- 13 hours ago
As the forty-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran nears its conclusion, uncertainty surrounds the proposed second round of peace talks in Islamabad.
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00:01Good evening, you're watching India First. I'm Gaurav Savan. The suspense builds. Will it be war again in West Asia?
00:10Hours to go for that ceasefire to end. According to reports, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance is yet
00:16to take off for Islamabad
00:18ahead of the proposed round two of peace talks between the United States and Iran.
00:23Iranian media is saying no team from Iran has reached Islamabad either.
00:30U.S. President Donald Trump continues to send mixed signals hours before the ceasefire comes to an end.
00:38In an interview to a section of the U.S. media, Donald Trump has said he does not want to
00:44extend the ceasefire.
00:45He, of course, is confident that there will be a deal with Iran saying that the United States is in
00:53a strong negotiating position.
00:55In Pakistan, Islamabad has been turned into a virtual container city. Total lockdown in Islamabad.
01:04They're waiting for the arrival of the American team and the Iranian team.
01:10Talks are to happen tomorrow. None of the teams have arrived.
01:13Donald Trump claims the blockade of Iranian ports has been a success so far.
01:19He, in fact, is saying he's ready for further military action.
01:24So how should one read President Trump's tweets and claims?
01:30Of course, he says a lot of things.
01:32But then that's exactly the point that the Iranians are making.
01:35What should we take seriously?
01:37When asked if the United States will resume bombing Iran if a deal is not struck before the end of
01:42the ceasefire,
01:43that is tomorrow evening, Indian Standard Time, President Trump said, and I quote,
01:48Well, I expect to be bombing because I think it's a better attitude to go in with.
01:55But we are ready to go.
01:57Unquote.
01:58He also posted another media on a message on social media platform Truth Social asking Iran not to execute eight
02:07women.
02:08And we'll just put those images out on your screens.
02:11The United States Department of War, incidentally, and I want you to look at these images very carefully.
02:16The U.S. Department of War has released a new video of conducting a right of visit maritime interdiction.
02:24It boarded a stateless sanctioned vessel.
02:28The vessel that you see on your television screen, this was boarded on the high seas in the Indo-Pacific
02:35Ocean.
02:35The Department of War issued a statement saying the war and said it will continue to deny sanctioned vessels from
02:44operating freely on the high seas.
02:47Meanwhile, there is a professor at the University of Tehran who claims everyone should immediately leave the United Arab Emirates,
02:59Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
03:03Sailors on all ships in the Persian Gulf must also prepare to evacuate their ships.
03:08This is especially urgent for ships near the Strait of Hormuz, which will be destroyed first.
03:15Time is running out.
03:16Unquote.
03:17U.S. media reports that the United States and Iran have signaled they will hold a new round of ceasefire
03:24talks in Islamabad.
03:25Pakistan-led mediators, they claim, they've received confirmation that top negotiators.
03:31From the U.S. side, it's U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance.
03:34From the Iranian side, it is the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohamed Bagheir Ghalibaf.
03:40They will arrive in Islamabad according to reports early Wednesday and lead their teams into this conversation.
03:47This is a report that's just been put out by the Associated Press.
03:50Now, German foreign minister says, we are now urgently calling on Iran to come to Islamabad and engage in constructive
03:58negotiations with the United States.
04:00I want you to understand this.
04:02This is a big statement that's now being made by the German foreign minister.
04:07The German foreign minister is reaching out publicly to Iran saying, we are now urgently calling on Iran to come
04:14to Islamabad and engage in constructive negotiations with the United States of America.
04:19He pointed out that U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance is ready to travel to Pakistan and that Iran
04:25should now take this outstretched hand in the interest of its own people.
04:31When you read between the lines, it appears that the U.S. team is on standby, U.S. Vice President
04:39J.D. Vance, the Special Envoy for West Asia, Steve Witkoff and President Trump's son-in-law and businessman Jared
04:48Kushner.
04:49Now, all of them are ready. They are ready to fly to Pakistan, but there's reluctance on the Iranian side.
04:56Is this posturing or is this far more serious than posturing?
05:00Because Pakistan is trying to say, all is well. Everyone will arrive and dialogue will happen.
05:04But the German foreign minister calling on Iran and saying, you must go take that outstretched hand.
05:12According to Press TV, an Iranian tanker, Silly City, it crossed the Arabian Sea and reached Iranian waters overnight with
05:20Iranian Navy, the IRGC Navy, with their small fast attack crafts, supporting it, escorting it, ignoring warnings from the U
05:30.S. Navy Task Force.
05:31Now, this is a video that Iran has put out and we'll show you that video.
05:34So, there's this large tanker. It's sailing past with very small fast attack crafts or speed boats accompanying it.
05:44They are saying, you don't need the might of the U.S. Navy. Iranian Navy can escort their own ships
05:49through the blockade into the Strait of Hormuz and safely in an Iranian port.
05:54That vessel is now docked at an Iranian port. So, what does this indicate?
05:59We will decode all of these messages and very conflicting messages that are coming in from Pakistan, from Iran and
06:07from the United States of America.
06:08But in conflict, they say, you don't just listen to what the leaders are saying.
06:14You watch signs on ground or, if I may hear, in the air and at sea.
06:21What's happening right now?
06:22U.S. may be talking peace, but is the United States preparing for the next round of war?
06:28Look at the build-up of the U.S. Armed Forces in the region.
06:31Is it only for a blockade or does the United States have a bigger and more dangerous plans already in
06:40place?
06:41So, let's begin by giving you an idea of the deployment that's already taken place and the deployment that is
06:48taking place using this ceasefire after 40 days of war.
06:52Has that enabled the United States to increase its footprint across the region?
06:57Take, for example, we're talking about the CENTCOM region, the U.S. Central Command.
07:02The U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division.
07:05It has between 1,000 to 4,000 troops already in place for rapid response or for ground operations.
07:14Already in place.
07:15Two Ohio-class nuclear-powered guided missile submarines already in the Arabian Sea and wider Indian Ocean region.
07:25Look at the U.S. Air Force deployment.
07:28They have the F-22 Raptors, the F-15E Strike Eagles, the Tomahawk missiles, the KC-46 Pegasus tankers, the
07:36A-10 Warthogs, the B-1B Lancer bombers, the B-52s.
07:40The B-52s, incidentally, are flying from continental United States, being fuelled mid-air, carrying out their missions and then
07:48flying back to continental United States.
07:50Then you have the B-2s.
07:52Again, the B-2 bombers like the B-52s are coming from continental United States.
07:57Then, the aircraft carriers.
07:59Take a look at the aircraft carriers in the region.
08:02You have the USS George Bush.
08:04This is a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, part of that aircraft carrier strike group.
08:08It comes with its Ale Burk-class destroyers.
08:11The USS Donald Cook, USS Mason, USS Ross.
08:15Of course, they also have one Los Angeles-class submarine with it.
08:21Their nuclear submarines and their attack submarines, they send out a very, very powerful signal.
08:27Other navies stay away.
08:29U.S. dominates these waters.
08:31But then there are those who have argued, yes, U.S. has 11 aircraft carrier strike groups, but then it
08:36has to cross a very narrow strait, barely 33 kilometers wide.
08:40And that is where this large force is immaterial.
08:44But then the U.S. also has forces for that narrow strait.
08:48But let me give you a bigger picture first before we get into that smaller picture.
08:52Then, the USS Ford, Gerald R. Ford, again, aircraft carrier strike, part of the aircraft carrier strike group.
09:00With its Ale Burk-class destroyers, it has the Winston Churchill, Mahan, again with its Los Angeles-class submarine.
09:06And then the USS Abraham Lincoln.
09:09This, again, is a Nimitz-class carrier.
09:11Again, with its Ale Burk-class destroyers, USS Spruance.
09:14Incidentally, USS Spruance was in action in the past 48 hours.
09:18We saw the manner in which it fired that gun at the merchant vessel Tosca before soldiers and sailors boarded
09:28it.
09:29Then you have the USS Frank Peterson, Jr.
09:32Again, a Los Angeles-class or a Virginia-class submarine with it.
09:36Plus, what we have been talking about for quite some time, but not in great detail, USS Tripoli and USS
09:45Boxer, the amphibious assault ships.
09:48So, let's talk about USS Tripoli, that image that you see on your television screen.
09:52USS Tripoli is a modern America-class amphibious assault ship.
09:56Incidentally, it's also often called the Lightning Carrier because of its very strong fixed-wing aviation focus.
10:03Why? It's a very versatile platform.
10:06It's used for expeditionary forces supporting the U.S. marine operations with air, land and sea capabilities.
10:13It's part, incidentally, very recently, as part of USS Spruance targeting MV Tosca on the high seas,
10:21just as it tried to break the blockade and get into an Iranian port.
10:26Well, you had sailors on board, USS Marines who boarded Tosca from USS Tripoli.
10:34And then, of course, it's the USS Boxer.
10:37This is a WASP-plus amphibious assault ship of the U.S. Navy,
10:41serves as the flagship of the ARG or the Amphibious Ready Group.
10:46It almost functions like a small aircraft carrier for marine operations.
10:50Embarks between 2,000 to about 3,000 at times, U.S. Marines,
10:55as part of the Marine Expeditionary Unit, carries an aircraft carrier, including the F-35Bs.
11:00F-35B Lightning IIs are the stealth fighters, the fifth-generation stealth fighters.
11:05Then, it has the Osprey Tilt Rotor, and it has the attack helicopters, the transport helicopters.
11:11It has a very large flight deck for landing aircraft, and, of course, can also be used as a command
11:17and control center.
11:20What does all of this indicate?
11:22Let me quickly bring my colleague Sandeep Unnithan into this conversation for more on this.
11:29Sandeep, what should one make of one talks that are scheduled,
11:35but the weapons and systems that are being put in place, Sandeep?
11:39Well, Gaurav, it's clear that the United States is locked and loaded in case the talks fail,
11:44and Trump needs an off-ramp using the military.
11:48And there is a huge amount of firepower currently in West Asia.
11:51In the CENTCOM region, as you've just described, there are two carrier strike groups.
11:55There's a third one that's rounding the Cape of Good Hope and should be in the region by the end
12:01of April.
12:01A second amphibious ready group is somewhere near the Philippines.
12:06It should be entering the Indian Ocean very soon.
12:09So there's going to be a tremendous amount of firepower.
12:12The U.S. has been using the two-week ceasefire to bolster its forces,
12:16to resupply many of its aircraft, to bring in ordnance, ammunition.
12:20There are a lot of C-17 flights that we've been picking up over the last couple of days.
12:26All this points to a very extended, heightened level of readiness, military readiness.
12:33If Trump actually plans to do what he said he would,
12:38which is to take out civilian infrastructure in Iran by targeting bridges, power plants,
12:43these are the assets that the United States will use to carry out those orders.
12:48As horrible as they sound, targeting civilian infrastructure is something like a bit of a war crime, Gaurav, really.
12:57Okay, now after 40 days of conflict and the ceasefire that's been in place,
13:02that incidentally ends around 0530 hours tomorrow, that's 0530 hours IST.
13:08As you can see, 9 hours and 18 minutes to go for the ceasefire to end.
13:14Still no further movement in place, at least in public domain.
13:19What is the current situation?
13:21First round of talks have ended without a breakthrough.
13:24The US-imposed naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains in place.
13:29Iran is now retaliating and this is leading to tensions rising at sea.
13:34Both sides have issued direct threats as ceasefire nears its end.
13:38Iran is refusing to talk under pressure and US has warned Iran of massive retaliatory strikes.
13:47Iran says, you can't talk to us with a gun put to our head.
13:51Iran's very clear about that.
13:53As far as the blockade is concerned, Iran says an off-ramp was given to the United States
13:57when Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open for all.
14:00They expected, at least Pakistan led them to believe, according to commentary that's coming in from Iran,
14:06Pakistan led them to believe if Iran were to open the Strait of Hormuz,
14:10if Iran were to open it, America would also open it.
14:14But that didn't happen.
14:15US President Donald Trump, he doubled down.
14:18And Iran feels very miffed at that.
14:20So what is scenario one?
14:22Talks happen and there's a temporary extension of a ceasefire, a temporary deal.
14:27Possible interim agreement, not a final deal.
14:31What is the aim?
14:32Extend the ceasefire, continue negotiations.
14:34And the framework would be, talk about sanctions relief versus steps that Iran would take not to enrich uranium.
14:45And perhaps either hand over enriched uranium to the United States, that's a maximalist position of the US.
14:50Maybe to China, maybe to Russia, or maybe just keep it and not use it, downgraded.
15:00Will that happen?
15:01Depends on negotiations.
15:02Scenario two, talks happen like round one, but no breakthrough, quite like round one.
15:08No agreement, but a ceasefire may still be extended.
15:12Big gaps remain on the nuclear program of Iran, the sanctions, Hormuz control, diplomacy continues,
15:19but deadlock remains.
15:20That is option two.
15:23Scenario three, no talks, but ceasefire is extended as efforts are made to find common ground,
15:32at least some common ground.
15:34Pakistan is added, Turkey, Egypt, maybe other countries also join in.
15:38So there is a temporary truce, a pause without negotiations.
15:42Of course, a very fragile situation.
15:44High risk of any miscalculation and the situation exploding.
15:48But this could be buying time, not resolving the conflict.
15:52But you know that no war, no peace scenario.
15:55Scenario four, talks fail and bombing starts.
16:01Ceasefire has all but collapsed.
16:03Iran very angry, not just with the blockade, but the targeting of an Iran-bound ship.
16:09Reports in the United States seem to indicate that that ship was carrying nuclear material for their conventional missiles.
16:20And Iran is very miffed about that.
16:24It could lead to full-scale escalation.
16:26Again, U.S. may target critical infrastructure, including power plants, energy centers, bridges.
16:34Iran signals readiness for military retaliation.
16:37And this could then explode into a wider regional conflict with professors who are considered very close to the establishment,
16:44saying that the region would be targeted.
16:47Alexander Slater is managing director of Capstone Corporate and is geopolitical expert on national security issues.
16:55Joins us from Washington, D.C.
16:57Sandeep Unnitan stays with me.
16:58Alexander Slater, your reading of the current situation, deadline for the ceasefire to end is nine hours from now.
17:06The vice president, according to reports from the U.S., hasn't even taken off.
17:10The Iranian side not too keen to come, again, according to reports from Iran.
17:14How do you read the situation?
17:18Karavis, nice to see you.
17:19Thanks for having me on the show today.
17:20I think the situation, as you've laid out, is uncertain, unfortunately.
17:25I think it's in the interests of both sides for the shooting to stop and for the Strait of Hormuz
17:32ultimately to be opened and for the blockade to end.
17:34The question is, do they have the ability to have reached an agreement?
17:41And, you know, the publicly articulated positions of the two countries seem far apart.
17:47And so the question is, are these countries posturing publicly to seek some sort of gains at the table or
17:54to influence other external actors?
17:57While when they're at the table, are they saying something different?
18:00And that's why I think that the negotiations that are scheduled for, I believe, tomorrow should shed some light on
18:10this and are so important.
18:12Not merely for the two countries involved, but for the rest of the world, given the impact that the Strait
18:16of Hormuz has on everything from oil and gas exports to fertilizers.
18:22Iran wants U.S. to remove the blockade.
18:25And before I bring in Sandeep, you know, Alexander Slater, Iran says when they announced Strait of Hormuz is open,
18:33they gave an off-ramp to the U.S. president.
18:36They announced it first.
18:37They expected the American president to announce the removal of the blockade.
18:40He instead doubled down and said the blockade will remain in place till the time there's a final settlement.
18:46And Iran feels very slighted.
18:48They feel let down.
18:49They feel cheated.
18:50Do they feel let down and cheated by Pakistan that may have misled either side or misled by or by
18:58the United States of America?
19:00I think that's very hard to answer.
19:02It's hard to know.
19:03Again, both of these sides aren't necessarily the public relations battle between these two sides is hot and heavy.
19:11And so it's hard to know who's saying what and how accurate it is what they're saying.
19:16And, of course, what's going on between negotiations and mediators is often recharacterized publicly to the advantage of a given
19:25side.
19:25I would say that the United States' leverage right now, best leverage comes from the blockade, right?
19:32And this is because what the president wants is to not increase oil prices and impact the stock market.
19:40And that's best done right now through non-shooting, even if oil isn't flowing, because the hotter things get, the
19:48more the stock market panics.
19:49And so he wants to do this in a way that creates an off-ramp for Iran or makes it
19:55seem publicly that this isn't going to be an end-of-days scenario.
19:59And that's why he wants the blockade to be in place.
20:02And it gives him significant leverage over Iran because otherwise, if the Strait of Hormuz opens, the Iranian government will
20:09be able to secure payments from countries to allow shipments to come through.
20:16And that's something that I don't think the president is open to doing because he wants to make sure that
20:20Iran feels a lot of pressure.
20:22And once he does that, the pressure really is off of Iran unless he again starts a shooting war, which
20:29is something that the markets really don't want.
20:32The markets certainly don't want that.
20:34But Sandeep, Khark Island handles about 90% of Iranian oil.
20:39There are some in Iran who say that President Trump may continue with this blockade.
20:44They have the Caspian Sea route.
20:47Is that, how logical is that?
20:50How much can the Caspian Sea route handle?
20:53And do they need the Khark Island and this Strait of Hormuz route opened as quickly as possible, as far
20:59as Iran's concerned?
21:00Well, you know, Gaurav, Iran, like all the other GCC countries, depends entirely on the Persian Gulf, the Strait of
21:08Hormuz, for exporting its oil.
21:10While it does have a port on the Arabian seaside, which is Bandar, the Chabahar, a majority of its ports
21:19are in the Persian Gulf.
21:21And Khark Island, as you mentioned, is somewhere where 90% of Iran's oil and gas flow out of.
21:28So it is, you know, it will hurt at some point.
21:31It will hurt Iran when all its oil shipments are blocked out.
21:34It cannot ship out a lot of oil and gas through the Caspian route.
21:37It has about three ports on the Caspian side.
21:39But primarily Iran's, a bulk of Iran's oil production facilities are concentrated in the south along the Persian Gulf.
21:47So Iran is as dependent on the Persian Gulf as the rest of the Arab countries are.
21:52And that is the reason why they want the United States to lift that blockade which they have imposed.
21:57That is a huge lever, the huge leverage that the United States has on Iran.
22:01So while Iran blockades the Strait of Hormuz, this counter-blockade that the U.S. has imposed on them is
22:07going to bring in some grief to Iran.
22:10And that is something that is, you know, creating this unsettlement, if you can call it that, in Tehran right
22:15now, Gaurav.
22:16Give me a moment.
22:17There's breaking news that's coming in and it's coming in from Pakistan, even as we speak.
22:22There's a response from Pakistan's foreign, Pakistan's information minister.
22:27He says a formal response from Iran is still awaited.
22:31There are details of the delegation from Iran that will attend the Islamabad peace talks.
22:38The composition of the delegation details are still awaited.
22:43Pakistan's information minister has said Pakistan as the mediator is in constant touch with Iran.
22:50It's pursuing the path of diplomacy and dialogue.
22:54Pakistan's information minister then went on to say,
22:57Pakistan made sincere efforts to convince the Iranian leadership to participate in the second round of talks.
23:04And efforts still continue.
23:07Is this an indication?
23:10And this is the latest that is just coming in.
23:13Sandeep, is this an indication that Iran has still not said yes to coming for this round of talks?
23:21In fact, Pakistan's interior minister, Mohsen Nakhvi, he travelled to the Iranian embassy, met the ambassador, met some officials,
23:31but could not get a final confirmation, a final yes from the Iranian ambassador, Sandeep.
23:36Gaurav, you know, it's very interesting that these talks are literally going down to the wire in a sense that
23:42the Iranians have not even joined.
23:44They're not showing any interest in joining these talks.
23:48And I think that's primarily to indicate how, you know, upset they are with the way the maximalist position that
23:54the United States has taken.
23:55There are a number of issues that have worried them.
23:58Of course, the blockade is one.
23:59The other is, of course, seizing of one of their vessels, which they say is a violation of the ceasefire.
24:04And many other reasons.
24:06And the maximalist position, of course, is over the nuclear question.
24:10That is a red line that Iran says that they cannot accept.
24:14They can't allow for their material to be taken away or even their enrichment facilities to be capped.
24:21So it's a very hard bargain that Iran is driving.
24:24And I think, Gaurav, the sense that one gets from looking at the way they've been talking over the last
24:28couple of days
24:30is that they believe they have time on their side and it is the United States that needs these talks
24:36far more than Iran does.
24:38Let me bring in Alexander Slater to respond to this as we get our guest from Tehran joining us in
24:43just a moment.
24:44Alexander Slater, Pakistan's information minister says they're still waiting to hear from Iran the composition of the delegation.
24:52Now, is this politely saying that they do not know who all is coming, if at all they're coming,
24:57or they know that the delegation will come, they don't know who will be leading it?
25:02My understanding is that there are reports that Iran has confirmed to Pakistan that it will be participating in the
25:08talks.
25:08But as you rightly note, Pakistan is saying that they've not officially done it, as in publicly stated it and
25:14provided these details.
25:15And so I think that's an accurate statement about where things are right now.
25:19My understanding is that Pakistan, pardon me, Iran has made this statement or is delaying because it says it does
25:25not want to negotiate under threat.
25:27And as you've seen over the last 24 hours, President Trump has escalated his rhetoric against Iran,
25:33saying that he's not inclined to extend the ceasefire, that he's ready to attack all the bridges and power stations
25:39in Iran if the negotiations are not fruitful.
25:43And so I think, again, this is more posturing between the two sides publicly as a way to change the
25:51public debate
25:52and to make them look more appealing to the specific audiences that they consider to be their constituencies.
26:00I don't know that I would agree that time is on Iran's side.
26:04I think both sides are under time pressure, frankly.
26:08But my sense is that-
26:10Okay, explain this. So as far as America is concerned, there is President Trump's visit to China,
26:15there is the 4th of July celebrations, and then there is midterm elections.
26:18He is racing against these three deadlines. What are the deadlines for Iran?
26:23I think the deadlines for Iran are that it has no revenue from oil.
26:27And this is its major export. And so the regime is really running out of resources to function.
26:36You also saw that this boat that was intercepted by the U.S. military, ostensibly from China,
26:44which was likely carrying precursors to ballistic missile fuel,
26:49shows that Iran can't get access to materials that it needs to respond to any U.S. military force.
27:00And so time is not really on Iran's side either.
27:03And I think, unfortunately, what happens here is that they're suffering globally.
27:08I think India, unfortunately, is also very much caught in the crosshairs on the oil front,
27:13given how much of- and the gas front, and even on the agricultural front,
27:16given the exports of certain fertilizers and precursors to fertilizers,
27:21as well as oil and gas from the Gulf.
27:23And so I think what you're going to see is a lot, as time goes on,
27:26increasing pressure from countries outside of the bilateral conflict here,
27:31pushing for a resolution.
27:34And India, of course, I think has a really important role to play,
27:36given its relationship with both the United States and Iran.
27:40Even as Pakistan is the official mediator here,
27:42I do think that India has significant influence in that it has channels to both parties
27:47and can emphasize what can be done to bring the temperature down
27:53and hopefully reach a long-standing and durable resolution.
27:58Is it your apprehension that if these talks don't succeed,
28:01America will start bombing Iran once again?
28:04We'll see round two of this war.
28:06The U.S. use these weeks of ceasefire to build up?
28:09Alexander Slater?
28:11It's unclear.
28:12I think that if you go by the past history, yes,
28:15the suggestion of a U.S. buildup of forces in the region
28:17indicates that the U.S. is likely to use force.
28:21President Trump has said that he's not inclined to extend the ceasefire.
28:25But then on the other side, as I laid out earlier,
28:28if this gets up to be a hot war again,
28:30you'll see oil prices skyrocket and the markets go down.
28:34And that's not in what the president wants,
28:38especially in the immediate term.
28:39And of course, you've laid out the longer term implications of gas prices
28:43remaining high with the midterms about six months away.
28:47And so we know that gas prices in the United States tend to remain high for longer.
28:53They go up quickly and then they come down slowly.
28:55And so the longer this goes on, the worse it is for the president looking at the midterms.
29:00At the same time, you know, he seems very much focused on getting rid of Iran's nuclear materials
29:06and incurring significant costs to get to it.
29:11And that is something that Iran says is one of our red lines.
29:14Alexander Slater, many thanks for joining me.
29:16I quickly now want to cut across to Tehran, Professor Syed Imanian.
29:21Professor Imanian is a professor of public policy and governance at the Amir Kabir University of Technology
29:26and the founder of a public policy think tank in Tehran.
29:29He joins us on the show from Tehran.
29:32Professor, welcome.
29:34U.S. President Donald Trump has accused Iran of violating the ceasefire repeatedly
29:39hours before the ceasefire comes to an end.
29:43Will round two of talks actually happen?
29:46Will Iran send a delegation?
29:48How is Iran reacting to Trump tweets and posts, sir?
29:55First of all, we need to take into consideration that Trump's administration has very bad experience
30:04in the prior to any kind of the talks.
30:08It's very historical record that they have attacked Iran twice,
30:13once Iran and U.S. were undergoing attack.
30:20So it was something that everyone won't believe Trump in terms of,
30:28or won't trust Trump in terms of its genuine willing for diplomacy.
30:35It's very historical record, as I said.
30:38We never experienced such a betrayal to diplomacy twice in a few months' time.
30:43So Trump doesn't have such a viability, reliability, or trustfulness with regards to his claim
30:52about being compliant or being committed to its own, its administration agreements.
31:01Now, what are Iran's expectations from round two of talks?
31:06Should Iran get to the talks table?
31:09Is there uncertainty around it?
31:11And for Iran, that says that we will not have talks with a blockade gun kept to their head.
31:17Is removal of the blockade a precondition for resumption of dialogue, sir?
31:24Yeah.
31:25From Iranian point of view, as far as I understand, the blockade that has occurred exactly the day
31:36after the first round of the talk was another form of betrayal to diplomacy.
31:40So Trump is not in the position to accuse Iran of violation of the ceasefire.
31:46It was Trump that the first one that he violated the ceasefire.
31:50If you remember, just Iranian foreign minister posted a tweet, and he mentioned that we are
31:56going to open up the Strait of the Hormones based on the agreement.
32:00Just minutes after that, Trump tweeted that, thank you, but we are going to keep the blockade
32:08going on.
32:09So it was a very, very immediate betrayal to the diplomacy.
32:14Another historical record.
32:17So I think Trump is not in the position to accuse anyone else for breaking any kind of
32:25agreements or violating the ceasefire.
32:27It was Trump that was the first one, that immediately after Iranian, the very important move, very
32:35controversial domestically, that foreign ministers tweeted for opening the Strait, that it was
32:43criticized a lot inside Iran.
32:46But at the same time, Trump violated the ceasefire by keeping the blockade as a new measure,
32:52new leverage to pressurize Iran.
32:55So I think everyone is clear.
32:58It's how everything happens on the eye of the media and the people of the world.
33:04So it's not something behind the scenes.
33:07Okay, so tell me this, sir.
33:10American media is reporting that civilian leadership in Iran, you know, whether it's the Speaker
33:15of the Parliament, Mohamed Baghir Ghalibaf or the Foreign Minister, Sayyad Abbas Araqchi,
33:21they are not completely in control.
33:24And IRGC is accusing them of being too soft, giving in too much to the United States.
33:30IRGC wants a harder line and more aggressive diplomacy.
33:35So is the IRGC now in complete control of Iran, sir?
33:40Yeah, I could understand that Trump is trying to provide a view of the Iranian team as a
33:50not unified team, something that has been polarized or two different forces, at least two different
33:56forces.
33:57But everyone knows that the Iranian political system has proved to be very resilient and
34:05at the same time very unified in terms of the dealing with the U.S. administration.
34:11Even in what happened in the last few days and weeks, there was very huge cooperation between
34:19different sides, between what is happening in the Strait by the field and what is going
34:24to be agreed upon by the diplomats.
34:30It was very clear coordination and cooperation, and everyone knows that it won't be possible
34:37for Iran to everyone to go ahead with their own agenda.
34:41This is a very, very resilient and unified system in terms of the foreign policy and has
34:47proved before, of course.
34:50It's not something that I could believe, and I won't believe it.
34:54Sir, can we for a moment take some of these substantive issues that are being seen as big roadblocks
34:59in the talks moving forward?
35:01President Trump says Iran should hand over the highly enriched uranium to the United States
35:07of America, or what should that affect?
35:08Iran should or Iran will.
35:10What is the thinking in Tehran?
35:11Is Iran willing to hand over the 400-odd kilograms of highly enriched uranium either to the U.S.
35:18or to Russia and China or China for safekeeping or downblend it?
35:27Actually, I don't have any information behind the scenes.
35:30But I'm sure that the first Iranian stance has always been that we are going to downblend
35:40the highly enriched uranium, but we are going to keep it inside Iranian territory.
35:48The most extreme option would be to hand over it to the Americans, so it won't happen at all.
35:57I think that the Iranian team still is going to insist on keeping the downblended, highly enriched
36:04uranium inside Iran.
36:05So there is no need to move it from the Iranian territory once everything is going to be very
36:12transparent under IAEA inspection, and it would be very much technically doable downblending
36:24process will be possible by the huge monitoring and supervision of IAEA.
36:31So there is no need for moving materials outside the Iranian territory.
36:36But I'm sure that it would be part of the political victory for Trump, because you know
36:42that Trump has lost the battlefield by its strategic targets, comparing to its strategic targets.
36:52But at the same time, Trump needs a political victory.
36:54It needs to provide something for his constituency, that I have been the winner of the war.
37:01But, you know, most of the people, most of the even public opinion, based on the statistics,
37:06based on the surveys in the U.S., they won't see Trump as someone that has been successful until now,
37:13and there won't be any chance for him to be a winner of the war.
37:17So Trump needs to come to the reality and to be very much more open to the reality and to
37:28change
37:29the level playing field as he was expected before.
37:33And on Iran's nuclear enrichment program, there is some talk that America wants Iran to freeze
37:42it for the next 10 years, not to enrich the uranium, or to enrich it only up to a certain
37:48extent,
37:49you know, maybe 3 percent or 3.5 percent or 7 percent for the next five or five plus five
37:55years.
37:56What can you tell us about that?
37:57What's the thinking within Iran?
38:02As far as I know, something that is very clear has been said clearly since last few years,
38:10and particularly since last year that Trump came to power, that Iran is going to, is open
38:19to assure everyone, international community as they are framing, or the U.S. administration,
38:25that they won't see any, any, any, any more international community.
38:28There is just a U.S. unilateral pressure to make sure, U.S., that Iran is not going to seek
38:35weaponization of the nuclear program.
38:37So any measure that is directly relevant to this kind of the assurance, Iran is very open
38:44to do, to do that.
38:45Okay.
38:46Zero enrichment is not something relevant to the weaponization of the, any, any kind of
38:53nuclear program.
38:54Based on the NPT, every country has the right to enrich.
38:58And as far as I know, Americans are also willing to declare that right of the Iranians for enrichment.
39:07But they are asking for a voluntary suspension.
39:09Okay.
39:11And again, Iranians are looking for, to be open to a very short period of time, just as
39:18trust-building measurement.
39:20At the same time, they need to keep the level of the enrichment as 3.65, or 3.67, if
39:29I'm not
39:29mistaken.
39:30Okay.
39:30As a very civilized R&D limit and cap for enrichment.
39:38And it's something that Iranians are very much logically and rationally looking for, and they
39:45are expecting that those kind of the agreements won't ask Iranians to give up the whole enrichment
39:53for a period of time.
39:54So basically the JCPOA 2.0 is what Iran is looking at.
39:59Because President Trump will not accept the JCPOA that was, you know, the plan of action
40:05under Obama regime.
40:07He wants something better.
40:08But tell me this, sir.
40:09The Strait of Hormuz that was anyways opened on the 27th of February, before the conflict
40:14started on the 28th, is Iran willing to open it?
40:18Free and open movement for ships going in and coming out of every country.
40:22Is that possible?
40:23Is Iran willing to negotiate this aspect?
40:29Yeah.
40:30The Strait of Hormuz was clearly the consequence of the unprovoked war imposed on Iran by Israel
40:38and America.
40:39And the Strait of Hormuz, of course, is going to be open on its Iranian policy.
40:44So if there was, of course, for any kind of this kind of geopolitical positions, if there
40:51was some cost for security measurements or for any kind of environmental protection, so
41:01there would be some mechanism.
41:03I don't know about the details, but nothing to be worried about.
41:07Very, very normal, very, very, very, based on the international protocols.
41:11Something that is very important is that the Strait of Hormuz is a leverage, geopolitical
41:19leverage that Iran is going to use to make a very clear strategy much more implementable.
41:26That the free passage, free trade, and security, either for everyone or for no one.
41:36It's the time now over that everyone is looking for free passage, free trade, development, economic
41:44trade, but at the same time they are going to impose sanctions on Iran.
41:48That's a very interesting point you make, sir.
41:51So Strait of Hormuz has to be open for all or for none.
41:55Sanctions on Iran and Strait open for everyone else is not acceptable to you.
42:00But sir, permit me to ask you this one question, the last 30 seconds I have on this part of
42:04the show.
42:05The US forces are building up in the region, in the Arabian Sea.
42:09There's a third aircraft carrier strike group that's moving in, two amphibus assault ships
42:14are getting in place, there are 10,000 additional soldiers and sailors and marine commandos that
42:19are moving in.
42:21Is there an apprehension, sir, if talks do not succeed, war could start again?
42:30Okay, yes, there is a possibility.
42:34Everyone knows that Trump has proved that there is no international law or order anymore.
42:40So Trump is going to do whatever he wants, and no one is going to criticize him.
42:46So it's kind of the jungle style, kind of the international order.
42:51Iran is very much learning to be always prepared for any possibility that may happen, any other
43:02unprovoked war or attack or strike on Iran by Israelis and Americans.
43:06So it doesn't matter whether this evening or tomorrow or next year or next few months.
43:13That's a possibility.
43:14And that's the reality that we are facing with.
43:17As I said, a very jungle style kind of the international order, that some countries like
43:22Israel and America, they have such kind of the ambition to attack any country, any time
43:29they want, and in any position.
43:31So Iranian national security is based on being well prepared for such strikes.
43:38And with regards to the ceasefire, it's much more clear for Iranians that there is a clear
43:44chance of revival of the war.
43:48So Iran is fully prepared for the next round of the war, if it happens.
43:54And the previous round of the war that happened once Iran was talking with the U.S., and it
44:01was a kind of a shock for Iranians.
44:03But Iran proved very much military and politically resilient.
44:07So I think there won't be any chance for any clear problem for Iranian military and defense
44:16structure.
44:17It would be resilient enough to self-defense and to change such kind of the shocks to a
44:25victory that happens in the last 40 days of the war.
44:30This is actually very alarming, Professor Imanian, for joining me here on India Today from Tehran.
44:37Many thanks.
44:38Is there an apprehension?
44:39Is there a fear that we could now be looking at Epic Fury 2.0 should these talks not succeed?
44:47We'll be tracking that story very closely.
44:48The National Investigation Agency, NIA, has been roped in to probe the fire at the Rajasthan
44:54Refinery a day before Prime Minister Narendra Modi was scheduled to inaugurate it.
45:00A major fire broke out around 2 p.m. at the HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Limited yesterday.
45:06The blaze occurred in the vicinity of the Crude Distillation Unit, or the CDU.
45:11Now this is a very important processing section of the refinery, according to reports that are
45:17coming in.
45:17The Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited has initiated an investigation to find out whether
45:23this was a mishap, was this negligence, or could this have been sabotage?
45:30There appears to be no major financial or operational impact to the refinery itself.
45:35The company said, Prima Fissi, it appears to be some kind of a leakage, a leakage of hydrocarbons
45:41through one of the valves at the heat exchanger circuit that resulted in the fire.
45:48Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma and Chief Secretary, they also visited Badmer,
45:53where this refinery is.
45:55I will tell you more about this refinery because it's a very, very important refinery.
45:59There's a team of National Investigation Agency that's also joined investigations.
46:04Because was this merely an unfortunate mishap?
46:07Was it the result of perhaps negligence or material fatigue, but this is a brand new refinery?
46:12Or was this something more sinister, perhaps even sabotage?
46:16That's an aspect of investigation.
46:17According to information that's coming in, a fact-finding team from the Ministry of Home Affairs
46:22is also being dispatched to conduct a preliminary investigation into this Rajasthan refinery fire.
46:27This is a greenfield integrated refinery built at a cost of 79,000 crore rupees.
46:34It's been developed by HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Limited.
46:38It's a joint venture between Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited and the Rajasthan government.
46:43The refinery is actually designed with a capacity of 9 million tonnes per annum,
46:49placing it amongst India's largest greenfield refinery cum petrochemical complex.
46:54It's a highly complex refinery.
46:59How?
46:59It can process heavier and more challenging crudes.
47:03It boosts efficiency and output.
47:05The refinery will process crude sourced from the Badmer Basin itself.
47:09So this is one of India's key onshore oil producing regions.
47:14That's very significant.
47:15By refining crude domestically, the project actually reduces dependence on imported fuels
47:20and strengthens India's energy security.
47:23And this is not just a refinery.
47:24It's also a petrochemical complex.
47:26It will produce key material like polypropylene and polyethylene
47:32essential for plastics, for packaging, for the manufacturing industry and packaging industry.
47:38Apart from that, it is expected to transform Western Rajasthan into a very major petrochemical hub.
47:45So was this systematically being targeted by hostile elements?
47:51Of course, it's still a matter of investigation and we are not speculating here.
47:56Aishwarya Patil, Dev Ankur Vadhavan and Sandeep Unnithan with me on this big story.
48:02Aishwarya Patil and Dev Ankur Vadhavan have been tracking the story very closely since the fire.
48:06Dev, police carried out an initial investigation.
48:09NIA has joined in.
48:11What have initial investigations indicated?
48:17Well, so far, Gaurav, there are multiple angles that are being probed.
48:20What the opposition in Rajasthan is claiming is that perhaps in a bid to expedite the entire preparation
48:26before the Prime Minister's visit, the expedition resulted in this kind of a mishap happening.
48:32And make no mistake, Gaurav, this could have been a massive tragedy which has been averted by the grace of
48:38God.
48:39Perhaps the only saving grace in this is that there has been no loss of life.
48:44But the visuals that have come across that have been sent from inside the refinery and from outside,
48:50the visuals clearly show the magnitude of the fire that happened.
48:54The National Investigation Agency has joined the probe
48:57and it will be investigating into the entire cause of the fire,
49:01whether it was sabotage, whether it was a safety issue,
49:05whether it was in a bid to expedite the preparation before the Prime Minister's visit,
49:09which led to this kind of fire happening.
49:11All of them will be investigated.
49:14And make no mistake, the probe will be coming out after a thorough investigation
49:19and it could perhaps lead to several of those responsible for…
49:22Sir, let me bring in Aishwarya into this conversation.
49:24Aishwarya, we are told HPCL is carrying out its own preliminary investigation.
49:29Do we have details of what their initial findings are?
49:34Well, HPCL did put out a statement according to that particular statement.
49:38They said that the fire was localized as far as the distillation unit is concerned.
49:43I'll get to what exactly it does.
49:45But so far, that was the only area that led to the fire.
49:51As far as the other units, the crude distillation unit, vacuum distillation unit,
49:55and other units of the CDU, which is more technical,
49:58but all of those were quickly isolated during the fire.
50:02In the statement, like you mentioned,
50:04it appeared that the leakage of hydrocarbons through one of the valves
50:10is what led the heat exchanger circuit that caused fire.
50:15As far as the crude distillation unit is concerned,
50:17this acts basically as a sorting system.
50:21And then finally, going through many processes, the product comes out.
50:25So that's the context as far as the distillation unit is concerned.
50:29And that's what HPCL said.
50:31Prima facie, they found out.
50:33They said, although internally and externally, both they have experts on board
50:39in order to investigate what really caused this fire.
50:43And the impact on the unit overall is still being assessed.
50:47And so, of course, like you mentioned,
50:49Prime Minister was about to visit today
50:51and inaugurate this particular refinery worth over 79,500 crores.
50:59That has been postponed so far.
51:01And they still have to ascertain what the real reason was behind all of this.
51:06So, so far it's been...
51:07Sandeep, is that timing?
51:09Yes, Sandeep, is the timing of the fire suspicious just before the Prime Minister's visit?
51:14And this was something huge for the country?
51:17Absolutely, Gaurav.
51:18And you know, we're looking at 2026 being one of the most critical years
51:22after the 1973 oil shock.
51:25Where the time when you have two conflict theatres
51:27where oil infrastructure is being relentlessly targeted.
51:31The Russia-Ukraine war.
51:32Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil refineries.
51:35And, of course, we've just seen in this 40-day war in West Asia where the United States,
51:41Israel and Iran have been targeting each other's, you know, oil facilities.
51:45So, at a time like this when oil is literally...
51:49Everyone's worried about their sources of oil and how they're going to refine it.
51:53A fire like this, you know, points to a number of, you know, possible reasons.
51:58Of course, the investigations will look into that.
52:00But the timing of this, of course, as you mentioned, is extremely suspicious, Gaurav.
52:04And they need to get it to the bottom of this if there was indeed some kind of sabotage behind
52:10this, Gaurav.
52:11Okay.
52:12I quickly want to cut across.
52:13Dev, I believe you have more information for us.
52:15Because there are some who are saying this is not a coincidence.
52:18It could well be calculated sabotage to derail a national symbol of self-reliance.
52:26Well, Gaurav, to add to what Sandeep said, you know, this refinery, which is in Pachpadra, Balotra,
52:32region of Rajasthan in the western areas, is also very close to border.
52:36Pakistan is on the other side of the border.
52:38And this refinery is not very far away from the border.
52:41And that also perhaps makes it very important strategically speaking.
52:46You would remember that during the course of Operation Sindur,
52:50Prime Minister Narendra Modi had visited Bikaner in a show of strength,
52:53in a show of support to our armed personnel who were fighting at the border.
52:57And that's also something which, you know, this was supposed to send out a clear signal
53:02that during this period of energy shortage when Iran and Israel have been at war,
53:09India is self-sufficient and the Prime Minister is trying to convey a message that
53:13we will be able to sail over this crisis situation.
53:18And perhaps this kind of an incident happening,
53:20several questions will be raised, Gaurav, which needs to be answered after a thorough investigation.
53:25Gaurav?
53:26Absolutely. And Aishwarya, Dev and Sandeep, many thanks for joining me.
53:29Our team will continue to track developments on the story very, very closely.
53:34That is all I have time for on India First this evening.
53:37Many thanks for watching.
53:38News and updates continue on India Today.
53:40Stay with us.
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