00:00We've got a very hard hit coming to parts of the mid-Atlantic coast, but not the northeast
00:05with this weekend storm that could take the shape of a blizzard. It will check the box of becoming
00:11a storm that goes through bombogenesis, so a quote-unquote bomb cyclone. I know it sounds
00:16like media buzzwords, but there is an actual definition for this. 24 millibars of strengthening
00:20in 24 hours. We'll show you that, how this is going to certainly verify there. And it's possible,
00:26very possible, this could become a blizzard for northeastern North Carolina from the northern
00:31Outer Banks into the area around Norfolk and Virginia Beach. Let's get into it here. Lots
00:36to talk about. I'm going to switch back over to the upper-level map just because I wanted
00:39to show you. I know it's snowing as I speak here on Friday evening in parts of the interior
00:45of Virginia, a little bit of North Carolina, some light flakes breaking out, but that's
00:49not the main storm yet. The main storm, that's being driven by a weak trough here. The main
00:54event. In fact, I've got to pick out 7 p.m. here. That's being driven by some of this weak
00:59jet stream energy and troughiness here in the southeast. But this disturbance responsible
01:05for the Friday evening snow in the plains is the main driver as that rounds the base of
01:10the trough. That's the main driver in spinning up this storm system as that rounds the base
01:14of the trough. And we get that negative tilt up left, bottom right. And it really, really
01:21becomes a storm that fiercely impacts southeast Virginia and eastern parts of the Carolinas.
01:27All the Carolinas will see accumulating snow with this, but you're looking at accumulations
01:30even in Myrtle Beach and a hard hit in Raleigh and Charlotte. So as we take a look at this
01:36storm strengthening, this is the position Saturday evening aloft. That's the upstairs driver, the
01:42upper-level low. And it's going to be a big driver. But at the same time, 7 p.m. Saturday,
01:47here's the surface low, way out to the east. And this is how it behaves. This is driven by
01:53a combination of colder air aloft tied to the upper-level low to the west, moving out over
02:00the water, moving in from the west. And you've got the Gulf Stream, that supply of energy for
02:05these storms just off the Carolina coast. So as we get into it here, we're going to take
02:10a look at how this evolves here. And then we're going to look at impacts here and preserve
02:13a little bit of time for the snow map and our area at greatest risk for a blizzard.
02:17Here we are through late Friday night into early Saturday. This is snowfall from 1 a.m.
02:24to 7 a.m. Snow begins. It's going to be snowing as you wake up, most likely to most of North
02:30Carolina. I was going to say Charlotte. I don't want to promise that because you're going
02:35to be near the southern edge of the snow then. But the snow is going to fill in in
02:38Charlotte. Significant accumulations falling throughout the day. Most likely it's snowing
02:42at daybreak in Charlotte as well. But Raleigh and Charlotte really fill in. The snowfall
02:47rates escalate throughout the course of the morning into midday. And here's GFS. Here's
02:52the NAM. Mid-morning to 1 p.m. snow. And then the Euro, a little timid there, kind of with
02:58maybe a weaker precip signature between the stronger coastal storm and that upper-level
03:04low, cranking out some good stuff there. Heavier snow for a time into areas around the mountains
03:08and the Piedmont. Moving forward though, you can see here's the GFS. It really ramps
03:13up and this becomes a pretty nasty gradient. We'll look at the wind speed forecast here
03:17in just a little bit. Nasty gradient, tight pressure gradient as the storm begins to ramp
03:23up and pull out to sea. But after significant impacts, significant impacts for the mid-Atlantic
03:28coast. Another depiction of this here, here's the NAM. It really produces some hefty, hefty
03:35snowfall rates near and southeast of Raleigh Saturday afternoon. And then it moves north into
03:39the area around Virginia Beach. But look also at Myrtle Beach. There's a little zone here
03:45where you see a kink in the isobars. And that's, again, that's going to be associated with extra
03:52lift in the atmosphere. A secondary zone with great snowfall rates in Myrtle Beach. Accumulations,
03:57the plows will be out, whatever plows exist there. South Carolina DOT will be sent to the east for
04:02that one. And then into Sunday, this pulls out to sea. It will sideswipe Martha's Vineyard
04:08Nantucket with a little snow and strong winds. And then it slams into the Canadian Maritimes.
04:14So that's the storm. It misses the northeastern coast. But it's a hard hit for the Carolinas,
04:19southeast Virginia. Looking a little more closely, we talked about Bombogenesis. Take a
04:23look at this. 7 a.m. Saturday. There is your low pressure system, 1,009 millibars. Pretty good wind
04:29on the north side. You might say that's a pretty weak area of low pressure at that time. The contrast
04:33will be driven by the conflict. A 1031, that's 1,031 millibar high over, I don't know, Youngstown,
04:42Ohio. And a 1009 strengthening, but still relatively weak low to the south. And again,
04:48it's about the strength of the high that drives the gradient in that case. But look at this.
04:53Watch how this strength is. From 1009 millibars, let's go 24 hours later, 977. So that is 33 plus
05:009. We're looking at 42 millibars of strengthening in just 24 hours, a Bomb Cyclone. And look at that
05:06gradient. Look at that tight-packed zone of strong north wind with the pressure gradient there.
05:12What's that do for us? Here we go. I'm going to go to North Carolina first. Top wind gusts through
05:17the forecast hour out to the end of the storm. And I think that's a 54, 54 knots. So 1.15 knots per mile,
05:281.15 miles per hour per knot. 1.15 miles per hour per knot. So 54 knots is about, I'm estimating,
05:3561, 62 mile per hour gusts there. And up into Dare County, 49, you're going to be gusting
05:4056-ish, 55, 56 miles per hour. Down into Virginia, strongest winds by far because of the gradient and
05:48the lack of friction over water, the less friction. I see 45 knot winds. That'll be gusts up to 52, 53,
05:56like 50 to 55 mile per hour gusts possible for Virginia Beach and for Norfolk. Here's a second
06:02opinion. Not as strong in the NAMM. And 51, not about 58, 59 mile per hour gusts there possible
06:09with the European. I want to end this with a quick look at two of our own graphics here.
06:13Here's your snowfall forecast. And you'll notice we're not forecasting even a coding for coastal New
06:19Jersey, but we're going 6 to 12. Virginia Beach. Now Charlotte, I think you're closer to 6. If Raleigh
06:24exceeds 8.9 inches, that would exceed the biggest snow you've seen since before 2018. 2018, you had
06:32a two-day total of 8.9 inches. There's your snow map, a hard hit. And we'll close with a look at our
06:37blizzard potential. This is where it's most likely and the most, most likely area, Virginia Beach and
06:43Norfolk into the northern outer banks. Nasty storm coming to this area. Then it goes out to sea.
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