00:00Here on the forecast feed, we have a lot to track. We're talking about potential for significant
00:05East Coast snow. Key word there is potential. It's all in the details and we have two chunks
00:12of energy. If they're in phase with one another, we may be dealing with a pretty explosive storm.
00:18Now, the consensus is that they may not be fully in phase and the storm track may be just a
00:23little
00:24farther south, a little farther offshore, but there's still, again, some model support and
00:29there's potential for some high-end snow potential. So we need to keep an eye on what's going on out
00:35there. First off, let's take you to a big picture, kind of a contrast here. And there are potential
00:41storm scenarios here that would bring us either heavy snow for the big cities or not much snow for
00:49the big cities, still a few inches possible, and potential for some significant snow to be found
00:55along the immediate coastline. And we're also looking at pretty decent snow, plowable snow in the
01:01interior as well. But the high-end potential is not present for most of the interior Northeast.
01:06So here's the big dilemma. If strengthening is delayed and if the two disturbances are a little
01:12bit out of sync and if the storm track is a little farther south and southeast, we'd be dealing with
01:17this scenario that brings us far less impactful snow. If it is a storm that tracks closer to the
01:24coast, there's this 40-20 reference point, 40 north, 40-70, I should say, 40 degrees north latitude,
01:3270 degrees west longitude. If the storm hugs the coast close enough that it passes northwest to that
01:37benchmark, then the big cities of the Northeast would be in play. Model consensus and our forecast
01:42intel suggests it's a little more likely to be barely southeast to that point. So this is what
01:47we are up against here. We are looking at a disturbance. I'm going to kind of first go to the,
01:53this is the high-end potential, the GFS, a pretty monstrous storm. And it would be a high-end scenario
01:59here Sunday night and Monday, Sunday and Monday, with significant snow for the coast. And you can see
02:04upstairs about 20,000 feet up, 500 millibars. We're looking at a rapidly strengthening cyclone.
02:10And you can see that here, the center, not that far east of maybe Virginia Beach or areas a little
02:17northeast there, maybe closer to Ocean City, Maryland. I'm going to go from that perspective
02:22to the European. Very different, farther south, not even offshore yet, and weaker. And the trajectory
02:29through which this would reach the coast would take the center of lowest pressure at 20,000 feet,
02:34no farther south than the Virginia-North Carolina line. With the European,
02:39you can see it digs all the way down into North Carolina and moves offshore near Cape Hatteras.
02:44There are some other details that are different. Here's the NAM. And again, the NAM
02:47doesn't really show much of a storm because it has one disturbance way offshore by the time
02:52the interior low even gets close to the coast. And that's a nothing burger there.
02:57So a few things to keep in mind.
03:01One is where is the ridge of high pressure in the western U.S. And it's set up a little
03:08east of where
03:09one might prefer to see it if they're looking for a big east coast storm in the European and in
03:15the
03:15GFS. Now, GFS is a little farther west, but the ridge axis in the west here with the GFS around
03:21Monday morning when it would be gangbuster snow for the east coast if we saw the big scenario there,
03:27maybe Long Island. You can see this area of high pressure. The ridge axis is right over western
03:33Wyoming. Typically, Boise is where you want to see that if this were to be the optimal track for
03:39big east coast snow. I'm going to compare that to the same time frame in the European. The European
03:44is even a little farther east for the ridge axis. It's east of Boise. Boise is out this way. So
03:49it's not
03:50far off, but it is half a state east and half a state. The western states are big. Half a
03:55state
03:55east is a big difference when it comes to every dozen miles mattering between big snow potential
04:00or it being an offshore snow event. And let's take a look at one other thing I wanted to point
04:05out.
04:06With the GFS here, we have two disturbances that are in phase with one another. There is,
04:11and I want to track this back, but you can see we have the southern branch feature and the northern
04:18branch feature and watch they consolidate and they're in phase with one another. They meet up
04:22and they work together to produce this negatively tilted trough. With the European, there's a
04:29separation. Look at the southern branch feature out in advance of the northern branch feature.
04:34And they, again, are separated. You can even see there's a trough. There's a trough and a little
04:39baby ridge of high pressure here. Maybe not high pressure, but higher pressure, just signifying
04:45that they're out of phase. And the one feature outruns the other one, leading to a weaker and
04:51southern scenario as opposed to a more consolidated northern scenario. So there's a big difference here
04:55between the European and the GFS. Let's compare a few different models here and really get into
05:00the details. Now, the GFS here, that's a monstrous storm, a big one there for the east coast. That's
05:05the high-end potential. It's been persistent with it being a very strong storm. Sunday at 7 p.m.,
05:09988 low, just east of Ocean City, Maryland. Nothing in the NAM. Nothing in the NAM. The one
05:16feature is just way out to sea, and that's it. In the European, it's an interesting scenario in that
05:22we see some snow that's light to moderate for a time, but it's certainly not a bang versus bust
05:27potential. It's more of a bust for the high-end snow potential. But there's the interior disturbance
05:32that would produce some snow into the interior. And the plows would be out, but it might be two to
05:36four
05:37inches, one to three, as opposed to way more than that. The Canadian model. This one, it's trending
05:43offshore. It's trending offshore. You'll notice there are also temperature issues, and that's a
05:48very valid thing with many of these models here along I-95. It's a rain-snow mix there. Here's
05:53the UK Met. It's going to bring snow to South Jersey and Delaware. It's a little colder, but it's also
05:58offshore more. And here's the GFS AI. Interestingly, as much of a high-end scenario as the traditional
06:04GFS is, the GFS AI is trending a little far, or it's been farther east. And the European AI,
06:09it's largely a miss for even New York City there and way out to sea. So a few different scenarios,
06:15model comparisons. The GFS, significant snow, some double-digit snow out there. Now here's the
06:20European. And this brings some decent snow into the interior with the interior low, but not with,
06:26and by the way, that would include, this would include the previous, the Friday-Saturday storm.
06:29So subtract that out. But we'd see several inches down near Lancaster if that were to come out
06:34as the main solution. So here's our official forecast at this point. It is early. It is
06:39early. We may need to change this up or down. We're forecasting one to three inches of snow in DC,
06:44Baltimore, and Philly, and more than that, south of Boston. That's your forecast feed.
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