00:00So what is the China factor exactly that could now influence the West Asia war?
00:06All eyes are on Beijing. Joining me now, two special guests, Aina Tangan, international
00:12commentator on geopolitics based in Beijing, and Brahma Chadani, leading strategic affairs
00:18expert here in New Delhi. Appreciate both of you joining us. I want to come to you first,
00:22Aina, because what we are seeing in the last few days is China playing a more proactive
00:28role, possibly as a mediator in the West Asia crisis. Is that what China wants to do when
00:34we see the Chinese president talking to the crown prince of UAE, when we hear of the Russian
00:41foreign minister now in Beijing? Is China playing a big role behind the scenes to persuade Tehran
00:47in particular to agree to some kind of a negotiated settlement? I don't think it's quite
00:54that simple, but also Spain and Vietnam have been here in the last couple of days. So what
01:00China is doing is they're trying to rebuild the table of trust. You can't sit across and
01:05negotiate with somebody you just do not trust. And the United States, from Iran's point of
01:10view, is not trustworthy. They were attacked twice while they were sitting at the peace
01:15conference, at the conference table. And they don't really believe that anything the U.S.
01:19does. So if they're going to sit down and start trying to figure out what happens next, there
01:25has to be some basis to get them together. And there has to be a different formula for doing
01:31that. Now, you know, China, like India, is a civilization state. It's not like these conquering
01:38entities that Europe and America, where it was when you were making peace, it was simply taking
01:45a peace from somebody else. What they really want to see is a consensus, cooperation and
01:52trust. And that's going to require not just China, not just India, but the whole of the
01:58BRICS, South America, Africa, Central Asia. You're saying that there could be a wider BRICS attempt,
02:09including Russia, including India, to achieve South Africa, to achieve a negotiated settlement.
02:14But I want to understand from you, isn't it true that China has a very special relationship
02:18with Tehran? There have already been news reports just in the last week, New York Times, CNN reporting,
02:25China was preparing to ship new air defense systems to Iran, based on U.S. intelligence reports.
02:31Is there a deeper relationship that China has with Tehran, which is now slowly coming out?
02:36Is China backing Iran in some way behind the scenes here?
02:41No, I mean, the intelligence reports have been refuted by Beijing. They say they do sell dual-use
02:49equipment to Iran, as well as the United States and everybody else. At this point, they are not
02:56waging in in terms of backing any candidate. They actually have somewhat of a relationship with all
03:04the parties. Donald Trump is refutedly coming to Beijing. That invitation has not been withdrawn.
03:11This idea that somehow China is trying to move the chessboard around when it's simply trying to
03:16have a chessboard that the players can be on is the issue here. And right now, there's a lot of
03:23people saying, well, China should solve what the problem that America has created, where China is
03:29really concerned, is about the global situation. When I say the BRICS, I don't mean that there's a
03:35formal plan in place to bring them in. I'm just saying that if the BRICS, EU, and the rest of
03:42the
03:42world were to go to both of these countries, Iran and the United States, and say, knock it off,
03:49or we will stop trading with you, I think that would be the only way you could bring them to
03:54the
03:54peace table, because then they know that there is going to be an equal voice.
03:59You know, you're saying China is worried about the global interest in ending this war early. But the
04:04fact is, China is directly exposed by what's happening now in West Asia. You're the world's
04:09largest crude oil importer. China is the world's largest crude oil importer. 45 to 50 percent of its
04:16crude oil imports, roughly 30 percent of its LNG, transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. So this is
04:22China now worried about its self-interest. Suddenly, China seems to be recognizing that its self-interest
04:28is involved if the Strait of Hormuz gets completely tangled in this war.
04:34Well, yes, it is true that China is one of the largest customers in there, but so are many other
04:40countries. Japan and Korea are completely dependent. The difference is that China has between 1.2 and 1.4
04:47billion barrels of oil. Their deficit right now is hovering around 7 million barrels per day. That
04:53means that, you know, they have to look elsewhere for that. They have the means to do it, and they
04:58have the stockpiles. During the intermediate term, they have the largest production of solar and
05:04windmills. They have 20 nuclear power plants online, and they're going forward with the electrification
05:10of dams, et cetera, that will provide alternate energy. Now, there's still the issue of feedstock.
05:18Forty percent of the world's oil is not used for energy. It's used in everything from plastics to
05:24materials to medicines, even cosmetics. So it is an issue, but it's not an issue of China alone.
05:33And this idea that somehow China is only reacting because its interest there, it's actually better
05:38position than most countries, but China wants to see a global peace. They do better. They have to,
05:45you know, China has to import a lot of resources, and they have to export a lot of value added.
05:50No, I take your point that it's a global issue, Aina, but the fact is, as I repeated,
05:56China has a special relationship with Tehran. Now, we just don't know how deep it is.
06:00Is it strategic? Yes, but your speculation is pointless. The fact is that China perhaps is
06:05seeing an opportunity to play a greater global role. Well, you might see that from your own
06:11perspective. Generally, when people say things like that, it really reveals more about their
06:16own thinking than the thinking of others. In China's case, they do have a relationship with
06:21Iran. Why? Because the US cut Iran off. In terms of what China was actually getting from, it was about
06:281.2 to 1.5 million barrels a day. To give you an idea, a large supermax VLC oil carrier
06:36can carry
06:372 million barrels in one day. So this idea that it was dependent is nonsense. Yes, 90% of what
06:45of the
06:45oil that Iran was selling was selling to China simply because they could. There was a separate
06:52banking system that was set up. And, you know, India is now receiving oil from Iran. So it's not
06:59this idea that there's some sort of insidious plot that China is propping up Iran when it was simply
07:05doing trade with them and not putting its ideological blinders on. I think that's a mischaracterization.
07:11So in conclusion, I want to understand from you, Aina, do you believe that the Chinese will be
07:17in the next few days, therefore, out there far more open pushing for a negotiated settlement? We've seen
07:24Pakistan do that in the last few days. There was a summit, of course, held in Islamabad. Do you see
07:30China being more proactive out there, even ready to perhaps put itself out in trying to get the two
07:39sides to work together? Do you see that happening or not, particularly ahead of the likely Trump visit
07:44to Beijing?
07:45No, I don't see them changing the role that they are currently playing, which is encouraging
07:51groups of countries to come together. The real issue is what is India doing? I mean, it would be
07:56nice if India could put aside the enmity with Pakistan and join in because India is going to be hurt
08:02by this also, not just India, the entire globe. It's time to come together and put an end to the
08:09bullying of the United States. I mean, India, of all places, understand 50% tariffs, color revolutions
08:16on your borders, the kind of words and disrespect that Donald Trump has shown to India, interfering in
08:23the elections. I mean, these are all things that show that the United States is not run by somebody
08:28responsible. On the other hand, you have Iran. They are intent on getting revenge. I can understand
08:34why. If you wiped out, somebody killed Modi and also a lot of the gurus and the top level of
08:42government, there would be outrage. There would be a desire for revenge, but their desire is hurting
08:47the rest of the world. So there has to be adults in the room and they have to be collective.
08:53And India
08:53is a natural leader of the global South. It should be stepping up, not asking what others are doing.
09:00Okay. Let me leave it there, Aina. Always good to talk to you and get your perspectives. Thanks very
09:05much for joining me on the show. I want to go from there to Professor Brahma Chalani. Brahma,
09:10you were hearing Aina Tangan carefully. He seems to suggest that don't see any conspiracy theories at all
09:16in the role that China is playing. He says China is worried about the global economy, not just its own
09:22narrow self-interest when it reaches out to both sides. How do you see it?
09:27China wants Iran to remain a viable regional counterweight to U.S. influence. In the Persian
09:35Gulf region, most states, all the Gulf Arab states, are U.S. allies. Each Gulf Arab state hosts U.S.
09:46military bases. So Iran, for China, is the regional counterweight to American influence. And we can
09:56see why China is seeking to provide quietly some assistance to Iran, including electronic warfare
10:07support, intelligence sharing with Iran, missile and drone components being transferred, and some
10:15other defensive arms transfers have happened. But most importantly... So you're convinced that those
10:20intelligence reports that China is providing possibly intelligence as well as missile technology to
10:27Iran are probably true? Or shoulder missiles? It appears so. Because China is denying it. Beijing is denying it,
10:34Brahma. Of course. Beijing will not admit such transfers. The most important thing is not
10:40what weapon-related transfers it's making to Iran. It's the diplomatic shielding of Iran.
10:49Beijing uses its seat on the UN Security Council, its UN veto, to shield Tehran. Most recently it,
11:00along with Russia, vetoed the Western-sponsored or Western-supported resolution,
11:07demanding that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Now, that political protection of Iran matters even more,
11:16because Iran is isolated, and Iran counts on both Beijing and Moscow to provide it political support.
11:25But I think in the larger scheme of things we should not forget the most important thing.
11:30If there is one clear geopolitical beneficiary of Trump's Iran war, it is China. This is a repeat
11:40of how China emerged as the only winner from the U.S.-Russia proxy war in Ukraine. For the second time
11:48in four years, Washington has helped China emerge as the clear winner from American involvement in conflict.
12:01Possibly China and Russia. Possibly China and Russia. Because Russia also has in some ways benefited
12:08particularly from oil exports in a very, very large measure in the last month.
12:16Yes. That's only in the energy revenue domain. I'm talking about the larger geopolitical
12:25beneficiary. There's only been one, China. Today, with the U.S. deeply entangled in Middle Eastern
12:32conflict yet again, China has gained greater space for its expansionism in the Indo-Pacific,
12:38especially against Taiwan. The U.S. has had to divert American military resources and logistical
12:43capacity away from the Taiwan Strait and Asia, undercutting Washington's ability to maintain
12:49credible deterrence against China. And this conflict in the Middle East doesn't appear to be ending,
12:56given the fact that Trump has now started a blockade of Iran. And as for energy, Trump's Iran
13:05conflict has administered a major shock to India, Japan, and South Korea. Along with China,
13:11China, these economies are the top importers of Gulf energy. But here is the difference.
13:15While China has accelerated its pivot toward overlying pipelines from Russia and Central Asia,
13:22India, Japan, and South Korea remain structurally exposed. None of them can import energy via
13:28overlying pipelines. In other words, India, Japan, and South Korea have no viable alternative to
13:36vulnerable sea lanes. And even in terms of Trump's imposition of a blockade on Iran,
13:41right? The key question is this. Will the U.S. military dare to stop Chinese-flagged tankers?
13:51So, in conclusion, 30 seconds, do you believe, therefore, just like Pakistan has pushed itself
13:57into the room in a way, into the negotiating table, that China is playing a more proactive role now,
14:03India will also have to play some role in the coming weeks? A quick answer.
14:08Well, first, Pakistan played whatever role it played because Washington leaned on Islamabad
14:17to host the U.S.-Iran talks, the highest-level talks between U.S. and Iran in half a century.
14:24China is playing both sides in this conflict. India's position has always been more principled,
14:32and India needs to now activate its diplomacy.
14:39Okay. I'm going to leave it there, Brahma. I think you've sent out a strong message. It's very
14:44interesting to see how these chess pieces are playing out at the moment on what is a very complex board,
14:52particularly with Donald Trump in the White House at the moment.
14:56Brahma Chalani and Ali Aayna Tangan for joining me. Thank you very much.
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