.
44:57Iran says
44:58U.S. was rigid.
44:59U.S. blames Iran.
45:01Iran, be that
45:02as it may,
45:02what is the way
45:03forward?
45:06The way forward
45:09is,
45:10at this point,
45:11frankly,
45:12frankly difficult.
45:14Both sides
45:15have to take
45:16a deep breath,
45:17step back,
45:18and do some
45:19realistic assessment
45:21of where they are.
45:25For example,
45:27and also,
45:27very important
45:28that they stop
45:30believing
45:31their own rhetoric.
45:33I mean,
45:34both sides
45:34are producing rhetoric
45:37about victory,
45:38saying,
45:39we won,
45:40we won,
45:41we have the advantage.
45:43Well,
45:44believing that
45:44is very dangerous.
45:48You have to step back
45:49and say,
45:50all right,
45:50what can we achieve?
45:52Because in negotiations,
45:55you know,
45:55if you want to negotiate
45:58everything at once,
46:00you're going to agree
46:01on nothing.
46:03So you look for
46:04what is possible,
46:06what are possible areas,
46:08and how do we do it?
46:09How do,
46:10can we isolate,
46:12for example,
46:13the nuclear,
46:13this nuclear issue?
46:15can we somehow
46:17get back
46:18to
46:19the original
46:21JCPOA
46:22in a different version,
46:24and in a version
46:25that President Trump
46:26can claim
46:27that was a better deal
46:29than
46:30President Obama got?
46:32Because as we all know,
46:35President Trump's problem
46:37with the original
46:38JCPOA
46:39was not
46:39the agreement
46:42and the details
46:43of the agreement,
46:45it was the fact
46:46that it was negotiated
46:48by his predecessor,
46:50by President Obama,
46:51with whom he was obsessed.
46:53So he could,
46:55he could essentially
46:56set up a group,
46:57set up a group,
46:59perhaps lower level
47:00than this,
47:01than what met
47:02Islamabad,
47:04to work on
47:05a new agreement
47:07that then he can
47:09call,
47:10if you like,
47:11the Trump agreement,
47:12which would be
47:13essentially the same,
47:14the same thing,
47:16but would
47:19prevent
47:19or stop
47:22Iran's path
47:23to a possible,
47:25to developing
47:26a nuclear,
47:26a nuclear weapon
47:27in terms,
47:28in return for some
47:30kind of sanctions relief,
47:31which is extremely,
47:32apparently,
47:32extremely important
47:33for Iran.
47:36We will get you
47:37that full interview
47:38with Professor Limbert,
47:39with Ambassador Limbert
47:41online on
47:41indiatoday.in.
47:44Incidentally,
47:45he was a prisoner
47:46at the US embassy
47:47for 444 days
47:50in 1979,
47:51had escaped
47:52to Ishfahan
47:53and then ultimately
47:54brought back.
47:55We will get you
47:56much more
47:56on that story.
47:57So he says,
47:58the United States
47:59should negotiate
48:00with Iran
48:01and not bully Iran.
48:03We will track that story.
48:04Her voice
48:05mesmerized
48:06not one,
48:07not two,
48:08but generations
48:09over 80 long years,
48:11not just in India,
48:12but across the world.
48:14And just how
48:15versatile was she?
48:17The number of songs
48:18that she sang,
48:19more than 12,000.
48:20The different kinds
48:22from a bhajan
48:23to pop,
48:24to rock,
48:24to rap.
48:25There was nothing
48:26that Asha Thay
48:26couldn't do
48:28or didn't do.
48:29That voice
48:30has sadly
48:31fallen silent.
48:33Asha Bhosle
48:34is no more.
48:35With her,
48:35an era of timeless
48:37melodies
48:38comes to an end.
48:40But music,
48:40of course,
48:41can never come
48:41to an end.
48:42She will live
48:43forever,
48:44not just in our hearts,
48:46but through her music
48:47across the world.
48:49We pay our tribute
48:51and our respects
48:51to Asha Thay.
48:55The city
48:56that once
48:57danced to her voice
48:59now stood still.
49:03Wrapped in grief
49:04yet echoing
49:05with melodies
49:06that will never fade.
49:09As Mumbai
49:11gathered to bid farewell
49:12to Asha Bhosle,
49:13it wasn't just a goodbye.
49:15It was the closing note
49:17of a golden era.
49:39Asha Thay's last rites
49:41took place
49:41at Shivaji Park,
49:43which was carried out
49:44with full state honours
49:46in the presence
49:47of close family
49:48and leading personalities
49:49from the film industry.
50:17Siddharvi,
50:18In a day, I am so honored,
50:23What is it here, and who will come here?
50:27The Raja will be going,
50:30The Shoghi will be going,
50:33The Guru will be going,
50:35The Shoghi will be going,
50:36The Shoghi will be the one day.
50:38In the heart of my heart,
50:44In the heart of my heart,
50:47In the heart of my heart,
50:50In the heart of my heart,
50:57In the heart of my heart,
51:04In the heart of my heart.
51:28Earlier, a prayer meet was held at her residence,
51:32Where fans and dignitaries gathered for the Antim Darshan.
51:39Moreover, several prominent figures from the film and music fraternity
51:43Were present to pay their respects.
51:47In fact, Sachin Tendulkar and Tabu were seen getting emotional
51:51While paying her last respects.
51:54Tabu also met Zanai Bhosli,
51:56Granddaughter of Asha Bhosli,
51:58And offered her comfort during the difficult time.
52:11In addition, proper crowd control measures were put in place
52:15By the authorities so that the public could pay their last respects
52:19Without inconvenience.
52:22Thus, the farewell reflected not only the stature of the legend,
52:26But also the immense love she commanded across generations.
52:31Even in her final journey,
52:34The city ensured that every admirer had a chance to say goodbye.
52:38In the end, while the voice may have fallen silent,
52:43Its echo will continue to live on.
52:49Timeless, eternal, and forever cherished.
52:54The end, while the existence of the world is the second place
52:57And even the true nature of the world.
52:57And the rest of the world.
52:57The darkness is the highest corner.
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