00:00Hello, welcome to your week ahead forecast. If you're watching on YouTube, don't forget to hit subscribe.
00:05Many of us started the working week at or around freezing.
00:08It will get warmer both by day and by night over the next few days.
00:13But with rising temperatures, also we'll see rising air and a fair few showers.
00:18The bigger picture shows we're between weather systems, high pressure down to the southwest and up to the northeast,
00:24low pressure down to the southeast and up to the northwest.
00:27We're sort of in what's called a cull between these weather systems.
00:32But actually, our weather is going to be more dictated by what's behind me.
00:35Low pressure systems out in the Atlantic and a pretty active jet stream.
00:40Now, it's in this U-shape, this trough, which is helping to keep this low pressure fairly active.
00:46But instead of throwing it straight across the UK, the whole system kind of bodily moves from west to east.
00:52So that low only makes slow progress. And then as the jet stream weakens, the low drifts up to the
00:58north.
00:58It'll still throw us plenty of weather fronts and showers over the next few days.
01:02And then another one follows on behind. But again, not really powered at this stage by a particularly lively jet
01:08stream.
01:09And then behind that, the potential for high pressure to nudge in as we get towards the weekend.
01:14But more on that in a moment. For this week, low pressure sitting to the northwest.
01:19So the wind's mostly coming in from the west or the southwest, which means it'll be western areas that see
01:25the wettest weather as those weather fronts come in.
01:28This is the cumulative rainfall through the course of the week.
01:31And by the time we get to the end of the working week, you can see that the western areas,
01:36particularly the hills of Wales, northwest England and western Scotland,
01:40along with Northern Ireland, seeing the heaviest of the rainfall through the course of the week,
01:44whereas parts of eastern England may not see much at all.
01:48In fact, we've got that east-west split as we start Tuesday.
01:51Now, I did say it was going to get warmer, but still cold enough on Tuesday morning for some pockets
01:57of frost
01:57over parts of eastern England and eastern Scotland for sure.
02:00Won't be as cold as Monday morning for the west because the first of those weather fronts will have moved
02:04in,
02:05bringing a fairly drab start.
02:07And that cloud will invade, taking over the sunshine for much of the Midlands,
02:11Northern England, Northern Ireland as we go through the morning.
02:14The rain fairly patchy in nature and making slow progress.
02:18But I suspect parts of eastern England, much of eastern England, much of northern Scotland,
02:23staying dry and bright for most of Tuesday.
02:25The winds will start to strengthen, however, and you can see the outbreaks of rain,
02:30although patchy and sporadic, will spread to many areas by the end of the afternoon.
02:35That breeze continuing to pick up as well, bringing in the milder air.
02:39So, yes, a cold start in the east, but by the afternoon we should be close to average where we
02:43hang on to some sunny spells.
02:46Further west, yeah, 13, 14 maybe, but feeling cooler with that gusty wind, particularly around those western coasts.
02:52That wind likely to strengthen further as we go through Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
02:57This main driving low, still sitting way out to the west, but throwing more weather fronts.
03:03Isobars pinching together, so the wind's picking up more during Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
03:08Quite a blustery, gusty and cloudy start to the day.
03:12With outbreaks of rain, it will be a much milder start, certainly compared to Monday morning and Wednesday,
03:17with temperatures in double digits for many.
03:20But bands of rain then edging in, some heavier bursts, those brighter colours there as that cold front moves in.
03:26Behind it, the afternoon looks a bit brighter for Wales and southwest England.
03:30Still quite blustery and gusty.
03:32A fair few showers packing into northern Ireland and western Scotland.
03:36In the east, a grey start may brighten up a little bit before this weather front gets in.
03:40And in here still, remember this is a cold front, in here some milder air.
03:44So, temperatures in eastern England could get into the high teens.
03:48And the same goes for the Murray coastline, with that wind coming over the hills here.
03:53Something of a fern effect.
03:54Temperatures here could also get into the high teens.
03:56But for most places, it's a fairly mild day as well.
04:00But again, there will be that brisk wind blowing.
04:03Now, the isobars do open up a little bit through Wednesday night and Thursday.
04:06So, the wind's perhaps not quite as strong.
04:08The first of those lows starts to pull away, and the other one hasn't quite arrived yet behind me.
04:13So, yes, still a mixture of sunshine and showers on Thursday, but a better chance of something a bit drier
04:19across the southern half of the UK.
04:21Certainly for the Midlands, northeast England, I suspect most of the day will be dry.
04:24A few showers likely across parts of the south.
04:27The main focus for the showers will be northern Ireland and western Scotland, where we'll see them blown in by
04:33a fairly brisk wind.
04:34Not as warm on Thursday compared to Wednesday, but still temperatures around, perhaps a touch above average.
04:41And, of course, this time of year, if you get any sunny spells, it does feel quite warm as that
04:46sun is gaining strength day by day.
04:49This next low gains a bit of strength on Thursday night and into Friday, and that will dictate our weather
04:54at the end of the week.
04:56Obviously, still a few days away, so the exact position of this front open to some doubt, but it's likely
05:01to bring a band of rain in from the west.
05:04And, again, with some fairly stiff winds blowing, some heavier bursts of rain likely in western Scotland, perhaps for West
05:09Wales, southwest England also.
05:12Ahead of that, some showers possible, but a lot of dry and bright weather over the Midlands and eastern England.
05:17The showers falling on behind could, again, be quite lively, with perhaps some thunderstorms thrown in for good measure.
05:23The wind still coming up from the south or southwest and still drawing up some milder air.
05:29So, again, on Friday, high teens, perhaps even up to 20 Celsius in and around the London area, and even
05:35further west under that cold front.
05:36Temperatures likely to be close to average in the low teens.
05:40Then, that low pressure as it exits away to the north as we head into the weekend.
05:45Still bringing showers, certainly, on Saturday across western areas.
05:48But, look at this.
05:49Chunky area of high pressure may just start to waddle in, influencing things as we go through the weekend.
05:56And, if that were to be the case, that would bring some fine, dry and sunny weather, particularly so for
06:01Sunday.
06:02Thanks for watching.
06:03Do keep up to date as we go through the rest of this week.
06:06The best way to do that, as I said at the start, if you're watching on YouTube, just hit subscribe.
06:10Do keep up to date as we go through the rest of this week.
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