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Global energy markets face a significant shift as the United Arab Emirates announces its departure from OPEC and OPEC+ amid severe energy disruptions and a blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, challenging traditional oil production monopolies.
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00:01Good evening, you're watching India First. I'm Gaurav Savan. Big story coming in from West Asia.
00:08The United Arab Emirates, the UAE, has announced it is quitting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC and
00:19OPEC+.
00:20This would be a massive blow to the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries and Exporting Countries with, and of course,
00:30its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia.
00:33The United Arab Emirates has announced it will leave OPEC three days from now. That's on the 1st of May.
00:38It will no longer be a part of OPEC and this is a huge development that comes at a time
00:43when there already is turmoil in West Asia.
00:47There's a blockade at the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil supplies are in tailspin.
00:53The United Arab Emirates, long-standing OPEC member, its departure is likely to create massive disruption and it will weaken
01:01the grouping.
01:03This grouping is usually has, for very long, it's tried to show a united front.
01:09There have been internal disagreements. There have been internal tussles in OPEC member countries, but the West has often criticized
01:19it.
01:19A monopoly of OPEC in keeping oil prices high. How will this impact the world? We'll tell you more about
01:26it.
01:27UAE's Energy Minister, Suhail Muhammad al-Mazouri. He told Reuters news agency the decision was taken after a careful look
01:36at regional powers, energy strategies.
01:40And then there was a question that was put to him. Had the UAE either consulted or informed Saudi Arabia?
01:46The minister said UAE did not raise this issue with any other country.
01:51He said, and I quote, this is a policy decision. It has been done after a careful look at the
01:57current and future policies related to the levels of production.
02:02OPEC, Gulf producers, they've been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
02:08The Strait of Hormuz is a choke point. It's managed effectively right now.
02:14It's controlled effectively by Iran.
02:15Though Iran's on the northern side of it, Oman's on the southern side of it, a fifth of the world's
02:21crude oil and liquefied natural gas that passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
02:26But right now, it's choked.
02:29U.S. President Donald Trump, he's just reacted. He's just put out a message on Truth Social.
02:34President Donald Trump has said, Iran has just informed us that they are in a state of collapse.
02:41That's a big story. A big statement made by U.S. President Donald Trump.
02:46He says, Iran has informed the United States that Iran is in a state of collapse.
02:52They want us to open the Hormuz Strait as soon as possible.
02:55And they will try to figure out their leadership situation, which he believes they will be in a position to
03:03do so.
03:03Now, I'll get you more on all these developments.
03:07But first, on UAE's big announcement on OPEC, quitting OPEC.
03:12I want to quickly cut across to Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today.
03:16Siddharth, that's a huge development.
03:18This move by the United Arab Emirates.
03:21Your reading of the timing and on the impact.
03:24Well, this is the first fragmentation of order that has prevailed for well over 60 years.
03:31It directly impacts Saudi Arabia as the de facto ruler of the oil-producing world, the OPEC cartel.
03:39What it really means is that the UAE is now branching out with regards to its position in the world
03:45and not just be seen as yet another member of OPEC.
03:50It has multiple different consequences.
03:53But the biggest consequences for the UAE will be that it will now be free to ramp up its oil
04:00production.
04:00It will not be bound by OPEC member quotas.
04:05And the price fixation also that the cartel has been accused of having done many times in the past.
04:12So, it's the branching away of a significant oil producers from this OPEC cartel and its consequences will be felt
04:21in the days ahead.
04:23Gaurav?
04:23So, this clearly indicates and does it that UAE does not want to play second fiddle to Saudi Arabia.
04:31And if UAE is talking about increasing oil production,
04:34one, does that help break the OPEC monopoly that the world has often criticized, the cartelization, does it help break
04:42that?
04:42And as far as India-UAE relations are concerned, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval was there recently.
04:50Will this end up being advantage India?
04:52Well, clearly, it is advantage India.
04:56Why is that?
04:57This is not just a decision that is rooted in economics.
05:01It has perhaps lesser to do with oil pricing fundamentals than with the larger geostrategic, geosecurity world that we are
05:10seeing being reshaped.
05:12For decades, we saw the U.S. play a certain kind of role, particularly in West Asia, from the perspective
05:18of being the ultimate guarantor of security.
05:21We have seen that being blown away, just as the radars were blown away by Iranian projectiles.
05:28The second aspect is, as far as the Sunni-speaking world is concerned, and the OPEC cartel having many members,
05:37as we are not talking about OPEC+, which has non-Gulf countries as members, there is also a rupture
05:43that we have seen with regard to how to deal with the Shia-speaking Iran.
05:48And that has played out over the past seven, eight weeks, Gaurav, from a security point of view.
05:53And therefore, for India, what does it mean?
05:56We have now another partner to rely on, and it so happens that the UAE and India share a deep
06:05relationship.
06:06And I would go to the extent of saying perhaps a deeper relationship than we have with many other countries
06:12in West Asia.
06:13And therefore, more availability, better pricing, and more flexibility in dealing with, God forbid, any future arm-twisting that may
06:24happen with regard to crude oil supply
06:26and our multiple sources of supplies that we have developed over the years.
06:32So there are two questions, and let's take it one by one.
06:35This current energy disruption, clearly, all indications are this isn't short-term.
06:40There are fears oil production may be impacted, oil transportation already remains a key, you know, it's a tailspin.
06:48It's a huge challenge.
06:50So are there steps that India is taking to somehow manage the crisis currently and with an eye on the
06:59future?
07:00Well, absolutely.
07:02And look at what you just led this segment with, which is the overcapacity and surplus issue of storage that
07:12Iran is facing.
07:13Oil economics means that once an oil well is drilled deep in Mother Earth, it keeps on producing till it
07:19dries up.
07:20It's very difficult from a technical point of view to cap a well.
07:25If you cap a well, it's pretty much gone.
07:28And if you don't have enough storage, and if you are not able to store and disperse that oil,
07:34your entire oil supply chain comes under a shock.
07:39And oil production, which is directly in wells, becomes a huge issue.
07:43What Iran is now telling the world is that it is running out of storage.
07:48So it has two options to kill those wells.
07:51And if you kill the well, it's a very, very difficult exercise to bring it back.
07:57And many of our viewers would remember those visuals of how the wells in Kuwait were set to fire many
08:05years ago.
08:05Now let's come back to the point of the current disruption.
08:09The current time is sending out a clear signal to the world that you cannot be assured of supplies,
08:18just as you were never assured of what would happen to oil prices on a daily basis.
08:23And therefore, Gaurav, a new crude oil supply order is emerging out of the vestiges of this war.
08:30There is a fragile truce underway.
08:32If that truce were to convert into a permanent ceasefire, we would see some sort of relief on supplies and
08:39pricing.
08:40But the longer term realignments with regard to energy security are being redefined as we speak.
08:46And therefore, for India, this is a very, very significant development,
08:50just as we have seen what happened with Venezuela and its consequences for the rest of the world.
08:56And one final word, we will wait for the United States to react to this development
09:02because, Gaurav, I think in the U.S. statement, there will be more fine print to read.
09:08Because President Trump has always, in the past, he's also hit out at this cartelization
09:13or OPEC countries keeping oil prices high.
09:18From $60 a barrel that the world said is quite affordable to the current $111 a barrel,
09:24is there an apprehension that the prices could go even higher if the blockade continues?
09:30And does the UAE have, I mean, even the UAE does not have a magic bullet?
09:35It's unable to get its oil out.
09:37Should Iran start targeting the UAE once again?
09:40And in fact, that was UAE's big trouble that other OPEC countries did not stand with it.
09:44The manner in which Iran repeatedly targeted UAE, Siddharth.
09:48Gaurav, in the past eight weeks, we have seen that countries like India and others
09:53have paid much more than the index price that we keep talking about
09:58because spot prices have been much higher.
10:01So it's been on the high seas, a robbery of sorts.
10:05The highest bidder has managed to walk away.
10:08We spoke about the fact that there is a ceasefire in military terms.
10:13Both sides are not currently bombing out each other.
10:16But as far as the oil market is concerned, it is still in war zone.
10:21Oil supplies continue to remain blockaded.
10:24Who blocks whom doesn't matter.
10:26But as far as oil is concerned, it is still in as precarious a situation as it was before the
10:33ceasefire.
10:34So let's not confuse the ceasefire in military terms with the actual war that is happening
10:40as far as crude oil supplies are concerned.
10:42And in some ways, the situation has worsened.
10:45And therefore, it is absolutely right to say that the long-term consequence, Gaurav,
10:53of this realignment that we are seeing in security terms in West Asia
10:58will be the reordering of the global crude oil energy map.
11:03And one quick point, Gaurav, finally, I think it will hasten the shift towards
11:09renewable, non-hydrocarbon-based energy in the future.
11:13India has been trying really hard on that.
11:15And I hope we'll be able to do much better in the days ahead.
11:19Siddharth, keep tracking that story.
11:20I will come back to you for more.
11:22There may be a fragile ceasefire in place in West Asia,
11:26but the oil market remains on fire.
11:29And is there more bad news in store?
11:31The US blockade is actually beginning to squeeze Iran.
11:35It's beginning to hurt Iran where it actually hurts the most.
11:39And that's the oil lifeline.
11:41That, in a way, is the American assessment.
11:44Iran is now staring at a rapidly shrinking storage window.
11:49Estimates suggest that the country has between 12 and 22 days of storage capacity left
11:55as it continues to produce more oil than it can export.
11:59Its tankers are laden with oil, but they're unable to leave the Strait of Hormuz
12:04because of the American blockade.
12:06Now, Iran's key energy oil hub, that's the Khark Island,
12:10that's nearly and it's nearing full capacity.
12:13So let's break this down.
12:14Iran's total storage capacity, according to reports,
12:18stands between 90 to 95 million barrels.
12:21Out of this, nearly 49 million barrels.
12:24It's filled.
12:26Just about 41 to 46 million barrels space remains.
12:30Now, there is a buffer, but that buffer is fast running out, according to analysts.
12:36So it's a sign of mounting pressure.
12:38Iran, perhaps, is under pressure, and how do you know that?
12:42Iran is now reviving its aging infrastructure.
12:45For example, a 30-year-old tanker, it was brought back for use as a floating storage unit.
12:51It was actually brought in.
12:53It's non-operational.
12:55It's a decommissioned tanker.
12:56It was a part of a ghost fleet ship, but it was still brought in.
13:00Now, this vessel can store up to 2 million barrels of crude, which is roughly two days' worth of excess
13:07production.
13:07But that is how desperate Iran is right now.
13:10What are Iran's options as this crunch, it deepens?
13:15The first option, it's the most straightforward.
13:19Can it cut production?
13:21In reality, it's actually the most difficult one.
13:24Oil wells cannot simply be switched off.
13:27Shutting production risks damaging the oil wells.
13:32It reduces their long-term output.
13:34Restarting operations could take months, maybe even longer, and requires massive investment.
13:41The second option is to use these empty tankers as offshore storage.
13:45Iran has done this even before.
13:46It's parking super tankers initially on the high seas.
13:51Now, in the Persian Gulf, it's using them as floating storage units.
13:55But then that also comes with finite capacity.
13:59It has risks, including higher costs, limited availability of vessels, and the constant threat of monitoring and interception amidst this
14:05heightened tensions.
14:07The third option is to expand the floating storage even further, effectively turning large parts of its tanker fleet into
14:13domestic storage hubs.
14:14Now, this can buy Iran sometime, but it's only a temporary fix.
14:19Cannot match the scale of continuous oil production.
14:22And then, of course, comes the fourth, the most unconventional and the most difficult option.
14:27And that's moving this oil either through that railway network to China,
14:32but the volume goes down, or trying to break through the blockade using its small gun boards to challenge the
14:39might of the US Navy.
14:40Perhaps it may be done, in principle, on ground or in the high seas, extremely difficult.
14:47So, with the sea routes under pressure, Iran is now exploring the land-based alternatives to keep exports alive.
14:53A trickle, but at least the system will remain lubricated, if I may.
14:57So, transporting crude by rail permits Tehran to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and avoid the direct American choke point.
15:04But this route is far less efficient than shipping by tankers and significantly more expensive and extremely limited in scale.
15:15Rail transport requires specialised infrastructure, multiple transfers and it cannot handle even a fraction of the volumes that sea trade
15:23can handle.
15:24In other words, it may help Iran move some oil, but not enough to offset the losses from the restricted
15:30sea trade.
15:30Then, the other option that we hinted at is cutting down production.
15:35It was done once in the past and those oil wells, they're all but lost.
15:40Shutting down oil production is complex, often irreversible.
15:44It risks permanent damage to the wells, potential loss in output.
15:48And restarting production can take months and significant investment.
15:53Often, experts say it's easier to drill a new well than to revive an old well.
16:00Which means Iran now is left balancing, you know, it's on a tightrope.
16:05It has very few options how to keep the oil flowing, run out of space, storage space or negotiate with
16:13the Americans.
16:14And that's exactly what the United States wants.
16:16A lot of developments and fast-paced developments.
16:20The UAE has just announced it's quitting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC.
16:25The Strait of Hormuz remains shut.
16:28US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Iran has used the Strait of Hormuz as an economic nuclear weapon
16:35against the world.
16:37The US, of course, has ruled out any deal with Iran that excludes Tehran's nuclear programme.
16:42And now, there are reports of a fourth aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Eisenhower, being dispatched to the area
16:50of responsibility of the US Central Command.
16:53So, is the US building up for round two of Operation Epic Fury?
16:58Or is this just a part of the gunboat diplomacy, quite like Ottawa and Bismarck earlier?
17:05Joining me on this special broadcast is Bill Emmett.
17:08Bill Emmett is former Editor-in-Chief of The Economist and author of The Fate of the West, The Battle
17:14to Save the World's Most Successful Political Idea.
17:18Mr. Emmett, welcome.
17:20Your reading of UAE's announcement that it is leaving OPEC.
17:24What do you make of the timing and what does this mean, sir?
17:31Well, it's first of all quite a historic decision.
17:35OPEC has been there, as far as I know, all my life, ever since the 1973 oil crisis.
17:41So, it takes us right back to the beginning of oil crises and of the exertion of power by oil
17:48producers in the Gulf.
17:52So, this is a radical break from a system of trying to set the oil price.
18:00If they sustain this decision, which, of course, can never be taken for granted, but if they sustain this position,
18:06then I think once the Straits of Hormuz are opened, once the Iran war is finished,
18:12and of course, we have no idea when these events will happen, once we do, then the reality of the
18:19world,
18:19which is actually we have a surplus of fossil fuel and a surplus of energy, we do not have a
18:25shortage, will reassert itself.
18:28And we should get quite a substantial fall in oil prices if producers respond in the logical way to the
18:35breakup of OPEC, which is to raise their production.
18:39So, you're looking at the silver lining, oil prices may come down.
18:43UAE has been rather upset.
18:45Not enough was done to protect it or even stand by it when Iran systematically and specifically targeted the UAE.
18:53What would be the impact of UAE quitting OPEC on the importance of the regional grouping?
19:00And the West has often argued that this is a cartel that has kept oil prices high.
19:05Okay.
19:08Well, I think that divisions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been well documented.
19:14They've had serious divisions before, particularly over the war in Yemen.
19:19They are rivals for regional leadership, regional initiatives.
19:26So, I think that this reinforces that.
19:30What does it do to the relationship between the UAE and the United States seems to me to be a
19:36harder question to answer?
19:39Most likely, it will be in the interests of Donald Trump, having the prospect of a fall in oil prices,
19:47perhaps in time even for mid-term elections in November.
19:50Although, that won't be very good news for American oil producers, all of whom, particularly in the shale sector, have
19:59a threshold price of between $60 and $70 a barrel.
20:03If oil falls below that, then they start to lose money.
20:06So, America, as the world's largest oil exporter, now actually has an interest in high oil prices if consumers don't
20:15like it.
20:17The world is currently in turmoil.
20:20Can we then expect oil prices to reduce substantially and the era of OPEC monopoly?
20:27Is that over, in your view, in times to come?
20:30So, you know, the U.S. is a huge exporter.
20:34It's also exporting Venezuela oil.
20:37UAE independently now comes forward, breaking away from OPEC?
20:43Well, I think that this is a light at the end of the tunnel, as far as the world's concerned.
20:50This is much less important in any dimension than the immediate prospect for an escalation of the war, for a
20:59resumption of war.
21:00Questions about security and what are the rules being played in the seeking of a settlement by China, by Pakistan,
21:12even by Russia and by the United States.
21:14These are the big geopolitical questions.
21:17But for all our countries, whether it be India or the United Kingdom or my friends in Japan,
21:22the feeling that this could be a temporary energy shock rather than something with long-term ramifications like the one
21:32in N-73 is, I think, a very pleasing thought.
21:36It certainly will make finance ministers and energy ministers feel a little bit more relaxed than they did yesterday.
21:46What is your assessment of Marco Rubio saying that Iran has used the state of Hormuz as an economic nuclear
21:54weapon?
21:55And is the U.S. blockade an effective countermeasure for Iran to be under pressure to lift the blockade and
22:03not demand $2 million per passage?
22:08I think that essentially Iran has used a military or strategic weapon that it always had, but had previously felt
22:17it was difficult to actually enforce.
22:19They've used it very successfully to put the United States on the back foot.
22:24The United States had to respond by putting their counter-blockade.
22:27But in practice, Iran had the cards, had shown that it has leverage, and Iran, thanks to support from China,
22:38thanks to its continued ability to make income, even within the limits of its already damaged economy, mean that probably
22:48time is on its side.
22:49So I think I'm very much in agreement with the Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Metz, who said yesterday that this
22:59whole event has been a humiliation for the United States, and that Iran now has taken the initiative.
23:06Yes, we are waiting to see whether negotiations can be resumed.
23:11Those negotiations are essentially being done by China through the guise of its allied Pakistan.
23:19That also cannot be entirely welcome from an American point of view.
23:24So I'll come to the role of China, Russia, and Pakistan as negotiators or mediators in just a moment.
23:32But staying on the issue of the United States, U.S. perceives those in power in Iran, in Marco Rubio's
23:38words, having an apocalyptic vision of the future.
23:42Iran says enrichment of uranium is its right, but they have no desire to make a nuclear bomb.
23:48Iran refuses to hand over, or as of now, even talk about the enriched uranium with the United States.
23:54What's the way forward? How do you find middle ground here?
24:01Well, I think the way forward is going to be a big step backward to the Iran nuclear deal, the
24:09so-called JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
24:13It was agreed in 2015 between the permanent five members of the Security Council, including the United States and Iran.
24:21It will be a containment of the nuclear program with intense verification by the International Atomic Energy Authority.
24:30So we will be back to 2018, where Donald Trump really started this whole process by withdrawing America from the
24:41Iran nuclear deal,
24:42simply on the grounds that it had been negotiated by his hated predecessor, Barack Obama.
24:47So, of course, Iran was a bit weaker than it was then, and the big new element probably was that
24:56China will probably play an active role in supervising the Iranian nuclear program
25:02and seeking to take some responsibility and even accepting some responsibility for policing Iran's nuclear program
25:13and making sure that it is not resuming an ambition to develop a nuclear weapon.
25:20So, Bill Emmett, drawing from your long experience with great past signaling, how much influence do countries like Russia,
25:29how much influence does Moscow actually have over the endgame?
25:33And can a Russia-brokered formula or a China-brokered formula emerge as a face-saver here?
25:44Well, I think especially China can certainly provide a face-saving exit for the United States.
25:52Russia is more of a troublemaker in this circumstance.
25:56I mean, Russia providing some support militarily to Iran, but I don't think it can really broker any kind of
26:03deal.
26:04But China can.
26:05China can because it has the resources.
26:07China can because it has the friends in Pakistan, open users and patients,
26:13and China because it's adjacent, more adjacent to Iran.
26:17It can take on the ability, both as Iran's biggest customer for oil,
26:25but also as the most important and most resourceful friend of seeking to guide the future path of this regime.
26:35I don't know whether Marco Rubio is right in calling it apocalyptic.
26:40Certainly, the ideology of the theocrats who have been running Iran since 1979 has often taken apocalyptic form,
26:49but so does the ideology and the words of Donald Trump, unfortunately, quite often.
26:57So, it's unclear how seriously to take it.
27:01So, the US assessment is the blockade of the state of Hormuz will put pressure on Iran and bring it
27:09to the talks table and to accept America's demands.
27:13Now, Kepler's assessment is with the blockade in place, Iran's storage capacity may run out by mid-May.
27:21It has about 12 to 22 days of storage, according to different reports.
27:25Will that, in your view, compel Iran to seek a settlement or will it embolden Iran to perhaps try and
27:33break through the US blockade?
27:38I think it's pretty unlikely that Iran will try to take or break through militarily in this example.
27:45It might seek to put pressure on the United States by other methods,
27:49such as attacking contamination parts in the region,
27:53trying to put pressure, view pressure from the UAE or from some of the other Gulf states on the United
27:58States.
27:59But I don't think that they will try to take on the US Navy head-on, militarily.
28:05So, whether the oil blockade really squeezes Iran in the way that Kepler has said, it's not clear.
28:15That depends a lot on what sort of support it can get from China and whether or not it can
28:21succeed,
28:21as it has been in maintaining some oil exports, which it has been, despite the blockade of the state of
28:30Hormuz.
28:31That remains to be clear.
28:34But so far, the conversation regarding the build-up of US forces in the region was about three aircraft carrier
28:40strike groups being there.
28:42Now, there is talk of the fourth aircraft carrier strike group,
28:45the USS Eisenhower, being dispatched to the Central Command area of responsibility.
28:50Now, such a large build-up of troops and ships and war-like stores.
28:57Is this only about Bismarck-style gunboat diplomacy?
29:01Or does this indicate that the US intends to use this lethal force against Iran should negotiations not succeed?
29:12To be honest, I rather think that the US already has enough lethal force available in the Navy,
29:21on the Navy, naval ships in the region, and from its bases in Europe,
29:27that if it wished to really pound Iran again through the air,
29:31it could do.
29:32So I don't believe that this further aircraft carrier is really there for directly military purposes.
29:42I think it's symbolic.
29:43I think it's tempting to suggest that it is able to convict Iran and block it in,
29:52and it is trying to intimidate Iran.
29:55Okay.
29:56Okay.
29:57So do you see this war escalate,
30:00or can the ceasefire still be extended to find a solution?
30:04Because Iran has warned if one of its assets are targeted,
30:10it will target four in the region,
30:12and that will have a catastrophic effect,
30:15not just on the region, but perhaps the world.
30:23Well, my base scenario is that the scheduled summit between Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping
30:32in Beijing on May the 14th and 15th provides the essential framework for what we're going to see.
30:39I cannot imagine ahead of that summit that Epic Fury 2.0 will be unleashed by the Americans,
30:50especially since the Americans are very well aware Pakistanis are acting essentially as proxies for China
30:57in seeking to bring about negotiation.
31:00So I think both sides would understand that that was a very direct confrontation between America and China
31:08if there was to be Epic Fury 2.0,
31:11and I don't see Donald Trump in the mood to do that ahead of the summit that he's going to
31:17have with Xi Jinping.
31:19I think most likely we will see back-channel negotiation between now and then,
31:24which is the next two and a half weeks essentially,
31:27and that something will culminate in that summit in Beijing,
31:33and Trump and Xi Jinping will both speak to make an announcement at that summit in Beijing
31:41of some sort of, I don't say a peace settlement,
31:45but a path to a resolution of the conflict in Iran.
31:52Okay, so first Islamabad, then Moscow, and now Beijing.
31:58Will the path for a resolution emerge from Beijing?
32:02We'll keep an eye on that.
32:03Bill Emmett, for joining me here on India Today, sir, many thanks.
32:08I now want to quickly cut across to Tehran.
32:10Ali Salehan is Senior Researcher and Head of International Relations
32:14at the Governance and Policy Think Tank, who joins us from Tehran.
32:19Sir, welcome.
32:20The UAE has just announced it is leaving OPEC.
32:24How does Iran assess this development?
32:32Yeah, we can see that after what Trump decided to initiate a war against the internet
32:42based on only, you know, its personal beliefs and dictation of the Israel,
32:48we can see there are lots of unrest happening within the region,
32:53not only, you know, in the geopolitical terms, but also in the geopolitical terms.
32:59We can see the energy prices, the different things that passed through a Strait of Hormuz,
33:06and all this kind of unrest would reflect it in also some kind of institution,
33:11just like OPEC, OPEC+, and everything just like that.
33:16Countries try to found their chance, other than a kind of multilateral relation,
33:23or more based on the bilateral relation.
33:27President Trump has just said Iran has informed the United States
33:31that it is in a state of collapse.
33:35Iran has urgently requested that Strait of Hormuz be opened as soon as possible,
33:40and it has said that it is trying to sort out its leadership situation,
33:46or crisis, or words to that effect.
33:47How credible is the American President's assessment
33:50that Iran is in a state of collapse?
33:53Iran is facing this pressure of this naval blockade,
33:57and increasingly has storage constraints.
34:01So Iran is seeking a solution.
34:06I think not only Iranians, but also the whole people of this earth
34:11and global mankind try to, you know, feel and understand
34:17the psychopathic tweets and tweets, you know, social,
34:22of the person who is now in Oval Office, who is in charge.
34:25He, every day, claims different and odd things,
34:30from regime change in Iran, to, you know,
34:34killing of more than thousands of people of Iran
34:38during some demonstration.
34:41Also, he is claiming that Iran, for example,
34:46Iran's military capabilities are neutralized.
34:49Because all of them are odd.
34:51Actually, when you can see the real field,
34:54Iran has its ability to control the Strait of Hormuz,
34:58blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
35:00We know that Iran is the response to the unlawful attack,
35:04the unprovoked attack of Israel and the United States,
35:08actually making a smart management passage
35:12through the Strait of Hormuz.
35:15Iran also, I think, due to, as I just mentioned earlier,
35:20have different options to found and survive
35:24this kind of situation.
35:25We know that the current situation is very similar
35:28to the war of India-Uranz.
35:30We know that Iran is a resilient country
35:32that faced and survived after more than 25 years
35:37of unlawful sanctions in different will.
35:42Iran tried to found its option,
35:44thanks to its geography,
35:45thanks to its national dignity
35:48and the phenomena just like...
35:50Sir, all those points are very well taken.
35:53Very well taken.
35:54I want to know your assessment of Kepler estimates
35:59that Iran has between 12 days and 22 days
36:03of oil storage capacity that still remains.
36:08After that, Iran does not have oil storage capacity
36:11if its oil is unable to leave the Strait of Hormuz.
36:14Onshore stocks, they've reached 49 million barrels.
36:17Total capacity is between 86 and 90 million barrels,
36:21with the effective usable space capacity
36:24closer to 8 to 10 million barrels.
36:26Now, these are all statistics.
36:27You can tell us better.
36:29How accurate is this assessment?
36:31And because of this,
36:32would Iran be desperate?
36:34It wouldn't want to shut down its oil wells.
36:36Would it be desperate to find a solution?
36:41I just mentioned,
36:42I'm not personally a technician
36:44or the expert of the oil,
36:46but I just asked from the multiple source,
36:49official and non-official one,
36:51about the situation of the oil reserve capacity
36:57to decrease the oil production.
37:00All of them,
37:03there is some kind of technical consensus in Iran
37:07that there is no problem for us
37:09to reduce the oil volume
37:13or capacity production.
37:15Of course,
37:17we know that Iran,
37:18before the start of the war,
37:20have more than based on different reports
37:22from 90 million to 150 million barrels,
37:29they have oil in the sea.
37:33Therefore,
37:34based on our information,
37:36our understanding,
37:37I just checked,
37:37as I mentioned,
37:38with the different officials
37:39and non-official experts,
37:42there would be no problem,
37:43just because,
37:44just like I mentioned,
37:45that we have,
37:46we face this kind of situation
37:48during the COVID-19
37:49and the first term
37:50of maximum pressure against Iran.
37:52Therefore,
37:53technically,
37:55we won't,
37:56it seems that
37:57it wouldn't be
37:58any significant problem.
38:00Also,
38:00where it seems,
38:02you know,
38:02this kind of signaling
38:03that,
38:05please open the
38:06straight of Hormuz,
38:08we can find
38:08any kind of
38:11political atmosphere,
38:13political effortless
38:14or the political officials
38:16who are actually following
38:17these kind of claims.
38:19Therefore,
38:20for President Joss,
38:21let me,
38:22that as a non-official
38:23think tanker
38:24following this kind of claims,
38:26it seems so odd.
38:28It seems that
38:29actual Trump
38:30had made decision
38:31or signaling
38:32based on watching Fox News,
38:34not the reality in a film.
38:36Okay,
38:37so you're saying
38:38it's more wishful thinking
38:39on the parts of the United States,
38:41Ali Salehan,
38:42for joining me here,
38:43live on India today
38:44from Tehran.
38:45So many thanks.
38:48I now want to shift focus
38:50to the big story,
38:51domestically in India.
38:53On the eve of the second phase
38:55of elections in Bengal,
38:56the Mamata Banerjee government
38:58has got a strong rebuke
38:59from the Calcutta High Court
39:01for failing to hand over land
39:02to the Border Security Force
39:04for border fencing.
39:05The court had directed
39:07the state government
39:07to give 127 kilometers of land
39:10already acquired or purchased
39:12for which compensation
39:13had been received
39:14by the state government
39:15from the center
39:15to the Border Security Force
39:17by the 31st of March.
39:18But the Thirmul Congress government,
39:20the TMC government,
39:21did not comply with this order.
39:23They have so far handed over
39:25only 8 kilometers
39:27of the 127 kilometers.
39:30Now,
39:31during a hearing,
39:32the High Court
39:32directed the state government
39:34to file a detailed affidavit
39:35within two weeks
39:36informing it
39:36of the steps taken
39:37to comply
39:38with the January 27 order.
39:40It also came down heavily
39:42on the state government
39:43saying,
39:44what is surprising
39:45and shocking
39:46is that in a matter
39:48of national importance,
39:49the respondent state
39:51has not thought it proper
39:52to file their report
39:54on an affidavit.
39:56The High Court
39:56then went on to say,
39:58a sketchy
39:59and evasive report
40:00has been filed
40:01which does not disclose
40:03dates and place-wise
40:04as to what action
40:06has been taken
40:07for handing over the land
40:08after passing of the order
40:10of this court
40:11on the 27th of January,
40:142026.
40:15We deprecate
40:17the practice of filing
40:18such an evasive
40:20and sketchy report.
40:22Apart from directing
40:23the Thirmul Congress government
40:24to file an affidavit,
40:26within two weeks,
40:27the court also imposed
40:28a cost of 25,000 rupees
40:31on the officer
40:32who filed the report.
40:33Incidentally,
40:34this money is to be paid
40:35from his pocket
40:37for non-compliance
40:39of the earlier court order.
40:41The issue of border fencing
40:43has been a political hot potato
40:45even in the run-up
40:47to these crucial elections.
40:48On the 27th of March,
40:502025,
40:51Union Home Minister
40:52Amit Shah
40:53on the floor of the House
40:55in the Lok Sabha
40:56said nearly 450 kilometers
40:58of border with Bangladesh
40:59has not been fenced
41:01in Bengal,
41:02which he blamed
41:04was on appeasement politics
41:06of the Thirmul Congress government.
41:09He claims
41:10that was to facilitate
41:11infiltrators.
41:12As Amit Shah said,
41:14despite 10 letters
41:15that he had written,
41:17despite seven meetings
41:19of the Union Home Secretary
41:20with the Chief Secretary,
41:22the Mamata Banerjee government
41:23in Bengal
41:24had stalled
41:25land acquisition process
41:26for fencing
41:27along the India-Bangladesh border.
41:29The Home Minister
41:30then claimed
41:31whenever the BSF
41:33undertook fencing work,
41:35he claimed
41:35the cadre
41:36of the Thirmul Congress
41:37obstructed construction
41:39and they resorted
41:41to sloganeering
41:42and sometimes
41:43use of force.
41:44He leveled
41:45similar allegations
41:46that the Mamata Banerjee government
41:47in the run-up
41:48to elections
41:48promised to give
41:49600 acres of land
41:51to BSF
41:51within 45 days
41:53of formation
41:53of their government,
41:55but the TMC
41:56rejected
41:57these allegations.
41:58Mamata Banerjee
41:59on multiple occasions
42:00has said
42:01that her government
42:02had no objection
42:02whatsoever
42:03in providing land
42:05for border fencing
42:06but insisted
42:06the centre
42:07must first
42:09roll back
42:09what she termed
42:11was the
42:11arbitrary decision
42:13to expand
42:13BSF's jurisdiction
42:15from 15 kilometres
42:17to 50 kilometres.
42:20I quickly now
42:22want to cut across
42:23to India Today's
42:24Jeetendra Bahadur Singh
42:26who joins us
42:27with the latest
42:28on this development.
42:30Jeetendra,
42:31आप लगातार
42:32Ground Zero
42:32से भी
42:33इस ख़वर को
42:34cover कर चुके हैं
42:35कि किस तरह
42:36बंगाल में
42:37fencing को लेकर
42:38समस्या थी?
42:40ग्रह मंत्री
42:40इस पर
42:41उनका क्या मत है?
42:42ग्रह मंत्राले का
42:43इसका पर क्या मत है?
42:44और आज जो
42:45अदालत ने कहा
42:46उसको
42:46उस परिपेक्ष में
42:47विस्तार से बताईए.
42:49और देखें,
42:50गौरो कोर्ट की तरफ से
42:52कुलकाता हाई कोर्ट
42:52ने एक बहुत
42:53महात्पूर्ट टिपड़ी किया है
42:55जिसमें उनके द्वारा
42:56ये कहा गया
42:56कि 127 किलोमीटर
42:59जो वहाँ पर
43:00जमीन देने की बात
43:02ये कही गई थी.
43:03उसमें से सिर्फ और से
43:03पाठ किलोमीटर ही
43:05जमीन दिया गया.
43:06ये सबसे बड़ी पिपड़ी है
43:07और ये कहा गया
43:09क्योंकि
43:10पहले भी
43:10केंद्री ग्री मंत्राले
43:12के द्वारा
43:12इसके साथ
43:14केंद्री ग्री मंत्री
43:15ने इसको लेड़ा
43:18उठाया गया है
43:19कि बॉर्डर फेंसिंग
43:21कई इलाके ऐसे हैं
43:22भारत बांगलादेश बॉर्डर
43:24जो कि पश्चिम बंगाल से जोड़ते हैं
43:25वहाँ पर बॉर्डर फेंसिंग
43:27ना होने की वज़े से
43:28घुस्पैट बहुत जादा होती है
43:29इसको लेकर के
43:30B.S.F. ने भी कई बार
43:31केंडरी मंतराले को
43:32चिठी लिखी और उसी चिठी के आधार पर
43:34जो है केंडरी मंतराले ने अक्षिन लिया
43:36और दस बार हम तो ये कह सकते हैं
43:39कि केंडरी मंतरी कुद
43:40अमिशा ने चिठी लिखा था
43:42Thank you very much.
44:19Thank you very much.
44:47Thank you very much.
45:17Thank you very much.
50:46First up next time.
50:50The motive remains under investigation.
50:52The police indicate a possible religious angle.
50:56Now imagine the suspected attacker is well-educated,
51:02has parents living overseas.
51:04He himself was living overseas.
51:06But look at this mindset.
51:08And where was he radicalised?
51:10That's a matter of investigation.
51:12We get you more in this report.
51:15A knife and alleged ISIS-inspired radicalisation
51:19and hatred towards non-Muslims.
51:23All of these led to the stabbing of two security guards
51:26by Zayb Ansari in Mumbai's Meera Road,
51:28a possible Pahlkam-like attack that has shocked the nation.
51:34Disturbing visuals now emerging from the Meera Road attack,
51:37the accused Zayb Ansari is seen on camera,
51:40knife in hand, attacking security guards.
51:43The video shows him swinging the weapon,
51:45even chasing one of the guards during the assault.
51:50It was at 4 a.m. on April 27th,
51:53when attacker Zayb Ansari approached security guards
51:55Rajkumar Mishra and Subrata Ramesh Sen,
51:58who were on duty at an under-construction building.
52:01Zayb asked for their names and religion
52:03and then asked them to recite the Kalma.
52:06The guards couldn't recite the Kalma,
52:08following which the accused stabbed both of them,
52:11leaving them grievously injured.
52:14Zayb fled the crime scene soon after.
52:17The police identified him from CCTV images
52:20and arrested him within 90 minutes of the crime.
52:25Right now, the investigation agency
52:27are not ruling out any angle.
52:30They are investigating every possible angle
52:33which is coming in their way during this investigation.
52:37Now, this probe has been taken over
52:38by the Maharashtra ATS anti-terrorist squad.
52:41And now, they will further investigate this case.
52:46The ATS is probing the incident
52:48and has sealed the accuser's house.
52:51Zayb Jumir Ansari was a coaching teacher.
52:54He was taking classes online of maths and chemistry.
52:57But from the past two months,
52:58his classes were closed
53:00and he was not able to earn a single penny.
53:04Due to which, a landlord has asked him
53:06to vacate this house.
53:07As we are outside this house right now
53:10and this house is sealed.
53:11India today has learned that the accuser was born
53:14in Mumbai's Kurla area.
53:16He studied in the United States until 2019
53:19and returned to India the same year.
53:21He allegedly got radicalized
53:23after watching ISIS-related videos regularly.
53:26Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis
53:28cited jihad as the reason behind the attack
53:30and promised strict action.
53:34Jihad is now on the attack.
53:44The enemy's
53:46foreign
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