- 6 weeks ago
The military manoeuvre aims to restrict maritime movement and cut off revenue streams, threatening global energy supplies and vital oil shipments to Asian markets, including India.
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00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today. This is your prime time destination.
00:04As always, news, newsmakers, talking points Monday night, start of a new week.
00:08Let's tell you what we have on the show tonight. The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has
00:13begun.
00:15What is Donald Trump's real game plan? Top military strategist, Colonel Douglas McGregor,
00:21will join us once again in an exclusive. That and plenty more, as always, on India's prime time show.
00:28But first, let's turn to the nine headlines at nine to nine.
00:34Donald Trump's Hormuz blockade kicks in. Trump warns will hit every Iranian ship that comes close,
00:41says Iran's navy is at the bottom of the sea.
00:47Despite the failed Islamabad peace talks, Pakistan pushes for diplomacy in U.S.-Iran tensions.
00:53Pakistan claims it's working to diffuse the crisis.
01:00Trump versus Pope over the West Asia war. Pope vats for dialogue and diplomacy.
01:06Trump says he isn't a big fan of the Pope.
01:12Ahead of the special session of Parliament, later this week, Prime Minister Modi makes a big Nari Shakti pitch,
01:18says efforts are aimed at empowering women.
01:21Opposition, though, dismisses the Modi claim, says the real goal is delimitation and an assault on the Constitution without consultation.
01:51The Supreme Court flags concerns over the manner in which the SIR is being conducted in poll-bound West Bengal,
01:58asserts that voters have a continuing right to be on the electoral rolls.
02:03However, it still backs off from interfering at this stage.
02:10Neetish Kumar expected to resign from the Bihar Chief Minister's post tomorrow afternoon,
02:15swearing-in ceremony for the next Bihar CM, scheduled in the Lok Bhavan.
02:19On April 15th at 11 a.m., Samrat Chaudhary remains a frontrunner.
02:26Noida workers' unrest turns violent, arson, vandalism on the streets of Noida.
02:32Angry workers hit the streets, seeking rise in wage, crowdstorms offices, vandalizes property.
02:40Delhi excise poll.
02:42Former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal maintains the Delhi High Court judge must recuse herself,
02:48alleges political bias, and claims only cases against the opposition are past track in the High Court.
02:57And it's the end of an era, but the legacy remains.
03:00Asha Bhosle passes away at 92 last rites, held with full state honours at the Shivaji Park Crematorium.
03:24The big story that we are breaking at this moment,
03:27Donald Trump has now gone ahead and activated his threatened naval blockade
03:33of the Strait of Hormuz of all ships of Iran and other countries that come into or go out of
03:41the Strait.
03:41The United States says, we will hit every Iranian ship that comes close.
03:46Trump says, Iran's navy is at the bottom of the sea.
03:49Trump claiming the U.S. has obliterated 158 Iranian ships.
03:54Trump warning, come close, get hit.
03:57We'll hit every Iranian ship that comes close.
04:00Fast attack ships now on target.
04:02We will blow up these ships is what Donald Trump is threatening.
04:06Joining me now on that big story, our Diplomatic Affairs Senator Geeta Mohan is joining me.
04:12Pranay Upadhyay, who's on the Iran-Israel-Lebanon border is also with us.
04:18I want to come to you, Geeta, first.
04:20It seems almost that we are back to square one in terms of the upping of the rhetoric.
04:24What are you picking up?
04:26Are we now heading for a potential conflict after all the talk about two weeks ceasefire?
04:32Well, I don't think it's a conflict right now, but yes, the situation is tense.
04:37We'll have to wait and see how the blockade is going to hold Rajdeep.
04:42On the one hand, we're looking at America holding a naval blockade.
04:47Iran's saying it's going to respond.
04:48There has been no military action per se.
04:51But meanwhile, we also have the Russian and the Chinese foreign ministers who are going to meet in Beijing.
04:57And Russia has already said that shutting the Strait of Hormuz and a naval blockade does not work,
05:04especially for the global economy.
05:06Chinese ships will try leaving.
05:09Will America then confront China directly?
05:11Because if they harm any of the Chinese vessels leaving,
05:15then it would be a direct confrontation between China and America.
05:20So we'll have to wait and see how this pans out for now.
05:22I don't think anybody has the appetite and the stomach for military action.
05:26But should it come to such a pass, I don't think either side will move back.
05:36Well, at the moment, the war of words, as you say, has escalated.
05:39I'm joined by Pranay Upadhyay.
05:40Pranay, you're on the Israel-Lebanon border.
05:42And that is a conflict that remains unresolved.
05:44And there are now reports that Israel may well return into conflict mode in some form or the other.
05:50What are you picking up?
05:53The clear indications are here, Razeev, that Israeli Defense Forces are not backing down
05:58or going for any restraint or restriction in their operations in southern Lebanese territory against Hezbollah.
06:04On the other side, IDF, Israeli Defense Forces have initiated a two-day military exercise.
06:10It's a big exercise in Carmel area of the northern Israel,
06:14clearly indicating that they want to show their preparedness,
06:17that the ceasefire, which was already on a very fragile ground, is only hanging on the cliff.
06:24And you can very well see that this conflict has now entered the naval domain, the maritime domain,
06:29where the naval blockade initiated by U.S. military, U.S. Navy,
06:33is going to only escalate a situation or further complicate a situation.
06:37But amid all these things, the larger worry remains, Razeev, here, about the opening up of the state of Hormuz.
06:43Be it the blockade, you know, implemented or done by the U.S. Navy,
06:46or the Iranian Navy implementing a naval blockade or making it selectively permeable.
06:51The real issue remains that for over 45 days, the state of Hormuz has largely disrupted.
06:57Those international waters are largely inaccessible for all the ships.
07:00And in fact, the global energy supplies remain disrupted.
07:03And in the present situation, we see a more further complicated situation
07:08where, you know, we can see this disruption getting extended even for a further period of time.
07:18Right.
07:19Pranay Upadhyay, putting some context to what's been happening, I appreciate you joining me.
07:24Now, remember, the Strait of Hormuz is a waterway strategically located near Iran,
07:30which is a gateway for oil supplies to several parts of the world, including to us here in India
07:35and indeed to China and Japan.
07:38But it is now at the heart of a high-stakes economic and military standoff
07:43with United States and Donald Trump threatening to choke Iran's oil lifeline.
07:49Iran is saying they will see this as an act of aggression and promise to hit back.
07:54How will all of this play out?
07:56India Today looks at it.
07:58Take a look.
08:05First, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz.
08:08Now the United States has joined too, as Donald Trump unleashes one more weapon at his disposal
08:14in a bid to corner Tehran.
08:17Trump, in a message on Truth Social on Sunday, announced no ships will be allowed through the strait.
08:24He also threatened to stop vessels that pay toll to Iran.
08:30The President also declared the US will be destroying mines laid by Iran.
08:36Later, the United States Central Command clarified,
08:39ships that are headed to or coming from Iranian ports will be blocked.
08:45The US strategy is simple.
08:47Deny Iran any revenue to fund the war.
08:51Ninety percent of Iran's oil exports go to China.
08:55And there are reports that Beijing is helping Tehran.
08:59Trump on Sunday did not take kindly to question on alleged Chinese help to Iran.
09:06China is preparing the ship, whether it's Iran.
09:09Well, if China does that, China is going to have big problems, OK?
09:13The Strait of Hormuz is turning out to be Iran's biggest leverage and America's biggest headache.
09:21Over 20 percent of global energy passes through the strait and is currently unavailable.
09:27Even as the two-week ceasefire remains in place, the US focus is on opening up the Hormuz Strait.
09:35We've defeated all of their water boats, too.
09:37Their navy has gone 158 ships.
09:40They have 28 water droppers, mine droppers, they call them.
09:44All of them are sunk.
09:46They probably have a couple of mines in the water.
09:48We have mine sweepers out there who are sweeping the strait.
09:52And now all we do is we'll open up the strait, even though we don't use it,
09:56because we have a lot of other countries in the world that do use it.
10:01Iran, meanwhile, says a breakthrough was never expected in just one round of talks,
10:07after more than a month of war.
10:14It was natural from the beginning.
10:16One couldn't have reached an agreement in a single session.
10:20I don't think anyone can have such expectations.
10:23Despite that fact, this was the longest session in the past year.
10:32After Trump's announcement of Hormuz blockade, crude prices have crossed 100 mark again.
10:38Incidentally, the US sanctioned waiver for Iranian oil at sea, which expires on April 19th, remains.
10:46And it is not clear how the latest US strategy to starve Iran of funds by blocking its exports will
10:54play out.
10:55Bureau Report, India Today.
11:00Well, let me go across straight to my first guest, someone who's always made news headlines when he's come here
11:05on the news today.
11:06Colonel Douglas McGregor, US Army colonel, former senior advisor to the Secretary of Defense under President Trump.
11:13Good to have you, colonel.
11:14Once again, on the show, you've just heard the latest or seen the latest Donald Trump tweet.
11:19He's threatening to obliterate any ship that tries to prevent this US blockade.
11:24It says the Iranian Navy has been destroyed, obliterated.
11:27It's down at the bottom of the sea.
11:29Is this rhetoric or do you believe Donald Trump means business when he talks of this blockade?
11:35Well, it's hard to know what he means.
11:37If you're in the United States Navy right now, you are asking, what is this blockade?
11:42How are we supposed to implement it?
11:44How do we sort through the various vessels that want to go into or come out of the Gulf?
11:49So I think he's made sweeping statements without having sat down, first of all, with the naval leadership and asked
11:56them what he thinks or what they think he can do.
12:00I think it's a very dangerous thing to do right now.
12:02We could end up at war very quickly with China and potentially with any number of different nations simply because
12:09we're halting their lifeline.
12:11We're stopping the lifeblood that needs to reach them.
12:15You know, Arnold Toynbee said that great powers do not die from attack from the outside.
12:22They die by suicide.
12:24And right at the moment, I think many of Donald Trump's policies are frankly suicidal.
12:30Yeah.
12:33You're saying that you're saying Donald Trump's blockade or threat of a blockade of Iranian ship of any ship entering
12:40or exiting the Strait of Hormuz is suicidal.
12:44You're suggesting it is impossible or very difficult to actually implement in the high seas.
12:50Am I correct?
12:51Yes, I think it's very difficult.
12:53And ultimately, the Iranians, I think, can outlast us.
12:56How long can we sit out there and interfere with global traffic before we end up in a fight?
13:01As I said before, with other nations, specifically China, we forget that higher oil feeds straight into inflation that hits
13:10farmers, truckers and family budgets.
13:11So this has got to stop.
13:15And the talks, unfortunately, ended with the submission of Israel's demands from Iran.
13:22We can't make Iran meet Israel's demands.
13:26That's the problem.
13:31But let's for a moment, we'll come to those demands, but let's once again focus on the Strait of Hormuz.
13:37Iran is claiming territorial sovereignty over it.
13:40But Donald Trump claims the Iranian Navy has been obliterated and is in no place to actually enforce its writ
13:50over the Strait of Hormuz.
13:52Do you believe he's bluffing or do you believe that is the reality that the Iranian Navy has been obliterated?
13:57I think that's something he believes, but it's meaningless because the Iranian Navy is not a force on the scale
14:04of, say, the Royal Navy, the Indian Navy or the United States Navy.
14:08They only have forces available to do limited operations, and that means that they can very easily block the Strait.
14:16They can mine it.
14:17They can use unmanned submersibles.
14:20They can send out speedboats that are unmanned with missiles.
14:23There are all sorts of things they can do.
14:25But the most important thing they can do is that they can target any U.S. naval vessel headed through
14:30the Straits.
14:31Two destroyers tried to get through there within the last 36 to 48 hours, and they were turned back very
14:37quickly.
14:38By men in small boats, who made it very clear that if they didn't turn back, they would be attacked
14:44by cruise missiles.
14:46Both Navy destroyers wisely retreated.
14:49So I don't think President Trump understands the extent to which warfare has changed and how effective Iran's missile and
14:58unmanned systems really are.
15:05There's, of course, also the danger which Iran has also, from its own point of view, threatened that there could
15:12be mines under the sea.
15:14Do you believe that the Iranians are also engaging in their own bluster here?
15:18Do they have, after this 40-day war, do you believe they have the capacity to once again confront the
15:24United States and Israel?
15:25Oh, absolutely, without question.
15:28And I think that's coming in another week when the ceasefire expires.
15:31They have mined portions of the strait.
15:34There's no question about that.
15:36And we have very limited demining capabilities.
15:40We don't have very many mine-clearing ships.
15:43In fact, I think we've got one.
15:45I'm not even sure it's fully commissioned and seaworthy.
15:48I don't think President Trump consulted with the naval leadership before he made these threats.
15:54He's saying one thing without understanding another.
15:58And that's very, very dangerous for any statesman at this point.
16:06Colonel, every time you've come on the show and a couple of times that you've come, you've said this is
16:11a war without a strategy.
16:12You seem to suggest this is another example of a war without a strategy.
16:16What would have been a better strategy, according to you, purely from a military perspective?
16:21What could Donald Trump have done that he hasn't done?
16:25Well, the first thing is he's got to recognize that this ISR strike system that the Iranians have built cannot
16:32be defeated.
16:33He refuses to do that.
16:35He's got to find a way to negotiate out of this mess.
16:38He's got to come to terms with the reality that the entire world is suffering economically, very dangerously, from our
16:45actions.
16:46He needs to think in terms of India, of Japan, of the Republic of Korea, Southeast Asia, Europe.
16:55All of these countries are dependent upon the oil from the Persian Gulf.
17:00He's utterly refused to do that.
17:02So he's irresponsible, to put it bluntly.
17:05Now, militarily, he's got to accept the fact if we can't defeat that system that I just mentioned, intelligence, surveillance,
17:12reconnaissance linked to strike systems, then militarily, there isn't a great deal that we can do.
17:18And if he tries to stop traffic from going in eventually, he's going to end up at war with someone
17:24somewhere.
17:25And I think the most likely candidate is China.
17:28And a war with China is the last thing anyone in their right mind wants.
17:31It doesn't make any sense, and it's unnecessary.
17:34But to do this, he's got to acknowledge what Iran has done.
17:38And he's got to also acknowledge that the country most likely to control the Straits in the future is Iran,
17:46just as Turkey controls the Straits of the Dardanelles.
17:50Same reason, same rationale.
17:52Turkey is the dominant power in the eastern Mediterranean.
17:55Iran is the dominant power in the Persian Gulf.
18:01You know, you've mentioned now on more than one occasion today the role of China.
18:06Just to put it in some context, Colonel McGregor, China accounts for about $32.5 billion worth of Iranian oil
18:15exports, representing roughly 90.8% of the total, averaging around 1,460,000 barrels per day.
18:22Do you believe that, therefore, any blockade of the Straits of Hormuz you see as a red rag to the
18:28Chinese, who are already in discussion with the Russians to try and bring an end to this blockade?
18:34Oh, absolutely.
18:36In fact, long before this war started, President Xi and his foreign minister both pleaded with Donald Trump to seriously
18:45reconsider the wisdom of employing military power against Iran.
18:50We didn't listen.
18:51China has always argued against the use of military power in the Gulf.
18:57For that matter, so has India, very wisely.
19:00None of this was necessary.
19:02This was all done at the behest of Israel and its agents in the United States.
19:07This is not in the American interest.
19:10So now what do we do?
19:12China has a great deal to lose.
19:14But China is already searching for and finding alternatives to supplement what it needs for its scientific industrial base.
19:24Russia will double down and provide more oil than it ever has before, obviously, to China, but so will other
19:29countries.
19:30But that's not enough, and that's not a long-term solution.
19:33So again, you need to end the conflict.
19:36There needs to be a great power conference.
19:38We need to come up with a new arrangement, a new convention for the Persian Gulf.
19:43We need to recognize this is a multipolar world.
19:47We are not the only game in town.
19:49We behave as though we're the center of the universe.
19:52We are not.
19:52This is the problem.
19:57You know, you're putting it very succinctly and very, you know, straight, you're shooting straight from the hip.
20:05But the Chinese reportedly, according to some reports, are also supplying potentially military hardware to the Iranians.
20:12Do you go along with those reports?
20:14Is China already in some form or the other involved in this conflict?
20:20Well, so are the Russians.
20:21The Russians have provided technical support and assistance, particularly with radars and missiles, so have the Chinese.
20:28And I'm not surprised by that.
20:30No one should be.
20:31We have been trying to build up a Ukrainian force inside Ukraine whose entire purpose was to destroy Russia.
20:39That has failed.
20:40But the Russians haven't forgotten what we did.
20:43Neither have the Chinese.
20:44The Chinese look at Iran and ask the following question.
20:48If the Americans are allowed to destroy Iran, even at the expense of the entire world, what will the Americans
20:55do to harm us over Taiwan?
20:58Now, if Taiwan is allowed to, it will vote itself into China eventually.
21:02That's quite clear.
21:03But we have made it clear that we want somehow or another to keep Taiwan out of China.
21:08So the Chinese have said, well, if we're going to help anybody, we better help the Iranians.
21:12And if we can help them and stop this madness now, then we can avoid future conflict with the United
21:18States.
21:19But I don't think anybody bargained for a naval blockade.
21:22And naval blockades are very, very risky affairs.
21:25It's very easy to get into a fight, sink the wrong vessel, and suddenly you find you're at war.
21:31And most of our major wars have begun at sea with naval forces.
21:36We are, after all, a global maritime and aerospace power.
21:39We are not a global land power.
21:41That's why we have an army that's far too small to mount any significant operations against Iran.
21:51So what you're saying, just as there are dangers in a ground invasion, which was being talked about a couple
21:56of weeks ago,
21:57there are serious dangers in trying to enforce a naval blockade, particularly because these ships will carry flags of different
22:04countries.
22:04And you cannot, you believe, enforce a blockade of this kind in an area as sensitive as the Strait of
22:13Hormuz at the moment.
22:14Am I broadly correct?
22:16Yes, and remember that anything that comes within 500 to 800 miles of the Strait of Hormuz can be targeted
22:24and attacked by the Iranians.
22:26For ships, that's deadly.
22:28Very easy to sink a destroyer.
22:30And they've already damaged many of our ships.
22:32So this is not an easy operation.
22:35And if you can't get closer to the Strait of Hormuz, what makes you think you can open it?
22:41And the answer is you can't.
22:42But here's the worst part.
22:43If we proceed down this road, in another week, the ceasefire will end and the war will resume.
22:51And when that resumes, the Iranians will do what they've said they will do.
22:55They will destroy all the remaining oil infrastructure on the western coast of the Gulf.
23:01That will put the Gulf out of reach for us for perhaps five to ten years, maybe longer.
23:07People are not going to go back into that area and rebuild.
23:10You are not going to get insurance organizations, corporations to underwrite shipping as long as the Strait of Hormuz is
23:17at the center of conflict.
23:19This needs to end.
23:21President Trump needs to be made to understand.
23:27So are you saying that you have very little hope that this ceasefire will now last?
23:32Do you fear the worst that post-April 22nd, given the belligerent position particularly Israel is taking and Donald Trump
23:39at the moment?
23:39Or do you believe all of this is posturing that eventually Donald Trump has to pull back, like it or
23:45not?
23:46I think eventually he does have to pull back, like it or not, or he will be removed from office.
23:52But as far as the Israelis are concerned, they want the complete destruction of Iran and the Iranian state.
23:59They want total domination of the region.
24:03And they have already said that Turkey is increasingly at least as dangerous, if not more dangerous, than Iran.
24:10So backing Israel at this stage means perpetual war.
24:13We have no interest that justifies that.
24:16Americans are not interested in this war.
24:19Americans are not interested in depriving anyone around the world from the oil resources they need and the petroleum products
24:25they need.
24:26So I think it's time for someone on the Hill, in the Congress, which is sat quietly taking money from
24:33Israel, and get down to the tough facts.
24:37Either President Trump stops or we remove him.
24:44In conclusion, one of those tough facts, General McGregor, is what started off about Iran's nuclear arsenal has become about
24:52the weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz.
24:54It almost seems as if the goalposts have completely changed.
24:58And that is part of the bizarreness of what we've seen over the last 40 days.
25:03Well, we also weaponized the financial system against the world.
25:07It's been weaponized against you, against China, against all countries, against the whole global South.
25:13We have been brutalizing and bullying people for years.
25:17This has got to stop.
25:18Now you're making smart moves.
25:21You have accumulated large quantities of gold.
25:23So has China.
25:24So has Russia.
25:25Russia, increasingly bricks, of which you are a critical part, are ultimately going to become gold-backed currency.
25:33In other words, they will become a serious economic player.
25:37What we have done, what the United States has done under Trump, is we have marginalized ourselves.
25:42We have done to ourselves what no one else could do.
25:45So my point is, either we stop this quickly and we recover over the next few years, or we persist,
25:53and it'll take us a decade to recover.
25:55Everyone, me as well as you.
25:57Our prices, by the way, for fuel oil are up 21%.
26:01We haven't seen anything like this since 1967.
26:08So in conclusion, 30 seconds, if you had a tweet to give Donald Trump as a counter-tweet to what
26:14he said, what would you tell him?
26:15What is that one piece of advice you would give the U.S. president today?
26:20As the person who describes himself as the leader of the quote-unquote free world, he has a responsibility, indeed
26:28an obligation, to end this conflict as soon as possible, to let the strait reopen on its own and allow
26:36oil to be transferred to the countries it desperately needed.
26:39In other words, he should be interested in protecting and nurturing commerce for international prosperity.
26:46At the same time, he should offer to sit down, along with all the other great powers, and come up
26:52with a new convention for the Strait of Hormuz, similar to the convention, the Montrose Convention, which governs the Dardanelles
27:01Strait.
27:05Okay, I'm going to leave it there, Gunan McGregor.
27:08As always, as I said, for bringing your clarity, speaking your mind out, appreciate you joining me here on the
27:14news today.
27:15Thanks very much.
27:19So how will Tehran now respond to Trump's decision to blockade ships entering or exiting the Strait of Hormuz?
27:27Joining me now, another special guest, Professor Alex Watanka, a senior fellow at the Iran Center of the Middle East
27:34Institute in Washington, D.C., someone who knows Tehran very well.
27:38He's been born in Tehran.
27:40Appreciate, Professor Watanka, you joining us.
27:42How do you see Iran responding?
27:45As of now, they're making it very clear that they see this blockade as an act of aggression being committed
27:51by Washington.
27:52But what are Iran's realistic options?
27:56It's great to be with you.
27:57Look, I agree.
27:58I think the Iranian side will look at this issue of a blockade of Iranian ports as an act of
28:07aggression.
28:08And we've already heard that they are retaliating or they're promising to retaliate in kind.
28:13I think the Trump administration had this card.
28:16They could have played it later.
28:18I think they are playing the blockade card too prematurely, simply because the talks in Islamabad, while they were not
28:25successful, they left the door for diplomacy open.
28:28And I would have played something like this card, blockading Iranian ports later on if diplomacy started looking like it
28:35was impossible to achieve anything.
28:37But we're not there yet.
28:38Diplomacy has just started at the highest level since 1979.
28:42So I think the Trump administration played this a bit prematurely.
28:47And I think they're still in the belief that the Iranian side only responds to threats and pressure, which is
28:54true to some extent.
28:55But as I said, we are where we are.
28:59We haven't really yet seen if this is going to be escalation that can be rolled back.
29:05I hope it can be rolled back.
29:06But obviously, both sides are still very much busy trying to posture and show the other side that they're not
29:13ready to cave in.
29:15But essentially, caving in and compromising is exactly what we need for some kind of deal to be reached.
29:24What we've seen, Professor Valanka, right through this conflict is tit for tat.
29:31What is Iran's likely response, given the fact that if this blockade continues, what are Iran's realistic options here?
29:42Well, the Iranians are saying if they cannot sell anything out of their ports, then nobody from the region can
29:47sell anything to the world from their ports.
29:49But basically, with the situation, with the energy crisis, the food crisis, it's just going to get even worse.
29:55And in a worst-case scenario, you could maybe see a situation where we have another crisis emerging nearby in
30:01Bab al-Mandeb,
30:02with the Houthis stopping to flow into the Red Sea of traffic, of shipping.
30:08And the Red Sea, as we know, is about 12% of global trade goes through the Red Sea.
30:12So, you know, I'm hoping we're not going to get there, because the world doesn't want to see that.
30:16And I'm hoping Iran and U.S. are still posturing to sort of show up in the next round of
30:22diplomatic talks,
30:23should they happen to get the best deal they can have.
30:26But right now, they have to soften their positions.
30:29Both of them have maximalist demands that are unrealistic.
30:32And if they can do that, then hopefully talk of blockading the ports of Iran and so forth
30:39will just be that talk and not much action.
30:42But obviously, we've seen both Iran and U.S., as you pointed out, engage in tit-for-tat for 40
30:47days of war,
30:48so they could continue that as well.
30:53I just want to understand, who is taking the decisions in Tehran, according to you, Professor Watanka?
31:00Because it was Mohamed Bagheir Galibaf, the parliamentary speaker who led the negotiations to Islamabad.
31:06Is he the one taking the calls?
31:09Is it the IRGC leadership which is taking the calls, even after several of their top commanders have been assassinated
31:15in the fighting?
31:17Is it the foreign minister?
31:19Who is really taking these big calls of how to respond to what the United States is doing?
31:25Yeah, I think it's a mistake for us to look for one individual or one group of people and say
31:31they are the key decision makers.
31:32Right now, decisions in Iran are being made collectively by different factions.
31:38The most important one, the Revolutionary Guards, Galibaf, comes from that school.
31:43But you've got also the diplomatic cadre of Araqchi, the foreign minister, and others.
31:48But it's a mistake to look at one individual.
31:50What we can say for sure is the Iranian side overwhelmingly want a diplomatic solution to this crisis,
31:57and that in itself is very good news.
32:02But do they have time on their side?
32:04Do you believe the Iranians have time on their side?
32:07Given that they've suffered pretty heavy bombardment, can they afford more days of bombardment along with the blockade?
32:13Israel again is threatening to once again carry out strikes.
32:18Does Iran really have time on their side or is this pure posturing?
32:23Remember the deadline itself, Professor, expires on the 22nd of April for the ceasefire.
32:28Do you see Iran holding out at least till then?
32:32Well, it's what they think.
32:34And they think time is on their side.
32:36It's not what I think or what the Americans think.
32:38They think.
32:39The Iranian side clearly thinks time is on their side.
32:42They say they have much more to gain by not giving up now that they have now shown that nobody
32:49can defeat the Islamic Republic militarily and that they have been sanctioned for decades.
32:53They have paid hundreds of billion dollars in damages over decades.
32:58They can continue to do that for a few more months and years as long as they can get what
33:03they think is their right, which is, in this case, enrichment of uranium and so forth.
33:07But I think they feel that they're in a good place to engage in a war of attrition.
33:12And they consider the American president, Donald Trump, as someone who wants to get out of this war.
33:17He wants to focus on other things like the World Cup, like upcoming elections in the United States.
33:21And not to mention, this is the year the United States is celebrating 250 years of the American Republic.
33:27I don't think Donald Trump wants to go into that celebration with a big war at least.
33:32So that's how the Iranians look at it.
33:34They could easily be wrong.
33:35They have miscalculated with Trump before.
33:38They could miscalculate again.
33:39But as of today, I think they think time is on their side and they're not ready to just give
33:44everything away just because Donald Trump says so.
33:51There are two aspects, of course, critical to the Iranians.
33:54One is dismantling of their nuclear infrastructure, which they've said is unacceptable to them.
34:00The other is the Strait of Hormuz.
34:02They want to retain their territorial sovereignty over it.
34:06Which of these do you believe the Iranians could blink at?
34:09Or are these two simply non-negotiables from an Iranian perspective?
34:14Well, look, one is a short-term issue.
34:16One is a long-term issue.
34:17The short-term issue is obviously Strait of Hormuz.
34:19Because the world is feeling the pain because of the blockade or what Iran is doing, hijacking the traffic at
34:27the Strait.
34:28So that's a short-term issue.
34:30The Iranians have put that up front and center in their demand so far in Islamabad and even before Islamabad
34:37talks.
34:38So I suspect they want something in return.
34:40They have mentioned a couple of things that are important.
34:43One is unfreezing of American—I'm sorry, of Iranian assets around the world, $100 to $120 billion.
34:49And then they are trying to get the Israelis to back off from attacking Lebanon, which is another Iranian red
34:55line.
34:55So that's in the short term.
34:57Going forward long-term, the nuclear issue—Iran's nuclear program right now is not a threat to the United States.
35:02It's not a problem for tomorrow or next week or next month.
35:06It will be a problem if Iran has gone back to rebuilding.
35:09And again, they want something in return for that.
35:11And that's why diplomacy is so critical, that Iran can prove that it's a civilian program and not aimed at
35:19a nuclear weapon, as Trump fears it is.
35:23Okay, I'm going to leave it there.
35:25Very fascinating listening to you, Professor Watanka.
35:28You are with the Iran Center, the Middle East Institute.
35:31I appreciate you joining me here on the news today.
35:39So what does this blockade, this proposed blockade, naval blockade by President Trump mean for us in India?
35:46That's what I want to turn to.
35:47First, let's get some hard details.
35:49Crude oil shipments, listen carefully, passing through the Straits of Hormuz are heavily directed towards Asia.
35:56For us, that is the main route for our oil supplies.
35:59China is the largest recipient at about 4.6 million barrels per day.
36:05India follows next, 2.1 billion dollars per day, while other, about 80% of our oil comes through it.
36:11While other Asian nations collectively account for the biggest share at around 6.2 million barrels per day.
36:18And that includes, remember, Japan.
36:21In contrast, much smaller volumes go to the other countries.
36:24Europe receives approximately 0.6 million barrels.
36:28The Americas about 0.5 million barrels.
36:30Africa, the least at roughly 0.2 million barrels per day.
36:35Overall, the data highlights that a vast majority of the oil transported through this critical choke point.
36:42And the big leverage that Iran now has is destined for Asian markets.
36:48I'm joined at this moment by another special guest, Ambassador Navdeep Suri, former Indian Ambassador to UAE, Egypt and Australia.
36:56Appreciate you joining us.
36:58Mr. Suri, what are you making out of Donald Trump's naval blockade in the context of India specifically at the
37:04very outset?
37:05Is this something that we should be raising our voice and saying, sorry, Mr. Trump, you cannot hold just as
37:12the Iranians are being accused of a chokehold.
37:14You can't respond with a naval blockade that will only escalate and worsen the problems that countries like India face,
37:22particularly with oil supplies.
37:24We should, we must, whether we do it publicly or we do it privately is a different matter.
37:30And that's something that our tactics or our approach on diplomacy will decide.
37:36But there's no doubt that right from the attack launched by Israel and the United States on the 28th of
37:42February, our vital national interests have been hurt badly by this unwanted and illegal war.
37:49And so we are, we have every right to protest.
37:54And what you're seeing, Rajdeep, is really an utter breakdown of the international order.
38:01Americans used to talk about the rules-based order.
38:04And today, the wantonness with which it is being flouted by the Americans, by the Israelis, by the Iranians, doesn't
38:14leave very much left.
38:17So just as the Iranian attempt to blockade Hormuz is illegal, and I know your previous speaker, Rajdeep, was speaking
38:30about possible comparisons with the Montrose Protocol and the Strait of Dardanelles, which cuts through the Bosphorus.
38:39You have Turkey on both sides on that.
38:41So to that extent, it has a different status that on either side of the straits is Turkey.
38:47Here, you have an international waterway with Oman on one side and Iran on the other.
38:54And if you allow Iran to get away with this notion of a toll gate, then think the consequences at
39:02Malacca, at Sunda, at Gibraltar, at all of these other international choke points which are so crucial to international commerce.
39:10And that's why you have the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea, to enable that commerce to happen.
39:16So I really hope that we raise our voice on both, on the Iranian closure and on the American blockade
39:25or the plans to blockade it, which are going to be terrible from our point of view.
39:30You'll see oil prices go up immediately.
39:36You know, you're making an important point.
39:37You're saying India has to speak out both against Iran, trying to use the Strait of Hormuz as a toll
39:43gate, and you've got to speak out against the United States, trying to enforce a naval blockade.
39:48We've already seen the British Prime Minister, Mr. Starmer, today speak out strongly on it.
39:53We've seen Australia and its foreign ministry speak out strongly on it, that they are opposed to this blockade.
39:58Should we be, in your view, therefore, being a little bit more willing now to tell both Tehran and Washington
40:05enough is enough?
40:07Are we in a position, in your view, to do that in our, is it in our national interest to
40:12speak out at this moment and not too late?
40:16Absolutely. Even if it is late, we should still speak up.
40:19It is never too late for that.
40:21And I really think that we are a large country.
40:25For us, no matter whether we get oil from Venezuela or Russia or even from the United States, the most
40:32proximate source of energy for us is the Gulf.
40:35It's just a few days sailing from any of the ports in the Gulf to our West Coast, and our
40:41refineries are geared for that.
40:43So, and it isn't just, Rajdeep, I should add, when you talk about a blockade by Iran or by the
40:50United States, it isn't just what is coming out.
40:52It's also what's going in, right?
40:55All of these countries around the Gulf are heavily dependent on food, imported food grains and other stuff.
41:02Our basmati shipments, I know from Punjab, are completely stranded today.
41:06Tens of thousands of tons are stranded because they can't get through.
41:10Our exporters are suffering as well.
41:12So, it's not just the energy shock for the Indian economy, but also what the exporters are going through.
41:17Because remember, the GCC is our largest single trading partner.
41:23UAE alone, with $100 billion of two-way trade, is our third largest trading partner after the United States and
41:29China.
41:30And today, those markets are choked for our exporters.
41:37Out of this, you know, I want to understand, Mr. Suri, though, the GCC countries, you've been an ambassador and
41:45served in UAE.
41:46You've seen Iran drop their missiles on UAE, on Kuwait, on Qatar, on Saudi Arabia, on Bahrain.
41:55Do you believe that these countries will also now speak out because they also stand to lose out, both from
42:02the toll gate that Iran imposes if they do one, and from the blockade?
42:06Should there therefore be now a more concerted effort to try and ensure that this conflict does not just spiral
42:14out of control once again?
42:16Some of them are speaking up.
42:18The Emiratis have probably been the most vociferous about it.
42:22And their CEO of ADNOC, Dr. Sultan Jabbar, has gone ahead and said that Iran doesn't own the strait.
42:30It's an international waterway.
42:32The Qataris are upset as well.
42:34But I think we are some distance away from a concerted or coordinated GCC approach because there are intersea differences
42:44between the GCC member states in terms of how aggressive they wish to be against Iran.
42:51There's one school of thought which says that this is not our war.
42:54And if we get into it with a larger, more powerful neighbor, understanding that the United States will back us
43:02up, well, they've had a reality check on that, that the U.S. can walk away at any point of
43:07time, leaving them high and dry against a wounded and angry neighbor.
43:13On the other hand, they are also concerned that if Iran is weakened by this continuing offensive to a point
43:20where Israel emerges as the regional hegemon, and given how belligerent it has been in attacking half a dozen countries
43:30over the last year, and how expansionist it seems to be with Lebanon, Syria, and other places, there is a
43:38genuine concern, which is worse for us?
43:40Is it a belligerent and expansionist Israel, which is unchallenged regional power, or is it an unstable and unpredictable Iran?
43:49And these are real dilemmas for them.
43:54Right. I'm going to leave it there, Nadeem Suri.
43:58I think you've put it in some kind of context for our viewers, particularly of the need why India must
44:03speak up at this moment.
44:05Thank you very much for joining me.
44:06And one of the reasons we must speak up is because what we are doing is a costs of war
44:11series.
44:11It's not making the headlines, but it is there on the ground.
44:14Now, even in Mumbai, the real estate sector facing a serious setback as labor shortage is hitting construction sites in
44:22the city.
44:22Rising cooking gas prices, expensive food, and even migration linked to elections in states like West Bengal are forcing workers
44:30to return home.
44:31Take a look at tonight's cost of war package.
44:56The construction activity in Mumbai is slowing down, not due to lack of projects,
45:02but due to severe shortage of workers.
45:07Builders say the situation is unprecedented.
45:21At some sites, only a handful of workers remain.
45:49Added to the problem, the cost of raw materials has surged.
45:54With labor shortages, the cost of raw materials has surged.
45:55And rising costs hitting the sector simultaneously, delays in project delivery now seem inevitable.
46:01With Mustafa Sheikh, Bureau Report, India Today.
46:06India bid farewell today to the one and only Asha Bhosle.
46:11The most amazing, versatile singer Asha Bhosle, who passed away yesterday, was today cremated with full state honors at the
46:19Shivaji Park Crematorium in Mumbai.
46:22Several actors, music composers, and indeed politicians and public figures were there as Asha Bhosle was given full state honors.
46:32Remember, she's a Padma Vibhushan and someone who dazzled with her music and her sheer range of songs for several
46:40decades.
46:41With her passing away, Indian music has fallen silent in a way because she was part of what is often
46:49described as the golden generation of Indian music.
46:53I want to, at this point, pay a special tribute.
46:56And joining me now to pay that is Shamir Tandan, his music composer and one of the last people to
47:02record with Asha Bhosle.
47:04I'll ask my producer to slightly put the volume of the music down.
47:08But Shamir, you tell us, what was Asha Bhosle like?
47:13You, in a recent blog, have called her I, which is a mother.
47:17What was she like for many of the younger music composers?
47:22Well, Rajdeep, I must say that she took a promise from me as early as last week that she wants
47:31to exit.
47:32And when she moves on to the other side, we should all smile and happily bid her farewell and celebrate
47:40her music more than a life, which, of course, had its own traumas, but a musical career.
47:47So, that's why today I stand robust and I speak for her.
47:52Well, I was a managing director of a very big multinational corporation by Richard Branson.
47:57And she was the one who converted me from a managing director to a music director.
48:03And hence, she is an I for me.
48:05In fact, she's almost, I mean, she's always treated me as a son.
48:11I have spent a lot of time and I have learned life lessons from her and management lessons from her,
48:16which no business school taught me, including my visit to Boston before I turned a composer.
48:21Well, what I learned from her is what she used to tell me, you know, Shamir Panchamda, which I used
48:26to tell me, you know, Shamir Panchamda, which I always said, that if you're going to be able to understand
48:29the technology, you're not going to be outdated.
48:33That's why I recorded her song in the page screen.
48:36She was in San Francisco back in 2003.
48:38There were no Zoom calls like this.
48:40But I sent her some files on an email and she sang,
48:47And she sent multiple files.
48:49And when I, when she came back from Frisco and I did Sashal Namaskar to her and I asked her
48:54why for an income poop, a newcomer, did you sing?
48:56You know, sitting there, you could have just told me, no, it's just a small film called Vesri, why I
49:01lend my voice.
49:03But she said that Panchamda had said that Asha, till your last breath, you need to update yourself with technology.
49:11And even at 92, she would have discussions with me on copyrights and royalties and AI and podcasts and so
49:18be it.
49:19You know, I mean, and I was fortunate that two weeks ago I recorded a song with her.
49:28Go ahead, go ahead, complete.
49:29I said, I was fortunate a few weeks ago to have recorded a song with her written by the exemplary
49:35Prasoon Joshi,
49:37which is a song which she actually relates to, related to, because it said,
49:42Jane do, jane do, thud se milna hai, ab jane do.
49:49Na roko na toko, ab bas jane do.
49:52I want to ask you though, you, you know, I have to ask you because I have prepared today the
50:01fact of my Asha Bosley favorites.
50:03I was on a flight and this is just a selection.
50:05I could pick many, many more songs because from gazelle to pop, she masters all genres.
50:11So I'm going to relate my top 11 and then you can tell me your top three.
50:16Think about it, but look at my top 11 and I've chosen songs, which I believe in some instances,
50:22no one else could have sung.
50:23Pia tu ab to aja, Karwa, Helen, R.D. Burman, Monica, oh my darling.
50:29You know, that entire song was magic.
50:31Rat Akeli hai, composed by S.D. Burman, absolute magic in terms of haunting music, jewel thief.
50:38Diwana Hua Badal, my favorite all-time duet, Kashmir Ki Kali with Mohamed Rafi.
50:43Abhi Na Jao, chhodke from Hum Dono, another duet with Rafi Saab, Jai Dev's music, classic again.
50:51Churaliya hai, tumne jo dil ko, yadu ki bharatma entire generation grew up on Zinat Aman, listening to that song.
50:59Mera Kuch Saman, tumhare paas padha hai, she won a national award for it, penned by Gulzhar Saab and R
51:05.D.
51:05That's the ultimate triumvirate.
51:08Paan Ghaiyo Sahiya from Tisri Kasm, because just the different nature of that song.
51:13Dam Maro Dam, Hare Ram, Hare Krishna, captured the sort of early 1970s again with Zinat Aman.
51:20Aaja Aaja, mein huu piyaar tera, from Tisri Manzil, a classic again.
51:26And she was, you know, able to do all the kind of yodeling and other things that was required.
51:31In Aakho Ki Masti, classic gazal, Umrao Jaan, penned by, composed by Khayam Saab.
51:37And finally, duniya mein, logo ko, you know, I just played a video of that earlier today on Twitter with
51:44R.D. and her.
51:45Out of all these songs, what for you is a song that defined Aasha?
51:49Is there a song that, in your view, defined who Aasha Bhosle was?
51:55Rajdeep, you allow me to say, to speak my heart.
51:58While these are, of course, the songs which are the songs that define generations galore.
52:05But I must say that she narrated an instance to me when she was doing an album with Ghulam Ali.
52:13And she said, you know, Pakistan ke itne diggach kalakar aare hai hai, to mujhe bhi dikhana padega ki mai
52:20ek mangesh kar hun.
52:21Aur mujhe, and we all know, and hum mazak karte thee ki, you ate all those people for breakfast when
52:29you actually sang.
52:30Similarly, when she sang with Musrat Pateli Khan, po kacche dhaage, you know, she was very nervous.
52:36She would tell me ki, ye sab bade-bade khasab aare hai, or hum Marathi hai, aur unko pata nahi
52:40wo kis tarikaya ki Urdu ko leker aayenge,
52:42kya hum usko nipha pahenge mukammal taur se.
52:44And she said, but then I went and I just prayed to God and I prayed to my own sister
52:49and I said,
52:49Didi, give me that ashirwaad that today I go and ram that song.
52:54And we all know that when she sang duets with all these people on the other side of the border
52:59also,
53:00she actually ate them all for breakfast.
53:06You know, so she, in a way what you are saying, her genius was that she could adjust from the,
53:12from 1943 she sang her first song at the age of 10.
53:16She sung bhajan, she sung gazal, she sung kawali, she sung disco, she sung pop.
53:22There's nothing that she didn't do in every language and that in a way makes her so remarkable.
53:28Shami Tandan, for sharing some of those memories, including that last recording that you had with Asha Bosley,
53:34the one and only Asha Bosley, I had the privilege of interviewing her as she turned 90 in August 2024.
53:40I will never forget that experience.
53:42And I only want to say to Asha Thay, you know, what people don't know is you were a great
53:47singer,
53:47but you were also someone who cooked the best prawn curry rice that I knew of.
53:52And I will leave you with a song, my friends, today.
53:55A song that for me typified Asha's just range.
54:01Because she had that range, which no other singer had.
54:08Good night, good bye, thank you for the memories.
54:12Bye for now, listen to me.
54:26Bye for now, listen to me.
54:44Bye for now, listen to me.
55:14Bye for now, listen to me.
55:18Bye for now, listen to me.
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