00:00Welcome along to this 10-day trend that takes us knocking on the door of the first May bank holiday.
00:05Through the next 10 days, high pressure will definitely dominate.
00:09But although the weather patterns aren't changing hugely, there's always plenty to talk about.
00:14First up, let's have a game of spot the jet stream.
00:17It's certainly not in evidence anywhere close to the UK,
00:20except perhaps this weakish signal for a bit of a circulation out in the Atlantic.
00:25Now, the main push of the jet stream is to the north, way up to the north,
00:30much more further north than you'd expect at this time of year in particular,
00:34over northern parts of Greenland, arching its way down towards Scandinavia,
00:38which means in here it's a breeding ground for high pressure.
00:42And it's this high in one form or another that will tend to dominate our weather for at least the
00:47next 10 days.
00:48Now, it's dominating, but it's not completely in control with that little swirl in the jet stream,
00:53that little circulation out in the Atlantic.
00:55There is an air of low pressure trapped under that.
00:58It's not moving very far because there's not a lot to shift it.
01:00But it is generating some quite strong winds across southwest England.
01:04As the high sinks south, the low sticks in position.
01:07The isobar is still quite tightly packed.
01:09It will be quite as windy on Thursday as it was on Wednesday, but still a noticeable breeze here.
01:13And that low is trying desperately to throw weather fronts our way.
01:18Mostly, though, not really succeeding, perhaps just bringing a bit more cloud into parts of the west.
01:23As we go through the next four or five days, well, that high will dominate.
01:26It kind of just ambles its way around across the northeast, sinks a little further south.
01:31There are those weather fronts trying to push in.
01:33One could bring a few showers maybe into the far west on Friday night.
01:37So the high then rebuilds, reestablishes itself as the jet stream gets a bit more about it out in the
01:42Atlantic.
01:43But again, now it's just pushing low pressure systems up towards Iceland,
01:47whereas that high is still definitely dominating for us across the UK.
01:53Let's rewind then and see what that means for our weather over the next few days.
01:57With the high sitting here and the winds going clockwise around high pressure,
02:01we'll continue to feed in something of an easterly breeze along the coast of Lincolnshire,
02:06East Anglia and Kent.
02:07And as I mentioned, still quite brisk winds in the southwest.
02:10Not as strong as they were on Wednesday, but still quite noticeable here, bringing a cooler feel.
02:16But for central parts of England and parts of eastern South Wales,
02:20temperature is likely to get into the high teens, perhaps even low 20s.
02:23Whereas on that east coast, not only is there the threat of some low clouds dribbling in at times,
02:29there will be that breeze bringing a chillier feel.
02:32Further north under the centre of the high, the winds will be a lot lighter,
02:34so it perhaps won't feel as cold on the east coast of Scotland or the far northeast of England.
02:38Now, that breeze will bring in some moisture through Thursday night,
02:42and so Friday could start a bit foggy over parts of eastern England,
02:45but it doesn't last very long at all.
02:48There's enough power in the sun, and it's going to be quite shallow mist and fog.
02:51That will clear pretty rapidly.
02:54And by the time we get to Friday, the brisk winds continue to ease down.
02:58Still a bit of a chill on the Cromer, for example, on the north Norfolk coast,
03:03perhaps around the coast of Kent.
03:05But generally, those winds easing as the high pressure builds in further,
03:08so it won't be as cold in the eastern side of England on Friday compared to Thursday.
03:12And again, inland over England, we could easily see those temperatures getting up into the low 20s,
03:19parts of southern Scotland, northern Ireland, into the mid to high teens.
03:22The breeze a little lighter in the far southwest on Friday also,
03:25because that high pressure just moving its way in.
03:28So let's look at those temperatures in a bit more detail when compared to the average for the middle of
03:33April.
03:33You can see that chillier feel for Thursday from East Yorkshire down across Lincolnshire and into Norfolk,
03:40whereas for the west, we'll see those temperatures above average,
03:42although there will be still a bit of a wind chill in the far southwest.
03:45By Friday, well, we're losing the blue hues.
03:49So temperatures getting closer to average.
03:51They're just starting to lift a little bit along that eastern coast because those winds will be that much lighter.
03:56Many other places, four or five degrees above the average and probably getting warmer still as we head into the
04:02weekend.
04:03The high pressure is still there.
04:04There is a cold front lurking that might just threaten a few showers into the west later on on Friday
04:09night and into Saturday.
04:11But generally, high pressure is still in control because the jet stream is still up to the north.
04:16I'm going to show you this, though, because it does develop just this little area of low pressure.
04:19Notice how it interacts with the jet stream pushing south, a little bit of a left exit,
04:23and it spins up into an area of low pressure crossing through Scandinavia.
04:28Now, I'm showing you this partly because the weather's not doing a great deal across the UK,
04:32but also because it does do something that low as it spins up as it interacts with the jet stream.
04:37It does allow colder air to drift southward.
04:40So if we rewind and look at that low as it spins up behind it, these northerly winds take that
04:45cold air south,
04:46just threatening there to push into Shetland, for example.
04:51So we will see an impact from that low across the far northeast of Scotland.
04:55Another reason to show you that is because this time last week there was a lot of chatter in the
05:01press,
05:01in particular about that cold air driving south,
05:03and a few of the models were indicating that cold air could push right across the UK,
05:07whereas now it looks like a glancing blow at best,
05:10although it will bring a chill to Shetland undoubtedly on Saturday,
05:14with temperatures here only in single figures,
05:16and the northeast of the mainland with the winds coming in from the north may feel fairly fresh in Aberdeen.
05:21But as you head further south, with lighter winds, we're likely to be in the high teens again across southern
05:26Scotland,
05:27and further south across the Midlands, East Wales,
05:30as we could easily get to 22, maybe 23 degrees Celsius and warmer on that east coast by this stage
05:37as well.
05:37So temperatures are building as we go through the course of the weekend.
05:41By the time we get to Sunday, again, we'll see temperatures in the low 20s,
05:45perhaps again one or two spots getting to 23 Celsius.
05:49Again, the wind direction is absolutely crucial.
05:52We'll start to see the winds turning more to the south across the far north of Scotland,
05:56and generally the winds are fairly light under the influence of high pressure.
06:00So a lot of dry weather this weekend, chilly mornings, yes, but with some sunshine to come.
06:05Just wanted to show you this, the trajectories of where the air is coming from across the UK this weekend.
06:11This is for Exeter, showing the path of the air, getting into Exeter,
06:16tracing it back over the previous four days.
06:19You can see actually it does a bit of a loop-de-loop over Scotland,
06:21but this is where the air is coming from that we see at ground level on Saturday and Sunday in
06:28Exeter.
06:28It starts off in the Atlantic, moving around that area of high pressure.
06:33So I just wanted to show you that, that not all warm spells of weather in the UK
06:37are because the air is coming up from the south.
06:39It's actually starting out in the Atlantic,
06:41and the reason it's warming up is because the sun's getting stronger,
06:43so you get day-on-day heating, but also under that area of high pressure,
06:46the air is getting compressed, and that compression actually adds to the temperature rise as well.
06:52So yes, it's getting warmer through the weekend.
06:54High pressure is still in control as we head into Sunday.
06:58A weak little filament of the jet stream just perhaps throwing this weather front closer to northern Scotland,
07:04so as there's a wind switch here, we could see a bit more cloud and some showery rain on Sunday
07:08night
07:08over northern Scotland as that low moves through.
07:11But behind that, again, the high pressure starts to build once more,
07:16and is likely to dominate Monday, Tuesday, and beyond.
07:20These are the most likely pressure patterns for Tuesday of next week,
07:25all three of them with high pressure in control.
07:27Anticyclone means high pressure.
07:29This wall, if it was a bit further east, may be allowing weather fronts into the far northwest,
07:34but that is the third most likely scenario.
07:37Add up these three scenarios, they're coming up to 70% of high pressure in control,
07:42so a pretty strong signal that high pressure will remain in control,
07:45and of course with high pressure you've got that sinking air which stops clouds and the rain building up.
07:50As for Wednesday, well, it's pretty much the same three most likely scenarios,
07:54just a case of where is that high pressure building.
07:57The blue splodges, that's rainfall, and as you can see in all of these scenarios,
08:01there's not much rain expected in the UK, just with this one and that high, again,
08:05further east, the potential for low pressure to bring a bit of showery rain into the far west.
08:11Even for Thursday, anything that's really changing are the numbers and the percentage chance of these scenarios,
08:17but even here, we've still got pretty high numbers.
08:19So these top two with high pressure sitting close to or across the northeast of the UK,
08:24more than 50% chance, and this is more than a week away.
08:27So as I say, the models are in agreement.
08:29Quite a strong signal that the high pressure will last for most of next week.
08:33The big question is just where does it sit, and that's crucial because, as we've seen,
08:37that dictates the wind.
08:39And with chilly seas around the UK at this time of year,
08:42where the high pressure sits and where you get the breeze from the sea,
08:45that has a big impact on the feel of the day.
08:48So the devil will be in the detail about where that high pressure is sitting
08:51as to where there's a bit more cloud or where the temperatures are below average or significantly above.
08:57But what we can say about next week is that high pressure will be the dominant feature.
09:00So if you have to rain, well, you're not going to see much of it next week.
09:04Staying pretty dry, often quite sunny.
09:06Yes, there'll be chilly mornings where the winds are light.
09:09We're only in April, of course, heading into May.
09:12So some cold mornings, but some warm afternoons.
09:15But remember, the devil in the detail, that wind direction due to the position of the high
09:20will be key to those details about whether you're cloudy or whether you are warm.
09:25Just looking a little further ahead, because as I mentioned at the start,
09:28it is that bank holiday all weekend.
09:30This is the probabilistic pressure trend when we look at the ensemble,
09:34the models when we run them many, many times.
09:37And this is from the multi-model rock solid signal there.
09:41Red is high pressure.
09:42These are the previous model runs there, the dates going forward.
09:45So if you've watched the 10-day trend before, you'll have seen these.
09:47Rock solid red signal.
09:49High pressure in control throughout next week.
09:52Until we get to the weekend, where there are signs perhaps of it changing a little bit.
09:57But as you can see here, if you go back in time, the signs of that changing were a little
10:01bit earlier.
10:02And that's almost, if anything, been backtracking a little bit.
10:06So that's perhaps a trend that it might not happen as we head into until the following week.
10:12So, yes, quite a strong signal that high pressure is in charge.
10:14Perhaps loosening its grip a little bit as we head into that bank holiday weekend.
10:19And this kind of backs that up as well.
10:21This is rather than looking at the pressure trend, it's looking at the wind flow trend.
10:25Will the winds be more coming from the north or from the south?
10:28The reds from the south.
10:30Rock solid signal on that as we go into next week.
10:33But then the signal does become a bit more wishy-washy as we head into that weekend.
10:38Meaning the models are a bit flip-flopping even about where the winds are coming from.
10:43Just the position of the high.
10:44And it may just a little bit be weakening its grip somewhat.
10:48So the potential, that's all it is at this stage, for the weather to change a little bit
10:53as we head into the bank holiday weekend.
10:55But that is a long way away.
10:57So, as always, keep up to date with the latest from the Met Office.
11:00And the best way to do that, if you're watching this on YouTube, just hit subscribe.
11:04Thanks for watching.
Comments