- 16 hours ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 22/04/2026.
With high pressure dominating the UK weather scene we’ll not see much rain for the next week or so, but the position of the high makes all the difference to the daily weather.
Bringing you this 10 outlook is Alex Deakin.
With high pressure dominating the UK weather scene we’ll not see much rain for the next week or so, but the position of the high makes all the difference to the daily weather.
Bringing you this 10 outlook is Alex Deakin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome along to this 10-day trend that takes us knocking on the door of the first May bank holiday.
00:05Through the next 10 days, high pressure will definitely dominate.
00:09But although the weather patterns aren't changing hugely, there's always plenty to talk about.
00:14First up, let's have a game of spot the jet stream.
00:17It's certainly not in evidence anywhere close to the UK,
00:20except perhaps this weakish signal for a bit of a circulation out in the Atlantic.
00:25Now, the main push of the jet stream is to the north, way up to the north,
00:30much more further north than you'd expect at this time of year in particular,
00:34over northern parts of Greenland, arching its way down towards Scandinavia,
00:38which means in here it's a breeding ground for high pressure.
00:42And it's this high in one form or another that will tend to dominate our weather for at least the
00:47next 10 days.
00:48Now, it's dominating, but it's not completely in control with that little swirl in the jet stream,
00:53that little circulation out in the Atlantic.
00:55There is an air of low pressure trapped under that.
00:58It's not moving very far because there's not a lot to shift it.
01:00But it is generating some quite strong winds across southwest England.
01:04As the high sinks south, the low sticks in position.
01:07The isobar is still quite tightly packed.
01:09It will be quite as windy on Thursday as it was on Wednesday, but still a noticeable breeze here.
01:13And that low is trying desperately to throw weather fronts our way.
01:18Mostly, though, not really succeeding, perhaps just bringing a bit more cloud into parts of the west.
01:23As we go through the next four or five days, well, that high will dominate.
01:26It kind of just ambles its way around across the northeast, sinks a little further south.
01:31There are those weather fronts trying to push in.
01:33One could bring a few showers maybe into the far west on Friday night.
01:37So the high then rebuilds, reestablishes itself as the jet stream gets a bit more about it out in the
01:42Atlantic.
01:43But again, now it's just pushing low pressure systems up towards Iceland,
01:47whereas that high is still definitely dominating for us across the UK.
01:53Let's rewind then and see what that means for our weather over the next few days.
01:57With the high sitting here and the winds going clockwise around high pressure,
02:01we'll continue to feed in something of an easterly breeze along the coast of Lincolnshire,
02:06East Anglia and Kent.
02:07And as I mentioned, still quite brisk winds in the southwest.
02:10Not as strong as they were on Wednesday, but still quite noticeable here, bringing a cooler feel.
02:16But for central parts of England and parts of eastern South Wales,
02:20temperature is likely to get into the high teens, perhaps even low 20s.
02:23Whereas on that east coast, not only is there the threat of some low clouds dribbling in at times,
02:29there will be that breeze bringing a chillier feel.
02:32Further north under the centre of the high, the winds will be a lot lighter,
02:34so it perhaps won't feel as cold on the east coast of Scotland or the far northeast of England.
02:38Now, that breeze will bring in some moisture through Thursday night,
02:42and so Friday could start a bit foggy over parts of eastern England,
02:45but it doesn't last very long at all.
02:48There's enough power in the sun, and it's going to be quite shallow mist and fog.
02:51That will clear pretty rapidly.
02:54And by the time we get to Friday, the brisk winds continue to ease down.
02:58Still a bit of a chill on the Cromer, for example, on the north Norfolk coast,
03:03perhaps around the coast of Kent.
03:05But generally, those winds easing as the high pressure builds in further,
03:08so it won't be as cold in the eastern side of England on Friday compared to Thursday.
03:12And again, inland over England, we could easily see those temperatures getting up into the low 20s,
03:19parts of southern Scotland, northern Ireland, into the mid to high teens.
03:22The breeze a little lighter in the far southwest on Friday also,
03:25because that high pressure just moving its way in.
03:28So let's look at those temperatures in a bit more detail when compared to the average for the middle of
03:33April.
03:33You can see that chillier feel for Thursday from East Yorkshire down across Lincolnshire and into Norfolk,
03:40whereas for the west, we'll see those temperatures above average,
03:42although there will be still a bit of a wind chill in the far southwest.
03:45By Friday, well, we're losing the blue hues.
03:49So temperatures getting closer to average.
03:51They're just starting to lift a little bit along that eastern coast because those winds will be that much lighter.
03:56Many other places, four or five degrees above the average and probably getting warmer still as we head into the
04:02weekend.
04:03The high pressure is still there.
04:04There is a cold front lurking that might just threaten a few showers into the west later on on Friday
04:09night and into Saturday.
04:11But generally, high pressure is still in control because the jet stream is still up to the north.
04:16I'm going to show you this, though, because it does develop just this little area of low pressure.
04:19Notice how it interacts with the jet stream pushing south, a little bit of a left exit,
04:23and it spins up into an area of low pressure crossing through Scandinavia.
04:28Now, I'm showing you this partly because the weather's not doing a great deal across the UK,
04:32but also because it does do something that low as it spins up as it interacts with the jet stream.
04:37It does allow colder air to drift southward.
04:40So if we rewind and look at that low as it spins up behind it, these northerly winds take that
04:45cold air south,
04:46just threatening there to push into Shetland, for example.
04:51So we will see an impact from that low across the far northeast of Scotland.
04:55Another reason to show you that is because this time last week there was a lot of chatter in the
05:01press,
05:01in particular about that cold air driving south,
05:03and a few of the models were indicating that cold air could push right across the UK,
05:07whereas now it looks like a glancing blow at best,
05:10although it will bring a chill to Shetland undoubtedly on Saturday,
05:14with temperatures here only in single figures,
05:16and the northeast of the mainland with the winds coming in from the north may feel fairly fresh in Aberdeen.
05:21But as you head further south, with lighter winds, we're likely to be in the high teens again across southern
05:26Scotland,
05:27and further south across the Midlands, East Wales,
05:30as we could easily get to 22, maybe 23 degrees Celsius and warmer on that east coast by this stage
05:37as well.
05:37So temperatures are building as we go through the course of the weekend.
05:41By the time we get to Sunday, again, we'll see temperatures in the low 20s,
05:45perhaps again one or two spots getting to 23 Celsius.
05:49Again, the wind direction is absolutely crucial.
05:52We'll start to see the winds turning more to the south across the far north of Scotland,
05:56and generally the winds are fairly light under the influence of high pressure.
06:00So a lot of dry weather this weekend, chilly mornings, yes, but with some sunshine to come.
06:05Just wanted to show you this, the trajectories of where the air is coming from across the UK this weekend.
06:11This is for Exeter, showing the path of the air, getting into Exeter,
06:16tracing it back over the previous four days.
06:19You can see actually it does a bit of a loop-de-loop over Scotland,
06:21but this is where the air is coming from that we see at ground level on Saturday and Sunday in
06:28Exeter.
06:28It starts off in the Atlantic, moving around that area of high pressure.
06:33So I just wanted to show you that, that not all warm spells of weather in the UK
06:37are because the air is coming up from the south.
06:39It's actually starting out in the Atlantic,
06:41and the reason it's warming up is because the sun's getting stronger,
06:43so you get day-on-day heating, but also under that area of high pressure,
06:46the air is getting compressed, and that compression actually adds to the temperature rise as well.
06:52So yes, it's getting warmer through the weekend.
06:54High pressure is still in control as we head into Sunday.
06:58A weak little filament of the jet stream just perhaps throwing this weather front closer to northern Scotland,
07:04so as there's a wind switch here, we could see a bit more cloud and some showery rain on Sunday
07:08night
07:08over northern Scotland as that low moves through.
07:11But behind that, again, the high pressure starts to build once more,
07:16and is likely to dominate Monday, Tuesday, and beyond.
07:20These are the most likely pressure patterns for Tuesday of next week,
07:25all three of them with high pressure in control.
07:27Anticyclone means high pressure.
07:29This wall, if it was a bit further east, may be allowing weather fronts into the far northwest,
07:34but that is the third most likely scenario.
07:37Add up these three scenarios, they're coming up to 70% of high pressure in control,
07:42so a pretty strong signal that high pressure will remain in control,
07:45and of course with high pressure you've got that sinking air which stops clouds and the rain building up.
07:50As for Wednesday, well, it's pretty much the same three most likely scenarios,
07:54just a case of where is that high pressure building.
07:57The blue splodges, that's rainfall, and as you can see in all of these scenarios,
08:01there's not much rain expected in the UK, just with this one and that high, again,
08:05further east, the potential for low pressure to bring a bit of showery rain into the far west.
08:11Even for Thursday, anything that's really changing are the numbers and the percentage chance of these scenarios,
08:17but even here, we've still got pretty high numbers.
08:19So these top two with high pressure sitting close to or across the northeast of the UK,
08:24more than 50% chance, and this is more than a week away.
08:27So as I say, the models are in agreement.
08:29Quite a strong signal that the high pressure will last for most of next week.
08:33The big question is just where does it sit, and that's crucial because, as we've seen,
08:37that dictates the wind.
08:39And with chilly seas around the UK at this time of year,
08:42where the high pressure sits and where you get the breeze from the sea,
08:45that has a big impact on the feel of the day.
08:48So the devil will be in the detail about where that high pressure is sitting
08:51as to where there's a bit more cloud or where the temperatures are below average or significantly above.
08:57But what we can say about next week is that high pressure will be the dominant feature.
09:00So if you have to rain, well, you're not going to see much of it next week.
09:04Staying pretty dry, often quite sunny.
09:06Yes, there'll be chilly mornings where the winds are light.
09:09We're only in April, of course, heading into May.
09:12So some cold mornings, but some warm afternoons.
09:15But remember, the devil in the detail, that wind direction due to the position of the high
09:20will be key to those details about whether you're cloudy or whether you are warm.
09:25Just looking a little further ahead, because as I mentioned at the start,
09:28it is that bank holiday all weekend.
09:30This is the probabilistic pressure trend when we look at the ensemble,
09:34the models when we run them many, many times.
09:37And this is from the multi-model rock solid signal there.
09:41Red is high pressure.
09:42These are the previous model runs there, the dates going forward.
09:45So if you've watched the 10-day trend before, you'll have seen these.
09:47Rock solid red signal.
09:49High pressure in control throughout next week.
09:52Until we get to the weekend, where there are signs perhaps of it changing a little bit.
09:57But as you can see here, if you go back in time, the signs of that changing were a little
10:01bit earlier.
10:02And that's almost, if anything, been backtracking a little bit.
10:06So that's perhaps a trend that it might not happen as we head into until the following week.
10:12So, yes, quite a strong signal that high pressure is in charge.
10:14Perhaps loosening its grip a little bit as we head into that bank holiday weekend.
10:19And this kind of backs that up as well.
10:21This is rather than looking at the pressure trend, it's looking at the wind flow trend.
10:25Will the winds be more coming from the north or from the south?
10:28The reds from the south.
10:30Rock solid signal on that as we go into next week.
10:33But then the signal does become a bit more wishy-washy as we head into that weekend.
10:38Meaning the models are a bit flip-flopping even about where the winds are coming from.
10:43Just the position of the high.
10:44And it may just a little bit be weakening its grip somewhat.
10:48So the potential, that's all it is at this stage, for the weather to change a little bit
10:53as we head into the bank holiday weekend.
10:55But that is a long way away.
10:57So, as always, keep up to date with the latest from the Met Office.
11:00And the best way to do that, if you're watching this on YouTube, just hit subscribe.
11:04Thanks for watching.
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