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00:00I know both of us kind of want to get this off our chest,
00:02and I think the worst part about it for me is it makes me feel old.
00:07It makes me feel old.
00:08The holidays are here, and I bet, I know I can speak to this,
00:13I've never had a holiday that doesn't end at a relative's house
00:19where there are elderly men on couches and chairs
00:23complaining about how things aren't the way they used to be in sports.
00:29Yep.
00:30It is every single holiday I've ever been to,
00:33and we're getting to a point now where those old-timers are just leaving at 4 o'clock.
00:39They don't even want to sit around.
00:41The night game? Night game.
00:44Oh, back when I was.
00:45Every single holiday.
00:50And I have always promised I don't want to be one of those guys.
00:55I want to be 80 years old and still enjoying the hell out of the,
01:03I'm sure by then there'll be 17 games on Thanksgiving Day.
01:07Yep.
01:08I love the young people.
01:10All of it.
01:10All of it.
01:11I want to watch all of it.
01:12I want to enjoy it.
01:13I want the kids to enjoy it and the grandkids.
01:15That's what, I don't want to sit there and talk about how back in the day,
01:20we didn't have video controllers in our hands.
01:25Like, you had to get up and go over there and change the channel.
01:28I don't want to do that.
01:30And analytics is making me feel old.
01:32Yeah.
01:33Because I keep having the same conversation with people,
01:38which is, I understand on some level you all are doing math.
01:43And it's like the example you just brought up,
01:45which tells us that if you're down 14 with less than five minutes to go in the game
01:50and you score a touchdown, you go for two.
01:53Because mathematically you're supposed to.
01:55And I can't for the life of me figure out when analytics is going to take into account
02:01the emotions, the momentum, the vibe of a sideline,
02:06and all the things that go in to a decision like that.
02:10Black Friday, the last time these Eagles played,
02:13you are down in a football game by 16.
02:18And you score a touchdown.
02:21And you went for two.
02:23And you didn't get it.
02:25I'm sorry, I guess you were down by 15.
02:27Correct.
02:27Down by 15 and you scored a touchdown and you went for two.
02:30And you'll say, Mark, you have to go for two on one of them.
02:33Right.
02:34But you're at home.
02:35You have just gotten the crowd into the game.
02:37You have Uncle Mo on your sideline.
02:39You're feeling it.
02:40And you go for two and you don't get it.
02:43And the game is over.
02:46And people leave the stadium.
02:48Right.
02:48Because now you're down by two scores.
02:50And somewhere somebody's telling me that mathematically that's the right thing to do.
02:54And I don't get it.
02:57And I'm going to be one of them dudes.
02:58Yeah.
02:59I'm going to be on the couch being like, these analytics have ruined everything.
03:03Honey, we're going home.
03:05It's 430.
03:06Let's go to bed.
03:07That's right.
03:07That's right.
03:08I don't want to do that.
03:09I don't.
03:09I mean, I understand the analytics part of it.
03:12Yesterday, a couple of them really kind of had me scratching my head.
03:15The Browns won.
03:16You're down by 14.
03:18You score a touchdown.
03:19And you go for two.
03:21So you go for two.
03:22That way, you cut it to six.
03:24And if you score another touchdown, then you kick the extra point and you win the game.
03:28Okay.
03:28But if you don't get the two, now you need to score a touchdown and get the two just to tie.
03:33So for me, whatever the analytics, it makes more sense to score a touchdown, get the PAT.
03:40You're down seven, score another touchdown.
03:42Well, now you can decide, do we want to play for the tie or do we want to go for the win?
03:46And the other one was Andy Reid.
03:48It was fourth and four at his own 30-yard line.
03:52And it was about, I don't know, eight minutes left in the game.
03:55And it's a tie ball game against Houston.
03:56And for the first time in his entire career as a head coach, he went for it on fourth down.
04:03In his own end, in a game that was tied in the fourth quarter.
04:08And the analytics, and I was reading this on ESPN earlier today, the analytics said that
04:14they had a 51% chance of winning if they went for it in that spot.
04:18And what was their chance of winning if they didn't, if they punted?
04:21I didn't see that part of it, but just seeing that it was a 51% chance to me is, it's iffy.
04:27And if you don't get it, which they didn't, Houston's got a short field.
04:30They go down and they score to go up by seven, and you don't score again and you lose.
04:35You lose.
04:36See, what I'll, like admittedly, what I don't understand is when they do analytics, how many
04:43different things are you taking into account?
04:45Like obviously the analytics of what's our chances of getting a first down?
04:49Well, do those analytics know that you're playing the best defense in football?
04:53Right.
04:53Do the analytics know that the Houston Texans offense has not as so much as even gotten
05:00basically a first down in the second half?
05:02They can't move the ball.
05:04They literally cannot move the ball.
05:06They cannot get a pass off in the second half of this game.
05:09Do the analytics know that?
05:11Because I would argue the only way Houston was going to score in the rest of that game
05:15is if you handed them the ball in scoring territory.
05:18At the 30, yeah.
05:18Which is exactly what the Chiefs did.
05:20Do the analytics know that the Chiefs are down two starting offensive linemen?
05:25And Pat Mahomes has spent the entire game running for his life.
05:29Three.
05:29Started the game without two.
05:31Oh.
05:31First play of the game, lost their left tackle for the season, by the way.
05:35The answer is no.
05:36The analytics don't know that.
05:38And so I'm with you, and maybe it's because I'm old and you're now old because you're north
05:43of 50, but for me, it's about more than just what does the math tell you?
05:47And if the math tells you one thing but the eye test and your feel tells you another, then
05:53you go with what you feel because you're the one who's actually coaching the game.
05:59I see it everywhere.
06:01I see it all over.
06:02I mean, on a different level, this is the argument that a lot of people are having about the NBA
06:08because while it's not an in-game decision, it is the analytics of their health, and that's
06:17why you're seeing load management.
06:19And then there are also the in-game plays.
06:22Like, this will really get y'all going.
06:25You want to know what analytics says?
06:28Play pods.
06:30Yeah.
06:30Oh, yeah.
06:30So there's another one that I know a lot of people, a lot of us, get frustrated with,
06:38but on some level, that's what the analytics are saying.
06:42And I get it.
06:43You know what I mean?
06:44Like, you can't totally abandon analytics because you'll get beat.
06:47There are a lot of things in life that I do think that we have to cop to, even though
06:52we may not agree with them, we may not love them, we may see the larger picture as dangerous.
06:58Like, if I asked, and you could totally do this by age, if I asked every American, if
07:05we could do away with cell phones, would you?
07:09And I know what the...
07:10Of course not.
07:11Well, but it depends on your age.
07:13Right.
07:13Because, like, while I don't want to give up my cell phone, I don't want to give up the
07:17conveniences, I also have teenagers in my house, and I've watched all of the damage
07:23that they can do.
07:23And there's no going back, but, like, we have to do this, because this is what we're
07:29doing.
07:30We're doing cell phones.
07:31And so you have to learn how to work with them, because they're here, and we're not going
07:36back.
07:36Same thing, I think, with analytics.
07:38And what I don't know if we know yet, how to work with them.
07:42Like, they're here, and we need them, and we'll use them, but we've got to learn how to
07:48use them in a healthy way.
07:50And baseball, you watch them do this.
07:52They're here, we're doing it, and then they went, ooh, I think we went a little too far.
07:57So, now, we can't have five infielders all standing over at second base.
08:02We can't do that.
08:03So we're going to back this thing up a little bit.
08:05I think the NFL needs to...
08:07Girl, you look good.
08:08You better back that thing up a little bit, because the fourth down thing, you've all gotten
08:14out of control.
08:15Oh, you've gotten complete...
08:17You've lost yourselves in this fourth down thing, completely, based on silly math that
08:23does not take into account your sideline and your personalities.
08:27Yeah, and the crowd and the game situation and the rest of it.
08:29And not every team has done so.
08:32And it's interesting, because Kansas City is number one in the NFL in fourth down conversion.
08:38They convert...
08:39Going into the game, anyway, they were converting at about an 80% rate on fourth down.
08:44So there's part of that as well.
08:45Like, how good are we on fourth down?
08:48And Philadelphia and the tush push, if it's fourth and one anywhere, I get it.
08:52You go for it.
08:53Maybe not inside your own 20, but they're so good at the tush push that, you know, the
08:58analytics are one thing, but also the reality of how good you are in short yardage is another.
09:04I just think that game situation and who you have personnel-wise, who the defense is,
09:11how's your defense playing, what's the weather?
09:13These are all factors that should play into it more than they are.
09:17Yeah.
09:17I tell you what, I am not challenging the Houston Texans defense.
09:23That's good.
09:23They are out of control.
09:26They're incredible.
09:27So yeah, I'm with you.
09:28Three offensive linemen down, and I'm facing that pass rush.
09:32And they, like...
09:33By the way, I know it looked clean on TV.
09:36I think it was in the 20s last night.
09:38And people are like, oh my gosh, Kevin, these receivers keep dropping balls.
09:42Yeah, it's 22 degrees.
09:44Felt like 17.
09:45Yeah.
09:45Patrick is out there throwing ice balls at people.
09:49It's not easy.
09:50You gotta take...
09:51So that metric cannot be the same in September as it is in December.
09:56But I fear that it is.
09:58Well, and it has to be, like, dependent or reliant on who you're playing in.
10:02What's the situation?
10:03You mentioned it before.
10:04Houston's offense was doing next to nothing.
10:07So you give them a short field where C.J. Stroud and company can just go 30 yards and score
10:12and take a seven-point lead.
10:14Or you punt it down there and make them go 85 yards and see if they can do that.
10:19So it's more than just looking at the situation.
10:22And Andy Reid actually came out today and said, yeah, I screwed it up.
10:25Not only did he screw up going for it, but also the play call, which was Mahomes in the gun
10:30when they tried to throw it to Hollywood Brown over the middle and it was incomplete.
10:35Like, it was the play call.
10:36It was the decision.
10:37It was a lot of things.
10:38I couldn't believe that he was going for it in the moment.
10:40Me either.
10:40I'm like, Houston, if you miss this, they can kick a field goal right now.
10:47They can go zero yards and take the lead on you in the fourth quarter.
10:51And with that defense, I'm just, I was going to play pinball with them all day.
10:56You want to punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, we'll do it all day long.
10:59Houston was not going to go on a drive.
11:01Yep.
11:01It was wild.
11:02Then they scored twice.
11:03And it was the same thing, but it was an interception and it was a failed fourth down.
11:07Gene in Oakland wants to weigh in on this, who also does not want to be an old fart.
11:13Hi, Gene.
11:13Thank you for calling.
11:16Hey, guys.
11:17Unfortunately, I already am an old fart.
11:19I'll be 80 years old in about six months.
11:21But anyway.
11:23Are you really about to turn 80, Gene?
11:26In July, yes.
11:27My goodness.
11:29Don't worry.
11:29You're doing great.
11:30You'll hear from me.
11:31I know.
11:31Yeah, thank you very much.
11:32Yeah, you're going to join the parade down Market Street when I, never mind.
11:38Anyway.
11:39Hey, listen.
11:40Okay, so listen.
11:42What you're describing is what I call old fartism, which I fight all the time.
11:47So I try to stay current.
11:48I try to, you know, change with the times.
11:51But there are a couple of things that do bother me.
11:54Yeah.
11:54You know, going for it on fourth down all the time, that troubles me a bit.
11:58But what you're talking about, you know, going for the two points instead of, you know,
12:03taking a field goal and a tie and, you know, going from there.
12:07But there's one thing in particular that really bugs me.
12:11And back in the day, it seemed to me that when you had second and short, you know, you
12:17do a play option.
12:20So you have a choice.
12:21All right.
12:21You run it for the yard.
12:23Or, you know, you fake the defense and maybe you throw for 20 or even a touchdown.
12:27I don't see that very often.
12:29In fact, I rarely see it.
12:31So my question is, why not?
12:35Is that analytics, too?
12:37I mean, everything is, Gene.
12:39It all is.
12:41I mean, part of it is just, and thanks, Gene.
12:43Look, all things evolve.
12:45And there's nothing wrong with that.
12:47That's a good thing.
12:48It's complete nature and all of that.
12:51They all evolve.
12:52But if you're wondering if a sports team, your favorite sports team, if they do what
12:59they're doing because of analytics, the flattered answer is yes.
13:03Do you know that these teams now all have entire departments, rooms that have been built
13:10into high-tech computer rooms run by an entire team of people that are totally dedicated to
13:20performance?
13:21And it's all the same thing.
13:23It's all analytics.
13:24Now, there are in-game decision analytics, and then there's body analytics, performance
13:28analytics, but it's all analytics.
13:30It governs, I would argue, just about everything that these teams do now.
13:35Yeah.
13:35And not only situation down and distance, but it's all those things that you talked about.
13:39And so you can use it as a tool, but when push comes to shove and you have to make that
13:44decision, you can't just, you're allowed to, I guess, just go by what the book says.
13:49But it's always better, in my opinion, to figure out what you're doing as a team, what's the
13:54game flow.
13:55Is your defense in a spot where they need a rest, or is your defense fresh to where you
13:59can kick the ball and give your defense a chance to go out there and make a play for
14:03you?
14:03It's not as easy as, well, the book says if we go for it, we have a 51% chance to win the
14:09game here, then therefore it's more than 50, so we go for it, makes no sense.
14:14Yeah.
14:14I will say this real quick, like, I don't know if this falls, but it's somewhere between
14:20compliment or whether it's sort of a criticism or whatnot.
14:28I do feel like, I wonder what he would say about this too, I feel like Kyle Shanahan has
14:34been maybe just a touch less affected by analytics math than a lot of other coaches.
14:42Because in fact, like Grandy, I remember, you know, you started the year wanting Kyle
14:47to go for it more on fourth down.
14:50And I thought that was a fair opinion.
14:52But even just by virtue of you having that opinion suggests that this whole bug, if you
14:58want to call it that, has not been caught by Kyle at the same level as a lot of the
15:03other coaches.
15:04Just the fourth down thing.
15:06Now he does go for it a little bit more.
15:08But a lot of these coaches, it's just like a rule now.
15:12It doesn't matter what the hell's going on, they're going for it on fourth down.
15:16And the idea of a field goal on fourth and one, oh, I mean it's unthinkable that somebody
15:22would do that.
15:24No, automatic, you have to go for it, no matter the situation.
15:28Yeah, which is, to me, it's nonsensical.
15:30And I get it when you're inside the five, and it's fourth and one inside the five-yard
15:35line.
15:35Okay, there's a thought of, you go for the seven, and if you don't get it, then you get
15:40zero.
15:41But at least the other team's going to be backed up against their own goal line.
15:43And your defense, if it's worth its weight in gold, can actually get a stop.
15:48And you'll get the ball about midfield, or maybe at your own 40.
15:52And so it becomes a sensible move to do.
15:54The other one is where you're at like the 20 or 25-yard line.
15:58And it's fourth and one.
15:59You take the three.
16:00It's a 40-yard kick.
16:02You take the three.
16:03You put the points on the board.
16:04And then you give your defense a chance to go out there and play with the other team
16:08maybe having it at their own 20 or 25-yard line.
16:11But field goals, like you said, I don't know if it's machismo or what it is, but a lot of
16:16times teams will choose to not go ahead and kick it.
16:20The Niners, by the way, are 24th in the NFL in fourth down conversion attempts.
16:26And part of that is...
16:27That feels right.
16:27Yeah.
16:28Part of that, too, though, is that they're not trailing in games late, where, like, I'm
16:32looking at the board here, and the Giants are number one in fourth down attempts.
16:36And I would bet that a lot of those are because you're down by 14 late in the game, and it's
16:42fourth and whatever, and you have to go for it.
16:44So not all fourth downs are created equally, but the Niners don't go for it very often.
16:48So let's go.
16:49Let's go.
16:50Let's go.
16:50Let's go.
16:51Let's go.
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