- 23 minutes ago
With just hours to go for the ceasefire deadline to end, US President Donald Trump has threatened Iran stating that bombing will continue if there is no deal with Tehran.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Good evening, hello and welcome. You're with the news today, your primetime destination news,
00:04newsmakers, talking points, our big talking point here this Tuesday night.
00:09Donald Trump has kept the world on the edge, says expect war again if no deal with Iran in the
00:16next 48 hours.
00:17Among my special guests, Najam Sethi, senior Pakistani journalist will join us on a day when the world's eyes are
00:24on Islamabad.
00:25Will the talks with Iran and the US take place there or not?
00:29Also, what happens to the global economy if war restarts?
00:34My special guests include Geeta Gopinath, one of the world's leading economists, will join me on the show tonight.
00:40So there's plenty to look forward to as always. But first, it's time for the nine headlines at nine.
00:47Just 24 hours to go before the ceasefire deadline ends.
00:51Both delegations of US and Iran yet to head to Islamabad for the proposed peace talks.
00:58Trump says either a deal or the bombing resumes in 48 hours.
01:05In an exclusive interview with India today, former IAF Deputy Managing Director and leading economist Geeta Gopinath warns,
01:13fuel prices will have to be raised if the conflict continues, warns.
01:17Growth too may take a hit in India and across the world.
01:23Showdown in Tamil Nadu on the last day of campaigning.
01:27Malik Arjun Khargay calls Prime Minister Modi a terrorist, later gratifies, says meant to say Modi terrorizing people.
01:34BJP demands an apology.
01:39Congress MP KC Venugopal moves a privileged motion against the Prime Minister over his Saturday night address to the nation,
01:47says the Prime Minister's remarks were a blatant misuse of power.
01:53On the last day of campaign in Bengal, the Trinamul Congress flags the I.A. Didi remark by Home Minister
02:00Shah during a rally in Bengal,
02:02claimed senior woman leader and chief minister of Bengal has been abused by the BJP.
02:09The BJP says the TMC is creating a political controversy for no reason.
02:18Erogatory remark also by a Member of Parliament, Pappu Yadav, says 90% of women enter politics via the bedroom
02:24of politicians.
02:25Congress condemns the remark.
02:30Horrific murder in Bengaluru.
02:3227-year-old man allegedly tied up and burnt alive by his lover, accused, taken into custody.
02:41Ahead of the Trisoor Pooram Festival, at least 13 people killed in an explosion at a fireworks unit,
02:46President Murmu, Kerala Chief Minister Vijayan expressed condolences.
02:53Tim Cook, who led tech giant Apple for 15 years, steps down as CEO.
02:57Donald Trump calls himself a fan of Cook, followed by a taunt.
03:14But the story that's breaking at this moment, U.S. President Donald Trump has now issued a warning
03:20that puts the world on an edge once again.
03:22He's told different U.S. media outlets he expects to continue bombing Iran
03:27if the two countries are unable to reach a deal in the next 48 hours.
03:31U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to lead a U.S. delegation to Islamabad later tonight.
03:38But Iran is yet to confirm if it will join the peace talks.
03:42Pakistan remains hopeful that the Iranian leaders will attend those peace talks,
03:47the second round of which is being scheduled in Islamabad.
03:50Islamabad. So clearly lots of confusion, mixed signals once again from Donald Trump.
03:55Geeta Mohan, our Diplomatic Affairs Editor, joins us.
03:58Geeta, what are you picking up? Are the talks going to take place in Islamabad tomorrow?
04:02Or could we see a situation where the deadline for the ceasefire ends without any negotiations anymore?
04:10From what I'm picking up from my sources on both the sides, Rajdeep,
04:16it does seem like the Iranian side will be going in for the talks.
04:19Whether it happens tomorrow or day after, we'll have to wait and see because of logistics.
04:24The fact that the teams have not landed yet.
04:27And should they land, in fact, if they're delayed, they will land by afternoon or noon.
04:32So the talks, again, could begin in the evening and go into the VRs, way beyond the deadline.
04:40So, again, we'll have to wait and see whether there's success or failure of the second round of talks.
04:46But the fact of the matter over here is that the U.S. President, Rajdeep, is getting impatient.
04:52And therefore, this is arm-twisting, as we can see,
04:55with him threatening yet another spate of attacks against Iran.
05:00But the priority over here for all sides is to ensure that they come to a deal,
05:07that fees comes back and that global economy stabilizes.
05:12So what you're saying, Geeta, is that the Iranians, for their public posturing, are keen on talks,
05:18that the Americans are likely to send JD vans.
05:21Whether that deadline will be met is uncertain.
05:24But there is a possibility then, that for all the public posturing,
05:28that deadline could be extended to allow the talks to continue.
05:32Am I broadly correct?
05:34Absolutely, Rajdeep.
05:35If the teams land in Islamabad and talks begin, then there will be an extension.
05:40But should they not land, then yes, we'll have to wait for what President Trump really does then.
05:47Okay, Geeta Mohan joining us there with those details.
05:51Remember, all eyes, therefore, will be on Islamabad,
05:54because the Pakistani capital has become the center for all the negotiations that are taking place.
06:01That second round of talks now expected between the U.S. and Iran sometime tomorrow.
06:06Typically, there is unprecedented security in Pakistan's capital city.
06:10Over 10,000 security personnel have been deployed in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.
06:16Commandos and snipers have been stationed at multiple locations.
06:21The city is virtually sealed with hundreds of pickets.
06:24As I said, Iran so far has not officially confirmed that they will attend those talks.
06:30Pakistan has been trying to convince Tehran, reportedly, to join the dialogue.
06:35All eyes, therefore, will be on how Tehran responds now,
06:39because time, as Donald Trump claims, is running out for Tehran to come out with a positive response.
06:45The talks, remember, I've been in their second stage.
06:48The first round of talks were held in Islamabad a week ago,
06:52but there was no breakthrough at the time.
06:55Joining me now is a senior Pakistani journalist, editor of the Friday Times,
07:00one of their most distinguished political commentators, Najam Sethi, joins me.
07:04We appreciate your joining us, Mr. Sidi.
07:06All eyes on Islamabad.
07:08Your sense, what role is Pakistan playing here?
07:11Is it a mediator?
07:12Is it simply a messenger taking messages from one side to the other?
07:17What exactly, according to you, is the role that Pakistan is playing
07:21in trying to achieve a breakthrough in these talks?
07:26Thank you, Rajdeep.
07:27Yes, I think it started off simply as a third party trying to facilitate the talks.
07:33But I think progressively, Pakistan has ended up being a bit of a mediator
07:40in trying to convince one or the other side to concede points so that the talks can take place.
07:48And I think that's where we are now because the Pakistani prime minister,
07:52the field marshal, and the deputy prime minister all have got on the phone
07:56and have been on the phone literally 24 hours a day trying to convince both sides
08:02to drop their maximum risk positions and come for the talks.
08:06I think the situation in Islamabad until yesterday was that they were pretty sure
08:12that the Iranians would come.
08:15But then the Iranians took the position that Donald Trump had stepped back from the commitment
08:21and imposed the blockade.
08:24And I think that's what has sparked the atmosphere.
08:27The Iranians don't want to seem to be going to Islamabad under some form of pressure,
08:31which is, of course, what it looks like after the capture of the Iranian ship by the Americans
08:39and then, of course, the American blockade.
08:42I think the understanding was that Iran would open the straits
08:48and America would withdraw the blockade.
08:51And then the two would meet in Islamabad.
08:53The Iranians did their part, but the Americans did not.
08:55And I think that's where we are right now.
08:57And that's why in Iran itself, from what I understand,
09:00there are differences on how to deal with this issue within the Revolutionary Council.
09:09But there are those, Najib Sethi, who are saying that Pakistan is acting
09:12both on behalf of the United States in particular and also China,
09:16a country with which Pakistan has strong relationships.
09:18It's not insignificant that the Pakistan foreign minister has been in regular touch
09:22with his counterparts in Beijing.
09:24Beijing has a lot of influence with Tehran.
09:26So we are seeing Pakistan, in a way, playing the frontal role
09:31while backroom is being controlled, many believe, by Beijing
09:35and to some extent by the United States.
09:37Do you go along with that, that it is China, really,
09:40which is perhaps the key player here?
09:43No, I don't think that's true.
09:46While China is a great ally of Iran,
09:49but China is behind the scenes.
09:51And I think the Chinese have made it no secret
09:54that they would like to see a ceasefire.
09:56They would like to see this matter sorted out.
09:58And they would like to see an end to the war.
10:00And they would like to see international relations play a role in all this.
10:05Pakistan, I think, found an opportunity
10:08to step up the game and become more noticeable.
10:12And I think they exploited that opportunity with Donald Trump
10:17and got talking to him.
10:20And I think they saw that there was nobody else
10:22who was ready to step into the arena.
10:25This is a role traditionally expected of India,
10:28but that was not forthcoming.
10:29And so Pakistan stepped in.
10:31And I think they had a great measure of success.
10:34And that is why they ran around all over the place
10:38trying to put it all together.
10:42But there are those who are saying
10:43there's an FT report to a Financial Times report
10:46which suggests there's a Texan lobbying firm
10:48that has been working very closely
10:50with both the Pakistanis and the Trump administration.
10:53They're the ones who built an equation
10:55between the Trump administration
10:56and the Pakistani leadership,
10:58especially Field Martial Munir.
10:59There's talk of business deals
11:01between Donald Trump's close family
11:04and the Pakistani leadership.
11:07Do you believe there's more to it than meets the eye,
11:11the proximity that Pakistan seems to be showing
11:14towards the Trump administration in particular
11:16or Trump's proximity to Field Marshal Munir?
11:21Well, you know, the Pakistanis did some interesting things
11:24to begin with.
11:24As soon as Donald Trump came into office,
11:27they did launch a significant lobbying effort
11:30to try and get him on their side.
11:32Because if you recall,
11:33the last time he was in office,
11:34he wasn't particularly keen on Pakistan.
11:37And so they did use lobbying firms
11:41to up their profile, as it were, with Donald Trump.
11:44But then they did something
11:45that has yielded a lot of fruit.
11:48Trump was keen on counterterrorism.
11:51And so the Pakistanis caught and handed over
11:53a very key terrorist who was involved
11:55in the bombing of the Afghan airbase,
11:58American airbase when the Americans
12:00are about to leave.
12:01And that really gave Donald Trump
12:03an opportunity to praise the Pakistanis.
12:06And he did so in front of Congress.
12:07And I don't think the Pakistanis
12:09looked back after that.
12:10They thought they had an end with Trump.
12:12And then, of course,
12:13they signed these cryptocurrency deals
12:16and the mining deals,
12:18which, of course, Trump would have loved.
12:21So that is, I think, how they got close to him.
12:23And then I think, finally,
12:25they recognized something very important,
12:27that Trump is a transactional man,
12:29and that that's what gets to his heart,
12:31and that's what works.
12:33And I think their praise of Trump
12:36as having ended the war between India and Pakistan
12:38probably did the trick.
12:40As you know, Trump was delighted with that.
12:41And I think that may have been one of the reasons
12:43why he didn't much care for what Mr. Modi was saying.
12:46He didn't do the same.
12:48And Trump, I think, has responded to all this.
12:51And a degree of trust and camaraderie
12:54has been established.
12:55It's not as though it's back to the good old days
12:57when U.S. and America were partners.
12:59That's not the case.
13:00But certainly, America is now listening
13:03to what Pakistan is saying.
13:05And Pakistan has a lot of beef in this state
13:08because, you know,
13:1190% of our oil comes from the Gulf.
13:14And we're hugely dependent on it.
13:17And we have an alliance with Saudi Arabia.
13:21And we desperately need the oil.
13:24And we need it at a reasonably cheap price.
13:27As you know, we are already in Pakistan
13:29undergoing a lot of hardship
13:31because of lack of supplies.
13:34So we have a vested interest
13:36in getting this thing sorted out
13:38as quickly as possible.
13:39And also in trying to effect this rapprochement
13:44to remain on the good sides
13:45of all the players in the Gulf.
13:49You know, because there is a belief that
13:51it's interesting the way you put it
13:53because while Pakistan is getting the visibility
13:55of being the seeming mediator,
13:57as it calls itself,
13:58between Iran and the United States,
14:01your economy is in bad shape.
14:03And the longer the war continues,
14:06the more difficult it's going to be
14:07for the Pakistani economy.
14:09So Pakistan has a huge stake,
14:12also shares a large border,
14:13a long border with Iran,
14:15clearly desperate also
14:17to get a deal going,
14:19monies that should otherwise be coming in.
14:22It has huge debt
14:25that it needs to service.
14:26Given all that,
14:27do you believe there's a sense of desperation
14:29also in what Pakistan is doing or not?
14:32I wouldn't call it desperation,
14:34but I would say that
14:35there's a great deal of interest.
14:37Don't forget, you know,
14:38we have a project
14:39which is in the doldrums right now,
14:42which is the gas pipeline
14:43from Iran to Pakistan,
14:45and that's on hold
14:47because of the American sanctions.
14:49We are not allowed to go ahead
14:51with that project.
14:52The Iranians have been very angry with us
14:53in the past.
14:54So I think if this thing is resolved,
14:57one of the things that we expect
14:59to get from all this,
15:00apart from, of course,
15:01the oil and the rest of it,
15:03is that the Americans
15:04might let up on that particular sanction.
15:07And if that happens,
15:08then Iran and Pakistan
15:09can trade gas and oil with each other
15:12directly via a pipeline.
15:13And I think that would be
15:15very, very important.
15:16So I think good relations with Iran
15:17are as important to Pakistan now
15:20as good relations with America.
15:24Who is leading this?
15:25Is it General Field Marshal Munir
15:27or Shahbaz Sharif?
15:28Is it the military leadership
15:29that's still calling the shots?
15:32Field Marshal Munir was in Iran
15:33not too long ago
15:35speaking to their leadership.
15:36Is he the one in control
15:37taking all the major decisions?
15:39Or is it Shahbaz Sharif?
15:41No, I think you have
15:43a very finely tuned understanding
15:45between the Prime Minister
15:47and the Deputy Prime Minister
15:48on the one side,
15:49the civilians,
15:50and the military establishment
15:51led by General Munir.
15:53I think they're absolutely
15:55100% on the same page,
15:57which is why, as you know,
15:59while Shahbaz Sharif was in Turkey
16:01and the Deputy Foreign Minister
16:03was in Saudi Arabia,
16:06the Army Chief was in Iran
16:08and so on and so forth.
16:09So they are working together
16:11to get this thing done.
16:12And I think they're
16:13in constant touch with each other
16:14and it's a joint platform.
16:19You're saying it's a joint platform.
16:20In conclusion,
16:22presumably Pakistan is hoping
16:24to get financial aid out of it,
16:26as you say, getting oil
16:27because a large part of its oil
16:28does come through the Strait of Hormuz.
16:31But do you believe that
16:32given the fact that
16:33Donald Trump is transactional,
16:36Pakistan also will have to be careful
16:39as to what kind of role
16:40it precisely ends up playing in this?
16:42If this goes horribly wrong,
16:43where does it leave Pakistan?
16:45If the talks don't result
16:47in a breakthrough,
16:48what happens next?
16:50I don't think anything
16:51will happen.
16:52I think Pakistan
16:53has already established itself
16:54as a good interlocutor
16:58and as a good mediator.
16:59It's standing
17:00in all the world capitals
17:01has gone up.
17:02My understanding is,
17:03in fact,
17:04knowledge is that
17:04all the top leaders
17:06of the world
17:06are in touch
17:07with Pakistan's leadership
17:08and urging them
17:09to get on
17:10and continue to play this role.
17:12And even if nothing comes of it,
17:14everybody will know
17:15that Pakistan,
17:16of all the players in the world,
17:18did its best
17:18to get this done.
17:19So I think
17:20whether it succeeds,
17:21whether there are talks or not,
17:23whether they succeed or not,
17:24I think Pakistan has arrived
17:26at a place
17:27where its importance
17:28is now being recognized
17:29as a player
17:30in the Middle East.
17:33You know,
17:33many will say
17:34it's a beneficiary
17:35of geographical location,
17:36but I must ask you
17:37this question
17:37from a New Delhi perspective.
17:39New Delhi's concern
17:40remains the same.
17:41Pakistan exporting
17:42cross-border terrorism
17:43into India,
17:44targeting India.
17:46Do you believe
17:47that that image
17:48of Pakistan
17:49as a country
17:50which has had to
17:51often be on
17:52the FATF watch list,
17:55has been on,
17:56has been accused
17:58of harboring terror,
17:59that doesn't go away.
18:01Does it with this?
18:02It's gone away
18:03because Pakistan
18:04has not been exporting terror
18:05and it's number one
18:07and the world knows this
18:08and right now
18:10the world is
18:11appreciative of Pakistan.
18:13It has Mr. Sethi,
18:14I know you and I,
18:15I don't want to dispute that
18:16but you,
18:16you know better than most
18:18that the likes
18:18of Masood Azhar
18:19and others
18:20and Dawud Ibrahim
18:21and Hafiz Saeed
18:22have had refuge
18:23in Pakistan.
18:24You know,
18:25Rajdi,
18:25the thing is that
18:26you're talking of
18:27a long past.
18:28Those days are over.
18:29This particular government
18:31and this regime
18:33are focused on
18:34putting Pakistan
18:35back on the string.
18:37And so Sandur,
18:38you know what happened
18:39in Sandur.
18:41You didn't get
18:41any sympathy
18:42from anywhere.
18:43Nobody believed
18:44your story.
18:44So let's leave there,
18:46let's leave it at that.
18:47Let's not get into
18:47India-Pakistan
18:48in this discussion.
18:52Okay,
18:52I'll leave India-Pakistan
18:53for another day
18:54but clearly Pakistan
18:56far more visible
18:57on the global stage
18:58than perhaps it has been
18:59in a very long time.
19:01I appreciate
19:02Najam Sethi,
19:03you joining us
19:04and giving us a view
19:05from Islamabad
19:06as to how it's all
19:07playing out,
19:08this chess game
19:09that's being played out
19:10in the hope,
19:11I think across the world
19:12is that the talks succeed.
19:13Let's be very clear.
19:14The world wants
19:15the talks to succeed
19:16so that the war
19:18ends in West Asia.
19:20I thank you very much
19:21Najam Sethi
19:22for joining me here
19:23on the show tonight.
19:26Okay,
19:27now remember
19:27one reason
19:28why the world
19:29needs those talks
19:30to succeed
19:31is the state
19:32of the global economy.
19:33Across the world
19:34the fact is
19:35that the West Asia war
19:37has caused
19:38one would say
19:39completely upended
19:41global economy.
19:42Just take a look
19:42at these numbers.
19:43In the United States
19:44energy inflation
19:45has surged
19:46to an annualized rate
19:47of 287%.
19:48Consumer inflation
19:50has climbed to 3.3%.
19:51In Europe
19:52jet fuel prices
19:53have surged
19:54by over 100%.
19:55Europe has only
19:56six weeks
19:57of jet fuel supply
19:58remaining.
19:58Asia heavily dependent
20:00on oil supply
20:00through Horbos.
20:01Asian stations
20:02relying on the
20:03Horbos route
20:04for 30% gasoline
20:05and nafta imports.
20:06South Korea
20:07and Pakistan
20:08have already taken
20:09steps to save energy.
20:10Speaking specifically
20:11about India
20:12the rupee
20:12has weakened.
20:13This means
20:14the current
20:14account deficit
20:15is set to rise
20:16further
20:17and at some
20:17point the worry
20:18is fuel prices
20:19will rise
20:20and this could
20:21have a cascading
20:22effect on inflation.
20:24Now these are
20:25some of the issues
20:25that I have raised
20:26with one of the world's
20:27leading economists
20:28Harvard University
20:29professor,
20:30former IMF
20:31deputy managing
20:32director
20:33Gita Gopinath.
20:34Listen in
20:35to what she had
20:36to say.
20:41Joining me now
20:42Gita Gopinath
20:44Harvard University
20:45professor
20:45and former
20:47deputy managing
20:48director
20:48at IMF.
20:49Good to have you
20:50Professor Gopinath
20:51on the show.
20:52Thank you very much
20:53for joining us.
20:54when we met
20:56three months ago
20:56in Davos
20:57you were
20:58cautious
20:59about the
21:00disruptions
21:01that the U.S.
21:02president was
21:03causing then
21:03in a conflict
21:04with Europe.
21:05Now we've had
21:06an even bigger
21:07disruption
21:08with the war
21:09in the Gulf.
21:10Are you even
21:11more anxious
21:12and worried
21:12about the direction
21:13the economies
21:15of the world
21:16are going
21:16and the impact
21:17the war
21:18is going
21:18to have
21:19on economic
21:20growth?
21:21Rajdeep,
21:22just like back
21:22then,
21:23my caution
21:24came from
21:24the fact
21:25that with
21:26Trump
21:26nothing is
21:28totally certain
21:29about what's
21:29going to happen.
21:30Let me just
21:31give you two
21:31examples.
21:32Tariffs.
21:33Remember we had
21:33the April 2nd
21:35Liberation Day
21:36tariffs when
21:36average tariffs
21:37by the U.S.
21:38was going to
21:38impose was about
21:3925% in the
21:41world and that
21:42came down now
21:43to 10%
21:44also because of
21:45the Supreme
21:45Court ruling
21:46on it.
21:47So now for
21:47example India's
21:48tariffs have
21:48gone from
21:49being 50%
21:50to being 10%.
21:52Similarly that
21:53was Greenland
21:53when we last
21:54talked and
21:55that's not
21:55the topic
21:56anymore.
21:57That ended.
21:57That aggression
21:58was not
21:58happening at
21:59this time.
21:59And now we
22:00have the Iran
22:00conflict.
22:01This is serious.
22:03It's the biggest
22:03oil shock to
22:05the world.
22:05It's bigger than
22:06what we saw
22:06during the 1970s
22:08even if nothing
22:09else happens
22:09in terms of
22:10the restriction
22:12in terms of
22:13oil and gas
22:14coming onto
22:14the market.
22:15This is the
22:16largest shock
22:17that the world
22:18has experienced.
22:18But that said
22:19the world is in
22:20a very different
22:21place also in
22:22terms of the
22:22dependence of
22:23economies on
22:24the source of
22:25energy.
22:26So the effect
22:27right now if
22:29everything gets
22:30resolved in the
22:31next week or so
22:32which again there's
22:33a very good
22:33likelihood that
22:34could happen.
22:35We're talking
22:36about global
22:36growth being
22:37lower by about
22:380.3 percentage
22:39points.
22:39That's what is in
22:41the IMF's
22:42current forecast.
22:43But on the
22:44other hand we
22:45end up in a
22:45world where
22:46instead of
22:46oil averaging
22:47like $80 or
22:48$85 for this
22:49year it goes
22:50up to say
22:51$100.
22:52Then we have
22:53growth coming
22:53down to 2.5%
22:55for the world
22:55which is you
22:56know in the
22:57absence of this
22:58conflict it would
22:58have been 3.4%.
23:00So that would be
23:01really substantial
23:02the cut.
23:03But as of now
23:04just like when
23:05we last talked
23:06during the time
23:07of the tariffs
23:07in the time
23:08of Greenland
23:08that we could
23:10see this
23:11quieten down
23:12even though we
23:13are not going
23:14to return to
23:15$70 of oil
23:16that we had
23:16before the
23:17conflict started.
23:18I think one
23:18of the concerns
23:19of course is
23:20the fact that
23:20therefore the
23:21longer this
23:22conflict goes
23:23on the more
23:24the world gets
23:25disrupted including
23:26countries like
23:27India which are
23:27heavily dependent
23:28on oil coming
23:30through the
23:30straight of
23:31hormones not
23:31just India but
23:32countries like
23:32China, Japan,
23:33a number of
23:34Asian economies.
23:35In a sense what
23:36you are saying
23:37and correct me
23:38if I'm wrong
23:38is that if
23:39this gets
23:40resolved in
23:41the next week
23:42the impact
23:44will be minimal
23:45but if it
23:46stretches on
23:47and the
23:47uncertainty
23:48stretches on
23:49one day
23:49we are told
23:50the strait
23:50will be open
23:51next day
23:52it's closed
23:52then you are
23:53saying the
23:54impact could
23:55be far reaching
23:56am I correct?
23:56That is correct
23:57the impact
23:58could be much
23:58larger.
23:59In the case
23:59of India
24:00two things
24:00upset each
24:01other.
24:02The Iran
24:02conflict was
24:04a negative
24:04shock for India
24:05but on the
24:05other hand
24:06because of
24:07the Supreme
24:07Court ruling
24:08and tariffs
24:09coming down
24:09from 50%
24:10to 10%
24:11that was a
24:12positive event
24:13and so the
24:13combination was
24:14a bit of a
24:14wash and
24:15India's economy
24:16is expected to
24:17grow at around
24:176.5%
24:18for this fiscal
24:20year.
24:20But if there
24:21is much more
24:22disruption and
24:22it's because
24:23India relies on
24:24the Middle East
24:25so much for
24:26oil, also for
24:27its fertilizers,
24:29it's not just
24:30about the price
24:30effect but if you
24:31just don't have
24:31the supply and
24:32you have supply
24:32disruption for
24:33example to
24:34LPG, that is
24:36going to
24:36complicate production
24:37in India and
24:38going to be much
24:39more consequential.
24:40But that's going
24:41to require a much
24:42longer duration for
24:43this conflict.
24:44So are we, I
24:45mean is the worst
24:45case scenario a
24:46potential triple
24:47whammy which is
24:48food, fuel and
24:50fertilizer.
24:51I mean the Indian
24:52government has kept
24:53fuel prices in
24:54check, we don't
24:54know what will
24:55happen once
24:55elections are over
24:56at the end of the
24:57month.
24:57And there's the
24:58fear that there
24:59could be this
24:59triple whammy of
25:00food, fuel and
25:02fertilizer.
25:03Is that something
25:04that you believe
25:05could actually be
25:07the real concern
25:08going ahead?
25:09In the matter of
25:10fuel, I don't
25:11think it's
25:11sustainable for
25:12the Indian
25:12government to
25:13continue to
25:14subsidize fuel
25:15prices for a
25:16very long time.
25:17It's not
25:18sustainable.
25:18It's not
25:18sustainable just
25:19given the impact
25:20on the fiscal
25:21deficit.
25:21So at some
25:23point they will
25:23have to pass
25:24through some of
25:25that into what
25:27prices consumers
25:27pay.
25:28May not be the
25:29full amount but
25:30certainly more than
25:31what's happening at
25:32this moment.
25:33With fertilizer
25:33prices, they have
25:35some long-term
25:35contracts that helps
25:36in the interim.
25:38But again, depending
25:39upon if there's
25:40going to be just
25:41this blockage of
25:42the Strait of Hormuz
25:43then you're not even
25:44going to get the
25:44supplies and I think
25:45that's the bigger
25:46damage.
25:47And if this
25:48continues for much
25:49longer, it's usually
25:50not just food, fuel
25:52and fertilizers.
25:53The problem is
25:53financial conditions
25:54could tighten much
25:55more than what we've
25:56seen right now.
25:57in the world
25:57including the
25:59pressure on the
25:59rupee which has
26:00been there for a
26:01little while.
26:01But you could see
26:02much more not just
26:03on the rupee but
26:04on many other
26:04currencies.
26:05That tightening of
26:06financial conditions
26:07has not happened at
26:09this time.
26:09So what's the
26:10biggest concern?
26:11Is it that there
26:12could be that the
26:15inflationary pressures
26:16now continue to
26:17grow?
26:18Is it that our
26:18current account
26:19deficit continues to
26:21take a hit?
26:22Is it the rupee
26:22which continues to
26:24decline?
26:26where do you
26:27believe is the real
26:28pressure point at
26:29the moment?
26:30Because the
26:30government over the
26:31last 11 years has
26:32done reasonably well
26:33on handling
26:33inflation.
26:34Suddenly there's a
26:35fear that inflation
26:36if this conflict
26:37goes on longer
26:38will reach a stage
26:40where it will start
26:41genuinely impacting
26:43other sectors of the
26:44economy, even
26:45possibly domestic
26:46demand.
26:46Do you believe India
26:48is in a better
26:48position than some
26:49of the emerging
26:50markets or we
26:51also are really
26:53caught in the
26:54crosshairs of what's
26:54happening in West
26:55Asia?
26:55I think the immediate
26:57impact for the
26:57Indian economy is
26:58what's happening
26:59with the current
27:00account, the
27:00balance of payments,
27:03the pressure in
27:04terms of the
27:05impact on the
27:06rupee.
27:07That's where it's
27:08most impactful and
27:09you've seen the
27:09RBI put measures in
27:11place to try to
27:11contain the effect
27:12on the exchange
27:14rate.
27:14But given that
27:15India is a big
27:17importer of oil,
27:18that's the number
27:18one category, it's
27:19going to affect the
27:21size of the
27:22account.
27:23And given that
27:24there's not that
27:25much appetite for
27:26foreign capital
27:26coming into India
27:27at this current
27:28moment, that's
27:29where the pressure
27:30is.
27:30The second piece
27:31is on inflation.
27:33As of now,
27:34because there's no
27:36increase that we're
27:37seeing at the pump
27:38in terms of fuel
27:38prices because of the
27:40government basically
27:41subsidizing it, I
27:42don't expect that
27:43that will last
27:44forever, this is
27:45going to go up, so
27:46we will see more
27:47of an effect on
27:48inflation.
27:49The good news is
27:50that because inflation
27:51expectations have
27:52come down in India,
27:53they are well
27:54behaved, the RBI has
27:56some leeway to
27:57wait and see that
27:58maybe if there is a
28:00resolution of this
28:01conflict and gas
28:02prices come down,
28:03the effect on
28:03inflation will not be
28:04that big.
28:05So they have some
28:07space to wait and
28:08see.
28:09The price for Indian
28:09economy is that it
28:10is a larger domestic
28:12market.
28:13And so a lot of
28:14its growth actually
28:15comes from domestic
28:16demand.
28:172025 was a good year
28:18in terms of domestic
28:19demand for the Indian
28:20economy.
28:21The monsoon was very
28:22good last year, too.
28:23That helped.
28:24Monsoon is less good
28:26this year.
28:26That's a bit of a
28:27negative.
28:28But again, another
28:30source of concern which
28:31also affects, in a
28:33sense, the balance of
28:34payments and the
28:34current account is what's
28:36happening with AI and
28:38the consequences of
28:39that for call
28:42centers, for BPOs more
28:43generally, because I
28:44think that's going to be
28:45a source of pressure,
28:46too.
28:47Because the IMF
28:48projections certainly
28:49seem to suggest that
28:51India will still
28:52continue to grow in
28:54that 6.4, 6.5 percent
28:56growth rate, 26, 27.
28:58Will that, in your view,
28:59have to be revised if
29:01this conflict stretches
29:02into May, June and
29:04beyond?
29:04If this conflict
29:05stretches absolutely
29:06into May, June, we are
29:08talking about a much
29:09more serious impact on
29:11all economies.
29:12How serious is the
29:13impact, in your view?
29:14So, as a rule of
29:18thumb, right now the
29:19expectation is that the
29:21price of oil is going
29:22to be around between
29:23$80 and $85 for the
29:24rest of the year, right?
29:25On average, on
29:26average.
29:27If that number gets to
29:28about $100, we're
29:30talking about growth for
29:32the world economy, which
29:33is right now, the
29:34projected at 3.1 percent
29:36dropping to 2.5 percent.
29:38So, in that scenario,
29:40you know, that's a case
29:41when economies like
29:43India, that rely on the
29:45Middle East heavily, will
29:47have a much severe impact
29:48on their growth.
29:49Is there also the
29:50possibility that the
29:51central bank also runs
29:53out of ammunition if oil
29:55remains at elevated
29:56levels?
29:56If oil continues to
29:57climb well over $100 a
29:59barrel, then the central
30:00bank also is running out
30:02of ammunition.
30:03The fear, of course, is
30:05debts are going to be
30:06mounting, fiscal headspace
30:08reduces.
30:09Are these all concerns
30:10that every economy, not
30:12just India, across the
30:14world, just look across our
30:15border with Pakistan,
30:16playing the role of a
30:17mediator, but the economy
30:18is in a complete mess at
30:20the moment?
30:20So, are you saying that
30:22every country now will have
30:24to be very, very cautious
30:25on where we spend our
30:27money, we'll have to look
30:28very closely at energy
30:30diversification, that this
30:31is in a moment also a
30:32challenge, but an
30:33opportunity?
30:34Well, supply shocks are not
30:37good news for anybody.
30:39And in that environment,
30:40there will be, there is
30:41pain.
30:42So, it's not one of those
30:43things that you can just,
30:45you know, fix easily.
30:47So, when it comes
30:48specifically to the central
30:49bank, allowing the exchange
30:51rate to adjust is, in the
30:54face of a real supply shock,
30:56which this is, would be the
30:58right course of action.
31:00Now, India has a sizable
31:01amount of foreign exchange
31:02reserves, and that's great,
31:04but that doesn't mean one
31:05should be using those
31:06reserves to intervene heavily
31:09in the case of the
31:10currency.
31:10It's only in extraordinary
31:12circumstances when it looks
31:14like there's some non-
31:14fundamental noise happening
31:16that you would want to
31:18intervene in the currency.
31:19But otherwise, you really
31:20are, you know, you should
31:22be letting the currency
31:24adjust, because that's the
31:25source of resilience also
31:27for the country.
31:28There are consequences in
31:29terms of inflation, but
31:30that's a trade-off that
31:31countries will have to
31:32deal with.
31:33So, for countries like
31:34India, what then is the
31:35real strategy to de-risk in
31:37a way?
31:38Critical imports that we
31:39have at the moment, like
31:40fertilizers, like energy,
31:42that 50% of our oil, for
31:43example, comes through the
31:44Strait of Hormuz, 80% of
31:46our LNG comes from the
31:48Strait of Hormuz in that
31:49environment.
31:50How does one, India, how
31:52does a country like India
31:53de-risk?
31:54Is it simply look for
31:55alternative sources?
31:56China seems to have
31:57managed by looking at
31:59renewables as a major
32:00source of their energy
32:02needs.
32:03In that sense, is this an
32:04opportunity?
32:05And is there going to be a
32:07big time lag before we can
32:08really catch up?
32:09And that's the real worry
32:11that we should have over the
32:12next 12 months, 18 months.
32:13Energy independence is going
32:15to be very critical for
32:16India.
32:17The good news is that India
32:18already is relying more and
32:21more on renewables for this
32:23energy and pushing harder on
32:25that front, especially solar,
32:27where there's plenty of that,
32:28reducing the cost of it,
32:30efficient batteries and so on.
32:32That's going to be very
32:33important because the more that
32:34you can de-risk from having to
32:37rely on imported energy, the
32:39better it's going to be for
32:41India.
32:42And again, continuing more
32:43broadly the reforms, including
32:45infrastructure build out, which
32:47sitting in Mumbai, we were just
32:49talking about that.
32:49It's pretty remarkable, the
32:51infrastructure that has been
32:52built in the city.
32:54I think that's the kind of
32:55action that will help sustain
32:57growth and keep up growth in
32:59India.
32:59There's a fear, though, that
33:01this could also be a moment that
33:03will widen inequalities once
33:05again, that you've got the
33:08African economies, emerging
33:09market economies, which are
33:11going to find it far more
33:12difficult to handle this
33:15situation and, indeed, the
33:16weaponization of uncertainty
33:18because with Donald Trump, we
33:19just don't know what happens
33:21next, even on trade.
33:22We don't know whether the trade
33:25deal will actually materialize
33:27in the end between India and
33:29the United States.
33:29Do you, therefore, see a
33:31widening divide first between the
33:33emerging market economies and the
33:36Western economies in the year
33:37ahead?
33:38The shock is absolutely
33:39generating greater inequality
33:42between the developed world and
33:44the developing world.
33:45The developing world relies a lot
33:47also on food imports.
33:49With fertilizer prices going up and
33:51the shortages in fertilizers, we're
33:53not seeing it right now because it
33:55takes about six months or so before
33:56you show up in food prices.
33:58That effect is going to be there.
33:59And countries that suffer from food
34:01insecurity are the low-income
34:04countries.
34:04So the effect on them is really
34:08consequential.
34:09We have to get used to living in
34:11this world of uncertainty.
34:12We've had it.
34:132025 was a terribly uncertain year,
34:15but you can go back even further
34:17back to 2020.
34:19I mean, we've had the pandemic,
34:21then we had the war in Ukraine,
34:22which caused energy prices to
34:24shoot up.
34:24You know, you had the Silicon
34:25Valley bank problem in the U.S.,
34:28which created ripples in terms of
34:30financial conditions, tariffs, and now
34:32the Iran conflict.
34:34So I think we are certainly in a more
34:36volatile world, a more uncertain
34:38world, and everybody, including
34:41companies and policymakers, have to
34:43learn to live with this level of
34:45uncertainty.
34:45You know, because even on tariffs,
34:47three months ago we were talking
34:49about the weaponization of tariffs.
34:51Are you confident now that the United
34:54States or this Trump administration
34:56will not once again use tariffs as a
34:59weapon to, as part of their foreign
35:01policy agenda, is that a concern that
35:04we could go back, or do you believe
35:06that this war, in a sense, will be a
35:08wake-up call, that you can't now use
35:10tariffs to once again unhinge the world
35:13in the way it was unhinged a few
35:15months ago?
35:15I think the constraint that has come
35:17has come from the U.S. Supreme
35:19Court.
35:19So the Supreme Court recently ruled that
35:23the tariffs that Trump had implemented,
35:26which was a part of this, of a very
35:28particular AIPA procedure, that was
35:33illegal.
35:34What does that mean?
35:35That basically means that it's going to
35:36be much harder for any president in the
35:40United States to just, on a whim, wake up
35:42and say that we're going to put tariffs
35:44of X amount on a country.
35:46There are other rules that they can rely on.
35:49There are other laws that they can rely on,
35:50other Section 3.1, for example.
35:52But that requires some procedure, which
35:55is you have to do some assessment about
35:57the damage that's occurring to your
35:59industry.
35:59So that tool exists in terms of being
36:02able to use it, but it's going to have
36:04to be, you know, less on an instantaneous
36:10basis.
36:11It's going to require some more time to be
36:13able to implement.
36:14Now, China has imposed, Professor
36:17Gopinath, export bans on diesel, gasoline,
36:20jet fuel since March 12th.
36:23While also reinforcing its dominance on
36:26clean energy supply chains.
36:28So it almost seems as if China is in some
36:32way actually the net net gainer, many
36:35believe, from the war.
36:36That the United States finds itself in a
36:38difficult situation.
36:39There's a fear of inflation growing in the
36:43U.S.
36:43And China finds itself relatively insulated
36:47from what's happening.
36:47Do you go along with that?
36:49No, not really.
36:50Because firstly, in the case of the U.S., the U.S., in
36:53terms of the economic impact, is quite minimal.
36:57Being a net energy exporter, it is minimal.
37:00Now, yes, the fact that prices are going up, that I think is
37:04actually costly, not just from the economic point of view,
37:06but from the political point of view for the current
37:08administration, that is there.
37:10But the overall effect on the economy is really small.
37:14China is actually affected more by this conflict than the U.S. is.
37:18But China has other suppliers.
37:21I mean, they buy a lot from Russia, so they don't rely that heavily
37:24necessarily on the Middle East, and they have a large amount of reserves.
37:29But this is definitely costlier for China than it is for the U.S.
37:33One of the concerns in India is also markets.
37:35If you look at what's happening with markets, there's been an FII outflow in this country
37:40over the last few months.
37:41And there's a fear that unless there's greater certainty and predictability in the global economy,
37:47Indian markets will also continue to remain uncertain.
37:50Do you go along with that, while we're seeing other markets, including the U.S.
37:56perhaps being far more resilient, is the Indian market far more vulnerable
38:00to what's happening in West Asia?
38:02So the Indian market has been impacted, like many other markets, by the Iran conflict,
38:07by this fact that you've had this sudden risk-off environment right now,
38:12which is, with uncertainty, capital pulling out of all emerging markets,
38:17going back into the U.S.
38:19because that is a common factor.
38:21But in addition, India, I think, is also being looked at as a country where,
38:27especially when you look at equities, just liquid assets, that they are expensive.
38:32If you look at, it's not one of those places where you look at it and you say,
38:35well, that looks cheap and I can make a good return on there.
38:38So it has been viewed traditionally as being expensive.
38:41It continues to be viewed as that.
38:43And then if you look at foreign direct investment, again,
38:45everybody I know wants to invest in India, but they still talk about how difficult it is to do that,
38:53the ease of doing business, the difficulty with acquiring land.
38:56So in the absence of attractive enough asset classes to put your money in,
39:03and the fact that interest rates in the U.S. are likely to stay higher for a longer period of
39:09time
39:10than was expected before this conflict, I think both of those are weighing against the rupee.
39:14So in a way, is this a challenge, again, for India to get its act together in terms of actually
39:20using this
39:21as a moment to ensure ease of doing business, attract investments,
39:25by actually showing that you are willing to walk the talk on some of the reforms that have been brought
39:32in in 2025?
39:33A lot of good reforms have happened, but there is a lot more that needs to be done.
39:37This is the moment.
39:38There is so much interest in India in terms of diversifying out of China,
39:44just as being a good partner to work with, but there are still way too many hurdles.
39:49It's also important to have a predictive kind of environment where you don't have to worry about retroactive taxation.
39:56You don't have to worry about sudden changes in the rule of law.
39:59Therefore, I think that is still viewed as being incomplete in terms of making sure that you can have that
40:07predictability.
40:07But at the same time, are we staring at a more fragmented, less predictable global economy?
40:12And what does that do to economists and their projections?
40:16Does that make it just simply far more difficult for the IMF and the World Bank
40:20to even look at what happens three months, six months down the line?
40:23Well, it fundamentally changes the way these institutions are talking about the outlook.
40:29So when I was there at the beginning, back this was 2019 and 2020,
40:33the IMF used to put out what they call a forecast for the world.
40:37Now they don't put out a forecast.
40:39They put out what they call a reference scenario, which is one possible outcome, which they think is likely.
40:45But this time they also put out an adverse scenario and they put out a severe scenario.
40:49So I expect all forecasters around the world at this point are basically constructing scenarios
40:55because the world is so uncertain.
40:57No, because I look at World Bank projections.
40:59In the absence of the conflict, GDP growth projected at 7.2%.
41:03Growth now projected at 6.6% for FY26-27, assuming, of course, an extended disruption in oil supply
41:14till at least the end of the year.
41:15How seriously should we take these projections?
41:17Are economists also simply unable to understand, are having to work with this unpredictability
41:25and thereby constantly having to change their predictions?
41:29I think economists only know as much about possible scenarios as most people do, right?
41:34I mean, at this point, it's impossible, for instance, right now, to know what's going to be the outcome
41:39of the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz.
41:46So one makes assumptions about it.
41:48But yes, the idea is to remain focused on the scenarios, to build resilience in the economy,
41:54to clearly to diversify sources of supply.
41:57Energy independence is hugely important.
41:59And I think a country like India, which has a large domestic market, strong domestic demand,
42:04reforms at home can be a great source of resilience.
42:09So in conclusion, in your assessment, how significant is the risk to the twin pressures
42:14that everyone is talking about post this West Asia war for India,
42:18higher oil import bills and exchange rate volatility?
42:21These are the two twin, are these the twin pressures that actually need to be looked at
42:26and monitored very carefully?
42:28The pressure on India's current account and on the rupee is meaningful.
42:34Like I said, this is an actual fundamental shock of a supply shock.
42:38Even if the war ends tomorrow, we're not seeing oil prices going back to the pre-war level.
42:43It's going to be higher.
42:44There is going to be some pass through into inflation.
42:47That's certainly the case.
42:48Ensuring that India is able to continue to maintain the good macro stability that it has gotten to,
42:53which is being able to keep inflation within the band, while at the same time also ensuring that fiscals,
43:00deficits, which are doing well at the central government level, but not at the state levels,
43:04because it certainly needs more action at that front, and the more broad-based reforms,
43:10including judicial reforms, including in terms of continuing the infrastructure buildup,
43:14land reforms, all of that is what it will take.
43:18So, Professor Gopinath, if you were advising the Modi government, one, two, three,
43:22what are the three things you would tell them that they need to do for FY26-27
43:29that will give a sense that India is on the right track?
43:34Given this extreme volatility that we are seeing around us,
43:39how do you, in a way, mitigate the current account deficit
43:46without sacrificing, compromising on growth targets?
43:50I would first simply just recognize the fact that this is a negative shock for the Indian economy.
43:56There is no getting around the fact that when you are a large importer of fuel
43:59and prices have gone up as much as they have,
44:02there will be a deterioration in the current account.
44:05That requires accepting that there will be pressure on the repeat to depreciate.
44:09I don't see an argument to go and use up very expensive foreign exchange reserves
44:14to go and defend the currency.
44:16This is a shock that has to be, in a sense, born.
44:19On the fiscal front, at some point,
44:22they will have to let prices at the pump go up by some amount,
44:25because otherwise the effect on the fiscal deficit is going to be very consequential.
44:30But I think what India has done well, like I said,
44:33is in the macro stability, in terms of macro stability,
44:36which is keeping inflation within the inflation band,
44:39fiscal at the central level has been well managed,
44:42not so much at the state level.
44:44So somehow incentivizing the states to be able to keep their deficits small,
44:48super important.
44:49And continuing to engage with the world,
44:51and I think India is doing that nicely on the trade front, too,
44:55which is having deals with the European Union,
44:58you know, with South Korea recently,
44:59but more generally, working with other countries,
45:02creating more trade agreements with them,
45:05building economic relations with them,
45:07will all be very positive.
45:08So in a way, what you're saying is build your bilateral trade deals.
45:12Don't just rely on multilateral trade arrangements anymore.
45:16Don't rely on the United States anymore, presumably.
45:20A piece of advice for Donald Trump that you would give,
45:23since he's at the center of it all.
45:25I mean, this weaponizing of uncertainty, surely,
45:28is the last thing the world needs.
45:31So, firstly, I do think India and the U.S.
45:34should absolutely work together.
45:35They're both important large economies,
45:37and it's good for both of them and for the world
45:40that they remain engaged.
45:42In the case of Trump, I mean,
45:44he's somebody who likes to have low interest rates,
45:48because, as you know, he keeps pushing for that.
45:51He's going to get that if he's able to prevent inflation from going up.
45:54That is now a concern in the U.S.
45:57And so the more he can do to keep,
45:59because he wants to keep prices low,
46:01and he wants prosperity and abundance in the U.S. economy,
46:04I think less of this high levels of volatility and uncertainty
46:09would be very valuable.
46:11You know, Professor Gopidar,
46:13the last time you were interviewed by India Today,
46:15you went viral because of your comments on environment
46:17and the climate in particular, pollution,
46:19which you had said was integral to ensuring the ease of doing business.
46:23You needed to ensure clean air.
46:25You still stick by that.
46:26Are you, is the air that you are breathing in Mumbai
46:31a bit better than what you breathe in Delhi?
46:33And do you believe that's, again,
46:35I mean, these are going to be the future challenges,
46:37presumably not just to India,
46:39but other countries in the region as well?
46:41Oh, no, absolutely.
46:42I believe that addressing pollution in India
46:46will give you a great bang for the buck.
46:50The economic consequences are meaningful.
46:53Obviously, depending upon the time of the year,
46:55it's worse winters in Delhi.
46:57When I was there, it was really, really bad.
47:00I mean, it's just, that's again,
47:02a solvable problem
47:04and the government should certainly address it.
47:06I'm going to leave it there.
47:08You've been more diplomatic this time
47:09when you've spoken about the climate crisis.
47:12At that time, you were seen as someone
47:13who was making it very clear,
47:14if you don't get that right,
47:16then you're not going to attract the kind of investments
47:18that India really needs at the moment.
47:21But I appreciate you joining us again
47:23at a time, as I said, of great global uncertainty.
47:26Three months ago, it was Greenland.
47:28Now it's even more worrying
47:31with what's been happening in Iran.
47:33Thank you very much, Professor Gopinath,
47:36for joining me on the show today.
47:37Thank you, Rajdeep.
47:42Okay, Gita Gopinath there speaking to us.
47:45We've had lots of guests from across India
47:47and the world discussing the West Asia war
47:49over the last six weeks.
47:51News without the noise.
47:52When we return,
47:53a little bit of what's happening on the election trail.
47:56Remember, campaigning has now ended
47:57for the first round in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
48:00But the issue of voters
48:01who are still struggling to get their right to vote
48:04in Bengal remains.
48:06When will they get their right to vote?
48:08That's when we return.
48:15Let's get you all that's been happening
48:17on the campaign trail.
48:19Remember, campaigning wrapped up today
48:20for the elections in West Bengal's first phase
48:23and Tamil Nadu as both states gear up
48:25for crucial polling on April 23rd.
48:28The campaign trail fell silent in both the states
48:30with the high-stakes polling set for
48:34Thursday, 152 seats in Bengal.
48:36All 234 constituencies in Tamil Nadu
48:38are heading to the ballot
48:39as the electoral battle enters a decisive phase.
48:42Union Home Minister Amit Shah
48:44sparked a controversy
48:45with once again the Didi Didi Jai
48:48made by Prime Minister Modi
48:49in the last elections,
48:50this time at Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
48:53Yet again, the Trinamul Congress
48:54hit back accusing the BJP
48:56of disrespecting a woman chief minister
48:58and double standards ahead
48:59of crucial polling.
49:01With elections around the corner,
49:03the Election Commission of India
49:04has cracked down hard in West Bengal
49:06banning bike rallies,
49:07restricting motorcycle movement
49:09from 6pm to 6am,
49:11allowing exceptions only in emergencies,
49:13they say,
49:14to ensure peaceful polling.
49:16Security being tightened across the state.
49:18Congress leader KC Venugopal
49:20today moved a privileged motion
49:22against Prime Minister Narendra Modi,
49:23alleging his national address
49:25undermined parliamentary privilege
49:26by questioning opposition MPs
49:28after a key constitutional amendment
49:31that linked women's reservation
49:32to deal limitation
49:33was defeated in Parliament.
49:36On the last day of the campaign,
49:39Congress Chief Malik Arjun Kharge
49:42sparked a controversy
49:43after calling Prime Minister Narendra Modi
49:45a terrorist
49:46while targeting the AIDMK
49:48over its alliance with the BJP
49:49ahead of the Tamil Nadu elections.
49:50Facing a backlash,
49:52Kharge clarified later,
49:53claiming that he meant
49:54the Prime Minister
49:55terrorizes political opponents
49:57using central agencies.
50:00Now, today was the last day
50:06for West Bengal's tribunals
50:08to clear names
50:09that have been deleted
50:10from the voter list
50:11ahead of the first phase of polls in Bengal.
50:13There are at least 27 lakh names
50:15that are still up for adjudication.
50:17Over 34 lakh appeals
50:19have also been filed with tribunals.
50:21But no information
50:22has been made public
50:23about the number of appeals
50:24that have been cleared
50:25in West Bengal.
50:27The tribunals will continue working
50:28till the second phase of polling,
50:30but there are a question mark.
50:31Are they working simply too slowly
50:33to meet the deadline?
50:35And will lakhs of voters,
50:37as a result,
50:37lose out their right to vote?
50:40Our reporters have this special report.
50:44The deadline for clearing appeals
50:47of deleted voters
50:47ahead of the first phase of voting
50:49in Bengal ends.
50:51Those left out
50:52won't be able to cast their votes.
50:54With the tribunals
50:56not conducting physical hearings,
50:58there was only a trickle
50:59of visitors to the office
51:00where the appeals were being decided.
51:03Hassan Khan,
51:05a student from Berdwan,
51:06left home at 4A
51:08and travelled 150 kilometres
51:10to reach the Jokha tribunal,
51:12driven by the fear
51:13of losing his mandate.
51:15He still has hope
51:16as his constituency
51:17votes in the second phase.
51:20In the DM office,
51:21we had submitted
51:23online.
51:25We had submitted
51:29online.
51:29But after that,
51:31there was no call
51:31or no call.
51:33So we came to see
51:35what happened
51:36or what happened
51:36or what happened.
51:38Rohan Mukherjee,
51:39an IT professional,
51:40is foxed
51:41by the lack
51:41of transparency.
51:43Despite being tech-savvy,
51:45Rohan found the process
51:46of appeals
51:47opaque
51:47and frustrating.
51:50I essentially called
51:51the BLO
51:52when I did not see
51:54my names
51:55in the first two lists.
51:57And what he mentioned
51:59that he is currently
52:00looking into the matter.
52:02He would talk
52:03to his supervisors
52:04and after that,
52:05he did not directly
52:06call me.
52:08He called
52:09or I think
52:10messaged my father
52:11that the name
52:12got deleted
52:13and you have
52:14to do other procedure.
52:16He did not actually
52:16mention what is
52:17the procedure
52:18that we need
52:18to follow.
52:19So right now,
52:20we are sort of in doubt.
52:23Minajul Hussain,
52:24a primary school teacher,
52:25is a booth-level officer
52:27in the Sitai
52:27Assembly constituency.
52:29On Thursday,
52:30when voting takes place,
52:31he will be assisting voters
52:33at the booth.
52:34In an election,
52:35he may not be able
52:36to vote himself
52:37if his name
52:38is not cleared
52:39by the tribunal.
52:56Over 60 lakh voters
52:58were put under
52:59an adjudication process,
53:00at the end of which
53:01over 27 lakh names
53:03were deleted.
53:04The deletions
53:05were based on
53:06what the EC called
53:07logical discrepancies.
53:10A software-driven process
53:12that wasn't followed
53:13in other states.
53:15Now their fate
53:16hangs in the balance.
53:19It is the day
53:21of final mandate
53:22for lakhs of people.
53:23But here,
53:24the air still remains
53:25to be thick
53:26and doubtful.
53:27As we stand outside
53:28this tribunal,
53:29which is all set
53:30to release
53:31the final list
53:32that will determine
53:33the names
53:34of those people
53:35who will be allowed
53:35to cast their mandate
53:37in the first phase
53:38of West Bengal
53:39Assembly elections.
53:40Remember,
53:41these names
53:42are not mere
53:43list of ledgers,
53:45but this is going
53:46to be their ticket
53:48to the democratic process.
53:50However,
53:50there are lack of people
53:51still awaiting
53:53a formal response
53:54from the election commission
53:56and for them,
53:57the uncertainty
53:58looms large.
53:59With video journalist
54:00Leshan Loth,
54:01Tapu Sengupta,
54:02for India Today
54:03in Kolkata.
54:07Okay,
54:08that's about all
54:08that we could pack in
54:10on the show today.
54:11Thanks very much
54:12for watching.
54:13As always,
54:13stay safe,
54:14stay well.
54:15Thanks for your company.
54:17Good night.
54:18Shubratri.
54:18Jai Hind.
54:19Namaskar.
54:20That was the news
54:21without the noise.
54:22Bye for now.
54:23Bye for now.
54:23Bye for now.
Comments