Weekend weather 25/09/2025 - Weekend rain in between highs - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the weekend 25/09/2025. After a week of high pressure - and with another high expected next week - this weekend is less straightforward as a slow-moving front arrives. Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office weekend weather forecast.

00:03Following high pressure and several days of fine weather through this week, the weekend's

00:08forecast for the UK is not looking quite as straightforward and there are a number of reasons

00:14for that.

00:15Now, early Friday we've still got high pressure across the UK, albeit moving east, but at

00:20the same time a hurricane is heading straight for the Azores, likely to bring serious impacts

00:26from wind and from large waves.

00:28This category one hurricane then, shortly after it hits the Azores, transitions into

00:33an X hurricane, a typical mid-latitude low, heading for Iberia as a decaying system.

00:41It's not going to push into the UK or come anywhere close, but it will indirectly impact

00:46our weather because we've got the weather front tied up to the north of that and there's

00:51a subtle interplay between that X hurricane, the front moving into the west of the UK and

00:56the high pressure to the east and more details on that in just a moment.

00:59For the start of Saturday we've still got the influence from high pressure in the east

01:03of the country with sunny spells from the word go, an increasing breeze however.

01:07That breeze is coming from the south so it's not as chilly first thing on Saturday as it

01:12has been for various mornings this week.

01:14But it is a wet start for Western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

01:16That rain pushes into the rest of Scotland, into parts of Western England and Wales.

01:20Patchy rain towards the south, persistence up towards the north-west, 30 to 50 millimetres

01:24in places.

01:25Feeling unpleasant here, but a mild afternoon in the south and south-east, 18 or 19 Celsius.

01:33Now at this stage the front's slowing down and the reason for that is because of high

01:36pressures over Scandinavia.

01:38This is the high we've had over the UK through the week, it's moving its way eastwards and

01:42it's really establishing itself by Saturday across Scandinavia.

01:45And that acts as a big boulder in a stream effectively splitting the jet stream in two and causing

01:52the jet stream out to the west of the UK as it approaches to dip.

01:56It dives south because it can't go across the UK, it must dive south.

02:01And as that dives south we've got this ex-hurricane also tugging on the jet stream and it's this chaotic

02:07interaction between an ex-hurricane, high pressure to the east and the jet stream diving south over

02:12the UK that causes some uncertainty as we go into Sunday and the main uncertainty for the

02:16UK itself is how much the jet stream dives south and it could be tugged further south

02:21by the ex-hurricane and by that dominant high to the east.

02:24And if it is, then that front will slow down even further, it could become more active as

02:30well as it crosses the south and the east of the UK.

02:33There are a minority of computer model simulations in which an area of low pressure forms across

02:37the east and the south of the UK causing more widespread and heavy rain across the south

02:43and the east of the country.

02:44But that's a minority of simulations when we run the computer model dozens of times.

02:50The majority and the most likely scenario is for the rain band to be slowly and erratically

02:54clearing the east of England.

02:55Still some heavy bursts there across East Anglia during Sunday afternoon.

02:59But brighter spells for many other places, albeit with a few showers for Scotland, Northern

03:03Ireland, Western England and Wales.

03:05This is the most likely temperatures up to the mid to high teens fairly widely.

03:10But we need to be mindful of the fact that that front could persist for longer, bringing

03:14a more widespread wet day in the south and the east and lower temperatures as a result.

03:19Now bizarrely, as we go into next week, we've got higher confidence for the weather compared

03:23with Sunday.

03:24And that's because high pressure looks very likely to move back in again, particularly

03:27across the south, still allowing some fronts to move into the north and northwest of Scotland

03:31from time to time.

03:32But with that high pressure re-establishing itself for the final couple of days of September,

03:39well it's certainly a case of a month of two halves after a very unsettled first half of

03:44September, the second half looking much drier and brighter, albeit with that blip this weekend

03:51where we've got a slow moving front crossing the country.

Weekend weather 25/09/2025 - Weekend rain in between highs

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