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00:00Major League Baseball on a Monday. Get ready, Joe. In about a month, we have full NFL slates on the weekends and Monday night football.
00:06Are people going to be as energized for a Major League Baseball slate? Maybe not necessarily, but right now, it seems like to me the only game in town.
00:13Well, there's the WNBA. They're having some fun out here as we wait for Kaitlin Clark to get back.
00:16We've got some big, big games this weekend, or this week I should talk about, and includes that central division where teams looking up at the Milwaukee Brewers.
00:25There's two of them right now. It's the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs.
00:28Lodolo, the lefty, will be on the mound today, taking on Michael Sirocco, the right-handed pitcher for the Cubs.
00:339.05, 9.06 on the rotation, an 8.05 start. A heavy favorite for the Cubs overnight, Joe.
00:38Minus 155s. They're gone. Minus 138s, minus 142s, minus 140s in the sports landscape right now, and a total that's listed at 7.5.
00:47The Cubbies looking to try to track down the Brewers. The Reds trying to hang on and maybe make the playoffs here.
00:54Big game tonight.
00:56Yeah, and it's an unfortunate situation what happened at Bristol Motor Speedway because yesterday was supposed to be an off day for both the Reds and the Atlanta Braves.
01:07And instead, they had to stay there and continue to play that game.
01:11And now, the Braves and Cincinnati have to, you know, no rest, rolling right into new series here.
01:19And the Reds are going to take on a Cubs team.
01:22And Lodolo has been fantastic. Don't get me wrong.
01:25But I don't like the spot here for the Reds, and I don't like the spot and the matchup for Lodolo.
01:32The Cubs have actually hit lefties pretty well this season here, and with the lineup intact, it's kind of hard for me not to look towards the Cubs getting it done because the Reds, that's, I don't like the fact that they didn't get that day off.
01:49I think the situation calls for the Cubs at home.
01:52Look, I do agree that that line has gotten cheaper here from the one of 55s overnight, let's call it a minus 140 price.
01:57But you still also, like you said exactly, they hit the nail on the head.
02:01In Major League Baseball, it's not really about the team itself most of the time.
02:03It's really the pitcher that's on the mound.
02:05Say, okay, I'm going to bet that pitcher, and we'll see if he can, you know, get some hits for him and back him up.
02:08But the fact that Lodolo, you know, coming into this game is that much still of an underdog to Michael Soroka, that truly sends up that flag.
02:16Oh, it's easy to take the Reds.
02:17Boy, I'll take that plus 125 price.
02:19Easy, file it away.
02:20I'm like, I wonder why that is a minus 125 price.
02:22Because you're right.
02:23You had that exhausting weekend for them, which was a late Saturday night.
02:26You had to stay in town an extra night.
02:28Who knows what the accommodations were that they had.
02:30Then you had to get out of town.
02:31You're going to play the Cubs, who, again, this game is on the road.
02:33The Cubs were at home, so they don't have to go anywhere staying in their beds at the same time.
02:37So we'll see how that one plays out today.
02:38But Lodolo is the better pitcher.
02:40Let's head out to the West Coast here.
02:4110-10 start tonight, Joe.
02:429-0-9, 9-10 on the rotation.
02:44It's St. Louis and Los Angeles.
02:46That's the Dodgers.
02:47It's Sonny Gray versus Tyler Glass.
02:49Now, heavy favorite overnight.
02:50Minus 170s or so.
02:52Those are gone.
02:52Much higher price points right now.
02:54Minus 188s.
02:55Minus 194s.
02:56Minus 195s.
02:57And a total between 8-8.5 on where you're shopping at tonight.
03:01So taking a look at this game.
03:03Hey, it's going to take place.
03:05Gray?
03:06Maybe?
03:06Glass now?
03:07Who we got?
03:08Yeah, it's not a great situation for St. Louis, who is pretty much punted on the season at this point
03:16because they're playing for the future.
03:19I mean, who are we kidding?
03:20But Glass now, now, and L.A.
03:24Nice shutout yesterday in a bounce-back spot against Tampa.
03:27It's kind of hard, Donnie.
03:28You've got these teams on the West Coast coming back home for a game.
03:33You know, their first game.
03:35Don't have a day off.
03:36So there's been a lot of travel here for the Dodgers.
03:39Usually, I like to fade those teams that first game back off a long road trip.
03:44But in this spot, Sonny Gray can't be trusted on the road.
03:48He's a much better picture at Bush Stadium here.
03:51I think the Dodgers, who have been much better at home than on the road, yeah, I mean, I'm not a big believer in laying a run and a half with a home team that probably will only get eight at-bats.
04:03But I think the Dodgers will get the best of the Carvels in this one in a big way.
04:09Glass now fighting back from off the I.O.
04:11He's got a couple starts under his belt.
04:12His first start back against Milwaukee, five innings pitch, one earned run.
04:15Excuse me, no earned runs was very good in five strikeouts.
04:18The following time, he took on Milwaukee again.
04:20Six innings pitch, one earned run, and six strikeouts.
04:23The start after that, Joe, seven innings pitch against the Twins, 12 strikeouts, and one earned run.
04:28It did get lumped up a little bit in his last start on the road against Cincinnati.
04:31Four innings pitched, four earned runs, five walks, and only three strikeouts.
04:35So he also is looking for a bounce-back performance.
04:38And those last two performances at home, 13 innings pitched, two earned runs, and 18 strikeouts in those two performances here for Glass now.
04:45Sonny Gray is always an interesting one to me, too, because you know the pedigree of the name.
04:49He's a good pitcher.
04:50Do you know his last 45 days, he's got a 5.40 ERA, but his XFIP is so good at 2.60.
04:57So something has to give tonight.
04:58Is it the eye test of the ERA, or is it the analytics who absolutely love Sonny Gray, and which one holds up?
05:03That's why we're seeing that total across the board at eight.
05:05Let's take a look at Arizona here.
05:07Basically dead in the water at this point.
05:09Not really going to chase down the Dodgers or the Padres, or maybe even the, you know, San Francisco Giants.
05:14But Sears, the lefty, will be on the mound tonight for the Padres going up against Brandon Fogg.
05:179.07, 9.08 on the rotation, a 9.40 start tonight.
05:21The total listed at 9.5.
05:22The favorite, of course, it's going to be San Diego.
05:25Sears on the mound, used to pitching for Sacramento slash Oakland, now on the mound for the Padres.
05:31Yeah, no, it's, and the Padres need to keep winning because they are coming for the Dodgers, at least what we expect them to do.
05:41In the meantime, Arizona finally has put a winning streak together, a couple of back-to-back wins against the Athletics after losing that first one.
05:50It was a seven-game losing streak that they finally snapped.
05:53They've put it together here, starting to see the bats again come to live.
05:58Now the Detroit deadline has come and gone.
06:01Now they're settling in here.
06:03I think it's an over.
06:04Brandon Fogg cannot be trusted.
06:07And, listen, Sears has been good, but new team, first spot, I like the chances of us getting double-digit runs in this game.
06:17I think you're right about that, too, because you look at Brandon Fogg.
06:19He had a three-game stretch.
06:20He was like, hey, is this guy really bouncing back July 9th, 18th, and 23rd?
06:24All quality starts.
06:25Eight innings, seven innings, and five and a third innings there that he provided.
06:28His last start against Detroit on the road, which, again, Detroit is not a great hitter's ballpark.
06:32Four and two-thirds innings pitched, 11 hits, seven earned runs, three home runs, and only three strikeouts.
06:39I'm with you on that.
06:40You see that nine and a half?
06:41It's like, oh, I've got to get ten runs done, Angel.
06:43How can you get that done?
06:44These aren't two pitchers heading in the right direction.
06:46These two teams can certainly light it up here.
06:48I like that Padres lineup now.
06:50Extra quirk, extra pop there.
06:52And still Arizona on a night-to-night basis.
06:54Kital Marte, hopefully he's back in the lineup today.
06:56We'll see.
06:56But that total as well, nine and a half, I think it also goes over the total.
07:00So a couple games to take a look at here, some interesting options.
07:03It's nice, though.
07:04Major League Baseball over the past couple years, Joe, making it a point to say,
07:07we're not punting on Mondays anymore.
07:09Getaway games, three days, three games on a Monday.
07:11You've got a pretty good slate that you can sink your teeth into, starting at 640, ending at 1010 tonight.
07:17More Major League Baseball talk and handicaps on the early line.
07:21Yankees need a win in the worst way.
07:23One would have thought, Joe, when you were like, hey, you know what?
07:25We're going to head down to Miami.
07:26That's two or three games automatically.
07:27Maybe a sweep before we head over to Texas here, a team that's also fighting for a playoff spot.
07:31And away we go.
07:32Not the case.
07:33The New York Yankees get swept down on South Beach.
07:35Now they head to Texas to take on the Rangers.
07:38Two lefties on the mound today, Joe.
07:40Max Freed for the New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers going to throw up there.
07:43Patrick Corbin, 915, 916 on the rotation.
07:45805 start tonight.
07:47Seven and a half across the board as a total now, dropping down from eight and a side.
07:51That the New York Yankees, overnight amounted minus 140 price, minus 138s to minus 145s here in the betting landscape.
07:58Is this a bounce back night for the Yankees with all this pressure of how bad they played?
08:02Or is it, oh, no, we're on the road and we're tired in Texas?
08:06Might just beat us down, too.
08:09Listen, it's, I don't, I can't, I mean, kudos to Patrick Corbin, man.
08:14I don't know what to say.
08:15I mean, this guy has completely reinvented himself.
08:17His last five starts, Donnie, a sub 2.50 ERAs racked up, what, 28 strikeouts over his last 27 innings pitched.
08:28I don't know if he found the fountain of youth or what's going on there, but kudos to him.
08:34Max Freed has been good.
08:36We know the problem with the blister, right?
08:38That was a, kind of hit a snag.
08:41He's coming off an outing, Donnie, which he threw a season-high 111 pitches here in this one.
08:48Yankees have hit lefties well, but the Yankees are not the same lineup without Judge in it.
08:54It's tough to want to get behind them.
08:57The bullpen is good.
08:58I think Texas has got a shot here early.
09:01I'd be willing to look at them in the first five at a pretty decent price, Donnie, to maybe, you know, scratch out a run or two here against Freed.
09:11And I just can't trust this Yankees lineup against the lefty Corbin.
09:16Can't do it.
09:17The guy has been too good, and the Yankees have been that bad.
09:20Yeah, because you look at it, too, that price point.
09:22And I understand, like, we always talk about the Yankee tax.
09:24Like, Texas is a better team than they were just two to three weeks ago alone.
09:28But maybe it's just like, oh, Max Freed has been really good this season on the totality.
09:31And Patrick Corbin is always going to be Patrick Corbin.
09:34But if you look at the statistics, last 45 days to get a really good look, Patrick Corbin here is a 3.95 ERA and a 3.53 XFIP number.
09:41Very manageable.
09:42Really, as you said, rebuilt his season as being a quality starting pitcher.
09:46Max Freed, who is unbelievable, like, shot out of a cannon this year for the Yankees.
09:50Hey, that was money really well spent.
09:52His last 45 days, 39 innings pitch show, a 438 ERA, and a 407 XFIP number.
09:58So, I want to see where this line actually winds up when some handicappers get out there in the afternoon and the money starts to pile in.
10:04Because I'm with you.
10:05That's just, hey, the Yankees, it's not, the Yankees didn't just sweep them on.
10:08It's like, yeah, they're on the road.
10:09They still should be favored.
10:10They were really bad.
10:11There's internal turmoil where some think the manager could be going at any point.
10:15And you're right, Max Freed, blister issues here.
10:17Hasn't pitched all that well.
10:19Corbin resurgence.
10:20And they're getting money at basically a plus 120 across the sportsbooks right now for Texas.
10:24Interesting one to keep an eye on.
10:26Let's keep it roughly in that same division.
10:27Let me just say this, though, Donnie, quickly.
10:29Yeah, go ahead.
10:29Let me just say this.
10:31Max Freed, because of the 111 pitches he's coming at, I don't know what his outs prop is.
10:37But if it's 17 and a half, 16 and a half, with the bullpen that they have now, at any sign of trouble, Max Freed is out of there.
10:45So, maybe under his outs prop as well is not a bad look.
10:50You're right about that, too, because of how they're playing out the season itself.
10:53If this was a normal August game, hey, Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10.
10:58Hey, Max, go out there, get stretched out.
10:59We'll see what we have.
11:00It almost feels like, and it's not like a playoff atmosphere against another team you might be fighting for the playoffs with.
11:05If Freed is struggling after five innings, like, hey, kid, you got to get out there and have at least seven innings.
11:09Like, your bullpen is built now to win right now.
11:13Use them at this point here.
11:14Boston, on the other hand, built to win right now.
11:16They're winning baseball games.
11:17They're going to take on Kansas City today.
11:19Bayo is going to be on the mound against Bailey Falter, man.
11:21You should get some runs today.
11:23Tens on the open market last night.
11:25They have dropped down to nine and a half right now, but still a favorite for Boston around that minus 160 price.
11:30Boston looking really good at the plate on the mound.
11:33I like what I see here.
11:34Bayo on the mound today.
11:35Should be able to pick up a victory.
11:36What do you think in between them and the Kansas City Royals?
11:39Don't sleep on the Royals here, guys.
11:41They have figured out how to hit again.
11:43They just took two out of three out of Toronto in Toronto.
11:47And they out hit them in all of them, including against a couple of their better pitchers like Bassett yesterday.
11:54So, a 7-4 extra inning win yesterday.
11:57I am with you.
11:58I don't see with these guys how we're not getting some runs.
12:02Having said that, I'm going to take Boston in the first five here, Donnie.
12:07I like their chances of having the lead.
12:10And then once the bullpen gets involved, yeah, I can't promise you anything from there.
12:13You look at the Boston Red Sox lineup tonight, it's going to be chock full of right-handed batters.
12:18Why?
12:18Bailey Falter's a lefty here, and he really struggles, particularly the past 30 days, Joe, with right-handed batters.
12:24Those right-handed batters tonight.
12:25Ref Snyder, Bregman, Gonzalez, Story, Narvaez, Raffaella, or Sedane Raffaella.
12:30This team looks good.
12:32Weighted on base percentage.
12:33Fives are high.
12:33Sometimes just riding that streak.
12:35And Falter ain't stopping any streaks out here, Joe and Erie.
12:38Let the runs commence in Boston.
12:40We'll be right back into the early line.
12:41More baseball, more baseball, more baseball as we head to Citi Field.
12:45Losers yesterday were the New York Mets.
12:46And also, we'll say this every day, Joe, in here, it feels like, hey, look at that.
12:50Today, the Phillies are in first place.
12:51Tomorrow, the Mets probably back in first place.
12:54The Cleveland Guardians come to town.
12:55Ciccone's on the mound going up against Sean Minaya, the left-handed pitcher.
12:58923, 924 on the rotation.
13:00The 7-10 start from Citi Field.
13:02And a heavy favorite overnight for the Mets.
13:04Minus 225s.
13:05That is now shrinking.
13:07178s, minus 187s, but still a heavy favorite towards the Mets.
13:10A total across the board listed at 8.
13:13Mets in a bounce-back spot tonight.
13:15But Cleveland, still a little feisty out there, Joe, at the plate.
13:19Yeah, they did.
13:20Except, you know, that game yesterday against the Twins was kind of crazy.
13:25They scored six runs in the first inning.
13:27And then they struggled until late in the game.
13:30And they couldn't get anything going here.
13:32But you've got to like the Mets' chances in a bounce-back spot at home.
13:38Don't like this Guardians team.
13:40Don't like the bullpen situation now for them either.
13:44I do think the Mets have the advantage.
13:47I can't lay the one and a half with the Mets because, let's face it, we just can't trust them at this particular point.
13:55But I'd be willing to bet that if there are runs scored, they'll likely be playing from in front.
14:01That being the New York Mets.
14:02So, I wouldn't mind laying the half a run with the Mets in the first five and giving Menea a chance to shut this very weak Guardians lineup down.
14:12Massive game here in the NL East.
14:14Why?
14:14Because if they win and the Phillies lose, the Mets could be back in first place.
14:17So, that leads right into the Philadelphia Phillies at home once again tonight.
14:20And you don't have that stigma that we talk about, Joe.
14:23It's like, okay, Sunday night baseball team that goes on the road, stays on the road.
14:26Like, the Phillies were home last night.
14:28They're home again tonight.
14:29That certainly helps.
14:29And it's a 645 game.
14:31Not an early game.
14:32Povich, the lefty, would be on the mound against Jose Lozardo.
14:35921, 922 from Citizens Bank Ballpark.
14:38645 tonight.
14:39Minus 190s overnight, Joe.
14:40They're rising now.
14:41We have minus 200s, minus 205s out here across multiple sportsbooks.
14:45And a total, let's listen, between 9 and 8.5, depending on where you're shopping at.
14:49I know we're talking over the break here.
14:51Take a look at Jose Lozardo.
14:52Some unbelievable starts.
14:54Some unbelievably bad starts.
14:56Jesus Lozardo, excuse me.
14:58Cade Povich on the mound.
14:59The lefty.
14:59He's just coming back saying, hey, guys, did you miss me here?
15:02I don't think they missed him at all.
15:03And I don't think the Phillies are going to miss too much of the play tonight.
15:06Yeah.
15:07You know, if I'm not mistaken, Lozardo is awful at Citizens Bank, isn't he?
15:13I mean, it seems like a lot of the times we've seen him get lit up, it's been in his own home
15:19ballpark here.
15:21You got to love offensively what you've seen from the Orioles lately.
15:25That lineup, swinging the bat really, really well.
15:29And by the way, they've actually, I think they're top seven or eight on base percentage
15:34here over the last month.
15:35So they got healthier.
15:37They're swinging the bat better.
15:39I saw Lozardo's outprop at 17 and a half.
15:43And would it shock?
15:45Would it shock you, Donnie, if Lozardo, I don't know, he goes five if we're lucky and
15:50the bullpen gets involved by the sixth inning.
15:53I'd be willing to go under.
15:54Can't trust Lozardo in this spot.
15:57And again, the fact that they just played last night, I'd be willing to bet against Lozardo
16:03going deep into this game.
16:06There's a lot of really good betting statistics here on the batters on both of these teams
16:10like the Phillies and the Orioles.
16:12I wouldn't be surprised.
16:13That's a high total, but it does go over.
16:15You just saw two teams in the Phillies in Detroit outside of last night, Friday night's
16:18game and Saturday night's game.
16:19Good starting pitching, good bullpens here.
16:21They put up a lot of runs in those first two games here.
16:23Just didn't get a lot of runs yesterday because Sanchez was phenomenal.
16:26Weather conditions in Philadelphia tonight, Joe.
16:27You got to love it.
16:2887 degrees, light wind blowing out to left field here.
16:31Two teams with some power.
16:32Maybe we do get some runs in this environment.
16:34But Lozardo looking certainly to be what Carlos, or excuse me, Sanchez was last night,
16:39Christopher Sanchez.
16:40I don't know if he's going to live up to that.
16:41So that's why we have that higher total tonight.
16:43Let's keep it with the Houston Astros and the Miami Marlins.
16:46The Marlins are a fun team playing good baseball and sort of awakening here.
16:49Now, do we think they're going to make a run at the NL East?
16:51No, but they certainly can take some teams down with them, and particularly a team that's
16:55down right now.
16:56That's the Houston Astros.
16:58919, 920 on the rotation, a 640 start tonight from Miami.
17:02Alexander versus Alcantara back in town because he wasn't traded, and Craig Misch let you in
17:06on that from the Sports Grid Network.
17:08A minus 130 favorite towards the Fish over Houston.
17:12Do the good vibes continue on South Beach?
17:15Well, they will early and often, as far as I'm concerned.
17:19Let's not forget, Sandy Alcantara, who we all thought was going to be traded at the deadline,
17:24is still wearing a Miami uniform.
17:26And a lot of that has to do with the fact that he's allowed, I don't think he's allowed
17:31an earned run over his last 14 innings.
17:35And the Marlins ended up not making a deal because if he has finally gotten the rust off
17:42and he is back to being, you know, the Alcantara we know, he is going to be worth a lot more
17:47money to Miami on the trade market at the end of the season here.
17:51So, Alexander going, Jason Alexander going for Houston, 18 hits, six walks, and 13 and
17:58two-thirds innings here over the last couple of times.
18:02Yeah, no.
18:03I like Miami.
18:04I like the bats to stay hot.
18:05I like him in the first five, though, because we do know that Houston's got the much better
18:11bullpen in this spot.
18:12But I'll take a flyer with Alcantara.
18:14I think that he has figured some stuff out.
18:16I like Miami in the first five here.
18:19Yeah, also, you take a look at Alexander on the mound, right-handed pitcher, really struggles
18:22with lefty bats on the season, a 309 ISO against, a weighted on-base percentage of 444,
18:27a hard hit rate of 68% and a barrel rate around 10%.
18:30You know, there's a pretty good lefty in that lineup for the Miami Marlins.
18:33That's Kyle Stowers, 67 at-bats over his past month against right-handed pitching, Joe.
18:37How about a 552 ISO and a 579 weighted on-base percentage?
18:41Maybe a yard shot there from Kyle Stowers.
18:44Let's keep the teams moving here.
18:46Atlanta, fresh from the speedway, back at home, taking on Milwaukee.
18:50Hot as you can get.
18:52Quinn Priesters on the mound.
18:53Quinn Priest, that guy's a terrible pitcher going up against Eric Fetty.
18:56Not so fast.
18:57We'll get into those details in just a few moments here.
18:59903, 904 on the rotation, a 7-15 start.
19:028-and-a-half at the opening number for the total overnight.
19:05We're now seeing eights across the marketplace.
19:07A favorite here from Milwaukee.
19:09Minus 135s overnight.
19:11That has risen.
19:11You see on the graphic right there.
19:12Minus 142s as high as 150 in the marketplace.
19:17Why stop a good thing?
19:18The bats are hot here.
19:19Priest is a good pitcher.
19:21Should they roll over Atlanta in Atlanta tonight?
19:24I, yes.
19:25And the one thing that I can tell you, and having watched all of these games over the weekend with Milwaukee at Washington, is that they jump all over bad pitching early and often.
19:37This is a team that plays from in front.
19:41And if you're not a quality pitcher, they're going to make you pay early and often.
19:47They've got a great game plan when they come to the batter's box.
19:50Eric Fetty, I think we can agree, Donnie, is not a great pitcher.
19:55In fact, there's a lot of different ways to approach this.
19:58I'm going to say go with one of my bets is the Brewers' team total over in the first five.
20:04I think it's two and a half.
20:06I think they score runs, and they're playing this game from in front as usual.
20:10Look, worlds collide here, right, where you like to take a look at a pitcher and say, how can I fade this guy?
20:15The last 45 days in Major League Baseball for the starters tonight, Eric Fetty has the worst ERA of them all.
20:2127 and 3rd innings pitched.
20:22It's a 10.21.
20:24Also the worst XFIP of them all tonight, Joe, at a 5.95.
20:28Just danger territory all over the place.
20:30Now, as I started, you said, well, what about Quinn Priester?
20:33Like, he used to be a fade guy for me.
20:34Not anymore this year, Joe.
20:36Last 45 days for him, 39 and 2 thirds innings pitched.
20:39How about an ERA of 2.95 and the second best XFIP on the card today, 2.79.
20:45The guy has been really good.
20:46So, Atlanta, maybe their bats can wake up, but if you want to talk about bats waking up,
20:51we started the show talking about Milwaukee and how much they were hammering.
20:54Why not let the good times go tonight?
20:55And also, in Atlanta, let me just do a quick peek here at the weather conditions, if I can get those.
21:01Rainy conditions tonight, which might put a damper on some things, but still.
21:04By the way, wow, how about this?
21:06Temperature 68 degrees in Atlanta tonight?
21:08We'll have to do some research, Joe.
21:10Who turned the heat off down there in the Big A?
21:12We always expect a beautiful night down there.
21:15Whoa.
21:15Yeah, a little strange there, but I guess maybe they got that cool front coming over from Bristol Motor Speedway coming through town there.
21:23But either which way, I think this is another one of those one-sided affairs here tonight.
21:29Yeah, no, we'll find out.
21:31Bad pitchers on the car tonight for me.
21:33Eric Fetty, Tanner Gordon of Colorado, always fun there.
21:36Travis Adams from Minnesota.
21:37Bailey Falter of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
21:39J.P. Sears changing teams here and now with the San Diego Padres.
21:44And also, am I seeing Verlander as well with another start tonight?
21:47And away we go.
21:48It's Major League Baseball season.
21:50At least it is for the month of August, as they are taking center stage before the NFL by the end of the week.
21:55Tom Vecchio, doing just bright and early on a month to get some props of his prop perspective next.
22:01Oh, yeah, having some fun.
22:03Hour number two, cruising through Major League Baseball.
22:05Time to get to some guests here.
22:07It's Donnie Wrightside.
22:07I'm always a guest on this show.
22:09You know who else is a guest on this show all the time?
22:10It's Joe Ranieri.
22:11You know who we love to talk to?
22:12It's Tom Vecchio from a prop perspective early on a Monday morning.
22:15Tom, how are we feeling today?
22:17I'm doing great.
22:18I want to say that we had a pretty good show yesterday on pro baseball today.
22:23Royals came through with the win, nailed the L.E. steal.
22:27Joe and I had a great time on ICL to get some in-game stuff.
22:30Despite the fact that the Twins and Guardians, that game didn't have as many runs,
22:35despite we saw six runs in the first inning, I'm ready to roll for it today.
22:40Good times also.
22:41Tom's bombs and Donnie's dingers yesterday did pick up two of those, which was plus money.
22:45Tom had the big one there, but Schwarber, bottom of the eighth inning here,
22:48cashed in one for me.
22:49A lot of fun yesterday also had Christopher Sanchez to get the win yesterday in Philadelphia
22:53instead of paying a minus-190 price down to minus-110.
22:56So Tom and I had some fun yesterday on Pro Baseball Today.
22:58Check us out weekly every Sunday, 10 a.m. Eastern to 12 p.m. right here on the Sports Grid Network.
23:03Before we get to some of your top props here, Tom, talk to you about the Yankees.
23:07You are a Yankee fan.
23:08They went down to South Beach.
23:09They got swept by the Marlins.
23:11They're taking on Texas tonight.
23:12What's the deal?
23:14It's terrible.
23:15I mean, like, when it rains, it pours, I guess.
23:17And what I said to Joe yesterday was between the pitching, the hitting, and the bullpen,
23:22and the fielding, like, you want whatever these factors, like, they never get three or four of them
23:26in the same game.
23:27You know, it's Friday night.
23:29They got all the hitting, scored 10 runs, 12 runs, whatever it was.
23:32But then the fielding's terrible and the bullpen's terrible.
23:34Then on Saturday, okay, pitching, you only give up two runs, but then there's no hitting.
23:38And then et cetera, et cetera.
23:39Like, they're never getting it all to fall into place at the same time.
23:42So that is very concerning where they sit right now in the standings, dropping back to third
23:47and, I believe, the second wild card with the Red Sox winning yesterday.
23:51So they need to right the ship, and they need to do so quickly in if they're going to make
23:55the playoffs and or have home field advantage once they get to the wild card round.
24:01We laughed at that yesterday.
24:04But given the fact that Alcantara is the only guy making more than $3.5 million on a Miami
24:09roster, it's kind of laughable, Tom, the mistakes and what we're seeing from then.
24:15But you and I also watched that Atlanta and Cincinnati part two yesterday because neither
24:21team, they were supposed to have yesterday off, but the rain delay caused them to finish
24:26that game up yesterday.
24:28And you and I during the show were saying, let's take a look at what both these teams
24:33got going tomorrow.
24:34So what did we see for overnight lines in these games?
24:37So I remember yesterday, I think the Cubs were at minus 154 yesterday, if I remember
24:42correctly.
24:43That's what it opened up at.
24:44And it's minus 138 now.
24:45So there's a little bit of movement not in the direction I expected, partly because,
24:49you know, Mike Soroka is on the mound for the Cubs.
24:51He's an OK pitcher when it's all said and done.
24:53Nick Liddell is on the side for the Reds, and he's a good pitcher.
24:56So, you know, I still I think we'd all agree the Cubs are by far the better team compared
24:59to the Reds, but the Reds are a good team overall.
25:03And I actually like to see some runs in this game.
25:05You know, there's a little bit of wind blowing in today.
25:07It's not really that much of an issue for me.
25:08It's still in the upper 70s.
25:09So I like over seven and a half, sitting at minus 120.
25:13Again, Soroka is a good pitcher.
25:14He's making his first start with the Cubs since being acquired from the Nats at the
25:18deadline.
25:18But we see power in the Reds' bats.
25:20We see power in the Cubs' bats.
25:21And eight miles per hour wind is not going to shine me away from a seven and a half, getting
25:26us to eight runs overall, especially with what we know the lineups can do.
25:30A couple of big knocks yesterday for the Chicago Cubs, but also a team that's been red hot
25:35as of lately.
25:35That's the Milwaukee Brewers.
25:37They're going to be in the Big Eight tonight.
25:38And there should be a television show called Fading Eric Fetty because of how bad a baseball
25:43pitcher he is.
25:44Cooler temperatures in the Big Eight tonight.
25:46Some rain in the forecast.
25:47I would have loved to have seen that bad boy 85 and 90.
25:49Joe and I just went over this game.
25:50I was shocked to see those temperatures that low today.
25:53But the one thing that could heat things up is Eric Fetty on the mound.
25:56What are we looking at from the brew crew tonight?
25:57Uh, we should be looking at more runs, more runs early, more runs in the middle of the
26:02game, more runs late because the Braves bullpen is terrible.
26:05Uh, Eric Fetty is terrible as Donnie.
26:07We have discussed plenty of times on pro baseball today.
26:10Eric Fetty was DFA'd a couple of weeks ago by the Cardinals because he is so bad.
26:14And the Brewers are arguably the hottest offense in the league right now.
26:18Granted, they just played the Nats and they poured in a million runs over the weekend.
26:21But let's turn to Christian Jelic, getting him a minus 110 for two plus total bases.
26:26I think this is an extremely fair line.
26:28He's obviously swinging a fantastic back going up against Fetty.
26:31If we look at Fetty's numbers specifically versus lefties, over a 200 ISO allowed.
26:37This is fantastic for Jelic.
26:38Yes, the rain does present a little bit of an issue, whether it's delayed.
26:41But still, the Braves bullpen has been terrible all season.
26:44So even if Fetty starts and then there's a delay and he doesn't come back, we're still
26:47getting exposure to the Braves bullpen, which is horrible.
26:50So give me Jelic going for two plus total bases and the Brewers score a ton of runs tonight.
26:56All right.
26:58I like this here.
26:59We also learned together yesterday, Tom, about the Mizoroski going to the IL.
27:05And then we watched Logan Henderson step in like there was no big deal here.
27:10But things have changed when it comes to the rookie of the year now.
27:13Instead of him in the National League Mizoroski, we've got Drake Baldwin at the top here.
27:19I don't, he's only expecting to miss two starts here.
27:22Are we getting a big, big break here on Mizoroski as the rookie of the year?
27:28I think so.
27:29And I think it comes down to the fact that I just don't like that Baldwin number.
27:33Like Baldwin's had a good year.
27:34There's no doubt about it.
27:35But A, he's splitting time with Sean Murphy.
27:37You know, if we look at it, he's got a 128 WRC plus.
27:41He has a two war, at least over on Fangrass.
27:43If you look at Collins, Collins had a 126 WRC plus.
27:47He has a 2.3 war.
27:48And this is not to say that Ramirez isn't also in the mix because Ramirez is going to
27:51have more home runs than either of them.
27:53He's not, it doesn't have as high as a batting average.
27:55His defensive war isn't as good, you know, et cetera, et cetera.
27:57But I think the price on Baldwin is just a bit too much.
28:00He's having a good season, but it's not great.
28:02So if Mizoroski comes back and he goes six innings and has 10 strikeouts, as we know we
28:07can do, that number, is that 15 to one that I saw, that's going to plummet down to,
28:12it's going to be cut in half, right?
28:13So I think there's a time to take position on basically anyone other than Baldwin.
28:18And this isn't, you know, not some slight to Baldwin, but I just think the number's wrong.
28:21If you told me Ramirez was at 10 to one or Collins was at 10, I'd be interested in all
28:24of those ahead of Baldwin.
28:27All it takes is one week out of these rookies, a really good week, a really bad week.
28:30And those numbers are certainly going to change.
28:31You take a look at the AL MVP marketplace.
28:33Now, we used to talk so many times, Tom, last two weeks, like, hey, man, Aaron Judge
28:36now an underdog to win this.
28:38He's back to a favorite at a minus 210 price in the National League.
28:41Look at Schwarber starting to storm the forward under 10 to one now.
28:45Give me a little bit of a taste there of the AL and National League MVP here.
28:49Well, when it comes to the NL, like, I want to see a hitter do everything better compared
28:54to Shohei, just to give us the argument, where if you have someone at higher batting average,
28:57more home runs, more guys, he has to be in the conversation.
29:00And then for the AL, Cal Raleigh's cooled off a little bit, and I think that's why the
29:04numbers changing to see Judge back to being the favorite.
29:07There we go.
29:08Tom Vecchio, bright and early with us on the early line on the Sports Grid Network,
29:11Sirius XM channel, Fun 59.
29:13You can catch him all over the airwaves, which include with me on Sunday mornings here,
29:18Pro Baseball Today.
29:19We'll be back to close it down next, right here on the early line.
29:23Oh, it's time to close it down on a Monday.
29:25So much fun had over the past two hours, Joe Ranieri.
29:27Like, might as well go for another hour, two hours.
29:29You never know.
29:30You'll see us around the networks here certainly doing that.
29:32But how did you feel about today?
29:33Was the energy good enough for you?
29:34Does it feel like we're propelling the people in the audience into their Sports Weekly right
29:39here at the grid?
29:41Absolutely.
29:42We're getting excited here, Donnie.
29:44And we've actually had a pretty profitable week last week here on the show, and we're
29:49looking to kick it off again with a couple of winners here.
29:53Yeah, Joe was on fire last week.
29:55And again, I had to at least join the party on Friday, which we did hit a double banger.
29:58Maybe we can get back into that today.
29:59We'll take a look at those picks in just a few moments.
30:01But how about this, Joe?
30:02We have Thursday night football games.
30:03We've got Friday night football games.
30:05We've got Saturday.
30:05Your teams are going to be in play.
30:07And as I look at right now, it's August 4th.
30:10Correct me if I'm wrong.
30:11September 4th, opening kickoff in the NFL, 30 days away.
30:15Got to love that.
30:17Yeah.
30:17And before that, you've got some college football that'll take center stage the week prior.
30:24So the countdown has begun, Donnie.
30:27The way I see it, T-minus three weeks and counting.
30:30Let's, until football is a big part of our lives once again.
30:34Got to love it.
30:35And you know what else is a big part of our lives here to end the show?
30:37It's bye, bye, bye, people.
30:39It looks like a tag team match tonight.
30:48That's what I'm feeling.
30:49I think we're not going to be wrong tonight.
30:51I think we're just going with the gut feeling of this pitcher stinks.
30:54This team is good.
30:56Let's ride that wave here.
30:57So I'm going to let you go first, Joe Neri.
30:59Where are we headed tonight on the Major League Baseball, WNBA card?
31:02I don't know what's out there.
31:03What do you got for a best bet?
31:05Let's keep it simple here, Donnie.
31:08If it ain't broke, let's not fix it.
31:11And right now, the Milwaukee Brewers are not broke.
31:15Coming out of a unbelievable weekend against the Nats,
31:19who have very suspect pitching, to say the least.
31:23And it doesn't matter because it felt like they were scoring multiple
31:26touchdowns every game against that pitching staff.
31:29Well, they get to go to Atlanta here tonight,
31:32who, again, was supposed to have a day off yesterday and didn't.
31:35So kind of messed them up a little bit.
31:38And now they've got to come home and throw Eric Fetty out against the hottest
31:42hitting team in Major League Baseball and the Brewers.
31:45Quinn Priester, by the way, unbelievable what this kid has done.
31:50Another young pitcher for the – I don't know where they're getting him out,
31:55but absolutely unbelievable.
31:569-2, 2.57 ERA in his last 15 outings.
32:01The advantage they have in the starting pitching in this game can't go unnoticed.
32:06I'm going to back the Brewers early here.
32:08I think that's a very reasonable price for a team that's got the better pitcher
32:12and the better lineup and a better spot at minus 135.
32:17I'll take the Brewers.
32:18I'll even lay the half a run as well at even money here.
32:22I think the Brewers play from in front.
32:24Tag me in, Joe, because we're doing it all with the Brew crew today.
32:28I'm going to back you up.
32:29I'm just going to go money line nine innings.
32:31Give me nine innings.
32:31A better team is going to win this game.
32:32Even if we have cooler temperatures in the Big A, this team is better than the
32:36Atlanta squad.
32:36I have the better pitcher.
32:38Who knows about the lineup?
32:39Who's going to be hitting?
32:39Who's even going to be in the lineup for the Atlanta Braves?
32:42Give me the team that's going to be in a pennant race.
32:43That's not the Braves.
32:44That's the Milwaukee Brewers.
32:45If you look at Eric Fetty's last 30 days in Major League Baseball, 66 batters face,
32:50a 316 ISO against, a good one for a pitcher is like 140.
32:54He's at 316.
32:55How about a weighted on-base percentage of 462?
32:57A good one for a pitcher, 320 or less.
32:59He's at 462.
33:01Barrel rates are up.
33:02He should get hit tonight.
33:03It's still not a great-looking lineup for the Brewers, but for somehow,
33:07they've been waking up over the past two weeks right now,
33:09and I believe they wake up again tonight.
33:11They should get runs regardless of the rain.
33:13It doesn't matter.
33:14And even if it does rain, all right, so they'll probably just keep Fetty out there.
33:17And if maybe, you know, Priest doesn't go that long, still better bullpen on the side for the Brewers anyway
33:22if it gets into a bullpen game.
33:23And also, you stretched that bullpen out yesterday on the road in that Speedway game for Atlanta
33:27from Saturday into Sunday.
33:29It was basically a bullpen game on Sunday afternoon.
33:31So a lot of advantages here for the Brewers as we await this week.
33:35But it's always nice to get the week started off in style.
33:38I feel like we are.
33:39We're not pressing here.
33:40We had a couple nice wins on Friday.
33:41It's a Monday, and the people should be happy about that,
33:44and we should be able to profit for the people on those Brewers Tonight Show.
33:47Yeah, I'm with you.
33:49I mean, it's certainly the matchup that we feel there's a big advantage on the card here tonight
33:55for I'm not stepping in front of the Brewers right now.
33:58That lineup is good, and they are locked in, and they have already shown inferior pitching
34:04gets lit up here, and I think Fetty gets that today.
34:07That's great.
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