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The latest episode of Statecraft captures a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape where diplomacy, strategy and power moves are unfolding in parallel. At the centre is Pakistan, hosting a second round of US-Iran talks — a notable shift for a country once viewed with scepticism. Its role as mediator reflects a calculated effort to regain relevance, backed by offers of counterterrorism cooperation, access to critical minerals and emerging financial avenues. At the same time, broader dynamics reveal a mix of resilience and quiet assertion. China has cushioned the impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz through large oil reserves and a growing shift to renewables and electric vehicles. India, meanwhile, is moving ahead with a €5 billion submarine deal with Germany aimed at strengthening its position in the Indian Ocean through advanced stealth capabilities and local manufacturing. Alongside this, Indian and US officials are working to finalise the first phase of a trade agreement after tariff reductions signalled improved economic ties. Yet beneath these developments lies a deeper concern — satellite imagery showing major oil spills in the Persian Gulf linked to ongoing strikes.
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00:22Hello and welcome, you're watching StageCraft with me Geeta Mohan.
00:25Now can a country once called a liar suddenly become the world's peacemaker?
00:29And actually pull it off.
00:31And while one nation grabs headlines with dramatic diplomacy,
00:35is another quietly preparing for a very different kind of far play, far below the surface.
00:40Tonight, two stories that could not look more different, but are deeply connected.
00:45One is loud, unexpected, almost unbelievable.
00:48The other is silent, calculated and deadly serious.
00:53Pakistan is hosting the United States and Iran at the negotiating table.
00:57Yes, Pakistan yet again.
00:58The same country once accused of deception, now trying to broker peace.
01:03So how did that happen?
01:05Strategy or sheer opportunism?
01:07And then shift your focus to India.
01:09No noise, no grand announcements, but behind closed doors.
01:13A 5 billion euro submarine deal inches closer.
01:17A move that could reshape power in the Indian Ocean.
01:20One country rewriting its image, the other reinforcing its strength.
01:25One chasing relevance, the other building dominance.
01:29All that and more.
01:30But first up, the headlines.
01:33Hours before the US-Iran ceasefire deadline ends,
01:36President Donald Trump in an interview said Iran has no choice but to send delegates to Pakistan for talks with
01:42the US.
01:43Trump added that he expects to be bombing if progress is not made in Iran peace talks and does not
01:49want to extend the ceasefire.
01:52As US Vice President J.D. Vance sets to travel to Islamabad for a second round of talks,
01:56Despite Tehran not yet confirming its participation, Iran's parliamentary speaker, Ghalibaf, posted on X that Iran has been preparing to
02:05show new cards on the battlefield in the last two weeks and would not accept negotiations under the shadow of
02:11threats.
02:13Pentagon said US forces boarded an oil tanker previously sanctioned for smuggling Iranian crude oil in Asia.
02:20Ship tracking data showed the Tiffany was carrying oil in the Indian Ocean between Sri Lanka and Indonesia.
02:26The Pentagon described the Tiffany as stateless despite it being a Botswana-flagged vessel.
02:33In a big development, Anadolu News Agency of Turkey has reported that US conveyed conditional willingness to reduce moratorium time
02:41limit for Iran's uranium enrichment to 10 years from 20.
02:46Pakistan is the hottest country in the world right now.
02:50It made US and Iran sit at the negotiating table, which seemed almost impossible.
02:54While the first round was inconclusive, the second round of talks are all set to begin and things are looking
03:01promising.
03:03But hold on a moment, how exactly did a country like Pakistan, a country that does not recognize Israel, a
03:08country that built nuclear weapons in secret, which is exactly what they accused Iran of trying to do?
03:15A country that Donald Trump, in his first term, publicly called out for giving America nothing but lies and deceit.
03:23But now rumor has it, Trump himself might show up at Islamabad to seal the deal if round two goes
03:30well.
03:31So how on earth did Pakistan, the world's most unlikely peacemaker, pull this off?
03:36Let's start with why Pakistan might not have been the best candidate for being mediator.
03:42First, Pakistan does not recognize Israel.
03:45Israel is literally a party to this conflict.
03:48That is like hiring a referee who refuses to acknowledge that one of the teams exists.
03:54Second, Pakistan went nuclear in secret, tested bombs in 1998, quietly, under international sanctions.
04:02Sound familiar?
04:03That is the exact accusation America and Israel threw at Iran for years.
04:08Pakistan already did what Iran got bombed for planning to do.
04:12Third, Trump himself called Pakistan a liar, not quietly, publicly, on the internet.
04:19He said Pakistan gave Washington nothing but lies and deceit while pocketing billions in American aid.
04:27That is not a rough patch.
04:29That is a diplomatic dumpster fire.
04:32So how did a country with this resume land the hosting rights for one of the most consequential peace talks
04:38of 2026, or maybe of history?
04:41Simple.
04:42Pakistan figured out how Trump works, and then gave him exactly what he wanted.
04:50Geopolitical experts say Trump is transactional.
04:53He does not care about history or ideology.
04:55He cares about deals, flattery, and wins he can point to.
04:59So Pakistan gave him wins he could point to.
05:03Experts called it the three Cs.
05:05Crypto, critical minerals, and counterterrorism.
05:09Think of it as Pakistan's three-course meal, served specifically to one very particular client.
05:17Counterterrorism was the starter, and the most important one.
05:20Pakistan handed over a suspect connected to the 2021 Kabul airport bombing that killed 13 American troops.
05:28That is not a small thing.
05:30That is, a gift wrapped in intelligence and delivered directly to Trump's national security team.
05:36Pakistan also shared real-time intel on terror groups threatening American interests.
05:41It positioned itself as the indispensable player on the Afghanistan border,
05:46a country America simply could not afford to ignore.
05:51Critical minerals was the main cause, and Trump ate it up.
05:55Pakistan sits on massive untapped reserves, rare-earth elements, lithium, cobalt, antimony,
06:02the stuff that goes into electric vehicles, semiconductors, and fighter jets.
06:08In September 2025, Pakistan signed a $500 million deal with a U.S. firm for mineral exploration.
06:15This was not charity.
06:17This was Pakistan dangling what Trump wanted most.
06:21A way to break China's stranglehold on the global supply chain.
06:26Trump had just signed an executive order on critical minerals.
06:30Pakistan showed up with the goods.
06:34And then, crypto was the dessert.
06:37Shiny, modern, and designed to charm.
06:39Trump launched his own crypto venture after his re-election.
06:43Pakistan moved fast.
06:45It eased crypto regulations and opened the door for Trump-linked platforms to operate there.
06:51Bitcoin mining on cheap Pakistani hydropar.
06:55Cross-border payments via stablecoin.
06:57Pakistani freelancers plugged into the ecosystem.
07:00Trump called Army Chief Asimunir his favorite field marshal for his future forward thinking.
07:08That is Trump's peak, for Pakistan made me feel good, and I like them now.
07:13The flattery ran alongside all of this.
07:16Pakistan's Prime Minister publicly thanked Trump for mediating the India-Pakistan ceasefire of May 2025,
07:22even though India denied any American role.
07:26Pakistan nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
07:29Pakistan joined Trump's Board of Peace.
07:31The Pakistani Prime Minister posted on X, Trump reposted it, and Pakistani television lost its mind with excitement.
07:40It worked.
07:41By October 2025, Trump called Munir his favorite field marshal.
07:45By April 2026, Islamabad hosted the first round of U.S. around peace talks.
07:50And now, round two came back to the same city.
07:54A country written off as a liar, a secret nuclear state, and a diplomatic dead-end,
08:00read the room, played the game, and put itself at the center of the world's most important conversation.
08:07While many economies scramble to secure fuel, China appears unusually prepared.
08:12China has systematically reduced its vulnerability to external energy disruptions
08:16by diversifying supply routes, building massive oil reserves,
08:21and accelerating its transition toward renewable energy and electrification.
08:26This is the result of a decade-long strategic shift under President Xi Jinping.
08:31Here is a report.
08:38Here's the irony.
08:40A global oil shock that China seems unusually prepared for.
08:44For over a decade, Xi Jinping has been quietly reshaping China's energy strategy with one clear goal.
08:51Survival in a worst-case scenario.
08:54Not efficiency, not climate leadership alone, but resilience.
08:59And today, as conflict in the state of Hormuz sends oil markets into chaos,
09:03that strategy is being put to its biggest test yet.
09:07So far, it's holding.
09:09While much of Asia scrambles for fuel,
09:11China is sitting on massive oil stockpiles,
09:15a power grid increasingly driven by electricity,
09:17and a car market rapidly ditching petrol for batteries.
09:22China is less exposed than it used to be,
09:25and that's no accident.
09:26To understand this, we need to go back.
09:28China became a net energy importer in the 1990s.
09:32Since then, its biggest vulnerability has been geography.
09:35A huge chunk of its oil passes through narrow choke points like the state of Malacca,
09:40routes that could be blocked in a conflict.
09:43Beijing saw the risk early.
09:45So it built pipelines across continents,
09:47from Russia, Central Asia, even Myanmar,
09:50reducing reliance on sea routes.
09:51It diversified suppliers.
09:53And after Russia's war in Ukraine,
09:55Moscow quickly became China's top oil provider.
09:58But Xi Jinping went further.
10:00Instead of just securing more oil,
10:02he asked a bigger question.
10:04What if China needed less of it altogether?
10:07That's where the real transformation began.
10:09Under Xi,
10:10China supercharged its renewable energy push.
10:13Today,
10:13it leads the world in wind and solar power,
10:16by a huge margin.
10:18Massive solar farms stretch across deserts.
10:20Wind turbines line coastlines.
10:23Hydropower projects dominate its rivers.
10:26At the same time,
10:27China cracked the code on cheap batteries,
10:29electric vehicles now make up
10:31more than half of new car sales in the country.
10:34That's not just a climate win,
10:36it's a strategic one.
10:37Less petrol demand means less dependence on foreign oil.
10:41In fact,
10:42EVs alone have cut China's oil demand
10:44by over a million barrels a day.
10:46But here's the twist.
10:48China hasn't abandoned fossil fuels.
10:50Coal still powers a large chunk of its grid.
10:53Domestic oil production is at record highs.
10:55And state firms are drilling deeper,
10:57offshore and in remote regions.
10:59To squeeze out every drop.
11:01Why?
11:01Because for Beijing,
11:03this isn't about ideology.
11:04It's about insurance.
11:05And that insurance is paying off.
11:07Despite still importing about 70% of its oil,
11:11China has built reserves estimated at around 1.3 billion barrels.
11:15Enough to cover roughly three months.
11:17When prices spiked during the crisis,
11:19Beijing simply tapped into these reserves and stabilised supply.
11:23Compare that to other economies and the difference is stark.
11:27Even when Iran disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,
11:30a route critical to China's imports,
11:32the system didn't collapse.
11:34Costs rose.
11:35Yes,
11:35flights got pricier,
11:37manufacturing felt the pressure,
11:38but the shock was absorbed.
11:40And that's the real story here.
11:42China hasn't eliminated its vulnerabilities,
11:45but it has diluted them.
11:46What's emerging is something new.
11:48An electrostate.
11:49An economy powered increasingly by electricity,
11:52much of it generated at home rather than imported fuel.
11:56And this stands in sharp contrast to the United States,
11:59where momentum on renewables has slowed
12:01and fossil fuels still dominate.
12:03The geopolitical implications are huge.
12:05As countries watch this crisis unfold,
12:07many may start asking the same question China did years ago.
12:11How do we protect ourselves from energy shocks?
12:13And increasingly,
12:15the answer may look a lot like Beijing's model.
12:18More domestic energy,
12:19more electrification,
12:20less reliance on global oil flows.
12:23For Xi Jinping,
12:24this moment is more than a test.
12:26It's validation,
12:27a decade of planning,
12:29investment,
12:29and worst case thinking
12:31now proving its worth in real time.
12:33And in a world growing more unstable by the day,
12:36that might be China's biggest strategic advantage yet.
12:40With Farhan Khan,
12:41Bureau Report,
12:42India Today Global.
12:45India is now on the verge of one of its biggest
12:49underwater power moves in decades.
12:51A 5 billion euro submarine deal is on the table.
12:54Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is in Germany
12:57and what looks like a routine three-day visit
12:59is anything but routine.
13:01Because behind closed doors,
13:03a critical negotiation is approaching its final stages.
13:06A deal that could redefine India's naval strength
13:09in the Indian Ocean.
13:11This is not just diplomacy.
13:13This is strategic signalling.
13:15Singh's visit,
13:16his first to Germany since 2019,
13:18comes at a time when India is quietly pushing forward
13:22one of its most ambitious naval modernisation programmes,
13:26Project 751.
13:27Sixth next-generation submarines,
13:30advanced stealth,
13:32longer endurance,
13:33and a clear message to adversaries operating in the region.
13:37Because timing here is everything.
13:39The negotiations between India and Germany
13:41are already at an advanced stage.
13:43The partnership between Mazagal Dock Shipbuilders,
13:46Limited Anthris Group Marine Systems
13:48is nearing closure.
13:50And once signed,
13:52this will not just be another defence deal,
13:54it will be one of the largest ever between the two countries.
13:58But here's the catch.
14:00This visit may not produce a headline announcement.
14:04No dramatic signing ceremony,
14:06no immediate breakthrough.
14:07And yet,
14:08it could prove decisive.
14:09Because in defence diplomacy,
14:12momentum matters.
14:13And right now,
14:14both sides are aligning
14:16for a long-term strategic partnership
14:18that goes far beyond a single contract.
14:23At the heart of it is capability.
14:25Because India is not just buying submarines,
14:28it is upgrading its underwater warfare doctrine.
14:31These are diesel-electric attack submarines
14:34equipped with air-independent propulsion,
14:36that is AIP systems,
14:38technology that allows submarines
14:40to stay submerged for longer,
14:42move silently,
14:44and strike unpredictably.
14:46In modern naval warfare,
14:48stealth is survival.
14:49And AIP changes the equation.
14:51It reduces the need to resurface,
14:54minimises detection,
14:56extends operational reach.
14:58In contested waters,
14:59that is a decisive advantage,
15:02especially in a region where surveillance
15:04is increasing and competition
15:06is intensifying.
15:08And that competition has a name,
15:11China,
15:11along with Pakistan,
15:13both expanding their maritime footprint
15:15in the Indian Ocean region,
15:17both increasing submarine deployments,
15:19both testing India's strategic depth at sea.
15:23This is why Project 751 is not optional.
15:26It is urgent.
15:27India's existing submarine fleet is ageing.
15:30Capabilities need upgrading,
15:32numbers need strengthening,
15:33and delays,
15:34which have already plagued this project for years,
15:37are no longer affordable.
15:40Because look at the current reality.
15:42India operates 20 submarines,
15:4417 under the Indian Navy,
15:45three nuclear assets under strategic command.
15:48The most recent addition,
15:49INS Aridhaman strengthens the nuclear leg,
15:53but conventional capabilities still need expansion.
15:57The backbone of India's conventional fleet
16:00is the Scorpene-class submarines
16:02like INS Kalwari,
16:04INS Khanderi,
16:05INS Karanj,
16:06INS Vela,
16:07and INS Bagheer.
16:08Built under Make in India,
16:10equipped with modern systems,
16:12but even these are not enough
16:14to meet future challenges.
16:16Because beneath them lies an older layer,
16:19the Shishumar class and the Sindhugosh class.
16:22Reliable, but aging.
16:24Capable, but limited in modern stealth warfare.
16:27And that creates a capability gap.
16:30And gaps at sea are dangerous,
16:32because maritime security today is not theoretical.
16:35It is active.
16:36It is contested from the Strait of Hormuz
16:39to critical shipping lanes.
16:40India's Navy is already operating
16:42in high-risk environments.
16:44Escort missions,
16:45surveillance operations,
16:47strategic deterrence.
16:48Which is why this submarine deal
16:50is about more than hardware.
16:52It is about control.
16:54Control of sea lanes,
16:55control of deterrence,
16:57control of India's position
16:58as a net security provider in the region.
17:02There is also another layer to the story.
17:04Indigenization.
17:05The deal targets up to 60% local manufacturing.
17:09That means technology transfer,
17:11domestic capability building,
17:13and a push to reduce dependence
17:15on foreign suppliers over the long term.
17:18Still, the timeline remains a concern.
17:21Project 751 has already seen years of delay.
17:24First conceptualized nearly a decade ago,
17:27formalized in 2020,
17:29and only now approaching finalization.
17:31If the contract is signed soon,
17:33the first submarine could arrive
17:35in four to five years.
17:37But until then,
17:38the pressure remains.
17:39Because maritime threats
17:41are not waiting.
17:42They're evolving,
17:43expanding,
17:44and in some cases,
17:45escalating.
17:46Which brings us back to Germany
17:48and to Rajanath Singh's visit.
17:51Officially,
17:52it is about defense cooperation,
17:54military engagement,
17:55emerging technologies.
17:57But strategically,
17:57it is about something bigger.
17:59Securing a deal
18:00that strengthens India's position
18:02beneath the surface.
18:04Because in modern warfare,
18:06dominance is not always visible.
18:07It is often silent,
18:09submerged,
18:10hidden from sight,
18:11and decided long before
18:13conflict begins.
18:15The five billion euro question
18:17now is simple.
18:18Will India close this deal
18:19in time to stay ahead
18:21of the curve?
18:22Or will delays continue
18:23to push critical capability
18:25further into the future?
18:26Because in the Indian Ocean,
18:28the balance of power
18:29is shifting,
18:30quietly,
18:31rapidly,
18:31and increasingly
18:33underwater.
18:35India and the U.S.
18:37began talks in Washington
18:38to finalize the first phase
18:39of a proposed
18:40bilateral trade agreement,
18:42that is BTA.
18:43A 12-member Indian delegation
18:44led by chief negotiator
18:46Darupin Jain,
18:47additional secretary
18:48in the Department of Commerce,
18:49is engaged with the U.S. team
18:51headed by Brendan Lynch
18:53from the Office
18:54of the U.S. Trade Representative
18:55during the three-day meet
18:57from April 20th
18:58to the 22nd of April.
19:00This is the first
19:01in-person talks
19:02since October 2025.
19:04The talks also come
19:06after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling
19:08that struck down
19:09sweeping reciprocal tariffs
19:11imposed under the
19:12International Emergency
19:13Economics Powers Act
19:14or the IEEPA.
19:16After U.S. imposed
19:18additional tariff
19:19of 25% on India
19:20for purchasing Russian oil,
19:22New Delhi consistent talks
19:24with the U.S. secured
19:25New Delhi a deal
19:27wherein the U.S. slashed
19:29tariffs on India
19:30from 50% to 18%.
19:32U.S. Ambassador to India
19:33Ambassador Sergio Gaur
19:34welcomed the ongoing talks
19:36between both the countries
19:37describing it
19:38a win-win
19:39for both nations.
19:41Well, we have almost
19:45finalized our free trade agreement,
19:47the first tranche
19:47of the bilateral trade agreement
19:49with them.
19:50We are trying to close
19:52the T's and dots
19:53on that
19:54and work out
19:56what would be
19:56the mechanism
19:57by which India
19:59can get
19:59a preferential
20:01access,
20:02market access
20:03in the U.S. market
20:04compared to our competitors.
20:06The team will be
20:07discussing these aspects
20:09while they are
20:09in Washington.
20:11That's all in this
20:11edition of Statecraft.
20:12But before we let you go,
20:14here's a moment
20:14that captures both
20:16damage and danger.
20:17Oil from the Iran war
20:19is now visible
20:20from space.
20:21Satellite images
20:22show massive spill
20:23spreading across
20:24the Persian Gulf
20:25after strikes
20:25hit oil facilities
20:27and vessels
20:28in the region.
20:29Near Iran's
20:29Kesham Island,
20:30a slick stretching
20:31over five miles
20:32floats through
20:33the Strait of Hormuz.
20:34Around Lawan Island,
20:36fires rage
20:37and oil leaks
20:38into the sea.
20:39And now,
20:40that spill
20:40is drifting
20:41toward Shidwar Island,
20:43a protected habitat
20:44home to turtles
20:45and seabirds.
20:47This is no longer
20:48just a military conflict.
20:49It is
20:50an environmental crisis
20:52in real time.
20:53Marine life at risk,
20:55coastal livelihoods
20:56are under threat
20:57and nearly
20:57100 million people
20:59who depend
21:00on desalinated water
21:01could feel the impact.
21:03The worst part?
21:04These spills
21:05are incredibly
21:06hard to clean,
21:08especially
21:08with war
21:09still ongoing.
21:11Take a look.
21:12Goodbye
21:12and take care.
21:25and take care.
21:32Bye.
21:34Bye.
21:34Bye.
21:35Bye.
21:37Bye.
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