- 19 minutes ago
Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, analyses the US-India relationship, describing it as facing its "worst crisis" in decades under a potential second Donald Trump administration.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00The world is going through a churn. There's chaos. Old relationships are strained. New
00:12relationships are emerging. But in midst of all of this, there's one relationship that stood
00:17the test of time. Yes, there have been ups and downs, but more ups than downs. And we're talking
00:23about the India-Russia strategic partnership. And how is this relationship and the recent
00:30visit of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to India being viewed across the Atlantic?
00:37With me from the Atlantic Council is Michael Kugelman, someone who keeps a hawk eye on
00:42developments in this region. Michael, welcome on the Chakraview podcast.
00:47Thank you. It's great to be here with you.
00:48How is the U.S. viewing President Putin's visit to India? And what emerged from it? The key
00:56takeaways, according to you, Michael. Yeah. So we all remember what happened when
01:00Prime Minister Modi went to China some months ago to meet with President Xi and President Putin.
01:05And President Trump reacted very negatively on social media. So, yeah, I think that there was
01:09an expectation that he would react negatively to this visit. So far, he's been fairly quiet,
01:14so far as I know. But I'd say this. There's a way that the U.S. could have responded and a way that
01:19it likely will. In terms of how it could have responded, let's remember, I mean, as you well
01:24know, that Prime Minister Modi and President Trump feel the same way about the war in Ukraine. They
01:28want it to end. That's the major objective. So at a moment when President Trump has been really
01:33pushing Russia hard to sign on to this peace process plan, he could have seen this as an opportunity
01:38for Prime Minister Modi to deliver a message to President Putin that would be useful for Washington,
01:43because we know that the Prime Minister expressed the fact that we need to look to diplomacy and
01:49dialogue to end the war. So it could have been seen as a good thing. But I do think that in
01:55Washington, the view is likely, well, here's another case of India inviting Putin to New Delhi and taking
02:05advantage of this visit to bolster Putin, to bolster the relationship, to strengthen the partnership,
02:11to look to furthering cooperation with Russia at a moment when the Trump administration is really
02:16pressuring Russia hard, including trying to get its top commercial partners to do less business
02:21with it. So I suspect the reaction was not positive. But how is it that the West is very critical of
02:28President Putin visiting India, but very appreciative of President Putin visiting Alaska,
02:34or President Putin going to Tianjin? Doesn't this smack of Western hypocrisy?
02:39Yeah, no, it is. I mean, it's double standards and hypocrisy for sure. But you know, this is just
02:44this is just how it is, unfortunately, right? And, you know, I think that it's the the optics and the
02:50imagery that goes with this, right? The fact that, you know, these two leaders, Modi and Putin, they like
02:54to hug, right? So we knew that there was going to be that bear hug. You know, I think it's that type of
02:58thing that doesn't go over well. And you know, the the fact that this is a, you know, we could talk about
03:03this is a bit of a of a challenging moment for the India-Russia relationship. But clearly, the objective
03:08of both sides, and you know, including Prime Minister Modi is to take steps to ensure that the relationship
03:14remains strong. And, you know, President Trump does not take a hostile view toward Russia, particularly
03:20compared to Joe Biden, right? And he's expressed his admiration for President Putin in the past. But it's the fact
03:26that you have a war going on, and the fact that right now, Trump really wants Putin to buy into
03:31this peace process plan. I think it's the timing, and also the, you know, the optics. I think that's
03:36what is why you would have the negative reaction in Washington. But you know, if I stay on the subject
03:42of the Western hypocrisy, President Putin in that exclusive interview, that global exclusive interview
03:47to India Today, he exposed the American hypocrisy, where he said, America is putting pressure on
03:53additional tariffs on India not to buy Russian oil. America continues to buy uranium fertilizers,
03:59and its trade worth billions of dollars every year between America and Russia and Europe and Russia.
04:07Yeah, I mean, first of all, I am not one to, to give President Putin the benefit of the doubt when it
04:13comes to credibility, my apologies. But what he said is not wrong. You know, it's true that, you know,
04:19if you look at the European countries too, right? I mean, until fairly recently, many of them were
04:23continuing to import Russian energy, right? And you could also expand this critique to get to the
04:30fact that India was punished so much by the Trump administration for importing oil from Russia when
04:35China has been importing more. But what I would say on that, well, two things. One, India has
04:41dramatically expanded its oil imports from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. I mean, the data
04:45points to that. And I, that's, so the administration is right on that. The other issue here, and this
04:50gets to how the U.S. looks at China, which maybe we'll discuss separately. Yeah, I think the Trump
04:54administration really, he respects how much leverage China has over the global economy. And I think that
05:01he would not want to take steps that could risk Chinese retaliations against the U.S. that could
05:06imperil U.S. economic interests. So I think that's how you can explain the hypocrisy on the issue of
05:11why is India getting singled out with all, with 25% tariffs for its Russian oil imports when China
05:16doesn't get hit quite as hard. But yeah, you know, as, as, as, as President Putin said, as many others
05:21have said, yeah, I mean, there is hypocrisy. There are double standards from the U.S. and the West,
05:25but some of this has to be qualified. Yep. Yeah. And is this visit a pushback against that hypocrisy?
05:33You know, that, that warm hug or the two traveling in the same vehicle together. Is that telling the
05:39West, you may want to impose tariffs on India, or you may want to bully India, but in 2025,
05:46India will not get bullied. Is that message being sent across? Yeah. I mean, clearly there was a
05:51message of defiance that was meant to be directed at a very specific audience, that being Western
05:57governments, including the U.S. government for sure. But I think that it was also,
06:02that message of defiance is all the more important given the timing. I mean,
06:05just in the days preceding Putin's visit, India did reduce its oil imports from Russia after new
06:12U.S. sanctions on Russia went into effect. And so I think that, that India wanted to telegraph this
06:17very strong message to, to the West that was, yes, you know, the, you know, India is willing to,
06:22to do certain things, but at the end of the day, it continues to have this special relationship with
06:26Russia and it's fully committed to that. And I think that that was very clear. I mean,
06:30that, that message was very strongly sent during this visit.
06:33And Prime Minister Narendra Modi is saying that India is not neutral in this war. India is on the
06:39side of peace. He appreciated the recent efforts that are being undertaken. My assumption is he's
06:44talking about the U.S. special delegation at the Kremlin, the meeting that Steve Witkoff had with
06:50President Putin that lasted apparently five long hours. Again, in that interview to India Today,
06:54President Putin said five hours maybe was too long, but do you see something emerge from those,
07:01from those talks? What's the conversation like in America?
07:04Yeah. I mean, I certainly hope that they'll be able to move the needle forward because I think,
07:09I mean, obviously wars should not continue. This war, it's a terrible war. It needs to end.
07:13But I think that, you know, certainly India's interest, I think have been negatively impacted by
07:17the war for a number of reasons. One being Russia's closer relationship with China. But, you know, I
07:23think that it's going to be difficult. I'm not an expert on Russia. I'm certainly not going to try
07:28to get into Putin's head, just like I would never try to get into Trump's head. These are leaders
07:32that are very hard to figure. But, you know, I would be skeptical if we actually get to a point
07:39where the peace process begins. Of course, if the peace process does begin, then the U.S. will take
07:45the heat off of India, for sure. You know, we know that. I mean, the U.S.-India relationship
07:48would improve and by extension, the India-Russia relationship would improve as well.
07:52Oh, absolutely. Because I've covered this war in Ukraine. It's terrible, terrible. We've covered
07:57it from the Russian side too. Nobody would want, you know, more than the people there and us and the
08:03world that this war ends. But are the U.S. and Europe no longer on the same page? Is that the
08:10impression you get? Europe wants to continue fueling this war or arming Ukraine? And President
08:17Putin's made it very clear that Europe is fueling this war. If, you know, France is talking about
08:23100 more Rafales or 100 Rafales in the next 10 years for Ukraine or longer-range missiles that
08:29countries are talking about, though they're no longer getting these missiles, the Patriot missiles
08:33from America. But are U.S. and Europe not on the same page? Well, I mean, I think it's, there
08:39definitely have been some differences between the U.S. and its NATO partners in Europe. Part of that is
08:46the reflection of broader tensions between the U.S. and its NATO allies with the new Trump
08:50administration in power. So I think that sort of has affected this dynamic. But yeah, I mean, you look
08:55at the intensity with which European capitals have been criticizing Putin and the war. It has been,
09:03you know, of course, a controversial op-ed that was published recently that was by three different
09:09European ambassadors. And it took a very strong view, very critical view of Putin. And yet, you know,
09:16on the U.S. side, you know, I think the criticism continues. You know, I think that for President Trump,
09:21his anger with Putin is not necessarily because he invaded Ukraine, but more so because he's not
09:26buying into Trump's peace plan. So clearly, you know, the U.S. position is that it's time to stop
09:32fighting. I mean, Trump may change his mind. He may do that. But, you know, for the Europeans,
09:36this is a European war in a geographic sense, right? This war is on Europe's doorstep. You know,
09:41for the U.S., you have the luxury of geographic distancing. But it has significant bearing on NATO
09:49because this is on Europe's doorstep, but it's on NATO's doorstep. And the U.S., despite all its
09:53complaints about NATO and the Trump administration, it's still a NATO member. So ideally, the U.S. and
09:59its NATO partners would be seeing more eye to eye on this. Maybe if there's indications that this peace
10:03process will actually get off the ground, which I don't know if will happen, maybe that would make
10:07the Europeans come a bit closer to the U.S. position. Though President Putin, by all accounts,
10:13has made a couple of things very clear. He will keep the Donbass region, which is unacceptable to
10:20President Zelensky and to the European partners. And he does not want any foreign forces on Ukrainian
10:28soil. And he wants a cap on Ukrainian armed forces and their weapons and systems. So where is the
10:36meeting ground? Where is the common ground for that peace process to start? Or is that your
10:41apprehension that this will end up remaining an endless war? I mean, 2022, February till date,
10:48the war still continues? Yeah, right. Exactly. I would describe to your latter explanation that
10:53the initial conditions that President Putin have set to me seem very unrealistic from a Ukrainian
11:02perspective, from a European perspective. A lot of this depends on who is actually a party to the
11:07peace process. Yes, the Ukraine and Russia, the belligerents. But, you know, will the U.S. be at the
11:12table? Will Europe be at the table? That's going to figure in this as well. But no, I mean, I just,
11:17just the fact that, you know, the Russians don't seem at all interested in stopping. I mean, just when you
11:23start hearing talk about, you know, the possibility of a peace plan, you know, right after President
11:28Putin was here, I think attacks intensified again in Ukraine, right? Is that a message that's meant to be
11:33sense to try to, you know, position Russia strongly in potential talks? Maybe. But I also see that as pure
11:40belligerence as well. Is there also an apprehension that President Trump imposing the 25% additional
11:47tariffs on India, the hostility that we've seen in this creeping into this relationship, the proximity
11:55between U.S. and Pakistan, is all of that, and there are many commentators in the U.S. who seem to imply
12:01that America is pushing India closer into Russia and China's arms. You saw what happened in Tianjin
12:10and post-Tianjin. What's your reading? Well, you know, I think it's different cases if you talk about
12:16China and Russia. I mean, as you know, India has been looking to ease tensions with China for more
12:22than a year. I mean, this goes back to the border patrolling deal in October of last year, which was
12:26several months before Trump took office. It was several weeks before he was elected. So that's
12:30clearly a different thing, right? I mean, that was clearly an effort to try to ease tensions on the
12:35border, make the relationship more bearable so that India could focus on other issues.
12:39With Russia, it's different as well, because this is a special relationship. And so, you know,
12:44Modi didn't, or the Indian government didn't need anything to drive it into Russia's arms,
12:49right? It was already in Russia's arms. Maybe the embrace has become even stronger. But then again,
12:55given what's happened in recent weeks with India having to cut back on some of its oil imports,
13:01you know, maybe to an extent, the U.S. and the sanctions in Russia have actually,
13:06you know, brought India just a tiny bit away from Russia when it comes to the energy partnership.
13:11But, you know, the U.S.-India relationship is in a lot of trouble right now. I think we have to be
13:16very clear on that. We shouldn't sugarcoat this. It's in crisis, and it's probably the worst crisis
13:20it's faced in some decades. And, you know, we've all been used to this. I mean, you mentioned before
13:25the India-Russia relationship is one of the most stable relationships. You know, for the last
13:29decade, I'd say that from a U.S. perspective, the relationship with India was probably one of its
13:33best, most stable, most predictable bilateral relationships. And going back to, you know,
13:39the early, you know, the George W. Bush era, and then coming into Obama, Trump won when things
13:44were very good in that relationship, and then Biden. So, you know, it's like, where did things
13:49go wrong? I mean, we could talk about that all day. But, you know, I think that at the end of the
13:54day, it comes down to the fact that this administration takes such an aggressively
13:57transactional approach to foreign policy. And that means that you look at, right, the first thing
14:02you look at when you're dealing with a country is trade imbalance. You know, what does that look
14:07like? And the U.S.-India trade relationship was one with a trade imbalance that was not in the U.S.'s
14:12favor. And that put India in the crosshairs right away. There were so many ways to address it without
14:17killing a relationship. Absolutely. There were so many ways. India was anywhere looking at more
14:21energy imports from the U.S., looking at more defense hardware. You know, when we were covering
14:28the 1998 Pokhran tests and the sanctions that followed, which led to the entire Indian Navy's
14:36Seeking and Sea Harrier fleet being grounded because of those sanctions, the ANTPQ-37 radar,
14:42that did not come and cost Indian lives in the Kargil War in 1999, there was so much suspicion
14:50of the Americans, the GE 404 engines that did not come for the light combat aircraft.
14:56From that point in 1998-99 to 2025, as you very rightly pointed out, you know, NSSP, every U.S.
15:04government and Indian government invested so much in this relationship. Now, again, there is that
15:10feeling 25 years later, the Americans cannot be trusted. They'll stall, you know, if you were to
15:16buy strategic weapons from the Americans, they would not give you spares when you need spares.
15:21They would not give you GE 404 engines when you need those engines.
15:24Yeah. And this is absolutely, and this is, you're right. I mean, you've hit on what worries me the
15:27most about the future of this relationship, the trust in the goodwill that's been squandered here.
15:32And the fact that the administration, or should I say the White House specifically,
15:36either does not realize just how much damage has been done, or it doesn't care about trying
15:41to undo that damage. I mean, that's my perspective as an outside observer. Now, one thing that a very
15:45important contrast that has to be drawn here between the White House and between the rest of
15:50the U.S. government, you know, the White House has been driving policy toward India. It's the White
15:55House that has had the harsh criticism. You could even describe it as insults, particularly about
15:59India's economy some months back. It was the White House that decided on the 50% tariffs.
16:04You know, the State Department, DOD, the U.S. military, other agencies in the U.S. government,
16:09I would argue that their position remains what the U.S. position has been for quite some time,
16:13that the U.S.-India strategic partnership is an important one, and we need to keep it on track.
16:17So that raises another interesting question. Will we reach a point eventually where those outside
16:22the White House will be able to have more policy space to drive policy toward India? Once we see that
16:28happening, I think at that point, we might see the relationship begin to improve. And, you know,
16:33we do have two key recent appointments, you know, Paul Kapoor, the new assistant secretary for South
16:37Asia, and the incoming U.S. ambassador to India, who is very close to Trump. And that will definitely,
16:44so that suggests to me, if Ambassador Gore decides that he wants to take steps to get this relationship
16:50back on track come what may, he's not going to have resistance from the president and from others
16:56close to the president. The flip side of that is that if Ambassador Gore, for whatever reason,
17:00feels that there's problems and that he's worried and he does not want to push toward improving the
17:04relationship, the president likely would be okay with that. But if you look at the Senate confirmation
17:09hearing testimony that Ambassador Gore gave, it was very positive. He was basically, he was sounding
17:15like an official would have sounded two or eight or 10 years ago, all the things that you would expect.
17:19And if we were to just switch across to Pakistan, what explains this love between Trump and General
17:29Asim Muneer or Field Marshal Asim Muneer? Is it just cryptocurrency? What's happening there?
17:36Well, I mean, several, if we want to talk specifically about Field Marshal Muneer,
17:41there's several things. First, I mean, President Trump, he likes people that govern the way he does
17:45or the way he wants to govern. I think he's really attracted to power in a big way. And if you're
17:52looking at the Pakistan army chief, I mean, this is someone who is probably one of the, holds more
17:57power than almost any other leader in any country does, right? I mean, he's, and of course, you know,
18:04Trump met him the first time in June before he was, you know, he was benefited by these constitutional
18:08amendments that made him even more powerful. So I think that President Trump, he sees something in
18:13Muneer that he would like to be reflected in himself. You know, this super, you know, this
18:17super all-powerful leader and someone who will not face any resistance with whatever they want to do
18:23wielding it. So that's one thing. Second, you know, this has been very much out in the open for quite
18:28some time that Pakistan's government has hired some especially powerful lobbyists. And that includes
18:34some lobbyists that have very close ties to President Trump. And that counts in this administration
18:40because President Trump is someone that is, you know, he's, he really values his personal and
18:44family networks. And so I think that's one of many reasons why Muneer got that first meeting with,
18:49with Trump. And, you know, when we hear President Trump talk about his favorite field marshal,
18:54now how many field marshals are actually out there these days? But, but still, again, that might be the
18:59work of the, of the lobbying efforts. I mean, just to be very candid about it. Also, I think that,
19:04that Muneer and others that have engaged with Trump have made the case to, to, to Trump that
19:09Pakistan is an important strategic player, especially now with everything that's been
19:12happening in the Middle East. You know, Pakistan's proximity to the Middle East, its strong ties with
19:17the GCC countries. It's, it's fairly ties with Iran. Muneer had just been in Iran a few weeks before
19:23his, his first meeting with, with Trump. And I think that was important to Trump as well.
19:28But, you know, in terms of why Trump is so enamored of Pakistan more broadly,
19:31you know, you, as you, as you would well know, Pakistan has always been very good at pitching
19:36itself to, to American governments as a useful partner. And it's, you know, it's not to be too
19:41candid about it, playing the Americans well, so to speak. And in this case, making this case to the
19:47administration that it can offer something big, particularly these commercial opportunities
19:50that the administration is seeking world globally, like critical minerals, crypto.
19:54Then do due diligence, uh, as it's known, because what can a proper Pakistan anyway deliver?
20:02Where has Pakistan been able to deliver anything, except if you were to believe those conspiracy
20:06theories that Pakistan was able to deliver the heads of some Iranian generals, uh, uh, you know,
20:11to the Americans as conspiracy theorists in Pakistan also say.
20:15Yeah. I mean, I, this is why I'm a bit skeptical about this resurgence in U S Pakistan ties,
20:20because these, you know, these commercial areas that they seem to want to make the, the pillars of
20:25this new, uh, partnership, they're not going to get anywhere. There's so many questions with them.
20:29I mean, the critical minerals, most of them are in Baluchistan and KPK. It's very dangerous there.
20:33And then, you know, crypto is still illegal in Pakistan. It still hasn't been legalized.
20:38And so, uh, yeah, energy, you know, Trump announced an energy deal. No one said anything since then.
20:43Even Pakistani officials announced they're surprised about this idea of huge amounts of oil and gas
20:49reserves. So counterterrorism, now this is interesting and I know perhaps upsetting to
20:53many here in India, but when the U S when Pakistan helped the U S apprehend that Islamic State
20:59Coruscant fighter, I think it was back in March. I think that was the first thing that changed Trump's
21:05mind about Pakistan.
21:06But you know, every American gen, uh, you know, a president gets misled. I mean, this is a template
21:13in Pakistan. Any new president comes to America or any Pakistani general is visiting America.
21:19They'll just pick up one terrorist in their jail, hand him over to the Americans and Americans will
21:23say, wow, can't the Americans see, you know, can't they look beyond their nose that these are the
21:29same Pakistanis who were involved in 9-11. They're the same Pakistanis who were involved in killing so
21:33many Americans in Afghanistan, uh, involved in the killing of Daniel Pearl, protecting the killers
21:38of Daniel Pearl. And yet, but you know, I mean, this is the Trump administration does not, well,
21:45first of all, the Trump administration does not have many, it doesn't have any Pakistan experts in
21:49the white house so far as I know. That's the first thing. So that context that you just laid out will
21:53not necessarily be known, or if it's known the significance of it won't be taken into account.
21:58No institutional memory.
22:00Yeah. That's the, that's, that's the concern I have. The other issue is that this was, you know,
22:04this joint raid to get this ISK guy, you know, it was, it was a one-off, right? And the Trump
22:09administration is very tactical. So it sees, oh, the Pakistanis were willing to work with us to get
22:14this guy that killed Americans in Afghanistan. And that's enough, right? I mean, there, there doesn't
22:18need to be any, so I think that that one incident alone was enough to convince Trump that things will
22:23be, would be different or could, could be better with Pakistan. Ironic, because we remember what Trump said
22:28about Pakistan when he was in power the first time.
22:30We paid them $33 billion and, you know, they only, exactly. So one, what explains that change?
22:37Two, Pakistan has jailed their most popular former prime minister. Pakistan has a track record of
22:45killing their former prime ministers, whether in jail or through terrorists. And yet the human rights
22:52activists and human rights watch and all of them, not a word from them on Imran Khan and the manner
22:59in which he's being treated in prison. Yeah. Well, I mean, he's not exactly a darling of the West,
23:03right? I mean, he's no Navalny figure, right? He's not a Navalny-like figure. He's, you know,
23:08he's someone that's taken very harsh views. And, you know, so there's been all this, you know,
23:14there's this talk about how maybe President Trump would want to help Khan because, you know,
23:18he seemed to like him when he was president the first time and they both are similar in that they
23:21complain about the deep state and so on. I don't think so, quite frankly. So, and also there's just
23:27a lot going on in the world these days. Do you think he'll survive in jail? Do you think Asi
23:31Munir will let him live? What's your reading? Because you understand Pakistan better than most.
23:36Yeah, well, that's kind. I think that the military, Asi Munir and others in the military
23:41and intelligence establishment, they have a strong interest in keeping him safe and healthy
23:46because what's the alternative, right? If they kill him, or even if he were to die of natural
23:51causes, quite frankly, imagine their reaction on the streets, right? And if he had a heart attack,
23:57he died of natural causes, much of his base would assume that the state killed him.
24:00So where do you see more trouble for Pakistan, on the Durand line or the Radcliffe line?
24:06Oh, definitely the Durand line. Yeah. I mean, I said the other day that, you know, if the next
24:12conflict in South Asia could be between Pakistan and Afghanistan, not a conventional conflict.
24:17But my sense is that Pakistan has concluded that it has no choice but to stage kinetic activities
24:24in Afghanistan to go after these terrorists that have been coming into Pakistan.
24:28And, you know, there have been talks, as you know, mediated talks continuing. I hope those are
24:32successful. But if they're not, and I doubt they will be, yeah, I think there's a good chance that
24:36Pakistan could try to do something. And then the Taliban, which of course is no longer Pakistan's asset,
24:41could easily leverage its capacity to draw on radicals, not just TTP radicals,
24:47encourage them to stage attacks across Pakistan. That could then lead to cycles of Pakistan
24:52retaliating. It could be very ugly and very tragic. I hope it doesn't come to that.
24:56Could Pakistan break in, you know, the way they want a greater Pashtunistan,
25:01or they want a separate Balochistan as a country? Could it lead to that?
25:05No, I don't think it would go that far. I think this would be limited to, you know,
25:09the status quo. But, you know, I just worry that we could see significant levels of violence,
25:16including terrorist attacks as retaliation from Taliban sponsored militants.
25:21And then you have to worry, quite frankly, because it's just, it's not a good scene. I've been worried
25:28about this for quite some time.
25:29So clearly, US gets nothing out of Karachi port, or the Pasni port, or Balochistan,
25:36no rare earth minerals coming, material coming from there.
25:39I mean, I can't imagine the Trump administration being interested in that offer, if it really is
25:44an offer. I mean, this gets back to what we were talking about before, given that the critical
25:48minerals are in dangerous spots that the administration would not want to try to get at,
25:53and private companies too. But yeah, I think it's just a bit too much to ask.
25:58On India-US relationship, do you see it return on an even keel anytime soon,
26:03or will India have to wait out the entire Trump tenure?
26:08If there's a trade deal, that'll help. That would be a confidence building measure. I think
26:12that would make it easier for the two sides to look to work on other issues together. But I don't
26:17know if that deal is imminent, right? If both sides, or the US side for so many weeks has been saying
26:23we're close, but even after all those weeks, there's still no deal. That may be a little bit
26:27concerning. But one thing that would help has already started happening. The White House needs to stop
26:33criticizing India relentlessly. And that has stops, right? That's gone quiet. I think that's important.
26:40As I said before, I think that if officials outside the White House are given more
26:46bandwidth policy space to drive the relationship, that will help it get back on track. But
26:50ultimately, given all the trust and goodwill that's been squandered here, I think it's going
26:54to come down to the president. I think that Trump needs to take it upon himself to show that he himself
26:59is personally committed to the partnership with India. And he's continued to be very
27:03complimentary of Prime Minister Modi. But I think it would take him coming here for the quad meeting,
27:08presumably early next year, to really move things forward. But I think he would only do that
27:13if there's something big to trump it. And that could entail a trade deal. So I think that from the US
27:18side, maybe the ideal thing is to get some type of trade deal by the first few months of next year,
27:23when you could have a quad summit. I mean, I don't know exactly when it would happen. If it happens early next
27:27year, then Trump would be more willing to come, announce the trade deal, strengthen the US-India
27:32relationship, and also bolster the quad by finally having that meeting that's overdue to take place.
27:36Okay. And US wouldn't be very worried about this re-loss agreement that India's had with Russia.
27:41This is the first time that Russia would have this logistics agreement and Russian ships and aircraft
27:47could be in the Indian Ocean region. Yeah, no, for now, it's a concern. I mean, I said before,
27:51Trump does not have a hot, he doesn't take a hostile position toward Russia like others, and
27:56particularly the Democrats do in the US. But he wouldn't be happy with it now. But honestly,
28:02it doesn't involve buying. I don't think he would be as bothered by that as he would be about
28:07India ramping up its oil imports from Russia, especially because the US and other countries,
28:12France and Israel, are increasingly supplying material to Russia. And the trajectory of US-Russia
28:17security ties in terms of the arms trade, it's not quite as positive as it used to be,
28:22just because India seems committed to buying more from others now.
28:24So very interesting times we live in. Great having this conversation with you.
28:29Many, many thanks for joining me here on the Chakravu podcast. We're right in the midst of this Chakravu.
28:33Let's see who emerges and how from it. Michael Kugelman for joining me here in India today.
28:39Many thanks. Thanks for having me.
Be the first to comment