- 40 minutes ago
The big talking point of this episode of News Today is escalating West Asia tensions and the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
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00:01Hello and welcome. You're with the news today, your prime time destination news,
00:06Newsmakers Talking Points Tuesday night. We continue our focus on that big blockade
00:12on the Strait of Hormuz. Is there a danger now of escalation by the day? China is entering the
00:19fray warning against the Hormuz blockade. We'll have experts on that. What role is China really
00:26playing now? Also, Neetish Raj is over. India's longest serving Hindi heartland chief minister
00:33is replaced by Samrat Chaudhary. The BJP gets its first Bihar chief minister. More on that
00:40on the show tonight. But first, as always, it's time for the nine headlines at nine.
00:45Prime Minister Modi and US President Donald Trump have a 40-minute phone conversation,
00:51the first since the West Asia ceasefire. The prime minister stresses on the importance of keep
00:56the Strait open and secure. Pakistan proposes a second round of talks between US and Iran,
01:06even though Tehran rules out any planned dialogue for now. China slams the United States over the
01:15Strait of Hormuz blockade, calls their action irresponsible and dangerous. This even as China
01:20meets with the foreign minister of Russia and one of Beijing's sanctioned vessels managed to cross the
01:27Hormuz joke point. A new era in Bihar after 20 years. Neetish Kumar resigns as the chief minister
01:34as he heads to the Rajya Sabha. Samrat Chaudhary elected as the NDA legislative party leader to take
01:40oath as Bihar's first BJP chief minister tomorrow.
01:46Representation in the Lok Sabha are set to go up to 850. Paving way for 33% seats to be
01:52reserved for
01:53women. The opposition cries foul over delimitation. Stalin warns of a massive protest that will bring
01:59Tamil Nadu to a standstill, telling that our chief minister, Revant Reddy, calls for a united push
02:05against the centre's plans. India's growth story gets a fresh boost. International Monetary Fund raises
02:14India's financial year 2027 GDP forecast to 6.5% despite the global conflict headwinds.
02:22A deadly boiler explosion at a Vedanta power plant in Chhattisgarh leaves at least 10 workers dead,
02:29over 30 injured, toll expected to rise further, with rescue ops still going on.
02:36Fresh worker protests erupt across Noida for a second day in a row, even as the police claim
02:41that the protests appear to have been carefully coordinated rather than spontaneous.
02:47The probe into the TCS Nashik alleged conversion case widens. Police sources cite that WhatsApp chats,
02:54testimonies and a suspected Malaysia-linked preacher indicate a wider network within the office
03:00now in the eye of a storm.
03:10The big breaking news this evening. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the US President Donald Trump
03:15has spoken on phone for the first time since the two-week ceasefire was announced a few days ago.
03:22On his Twitter handle, the Prime Minister shared that the situation in West Asia was discussed
03:27and they stressed on the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and secure.
03:32The conversation apparently went for as long as 40 minutes.
03:35The two leaders also reviewing progress in bilateral talks.
03:39Geeta Mohan, my colleague, joins me at this moment.
03:41Our diplomatic affairs editor, Geeta, significance of these talks coming as they do within days
03:47of that ceasefire happening and then the talks failing in Pakistan.
03:52Well, that's right. India is an important partner, important country.
03:56And that's the reason why we've seen quite a few conversations between President Trump
04:01and Prime Minister Modi.
04:02But it was a 40-minute conversation that included every ambit of the relations between US and India.
04:12And the closure of the Strait of Hormuz being one of them,
04:15where Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized the importance of reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
04:19But then again, the conversation would not have been only one way on reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
04:25and letting the naval blockade remain.
04:28The naval blockade also has been a huge problem for India
04:31because up until now, Rajdeep, at least Indian vessels were being allowed
04:34to move out of the Strait of Hormuz after the naval blockade.
04:38So has Prime Minister...
04:39Indian vessels have not left.
04:40Sorry to interrupt.
04:41So has the Prime Minister raised the issue of the blockade with President Trump?
04:45Well, these are questions we have posed.
04:47We are still waiting for an answer on details.
04:49For now, we are going with what Prime Minister Narendra Modi has posted on X,
04:53which only speaks about the Strait of Hormuz
04:57and the importance and the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,
05:00is a line that is very much aligned with the American position at this point in time.
05:08Okay, we'll wait and see whether India has also raised the issue of that naval blockade of the United States.
05:13Sketchy details coming out.
05:14Geeta Mohan joining me on that conversation between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump.
05:19In fact, it is blockade versus blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
05:23Let's get you all the top war developments at this hour.
05:27Blockade tension in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 80% of India's oil supplies go through,
05:32is now escalating.
05:33Even as the U.S. enforces that naval blockade on Iran,
05:37at least three Iran-linked and sanctioned tankers,
05:40including a China-linked vessel,
05:42have crossed the strategic choke point,
05:45directly testing Washington's red lines.
05:48Tehran is weighing a pause in the shipments,
05:50Beijing strongly objecting to the U.S. blockade,
05:53calling it dangerous and irresponsible.
05:56After the high-stakes talks collapsed in Islamabad,
05:59the Iran nuclear deadlock now out in the open.
06:01Washington is pushing for a 20-year freeze on uranium enrichment,
06:05removal of stockpiles and sweeping restrictions.
06:08Iran, Tehran is countering with just a five-year pause and a monitored dilution plan instead.
06:15After a breakdown in talks,
06:17diplomacy, though still very much in play,
06:19Donald Trump has told New York Post his team may go to Pakistan for another round of talks
06:23before the ceasefire deadline expires next week.
06:26He also said talks may be taking place over the next two days.
06:30Pakistan stepping in with a fresh proposal.
06:33Israel and Lebanon negotiations have also begun at the U.S. State Department.
06:37Israel and Hezbollah continuing to exchange strikes.
06:40Hezbollah has already rejected the outcome of any direct talks.
06:44Israel remains firm on disarmament of the militia, not a ceasefire.
06:49Global economic alarm bells ringing louder.
06:52The IMF warned the West Asia war can trigger the largest energy crisis in modern times.
06:57They've cut global growth forecasts for 2026 to 3.1 percent.
07:01Developing economies expected to take the biggest hit.
07:05India, however, stands out.
07:07Slight growth upgrade given by the IMF to 6.5 percent for 26-27.
07:13Okay.
07:16Let's raise some of the big questions at this moment.
07:19Is Hormuz blockade, is it now going to escalate even further and make the war even more dangerous?
07:25Is Trump losing the plot, as many are suggesting?
07:28Or is this just posturing that we are seeing in Hormuz for the talks itself?
07:33My next guest, my first guest tonight, is Major Mike Lyons, retired U.S. Army Major and Military Analyst, someone
07:39who participated in Operation Desert Storm.
07:42Appreciate, Mr. Lyons, you joining me.
07:44How are you seeing the attitude taken by Donald Trump?
07:48We've had guests who've been very critical of Donald Trump.
07:51One of them yesterday saying that his policies are suicidal.
07:55Do you see them as suicidal or do you believe the blockade is justified?
08:00Thanks for having me.
08:01No question.
08:02The blockade is the next step in this process from the president's perspective.
08:05He's someone that always looks for leverage in any kind of situation.
08:09And I think he's turned this situation on its head when Iran said they were blockading it.
08:14The United States comes in and says, no, we're going to do that.
08:15We're going to prevent Iranian oil from getting out.
08:19And we're going to prevent you from generating revenue.
08:21So it is somewhat high risk.
08:23I think there's no such thing as an escalation ladder in this situation.
08:27I think we're already at this spot where the United States will continue to do things on grander scale as
08:34opposed to small scale.
08:35No one's looking for small incremental changes at this point.
08:39They're looking for things that are going to be impactful.
08:40I think the president wants the situation over quickly, but he wants it over in his conditions, which are no
08:46nuclear weapons for the Iranians.
08:48You know, you're saying he wants it over quickly.
08:49It's already 40 days and counting, more than 40 days and counting.
08:53He said that originally said it would end by the end of March.
08:55We're now in the middle of April and it shows no signs of ending.
08:59Certainly the Iranians aren't blinking at the moment.
09:02China is now calling the U.S. attitude on the blockade dangerous and irresponsible.
09:07Has Donald Trump bitten more than he can chew for once?
09:10Has he got it horribly wrong, as his critics are suggesting?
09:14Yeah, no, I don't think so.
09:16Again, I don't want to necessarily talk about Donald Trump himself.
09:18I want to talk about the strategy and the policy.
09:20I think the policy is sound going to war with Iran right now, given the fact that Iran has been
09:25at war with the United States for the past 47 years.
09:27So I think taking care of this at this point where Iran is weakest was the time to do it.
09:32I think the military gave the president all the leverage he needs to when it comes to negotiating.
09:37And I think the team is doing the right thing by getting the Iranians to agree.
09:41Now, the president does speak very rhetorically, and he speaks in absolutes, and he's talking to a lot of different
09:46people.
09:47He talks sometimes to the Iranian people, sometimes to the United States public, sometimes to the global markets.
09:52And I think you've got to listen to what he's saying and who he's saying it to in order to
09:55kind of suss out specifically what's going on.
09:58But, Mr. Land, what is his strategy?
10:00A war that ostensibly began over Iran's nuclear enrichment program, even as negotiations were on in Geneva, has now become
10:10about the Strait of Hormuz and about Iran reopening it.
10:14What is the strategy?
10:15It seems the goalposts have kept changing.
10:18No, I don't think the goalposts have changed.
10:20The president is looking for the Iranian regime to comply with his nuclear directives.
10:26That's what the goal is.
10:27That's never changed.
10:28The Straits of Hormuz, these are tactical considerations that the Iranians tried to play as they really only have asymmetrical
10:36cards left.
10:36What that means is there's smaller ways to attack mines, coastal batteries.
10:40Their air defense platforms have been destroyed at scale.
10:43So, no, I don't think the goalposts have changed at all.
10:45And I don't think the president is necessarily looking for regime change.
10:49He's looking for regime compliance.
10:51But I think the challenge Iran has, as he's pointed out, is there's no communication inside the regime.
10:57The IRGC basically controls everything.
10:59And I think the president's willing to give them some face-saving measure to get out of it.
11:04But what that is acceptable to the hardliners, we don't know.
11:07So let's see what happens.
11:08And let's give this a few more days before potentially the ceasefire is over and the United States can reengage
11:13in some military targets.
11:15So what happens next?
11:16What's your belief?
11:17The deadline expires next week, 21st of April, the two-week ceasefire deadline.
11:23Do you believe that we will see further military escalation?
11:26Or do you believe it's more likely that both sides will try and buy some more time?
11:31I don't think the United States is letting Iran buy any more time, which is what they would want to
11:36do.
11:36They've got a history of being deceitful and not negotiating good faith.
11:40And I think that the president wants to get this finished.
11:43And I think that the military strikes in the future will be against military targets.
11:47I don't think he'll destroy their power plants.
11:49He might destroy some capability that the military has towards using some of those power plants.
11:54But it's not about punishing the civilians.
11:57I think he's looking for a visual sign of victory, perhaps the invasion of Karg Island.
12:02Maybe the United States tries to take over some of the Iranian facilities there.
12:07But Iran does not have a lot of cards left.
12:09And that's the military reality of the situation.
12:12And if the president can outdo the internal politics of what's happening back home and abroad,
12:16I think he'll continue to fight in the direction he's fighting.
12:19So very quickly, in conclusion, you're saying you expect the conflict to carry on if the ceasefire,
12:26if before that ceasefire deadline expires, the two sides aren't able to come to a minimal settlement.
12:32And you're saying all the United States, not a ground invasion, but could possibly try and take over Karg Island.
12:39There's no ground invasion to be had.
12:41The United States military and the army is not deployed.
12:44They're not sending any large formations over there.
12:46No Abrams tanks.
12:47The United States will not make the same mistake it made in Iraq and Afghanistan.
12:51This will continue from the air and will continue to squeeze out economically from the Iranians.
12:55It would be in their best interest to do a deal with Donald Trump.
12:58Because once they do, and American dollars and American interests pour into that country,
13:03it'll start to grow and flourish.
13:05Iran is a beautiful country.
13:06Great tourism.
13:08There's lots of things going on there that they could be part of the international community.
13:11The Arab states want that to happen as well.
13:13I think this is the right way to go, and the president's going to keep the course.
13:16Okay, I'm going to leave it there, Mr. Lyons.
13:18I appreciate you joining me and telling us what you believe Donald Trump's next plans will be.
13:24Thank you very much for joining me here on the show tonight.
13:27Okay.
13:27Now, remember, as the tensions rise in West Asia, and as our guest said, there's no signs of them easing.
13:33Yet the spotlight remains squarely on the Strait of Hormuz.
13:36This tiny waterway that Iran has ineffectively weaponized, and the U.S. has now blockaded, all causing global concern.
13:45Amidst all of this, there is one key player that hasn't been talked about.
13:49China.
13:50The tone of Beijing is sharpening amidst growing economic stakes and energy dependence on the Gulf.
13:56Today, China called the U.S. moves irresponsible, and at the same time reached out to Russia in a meeting
14:05between the foreign ministers.
14:07Is China now going to play a bigger role in the West Asia war?
14:11Take a look.
14:15The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is inflicting more pain on the globe.
14:20But one nation stands out.
14:22China.
14:24Which has straight ties with Iran as well as other Gulf nations.
14:29Beijing, which has slammed Donald Trump's war on Iran, has so far preferred to watch the action from the sidelines.
14:39After the U.S. imposed blockade, China appears to be recalibrating its moves.
14:45For one, communication from Beijing is taking a harsher tone.
14:53China's Defence Minister, Admiral Dong Jun, said in a statement on Monday,
14:57Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.
15:02We have trade and energy agreements with Iran.
15:04We will respect and honour them and expect others not to meddle in our affairs.
15:10Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open for us.
15:16Beijing is busy navigating the crisis it finds itself in,
15:20as it is a major importer of crude oil from the Gulf.
15:25China is hosting Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi,
15:28Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
15:33Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, and Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez,
15:39and West Asia war is on the agenda in these talks.
15:46In his meetings with the UAE Crown Prince,
15:49Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed on four principles to resolve West Asia crisis.
15:55He framed them as peaceful coexistence, national sovereignty,
16:01international rule of law,
16:03and balanced approach to development and security.
16:08China's statements assume significance,
16:10as US media has been quoting intelligence sources
16:13to say Beijing is helping Iran fight the war.
16:21At one point, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that backed Tehran.
16:29China is preparing the ship, why is it to arrive?
16:32Well, if China does that, China's going to have big problems, OK?
16:37China has rejected allegations and threatened counter-tariffs.
16:44China always acts prudently and responsibly on the export of military products
16:50and exercises strict control in accordance with China's laws and regulations
16:54on export control and due international obligations.
16:58China opposes groundless smear and ill-intentioned association.
17:07Since the Hormuz blockade kicked in on Monday,
17:10three ships have moved across the strait.
17:13One of them, Rich Story, which is carrying chemicals,
17:16is a Chinese vessel sanctioned by the US.
17:22Is Trump's blockade just posturing ahead of potential second round of talks with Iran
17:27or preparations for escalation of war?
17:31All eyes are on the strait of Hormuz for now.
17:35Bureau Report, India Today.
17:40So, what is the China factor exactly that could now influence the West Asia war?
17:46All eyes are on Beijing.
17:48Joining me now, two special guests,
17:50Aina Tangan, international commentator on geopolitics based in Beijing,
17:55and Brahma Chanani, leading strategic affairs expert here in New Delhi.
17:59Appreciate both of you joining us.
18:01I want to come to you first, Aina,
18:03because what we are seeing in the last few days
18:06is China playing a more proactive role,
18:08possibly as a mediator in the West Asia crisis.
18:12Is that what China wants to do?
18:14When we see the Chinese president talking to the crown prince of UAE,
18:19when we hear of the Russian foreign minister now in Beijing,
18:23is China playing a big role behind the scenes to persuade Tehran in particular
18:28to agree to some kind of a negotiated settlement?
18:33I don't think it's quite that simple,
18:35but also Spain and Vietnam have been here in the last couple of days.
18:39So, what China is doing is they're trying to rebuild the table of trust.
18:44You can't sit across and negotiate with somebody you just do not trust,
18:48and the United States, from Iran's point of view, is not trustworthy.
18:51They were attacked twice while they were sitting at the conference table,
18:57and they don't really believe that anything the U.S. does.
19:00So, if they're going to sit down and start trying to figure out what happens next,
19:05there has to be some basis to get them together,
19:08and there has to be a different formula for doing that.
19:11Now, you know, China, like India, is a civilization state.
19:16It's not like these conquering entities, Europe and America,
19:21where it was when you were making peace,
19:24it was simply taking a piece from somebody else.
19:27What they really want to see is a consensus, cooperation, and trust,
19:32and that's going to require not just China, not just India,
19:37but the whole of the BRICS, South America, Africa, Central Asia.
19:44You're saying that there could be a wider BRICS attempt,
19:49including Russia, including India, to achieve South Africa,
19:52to achieve a negotiated settlement, but I want to understand from you,
19:56isn't it true that China has a very special relationship with Tehran?
20:00There have already been news reports just in the last week,
20:03New York Times, CNN reporting China was preparing to ship new air defense systems to Iran,
20:09based on U.S. intelligence reports.
20:12Is there a deeper relationship that China has with Tehran,
20:15which is now slowly coming out?
20:16Is China backing Iran in some way behind the scenes here?
20:21No, I mean, the intelligence reports have been refuted by Beijing.
20:26They say they do sell dual-use equipment to Iran as well as the United States and everybody else.
20:34At this point, they are not waging in in terms of backing any candidate.
20:40They actually have somewhat of a relationship with all the parties.
20:45Donald Trump is reputedly coming to Beijing.
20:48That invitation has not been withdrawn.
20:51This idea that somehow China is trying to move the chessboard around
20:55when it's simply trying to have a chessboard that the players can be on is the issue here.
21:01And right now, there's a lot of people saying,
21:04well, China should solve what the problem that America has created,
21:08where China is really concerned, is about the global situation.
21:12When I say the BRICS, I don't mean that there's a formal plan in place to bring them in.
21:18And I'm just saying that if the BRICS, EU, and the rest of the world were to go to both
21:25of these countries,
21:25Iran and the United States, and say, knock it off or we will stop trading with you,
21:31I think that would be the only way you could bring them to the peace table
21:35because then they know that there is going to be an equal voice.
21:40You know, you're saying China is worried about the global interest in ending this war early,
21:44but the fact is China is directly exposed by what's happening now in West Asia.
21:49You're the world's largest crude oil importer.
21:51China is the world's largest crude oil importer.
21:5545 to 50 percent of its crude oil imports,
21:57roughly 30 percent of its LNG transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.
22:02So this is China now worried about its self-interest.
22:05Suddenly, China seems to be recognizing that its self-interest is involved
22:09if the Strait of Hormuz gets completely tangled in this war.
22:14Well, yes, it is true that China is one of the largest customers in there,
22:19but so are many other countries.
22:21Japan and Korea are completely dependent.
22:23The difference is that China has between 1.2 and 1.4 billion barrels of oil.
22:29Their deficit right now is hovering around 7 million barrels per day.
22:33That means that, you know, they have to look elsewhere for that.
22:36They have the means to do it, and they have the stockpiles.
22:40During the intermediate term, they have the largest production of solar and windmills.
22:45They have 20 nuclear power plants online,
22:47and they're going forward with the electrification of dams, etc.,
22:53that will provide alternate energy.
22:56Now, there's still the issue of feedstock.
22:58Forty percent of the world's oil is not used for energy.
23:02It's used in everything from plastics to materials to medicines, even cosmetics.
23:09So it is an issue, but it's not an issue of China alone.
23:13And this idea that somehow China is only reacting because its interests are there,
23:17it's actually a better position than most countries,
23:20but China wants to see a global peace.
23:23They do better.
23:25China has to import a lot of resources, and they have to export a lot of value added.
23:30No, I take your point that it's a global issue, Aina,
23:34but the fact is, as I repeated, China has a special relationship with Tehran.
23:39Now, we just don't know how deep it is.
23:40Is it strategic?
23:41Yes, but your speculation is pointless.
23:44The fact is that China perhaps is seeing an opportunity to play a greater global role.
23:49Well, you might see that from your own perspective.
23:52Generally, when people say things like that,
23:54it really reveals more about their own thinking than the thinking of others.
23:58In China's case, they do have a relationship with Iran.
24:02Why?
24:02Because the U.S. cut Iran off in terms of what China was actually getting from.
24:08It was about 1.2 to 1.5 million barrels a day.
24:11To give you an idea, a large supermax VLC oil carrier can carry 2 million barrels in one day.
24:20So this idea that it was dependent is nonsense.
24:23Yes, 90% of what of the oil that Iran was selling was selling to China simply because they could.
24:31There was a separate banking system that was set up.
24:34And, you know, India is now receiving oil from Iran.
24:37So it's not this idea that there's some sort of insidious plot that China is propping up Iran
24:44when it was simply doing trade with them and not putting its ideological blinders on.
24:49I think that's a mischaracterization.
24:52So in conclusion, I want to understand from you, Aina,
24:55do you believe that the Chinese will be in the next few days, therefore,
25:00out there far more open pushing for a negotiated settlement?
25:04We've seen Pakistan do that in the last few days.
25:07There was a summit, of course, held in Islamabad.
25:10Do you see China being more proactive out there,
25:14even ready to perhaps put itself out in trying to get the two sides to work together?
25:20Do you see that happening or not, particularly ahead of the likely Trump visit to Beijing?
25:26No, I don't see them changing the role that they are currently playing,
25:30which is encouraging groups of countries to come together.
25:33The real issue is what is India doing?
25:35I mean, it would be nice if India could put aside the enmity with Pakistan and join in,
25:41because India is going to be hurt by this also.
25:43Not just India, the entire globe.
25:46It's time to come together and put an end to the bullying of the United States.
25:50I mean, you, India, of all places, understand, you know, 50 percent tariffs,
25:55color revolutions on your borders.
25:57You know, the kind of words and disrespect that Donald Trump has shown to India,
26:02interfering in the elections.
26:04I mean, these are all things that show that the United States is not run by somebody responsible.
26:09On the other hand, you have Iran.
26:11They are intent on getting revenge.
26:13I can understand why.
26:15If you wiped out somebody killed Modi and also, you know, a lot of the gurus
26:20and the top level of government, there would be outrage.
26:24There would be a desire for revenge.
26:26But their desire is hurting the rest of the world.
26:29So there has to be adults in the room and they have to be collective.
26:33And India is a natural leader of the global south.
26:37It should be stepping up, not asking what others are doing.
26:40OK, let me leave it there, Aina.
26:43Always good to talk to you and get your perspectives.
26:45Thanks very much for joining me on the show.
26:47I want to go from there to Professor Brahma Chalani.
26:50Brahma, you were hearing Aina Tangan carefully.
26:52He seems to suggest that don't see any conspiracy theories at all in the role that China is playing.
26:58He says China is worried about the global economy,
27:01not just its own narrow self-interest when it reaches out to both sides.
27:05How do you see it?
27:07China wants Iran to remain a viable regional counterweight to U.S. influence.
27:14In the Persian Gulf region, most states, all the Gulf Arab states, are U.S. allies.
27:23Each Gulf Arab state hosts U.S. military bases.
27:27So Iran, for China, is the regional counterweight to American influence.
27:35And we can see why China is seeking to provide quietly some assistance to Iran,
27:45including electronic warfare support, intelligence sharing with Iran,
27:51missile and drone components being transferred and some other defensive arms transfers have happened.
27:57But most importantly...
27:58So you're convinced that those intelligence reports that China is providing possibly intelligence
28:05as well as missile technology to Iran are probably true or shoulder missiles?
28:10That is so.
28:11It appears so.
28:12Because China is denying it.
28:13Beijing is denying it, Brahma.
28:14Of course.
28:15Beijing will not admit such transfers.
28:18The most important thing is not what weapon-related transfers it's making to Iran.
28:25It's the diplomatic shielding of Iran.
28:29Beijing uses its seat on the UN Security Council, its UN veto, to shield Tehran.
28:38Most recently, it, along with Russia, vetoed the Western-sponsored or Western-supported resolution
28:47demanding that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
28:50Now, that political protection of Iran matters even more, because Iran is isolated, and Iran
28:59counts on both Beijing and Moscow to provide it political support.
29:05But I think in the larger scheme of things, we should not forget the most important thing.
29:11If there is one clear geopolitical beneficiary of Trump's Iran war, it is China.
29:19This is a repeat of how China emerged as the only winner from the U.S.-Russia proxy war in
29:26Ukraine.
29:27For the second time in four years, Washington has helped China emerge as the clear winner
29:38from American involvement in conflict.
29:41Today...
29:42Possibly China and Russia.
29:43Possibly China and Russia.
29:44Because Russia also has, in some ways, benefited particularly from oil exports in a very, very large
29:54measure in the last month.
29:56Yes.
29:57That's only in the energy revenue domain.
30:03I'm talking about the larger geopolitical beneficiaries.
30:06Right.
30:07There's only been one, China.
30:08China.
30:09Today, with the U.S. deeply entangled in Middle Eastern conflict yet again, China has gained
30:15greater space for its expansionism in the Indo-Pacific, especially against Taiwan.
30:19The U.S. has had to divert American military resources and logistical capacity away from the
30:25Taiwan Strait and Asia, undercutting Washington's ability to maintain credible deterrence against
30:30China.
30:31And this conflict in the Middle East doesn't appear to be ending, given the fact that Trump
30:39has now started a blockade of Iran.
30:42And as for energy, Trump's Iran conflict has administered a major shock to India, Japan,
30:49and South Korea.
30:50Along with China, these economies are the top importers of Gulf energy.
30:54But here's the difference.
30:55While China has accelerated its pivot toward overland pipelines from Russia and Central
31:01Asia, India, Japan, and South Korea remain structurally exposed.
31:06None of them can import energy via overland pipelines.
31:10In other words, India, Japan, and South Korea have no viable alternative to vulnerable sea
31:16lanes.
31:17And even in terms of Trump's imposition of a blockade on Iran, the key question is this.
31:24Will the U.S. military dare to stop Chinese-flagged tankers?
31:31So in conclusion, 30 seconds, do you believe, therefore, just like Pakistan has pushed itself
31:37into the room in a way, into the negotiating table, that China is playing a more proactive role
31:43now?
31:43India will also have to play some role in the coming weeks.
31:47A quick answer.
31:49Well, first, Pakistan played whatever role it played because Washington leaned on Islamabad
31:56to host the U.S.-Iran talks, the highest level talks between U.S. and Iran in half a century.
32:03China is playing both sides in this conflict.
32:10India's position has always been more principled.
32:13And India needs to now activate its diplomacy.
32:19Okay.
32:20I'm going to leave it there, Brahma.
32:22I think you've sent out a strong message.
32:24It's very interesting to see how these chess pieces are playing out at the moment on what
32:30is a very complex board, particularly with Donald Trump in the White House at the moment.
32:36Brahma Chalani and earlier Aina Tangan for joining me.
32:39Thank you very much.
32:43Okay.
32:43Let's turn from there to a piece of breaking news that we are getting.
32:46The Narendra Modi government has finally circulated the three bills that are to be moved
32:51in a special session of parliament that's been called on Thursday that aims to increase
32:56Lok Sabha seats from 543 to 850, while also paving the way for reserving 33% of those seats,
33:06remember, for women.
33:07Sources now telling India today Congress and other opposition parties could vote against
33:12the bill because of the delimitation provisions, with Rahul Gandhi expected to speak in the
33:18Lok Sabha and Sunya Gandhi in the Rajya Sabha.
33:21Moshmi Singh now joining us.
33:22Moshmi, to pass this bill, the government will need a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha,
33:29which they don't have.
33:30Is it just the Congress which is going to oppose delimitation, raising of these seats without
33:35a clear formula?
33:37The southern chief ministers also seem to be raising their voices saying this will be
33:42biased against them.
33:43Will other opposition parties join in?
33:45Or is the government confident of passing this bill, using women's reservation as the
33:50bait?
33:52Rajdeep, it's a tightrope walk for the government because four opposition parties including the
33:57Congress, the SP, the DMK and the TMT hold the key.
34:02And as you've highlighted, the DMK is completely against the kind of delimitation exercise that
34:10the government is proposing, considering that the South Indian states will be heavily lose
34:17out as far as proportionality is concerned.
34:21But importantly, you know, there's a big opposition meeting that's coming up tomorrow, where the
34:27contours of the opposition are supposed to be defined.
34:31Even as we speak, we have learned that Congress is completely going to vote against the bill
34:38if things come true or not, because of the entire delimitation exercise, which is a nefarious
34:45plan of the Modi government to, in fact, get the delimitation into place without the census.
34:52Okay, interesting.
34:53The delimitation could become the political hot potato that could well perhaps derail the
34:59women's reservation plans at least for a while.
35:02But we'll have to wait and see what happens on Thursday.
35:05That could be a big stormy session of parliament that comes in a few days.
35:10Let's turn to our top political story though.
35:13Nitish Raj, India's longest serving chief minister of a Hindi heartland state, finally resigned
35:20today.
35:20And Bihar has seen the rise of a new Samrat to replace Nitish Raj.
35:25Samrat Chaudhary was elected today leader of the BJP Legislative Party in Bihar, paving
35:30the way for the party's first ever chief minister of Bihar.
35:35He will take his oath tomorrow.
35:37Samrat Chaudhary, remember, comes from a deep-rooted political lineage.
35:40His father, Shakuni Chaudhary, was also a MLA and a minister.
35:47And Samrat Chaudhary has served as a minister in the Rabri Devi-led RJD government as well
35:52as was part of the JDU.
35:54Listen in to what the new chief minister had to say.
36:20As the Nitish Kumar era draws to a close there in Bihar, joining me now is former Rajya Sabha,
36:27MP, someone very close to Nitish Kumar at one time.
36:30Bhavan Verma, author, joins me.
36:32Appreciate Mr. Verma, you joining us.
36:34Nitish Kumar finally resigning as Bihar chief minister for two decades.
36:39He's dominated the state's politics.
36:41He's been the longest serving chief minister of a Hindi heartland.
36:44How will you assess Nitish Kumar's legacy?
36:47Is this the end of an era in a way?
36:53Without a doubt, Rajji, thank you so much for having me.
36:58Without a doubt, it's the end of an era.
37:01And with that, we will now see a BJP-dominated state.
37:07The transition has been smooth.
37:10There has been no fight back from the JDU.
37:12Its top leaders have been co-opted.
37:14And Mr. Nitish Kumar's failing health was such that in any case,
37:20his move to the centre as Rajya Sabha MP was anticipated or some other role.
37:26But he could not have continued as chief minister of Bihar.
37:30So the BJP's long awaited dream of having its own chief minister in Bihar has been achieved.
37:37The two deputy chief ministers are from the JDU.
37:40And there's a, I think, a balanced caste equation been built in the three people who are there now.
37:49And the rest of the cabinet will be chosen.
37:52There's no fight back as such from the opposition expected,
37:55because more or less it has shrunk to being irrelevant.
37:59You know, let's look at what you've just said.
38:01We'll come to, you seem to suggest that this is not just the end of the Nitishira,
38:06but the end of the JDU in some form.
38:08You seem to believe that the JDU has now been co-opted or in some way taken over by the
38:13BJP.
38:14And therefore, Samrat Chaudhary and the BJP will now dominate.
38:18And the JDU will be very much the second fiddle in this government.
38:26Certainly, I see this at the moment.
38:29After 37 years, Rajdeep, for the first time a chief minister has been appointed from Delhi.
38:37Since 1989, when the last such chief minister was Jagannath Mishra appointed from Delhi,
38:43the chief ministers and deputy chief ministers have been elected by the local leaders in Bihar.
38:49That era is over.
38:51Nitish Kumar has gone.
38:52Ram Velas Paswan has gone.
38:54Lalu Yadav is unwell.
38:57So now, for the first time, we have a BJP chosen leader, which is also numerically the largest party.
39:05The JDU with 84 MLS could have fought back and asked for a separate identity.
39:11But it hasn't done so because, as I said, it's a process of co-option.
39:15And they don't see right now any opportunity for them to be in any way a pole in Bihar politics
39:22without the BJP.
39:23And the BJP knows this.
39:24So, as I said, several goals have been achieved in one go.
39:29The Mandal era is over.
39:32And we now have the gradual transition to what can be called the Kamandal era.
39:37You have a BJP chief minister.
39:38Kamandal with an OBC face.
39:40You know, to be fair, Kamandal with an OBC face.
39:44I mean, the fact is that the BJP has also tried to OBC-ize itself in Bihar,
39:49tried to Mandalize itself, co-opted Mandal forces.
39:52But I come back to where I started, Nitish Kumar's legacy.
39:55Will history judge him kindly as Sushasana Babu?
39:59Or will they see him as Palturam?
40:05Well, it will have to be a combination of both.
40:08But now that he's gone, there is a sense of nostalgia about the Nitish era.
40:12When he was at his peak, and I happened to have the good fortune of working closely with him,
40:18he did make remarkable changes in Bihar after the 15 years of the Lalu Yadav rule.
40:24And he will be remembered for that.
40:25In fact, he created the extremely backward caste category.
40:30And today, strangely, from his own caste, the Khoiri Kurmi, you have Samrat Chaudhary,
40:37and now as the chief minister.
40:41So that Kurmi politics will continue.
40:45In JDU, you have a Yadav in Rijindar Yadav, you have an upper caste in Vijay Chaudhary.
40:50So essentially, and Sanjay Jha and Laland Singh had been co-opted, as per what I know, much earlier.
40:57So the JDU as such does not exist earlier.
41:00Now the Nitish era will be remembered for a time when Bihar had its own voice with a towering leader.
41:09And Nitish Kumar's voice could not have been ignored.
41:13But there has been a decline in the last few years because of his frequent political flip-flops,
41:21and most lately by his declining health.
41:23So it's been a gradual translation.
41:25It was a low-hanging fruit to be picked up.
41:28The BJP has done that.
41:29You know, so therefore in conclusion, do we see how, how, what do you see as someone close to Nitish
41:37Kumar?
41:38What was his biggest strength?
41:39And what do you see ended up being his biggest weakness?
41:43What was, what is it that made him this longest serving chief minister,
41:47which in itself is quite remarkable in a state like Bihar?
41:53So I'll answer it quickly.
41:56I mean, his greatest strength was, to begin with, his administrative acumen.
42:01I've been personally witness to that.
42:04His personal rectitude.
42:06His completely being transcendent of Parivarwad politics.
42:12And for the foundational changes that he brought about, if not in full measure, but substantially,
42:19post the Lalu Yadav misrule.
42:22He will be remembered for that.
42:23And for having created in Bihar a credible voice for those of the lower caste.
42:30He will be remembered for that.
42:32And there will be a nostalgia.
42:34Yeah.
42:34But, at the same time, I think later, agar kursi kaatle to fir koi ilaj ne, that kind of scenario
42:43happened with him,
42:44because he made ideological flip-flops so often that his credibility did suffer.
42:49And with that also his political decline began.
42:54And then his health began to fail him.
42:56So it was a combination of factors.
42:58But one thing I can say to you, that the Nitish era is over now.
43:06Pavan Verma, for putting that in some perspective, particularly that important point you made since 1989,
43:13for the first time, Bihar will have a chief minister who's appointed from Delhi and not from Bihar itself,
43:20signals just how Indian politics has changed.
43:23The BJP now has its 16th chief minister in the country in Samrat Chaudhry.
43:30Thank you very much, Pavan Verma, for joining me here on the show tonight.
43:38Okay, let's turn to our big election story from the campaign trail.
43:42Remember, 10 days to go for the big West Bengal polls.
43:45A political storm has erupted.
43:47The enforcement directorate's arrest of an IPAC co-founder,
43:51the political consultancy in a coal-linked money laundering probe,
43:56alleging cross-rooted through shell firms, has sparked off a political war.
44:01While the BJP calls it an action on corruption,
44:03the TMC says the timing smacks of vendetta
44:07and another attempt by the BJP to misuse the enforcement directorate.
44:13India Today reports on that battle.
44:2110 days before West Bengal assembly elections comes a political earthquake.
44:31The enforcement directorate strikes at the nerve center of TMC's election strategy,
44:36arresting Indian Political Action Committee or IPAC co-founder Vinny Stundale
44:40in an alleged money laundering probe linked to a coal scam.
44:45Now, according to the ED, nearly 50 crore rupees, alleged proceeds of the crime,
44:49were routed through Havala channels and layered via shell entities.
44:53Investigators alleged 13.5 crore rupees was parked in IPAC's books
44:57used as unsecured, interest-free loans from a non-backing entity
45:01with no agreements or no real services.
45:05The charge, IPAC acted as a conduit.
45:09Now, this isn't the first time the ED is cracking down on IPAC.
45:13In January, the ED had raided IPAC offices and the Kolkata residents
45:17of its co-founder Prateek Jain.
45:19That operation spiraled into a flashpoint,
45:21with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee herself arriving at the scene,
45:25alleging seizure of sensitive election material belonging to her party.
45:29Now, with another IPAC co-founder Chandel in 10-day custody,
45:34the timing is explosive.
45:35The BJP is calling the arrest long overdue.
45:51The General Congress is crying foul, calling it Vendetta.
45:55The General Congress is crying foul, calling it Vendetta.
46:08As ED, now they have renamed themselves, extremely desperate.
46:1610 days before polling is not law enforcement.
46:23It is electoral sabotage.
46:28As Bengal heads into polling on 23rd and 29th of April,
46:31this is no longer just a pro.
46:34It's a full-blown political showdown,
46:36where poll consultants, investigative agencies,
46:39and electoral stakes have collided at the highest level.
46:43And the big question now is,
46:44is this a crackdown on corruption or political vendetta?
46:48We have a report, India Today.
46:52Tonight's special report, and that report comes from Maharashtra,
46:55where the case of PCS, TADA Consultancy Services in Nashik,
47:00is getting murkier by the day.
47:01The Maharashtra police have arrested six TCS employees
47:04for allegedly harassing them,
47:07pressurizing some of them to adopt religious practices of Islam.
47:11Amidst those charges of coercion and sexual harassment,
47:14the police claim nine people, including eight women,
47:17were victims of the alleged racket.
47:19They claim three more victims have been tracked.
47:22A special investigation now has been set up to probe the case.
47:26Take a look.
47:32The largest IT services company in India,
47:36the flagship of the indubitable Tata Group,
47:40known for its ethical, responsible standards.
47:44But a very different story unfolded around Tata Consultancy Services, TCS.
47:51On the 9th of April, six accused, many of them TCS team leaders and engineers,
47:59were arrested by Maharashtra police in Nashik,
48:03after multiple women employees of the company alleged sexual harassment
48:07and attempts at religious conversion at the workplace by the team leaders.
48:14The police have formed a 12-member SIT under an ACP rank officer.
48:20In Nashik City, a multi-national company had to have worked with a military company.
48:24The police had to be arrested by mental torture, sexual torture,
48:28and religious violence.
48:31The police had to be arrested by nine people,
48:33and the police were arrested by six people.
48:37Those arrested include Asif Ansari, Shafi Sheik, Shahrukh Gureshi, Raza Meman and Tawseef
48:46Attar.
48:46Another employee, Ashwini Chainani, the operations head and also part of the company's anti-harassment
48:53Posh Panel was also arrested.
48:55Reports say the police is also on the hunt for another HR executive.
49:01In the FIRs, the allegations are that TCS employees molested the women and tried to convert
49:06them.
49:07There are also allegations of sexual exploitation and mental harassment.
49:11Eight women, all aged between 18 and 25, have alleged physical harassment at different work
49:18locations.
49:19They say they were subjected to comments about their physique and clothing and also faced
49:25remarks which hurt their religious sentiments.
49:27A male employee was also allegedly brainwashed and pressured to convert and forced to perform
49:34religious rituals and consume non-vegetarian food.
49:37Shockingly, the alleged incidents are said to have taken place over a period of two to
49:42three years, beginning around 2022.
49:45Victims allege they approached the company's HR earlier but no action was taken.
49:52In this case, the PIDP went to the operation manager's office and the POS committee's office has
50:06also provided a statement.
50:21Police have uncovered that there was a close-knit WhatsApp group in which the accused team leaders
50:27and HR professional Nida Khan were part of that group. They were discussed targeting victims
50:34on this group and further discussions were happening on whom to be targeted.
50:42There was no comment or clarification from the company till its chairman N. Chandrasekharan
50:47issued a statement on Monday, terming the complaints and allegations gravely concerning
50:53and anguishing. The company promised full cooperation in the investigations and emphasised
50:58that the Tata group maintains a zero-tolerance policy towards any form of coercion or misconduct
51:04by its employees. The statement said, appropriate and stringent action will be taken against
51:09those found guilty and necessary processes, improvements or corrective measures will be
51:16implemented and enforced. The company's president and chief operating officer, Aarthi Subramanian,
51:23has been tasked with heading the internal probe.
51:35What does this case say about what happens in certain major corporates, particularly
51:39when it comes to the prevention of sexual harassment or posh provisions? Why did it require an undercover
51:46police operation for this to be exposed? Lots of unanswered questions. We hope to keep
51:52tracking that story. I want to leave you tonight with tragic news. Unfortunately, our defining image
51:58of the day, at least 10 workers have died. Over 30 others have been injured after a major explosion
52:04at a Vedanta power plant in Chhattisgarh. Several of them are in critical condition following one of
52:10the state's worst industrial accidents. In recent times, it took place in Sakti district around 2.30pm
52:16when the workers were on their lunch break, triggering panic and a large-scale emergency response.
52:21According to preliminary findings, the incident was triggered by the bursting of a pipeline
52:26carrying hot water, leading to several burn injuries among workers at this side. Our thoughts
52:32and prayers are with those workers, the victims and their families. We leave you with that image
52:39of the day. A reminder that you stay well, stay safe. Good night, Shubratri. Jayin. Namaskar.
52:46That was the news without the noise.
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