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00:00But we do have Major League Baseball on the horizon today.
00:03It starts at 1.08 p.m. Eastern.
00:05That's Detroit and Cleveland today.
00:07Tarek Scoobles on the mound.
00:08Has a heavy favorite, close to minus 170.
00:11The spread line today, Joe, for you, with the Tigers and the Guardians.
00:15Yeah, well, we finally got the Guardians' starting pitcher announcement, right?
00:18Gavin Williams, whether it be him or Tanner Bybee.
00:21But Williams gets the go that makes a ton of sense,
00:24given the fact that the Tigers can't hit right-handed pitching, Donnie.
00:29And we told you yesterday, Scooble opened up as a minus 150 favorite
00:33without knowing who he was pitching against.
00:36That went as high as $1.75 yesterday.
00:39And then Williams was announced.
00:40And all we've seen is Guardians money coming back down now to minus 155.
00:46But it's the total, Donnie, I'm interested in.
00:49That was seven, six and a half.
00:51I'm seeing sixes across the board.
00:54These are two of the worst hitting teams down the stretch in Major League Baseball.
00:59This game doesn't scream run fest.
01:01But, Donnie, if this thing drops to five and a half,
01:04I may not have a choice here but to go up and over the total in this one.
01:09Sometimes you just see the sixes and say, okay, three on one side, three on the other.
01:12Because the expectations of Scooble going nine innings and throwing 110 pitches
01:16probably aren't there.
01:17And the first sign, if you get in trouble, they go right to the bullpen.
01:19It's not a lot of runs.
01:21Like, taking the under, five.
01:22Like, you get five.
01:23That's it.
01:24Six, you push.
01:25Seven, you lose that.
01:26That's incredible.
01:27Game number two we'll talk about, which is actually the nightcap tonight, Joe.
01:29Cincinnati and Los Angeles.
01:31Green's going to be on the mound going up against Snell,
01:33the largest line of the day at close to minus 196 or higher
01:37at some other outlets approaching minus 200 to minus 205.
01:41The spread line tonight for those Reds and Dodgers, Joe, is what?
01:46Yeah, well, it's interesting, right?
01:47Still, we thought Snell was going to go, figured it was going to be Hunter Green.
01:51But this is another one, Donnie.
01:53You know, all four of these games today, first five totals, three and a half.
01:58Full game totals hovering around seven or less.
02:01They are expecting four pitching duels, the market is telling us here across the board,
02:07especially in this one where this is your biggest favorite with the Dodgers.
02:12But call me crazy here.
02:14We've seen both Snell and Hunter Green be dominant,
02:17but we've also seen them walk a ton of guys and put themselves in bad positions here.
02:23I'm thinking the over is not a bad look here because, you know, both of these bullpens, Donnie,
02:29get lit up like Christmas trees in a hurry here in the latter half of these games.
02:33So I'm thinking if this thing gets down to six and a half,
02:36I'll be pulling the trigger on the over with the Dodgers and Reds.
02:39Playoff baseball is insane.
02:41Look, you have a six and three sevens tonight on the totals.
02:44It's like it's a different ballgame, and technically it really is,
02:47which brings us up to our final game that we're going to talk about tonight,
02:49and that's the rivalry game.
02:50It's Boston and New York, 6-0-8 start Eastern here.
02:54Low spread here.
02:55I should have said low money line.
02:56Minus 132 is at the opening number.
02:58Between minus 130 to minus 136, depending on where you're shopping at.
03:01Crochet versus Freed.
03:03Two left-handed pitchers on the mound today.
03:05What's your spread line for this one, Joe?
03:07You know, it's kind of crazy.
03:08The low – I get the low total in this one.
03:11Makes total sense, right?
03:12Six and a half's popping up all over the place here with these two guys.
03:16Here's a crazy fact about both these teams, though.
03:19You know, for the third straight season,
03:21the Yankees have scored more runs on the road than at home,
03:25and Boston scored more runs on the road than they did at home.
03:30I mean, both these lineups know each other.
03:33The bullpen is the issue for me with the Yankees, right?
03:36So if I'm looking anywhere, Donnie, in this series or in this game,
03:40I'm looking at the first five innings here.
03:43I'll be doing it each and every game.
03:45I think the Yankees get the crochet.
03:47Third time's the charm here.
03:48I'll be backing them in the first five.
03:51Four games on the docket today for Major League Baseball.
03:54Starts at 108, that's Detroit and Cleveland.
03:56308, that's San Diego and Chicago.
03:58608, Boston and New York.
04:00And then we have 908, Cincinnati and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
04:04Now, as I just said, a six for a total.
04:06And then all those high numbers, Joe, seven, seven, and seven at that point.
04:10Incredible stuff for Major League Baseball.
04:12It's Tuesday.
04:13We're just saying to myself, oh, no, Monday Night Football, what happened?
04:16We're waiting for Thursday night in the college football slate to start up.
04:19Not so fast, people.
04:20If you disappeared from Major League Baseball, which, by the way,
04:23a lot of the country does, and I don't blame them.
04:26I love baseball.
04:27May, June, July, August.
04:29Once we hit September, it's like, is this season over?
04:31Because, boy, I love myself some football.
04:33But as a Phillies fan, it's right October.
04:35I love it.
04:36My Phillies won't be playing until Saturday, Joe.
04:38But the postseason picture is set, and we get underway today.
04:43Afternoon baseball.
04:44What a novel concept.
04:46Joe, if most execs had their way, they'd probably be like, okay,
04:49we need a game at 8 o'clock, 10 o'clock, midnight, 2 a.m.
04:53Because that's the best.
04:53Oh, baseball is meant to be played in the afternoon, Joe.
04:56I love it.
04:57A spread out four-game slate to enjoy today.
05:01How about it?
05:02Gotta love it, Donnie.
05:04This is what it's all about this time of year.
05:06And they've worked very hard, Major League Baseball and Rob Manford,
05:10to try to remain relevant right through the end of the regular season
05:15and heading into the postseason.
05:17And the timing of this is great, right?
05:19No football coming off of a couple of Monday night games,
05:22and now Major League Baseball will be back in focus over the next two
05:26to three days for sure.
05:27Now, let me ask you this question, too, because here's me, again,
05:30being commissioner.
05:31Like, the commissioner of baseball understands, hey,
05:34let's open up our prime time slate on Thursday night
05:37and go head-to-head with the NFL.
05:38We'll put four games on there.
05:40Hey, WNBA, this is how you schedule.
05:42Wait, baseball can play one in the afternoon on a Tuesday
05:47and still get ratings and people would enjoy it?
05:49WNBA, wake up.
05:51Play your games during the day in the playoffs
05:53so you don't conflict with other Major League Baseball
05:56and also NFL games.
05:58Novel concept if you want to make more money.
06:00But let's get down to it.
06:01The World Series odds.
06:02The Philadelphia Phillies sit there on the leaderboard right now
06:06at a plus 450 price, followed by the Mariners and the Dodgers,
06:09Blue Jays, Yankees, and the Brewers here.
06:11We're voting, Joe.
06:12Who's your vote for your World Series odds bet right now
06:15at those price points?
06:17I'm still kind of laughing how the Brewers and the Yankees
06:21now, what, 6-7-1 price is, I think, interesting,
06:27to say the least there.
06:29I still think the Brewers are the team to beat
06:31in the National League.
06:33And, you know, I think people are going to overlook them.
06:37Once again, they're going to undervalue them.
06:38They have been all year long, Donnie.
06:40Even when they were clearly ripping off, what, 14 straight wins,
06:45everybody kept being like, no, this ain't going to last.
06:48This team is no good.
06:49No, this team is that good.
06:51And they are made up just like we have seen in years past
06:56with the Royals and the Marlins and the teams that you're like,
07:00wait, who's on this team?
07:01Yeah, well, those are the kinds of teams that play better team baseball
07:05than the guys that it's either home run or bust, Donnie.
07:08And we got enough of those teams in the postseason right now.
07:12Oh, we certainly do.
07:13If we focus here on the National League,
07:14because we're going to talk about the Padres and the Cubs
07:17in just a few moments here.
07:18But the NL odds, the Phillies are the favorites here, Joe,
07:21to win the pennant.
07:21Plus 195, followed by the Brewers at plus 310.
07:24Dodgers 320, Cubs 650.
07:26Then there's those Padres at a plus 750 price.
07:29Understand this.
07:30Starting pitching is very important.
07:32Nobody's going to downplay that.
07:33But even more important there is how you can match your bullpen up
07:36against some of the better kidders on the other team.
07:38The Padres have guys that can be lights out.
07:41Take a look at Mason Miller since August 6th.
07:4320 games pitch, Joe.
07:4421 and a third innings.
07:46Zero earned runs and 42 strikeouts over 74 batters.
07:50They can go toe-to-toe here.
07:51Value?
07:52Maybe on the pods?
07:55Yeah, I don't think so.
07:56The problem with the Padres is they're much better at home
08:00than they are on the road, Donnie.
08:02They've been like that all year because simply, you know,
08:05it's a pitcher's ballpark.
08:09So it's not conducive to hitting home runs like you do
08:12in some of these other ballparks.
08:14And they're not a great power-hitting team, the Padres.
08:17But we also know home runs are the great equalizer
08:20in the postseason.
08:21And there are teams that can do it and teams that can't.
08:25And I think the Padres are up against it right now
08:28because they're going to spend a lot of time on the road
08:30and that's not great for them.
08:31No, it's certainly not great for them here.
08:33But if we do take a look, Nick Pavetta is going to get the nod here
08:36as starting pitcher, game number one for the Padres
08:39going up against the Cubs.
08:41Boyd is going to go for Chicago.
08:42If we line this game up, Joe, sevens across the board.
08:45And again, this isn't Wrigley.
08:46The wind is blowing in, but not a hurricane-force wind out there.
08:50Seven to eight miles per hour.
08:52Nice temperatures.
08:53Mid-70s, Joe.
08:54And also no precipitation in the forecast.
08:56Good game.
08:56If we open the lines at minus-120, they've dipped.
08:59Minus-115s, minus-110s, depending on where you're shopping at.
09:02A de facto pick-em here.
09:04Pavetta versus Boyd.
09:05What are you seeing today in this game for you, Joe?
09:08Again, we're seeing two totally different teams here, Donnie.
09:12Number one, you got to – the Cubs are finally healthy again,
09:17which is fantastic for them.
09:20But keep an eye on the wind.
09:22Where is the wind blowing in afternoon baseball games at Wrigley?
09:27That's what matters.
09:29And when you look at how dominant Chicago was at Wrigley,
09:33I think they were 50-38 at home this year.
09:36Obviously below .500 there for the Padres.
09:40The Cubs hit the better long ball, Donnie.
09:43They know the park better.
09:44They are healthy here.
09:45It's kind of hard.
09:46It looks to me like Boyd, after the All-Star break,
09:49he's starting to run out of gas.
09:51He's thrown more innings, Donnie, in this season
09:54than he has thrown the last three combined.
09:56It's starting to get that wear and tear starting to show with him.
10:00And by the way, if you look at the pitchers
10:01and line them up analytically, Joe, since August the 1st,
10:04I'll give you yourself roughly two months here.
10:06Matthew Boyd actually comes in last with an ERA of 4.82,
10:09an XFIP number of 4.65, over 56 innings pitched.
10:13You know he's the eighth pitcher on the card today that's ranked?
10:15That's Nick Pavetta here.
10:17A 3 ERA, which is better than Boyd's 4.82,
10:20but analytically, a 4.20 XFIP number.
10:22So if I'm looking at Nick Pavetta going up against Matthew Boyd,
10:25there's not much of a huge discrepancy.
10:27But if we are playing in Wrigley, and I understand.
10:30Like I just told you, that San Diego bullpen is spectacular at this point.
10:33I got to tell you, like if I'm looking at this game and saying,
10:35if there's one chance, I think, for the road team possibly to come away
10:38with a victory in the National League,
10:40because Cincinnati is going to have a tough time, I think.
10:41I think it is a San Diego Padres tonight, Joe.
10:43Yeah, Michael King, by the way, has been left off the wildcard rotation.
10:51They were hoping maybe they could get him to work out of the bullpen.
10:54But listen, this is going to be, and I'll give you another fun fact here,
10:58Donnie.
10:58You know what?
10:59The best bullpen, the number one bullpen post the trade deadline has been?
11:04The Chicago Cubs.
11:05They don't get enough credit.
11:07Nobody talks about it.
11:08But they have been better than the Padres' bullpen down the stretch here,
11:12and that's going to be important with the wind blowing in here in Chicago.
11:15Chanting P-C-E-A, P-C-E-A.
11:18Love that.
11:193-0-8 start at Wrigley, the way it's supposed to be.
11:21Day baseball games.
11:22For you kids out there that didn't know.
11:24For about 100 years, Wrigley Field didn't have any lights.
11:27They always played in the day.
11:28Back-to-day baseball.
11:29Love it.
11:29Let's take a look at the Dodgers.
11:31Who is in their starting rotation for their wildcard round against the Reds?
11:35We've been waiting for the Dodgers, Joe Ranieri.
11:38I mean, look, they're a good baseball team.
11:39We get that.
11:40But, you know, we wanted to know who's going to be in that starting lineup,
11:42particularly the pitchers, so we can get a little taste for that postseason action.
11:46And, by the way, if they stay healthy and they pitch up the plan,
11:49the Dodgers are going to be a tough team and a tough out in the playoffs,
11:51no doubt about it.
11:52They're priced that way as well.
11:54Talking Baseball sent out a tweet that says the Dodgers will go with Blake Snell,
11:58Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Otani as their wildcard starters.
12:02But they also said if they get the sweep, which means the first two wins of the series
12:06go to the Dodgers, they end the Reds season, they move on to Philadelphia,
12:10and Otani would actually start the NLDS game number one in Philadelphia.
12:14How about that for starting rotation, Joe?
12:18Pretty impressive stuff, right?
12:20So starting pitching, not an issue here for the Dodgers,
12:24and none of us ever thought it would be, right?
12:27So the issue, Donnie, is going to be, well, what if one of those starting pitchers
12:31isn't exactly in peak form or doesn't have a great game and that bullpen has to get involved?
12:37That's the thing that would worry me about the Dodgers.
12:40But in each and every game, certainly in this series,
12:44they're going to have a huge early advantage here,
12:46even against Hunter Green, which is feast or famine, right?
12:50He either pitches where he can go a complete game, one hitter,
12:54and that's the end of it, or he's going to give up four or five,
12:58six runs and last three innings, and then that Reds bullpen gets involved.
13:02So more confident in the starting pitching with the Dodgers than you have to be with the Reds.
13:08By the way, looking at this Dodgers game tonight,
13:10late night game, 9-0-8 start, East Coast time,
13:13sevens across the board as a total, Joe.
13:14Let's call it minus 200 as a favorite for the Dodgers.
13:18And both of these pitchers, analytically and also just eye test,
13:21they've been brilliant over the past 60 and 30 days in their intervals here.
13:25Is the way to bet this game, don't you dare worry about the bullpens coming in
13:29and maybe the pitchers?
13:30Because can't we see like a 2-1, maybe 3-1 maximum over the first five innings?
13:35This is all going to depend on Hunter Green.
13:38Because Donnie, at home in Cincinnati, he was absolutely,
13:43he was almost unhittable in Cincinnati.
13:45But on the road, he's doing three with a 4.81 ERA.
13:50He's also has not been great against the Dodgers in his career.
13:54So, you know, what version of him do you get here tonight?
13:58If you get the locked-in version, this thing, Donnie,
14:00the first one to two runs is going to win.
14:02I'm with you.
14:03But the problem is it's all up to him.
14:05I think we know what kind of snell we're going to get here.
14:09But it's, to me, this is all about Hunter Green.
14:12And can we trust him to do something on the road against this Dodgers team
14:16that he hasn't done yet all year long on the road?
14:19So, would love to see it.
14:21But if not, it's going to be over early for the Reds tonight.
14:24How about the American League, Detroit and Cleveland?
14:26They're going to get the day started off at 1.08 Eastern.
14:29And by the way, welcome in Cleveland.
14:31The division champions who can't hit, can't pitch.
14:34Half their team was banished because they were gambling on baseball games.
14:37And yet here they are at home, but a heavy underdog to start.
14:40As high as plus 140 out there, which means Detroit is a favorite
14:43in around that minus 165 to minus 170 range.
14:47School Bowl versus Williams.
14:48And Detroit, they ain't coming in on any heater into the playoffs.
14:51They were terrible in the month of September, Joe.
14:55Yeah, they were.
14:56But does it ultimately mean anything now that postseason play?
15:00I don't know that it's correlated.
15:03But I do know this.
15:04The amount of games that these two teams have played down the stretch,
15:08there is nobody more familiar with one another than them.
15:12And as far as confidence goes, I mean, I don't know how the Guardians have any more momentum
15:17and confidence than they have right now.
15:19They know they can beat Scooble.
15:20They've already beat him twice the last couple of times there.
15:23And by the way, Gavin Williams, a 1.88 ERA and four September starts.
15:29He's won both his games over the Tigers.
15:31There's a reason why this is such a low total.
15:35Both offenses are heart garbage.
15:38They are terrible, Donnie.
15:39The Tigers hit lefties better than righties, but they're likely not going to get a lefty
15:44in this spot.
15:45So it's kind of hard to look at anything other than unders, team total unders across the board
15:52here in this series, Donnie.
15:54And by the way, if Cleveland beats Scooble game number one, like Detroit just pack up and
15:57go home at that point because it's a route.
15:58Like you would just completely demoralize that franchise, Joe.
16:02Yep.
16:03And again, Gavin Williams has been like this whole pitching staff at the Guardians has
16:08been fantastic here.
16:10And even when Scooble pitches well, they don't score any runs for him and they end up losing
16:14anyway.
16:14So they can, they have to win game one.
16:17I'm with you here.
16:18It's Detroit win or go home.
16:21Yeah, but Boston and New York, they're going to take it up at 6.08 PM from the Bronx.
16:26They're a favorite of around a minus 135 price.
16:28That's listed at seven crochet and freed.
16:31This game seemed to me placed to an under as well, but that ain't an under ballpark,
16:34Joe, that we know.
16:36No, it's not.
16:37But it's amazing that the Yankees were more productive on the road this year than they
16:42were at home.
16:43But listen, you got to get the crochet early.
16:45The longer he goes, the stronger he gets.
16:47As Gene Hackman said in the movie Hoosiers, four, yes, there's four games today in Major
16:54League Baseball.
16:55One o'clock, three o'clock, six o'clock, nine o'clock.
16:57Who doesn't love that?
16:58Who said, oh no, I have to work.
17:00I can't miss.
17:01I'm going to miss Major League Baseball.
17:02Pull out your phone.
17:03Get your second screen experience right here on the Sports Grid Network.
17:06We got you covered all day long with that Major League Baseball action.
17:10But if we do put a focus here, Joe, and say under the microscope, the American League,
17:14the leaders in the clubhouse right now, at least odds wise to win the pennant, the Mariners
17:18at a plus 200 price, followed by the Blue Jays plus 270.
17:21Well, that's easy.
17:22They're the one and two seeds here.
17:23They don't have to play in the wild card round.
17:25But in the wild card round, the heavy favorite is the Yankees at plus 330.
17:30So I want to ask you this question, Joe.
17:32Yankees beat the Red Sox.
17:33Let's play it out.
17:34Next series starts up.
17:36Are the Yankees now, even though they're not going to have home field advantage, the favorite
17:40here in the odds market to win the pennant?
17:42It looks like that's what they're setting up.
17:45As long as the Yankees are there, they're going to be the favorite, Donnie, as far as
17:51I'm concerned here.
17:52So, yes, I don't think there's any which way around it.
17:55And listen, I mean, deservedly so.
17:57I mean, they did have the best record along with Toronto in the American League.
18:02How they ended up in a four seed is hilarious with that.
18:05But it is what it is.
18:07And they are the defending pennant champion.
18:09So, you know, a lot of things here that point to the Yankees, certainly from the public
18:15betting, you know, the books know the money is going to come in on the Yankees here, Donnie.
18:20You'd be hard pressed for them to put up a big plus number next to their name.
18:25Let's take a look at that game number one today.
18:27108 start.
18:27Love to see it.
18:28Most people haven't lunched there.
18:29You got playoff baseball on your television.
18:31Detroit and Cleveland.
18:32Scooble versus Williams.
18:34A six across the board, which is wild that it's that low.
18:38But when you have a pitcher like Scooble going up against a lineup like the Cleveland
18:41Guardians, you figure you're going to have some dominance.
18:43Also, Joe, double digit winds blowing in at Cleveland, which is a pitcher's ballpark.
18:4876 degrees.
18:49You love to see that.
18:49No precipitation.
18:50So a beautiful day.
18:52But the question is, is that ball going to travel here?
18:54And also, Joe, conspiracy theorists unite.
18:56The dead major league baseballs get put back into the postseason.
18:59Is that why we're getting such low numbers here?
19:01Or is it just these pitchers?
19:02Are that good?
19:03Well, it's a totally different atmosphere, right?
19:07We know this.
19:08Everything is at stake here.
19:11And this is such a weird.
19:12The way it worked out with the baseball gods in this series.
19:15I mean, to have the Tigers have one of the most epic collapses in all of major league baseball
19:22history.
19:22And then to have to face the team that just helped them get there is kind of crazy.
19:27But the early start, I think, is fascinating in this one, right?
19:31Not only because, let's face it here, both these pitchers certainly can strike guys out.
19:37And both offenses have been absolutely horrific.
19:41I don't know who we're kidding here.
19:42Detroit's been better against lefties.
19:44But against righties, I mean, you got to be kidding me.
19:48I mean, these two teams, during the final week of the regular season, Donnie, when they
19:52played one another, two series, 19 runs, 39 hits, 65 combined strikeouts among these teams.
20:00These are not power hitting teams.
20:03These are not teams that are going to score a lot of runs.
20:05Who's going to play defense?
20:07Who's going to bunt guys over and play small ball?
20:10That's why it wouldn't shock me if this gets to five and a half, which is what I'm hoping
20:14for, Donnie, because if it does, I am going to go over.
20:175-2 would not shock me.
20:204-2 would not shock me as a final score.
20:22We always get surprised in the playoffs.
20:24Remember for years, it felt like Clayton Kershaw will be the Cy Young Award winner, get to the
20:28playoffs, and get detonated like a 15 ERA.
20:30Maybe Scoobo has so much pressure on himself today, on the road, knowing it's a must win
20:36where he's the ace and they lose.
20:37They know they're probably going home at this point.
20:39Also, you're looking around your Detroit lineup like this, going like, hey, somebody actually
20:43come up with some big at-bats here.
20:44We'll see.
20:45Certainly the better pitcher on the mound for Detroit, that doesn't always work out in your
20:48favor.
20:49Boston and New York, Crochet versus Freed.
20:51Two lefties on the mound, a seven as a total.
20:54This game's going to be played in the Bronx today, right around a minus 135 price point
20:58for the favorite.
20:59If we get the weather check in this game, Joe, 76 degrees in the Bronx, no rain in the
21:03forecast, light winds blowing in from left field.
21:05It should be a pretty clean game, but it is playoff baseball, all hands on deck in a three
21:10game series.
21:10That total is set at a seven.
21:13That's a rarity to find in a Yankees game in the Bronx.
21:15Yeah, it's interesting, too, because, again, baseball gods, pretty funny, right?
21:21The Red Sox won nine of the 13 regular season meetings between the two this year, and I
21:28believe it was a plus 15 in run differential over those games.
21:32However, down the stretch, yeah, boy, the Yankees are riding a pretty good streak heading
21:38in here, and they did handle their business, no doubt, down here in the final couple of weeks
21:44of the season.
21:45So, they are a better hitting team on the road, Boston is.
21:50Feels like if they can't get the crochet early, Donnie, they're not getting to them late here.
21:55I think they got to play from in front here is their best chance.
21:59You know it.
22:00Keep the pressure on the other team.
22:02Four games on the docket today, Major League Baseball.
22:04Make sure you're ready for 108 Eastern.
22:08You might be thinking, well, it's a Tuesday.
22:10There's not much going on in the sports landscape.
22:12What are we going to do?
22:13College football.
22:14Not until this weekend.
22:15The NFL doesn't kick off until Thursday.
22:16We got baseball, people.
22:18Wake up this morning.
22:20It's Donnie Wrightside.
22:21It's Joe Aniri.
22:21And Adam Kaufman waking us up with the energy that we need for four, count them, four playoff
22:27games today in Major League Baseball.
22:29And their afternoon action starts.
22:31Love it, Adam.
22:32I know you love it.
22:33Come on now.
22:33Yeah, what were we going to do without football today?
22:36Something tells me we'll find out the wild card round, baby, best of three.
22:39Now, I kind of hate the best of three format and teams not getting an opportunity.
22:44They're visiting teams to take a series back to their city.
22:48It's just, it's a broken system with a 162 game regular season.
22:51That doesn't matter right now.
22:53What matters is, like you said, we got four games in front of us and some pretty good pitching
22:56matchups too.
22:58Absolutely.
22:59And by the way, you're correct.
23:00Every year, it seems like now, Adam, I have to remind myself that, like, hey, wait a second.
23:04You're telling me that New York's going to get two games at home?
23:06If Boston splits one of those games, it's home at Fenway for game number three.
23:09What type of home field advantage?
23:10That is monstrous.
23:11It's a series in your own building, which I guess to the, you know, the winner goes the
23:16fruits of those spoils there.
23:17We'll see what happens.
23:17But today, Boston and New York, Crochet and Freed, seven is the total favorite for the Yanks.
23:23The hatred continues.
23:24But how about this?
23:25Boston owns the New York Yankees in the playoffs.
23:27How about that?
23:29Well, Boston has certainly had a good run against New York in recent years, and including this
23:33regular season.
23:35You know, you can nitpick these two teams any number of different ways.
23:38But Boston, nine and four against New York, including a five and two record in the Bronx.
23:43And we have Garrett Crochet on the mound opposite Max Freed.
23:46Now, these are two aces, obviously.
23:48One in Freed, who has been exceptional this year against Boston.
23:51And largely, very, very, very good and an all-star and living up to all the hype coming over from
23:56Atlanta.
23:56All of that.
23:57Crochet, though, has been a borderline Cy Young winner.
24:01I mean, I think you could certainly make a case for him, even though it probably goes
24:04to Tarek Skubal, the Tigers for a second straight year.
24:07The Red Sox have won the last seven of Crochet's starts.
24:10On the road this year, he has a .225 ERA.
24:15He is limiting batters to a batting average that's barely above the Mendoza line at .200.
24:20He's been exceptional lately.
24:23And for me, and I realize this game is in the Bronx, Crochet's had a little bit of an
24:27issue.
24:27His last couple of starts, last few starts, not so much the most recent one, but the
24:31two before that with the home run ball.
24:33And Aaron Judge, a prolific hitter on the other side, and just a Yankees lineup in general
24:38that can mash, like, I understand all of these things, guys, but I also understand that there
24:43are very few, if any, opportunities that you can invest in Garrett Crochet at plus money.
24:48I mean, seriously, plus 115 ballpark for Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox on the money line to
24:54me, and maybe, maybe, I mean, you can see this beautiful Boston skyline behind me.
24:59There's an element of bias on my part, but I just don't see how you turn down the value
25:05in that price to invest in Boston in game one.
25:07Doesn't mean the offense is going to stay consistent, doesn't mean all the pitching issues
25:11won't rear their ugly heads, especially with this elbow injury now that Lucas Giolito is
25:16dealing with, and he's not going to be available for a game three if it gets there.
25:20But you're just talking about winning game one here for this bet, and it plus money, and
25:24the, again, borderline Cy Young winner on the mound, I think it's a smart play.
25:29Well, Cy Young winner on the mound, and Tariq Scoble here is the third time a charm, Adam,
25:36because he's already faced this Guardians team twice over the last month, and he didn't
25:40win a game yet.
25:41Does he win this game here today?
25:43So, I don't know if he wins this game today, because I don't know how anybody could watch
25:48the Tigers and their 290 win percentage in the month of September and say, yeah, I mean,
25:55of course we trust this team.
25:57But what I do trust is Tariq Scoble, as you talked about.
26:00I know he's had his issues, whether lately or against this Guardians team, but, you know,
26:05I still think that ultimately your best pitcher is going to be your best pitcher when he has
26:10to.
26:11And so, for me, I don't know if the bullpen gives it away.
26:14I don't know if the Tigers do ultimately lose this game.
26:16I'm going to invest in Scoble in the first five.
26:19Now, there's no value on the money line.
26:22You're pushing minus 190 if you just take that for the first five because you're allowing
26:27for a push, so I'm going to go with the Tigers result, meaning after five, they're up by at
26:32least one run and trusting in a Tigers team that Scoble against the Guardians in 28 innings
26:38has a .62 ERA and 40 strikeouts.
26:42The guy has locked this team down.
26:44I just need him to do that for five innings and keep the offense at bay there for Cleveland.
26:50Meanwhile, the Tigers, they, I think we do still need to kind of remember this hasn't,
26:55it's an explosive offense that Detroit has had throughout this year, just not against,
27:00you know, Cleveland.
27:01Cleveland, for whatever reason, is a team that the Tigers have had their troubles hitting
27:06against.
27:06Everyone else, it's like five runs per game.
27:09Tigers, not so much against the Guardians.
27:11So, I think that figures itself out at least well enough today.
27:15Maybe after five, it's two to one.
27:17Detroit, doesn't matter.
27:18That wins the bet.
27:19From the confines of Wrigley Field today, the lowest line of the day, roughly a pick-em,
27:24minus 115, minus 105 split here.
27:26That's San Diego and Chicago.
27:28It's going to be Pavetta taking on Boyd here.
27:29Good weather.
27:30Wind is blowing slightly in.
27:32Mid-70s, no rain in the forecast.
27:34We're at Wrigley today, Adam.
27:35What are we thinking?
27:36Yeah, as a former Red Sox pitcher, I do enjoy myself some Nick Pavetta, but you cannot ignore
27:41the underlying metrics of really terrible advanced stats that would indicate a whole lot of luck
27:48for Pavetta and some of those, you know, mainstream statistics like win-loss record or ERA and
27:54some of those that he has boasted throughout this year.
27:57Whereas, if you dig in on the other side to Matthew Boyd, who has been really, really good
28:01for Chicago, it's kind of a contrast.
28:04You know, bottom half of the majors, Pavetta, in terms of, you know, you want to look at expected
28:08batting average, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate, and XERA, and all of these
28:14things.
28:15Whereas, on the other side, Boyd ranks in the top half of the majors in many of those.
28:18So, you know, I think at a game that is essentially a pick-em, as you noted, you know, you look
28:23at a Boyd team who has been very good, or a Boyd who has been very good for the Cubs
28:29against this Padres team on the other side.
28:33He's got a 1-6 ERA, 1-2 whip in a couple of meetings this season.
28:37A solid, rested bullpen.
28:39I like Chicago here at home.
28:41How about the final game of the night?
28:42Cincinnati and L.A.
28:43Minus 200 price point here.
28:44The Dodgers look prime.
28:46Their pitching staff is healthy.
28:47Going up against Hunter Green.
28:48We thought it might have been the Mets, but it's not.
28:49It's the Reds.
28:50How about it?
28:51Yeah, just for the sake of getting a better number, I'll, much like with the Tigers and
28:55Scoble, go with the result line for the first five for play.
28:59You know, you're not getting any value in the money line for the Dodgers' first five or full
29:03game, but you can get right around minus 125, minus 130 for the first five result.
29:08Snell is better.
29:09You know, we expect him to be on the mound opposite Green.
29:11This Dodgers lineup is exponentially better than Cincinnati's.
29:15And so, I think we're looking at the home team here.
29:18How about that?
29:19Adam Kaufman.
29:20He's ready for afternoon baseball.
29:21Are you ready for afternoon baseball?
29:23Adam, thanks for joining us once again on the early night.
29:25Bringing that energy.
29:26We're ready for Major League Baseball, people.
29:28Joe and Donnie will close it down next.
29:31I love it.
29:31I love it.
29:32I love it.
29:32Why do I love it?
29:33We're going to give out some best bets.
29:34Joe came up big last night.
29:35I took a running back that got over 100 yards, but didn't hit pay dirt yesterday.
29:38So, I'm looking for a bounce back.
29:40We'll get to that in just a few moments with bye, bye, bye.
29:42But I love the fact that Major League Baseball is on this afternoon.
29:45You can sit back.
29:46You can relax.
29:47But also understand this.
29:48Make sure you're watching the Sports Grid Network all throughout the day.
29:51We're going to keep you up to date on all the latest.
29:53And you know that's what we do on the early line.
29:55Setting the stage, opening up that paper and saying, hmm, let me read this.
29:59Look, what's Joe saying?
30:00What's Donnie Wright's side saying?
30:01That's what we give you here.
30:02But now's the time of the show.
30:04We like to reach out to the public, and we want to know what they think.
30:07Here's our fave to public poll.
30:16At Sports Grid on X, if you're not following, what are you doing?
30:20Hit the follow button.
30:21Get involved here.
30:21Answer the questions that we need to know so we can see if we're fading the public or not.
30:26The question was simple today.
30:27Who do you think will win the World Series this year?
30:30Four opportunities.
30:31One was the Phillies.
30:32Two were the Mariners.
30:33Three were the Dodgers.
30:34Four was other.
30:35An overwhelming, Joe.
30:37Other coming in at close to 53% live.
30:42Team number two, it's my Philadelphia Phillies, which you know I voted for at a plus 450 price.
30:47What do you think about the public today, Joe?
30:49And are you fading them?
30:51Well, I like their odds because they have a few other teams in that other category that can pull it out here.
30:58But it really all depends.
31:00Do you think it's National League or the American League that is going to win it all here, Donnie?
31:07If it's the National League, Philly's very much capable.
31:12I would stick with the other because I think there's a few teams, including the Brewers, that might be representing the National League in the World Series for sure.
31:22How about that?
31:23Let's go fight in Philly's today.
31:24But again, the Phillies, they're going to sit this one out.
31:27Mariners will sit this one out waiting for this weekend's baseball action, which is absolutely fantastic.
31:32I can't wait.
31:33It's right October in Philadelphia.
31:34But before we get there, we're going to watch some really nice high leverage situations.
31:39And the only thing I can ask for Joe as a fan, you sit back and you watch Tuesday.
31:42It's great.
31:42Wednesday is great.
31:43Give me at least two games on Thursday.
31:45Give me game number three is all hands on deck.
31:47Give me at least two of those.
31:48And we'll certainly be watching that, no doubt about it.
31:51But Joe, now it's time to get the people what they need.
31:54That's dollars in their back pocket.
31:56Here's bye, bye, bye.
31:56Bye.
31:56Bye.
31:57Bye.
31:57Bye.
31:57Bye.
31:59Bye.
32:02Baseball, baseball, baseball.
32:07Joe Ranieri, where are you going today in baseball?
32:10Well, we wonged our way in the NFL last night to a win there, Donnie, with a six-point teaser there, both for Denver and the Jets.
32:20But today, to me, it's all about the numbers.
32:23And right now, with the Guardians and the Tigers, Donnie, I am looking at likely a five-and-a-half at close in some spots, a total for this game at five-and-a-half.
32:34I don't need to tell you that it was quite a stretch in the month of September for both these teams.
32:41Certainly, emotionally, too.
32:43We saw the Tigers cave in.
32:45And we've seen the Guardians have to exert a lot of energy to get it done to be here.
32:50And I'm looking at a five-and-a-half.
32:53But I'm also looking at the spread for the Guardians at home with Williams that has been, I mean, lights out for them down the stretch against the Tigers team that can't hit quality righties.
33:05And you want to start me off with a run-and-a-half lead?
33:09I'll take that, Donnie.
33:11I will take the Guardians plus a run-and-a-half.
33:14And ultimately, I think, as a team that can not only win this game outright against Scoobble, I think it's just going to come down to a one-run game one way or the other.
33:23Too much value to pass up with the home team getting a run-and-a-half for a total, Donnie.
33:28That's five-and-a-half.
33:30I'm going to fade a home team today, Joe.
33:32How about that?
33:32I'm going to go to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field and say, Matthew Boyd, you were sensational for a good part of the season.
33:37Matthew Boyd, right now, you are not sensational.
33:39If we date this back two months, August the 1st, dog days of summer and start from there.
33:44There's eight pitchers on the card today, Joe.
33:46You take a look at Matthew Boyd, he's number eight on my card.
33:49ERA minus, a 117.
33:51Keep in mind, 100 is the average there.
33:53Anything above that is not good for a pitcher.
33:55A 106 fit minus, a 112 X fit minus, which is the worst on the card.
33:59An ERA of 4.82, which is the worst on the card.
34:02An XFIP of 4.65, which is the worst on the card.
34:05The worst pitcher on the card.
34:07Nick Pavetta, a 74 ERA minus, a fit minus of 99.
34:11An XFIP of 101 and an ERA of three since the start of August.
34:15I think I have overall the better bullpen.
34:18I think I have a coin flip there, but the better pitcher on the mound, I'm taking minus 102.
34:23San Diego Padres to get that victory in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, Joe.
34:27I love it.
34:28We got baseball, and we're batting it this afternoon.
34:31You gotta love it here, Donnie.
34:33Four series, and I think one has got a really good chance of going three games.
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