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00:00And all guests on 95.7, the game, appear on the River Island's guest line,
00:03and we're going to go out there in just a second to our buddy Johnny Avello,
00:06DraftKings Director of Sports Operations.
00:09Dibs, you need a slump buster.
00:10I do, I do.
00:11We had him on, I was 16-4, and, well, I'm not 16-4 anymore.
00:15No, no, he told you months ago this was not going to keep up.
00:19He might have been the mush, but I won't say that to him.
00:24And it has not kept up.
00:25So, yeah, that's part of the reason.
00:27And, Johnny, we want to know about the Niners and the NFL,
00:30but also, like, do people ever come to you for advice like,
00:34man, I'm on a cold streak.
00:35What do I do about this?
00:37Dibs is in a cold streak right now.
00:39What do I know, Mark?
00:41I'm an odds maker.
00:42Odds makers are no better at handicapping than the average person.
00:49I mean, I'm good at making a number,
00:51making a number on any game to get two-way action.
00:54That doesn't qualify me to pick winners.
00:57So, when they come to me, I say, I can't help you.
01:01Well, but you can tell us where, as we like to call it, the sharp money is.
01:06So, for example, Bucs minus five-and-a-half tonight.
01:11Where's the sharp money?
01:12What does Vegas want?
01:15Well, really no sharp money on this game because we opened five-and-a-half.
01:20We're still at five-and-a-half.
01:22If the sharps are on anything on this game, it's the under.
01:27You know, they were able to get a better number 44-and-a-half early,
01:31and now 43-and-a-half.
01:33But I don't see any sharp money on this game tonight.
01:36I can't say any, but, you know, not an abundance of it.
01:39Are Thursday night games more likely to be unders?
01:42It feels to me as an amateur, and boy, am I ever an amateur, Johnny,
01:47but it feels to me like Thursdays tend to be more under heavy.
01:51You always have to look at the matchup.
01:54You know, if you've got two teams that can score
01:56and it's going to be a dry field, defenses aren't that good,
02:02that's when we're going to get the money bent on the over.
02:05I wouldn't say that Thursday night games more have gone under than over.
02:11I would say that's pretty close.
02:13I mean, there have been some of these Thursday night games
02:16that have gone way over.
02:18So, yeah, I wouldn't say Thursdays are an under at this point.
02:23Johnny, I want to talk to you about the Niners' Super Bowl lives.
02:25This entire market is trying to figure out,
02:29are the 49ers, even minus their best defensive players,
02:32are they an actual contender at 9-4?
02:36So, first, let me let you answer that.
02:39Do you guys see the Niners as a realistic contender?
02:43Well, I see them as a contender
02:44because they're probably going to make the playoffs.
02:47You know, they've got a 90% chance of making it now.
02:51They've got a soft game this week.
02:52The schedule going out's not too bad.
02:55Still in contention for the division.
02:57And they're going to be chased by the Bears and the Lions.
03:02And possibly the Panthers.
03:04So, I think they're a contender because they can make it.
03:08And when you look at the whole body of work from everybody in the NFL,
03:13is there anybody that really blows you away?
03:15No.
03:16No.
03:16Exactly.
03:17So, here's my question.
03:19Maybe you can shed some light on why the Super Bowl odds
03:22are the way they are right now.
03:24I'm looking at 10 teams that apparently have better odds
03:28than the 49ers to win the Super Bowl.
03:30I understand most of them.
03:32But Jacksonville, Johnny, and Detroit as well,
03:35who's supposed to lose this weekend while the Niners are supposed to win,
03:39which almost puts the Lions potentially out of the playoffs.
03:42How do the Jags and Lions have better odds than the Niners?
03:46Well, you have to look at who they're going to play in the playoffs
03:49and then who are the 49ers going to play.
03:52So, when you look on the NFC side, you see the Rams, the Seahawks, the Packers.
04:00I mean, these teams are for the NFC, and not to mention the Eagles.
04:05These are teams that are very good teams that probably everyone I just mentioned
04:09will be favored over almost any AFC team.
04:14That's the reason why.
04:16It's the competition within the conferences.
04:19And you've got Houston at 13-1 to win the Super Bowl.
04:24Is that just kind of slanted to the fact that their defense is such a difference maker for them
04:29as opposed to any other team that might be in contention outside of Denver?
04:34Well, again, it's about getting there again, and they have a chance to get there.
04:39Yeah, when you look at the defenses in the AFC, the Bills, they don't have any.
04:44They haven't had any for a few years.
04:46They have to outscore people.
04:49The Patriots' defense isn't bad.
04:51Broncos isn't bad.
04:53And then there's the Texans.
04:54So, they're the fourth choice in the AFC.
04:58And out of those three teams I mentioned ahead of them,
05:02they're capable of beating those teams any night.
05:05Johnny Avello is with us here on Withered and Dibs,
05:08DraftKings Director of Sports Operations.
05:10I wonder if people are – I'm always curious about this.
05:15For instance, do you have the Niners game this weekend?
05:17Is it at 12-1⁄2 or 13 at your house right now?
05:21I think we're still 12-1⁄2.
05:24Okay, okay.
05:24That's a big number.
05:26And I get everybody understands the Niners are way better than Titans.
05:29As an odds maker, take me through how you arrive at that number.
05:33Like, that's so random.
05:3511, 14-1⁄2.
05:36How do you get to an exact number on this?
05:41We take our power rating, and I'll give you, for instance,
05:44let's say out of 100, the 49ers power rating is – let's call it a 92.
05:52And then the Titans power rating is an 82.
05:56So, the 49ers are 10 points better than them on a neutral field.
06:03And then we give the 49ers a couple of points for home field advantage,
06:08and that's how we come to our number.
06:11Now, there's a little bit more that goes into it.
06:13I explained it in a simple way.
06:15But we did open this game 12-1⁄2.
06:17We're still at 12-1⁄2.
06:19They're betting the 49ers.
06:20I'm not going to be surprised if we end up going to 13 on this game.
06:25The Titans only have a couple wins.
06:27Both wins are on the road.
06:29Both wins were against much more inferior teams than the 49ers.
06:34So, the 49ers are going to be played this week not only with the spread.
06:39They're going to be in all the same-game parlays, all the money-line parlays.
06:45And so, we will be heavily weighted on that side come the weekend.
06:48And one of five games that is a, quote, super favorite, as I like to call them, Johnny,
06:53teams that are favored by 10 or more.
06:55And those teams are 9-8-1 against the spread this year.
06:58The one that I'm fascinated by is the Seahawks giving 14 to the Colts.
07:02So, you've got your power ratings.
07:04And then you've got the Colts with a quarterback who might be our age or maybe not.
07:09How do you go about hanging a number in a game like that?
07:15He's not my age.
07:16He's probably between.
07:17He's closer to me than you.
07:19You look great, Johnny.
07:20You look fantastic, but your power ratings, I'm sure, don't have Seattle 14 points better
07:26than Indy.
07:27Definitely not.
07:28Well, the line on this game was about three and a half Seahawks when the Colts have all
07:35their players.
07:36But they don't have all their players.
07:38They're going with a rookie quarterback from Notre Dame who has very limited experience.
07:42Or they're going with Phillip Rivers who, you know, just called them out of the gym and
07:47said, hey, you feel like playing football?
07:49He goes, yeah, I think I can still throw the football.
07:52So, I mean, this team right now is going in a bad direction, first of all, as far as winning
07:59and losing.
07:59And second of all, how do you compete in this league without at least a half-decent quarterback?
08:06Now, Riley Leonard wasn't bad in college, but, you know, I didn't think that he would
08:13turn into any kind of a quality pro.
08:16And he still might.
08:17But to throw him in the fire like this against this team in Seattle, who's probably one of
08:22the most toughest home fields there is because of the noise factor, just asking a lot here.
08:29So, that's the reason.
08:30I mean, think about it.
08:31If Seahawks score first in this game, well, they're halfway home already, right?
08:37So, we have to put up a number here that makes sense to get people to at least think about
08:44the Colts side.
08:45All right, Johnny, we'll let you leave us with this.
08:48And this is an unfair hypothetical question, but it fits into a debate that we've been having
08:53today because of the comments of Joe Burrow yesterday in Cincinnati, where he sounded like
08:57he wasn't sure if he wanted to play football or play for the Bengals anymore.
09:00You said the spread for the Niners right now, they are 12 and a half point favorites against
09:05the Titans.
09:06What would the spread be if Joe Burrow was their quarterback?
09:10It would be just a little, probably about maybe 15.
09:13It wouldn't be that much higher.
09:15I mean, San Francisco has a system and just play within that system.
09:21Now, Joe Burrow, you know, you can open it up a little more with a guy like Joe Burrow.
09:27But, yeah, but you still don't look at the receivers that he has in Cincinnati, and he
09:33doesn't even have Aiyuk to throw to on this team.
09:36So, you know, it's not like it's the greatest situation to come into.
09:40Johnny, always great to see you.
09:42You do.
09:42You look great.
09:43You look just like Phillip Rivers.
09:44Oh, yeah.
09:44Thank you so much for hanging for a bit.
09:48Thanks, guys.
09:49Good talking to you.
09:50All right, Johnny Avello.
09:51All right.
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