- 5 months ago
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00:00Major League Baseball, short card today, but still Major League Baseball giving us, what, three, six, seven total games.
00:06First game's going to start today, 105, followed by 307, and then the nightcap here.
00:10Do you know what I actually woke up this morning, Joe, and was saying, you know what, I'm going to do a video here,
00:14as I do each and every morning, and pump out like, hey, we got a doubleheader probably on Thursday in football in the NFL and Major League Baseball.
00:20I was actually stunned to see we didn't have any preseason football tonight.
00:25Yeah, I thought there was a game here tonight as well, Donnie, but no.
00:28I really did, yeah, but it's, no, we kick everything off again tomorrow, heading into the weekend for week two,
00:35with still a lot of question marks with teams, Donnie, and starters and whatnot here.
00:42I'm going to be real interested to see, including the Bears here, who are swearing they're playing all the starters this week.
00:50Swear on it, cross your fingers, and away you go.
00:53Now, by the way, Major League Baseball, Joe and Donnie's picks yesterday on Bye Bye Bye Red Hot.
00:57I would have liked to have seen a tweet out there to let the people know, because I always like to, like, late at night, like, when we hit our plays, Joe,
01:02you like to slap that retweet, like, hey, man, we'll be back out of tomorrow.
01:04So, hopefully we get that capped out there today, but more importantly, win another game for the people as we did yesterday.
01:10But let's get down this list today.
01:11We're going to start at 3 o'clock in the afternoon.
01:139-11, 9-12, it's the Chicago Cubs and the Toronto Blue Jays.
01:17Boyd's on the mound, the lefty here for the Cubs, going up against Max Scherzer, the right-handed pitcher here for the Toronto Blue Jays.
01:23This total opened up at 8-1⁄2, Joe, still sitting at 8-1⁄2 across the board.
01:26A favorite, though, of around a minus-125 or so overnight to Chicago has taken sort of a step back.
01:32We're in that more pick-em range, minus-110s, minus-106, minus-115s either way.
01:37Boyd has some really good statistics.
01:39Scherzer not the Scherzer of old.
01:41What do we see today?
01:42Basically a coin toss between the Cubbies and also the Blue Jays.
01:46You know, I saw this line overnight, Donnie, and I took the under at 8-1⁄2, and I think you can still find 8-1⁄2s here because, I mean, why are we going to think we're going to get a big run-producing game with these two guys on the mound?
02:04I mean, say what you want about Scherzer here, but he has actually gotten better with every start over the last month here.
02:13So, I think he's holding a 2.25 ERA in his two starts already in the month of August.
02:20We know what Boyd has done.
02:22He continues to be just absolutely lights out here.
02:26So, to me, this feels much more like a pretty good pitcher's battle.
02:318-1⁄2, a little too high for me.
02:33I think less runs are coming in this game.
02:37By the way, Boyd has been sensational.
02:38Sometimes, Joe, we talk about pitchers, and we'll get to him just a little bit, like Brad Lord.
02:42Like, oh, I got stinks for Washington.
02:43No, he really doesn't.
02:44Like, Matthew Boyd, his last 60 days, Joe, how about a 181 batting average against?
02:50A whip that's under 1 at a .82.
02:52A batting average of balls in play at a .222.
02:55An XFIP minus of 86, which is well below 100.
02:58An ERA of 1.92.
03:01And an XFIP number at 3.52.
03:03Like, it's one of those guys that you don't really pay attention to, but every time he's on the mound,
03:07he's giving you a legitimate chance to win.
03:09Say what you want now.
03:10You need every day with a legitimate chance to win.
03:13When the Brewers aren't playing and you're playing, you better win and pick up that half game.
03:16If not, where the Brewers don't even play and you lose a half game that day because you lost, that can't happen.
03:21But let's get to Minnesota and Detroit yesterday.
03:23One of my few letdowns on the card was the Detroit Tigers scoring only one run yesterday,
03:28but they did get the victory today back at it against Minnesota.
03:32Scooble and Ober.
03:34Scooble, one of the best pitchers in baseball.
03:35Maybe the Cy Young of the American League.
03:37This is a heavy favorite, though, Joe.
03:39Minus 210s overnight, they're starting to increase.
03:41Minus 210s, minus 215s, minus 220s in the marketplace.
03:45But a total of 7.5, it's low.
03:47Ober hurt me last time.
03:48I've tried to fade him.
03:49He's not a good pitcher.
03:51Scooble is a good pitcher.
03:52Are we getting some offense today, or is this one going to also stay under that 7.5?
03:55Yeah, I see.
03:57I don't understand this line because usually when Scooble goes up against less than 500 teams,
04:03Donnie, he's a $3 favorite, except for the fact that he got lit up like a Christmas tree
04:08last time out.
04:09And maybe we've kind of backed off the Tigers bandwagon with Tariq Scooble.
04:15Maybe he's showing a little bit of signs of slowing down here.
04:19So, listen, Ober has gotten better because he's still only a couple of starts.
04:25From coming off the IL here, I'm kind of with you.
04:29I don't think we're getting a ton of runs here.
04:31We did see a little over money overnight, but I'm with you.
04:35I think less is the way to go here under for me.
04:39Yeah, really disappointing sometimes.
04:40We're trying to be like, hey, how'd the guy do it?
04:41Didn't really do too much in the minors.
04:43But you talk about that last start before he went on the IL, five and two thirds, seven
04:46earnings.
04:47We're talking about Ober.
04:48And then you take a look and say, okay, he came back, five innings, four earned runs.
04:51Like, oh, he's bad.
04:52And then he goes up against Kansas City, who's a good looking lineup.
04:54Six innings pitch, one earned run.
04:56Like, okay, I'm back in Major League Baseball.
04:58Yesterday, one to nothing game against the Chicago White Sox here.
05:01So, Minnesota played late last night.
05:03You know their bats are going to be tired with that relay back from New York City up to Minnesota
05:08and playing a baseball game.
05:09So, maybe the bats are a little bit slow.
05:10We don't see eight runs in this game.
05:12But a heavy favorite for the Detroit Tigers as we continue to handicap Seattle and Baltimore.
05:17You're on deck.
05:18Let's go.
05:20More baseball in the 30s.
05:21That's what we do on the early line.
05:23It's Donnie Wright said it's Joe Ranieri.
05:24And it's the way to get down.
05:25And we start at 105 Eastern.
05:28Baltimore is the place to be.
05:29The Seattle Mariners looking to try to take down the Houston Astros out there in the AL West.
05:33907-080, 908 on the rotation.
05:35Evans versus Sugano.
05:37Line opened up overnight at 10.
05:39There are a few nine and a half, but the majority of the books now double digits at 10.
05:43And I agree with that.
05:44Side opened up at minus 132 overnight.
05:46You still see it.
05:47Not a lot of movement here.
05:48125s, 130s, and minus 132 still in the marketplace.
05:52But runs are expected today, Joe.
05:53Two underperforming pitchers in a good hitting environment.
05:56Do we see runs in this game this afternoon?
05:58And also, does Seattle continue their winning ways here to try to track down those Astros?
06:04Well, I mean, they got caught, right?
06:06At least once in this series here.
06:09And it's a getaway day, if I'm not mistaken, right?
06:12So we got a 1 o'clock game early.
06:15And then everyone has got to go and hop on a plane and leave here.
06:20I don't particularly like either guy.
06:23Sugano tends to give up the fly balls, which at Camden could be a problem here today.
06:30And Logan Evans has had his moments here, though, Donnie.
06:34I'm actually looking at the other side here.
06:36I think both these teams are going to look to hurry up and get it done.
06:39I don't trust the Orioles' bats.
06:42And I think all the heavy lifting, if we're getting it over, has to be done by Seattle.
06:47But I'm leaning towards the under in this one here today.
06:5187 degrees at first pitch.
06:53Light wind blowing in about 5 miles per hour from center field.
06:55Logan Evans, for me, on the card.
06:57A 121 XFIP minus, which isn't very good over the past 60 days.
07:00A 5.50 ERA and a 5.01 XFIP number.
07:04Sugano, even worse, Joe.
07:06A 122 XFIP minus, a 5.91 ERA and a 5.08 XFIP number.
07:11I'm the opposite of this one.
07:12Because sometimes you're right about this.
07:14Getaway days are a little bit different.
07:16Middle of the afternoon baseball games are a little bit different.
07:18Like, if you asked me, Don, if you had any choice to make here, what time would you start a baseball game?
07:237.05 Eastern, that's what they're used to.
07:25Their entire day, lifting, eating, everything culminates at night, as opposed to, let me pack my bags.
07:30We're out of here as soon as this game is over.
07:32It's sunny.
07:33It's really hot.
07:34I can't pick up the baseball that I'm used to picking up because it's sunny in center field.
07:38We get all that.
07:38But I look at the lineup.
07:39You're right.
07:39It's a decent lineup for the Baltimore Orioles today.
07:42But more importantly, Seattle's lineup does have some pop.
07:44Rosarana, Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Jorge Polanco, all with really good ISO power numbers and certainly weighted on base percentages that should factor in this.
07:53And Sugano's not a good pitcher.
07:55So I'm with you.
07:55The heavy lifting probably is going to be done by the Seattle Mariners for me as well, Joe.
08:00Yeah.
08:01And the other problem that I have here, though, and they could, listen, they could score 10 runs by themselves here, Seattle.
08:08We know they're capable.
08:09But outside of yesterday, the Orioles didn't score in the first 15 innings of this series, and somehow they managed to look off a 4-3 win yesterday.
08:19So the bats are just not there.
08:21They're 3-9 over their last 12 games here.
08:25I mean, the O's offensively, you just can't trust them.
08:29And as bad as Logan Evans has been, Donnie, they have won Seattle his last couple of starts here.
08:34So the runs are going to have to come from Seattle in this one for sure.
08:39I think we're getting runs in this one again.
08:41If you watched last night, you know, they had a rain delay about an hour, hour and a half between both of the New York teams, the Yankees and the Mets.
08:46But the Mets, they had fireworks early.
08:48The Mets played in six runs in the first two innings, only to see the fourth inning.
08:51That erased with nine runs in the top of the inning by the Atlanta Braves, and they went to an easy victory.
08:56Bryce Elders on the mound going to his Kodai Senga.
08:58Kodai Senga is just a name at this point.
09:00That's all he is.
09:00Hey, remember when Senga was good?
09:02Yeah, it seems like a long time ago because he's not good.
09:04How about his last 60 days, a 131 XFIT minus, a 531 ERA, a 5.41 XFIT number.
09:10Bryce Elder, not much better either, Joe.
09:13A 119 ERA or XFIT minus, a 869 ERA, and then also close to a 5 XFIT number.
09:21This price point in this game is eight and a half, some nine starting to creep in, which I agree with, but a monster favorite for the Mets.
09:27I don't, paying that much money for Senga who's struggling at minus 200 and the Mets are as well?
09:32Come on, that's not me.
09:34Ain't going to be me.
09:36No, it can't be.
09:38I mean, the only thing I'd be willing to bet here is we got a pretty good chance of getting some runs early in this game.
09:46So I think if I'm going to do anything, I'm looking at the Mets team total over in the first five.
09:53I think it's two and a half, Donnie.
09:54I think the Mets can get three runs in the first five innings.
09:58He's probably still very annoyed with the outcome yesterday, but I think that the bats have been alive.
10:04They just unfortunately can't stop Atlanta from scoring.
10:07So I like the Mets team total over in the first five here.
10:10Yeah, maybe it was yesterday.
10:13The issue was like the Polar Bear was supposed to get honored before that game for passing Darryl Strauber in the all-time home runs leaders list for the New York Mets.
10:21It got postponed to today.
10:22So maybe they just had enough energy for the first two innings because they played at three in the first yesterday and three in the second.
10:27None the rest of the way and took the loss, even though the Phillies took a loss as well.
10:31They weren't able to capitalize on that.
10:32Talking about the Philadelphia Phillies, they're going to have a nice little divisional game today.
10:36The Phillies are going to take on the Washington Nationals from Washington, a 645 start, 901, 902 on the rotation.
10:41Luzardo, the lefty, is going to go up against Brad Lord, the right-handed pitcher.
10:45Eight and a halves is the total across the board, a monster favorite for the Phillies.
10:49Once again, though, the Phillies were playing good baseball.
10:51You're going to lose games on the road.
10:53They lost the last two to the Reds, but they just couldn't hit the baseball in all three of those games against the Cincinnati Reds.
10:57Now favorite as a monster two-to-one price or a $2 price favorite.
11:02Luzardo's been so hit and miss, really good or really bad.
11:05It's almost no in-between.
11:07Lord, he's actually been really good.
11:09Did you know his last 60 days in baseball, 287 ERA?
11:12How about his last 60 days in 83 XFIP minus, an XFIP of 3.39?
11:17Phillies bats, man.
11:17Are they going to wake up today against Lord?
11:19He's been good.
11:20The problem is Washington can't hit lefties.
11:24They are awful against left-handed pitching here.
11:28And they have not been very good at home hitting the ball.
11:32So while the Phillies have been slumping a little bit, this is not a great split for the Washington Nationals.
11:40So if I'm taking a shot here, I'm probably taking a shot with maybe an under in the first five, thinking, you know, Phillies, again, played yesterday.
11:48Nats at home, can't hit lefties.
11:51I don't know where the runs are coming from early in this one.
11:55I'd be willing to back an under in the first five.
11:57Yeah, we'll see.
11:59The Phillies have been notorious for slow starts here on this road trip the past couple games.
12:02And maybe you'll see that again tonight when they take on the Washington Nationals.
12:06Let's take a look at Miami and Cleveland.
12:07Miami scored two touchdowns yesterday, Joe, but missed an extra point, but still scored 13 times against the Guardians in a 13-4 victory.
12:14Cabrera, the left, he'll be on the mound, going up against Tanner Bybee, the right-handed pitcher.
12:18A 640 start tonight.
12:19Roughly a pick-em.
12:20Minus 120s, minus 125s in the marketplace here.
12:23A 7.5 total.
12:23So, unintriguing game, if I can use that word today, between Miami and Cleveland.
12:27Any angles for you early here, Joe?
12:30Yeah, I mean, to me it would be.
12:32I didn't like the spot yesterday for the Guardians.
12:36And sure enough, I mean, Yuri Perez versus Gavin Williams.
12:40It was going to be all of the Guardians, you know, having a hard time hitting Yuri Perez.
12:47And they certainly did.
12:48They didn't have a problem the Marlins hitting Gavin Williams.
12:52But Tanner Bybee has been much better at home.
12:56He loves this park here.
12:57The Guardians are still battling to try and catch Detroit.
13:01I do.
13:01I think this is a good bounce-back spot here at a pretty good price with a pretty good pitcher at home.
13:08So, yeah, I'm going to back the Guardians here in this one.
13:12How about this next game?
13:13We're going to have 90-degree temperatures in Colorado.
13:15It's Arizona and Colorado.
13:16Rodriguez, the lefty who used to be a good pitcher.
13:18Not anymore.
13:20Blalock just looking to get innings for the Rockies.
13:22There's no surprise that this line opened up at 12 and a half overnight.
13:26Now, there has been some buying back to 12 because most people are like, yeah, I'll push that to 13, which means it would take 14 runs.
13:32Did a team total, or excuse me, a side total.
13:34A heavy favor for Arizona.
13:36A crazy number.
13:37The one thing that we've seen, Joe, when Colorado's been home, let's just say, for the past month, it's like a pinball machine.
13:42Who's taking under?
13:43It's 12.
13:44I don't want to take under.
13:45No, and when you have that kind of number in that situation, I'd be willing to look at the run line for Arizona here.
13:53I think they'll be able.
13:56They've been hitting much, much better here at late.
13:59They get to Colorado.
14:00They've got a ton of success there.
14:02I'll lay the run and a half here with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
14:05Both these pitchers last 60 days, 119 and 117 XFIP minus, respectively, here, between both of them.
14:13ERA's close to five.
14:14XFIP number's close to five.
14:15Like, you might have a powder keg out there in Colorado.
14:18What else do they have to play for here?
14:20Let's get some swings on the bat.
14:21By the way, on a day-to-day basis, the Rockies lineup still looks good, man.
14:24The numbers are there, even if Warming Bernabeu is going to be the future player they have.
14:28How about that name?
14:28Your name is Warming, Joe.
14:30That's fantastic for living in the Colorado Rockies at this point, just the way it is in Colorado.
14:34Feeling good about today?
14:36The vibes are high.
14:37Oh, absolutely, they are.
14:39And the early line always provides that.
14:41Here at Sonny Wright, it's Joe Renier.
14:42Just had Cam Stewart.
14:43Always a lot of fun.
14:44Always a lot of energy here.
14:45Make sure you just check out Cam around the network here.
14:47He's all over the place, popping in and out.
14:49We've got some big doings today.
14:51Major League Baseball starts in the afternoon.
14:52Tomorrow, Joe, the preseason action kicks off a huge slate on Saturday.
14:57And then we even have a Sunday night NFL preseason football game, which they're going to unleash Caleb Williams.
15:03And then next week, it's, you know, sometimes it's like, hey, football Friday.
15:07Like tomorrow, yes, it's a football Friday because you have the preseason.
15:10But next week's Friday, it truly is a football Friday.
15:14Like college football is there.
15:15Then week one of college football.
15:17Then week one of the NFL.
15:18And every Friday, like these shows that we do, Joe, two hours, like in the summertime, like we're going to keep you entertained.
15:24We're going to find those interesting topics.
15:26We're going to be at a point soon, Joe, where it's like we have way too many topics, which is such a cool thing.
15:31I love it.
15:33Yeah, I'm all for it, Donnie, because there is nothing more exciting than betting second halves in college football.
15:40So the in-game betting opportunities are some of my favorite during the year.
15:46So looking very forward to getting football back in our lives.
15:50Oh, it's going to be fantastic stuff as we await for that to happen.
15:53And again, you have preseason games, more starters going to play.
15:56Heck, maybe even Josh Allen throws his hat in the ring.
15:58Also, Andy Reid, though, was saying yesterday he's not sure if Patrick Mahomes is going to play in week two of the preseason, maybe shutting that down.
16:04But here's a question for us, too, right, Joe?
16:07Next week, like real football games, not the preseason.
16:10Real football games in college are next Saturday.
16:12I want to ask you this question.
16:14And I'll give you a plus 100 price either way.
16:17Micah Parsons is signed, sealed, and delivered before the college football slate kicks off next Saturday.
16:25No, no, no.
16:27I don't think he is getting signed, Donnie.
16:30I don't think that's going to rectify itself until the week of maybe a couple of days prior to the Cowboys kicking off the season against your Eagles.
16:40Absolutely craziness.
16:41But you know what we got to do now?
16:42Let's get the people what they want.
16:43It's winning picks.
16:44It's what we do.
16:45It's bye, bye, bye.
16:50Bye, bye, bye.
16:51Oh, man.
16:54How much is Joe Lisi getting paid for that extra little voiceover right there?
16:58Maybe it's good vibes for the day coming off a sweep yesterday.
17:01Oh, bye, bye, bye, Joe.
17:02Where are we going tonight?
17:02Where are we winning money?
17:03Come on now.
17:04Well, we told you last night, Tampa early was probably a good bet in that first five.
17:11And they handled business against the Athletics.
17:13I am going to turn to a pretty important game coming up tonight with the Guardians at home taking on the Miami Marlins.
17:22Now, listen, it was not good for the Guardians last night.
17:26They kind of got embarrassed and they had a backup catcher in Austin Hedges pitching the ninth inning.
17:32That tells you everything that you need to know.
17:34But the reality is with the Yankees losing, the Guardians now are just one game behind them for that final wild card spot.
17:42They've got Tanner Bybee on the mound.
17:44He has been all over the place this year, especially on the road.
17:48But at home, he has been much better.
17:51And they need him to show up and show out here for this game.
17:56I mean, he just signed a five-year, $48 million contract.
18:00He has got to be the guy that stops this and gets it going.
18:04I think the bats come alive against Cabrera.
18:06I think the Guardians, at this price, are a pretty good bet here to get back on track and put the pressure on the Yankees.
18:15The Guardians looking to make a playoff run.
18:17That's pretty incredible as we talk about it now.
18:19But for me, I'm going to go back up to flushing.
18:21And yesterday, it was flushing.
18:23It was rain all across.
18:24There were three storms that hit Citi Field yesterday.
18:27One was the rain itself.
18:28Two was the New York Mets in the first two innings.
18:30Then another storm hit for nine runs in the fourth inning by the Atlanta Braves.
18:34We're sitting at an eight-and-a-half today, and I understand the ebbs and flows of Major League Baseball.
18:39Oh, my goodness.
18:39How'd that game end up 2-1?
18:41Yes, it could happen.
18:42Kodai Senga, not a good pitcher right now.
18:44Bryce Elder, not a good pitcher right now.
18:46Both of these lineups scoring all those runs yesterday, and I can't get three runs out of a team, five runs out of a team here.
18:51Stop the madness over, over, over Atlanta Braves and the New York Metropolitans.
18:57I'm going back to Queens, and I'm going back to win money.
19:00Yesterday, you know what my bye-bye-bye was?
19:02Yeah, it was the Mets over four-and-a-half.
19:04Cash it tonight, over eight-and-a-half.
19:05Let's cash that as well.
19:07I love it.
19:08We also gave the Brewers' team total over yesterday at four-and-a-half, and they got that in one inning.
19:14And I wouldn't be shocked, Donnie.
19:17I would look at the Mets' team total in the first five.
19:20They are going to get the Bryce Elder early and often in this one.
19:24F
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