00:00Here on the forecast feed, we want to take a look ahead to the early part of next week.
00:04We've got a few different storm systems to talk about, maybe two that we should focus on.
00:09It's really going to be one kind of blurry mess between Monday and Wednesday,
00:14in which we have two separate waves of low pressure bringing us some snow, some ice, and for some, some
00:21rain as well.
00:22Let's take a look at the modeling here before we get too far into our own forecast details.
00:28And you can see, we begin the forecast with, well, on Saturday morning here,
00:33we have a pretty nice little temporary, temporary reprieve from the cold.
00:38You can see there's a little bit of ridginess here across the east.
00:41The base of the trough is far enough west that we're still mild or warm, but not for long.
00:46There's a cold front moving in, and on Saturday evening and Saturday night, we're going to get back into a
00:49colder pattern.
00:50And once again, the center of the trough, the trough axis, sets up shop farther east.
00:55The axis here goes right back over the east coast, putting us back into a colder posture.
01:01Now, we have a few different disturbances rotating on through.
01:05You can see one of these comes through in kind of a fragmented state from the south.
01:11There are some, there's a trough down this way that's coming in from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley.
01:18And then it's kind of a fragmented trough.
01:21There are several different bits of energy, but there's not one consolidated deep trough like you can see to the
01:28north here.
01:29There's a consolidated trough here and then several bits of energy.
01:32But there's certainly a trough axis that continues the little subtle dip in these black lines, indicating where that's located.
01:40That would be something that crosses the mid-Atlantic states.
01:42And then behind that, another one, a new trough of lower pressure that zips through this region here into Tuesday
01:49night and Wednesday morning.
01:50Now, it's a little more consolidated with the European versus the GFS.
01:56But in both cases, not a powerhouse individual storm system.
02:01Let's take a look at how this plays out here with the surface forecast where we all live.
02:06So Saturday, I mentioned that we're in, in the morning, there's still some ridginess off the east coast.
02:13And actually, there's this flow from the southwest right in advance of a front.
02:17Now, this front is going to be driving some changes for the second half of the weekend.
02:22And this is the leading edge of the cold air that sets the table.
02:25A couple of ingredients here that you'll notice.
02:28Strong cold front, but also, look at that big, 1038 high.
02:32High, strong ridge of high pressure over the Canadian prairies.
02:36Let's go ahead to Sunday.
02:38One disturbance on Sunday scoots through, following the front with a little bit of snow on late Saturday night into
02:45Sunday morning.
02:46And there we are, the snowfall that would fall from 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. on Sunday in
02:50southern New England.
02:50Not a big storm, but a little bit.
02:52And then the first wave, this was the fragmented thing that I was showing you.
02:56Monday at 7 a.m. here, it's this guy.
02:59It's not a powerhouse storm system, but there's a trough with some vorticity, some spin in the atmosphere.
03:05And that's going to bring us a shot of snow.
03:08The way this plays out is a little bit different between the GFS and the European model.
03:13So you can see some snow in the area of Virginia in the GFS.
03:17The GFS did well last weekend, that's for sure.
03:21Now, that's just one sample size, one storm.
03:24But here, it's more aggressive than the European.
03:26The European, a little timid with this.
03:29And I showed you how fragmented the vorticity was and how weak this trough is in the European.
03:35The GFS is not that strong either, but there's a little bit more moisture for the GFS to work with.
03:40And this would bring us snow yet again to a relatively southern location with some ice into parts of North
03:47Carolina and Kentucky.
03:48But again, Richmond, Virginia, yet again, another round of snow here this winter on Monday.
03:55With the GFS, it's heavier.
03:57With the European, we're reminded to keep our expectations in check here.
04:01If this disturbance is not quite as cohesive as in the GFS and the European, you can see a little
04:07bit of freezing rain, freezing drizzle.
04:09Here's the GFS AI, another opinion.
04:12Pretty decent little swath of precipitation with some snow and some ice.
04:15Here's the European AI.
04:18This one has a little bit more of a robust signature than the traditional European.
04:23And it's a little farther north, but this would bring us some snow on Monday to Philadelphia.
04:28This is a little more aligned with the way things appeared maybe 24 hours ago in the modeling.
04:34Modeling has trended a little farther south, but the European AI says maybe the trend shouldn't be as far south
04:40as some other models are shifting today.
04:42Today, UK Met, largely, the first wave just gets eaten up.
04:47It's a non-event.
04:48Here it comes, and it just evaporates.
04:52I'm trying to stick to the UK Met.
04:54Here it is.
04:55The first wave, there it is on Sunday night over areas around St. Louis.
05:01And take a look at how this evolves.
05:03It's eastbound, eastbound, eastbound, and it just evaporates.
05:06And it's the second wave that follows, so very little input from that one for the east coast.
05:11And the Canadian, another opinion, pretty well aligned, kind of like the model consensus here with snow for D.C.
05:16and a little bit of rain to the south.
05:18So I kind of like the way the Canadian looks because it is a relatively good mean forecast, relatively average
05:24of the others.
05:25Sometimes the consensus can win out.
05:28So let's go to the models here, or let's go away from the models briefly.
05:31The first wave, here we are, our first forecast here from AccuWeather for the first wave.
05:35We have three to six inches of snow northern parts of Missouri into Indianapolis.
05:40And again, into Monday morning, a little bit of snow, but not a whole lot east of the mountains.
05:46Our depiction of that, Sunday, Sunday night, Kansas City to St. Louis, Louisville, I-64 and I-70.
05:52We've had some issues with some ice potential.
05:53And Monday, we're still holding to the potential for some accumulating snow.
05:57Pittsburgh to Philly, it's a little more likely in D.C. given the trend.
06:01And we've got some concerns about ice in Richmond.
06:04Farther south, likely to be rain in Raleigh.
06:06We need to keep an eye on that.
06:08Now, quick look at what goes on beyond that.
06:11Into Tuesday, look at this, the next wave, it pulls farther north.
06:14We see a transition from snow to ice into many areas here across Philadelphia to New York City and then
06:21rain.
06:22Rain, European, similar trend.
06:24And then rain, mixed to rain.
06:26European AI, similar trend, a warming trend.
06:29Certainly the same signature with the UK meant that one does carry the storm system east of the mountains.
06:34And the Canadian also.
06:35So there's strong consensus that, as I go back to end on our final graphic here,
06:40the second wave is going to come in warmer.
06:43And if you are nearer north of the PA Turnpike, look for snow to ice over to rain for Tuesday.
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