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00:00You called it unfulfilling, kind of like a wild-card playoff spot.
00:05Kyle Shanahan today was asked about the one seed, number one.
00:13And Kyle was not happy about it.
00:16Check it out.
00:17No, everyone tries to with me, and then I usually snap at them.
00:21You can just as easily lose four games in a row as win four games in a row,
00:25and so four games is a long ways away,
00:28and there's a lot of things that can happen, so I really don't reflect at all.
00:32Super boring, but he's 100% right.
00:35Do you want to know what's really dangerous for 49er fans right now?
00:40We've already decided that they're in.
00:43That's it.
00:44They better be.
00:45And you can feel that way, and I agree with you.
00:48But they're not.
00:50It's not over yet at all.
00:54Let me pull these standings up right now, and let's play this out.
00:57Okay.
00:58Okay?
00:59The Eagles or the Cowboys, but the Eagles are probably going to win that division.
01:04NFL.com has them at 92% to make the playoffs.
01:08And what are the Cowboys at?
01:09The Cowboys are in the also receiving votes, and they are,
01:15man, I've got to scroll all the way down,
01:17they are like at 15%?
01:20See, I would have guessed even lower.
01:22But just by virtue of the fact that it's at 15%, you can't forget about them yet.
01:27They're at 500, 6-6-1.
01:29The Packers and the Bears, I would imagine right now, are both at a very high likelihood to go.
01:35Packers at 94, the Bears are at 65%.
01:3865 is, okay, that's interesting.
01:41By the way, same record as the Niners at 9-4.
01:44Now keep an eye on these Detroit Lions.
01:46They play the Rams this weekend.
01:49This becomes a really weird game, I've decided,
01:52because I want to mention again,
01:54I appreciate the listeners who pointed out to me last night
01:59an error that I made on the show yesterday.
02:02You hate to see it.
02:03Well, no, it happens.
02:03So the Niners, I thought, would win the tiebreaker over the Rams
02:09if the Rams simply lost one more game.
02:12It's not true.
02:14That game, if they're only going to lose one,
02:16that game has to be the game against Seattle
02:19for the Niners to win the tiebreaker.
02:23Because right now, the Rams do have an edge on the Niners.
02:26They have an edge on the Niners in common opponents.
02:30And that would come before conference record.
02:33Division record would be the same.
02:35Obviously, they split their head-to-head.
02:38So then it would go to common opponents and the Rams would win.
02:40But if they lose to Seattle, then the Niners have the edge
02:43because the Niners will have the better division record.
02:47So let me ask you this without a snap reaction.
02:51The Lions play the Rams this weekend.
02:53Who are you rooting for?
02:55You are rooting for the Lions.
02:57Are you?
02:58Absolutely.
02:59I'm not 100% convinced on that.
03:01I am because it gives you a straighter line to the division and a home game.
03:06If the Rams keep winning, you're a wild card and you're going to be the 5 seed at best.
03:12But as I said, a loss to the Lions does not give the Niners the edge on the division.
03:19It gives you an edge.
03:20You still need the Rams to lose again.
03:22To Seattle.
03:23But if they lose to just Seattle, that does the same thing, in other words.
03:29No, and if you run the table and they go 2-2, you win the division.
03:34Right.
03:34And you're the 1 seed.
03:35But you win the division if you run the table and they go 3-1,
03:38provided that that 1 is against Seattle.
03:40And my point in asking the question is that if the Rams beat Detroit,
03:45I don't have a calculator and all of this in front of me,
03:50but I have to believe that the Niners' playoff odds, not division odds,
03:55but their playoff odds go up if the Rams win
03:59because it knocks out the No. 1 competitor from behind.
04:04In terms of someone who could catch you.
04:06Because the Lions would fall.
04:07That would be their 6th loss.
04:10They would be 8-6.
04:12The NFL.com has them at 50% right now.
04:15The Lions.
04:16With the win, they go to 72%.
04:18With the loss, they go to 40%.
04:20There you go.
04:20So not a dramatic plummet, but their odds would go down.
04:24Detroit's got Pittsburgh, at Minnesota, and at Chicago as their last three.
04:29Here's my point in saying this.
04:31The Niners have the Lions on conference record,
04:34which would be, since they don't play each other,
04:36that actually, correct me if I'm wrong,
04:38will you check on this, Grandy?
04:40If it's not a division foe, like the Rams and Niners,
04:44if it's the Lions and Niners that ended up tied at the end of the year for a wild card,
04:49do they go to common opponents first, or do they go to conference record?
04:53Because the Niners have the Lions on conference record.
04:57I'd have to look up common opponents.
04:59I don't even know exactly what they are.
05:01Obviously, the Lions are playing the Rams.
05:03It's head-to-head, then it's percentage in conference,
05:07and then it is percentage in common games.
05:10So here you go.
05:11The Niners have the Lions on tiebreaker.
05:14I can almost for sure already.
05:16The Lions already have four conference losses.
05:18The Niners only have two.
05:19And if the Lions were to lose to the Rams this weekend,
05:22that would be five conference losses.
05:24You've got them.
05:25You only have two conference games left.
05:28So you have the tiebreaker on the Lions.
05:30That would be their sixth loss.
05:32You would effectively eliminate them from getting that last wild card spot
05:36simply by winning two more games.
05:38That's it.
05:39Two more games, and that's it.
05:41You have the Lions.
05:43So I hear you, but I wonder.
05:46I'm thinking bigger than just, you know, let's just get in.
05:50No, I know you are, but I don't know how much the Lions beating the Rams.
05:56Sure, it doesn't hurt, but the Seattle one is the one you need.
06:00That's the one you need.
06:00Right, and I do think that if you want to get by the Rams,
06:04you're going to need the loss to Seattle,
06:07but you also need Seattle to beat them.
06:08So when you beat Seattle, that you hold the tiebreakers over everybody.
06:12So I'm thinking more about the one seed than I am just thinking about,
06:16oh, let's just get the five and let's keep Detroit out of it.
06:19And I think that this Detroit-Ram game is a very interesting one,
06:23even though it's in L.A., a little Jared Goff revenge game.
06:28And as we talk a lot about on this show,
06:31the Ram home field advantage isn't really a home field advantage.
06:33It's not much of one, no.
06:34They'll be chanting Jared Goff inside the Rams stadium this weekend.
06:38There's no question.
06:40And that's fun.
06:41It's a good dynamic.
06:43It's weather controlled.
06:44It's two really good offenses.
06:46I think the ball's going to be flying up and down the field.
06:48Rams for sure.
06:50You give them the edge just because Detroit doesn't offer a whole lot defensively right now.
06:54So the idea of the Rams not scoring 30 in this game is almost laughable to me.
06:58I think that they for sure will.
07:00It's just a matter of whether the Lions,
07:01it's going to look, it's no different than that Cowboy game
07:04the last time we saw the Lions play.
07:06If you can score 40, you can win.
07:08But you better because the Rams are going to score 35.
07:12Like I'm almost sure of it.
07:13And Rams, Detroit rather, with that extra rest,
07:15having played on Thursday.
07:17And, you know, the Rams in a little bit of a tight spot
07:20where things have gone their way.
07:23And the fact that Amon Ross St. Brown played through the,
07:26what was it, an ankle injury?
07:28Yeah.
07:28And he was able to play and look good.
07:30Yeah, and now long rest.
07:31So he should be, as far as I know, he should be good to go.
07:35I haven't even seen any Lions practice reports today.
07:37But, yeah, I think that they're, at least offensively,
07:40I think they're pretty whole.
07:42I know LaPorta is out for the year,
07:44and they've had a bunch of people lost on defense.
07:46But they should be good to go.
07:48They should be good to go.
07:50And a little bit of a trap game for the Rams
07:51because they do go to Seattle the next week.
07:54And so everything that you were talking about where, yeah,
07:57for the Rams, it's about the Seattle game for the division
08:00more so than it is, you know, the Detroit game.
08:03Then they go to Atlanta.
08:04They host Arizona.
08:06So for the Rams, you're looking at really two more games in your season.
08:10I mean, the Atlanta one, out of Atlanta can be a funky game.
08:14If Atlanta still is playing for something.
08:16Right, but, I mean, look, remember what happened?
08:17Two weeks ago, it would have been like, oh, Carolina, yeah, right.
08:20And they beat them.
08:21So, like, and I think that actually goes to Kyle's point.
08:24Let me play it again.
08:25He's asked if he's thought about the one seed at all.
08:28No, everyone tries to with me.
08:30And then I usually snap at them.
08:32You can just as easily lose four games in a row
08:35is win four games in a row.
08:36And so it's four games is a long ways away.
08:39And there's a lot of things that can happen.
08:40So I really, I don't reflect at all.
08:43I know it's easy as a fan to blow off what he's saying
08:45as a bunch of coach speak, but he is so right.
08:49There has never been a four-game stretch
08:52that I can think of in the history of the NFL
08:54where we don't see it differently after it's over
08:58than we did four weeks earlier.
08:59You know what I mean by that?
09:00Yeah.
09:01The whole league turns over.
09:04If I go back four weeks ago and ask you about the Colts,
09:07what are you going to say?
09:08Man, they're heading toward the one seed
09:10and they might be the best team in football.
09:12And they're now in third place
09:13and there's a 44-year-old running around at practice.
09:17So, like, that is what can happen in a month's time in the NFL.
09:23So Kyle is not wrong at all.
09:26Like, I don't even want to think about all this stuff.
09:30We shouldn't have to.
09:31We know.
09:32We know.
09:33Fred Warner's out.
09:34Nick Bosa's out.
09:35And just because we've already had more than our share of injuries
09:38with the 49ers does not mean we can't have more again.
09:42It can all change in just an instant.
09:45So from that perspective,
09:47while I share your hopes and goals for the 49ers,
09:52I think, and boy, this is going to be a tough conversation in my house
09:55because my daughter gets really mad
09:57if people aren't, like, rooting for the right things.
09:59Yeah.
09:59Like, if you have a Ram on your fantasy squad,
10:01she gets really ticked off at you.
10:03Really ticked.
10:05I'm not even kidding.
10:06It's just business, Ella.
10:07I know, exactly.
10:08I'm like, I'm over here trying to win.
10:09Right.
10:10Like, why can't the Rams lose 35-30
10:12and Devontae Adams has two scores?
10:14Why can't I root for that?
10:16No, Dad!
10:17It's wrong!
10:18We're not doing that.
10:19She gets so ticked.
10:21But I've got to think about this.
10:23I think I might be rooting for the Rams to win this one
10:26because it goes a long way
10:28in really bolstering the Niners' chances
10:31to just get in the tournament.
10:33And that's goal one, isn't it?
10:35Sure, it's goal one,
10:36but I think that you already have the mindset that they're in.
10:40Now, things can happen, and collapses can happen,
10:43and to win the division is a bit of a long shot.
10:45I'm looking at the NFL.com numbers.
10:47What's it say?
10:48The Rams, to win the division, 55%.
10:50The Seahawks, 35%.
10:53The Niners are at 10%.
10:54Interesting.
10:55And a lot of that will be predicated on Seattle beating the Rams.
11:00Niners run the table, and I ran this before.
11:02Rams go 2-2.
11:04Seattle goes 3-1 with a win over the Rams.
11:07You go 4-0, you win the division.
11:08And you're likely at 13-4 the one seed.
11:11But you said Rams go 2-2.
11:13If Seattle beats the Rams, 3-1 is fine also.
11:173-1, if the loss is against Seattle, and the Niners run the table,
11:21and the Niners are the one, they win.
11:23Yeah.
11:24They win the division.
11:25Which is fine.
11:25So the Rams can actually beat Detroit.
11:29And again, it's that Seattle Rams game a week from tomorrow night.
11:33It's a monster.
11:34What a monster.
11:35Right.
11:35The Rams can go 3-1 and beat Seattle.
11:40And I guess at that point, would they win the division?
11:43They would win the division.
11:44At 13-4, because they'd hold the tiebreaker over the Niners,
11:46the common opponents.
11:48Yeah, so everything comes down to that game, Seattle against the Rams.
11:51Right.
11:51So why not root for the Rams to go ahead and win this one?
11:54Because that knocks Detroit down.
11:56And what if things don't go so great?
11:58What if you don't beat the Bears?
11:59What if you don't beat Seattle?
12:01That's totally possible.
12:03So that's all I'm saying.
12:05Like, I don't know how much you gain by the Rams losing to Detroit
12:11in the chase for the division.
12:14The only thing you gain by that...
12:16Is the one seed.
12:17No, you don't.
12:19Yeah, because if they're 12-5 and you're 13-4, you get the one seed.
12:22Right.
12:22If the Rams go 2-2.
12:24They need to lose to Seattle either way.
12:25Even if the Rams are 13-4, if you're 13-4, if they lose to Seattle,
12:29you're in.
12:30You're the one.
12:30So I guess my point, the Detroit thing, the only way the Detroit thing matters
12:35is if the Niners don't run the table.
12:38Let's say they go 3-1.
12:39It opens up the possibility that the Rams lose again.
12:44Like if they were to lose in Atlanta, for example.
12:46Oh, boy.
12:47Then you would win.
12:49But, I mean, that is so unlikely.
12:51You're asking for a three-game losing streak for the Rams?
12:54And the Falcons are already eliminated, so it's going to be the Kirk Cousins Bowl.
12:58You know, Kirk's going to be out there running around trying to do things.
13:01Well, I mean, they were tied with Seattle at half.
13:04Yeah.
13:04It looked like they were going to give them a game.
13:06Well, a 6-6.
13:07I mean, Seattle.
13:08But they were actually the aggressor in the first half,
13:11and then Seattle came out and ran the opening kickoff back.
13:13Ran the kickback, yep.
13:14And then it was just like everything started rolling downhill.
13:18Anyway, yeah, you do you.
13:20I'm going to root for the Rams this weekend.
13:22Yeah.
13:22I think it helps the Niners.
13:24Okay.
13:24I'll be rooting for Detroit plus the 5-1.5,
13:28because that's the pick that I made.
13:29Okay.
13:30I think the Lions are a very live underdog in that game in L.A.,
13:36and I think you're right about the type of game.
13:38It's going to be an offensive shootout,
13:40and I'm rooting for Jameer Gibbs because of the fantasy purposes.
13:43I can root for my friend to get Detroit plus 5-1 and a half
13:47and the Rams to still win the game.
13:49Rams by a field goal.
13:50Give me Jameer Gibbs.
13:51Jameer Gibbs scores two tighties.
13:53Two?
13:54Yeah.
13:54I'm looking for three or nine.
13:56I mean, he's been, he had quite a month.
13:58I've got to check and see if I'm playing against him this week.
14:00In one of those other leagues, yeah.
14:01I don't think that I am.
14:02That's fine.
14:03Thank God.
14:03There are a couple players around the league where it's just like,
14:05I can't stand rooting against them is so futile.
14:10Like, I was playing up against Josh Allen last week.
14:13Yeah.
14:14You're in snow.
14:16Everything's going wrong,
14:17and you still look up at the end of the game,
14:19and it's like he scored 40 points.
14:21God, it's ridiculous.
14:23He's ridiculous, yeah.
14:24It's like I don't want anything to do with that at all.
14:27It's fantasy in a nutshell.
14:29Yeah.
14:29I'm sitting with a third pick,
14:31and I had a choice of Saquon Barkley or Jameer Gibbs,
14:33and my whole season basically swung.
14:36We all remembered.
14:37It was on the air.
14:38Yeah, it was great.
14:38It was one of my proudest moments.
14:40Jameer Gibbs, click.
14:41Yeah.
14:42It's the way that had to go.
14:43It was.
14:45It's the way that went.
14:46You don't even know how many conversations there were after that
14:50over like,
14:52You bastard!
14:53I love you!
14:54I had so many people who were like,
14:57but Shasky did this,
14:58and Dibs,
14:59and then Shasky did this,
15:00and I'm just like,
15:01it's Jameer Gibbs.
15:03It's fine.
15:03Jameer Gibbs.
15:04Everything's fine.
15:05Yeah.
15:05I mean,
15:06It was a good pick, Dibs.
15:08I like the pick.
15:09I like your pick.
15:09I like the player.
15:10Yeah, Dibs, I like your picks.
15:11It worked out.
15:12It did.
15:12Yep.
15:12It did.
15:13Even though I had to take you behind the woodshed over the weekend.
15:16By two.
15:18Stop, Grandy.
15:19It was by one.
15:20One and change, yeah.
15:21What did I do?
15:22That's how, I mean,
15:23your title of season last year was winning by .8, 1.3.
15:28Yeah, you and the Chiefs, same thing.
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