00:00Bernie's got a closer look here at that Thursday-Friday time period and what we could be seeing in New England.
00:06And certainly when you look at the 10-day forecast, the thing that's striking, look how cold it gets.
00:09The cold keeps coming as we head toward the upcoming weekend and then the next week.
00:13And with that cold, there's always a chance for snow.
00:16We talk about this a lot.
00:17I talked about this on the feed over the last couple of weeks, that when you get an injection of cold air,
00:22you always have two chances for snow on the front end and the back end.
00:26And there is a possibility of snow on the back end this weekend of our next cold air.
00:31But I want to talk about the front end.
00:33That's been Thursday-Friday.
00:34That's been our focus here all of last week.
00:37In fact, we first told you about this two weeks ago, that we saw this pattern coming, that we knew this was arriving, cold air.
00:44I want to show you the source region.
00:46Where is it coming from, the cold air?
00:47It's denoted by this pink here across Hudson Bay.
00:51Watch it come south.
00:52This is this afternoon, and then as we get toward the Tuesday, here's the push across the Canadian prairies into Ontario.
01:01And then by Tuesday night into Wednesday, you see the cold air coming in across the lakes.
01:06With that, there's going to be some snow across the north center of the United States and the upper Midwest and then some lake effect here.
01:12So here we are Wednesday morning.
01:14Let's show you the cold air.
01:15Here it comes across the Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon and then into the northeast tonight.
01:21Now, along the leading edge of that cold air, you bet you there's going to be a frontal boundary.
01:26And when fronts come south and then they stall like I think this is going to do, you always get a storm to form.
01:32Now, the question that we've had over the last two weeks when we saw this pattern was, is where would the storm go?
01:39Would it be out to sea like almost all of them have done so far this late fall and winter season?
01:47Or would this one be different and be guided up the coast?
01:50Because if it's guided up the coast, you get a snowstorm because this air would be cold enough for snow, even in the cities, Philadelphia, New York City, Boston.
01:59But if it stays out to shore, not saying there wouldn't be any snow, but the snow would be limited.
02:04Right now, we think it's going to be this, that the storm is going to be out to sea.
02:08There would be some snow, but it's not going to turn into a snowstorm for many.
02:12And here's why. You have the storm, but this is what decides the fate of the storm.
02:19The dip in the jet stream here, how it's oriented and how far east it is.
02:24And right now, you can see this as we go out through Thursday.
02:28Look how far east the dip in the jet stream is, right?
02:32And because of that, it's so far east that the surface storm, which is going to form down here,
02:38because the winds are going to be out of the west-southwest, you see the winds coming in out of the west-southwest,
02:42where if I'm a storm, where am I going? I'm pushed out to sea,
02:46which means the heavy precipitation is also going to be out to sea.
02:51However, you still have this upper low. You see this spinning in here?
02:56Underneath that, you don't have heavy precipitation, but you are going to have some snow.
03:00So you're going to have some intermittent snow with the upper low.
03:03It's going to be persistent as we get into Thursday, Thursday night, into Friday.
03:08A city like Syracuse, for example, where we had so much snow, you're going to be impacted with snow from this storm.
03:14And when you look at the future radar, you can see what I mean.
03:18Here we are Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
03:21All the precipitation is offshore.
03:23Some rain and snow showers in New York City and Boston.
03:25But then Thursday afternoon, you see this?
03:28While the storm and all the precip is offshore, you've got this snow area here.
03:33Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, New York State.
03:37Notice it's not in the New York City.
03:39It's not in the Philadelphia, Washington, D.C.
03:41I suspect you're not going to get any snow from this of consequence in Philadelphia and Washington, D.C.
03:48New York, I think it's most likely off to your north.
03:51Notice I didn't say Boston yet, because as we roll this out, you still see the snow north and west of the 95 corridor.
03:58But watch what happens Thursday night into Friday.
04:01This starts to try to come back just a little bit toward the Cape, the islands, and eastern New England, along with the snow across the interior.
04:10So what we do is we always like to give you an idea.
04:13What's the probability, for example, of four inches of snow?
04:16It's very low.
04:17I think it's almost zero in Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and also Baltimore.
04:24Now, around New York City, I'd put it around 10%, maybe 15% at most.
04:30You get to Boston 15% to 20%.
04:32You get toward Bangor and Portland, we're in the 35% to 40% chance.
04:36And the other area to watch, interior sections of the northeast, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Burlington, you're around 35%, 40%.
04:44And then once you get into the mountains, into the Appalachians, a much higher probability there.
04:49It's going to be a disruptive snow, I think, north and west of the 95 corridor, but it won't be a big snowstorm.
