00:00Well, no doubt you've heard the rumor. No doubt you've seen some maps on social media.
00:06A blockbuster East Coast snowstorm. It really hit the fever pitch yesterday. Is it fact or is it
00:16fiction? I think it's fiction. It's not a definite no, but I think right now it's about a 15%
00:24chance
00:25of a blockbuster East Coast snowstorm where you get a foot of snow along the East Coast.
00:32It's a low probability. It's a complicated setup. And that's why we have the feed. Let me show you
00:37what we're looking at here. We'll start right with the satellite picture here.
00:42And this is in a few pieces and that's what makes it a little complicated here. All right,
00:49let me show you. This is going to be piece number one. It is the storm coming out of California
00:58as we
00:58speak. It's this in here because what this is going to do, this is going to come across the country,
01:04move into the Northeast, bring an injection of cold air, but then it has to get out of the way
01:09because if it sits here, it drives the storm out to sea. The actual storm is this piece,
01:16piece number one. This is the actual storm that we're going to be tracking. This comes into
01:22California tomorrow. And then the third piece will be this, what you're looking at here in Alberta.
01:29This is an upper low that'll be diving Southeast and in a sense phase with this system. So in order
01:36to show you what has to happen, I want to show you what got everybody excited yesterday on social
01:45media. And what we're going to do is we're going to work backwards here. So this is what got everybody
01:52excited on social media. This was the European AI model. This is Sunday evening, 986 storm Southeast
02:01of Atlantic city and watch how it goes due North. That would be a blockbuster snowstorm from Washington,
02:08DC, New York city, Philadelphia. So there'd be easily over a foot of snow. And this would turn into a
02:14blizzard. Some spots would get two feet. Look at that. Now let's work backwards. This was the upper
02:21air that would have to verify here. This was piece one that I talked about that was coming into the
02:29plains tomorrow. See how that moves out of the way that allows the storm to come northward. Let's go
02:35backwards here and we'll go to this tomorrow morning. So Thursday morning. So there's the first
02:42Thursday morning is right here. Sorry. This is Thursday morning. So this is the first piece
02:50that we talked about. This is going to, this piece, this comes across the Northeast. Watch what it does.
02:55See how it gets out of the way. It goes there. Friday gets out of the way. So you don't
03:00have a
03:01Northwest flow and you don't drive this energy offshore. All right. Piece number two, let's go back.
03:07That's this storm in California tomorrow. And this piece will then strengthen it and guide it up the
03:14coast. So follow them as we go forward. Here we go and watch what happens here by Saturday. So here
03:21is
03:22the piece of energy across Alberta. This was the California storm. And this is the critical part.
03:26Now, what the modeling was showing is that a piece of this energy from the Northern Prof was going to,
03:32in a sense, phase or drop in to that Southern piece of energy and watch what it ends up doing.
03:37It ends up, watch, cuts off a huge upper low here in Northern Virginia. So what that would do
03:46would bomb out the storm and then guide it up the Eastern seaboard. You see that?
03:54All of those pieces have to work together in order to produce a blockbuster snowstorm. Is that
04:01reality? I think it's about a 15% chance that that would occur. Now let's go to the latest model
04:09runs here. This is the European AI. Here we go. This is the latest. So this is Sunday, Saturday,
04:19Sunday morning, the new run Sunday morning shows that first piece of energy getting out of the way.
04:25So that's consistent compared to the old run. You see how it's out of the way. Look at the energy
04:31up
04:31here. It's moving out of the way. It won't drive the storm out to sea. But here's the big difference
04:36now.
04:37Notice the difference in this. This was pieces number two and three. This was the new run. This
04:43was the old one. And watch the difference. This is the old run. There's the upper low. You see it?
04:48Sunday evening, the new run, it doesn't strengthen it enough. So the energy is mostly out to sea.
04:57There was the old run. Monday morning, this is the new run, out to sea. What does it look like
05:03on the
05:04surface map? Look at the difference. Old run, 7 a.m., new run. Old run, new run, out to sea.
05:12Now,
05:13it's a close call though. It is a close call. But I think the idea of a widespread big snowstorm
05:21across a lot of the Northeast, I only think that's about a 15% chance. Now, that doesn't mean we're
05:27not
05:27going to get snow. Because if you go back, you've still got all of this energy. This is the new
05:33run
05:34of the AI European coming across the Northeast. That tells me that there's at least going to be
05:40some snow with this as we move forward in the Sunday. Let me show you the snow potential
05:47right here. There it is, the snow potential moving forward here. And you can see that there's
05:56at least going to be some snow. Now, the one thing to remember, you don't have a lot of cold
05:59air in
06:00this area, south of New York City. So it may be hard to accumulate. If we get a snowstorm,
06:09let's say over six inches, I think it would be closer to the coast here, somewhere in here.
06:16But we're still well out, away from the storm. But the idea of a blockbuster big East Coast snowstorm,
06:25I think it's about 15%. I think it's more likely we get some snow. But you do have to keep
06:30an eye out
06:31on this for maybe more significant snow and wind across southeastern New England and eastern Long
06:37Island. And that's the feed.
06:39So
06:39you
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