00:01India's energy security, the maritime sea lanes of communication, how will they be kept open and is diplomacy the best
00:09way forward or does this war, can it escalate even further?
00:14I have the finest voices joining me on the show, Vice Admiral Shekhar Sina is former Flag Officer Commanding-in
00:19-Chief, Indian Navy's Western Naval Command, Siddharth Zarabi's Managing Editor, Business Today and Hadi Ellis is a geopolitical analyst joining
00:27us on the show.
00:28Gentlemen, welcome Siddharth, let's begin with the status check, these ships have arrived, 22 ships still remain there, what about
00:38India's energy security needs and the safe recovery of those ships, how challenging is that Siddharth?
00:45Very clearly, Gaurav, it is one of the finest moments for recent Indian diplomacy that we managed to get these
00:53two tankers on the way, one has already arrived.
00:56Why has that happened? Clearly, in such a difficult time, the fact that we were able to get the Iranians
01:04to let Indian flagged carriers to go through, and these are very, very large ships, is very significant.
01:11And according to all analysts, this gives us hope that the other ships that are stuck, 22 by one estimate,
01:21will in the near future also find a similar situation, a similar waiver and come.
01:27Is there a blanket permission? No. As per sources that we have been speaking to, it will virtually be vessel
01:35to vessel.
01:36But the beginning is great, and it means that absolute choke is now being eased a bit.
01:43But what is this in real terms? What is arriving in terms of gas is perhaps just one and a
01:50half days of supply.
01:51Just as the fact that 130 million barrels of Russian oil, sanctioned Russian oil, which was at sea, and you
01:59will remember the United States making a big sort of noise about it,
02:03that they have given a 30-day waiver on sanctions for purchase of that.
02:08That is just one and a half days of global supply.
02:14So, the quantities are not what we would ideally want or require, but the fact that the situation has eased
02:25and the tap has opened a bit,
02:27even if it is just a few drops or a trickle, I think is very good.
02:32On the other hand, what is also crucial is our diversification of crude oil and gas supplies.
02:39And on that, again, a lot of work is happening. I believe in the next few days, we will hear
02:44about further enhancement of supplies from other sources.
02:49Interesting. Admiral Sanaa, we were told Indian Navy ships escorted the tanker back.
02:54Would they have crossed the Strait of Hormuz? Would it be in the Arabian Sea?
02:59And is this more symbolic or is that a very big message that is being sent out?
03:05Thank you for getting me on your show, Gaurav. Always a pleasure.
03:08You see, the Indian Navy ships have been around the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman for quite
03:15some time now,
03:16waiting for final instructions or final clearance from the MEA.
03:21Now, these tankers have actually come out of the Strait of Hormuz after the clearance of MEA.
03:28There was absolutely no problem.
03:30The moment it came into the Gulf of Oman, which is the adjacent Gulf, immediately after the Strait of Hormuz,
03:39it has been escorted by our warships to their various ports.
03:42And it will continue.
03:43A number of warships are in the area so that we don't get delayed.
03:47The moment our tanker comes out of the Strait of Hormuz, then we escort them.
03:54The main issue is that we do not know whether the Strait, the mouth of the Strait, is it mined,
04:00not mined, or if it is only declared it is mined, actually not mined.
04:05That complicates the naval tasking even further.
04:08So I would think that it's a good diplomatic initiative, and I hope that it continues, as you said yourself,
04:16that there are 22 ships there, and they will all have to be escorted.
04:19Why is escort required?
04:20In case by some error, by some miscalculation, some of the missiles have fired on these tankers, they can be
04:29engaged by the air defense system of our warships.
04:32So it is basically a protection against the, you know, mistaken attack orтАФbecause, you know, right now theтАФI will say
04:43that, you know, IRGC is in a little bit of autonomous control,
04:48because the closed cabinet, the inner cabinet of the Ayatollah may or may not have been formed yet, because, you
04:56know, various news emulating.
04:57In that case, the IRGC would not actually take orders from the Iranian government, though they will abide by what
05:06is advised to them.
05:07So that is what is happening.
05:09But there will be some trigger-happy people who will, you know, launch a missile, they will see one target,
05:13the Chinese will give them information of the target, maybe the Russians will give it.
05:17And, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, some of them make a mistake of firing at some
05:25ships which are theтАФ
05:26It's a very, very volatile situation in these very dangerous waters.
05:32Hadi Ellis, your reading of the situation right now when President Donald Trump expects navies to come and contribute,
05:41the lukewarm response or rather cold response from NATO allies, G7 countries and others, what do youтАФwhat is your reading
05:49of that?
05:51Actually, Iran already attacked Cyprus.
05:54There was a British base.
05:56So, besides USA, Britain is also one of the main important NATO members.
06:04So if Britain damaged somehow in the region because they haveтАФin Iraq, they are in Syria, they are in Saudi
06:10Arabia.
06:12So NATO's Article 5 could be initiated, so it could become a NATO issue.
06:17But as far as I see, Spain, Italy, France, and a few other countries, except Germany, that they are very
06:24cautious, very skeptic how to evaluate, how to protect themselves.
06:29They don't want to offend USA, but they don't want to say something that's totally anti-war position in Iran.
06:35Iran is a global headache, and now USA wants India, China, Russia in a global re-alliance of their forces.
06:46Now, India and China will focus on Russia for their natural gas and oil supplies.
06:52They are not going to be supplied onтАФrelied on Iran anymore.
06:56And Iran is not only blocking itself, it's blocking Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi, and other Persian Gulf nations.
07:06So that's 20 percent of the oil supply.
07:09So the 80 percent oil supply countries like Russia will benefit a lot from this.
07:14So they are rearranging global alliances to eliminate Iranian threat or Iranian problems.
07:21What I see at the end of this war, Iran will be divided in two, just like Vietnam or Korea
07:27or Yemen.
07:28There will be eastern Iran, western Iran, or there will be northern Iran and southern Iran.
07:33Maybe Americans believe in air bombardment will take maybe six weeks, so they are expecting collapse of the regime.
07:43Then someone from military that I have just pointed out this issue before, to come out and do a coup
07:50d'etat, to take over the regime from the Ayatollah and finish this war.
07:55The longer the war goes, the possibility of Iran divided in two will be stronger.
08:00And Iran in two is better for India, better for China, better for Europe, and better for the USA.
08:06Iran will not recover its own nuclear industry facilities and cannot be a threat to Israel anymore.
08:15Many would argue that could well be wishful thinking that Iran may split into two.
08:22Admirals Sina, Iran's thinking, and when you speak to analysts in Iran, they believe the longer this war lasts,
08:31more pain the United States would be in, more pain the world would be in, because of rising oil prices
08:39or energy prices, oil and gas.
08:41And that is where US would be under pressure to seek an off-ramp.
08:44You are reading, Admiral Sina.
08:49You are on mute, sir.
08:51Am I?
08:52Yeah, now strength five, go on, sir.
08:55My sense is that after the Ayatollah was eliminated, if there were separate sort of groups in Iran,
09:03one wanting to get away and one wanting to remain with the Ayatollah,
09:07those two groups have almost come together.
09:09Because it's a national cause, Ayatollah was the religious supremo, and they all praised him for that.
09:16And therefore, I think for the time being, for the time being, Iran is not likely to split to my
09:23mind.
09:23It will remain together.
09:24It is already impacting the world economy, not only because people are not getting their oil,
09:31also because the Arab countries are not able to export.
09:35And they are all probably in the hit list, because they are supporting the,
09:40they've got bases of the US, and it is frequently being attacked by Iran.
09:44So I think that, you know, it's a very complex situation.
09:46It may be a big hazard to make a guess at the moment.
09:49And I think that we'll have to wait and see.
09:51But certainly, for President Trump, Gaurav, it is a very difficult situation,
09:57because he has nothing to show to the American public whenever this is called off, number one.
10:03Secondly, the reason why he is now on to the Kharag Island is because of this,
10:08that at least when the Marines are actually, you know, the boots on the ground,
10:12which is not a wise thing to do,
10:13but they will probably pulverize all the defenses and offensive weapon systems in Kharag Island
10:21before they land the Marines.
10:22Otherwise, there can be a fair amount of casualties.
10:25It's a very well-armed, very well-protected island.
10:28Now, when I had the opportunity of going around that place,
10:31and I think that they will have to think twice,
10:33and I'm sure they will, you know, the 5th Fleet Commander and the CENTCOM
10:39must be taking frequent, passing frequent advice to the President
10:43as to what kind of decision he should take.
10:45But it's a very tough call for the President of the United States.
10:48It indeed is easier to get in, more difficult to find an exit in such a conflict.
10:54But, Siddharth, as far as India is concerned, to protect our energy needs,
11:00now that this region is likely, God forbid, to remain volatile for quite some time,
11:05is there, what's our plan B?
11:08The Russia route, the Canada route, would that be more expensive, more time-consuming?
11:13Would that cost be passed on to the consumers?
11:17My expert was saying a regime change in Iran is what President Trump wanted.
11:22Mid-term, there could well be a regime change post-mid-term November in the United States, Siddharth.
11:29Gaurav, let's just put this in context.
11:32This is a war that someone else initiated.
11:36America is completely self-sufficient in oil and gas.
11:39They don't need anybody's oil and gas.
11:41But the impact is directly on Asia,
11:44including India as one of the largest consumers of imported energy.
11:49What happens?
11:49You asked me several questions, I'll try and be quick.
11:52Number one, the oil import bill, if prices remain at the current level
11:58or tend to increase further, is going up very, very substantially for India.
12:03We are talking in the range of 45, 50, even 60 billion dollars,
12:07depending on what the oil price increase is.
12:11Are oil prices going to remain elevated?
12:13Certainly.
12:14Why is that so?
12:15Because there is no durable solution to the control of the Strait of Hormuz.
12:22Iran will continue to use it as leverage.
12:25And if it is going to be selective about the ships that pass through it,
12:30you clearly can expect that supplies will not go back to the pre-attack era.
12:35Therefore, alternative sources of energy will be found, are being found, and the cost will go up.
12:44In terms of what is the policy that the government has put in place,
12:49it is very simply prioritize domestic usage,
12:55cut industrial usage by certain extent across sectors,
13:00because they can take a hit.
13:02However, you cannot have a situation where people are not able to cook food in their homes.
13:08So you've seen a slew of steps,
13:10which are aimed at protecting the armed army and their consumption of gas.
13:17Crude oil, we do not have a shortage.
13:20So you have not seen cutbacks or rationing.
13:23What has really happened is rationing in industrial usage of gas.
13:28But, Gaurav, very quickly, there are going to be second-round downstream impacts across sectors.
13:35So we are seeing a slew of announcements where industries, sectors,
13:40which are dependent on oil by-products for various processes to produce what they do,
13:46chemicals, minerals, many other items, there have been significant cutbacks there.
13:52So in terms of headline GDP growth, March is certainly not going to be a good month for India.
13:58Yes.
13:59And fertilizers or the shortage of fertilizers will impact your next sowing season and your farm output.
14:05Well, I think the government is very, very conscious of that.
14:08You touched upon the most sensitive point and it's very clear on fertilizers.
14:13Every single moving piece is being monitored to ensure that that crisis doesn't happen,
14:21God forbid, because that would then spiral into a much wider inflationary issue.
14:26So I am betting that even if it means that we have to fly in fertilizers by the plane load,
14:31all of that is happening and I see no signs of worry.
14:35Certainly, there are concerns, but the government's response seems to be pretty proactive.
14:40Adi Ellis, the last 30 seconds I have on this part of the show, I want to understand from you,
14:44if this is a prolonged war, does it not impact President Trump adversely?
14:50Since he has, you know, midterms in November, many, many reports in the United States say
14:57his ratings are going down, the war is hugely unpopular,
15:00and with each day, if fuel prices go up, it becomes even more unpopular.
15:07I mean, according to military strategy they put on, they are about to put ground forces in Iran.
15:15And after the ground forces in Iran, they will recruit local forces like Kurds, Azeris,
15:21Balochis and others.
15:22They may raise more than 100,000 fighting force.
15:25And this will create an occupied zone that they can stay for a long period.
15:31And this will end up in dividing Iran in two in a longer period, maybe in five years to 10
15:37years.
15:38But if they stay there, they will bring Iran divided in two.
15:43And American public opinion, they shift their voting periods, voting attitudes every six months.
15:51Today, maybe they are low 5%, but two weeks later, they will be above 5%.
15:56So, I really don't see too much problem in domestic public opinions.
16:00You have run out of time on this part of the show, but Azeris or Balochis or even Kurds,
16:07the question is, have they been armed already?
16:09Are they trained? Are they primed?
16:11Iran already taking countermeasures?
16:14But that's a story we'll be tracking very closely.
16:16I want to thank all my guests on this part of the show.
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