00:00In the forecast feed, we're taking a look into a very winter-like pattern here.
00:04It's early December, and we're off to a great start for the snow fans in the interior northeast.
00:10And if you like cold, and in the Midwest, you're in business as well.
00:13Now, I realize this may not be the most popular weather for everybody, but we're along for the ride.
00:20We want to stay on top of this and stay in front of this weather-wise so you know what to expect
00:24and how long this might persist. So that's really what we're most interested in.
00:27How long will the cold hold, and when will we see more opportunities for snow,
00:33perhaps farther south than we have so far to this point?
00:37So overall, big picture, another cold blast is coming in Wednesday night through Thursday,
00:41and this is going to be an Arctic front that plunges farther south.
00:46Temperatures are going to be 15 to 20 degrees below historical averages,
00:49and it will be record cold for some, specifically centered on Thursday morning in Iowa.
00:56So here we have some Iowa scenes. I believe this background's from Cedar Rapids,
01:00and some kind of an obelisk there covered in snow.
01:03I thought it was an appropriate background for the graphic.
01:05And look at this. Spencer, Iowa, 14 below zero Thursday morning.
01:08Old record low, nine below.
01:09Here's an interesting one.
01:11Des Moines, Iowa, record low is six below from 1886, 139 years ago.
01:16We may challenge that record low on Thursday morning.
01:21We should tie a record low in Cedar Rapids, break a record in Waterloo.
01:24And by the way, the next night, I'm going to take us into a temperature map here.
01:30Here you can see the core of the cold.
01:32Now look at this. Here the GFS goes bonkers with the cold.
01:35Other models, not as dramatic.
01:37Here's the NAM, another model, the North American model.
01:41And this one has kind of its specialty over the next 84 hours.
01:44And here you can see some sub-zero lows.
01:45It's going to be cold, maybe not as dramatically cold as in the GFS model.
01:52And then here's the European model. Also, a pretty good nugget of cold.
01:57And when I say cold, we're looking at sub-zero lows in a big chunk of real estate here across much of southern Canada and all the way down to Iowa as well.
02:05The next night, we're going to be cooking up a new graphic that has record-challenging lows for the following night in a broader zone.
02:13Now, to get to record territory on December 4th in Iowa, you've got to get below zero for a record.
02:20To get to a record low on December 5th in parts of the Northeast and some sections of the Great Lakes Midwest, the records aren't quite as low.
02:27And you can see hints of near zero, maybe out near Waseon or in Williams County, Ohio.
02:33I used to work in Toledo, so I don't know every county in the nation like I do know Northwest Ohio.
02:37But here also, even the GFS hinting at a little bit of that near Angola, Indiana, and also maybe a little west of Wilmington, Illinois.
02:46So we've got some cold air out there and flirting with record lows within a few degrees in some of those areas coming up.
02:52Now, I know some of you are tuned into this, have your eyes set on snow.
02:56So, we have had one system. Here's our dip in the jet stream that's responsible for the current snow.
03:02That's moving away, out to sea, so we look for the next one.
03:06And here comes our Arctic front, by the way, bringing it into view.
03:10We can draw the front just to make it a little more obvious.
03:13And again, the leading edge of this push is the big cold blast.
03:18But trying to sniff out opportunities for snow behind that.
03:22There's another dip in the jet stream.
03:24Now, this one's not all that pronounced.
03:26It's kind of a flat wave.
03:28But because the jet stream in general, the long wave pattern, the long wave pattern broad scale,
03:35is so much of a trough across the central and eastern U.S., individual dips in the jet stream,
03:41short waves are running through a trajectory that's pretty far south in general.
03:46So, into Friday, here you can see this next dip in the jet stream in the NAM.
03:53You can see this little slash of bright color.
03:57There's a couple of zones there.
03:58It's a dip in the jet stream.
04:00Here's another depiction of it in the European.
04:02And you can see it's actually born out of a trough in the southwest.
04:07It's going to bring us that snow to Denver, Colorado.
04:09We follow that east.
04:10It kind of flattens.
04:12It's not an impressive trough, but it's something.
04:14And it doesn't take much to produce snow.
04:16Even a weak trough, if it's moving through an area with plenty of cold air,
04:22and if there's moisture around, a weak trough can produce some snow.
04:26Now, here is the GFS.
04:28And the GFS is kind of timid on the cold side of this.
04:31You can see it brings us some decent rain into Georgia and the Carolinas,
04:35where it's a little too mild for anything regarding frozen precip.
04:38But there's a little hint into areas around Oak Hill in southern West Virginia,
04:43and into areas like Blacksburg, Roanoke, maybe Charlottesville,
04:46maybe Harrisonburg, Danville, Virginia, where there could be some mixed precip.
04:51But take a look at the NAM.
04:52Looking at that same dip in the jet stream.
04:54I know it's a relatively flat wave, but it's enough to bring us,
04:59for our friends in Milford, Delaware, and parts of areas around D.C. and Baltimore.
05:05I say Milford because I interact regularly with a woman in Milford, Delaware,
05:09who grew up, spent most of her life in Lancaster.
05:11She loves snow.
05:12She lives in Milford.
05:13South Delaware is a tough spot for snow.
05:16But this could be your day.
05:17We are dealing with potential for some snow there.
05:19And then here's another one in the Europeans.
05:23Same wave.
05:24The same wave.
05:25It's a relatively flat wave, but it's juxtaposed on the right side,
05:29in the southern side of this big dip in the jet stream,
05:32with cold air in place, moisture from the Gulf nearby,
05:35and moisture from the Atlantic nearby.
05:36It's in a position where it could bring some snow and ice,
05:40maybe even into northern parts of North Carolina,
05:43and some snow into some of these areas,
05:45like Virginia, the Delmarva Peninsula, on Friday.
05:48It's not going to be much, but a one- to three-inch snow event
05:50before December 10th in Delaware, that's a win if you like snow.
05:55It's not a win if you have to travel.
05:56So that's one thing that we're tracking,
05:57and we actually have a new graphic that I wanted to show you about that
06:00just to give you our official forecast.
06:02Again, we talk about storm scenarios sometimes.
06:04We're getting a little more confident in the overall pattern.
06:07So this is what we're looking at,
06:08and I think we are looking at ice there.
06:11I'd be surprised if we don't see ice in parts of southwest Virginia,
06:15western North Carolina.
06:16I'd also be surprised if we didn't at least see snow
06:19in the southern half of the blue zone.
06:21There's potential for snow up north into Philadelphia and New York as well.
06:25So again, there's potential there.
06:27There's higher potential, the double-check mark, a little farther south.
06:31So that's something to look forward to if you like this kind of thing.
06:35And then beyond that, look at this.
06:36Another wave for Monday, similar area, at least in the GFS,
06:39but not so much in the European model.
06:42But hey, we got more cold and opportunities for snow coming into mid-December.
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