What conditions would lead to a major snowstorm for the East Coast in mid-January?

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno explains what meteorologists are watching to determine if the first big East Coast snowstorm of 2026 could be on the way.

Transcript

00:00An intriguing pattern set up for late next week along the east coast and that's the focus

00:07of the feed and we're going to continue to keep an eye on this even as we go through the rest of

00:12this week because I think the pattern is there for a storm to try to come up the eastern seaboard.

00:17Now it's also the storm could be well offshore and the pattern I'm about to show you we have

00:24seen quite a bit in the last month or two since December and we haven't had really any big storms

00:33yet because the storms have formed offshore. Now this is the pattern that I'm talking about here.

00:39What ends up happening is you have a digging or a jet stream coming on south as we head in the next

00:45week. That brings the colder air down. It's not arctic air but it's cold enough for snow. You're

00:50going to have energy coming in on the bottom side of this trough. The question is does this storm

00:56move with the trough at the same speed if it does it goes out to sea or does the energy get out ahead

01:04of the trough and then the trough guided up to the coast and then you have a cold enough air and ask

01:09for a substantial snow. That's the question that we're trying to answer for you on the feed and

01:14I'm going to be honest with you I don't have the answers yet but I can tell you and here we are well

01:19you know a week away there is if we're going to get substantial snow in the mid-atlantic and northeast

01:25the time frame is going to be at Wednesday into Thursday until then I don't really see anything of

01:31consequence here. Now what I like to do and the reason we have the feed is I want you to see the

01:36modeling that I see and remember here on the feed the models don't make the forecast. I do but I use the

01:44models as a tool to make the forecast. That's the difference. All right I want to show you some of

01:51the and we're going to concentrate on that time frame Wednesday into Thursday. I want to start

01:55with some models here and I want to begin with the America model because it was the one yesterday that

02:00was showing the snowstorm. So here we go let me show you Tuesday and Wednesday here comes your dip in

02:05the jet stream. You see it let's stop it look at this dip in the jet stream. Now for this to become

02:12a snowstorm this dip in the jet stream has to have a couple things. Number one you have to have energy

02:17that will run out ahead of this to form the storm and then also the tilt of this trough has to be

02:26more neutral or negative. What do I mean by that? If you have a neutral tilt the tilt of the trough in

02:33this case this is the GFS. Let me show it to you. This is as we get into Friday Wednesday. This is what I

02:39call a neutral tilt. It is tilted from north to south. A positive tilt which is let's go back. This

02:49is more of a positive tilt. You see how it's northwest northeast to southwest. That's important

02:55because think about it. When this storm forms it's going to move the way in which the upper level

03:00pattern is set up. In a neutral or a positively tilt you get west southwest winds. So a storm that

03:07would form here would be moved out to sea. But if you have a more of a tilt like this neutral

03:12where it's north south or even negative where it's northwest to southeast the steering flow

03:18is either south or even to the southwest and then that steers the storm north. So that's what we're

03:23going to be concentrating on. So this is the American model. Here comes the dip in the jet stream. Now I'm

03:28going to stop this Thursday morning. Do you have energy coming in on the on on the southern side of

03:35this? The answer is yes. It's right here Thursday morning. Look at here's your northern piece. Here's

03:41your southern piece. This is a real close call. The tilt is neutral but what happens is there's just

03:50enough west southwest flow that the storm forms and moves out the sea right here. See watch here it goes.

03:56Oh it's close. This says New England has a shot as we get into Thursday night Friday. You see that's the

04:03American model right in here. Close call. Very close call for the I-95 corridor the Virginia coast and

04:13right up in the New England. That is the American model. Now let me show you the uh the Canadian model

04:19similar. They all have the same thing. You've got this big dip in the jet stream. There you go. You see

04:24it? Now as we get in the Thursday morning the Canadian a little different. First of all it has more energy

04:32in the southern branch than the northern branch but you notice the dip in the jet stream. You notice

04:37this dip. Look how it's oriented. It's almost what we call negative tilt. That is it's tilted. See how

04:44it goes right there. You see how it's starting to get a little negatively tilted. What does that mean?

04:49You have a due southerly flow aloft and what does that do? It guides the storm northward. This is a closer

04:56call and it has snow farther northwest because you have energy on the eastern side and that tilt

05:02is a little negative. Look at the surface map. Let's watch it. That's the upper levels. Here's the

05:07surface map. Here comes the storm. And look at how it starts filling in snow back here across the

05:14Appalachians and then the storm goes up and it's eastern New England that would get the most. It's a

05:20close call. Lastly the European model. Unfortunately I don't have the the upper air but this is all

05:28offshore and I'll show and the reason for that is that the trough is more like this. There's not a lot

05:36of energy and the storm is well offshore. So the question is what do I believe? I'm not sure yet but

05:45this I want to give you an area. This area in here. I think anywhere from the Appalachians in here

05:52you've got to worry about a snow threat next week. I would have it in here. I'd have Washington DC,

06:00Philadelphia, New York City, Boston in the potential area. That's the potential area.

06:08I don't think it's going to get far south into the Carolinas. It's not quite the time of the year for

06:13that but that's the area to watch. Right now I would tell you if we get the snow I would go

06:19Appalachians, I-81, West Virginia. I'd have Baltimore, Washington DC, New York City, Philadelphia,

06:28all of New Jersey back in the central parts of New York State and Pennsylvania and up into New

06:32England. That's an area to watch. Now it could go out to sea as well but again I think we have the

06:38pattern right here. This is the pattern as we get in the next week. The cascading jet stream,

06:46a storm forming, does it come up the coast or go out to sea?

06:50That's the million dollar question and we'll answer it on the feed.

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