10 Day Trend 15/10/2025 – Big changes incoming - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 15/10/2025.  Will an ex-typhoon mean changes for the UK.  Bringing you this 10 day weather outlook is Alex Deakin.

Transcript

00:00Hello, we're halfway through autumn and halfway through this 10-day trend.

00:05We're going to see a big switch in our weather from the fairly still, misty, murky and largely dry weather

00:11to something much wetter and much windier.

00:14On the 38th anniversary of the great storm, our pressure patterns couldn't look much different.

00:20Big air of high pressure that's been with us for a number of days and it's not moving too far too quickly.

00:26Still in place certainly for the rest of this week.

00:29Why is it not moving?

00:30Well, if we take a look at what's going on high in the atmosphere, the position of the jet stream

00:35dipping down to the south and then arching way up to the north.

00:38This amplified jet stream allows high pressure to sit across the UK and turning around this

00:45area of low pressure, just basically keeping this churning away out in the Atlantic.

00:49But changes are afoot as we go through the weekend.

00:53Fast forward to Monday and it's all changed.

00:56We've replaced high pressure with low pressure and the jet is in a different position.

01:02Not particularly angry looking, but a much more zonal jet is sending low pressure systems

01:08our way.

01:09And by this stage, the high pressure has been ousted and pushed across into Europe, into

01:15mainland Europe.

01:16So we are going to see that dramatic change.

01:18The reasons behind that could have something to do with the next typhoon.

01:22More on that in a moment.

01:24First of all, let's rewind the clock because the high pressure is still with us, certainly

01:28for the next couple of days.

01:29There's a lot of cloud trapped under that high pressure.

01:33Some breaks in the cloud revealing a bit of sunshine here and there.

01:37If you want more on that high pressure and why the cloud is trapped under the inversion,

01:42you can watch either Alex Burkill's deep dive from last week or Aidan's from yesterday.

01:47They talked quite a lot about the high pressure and the inversion and what it means.

01:51But what it means for us weather-wise is that generally it stays cloudy for the next couple

01:55of days.

01:56Some light showers at times across northern Scotland and along the south coast of England.

02:00But most places will be dry with temperatures as they have been creeping into the low teens.

02:07That area of high pressure then continues through into the start of the weekend.

02:11But we do start to see a change during Saturday.

02:15The first week, weather front tries to push in and then it gets a bit of a boost.

02:19Another area of low pressure.

02:20These weather fronts do finally edge in during the weekends.

02:26There was a bit of uncertainty about the timing, but most of the models are now agreeing or

02:30certainly within five or six hours of the time of this band of rain sweeping in from

02:35west to east.

02:36So a few spots of rain likely in the west on Saturday, but otherwise a lot of dry weather

02:40on Saturday.

02:40Still predominantly cloudy, although a bit more hopeful as the breeze picks up.

02:44We'll see a bit more sunshine coming through, but all change through the weekend because

02:49we will see by Sunday that band of rain moving from west to east and the winds picking up

02:55also.

02:55So the weekend is the transition from a dry start to a wet end.

03:01Why are we seeing that change?

03:02Why are we seeing that transition?

03:04Well, for that, we need to look at the big picture, the really big picture.

03:09Again, we'll be looking at the winds high in the atmosphere and what the jet is doing,

03:13but we need also to look at a global picture.

03:17This is the view down from the North Pole, looking down on the North Pole rather.

03:23Here's North America.

03:25Here's the UK in here.

03:26And so the greens and the yellow as well, that's basically the jet stream.

03:31The wind's at 200 hectopascals.

03:33And you can see the jet's fairly messy across the western hemisphere, not particularly strong

03:39anywhere.

03:39We've got quite an amplified pattern as we saw earlier.

03:43This is going back in time to last Friday when the jet was reasonably active actually

03:47across Asia here.

03:48And what I want to draw your attention to right at the top of the charts, this little

03:52black circle in here, is Typhoon Halong.

03:57Typhoon last Friday.

03:58During the course of last Friday, it transitioned from a typhoon, skirted away from Japan and

04:04started to track further north and westwards across the Pacific.

04:09At this stage, not really interacting with the jet stream.

04:12But if we move forward to Saturday, no longer a typhoon.

04:16Now its transition's gone through, extratropical transition.

04:20So just like hurricanes do in the Atlantic, it then just becomes an area of low pressure

04:25and interacting with the jet stream.

04:27It's got a lot of energy.

04:28So it's pushing the jet stream along.

04:30It's one of those ones where we often talk about the jets, you know, moving low pressure

04:34systems around.

04:35But because this is a tropical system of tropical origin, it can affect the jet stream.

04:40And it's really energizing the jet stream, pushing it into North America.

04:44By the time we get to Sunday, if we zoom in a little bit further, you can see the remnants

04:49of that typhoon turned into quite a powerful area of low pressure.

04:54A lot of isobars on the chart barreled into Alaska, bringing some devastating conditions

04:59to some of the coastal communities here with strong winds, a big storm surge, and of course

05:04some heavy rain.

05:05Why I'm showing you this is because it's energizing the jet stream, pushing that energy

05:10through the upper atmosphere, which then will have downstream effects, really energizing

05:16the jet stream and making it more zonal across North America.

05:20And eventually that will ripple down out into the Atlantic to affect us.

05:25I can show you that perhaps better if we revert back to our graphics and come back to the

05:29here and now.

05:30So there's our area of high pressure that's been around for a long time.

05:34Let's flip over into the Pacific and you can see now the jet stream highly energized here.

05:40There's another deep area of low pressure heading its way into Alaska.

05:44But what we're showing you here is how that jet stream, that amplified jet stream in North

05:48America is being shifted by that extra pulse that's coming in from the far northwest, energizing

05:54the jet stream, making it more of a zonal pattern.

05:57And we flip that and push that energy further down the jet stream.

06:01Eventually it ripples through right across the Atlantic.

06:04And that is why the jet stream for us is also changing.

06:08Not particularly active, as I said earlier, but strong enough to push this area of low

06:13pressure in initially and then waiting in the wings.

06:15As you can see, there are further low pressure systems to come in through next week.

06:19So we've really just opened the door to that change where we've had the static weather pattern

06:24for the past several days.

06:26We are going to see things much more changeable, much more unsettled as we go into it next week

06:30with that low coming in.

06:32The bands of rain on the weather fronts followed by plenty of showers and the isobars close

06:36together as well.

06:37So we're expecting some fairly gusty winds, whereas the winds have been very light for

06:41much of the past few days.

06:43The probability plot shows that transition quite nicely.

06:47The dates going along the bottom there into next week.

06:51The red colors indicating that high pressure is dictating our weather at the moment.

06:56We'll continue to do so for the next couple of days.

06:58The change in shade is as that high starts to move away rather than sitting over us.

07:03The darker reds becoming more of a Scandinavian high sitting across the near continent.

07:09The slightly more orangey reds there.

07:12But then they get lost completely as we go into next week.

07:14And the blues take over.

07:16That means the weather pants much more mobile and dictated generally by low pressure systems,

07:22either sitting close to the south of the UK or springing in plenty of bands of showers

07:26from the northwest.

07:28So we're going to see that change.

07:29That low pressure comes in through the weekend, sitting around on Monday as we saw.

07:33And the most likely pressure pattern actually still has that low close by on Tuesday, over

07:3840% chance when we run the ensemble models, when we run the model many times, that that

07:44is the most likely pressure pattern through the early part of next week.

07:47And the blues here, the rainfall anomalies are wetter than average across all of England,

07:54Wales and parts of eastern Scotland.

07:57The western Scotland may be drier than average, which doesn't mean it's going to be dry.

08:00And with a northerly wind, it will be on the chilly side as well.

08:03So we are seeing that switch and it is likely to last certainly through much of next week.

08:09That's the most likely pressure pattern for Tuesday.

08:11And we keep low pressure nearby for most of next week.

08:15We just picked out a couple of the ensembles, the model runs from the European through next

08:20week, because they're all kind of showing the same thing with that low nearby for Tuesday.

08:25And then generally with low pressure sitting up to the northwest of the UK, most of the

08:30model, most of the ensemble members have this low up here.

08:32But I just wanted to flag this one because a couple of them are showing quite deep areas

08:37of low pressure, potentially tracking towards the south.

08:39Now, this is over a week away.

08:41So I can't be trusting any one particular ensemble.

08:43But it just shows it had that indication that we could keep our eyes open for low pressure

08:49systems that could get a little angry coming in across parts of the south, particularly

08:53around the middle to latter part of next week.

08:55But all of the ensembles pretty much are showing low pressure nearby, bringing showers or longer

09:00spells of rain for most of next week.

09:03Wouldn't be hard to be wetter than it has been, but much wetter, you know, more typical autumn

09:07weather spells of rain moving through with something a bit drier and a bit brighter in between.

09:12The winds will be stronger than they have been this week as well, as you'd expect with low

09:16pressure.

09:17Could see some quite strong winds, particularly if those lows develop close to parts of the

09:22south.

09:22And that's something we need to keep an eye on.

09:24Temperatures generally around about average with the winds coming in from the west.

09:28Perhaps the southwest would see temperatures a little bit above average, particularly so by

09:32night and especially if it does brighten up at times.

09:36But then towards the end of the next week, well, that could change.

09:41There are some signals from some of the computer models that we could see something a little

09:44colder as we head into the following weekend.

09:48So I want to show you some of our new graphics now.

09:50Big shout out to Aidan again, who's been developing these.

09:53And this is the probability when we run the model many times, the ensemble run of the European

10:00model, you can work out percentages, the likelihood of certain things happening.

10:04And here we're plotting the probability of reaching 10 degrees next Thursday.

10:09So Thursday the 23rd of October with those yellow colours, a high probability up over 90%.

10:16So very strong chance we're going to be over 10 degrees a week on Thursday.

10:21Whereas further north, our probability drops off.

10:23Certainly over the highlands of Scotland, the chance is pretty low.

10:26At low levels across northern areas, it's around about 50-50.

10:30So it's probably going to be in that ballpark of 10 degrees.

10:32But I want to show you this because if you fast forward to Sunday into the weekend, we

10:37lose a lot of those yellows.

10:39The probability of reaching 10 degrees is dropping off.

10:41So that is a strong indicator that it may well be getting a bit colder as we head into that

10:48weekend.

10:48And of course, that is, for many places, the start of the half term week.

10:53So I just want you to flag that because it might be quite interesting.

10:56Again, something to track as we go through next week and something we'll have more on,

10:59of course, in next week's 10-day trends that could be worth tuning into if you are interested

11:04in the half term weather.

11:06One more shout out to give Dan Holley, our deputy chief, pointed out those links and

11:12from Typhoon Halong and how that could have downstream impacts on our jet stream.

11:17So big thanks to Dan.

11:18He often gives us help when we're doing these 10-day trends and our deep dives.

11:23Thank you very much for watching and do keep up to date with the day-to-day variations in

11:28our weather.

11:29And the best way, of course, to do that is to subscribe to our YouTube channel.

10 Day Trend 15/10/2025 – Big changes incoming

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