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00:00Let's do it. We're joined by Odyssey NFL insider Jason LaConfora, host of the Odyssey original podcast, WannaBet.
00:07Listen to WannaBet now on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, or watch it live daily on Jason's X account.
00:14Insider Calls are brought to you by Nationwide for your insurance and financial needs.
00:19Nationwide is on your side.
00:21Hey, Jason, what's going on tonight? How are you?
00:24I'm doing all right. I'll be doing well with the Green Bay fighting Doug Gottlieb here.
00:29Can hold on to this 11-point win?
00:32Okay.
00:32It started right in the Horizon League. Let's go.
00:35It takes a lot of courage to bet on Green Bay, considering what a calamity last year was for the fight in Gottlieb.
00:43Dude, but trust me, I came out of the gate fading them on WannaBet, and Gottlieb got me twice already.
00:48So I'm on them tonight, baby. Let's go.
00:51If it's not too late, Alabama State and Missouri, we like the over, 155.5.
00:57Alabama State overs are generally the way to go.
00:59Yeah, I'm big on the SWAC this year, Jason. I often text you offline about my SWAC locks.
01:04MEAC overs and SWAC overs. Just check out some of the tempo on those teams and how many shots they missed.
01:10And how little defense they play, too, Jason.
01:13Yes.
01:14That's where the money is.
01:15I got goosebumps right now. You know I love this stuff.
01:17Well, and it's the same way I feel about it.
01:20Speaking of, that's where the money is. The money in the NFL is all about quarterbacks.
01:23Jason, how the hell did this Joe Burrow thing land with you yesterday?
01:29Well, it's obviously a big talking point here in Baltimore, where I do a four-hour show.
01:34Yeah, like at first, I kind of thought it was a rumination of a theme we've heard before, which is a little bit, you know, he's, I think at one point we look back at his whole career back to Ohio State.
01:52And, like, I think he's had double-digit surgeries, you know?
01:55So I think there is a fatigue from being cut open all the time and not having normal seasons and not having normal off-seasons.
02:02But then I was walking the dogs last night, and I went back and listened to the whole thing again.
02:06And I don't know. I mean, I know he mentioned Andrew Luck and stuff, but he just fell back to come back from an injury.
02:13I think, you know, he's a pretty cerebral guy, and he had a whole off-season plan for them that included, you know,
02:19I know how he could structure contracts, and I know how we could handle the cap, and I've studied all this stuff.
02:25You know, I think he spent a couple hours the other night on Spotrack or whatever looking at their cap, like,
02:31just looking at their roster and the caliber of players and how many holes they have on their depth chart on defense and how needy they are.
02:38And that guy's not going to go out and spend. He spent on the offense. He's not going to now go out and spend on the defense.
02:44And I think there's just a mental fatigue of all of that.
02:47Like, you know, he got everything he wanted last year's off-season, right?
02:52We got Jamar long-term. We got Higgins. We got Gusecki. You know, Hendrickson's hanging around.
02:59He's not really playing football.
03:01And I think there's a little bit of regret in that he sees this thing moving forward and knows that, like,
03:08I need to score 45 more than ever, and I'm going to probably need – like, there's a pretty decent chance
03:13their defense could be worse next year.
03:14But I think he's frustrated with the front office.
03:18I mean, if some of it's Zach Taylor, it might be.
03:21It might be.
03:23But I think he is experiencing some mental fatigue realizing,
03:28I did just fight back to come back in the season that most people thought was lost.
03:33I played my ass off.
03:35I made one or two throws I'd want back.
03:37I still threw for four touchdowns against a team people think they're going to the Super Bowl
03:41in the snow on the road, you know?
03:44And I made two mistakes, and that's one too many.
03:48Like, when, you know, the margins are just so slim.
03:51When you look at the situation going forward, because I thought it was curious, Jason,
03:56that he did it now in advance of Week 15, do you get the sense that he's going to want
04:01out of Cincinnati or out of the NFL or neither?
04:05I've never thought he's finishing his career in Cincinnati.
04:07I just don't.
04:08He's such a competitor.
04:09He's so driven.
04:11He's such an assassin.
04:12And, you know, Mike Brown has changed in some ways, but he hasn't changed in many.
04:16And that's a mom-pop shop, and, you know, it's Katie Blackburn running it, and Duke
04:22Tobin's had a job for life there running personnel, and it's like he's part of the family now.
04:27And I think that Joe Burrow knows that he burns to win in a way that they don't.
04:33And I don't think he's going to spend his whole career with that owner and those people
04:38in that front office.
04:39I never really have.
04:42Now, does he have to do what Carson Palmer did, threaten to retire and all that?
04:46I mean, probably, because Mike Brown's really stubborn.
04:51But, yeah, I mean, look, it didn't end great with Boomer there.
04:56It didn't end great with Carson Palmer there.
04:59My suspicion is it doesn't end great with Joe Burrow there.
05:05Jason LaConfora, Odyssey NFL Insider, is with us.
05:09Insider calls are brought to you by Nationwide for your insurance and financial needs.
05:13Nationwide is on your side.
05:14Hey, just so you can weigh in in the sort of, like, fun, faux debate that we've been
05:20having today, let's say Joe Burrow becomes the Giannis of the NFL, and he does get into
05:27that situation with the Bengals where he's demanding out.
05:32I would imagine many, many teams would be interested, but the Bengals, of course, would probably be
05:38looking to get him out of the conference, and they would want probably a quarterback in return
05:42who can play.
05:44So, we threw this out.
05:45Brock Purdy and two ones for Joe Burrow.
05:48Like, should Niner fans want to do that?
05:51Well, Niner fans should want to do that, but that's not going to happen in a million years.
05:55He just paid this kid.
05:56Like, he's not going anywhere.
05:58Right.
05:58And I think Burrow, by mentioning every once in a while all of the surgeries and football
06:04mortality and Andrew Luck is planting the seed, that he may play that card, but I don't think
06:09he can play that card just yet.
06:11He just killed himself to come back from this injury in time to try to salvage what, again,
06:16a lot of rational people thought was already a lost season.
06:19And I don't think Mike Brown would trade this guy.
06:21Like, he was telling teams going into his draft year that this guy's Joe Montana, I wouldn't
06:27trade him for three ones.
06:28And now, yeah, he is Joe Montana, and he went to a Super Bowl.
06:32Like, I don't think he'd trade him for three ones or four ones.
06:35Like, certainly not now and not next year.
06:39And, I mean, I also don't know if Mike Brown's going to live forever.
06:43And, like, I can't go too far down my crystal ball, but I don't think Joe Burrow would be
06:49remotely, remotely, remotely, like, available for, we've got to get through way more drama.
06:57And, like, you know, we've got to get to the whole Hendrickson stage, which, again, I think
07:01he'll get there where he's withholding services.
07:03Is it a hold-in?
07:04Is it a hold-out?
07:05Is that a real injury?
07:06Is that an exacerbated injury?
07:09He's not going anywhere for a while.
07:13But, again, I don't think he'd finish his career there.
07:16Yeah, it's hard to imagine that he would, especially when Cincinnati seems to be so
07:20dysfunctional year after year.
07:22And I wonder about the Brock Purdy part of it, Jason, because he's, obviously, when he's
07:27healthy and he seems healthy now, he's got the 49ers at least winning.
07:31What's your impression of what he's looked like in these last three weeks and also how
07:35the Niners' chances look in the postseason with a beleaguered defense?
07:39Yeah, I just don't think you're going to win in January with one of the most pepid pass
07:47rushers in the NFL.
07:48You know, I just, it's part of the reason why, like, in this town every year, people
07:52like the Ravens are going to the Super Bowl.
07:53And I'm like, well, really?
07:55Because when they play good quarterbacks in January with a bunch of dudes who can't rush
07:59the passer and quarterbacks who are good enough to be able to decode things and can process
08:05quickly, you're not going to be able to scheme up pressure after pressure after pressure.
08:10And I just, like, I don't see them beating.
08:15And the NFC, I think, is better than the AFC this year for the first time in a long time.
08:19I have a hard time seeing them run that gauntlet and having to run that gauntlet on the road
08:24with no pass rush.
08:26I just, and look, it's no pass rush and it's a bunch of dudes who don't make plays on the
08:30ball.
08:31Which, again, it's very much like Baltimore to me.
08:34I just don't think that's going to work.
08:36I don't think Purdy is that transformational.
08:39I, you know, the run game has not been what it's been in the past.
08:42So, I don't fancy their chances to go far in the postseason.
08:48Yeah, I look at this three-game win streak since Brock Purdy has been back and there are
08:52some circumstances in it that are, I don't know if concerning is the right word, right?
08:58But, you know, the Cardinals moved the ball up and down on the 49ers.
09:02It was in a very hefty loss.
09:04Brock throws three interceptions against the Panthers.
09:07It just, do you agree, Jason, that there might be kind of a built-in band-aid on this?
09:14You get the Titans this week.
09:15You might get Phillip Rivers the week after that.
09:18They could go on a five-game win streak and in theory, it doesn't really mean all that
09:24much yet.
09:26Again, I think they're just like Baltimore.
09:28Baltimore rolled off six straight wins.
09:29I mean, it was against Justin Fields.
09:31It was against Dylan Gabriel and then Sador Sanders playing half the game when he had
09:35never practiced the team before and the center didn't know his cadence sound like.
09:39You know, it was Joe Flacco right before Cleveland traded him.
09:45I mean, it was McCarthy in Minnesota throwing picks.
09:51I just think, yes, they're going to be good enough and they're well-coached enough that
09:56they're going to beat the teams they're supposed to beat and they're going to be able to take
09:59this card teams that have quarterbacks who aren't even close to league average, let alone
10:05playoff quality.
10:07But again, I think when the level of competition rises, their lack of blue-chip difference makers
10:14on defense is going to be a problem.
10:16Then upon which teams would you hang the lock and for a shingle as the likely Super Bowl matchup
10:23here with four games left in the regular year?
10:24I mean, I think in the AFC, it's pretty wide open.
10:28I mean, I thought Green Bay and the Rams were two best teams in the NFC coming into the season
10:33and I see no reason to think otherwise.
10:37I think the AFC, man, it could be one of these teams that doesn't have a great quarterback
10:43but has a superpower defense.
10:45So like Denver or Houston, I mean, I would not be shocked if one of those two teams was
10:51the last one standing in the AFC.
10:54The defenses are just that good, especially Houston.
10:57And then Denver, with that defense in altitude, in the cold, home field advantage, I think
11:03that could be a tough out.
11:05Jason Lockenfora, Odyssey NFL Insider.
11:08And by the way, since your podcast is Want to Bet, you should weigh in six minutes before
11:12kickoff here because my partner here picks every primetime game on our show.
11:17He's been really good all year, but he's been bad lately.
11:20He's been cold as ice and he's on the Bucs minus five and a half.
11:24Jason, your reaction?
11:25I can't lay that many points with them, but I can't back Kirk Cousins.
11:31You know, I think B. John should see the ball, and I say that all the time, and Jack Robinson
11:37is an idiot, but Tampa Bay is the worst defense in the NFL by far defending running backs in
11:44the passing game.
11:44Like, it's 10.3 yards per attempt.
11:47I mean, like, nobody else in the league is more than 8.3.
11:50It's like a 130 passer rating when you throw to running backs.
11:54And we saw Gibbs have three catches of 30 yards or more.
11:56We saw Cooks with Buffalo a couple weeks back have two or three catches of 30 yards or more.
12:03Like, I like B. John Long reception 20 yards.
12:05I like B. John Long reception 30 yards.
12:08I think Algier probably finishes a drive on the ground for a touchdown.
12:13I think both quarterbacks, for me, are very live to throw interceptions.
12:17We've parlayed them together to do so on one of that.
12:20But I lean to the under, but I don't even like the under that much because both special
12:24teams are so garbage that you get returns.
12:28Both quarterbacks could throw kick six.
12:30Baker Mayfield's way more hurt than we know.
12:32You can't push the ball downfield.
12:34Weird stuff happened, though, when these teams played.
12:36I mean, both games went crazy over last year.
12:39So, I don't know, man.
12:41I'm usually on a side or a total, but I'm not on either in this game.
12:45Okay.
12:45All right.
12:46So, we have a saying around here when we don't like the pick.
12:49People say, hey, Dibs, your pick stinks.
12:51Did you just say, hey, Dibs, your pick stinks?
12:53No.
12:54I just said I couldn't get there.
12:55I don't.
12:56I mean, I'm not failing it.
12:58I couldn't play either side.
13:02You know, like, did I think Todd Bowles wins the game at the end of the day?
13:07Probably, I guess, but I didn't even play Bucs Moneyline.
13:11Yeah.
13:11NFC South, what are you going to do?
13:12I get it.
13:13Hey, Jason, thanks so much, man.
13:15Have a good one.
13:16All right.
13:17Odyssey NFL insider Jason Locken for Insider Calls are brought to you by Nationwide for
13:21your insurance and financial needs.
13:23Nationwide is on your side.
13:25Jason is the host of the Odyssey original podcast, Wanna Bet?
13:29Remember to listen to Wanna Bet on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, or you can watch it live
13:35daily on Jason's X account.
13:38He says this game's just a big old fat no-go.
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