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00:00The Cy Young, we're talking about unders in Major League Baseball.
00:03That's music to pitchers' ears, Joe, because if you say, hey, the seams are changed, there's less drag.
00:08Remember, it used to be in Major League Baseball, like if you're a pitcher for the Cubs,
00:11like we can't sign anybody unless you're a sinker ball pitcher.
00:14If you're a fly ball pitcher, you will not work out in Chicago any way, shape, or form.
00:19Now you're saying, okay, I'm a fly ball pitcher, and the drag is lower on baseballs.
00:22I can give up as many fly balls as I can, and pitchers are taking advantage.
00:26If we look at the American League to start, I love Tarek Skubal.
00:28He got bumped yesterday on a rainout.
00:30Today, he's going to be back on the mound.
00:32He's a minus 280 price, and we're only in the month of June, followed by Crochet,
00:37who was fantastic last night, Brown, Freed, and also DeGrom.
00:41Is it Skubals to just win as we talk about, like, hey, Aaron Judge is the MVP,
00:45and Otani's the MVP of the National League.
00:47Skubal looks fantastic this year once again, Joe.
00:51Well, here's the problem.
00:53So does Hunter Brown.
00:55You know, Max Freed has been there.
00:57So is Crochet.
00:58I don't know there's that big a spread between what we're looking at here.
01:03I mean, it feels more like a popularity contest.
01:06I mean, I've seen the Royals beat Skubal not once, but twice this season already.
01:12So, and Skeens, we've already seen stretches where, yes, he can be as dominant as anybody,
01:18but there's also stretches where we've seen him can't make it, what, to the fifth, sixth
01:23inning there without walking a whole bunch of guys.
01:25It's not, I don't know that the numbers are that far apart from everybody else.
01:31But again, popularity contest at this point.
01:33You know, it's tough to bet on those two, Joe, because I, like, I'm saying right now, like,
01:37yes, Skubal's the best pitcher, but it's unlike, like, a day-to-day position player.
01:40Like, let's just say if Aaron Judge, who's the heavy favorite here at the FanDuel Sportsbook
01:44to win the MVP, hurts his hamstring and misses, like, two, two and a half weeks.
01:48He's got a ton of at-bats, and he can make that up.
01:50But, like, all you need to see is, like, hey, I bet Skubal minus 280.
01:53Ooh, the elbow's a little bit sore.
01:55Like, that could just derail an entire month of starts, which then you start to lose the
01:59battle of the strikeouts and how many wins you can rack up at that point.
02:02That's why it's so tough, because any given time, you just get that bad news, like, pitcher
02:06left the game early.
02:07Like, a player leaves the game early.
02:09Ooh, maybe he'll bang up his ankle a little bit.
02:10Pitcher leaves the game early.
02:12Usually devastation there.
02:13But Skubal, to me, is the best pitcher right now in baseball, and specifically, I should say,
02:18in the American League.
02:19Look at the National League.
02:20It's Paul Skeens.
02:21He's been wonderful.
02:21The jokes we always make up, hey, the guy's just wasting time out there on the mound because
02:25the Pirates won't win anything.
02:26He's the favorite at a minus 380 price in the National League over Zach Wheeler, Chris
02:31Sale, who was fantastic last night, Yamamoto and Webb.
02:34It seems like the young guns here taking control right now of the American and the National League.
02:40So, we just gave you the numbers on what Chris Sale has done his last, what, six starts
02:46here, and the guy is virtually unhittable.
02:48You can't even get a runner in a scoring position on him.
02:51And yet, somehow, he is 14-1 right now to win it.
02:57It just, would you take Skeens or Chris Sale tomorrow if he had a one-game-wins-all situation?
03:04Yeah.
03:05Man, can you imagine that?
03:07Can you imagine lining up?
03:08Like, we could have a dominant performance.
03:10And by the way, they could line up today, and it would be fantastic to watch.
03:13But, oh, well, it is what it is.
03:14By the way, Joe, did you know yesterday, we did have a couple of rainouts in Major League
03:17Baseball when the warmer weather comes in.
03:19Sometimes the big thunderstorms come in, and games are postponed.
03:22But let me tell you about this game that wasn't postponed and actually finished early, and
03:26it was a final in six innings.
03:27This is where I love where baseball comes in, and the business means a lot more, Joe.
03:314-2 victory yesterday for Cincinnati over Minnesota, which, again, I need them to score three runs
03:36They did, still end up losing a leg of the parlay on the New York Yankees.
03:39But that wasn't the thing.
03:40Oh, yeah.
03:40Well, games end early, Donnie.
03:42Did you know, Joe, why this game was probably played yesterday?
03:45Were you paying attention at all?
03:47No.
03:47Tell me why.
03:50What's the scoop here?
03:51Yeah.
03:52Well, the Reds, as you know, like, they don't draw a ton of fans, right?
03:55They're not a team in first place, and, hey, it's sold out every single night.
03:58But yesterday was the second edition of Eli Dela Cruz's bobblehead, where I believe he was sliding
04:04into second base.
04:05They had pictures, Joe, around the stadium.
04:08Five hours before the game, the line started.
04:11Two hours before the game, it looked like they were giving away million-dollar gift certificates.
04:15Now, the best part about this is, if you're watching the weather from anywhere, they're
04:18going, like, this game should not be played.
04:20You are going to have absolutely torrential thunderstorms, like, right around game time,
04:25it's going to last an hour or two into it.
04:27You have a short window to complete this game before the storms come back in.
04:30But the Reds are like, we can't have 15,000 people waiting six hours before the game.
04:36Why don't we let them in, give them their bobbleheads, and even if we cancel the game,
04:39at least the bobbleheads are out there, and we got that out of the way.
04:41But they decided to squeeze it in.
04:43The Reds did win 4-2, but business over product, Joe.
04:46How do you feel about that?
04:47Yeah, you know what?
04:50Makes total sense.
04:51You got to take advantage of the opportunities as the Reds when you can.
04:55It's not like, you know, people are rushing because they expect the Reds to compete for
05:00a World Series.
05:01So, any reason you can get them to the stands and to the ballpark, you do it.
05:06And the fact they even got the game in, you're right, is kind of laughable given the conditions.
05:11What was it, a two-hour delay before they even started the time?
05:15Yep, exactly.
05:15Like, the game, at any other night, it would have been delayed, doubleheader the next day.
05:19Like, this is the biggest night, maybe the season for us.
05:21We have to play this because the fans will revolt, and they did that yesterday.
05:24It reminds me, Joe, growing up in the 1980s, when the Phillies used to tell us that we're
05:27a small market team, we have to operate as such.
05:30They didn't trade a baseball player at the trade deadline, Joe, because a week later,
05:33they had a beach towel night for that player.
05:36Never forget, like, it's still a business that these players actually have to operate under,
05:40and it's just the way it's done here.
05:41Take a look at some other outings yesterday.
05:43The Tampa Bay Rays, we talked about this a little bit.
05:45A 12-8 victory.
05:46Like, yeah, 20 runs in that game.
05:47The Orioles were up, Joe, 8-0 in the second inning.
05:50Didn't score again.
05:51And just, you see the Tampa Bay Rays chipping away, chipping away until that four-run bottom
05:55of the seventh.
05:56The ball was absolutely flying in Tampa.
05:59Love to see it.
06:00But we've all been there, Joe, right?
06:01Hey, money line on the Orioles.
06:03Game feels good.
06:04What was that final score?
06:05Yeah, they lost.
06:06And by four runs.
06:07Yeah, just when you thought Baltimore might have turned a corner, no.
06:14Up 8-0.
06:15That was a epic collapse.
06:16But you gotta, you know, I'm not stepping in front of this Rays train right now.
06:21I mean, they are 11-5 in the month of June.
06:25And now, of course, with the Yankees not able to hit score runs or win games, you know,
06:29the distance between the Yankees and Rays right now is, what, a game and a half.
06:35So this is what is possible when teams for a month get hot.
06:40And right now, the Rays have figured it out.
06:42And they've done it.
06:43Not only, they couldn't win in this ballpark to start the year.
06:46Remember, Donnie?
06:47Now they're winning on a road.
06:48They're winning home.
06:49The bats are good.
06:50We know the bullpen is good.
06:52You know, the Rays very much back into the conversation here in the American League East.
06:57And maybe the Rays were looking last night, like, wait a second.
06:59If they sell the team, that means new ownership comes in.
07:01We actually might make some money here as players here.
07:03Let's get after it.
07:04Let's start winning some games and show them that we're good for contracts.
07:07You don't have to trade our best players away.
07:09How about one of the best players in Major League Baseball over the past decade, decade and a half?
07:13That's Verlander.
07:13He's out there with the San Francisco Giants.
07:15Yesterday, Joe, four and two-thirds innings pitched.
07:17Seven hits, three earned runs, six strikeouts as he makes his way back.
07:21But Pablo Sandoval in this game, look at that, 0 for 3 with a strikeout.
07:26Get me back to Fenway.
07:27I hate this ballpark.
07:29That's what I can hear right now.
07:30Yeah, no, not good.
07:33And all those runs were in the first couple of innings there.
07:36I think they put up a three spot on a home run there.
07:38And then that was it.
07:39The Giants just couldn't put enough offense together to get anything going.
07:44I mean, that's now 0 for 2 with Devers in the lineup.
07:48So something's got to change there.
07:50Yeah, I'll tell you what else has to change here.
07:52The Washington Nationals.
07:53I mean, play matinees.
07:55I mean, half-priced tickets.
07:57Giveaway, free giveaways.
07:58Who's showing up to that ballpark when the Rockies resoundingly beating you on a night-to-night basis?
08:03Look, when Hermon Marquez can step to the mound and go five and two-thirds innings pitch, six hits, and no earned runs against you, maybe it's time that Washington goes back to where?
08:12Montreal?
08:13Where are we?
08:13Washington.
08:14What's going on, man?
08:1611.
08:16I mean, 11-game losing streak?
08:19Come on.
08:19But you know what?
08:20As crazy as that is, it's the Colorado Rockies winning streak that, to me, is just mind-numbing right now.
08:28They're actually winning games.
08:31And what is that?
08:31Four straight that they have won now?
08:35I don't care who they're playing.
08:37Unbelievable.
08:38Great job by the Rockies, the Nats.
08:40And I got to look in the mirror and figure some things out here.
08:44Yeah, come on, man.
08:44You got to be hitting against the Colorado Rockies, not them coming into your building and handling their business.
08:48By the way, if you watched last night in South Beach, the Phillies and the Marlins, a 4-2 victory by the Phillies.
08:54Nick Castellanos were brought out for defensive purposes two nights ago.
08:57That bench with some words made a really nice catch to actually end that game in right field.
09:01So, interesting times in Philadelphia and in Major League Baseball.
09:05What a day we have here.
09:06Game number six of the NBA Finals, which we will get to with Coach James Young here.
09:10Coming up and we'll preview that.
09:11We'll go over some props, picks that we absolutely love.
09:13But, you know what's nice about Major League Baseball, Joe?
09:16Midweeks, they give us some good afternoon baseball action.
09:18A lot of games will be played today before 4 o'clock Eastern.
09:22And we'd love to see that.
09:23One of those games is in the Bronx, New York tonight.
09:26And the Bronx cheers, certainly out in full effect here for the New York Yankees, have stumbled, to say the least.
09:32They're going to take on the Los Angeles Angels today.
09:34It's Anderson, the lefty on the mound, going up against Carlos Rodon, another lefty here for the Yankees.
09:39The favorites in this game, easily the New York Yankees.
09:42They opened up overnight at the FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey, Joe, minus 260.
09:46They currently sit minus 270.
09:48Other outlets as high as minus 285.
09:51The total of this game, listed at nine and a half.
09:54And as I talked about teasing before the break, hot and humid in the Northeast.
10:00First pitch, Joe, 90 degrees.
10:02Winds blowing out double digits here.
10:05We're going to get into this handicap.
10:07When you hear that, shouldn't the Yankees' bats just wake up because it's hot in the Bronx?
10:13Oh, hot and humid last night, too.
10:16And they can only muster a couple of solo home runs there.
10:19So, I mean, what's to lead us to believe that they can get anything done at this point offensively?
10:27Rodon is also an interesting situation here.
10:31He's, you know, he's tempered, you know, tapered off just a little bit over his last couple of starts here.
10:38He's obviously, you know, him and Freed are the guys that the Yankees have to win their games.
10:43They feel confident when those guys go to the mound.
10:47Anderson's going to go.
10:49And Anderson is a lefty.
10:50The Yankees crushed lefties this year.
10:53So, you would think hot weather, short porch, get the ball in the air.
10:58Good things can happen.
10:59But I'm still betting the under.
11:00If it ain't broke, don't fix it here, Donnie.
11:03Here's the interesting part, too, because it's Tyler Anderson.
11:06He said, well, okay, he's a veteran Major League Baseball pitcher.
11:08But I don't know how he's still in the majors at this point.
11:11I agree.
11:11You look at the card today, analytically, right?
11:13There's 32 pitchers on the card today, Joe.
11:16A minimum of five innings pitched over the past month.
11:18And from day one of this season, do you know who's 32nd on the card out of the 32?
11:23It's Tyler Anderson.
11:24His ex-fip is a 5.60.
11:26Well, wait, he's probably got a good ERA.
11:28His ERA, 7.30.
11:31There's 90-degree temperatures in the Bronx today.
11:33You take a look at the wind blowing out, and I have to jump back on them.
11:36Like, do I think they can get five and six runs?
11:38They should actually get five to six runs today.
11:41Because every day is a different day that you want to handicap.
11:43And, yes, the Yankees are really struggling.
11:45But you're right about this.
11:46Goldschmidt is crushing left-handed pitching over the past month, or excuse me, on the season itself.
11:51Let me just go down here to the last 30 days to get a better look.
11:54You know who's still up there?
11:54You know Aaron Judge is struggling.
11:5632 at-bats against left-handed pitching.
11:58A 345 ISO and a weighted on-base percentage of 413.
12:02Like, if you just take the Yankees lineup aside and say, yes, it's struggling.
12:06Tyler Anderson is supposed to be the perfect tonic, Joe, to score runs off of.
12:11So, I'm going to put together an all-team total parlay today, and I guarantee you, the Yankees are going to be in it today.
12:16Because why?
12:17Yeah.
12:18Put it this, Joe.
12:19They don't hit Tyler Anderson.
12:20I mean, we're talking about selling teams.
12:21We're talking about Boone's getting fired as a manager.
12:24Major shakeups in that lineup.
12:25You can't, like, the pitching that the Yankees have been facing has been horrendous the past couple games.
12:31And they still aren't hitting.
12:32Something has to change.
12:33But I think it changes today.
12:35It's kind of crazy here.
12:37I mean, Anderson has struggled his last three starts.
12:41I think over a nine ERA.
12:44Yeah, it would make sense.
12:46Would absolutely make sense.
12:47I mean, the Yankees are on the verge of being swept by the Angels at home.
12:51That's how ridiculous this is here.
12:54And by the way, Rodon already faced the Angels back on May 27th.
12:57Seven shutout innings.
12:59Yep.
13:00I don't know how many runs we're getting from the Angels today is my point.
13:05And that makes the total a little iffy for me here.
13:09But I agree with you.
13:10I do think the Yankees have an opportunity to bust out in a big way.
13:14And it's an early start here at 1 o'clock.
13:17And if you just, again, like, the algorithms that go into it right from the sports book.
13:21Like, the Yankees are, they're struggling.
13:22They can't get base hits and get out of their own way.
13:25Let's see how big a favorite they are today.
13:27Oh, the Yankees can't score any runs.
13:29Nine and a half is the total.
13:31And Carlos Rodon, as you pointed out here, Joe, his last five starts accumulated 30 innings pitched.
13:35How about an ERA for him that, let me just see, just get it exact.
13:39Let me see where we at here.
13:403...2.70!
13:42And we still got a nine and a half, and the Yankees can't get out of their own way.
13:45We got to get some hitting in the Bronx.
13:47Say, I do believe that hitting comes from the New York Yankees.
13:49We'll watch it play out.
13:50We don't have to wait long.
13:51It's an afternoon start there up in the Bronx at 1.05 Eastern.
13:55Game number two, we'll take a look at another New York team.
13:58It's the Mets, and it's the Braves here.
13:59Holmes on the mound.
14:00It's been a pretty good starter for the Yankees this year, going up against Spencer Strider,
14:03looking to get back into form.
14:05That's a 7.15 start.
14:069.07, 9.08 on the rotation.
14:08How about this?
14:09A slight favorite for the Braves.
14:11Overnight, Joe?
14:11Minus 118.
14:12Sitting right now, as you see the graphic, it's 130.
14:15A 8.5 total at the opening number, still sits at 8.5.
14:18The Mets are really struggling.
14:20That's a cheap price on the Braves game today.
14:22I actually like the Braves' strider today.
14:24Why not start?
14:25The Mets can't hit.
14:26The Braves playing better baseball, looking for the sweep.
14:29I'm going for the sweep.
14:31Yeah.
14:32Again, it's, you know, the bats are starting to come around for Atlanta.
14:37And we've seen that now in a couple of games here.
14:41Ozzie Albies back in that lineup, Matt Olsen hitting for power,
14:45and Akuna really seems to be turning it on.
14:48That's a dangerous lineup for me here.
14:51I do think, and again, Truist Park in the summer, I'm going with the over.
14:56I think the Mets have a shot at winning this game.
14:59I don't think they're, I think they're very much alive for this.
15:02But I also think, don't forget, Sale went eight and two thirds.
15:06The bullpen got rested for Atlanta last night.
15:09I think runs are coming.
15:10I would look at the over.
15:12I think eight and a half's a little cheap.
15:14Yeah, it's a night game tonight, Joe.
15:15First pitch, 81 degrees here.
15:17No real precipitation in the forecast.
15:19Wind's blowing out five to eight miles per hour.
15:21So it should be a good hitting night.
15:22And also, looking at strider, and you're right about that.
15:24It's a key ingredient.
15:25You don't have to expend the bullpen last night.
15:27They will be there.
15:28But strider in his last start did go six innings, Joe.
15:31How about three hits, no earned runs, and 13 strikeouts,
15:34and only giving up one walk.
15:35If he's back tonight, that's going to be a tough thing to deal with for the Mets.
15:39The only thing I'm surprised with, again, is, yes, we think the Mets are a better team.
15:42The Mets just aren't playing well right now.
15:44And that's a cheap price on strider, which was minus 125 a little bit earlier this morning.
15:48Now up to 130.
15:49I expect that line to probably go even a little bit higher as we get closer to game time.
15:52We'll see if the Atlanta Braves can pull off the sweep.
15:55Let's go out west.
15:56The Dodgers on a win streak.
15:57And as we talked to you at the beginning of this show,
16:00losers of six of their past seven games, that's the San Diego Padres.
16:03Yamamoto's on the mound tonight, and he is a heavy favorite.
16:06Opening number 250, you see the graphic on the screen, still sitting at 250.
16:10Other outlets as high as minus 270.
16:12A total at eight and a half.
16:13Most outlets now creeping to nines, even though the Fanville Sportsbook holding strong at an eight and a half.
16:18Birgit on the mound versus Yamamoto.
16:21Another win on deck here, Joe, for the Dodgers for you.
16:24It seems easy enough to go that way, but I'd be careful.
16:29Yamamoto's not been great last couple of starts, if I recall here, Donnie.
16:33So, you know, nine is the total.
16:36It's been hovering at that.
16:37It hasn't really gone anywhere.
16:39If Yamamoto is up to the task, this could be a lower scoring game across the board, I think,
16:46for the Dodgers and the Padres for the late night game tonight.
16:50Yeah, four to three last night in that game.
16:53Yamamoto, you know, a better pedigree pitcher, and that's why you're going to get that price point sitting out here.
16:56If we look at Yamamoto's last 27 and a third innings pitched here, 362 as that ERA, 372 as an XFIP number.
17:04We look at Birgit, 15 innings pitched over the past 30 days, 2.93 as the XFIP number, and 2.93 as the ERA, 4.51 as the XFIP number here.
17:16So, some good games to start off here.
17:18But again, just getting back to that game in the Bronx, Joe, here, 105 start.
17:22I'm telling you, sometimes you've got to be a contrarian, and being contrarian, going up against Tyler Anderson.
17:28It got it, Joe.
17:28They got to hit him today.
17:29If I told you right now, how many runs are we getting from the Yankees today?
17:33Forget about the Lions itself.
17:34How many do you think they played today in the Bronx?
17:38It better be more than two.
17:40I'll just say that.
17:41It better be more than two, because that's about all we've gotten in the last five games here, Donnie.
17:47That's it.
17:48Yeah, they have to win this game in the Bronx here.
17:51By the way, come on, Volpe.
17:52Simple ground ball to shortstop here.
17:54You're booting out at this point, striking out to end the game, going up against Kenley Jansen, who might be like 75 years old at this point here.
18:00Then we talk about the New York Mets taking on the Atlanta Braves at that point.
18:04They desperately need a victory.
18:05I don't think that's coming today.
18:06I think it's a cheap price on Spencer Strider.
18:08And then the nightcap tonight, while you're watching the NBA Finals, the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers, a monster favorite for the Dodgers.
18:15Maybe Otani bounces back.
18:17Last night, no base hits.
18:18Maybe tonight, he sends one deep into the night.
18:21More Major League Baseball in our number two coming up right now on The Early Line.
18:27A few rainouts yesterday lead to a few doubleheaders today.
18:30Extra baseball on a Thursday.
18:32We absolutely love to see it.
18:33But I got to tell you, like the hot topic is not coming from the handicap here for the Pittsburgh Pirates taking on the Detroit Tigers because we've got two games today.
18:41But we do have two games today and two pitchers that will be available.
18:44One is Paul Skeens, the leader right now in the clubhouse at the FanDuel Sportsbook to win the Cy Young for the National League.
18:50Tariq Skubal also due to pitch today, the leader in the clubhouse at the FanDuel Sportsbook to be the Cy Young for the American League.
18:58So one would think, holy moly, we got Skeens, Skubal, sign me up.
19:04And these teams go, you don't get Skeens.
19:07You don't get Skubal.
19:08At least not head-to-head.
19:09You get them one after the other.
19:11Interesting here, Joe.
19:12Let me ask you that question.
19:13Because, again, pitching promises and how they set up.
19:17Is this strategically done by both of these ball clubs to not have these guys go head-to-head?
19:22And why would that be?
19:24Yeah, well, I mean, A, it's not the postseason.
19:28It's not a do-or-die where you got to match their number one against your number one.
19:32I don't know what the schedule for the Pirates moving ahead is, but I'm sure there's obviously some sort of, you know, calendar involved on when he's going to pitch next and so on and so forth.
19:43So, you know, in the middle of June, it's not—trust me, people aren't dropping what they're doing at 1 o'clock here on a Thursday to go see Skeens and Skeens.
19:53It's just not going to be the situation.
19:55So if it just happens to fall that way, it falls that way.
19:59Bottom line is, this wouldn't even have been a conversation if the weather would have cooperated.
20:04Detroit, who is now 15-5 in its last 20 games against left-handed starting pitching,
20:09I got to agree—I got to believe that Heneek is going to give up his share of runs in this first game anyway.
20:15So why not give the Pirates an opportunity at a split?
20:20By the way, that game number one, you have Detroit and Scoobo, a minus 320 price on the opening numbers.
20:25Dipped down a little bit to minus 310, but other outlets, as high as a 340 price on Scoobo.
20:30Also keep in mind, that game number one does have some drizzle and a little bit of rain in the forecast,
20:34which is interesting for that 110 start.
20:36Game number two would be Pittsburgh, that's Skeens and Montero on the mound.
20:40A big pitching matchup there, or mismatch, I should say, there.
20:44But Skeens only a minus 142 price here at the Fan Blue Sportsbook,
20:47currently as high as 145 out there in the marketplace.
20:49But a total in that game, that's listed also around seven.
20:52So Skeens versus Montero, Keeney versus Scoobo, two aces on the mound, just two different games.
20:58We'll certainly see how they play out.
21:00Another game that was rained out yesterday, Milwaukee and Chicago, they'll play today.
21:04That's Mizorowski on the mound versus Jamison Tyone, same handicap as yesterday.
21:08This line opened up, though.
21:09Cheap price on Jamison Tyone, minus 125, minus 126, as you see live right now.
21:14It's a minus 124 price on Chicago.
21:17So some of that landscape changing just a little bit.
21:19Eight and a half is totals.
21:21Much better weather conditions than what we were going to see yesterday.
21:24Mizorowski versus Tyone today in the Windy City.
21:27Yeah, the question is, are we going to get, you know, which version of this lineup of the Cubs are we going to get?
21:35You know, we talked about their struggles all week long offensively.
21:39They haven't exactly been destroying the ball here, but looks like they'll have a pretty good opportunity to get some runs in this one here.
21:47But I'm still eight and a half.
21:49You know, if the wind is blown out at Wrigley in an afternoon game, Donnie, this thing would already been up nine, nine and a half.
21:55I'm still thinking we get a lower scoring game here.
21:59I'm looking at the under eight and a half.
22:01Yeah, you get looks like we're seeing a first pitch there around 76, 77 degrees.
22:06No precipitation to forecast, which you love.
22:08And a wind that's really like a crosswind blowing left to right, right to left, depending on what hour into that Major League Baseball game.
22:14But you know that, right?
22:15Anytime you see those totals like eight and a half, eight, that wind's probably not helping or hurting all that much.
22:20Seven and a half, you know, the wind's blowing in.
22:22Nine and a half and tens.
22:23You know, the wind certainly is blowing out at that point here.
22:26And it certainly does factor into that.
22:27But the doubleheader here that we're going to see between Pittsburgh and Detroit, we'll see how that one plays out with both of those superstar pitches on the mound.
22:34Mizorowski and Tyone in that Milwaukee-Chicago game.
22:37Let's get to another game here.
22:384-0-5 start out on the West Coast here.
22:41Expected lower scoring, typically for San Francisco.
22:44Williams, the right-handed pitcher, will be on the mound for Cleveland.
22:46Going up against Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants, who I always like when he starts.
22:50No surprise, he's a favorite.
22:52That opening number at the FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey, minus 162.
22:56Where does it sit currently live?
22:58172, up from that graphic there of 168.
23:01The total in this game, Joe, sits at seven and a half.
23:05Williams versus Webb.
23:06What are we thinking?
23:08If you can get an early first five under a four, I would go ahead and play it.
23:14Williams has been phenomenal for the Guardians.
23:16And Webb, everyone knows, is just almost unhittable at home in that pitcher's ballpark.
23:23So, I'm looking for a low-scoring game early.
23:27I don't want nothing to do with the bullpens, although both are pretty decent.
23:31I'm looking to go under the first five and four here.
23:34Yeah, still waiting for that Guardians lineup to actually wake up.
23:37And maybe you do get a wake-up here from Rafael Devers coming over, and we'll see how that turns out.
23:42But if we are looking at the temperatures in San Francisco today, 64 degrees, that's about what it is.
23:47Wind is a little bit stronger than usual.
23:49Well, it's usually about 10 to 12 miles an hour blowing out to dead center field.
23:52Today, it's 16 miles an hour blowing out to center field.
23:56But you take a look at Logan Webb, and you say to yourself, like, man, I wonder what this guy's going to give us.
24:00Well, every day, it feels like he gives you something fantastic on the season, Joe.
24:04How about a 105 ISO against?
24:06That's against 380 total batters.
24:08A weighted on base percentage of 278 against.
24:11A K rate of 28%.
24:13A low walk rate.
24:14Like, what does he not do well?
24:16He does everything well.
24:17And a lineup for the Guardians that's struggling.
24:19Like, yes, they do hit right-handed pitching decently.
24:22But this dish isn't any right-handed pitcher.
24:23You look at Logan Webb's last 30 days, which included five starts and 31 innings pitched.
24:29How about an ERA of 2.90, but an XFIP, the best on the card today, Joe, at 2.30.
24:35We take a look at Gavin Williams on the last 30 days.
24:38He's also had five starts, 27 and a third innings pitched.
24:41A manageable 3.29 ERA, but a little bit higher on that XFIP number at a 4.77,
24:48which could get you into the danger zone.
24:49But then again, the danger zone is this ballpark.
24:52And against a San Francisco lineup that typically underwhelms.
24:55However, they've been decent, Joe, against right-handed pitching.
24:58Devers, Ramos, Dominic Smith, and Casey Schmidt all have high ISO power numbers
25:02and weighted on base percentages for me.
25:05I take a look at this.
25:05The only way I could look is, okay, Don, you got to give me a money line slide.
25:08It would be San Francisco.
25:09I think you have the better lineup and the better pitcher.
25:11And you're at home today.
25:12Yeah, listen, Webb has always been bet on at home.
25:18And it's probably a little bit cheaper given the fact that, you know,
25:21they haven't exactly been crushing the ball at this point.
25:24So, yeah, it would only be Giants for me in this one.
25:28Yeah, open that number at 7.
25:30Now sitting at 7.5 in the total.
25:31We'll see if it gets there.
25:32But again, Webb, that minus 160 or so price is high as minus 181 out there
25:37in the betting landscape.
25:37I do think San Francisco handles their business and maybe Raphael Devers
25:41hits his first home run in a Giants uniform.
25:44We'll find out certainly a little bit later today.
25:46More baseball effects.
25:49More Major League Baseball to end out.
25:50Hour number two right here on the early line.
25:53It's on the right side.
25:53It's Joe Ranieri at SiriusXM Channel 159.
25:56It is the Sports Grid Network getting ready for an exciting day,
25:58which includes game number six of the NBA Finals
26:01and a lot of afternoon Major League Baseball action.
26:04And that doesn't stop up in the six north of the border here.
26:08That's Arizona and Toronto.
26:10Nelson versus Gaussman on the mound today.
26:13925, 926 on the rotation.
26:15A 3.07 start.
26:16This total opened up at 8.5.
26:18Still sits across the board here at the Fan Blue Sports,
26:20but concluded at 8.5.
26:22And a total, excuse me, the side, 146 at the opening number.
26:25We're now sitting live, as you see on the graphic, at a minus 142 price.
26:29Nelson, Gaussman, north of the border today, Joe, 3.07.
26:33Evan, any thoughts from you here on this one?
26:35Tough to get in front of Toronto at home here.
26:40Tough to also sweat out and under here.
26:44I mean, they won 5-4 in the first game, 8-1 yesterday.
26:49And now we're still looking at a total of 8.5.
26:52I don't trust Nelson at all.
26:54And I do think Arizona's bats will come alive a little bit in this one.
26:59If it ain't broke, don't fix it, because Toronto is more than capable of putting up eight runs again in this game here.
27:06I like them against that Arizona bullpen.
27:08I'll take the over.
27:09Here's what's interesting, too, because it's one of those games you might want to check to see if the roof is open.
27:14Now, granted, it's a dome stadium, so it doesn't have all those, you know, airways to get through and blow around.
27:18But there is 17-mile-an-hour winds expected to be blowing out to right field and 71-degree temperatures.
27:24So you would hope that roof is open.
27:25So if there's any push and you like the over, maybe that warning track fly ball to right field actually ends up in the seats here.
27:32You take a look at the pitching matchup.
27:33Ryan Nelson on the mound, 23-and-two-thirds innings pitched over the past month for him through four starts.
27:38That equated to a 3.04 ERA and a 420 XF number.
27:42Not too bad.
27:43Gausman is the better pitcher on the mound.
27:45You take a look at Gausman here, 30-and-two-thirds innings pitched over five starts, a 3.23 ERA and a 320 XF number.
27:52And you're right about it.
27:53You finally look.
27:53We've been waiting, right?
27:54Like, hey, man, give us some interesting stuff here on Toronto at the plate.
27:58And some bars are doing well.
28:00Vadebe Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Andres Jimenez.
28:03Some guys that are doing damage, along with Bo Bichette, who's having a pretty good month as well.
28:07We'll see about Ryan Nelson.
28:08Here's the problem with Ryan Nelson, right, in Major League Baseball pitching.
28:11If you don't strike out a lot of batters, that ball's in play.
28:14Good things typically don't happen to the defense.
28:16Better things happen to the offense.
28:17His K-Ratio over the past month, that's 95 batters, only 13%.
28:22That ball's in play.
28:23Certainly could do some damage here on the side for Toronto.
28:26And again, we'll find out if that roof is open, and maybe some of that air can be pushed out into the right field seats.
28:32If we keep moving down the list, game of the day, I don't know.
28:35At least it's the starting game of the day.
28:361240 start today, right off the bat.
28:38Minnesota and Cincinnati.
28:40We told you, last night, Ellie De La Cruz, bobblehead night, forced this game in.
28:45Since they ended up beating the Minnesota Twins here today.
28:47The favorite here, how about this?
28:49It's Paddock and Martinez.
28:51Overnight, minus 126 favorite at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
28:53That's now shifted here to a favorite towards the Reds, as you see on the graphic, at a minus 112 price.
28:59The total in this game, which opened up at 9, still sits at 9.
29:02If we're looking at the weather forecast, which yesterday was heavy thunderstorms and rain,
29:07take a look at this, Joe.
29:07To start the game, rain and drizzle before becoming clear in the afternoon.
29:1276 degree temperatures, but you've got to like this, Joe.
29:1514 to 15 mile an hour winds blowing out in Great American Ballpark today.
29:20You've got to like that.
29:20Yeah, well, you've got to like the ability for runs to come.
29:25And I think they will, especially Chris Paddock pitching, who does nothing but throw fly balls.
29:31And given the fact that the Reds, I believe, nearly almost a 120 WRC plus against righties over the last month,
29:38they've actually started to hit like we thought they would.
29:42And we know the Great American Ballpark is all about the runs here.
29:47Twins, I think, could be in trouble in this one.
29:49I don't know that I'd look to back them.
29:51They don't have another day off, I think, until the end of the month, June 30th, maybe even July 1st.
29:57So they've got to be careful.
29:59Maybe Paddock has to stay in a little bit longer than usual today, which means runs are coming over for me.
30:07Yeah, it's an interesting one, too, because you look at the statistics, right?
30:09Game started off last night very good for Minnesota Bucs and in a long home run.
30:13You take a look at, again, the temperatures, warmer weather here.
30:16Maybe you get through those raindrops here to start this game.
30:18Maybe there's a slight delay here and they play the rest of the way out.
30:20But Nick Martinez, his last five starts over the past month, 28 and two-thirds innings pitch, a 440 ERA, which is high.
30:27But his XF number, Joe, even higher at a 4.98.
30:31If we take a look at the lineup that we're anticipating today in this game, you look at Paddock, we talked about him.
30:35I'll get to him in just a second.
30:36But Nick Martinez to right-handed batters, 56 that he's faced over the past month, a 294 ISO power number and a 380 weighted on base percentage.
30:45You look at the lineup today, seven out of the nine batters for the Minnesota Twins, all positive with weighted on base percentage against right-handed pitching.
30:53Could we get some energy in the ballpark right away in that one?
30:57You might find out.
30:58We'll see what Chris Paddock certainly has to offer as well.
31:00But that'll do it for our number two.
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