- 4 months ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 01/10/2025.
Storm Amy hits this Friday night bringing impacts to the north of the UK in particular. But what happens next?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
Storm Amy hits this Friday night bringing impacts to the north of the UK in particular. But what happens next?
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend.
00:03Earlier in the day, at the time of recording, the Met Office named Storm Amy, the first
00:07named storm of the autumn and the first storm to come from this season's new storm naming
00:13list.
00:14That's going to bring impacts to many parts, particularly northern parts of the UK on Friday
00:20night.
00:21But before Amy arrives, well, we've got some heavy rain to deal with in some parts of the
00:26UK, but not all.
00:27There's a strong north-west-south-east gradient across the country at the moment, and that's
00:31because there's a weather front sitting over north-west Scotland, but it's aligned with
00:36the isobars and the jet stream, and so it's not being pushed through.
00:41It's basically what we call waving across the country.
00:44That means that it's ebbing and flowing.
00:46It's bringing pulses of heavy rain on and off through the next few days.
00:52We've seen that during the last couple of days, and we're going to continue to see that weather
00:55front just wriggling across the far north-west of the UK during Thursday.
01:00And after the rain does ease off a little overnight, we start Thursday with another pulse of very
01:05wet weather pushing into Ireland, Northern Ireland, and then Western Scotland by the
01:10afternoon.
01:11And in fact, the afternoon is looking particularly unpleasant for Northern Ireland, for Western
01:15Scotland.
01:16Breezy, heavy, and persistent rain.
01:18And that rain really mounting up.
01:20We've seen some very wet weather so far this week, in Western Scotland in particular.
01:24And over the next couple of days, we'll continue to see 50 to 80 millimetres adding up over
01:29some of the most exposed hills of Western Scotland.
01:32Yellow rain warning in force for that.
01:34Some outbreaks of rain to the north and the east of Scotland on and off.
01:37One or two spots for Western England and Wales.
01:40A lot of cloud here, but some brightness for the Midlands and the South-Eastern.
01:44Where we get that brightness, we'll see temperatures reach the high teens, low 20s.
01:49But the rain does finally move through.
01:51Later Thursday, it pushes across the whole of the UK.
01:54So a soggy night for many, some heavy rain for a time before most places start off a little
02:00quieter on Friday, although we've still got some heavy bursts of rain clearing East Anglia
02:05and the South-East.
02:06A very mild night to come across the UK.
02:08A stark contrast for the South, where we've had some chilly mornings this week.
02:12Which is the difference if you step out the door on Friday morning, temperatures of 14
02:16or 15 Celsius.
02:18As that system clears through, already hot on the heels, we've got storm Amy.
02:23Now to understand how Amy's going to affect the UK and some of the uncertainties involved
02:29with Amy, we need to rewind the clock to the time of recording.
02:33Midday on Wednesday.
02:35And Amy not existing at this point.
02:38But we do have, on the other side of the Atlantic, two hurricanes close to each other and interacting
02:44with each other, in fact.
02:45Some of the energy from Umberto transferring into Imelda, for example.
02:51And actually, in the next few hours, during Wednesday afternoon, Umberto will quickly diminish.
02:59But the remnants from Umberto will form a new low, which will move into the North Atlantic
03:05and get picked up by a very powerful jet stream, which is coming out of North America.
03:10That's going to allow it to be swept up in this westerly Atlantic airflow and move towards
03:16the UK.
03:17But at the same time, Amy then transfers to the north of the jet stream, which is the cold
03:22side.
03:23It's going to spin up very rapidly.
03:25Lots of isobars added to the center of this low.
03:29And by the time we get to Friday evening, it's bearing down upon the UK as a very deep
03:33area of low pressure.
03:34Now, if you've been watching some of our videos this week on YouTube, you'll know that
03:38in Alex Deacon's week ahead and his deep dive, he talks about some of the uncertainties
03:42about the track of Amy, although it wasn't called Amy at that point.
03:48And those uncertainties stemmed from, of course, the complex interaction between Umberto and
03:54Imelda, the remnants from Umberto then being swept up by the jet stream and this explosive
03:59deepening we're seeing.
04:01And remarkably, we do have reasonably good agreement at this stage by, in terms of where Amy will
04:07be sitting on Friday evening.
04:10Now, this is the METALFIS model run, but if I switch to the European model control run,
04:16it's shown something very similar, a deep area of low pressure, just to the northwest
04:20of the UK.
04:21Now, the European model isn't just run once, it's run many times.
04:25We have a deterministic run, there's a control run, and then there are 50 ensemble members,
04:30each of which are tweaked very slightly at the start to see how those differences at the
04:34start could escalate into much larger differences later on.
04:38And this is the control run, but if I put on the track for Amy from all those 50 or so members,
04:46you can see that actually there's not great agreement.
04:50They're all roughly to the northwest of the UK, but there is a bit of spread developing
04:53by this stage, all from a similar starting point, then they start to diverge.
04:57And that divergence is not just in terms of the track, but the depth of the low.
05:03If we put on the depth of Storm Amy, these are going to be coloured up in terms of the
05:08depth of the low.
05:10And you can see the key there on the right, the different colours representing how deep
05:15the low could be.
05:16The blues represent a more typical depth for low pressure.
05:20And then the yellows, oranges and reds are representing very deep areas of low pressure.
05:26So you can see that Amy starts off fairly typical in terms of its depth.
05:31And then as it approaches the UK, we get more and more of these yellows and oranges.
05:34And by the time we get to Friday night, there's a bit more divergence in the track, but perhaps
05:41more significantly, there is some divergence in the depth.
05:44And that all comes down to how it's interacting with the jet stream during the latter half of
05:48Friday, how much the jet stream can spin it up.
05:51And that comes down to very subtle differences in the timing in which Umberto gets picked
05:56up by the cold side of the jet stream.
05:58So by the time we get to 3am Saturday, some reasonable differences in the depth, about
06:0410 hectopascals or so.
06:05And that ultimately will lead to subtle differences and uncertainties in terms of the peak wind
06:12strength.
06:13So we're not quite there in terms of having nailed the peak wind speeds for Storm Amy, but we've
06:18got a reasonable idea of where the strongest winds will occur and the rough values we can
06:23expect.
06:24And this graphic here shows the Met Office model, Storm Amy, crossing the north of the
06:28UK, bringing a broad sway, the 50 to 60 mph wind gusts across Western North Wales into
06:34Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, in some exposed spots more than 60 mph.
06:40But the most exposed spots and the strongest winds likely to experience wind gusts of 70 or
06:4680 mph and that's at the moment looking likely to affect the north and northwest of Scotland.
06:53Yellow warnings for wind are in force for Northern Ireland, North Wales, parts of Northern England
06:57and much of Scotland.
06:59Because those kinds of wind gusts as they move through during Friday night and peak during
07:05the early hours before Amy slowly pulls away on Saturday.
07:09Those kinds of winds could cause disruption to transport, power supplies, dangerous conditions
07:15around coasts with large waves and flying debris.
07:19And it's not just the wind, it's the rain as well.
07:23We're going to see another spell of heavy rain.
07:25Now this is Friday.
07:26It's a fine day for many parts of the UK.
07:28After that first system clears, we've got some bright weather through the Midlands, eastern
07:33England, eastern Scotland.
07:34But soon enough, it turns cloudy in the west, rain pushing into Northern Ireland initially
07:40during Friday afternoon.
07:41And that rain turning heavier and more persistent across many parts of the UK.
07:46But particularly again, Scotland, western Scotland seeing another bout of potentially impactful
07:51rainfall risk of localised flooding.
07:54But the impacts from storm Amy not necessarily just confined to the north of the UK.
08:01We're also likely to see a very active weather front topple south-eastwards during the early
08:06hours of Saturday across much of England and Wales.
08:09You can just about make it out, it's a very thin line of intense rainfall, something we
08:14call line convection.
08:15There's a Met Office video on our YouTube channel that explains how line convection works.
08:20But this will basically be a spell, a short spell of 15 minutes, half an hour or so of
08:26very intense rain accompanied by really quite gusty winds.
08:30So some very lively weather in a brief spell of time during the early hours of Saturday
08:35as that active weather front clears through.
08:38Peak winds as I mentioned in the far north and north-west occurred during the early hours
08:41of Saturday.
08:42Then all of that's pushed through.
08:44It's a soggy start to the south-east.
08:47Showers, blustery showers quickly moving into the north and north-west of the UK.
08:52A relatively mild night but not feeling very pleasant first thing because we've got this
08:55strong wind.
08:57And these frequent showers moving through heavy downpours, perhaps some rumbles of
09:00thunder as well.
09:02Some of these downpours turning more persistent once again across the north and north-west,
09:06arriving in bands.
09:07In between, some bright spells in the south in particular but yeah, it's going to feel
09:11a bit cooler on Saturday I think because we've got this strong north-westerly breeze.
09:16Then overnight those showers keep on coming.
09:18So frequent downpours, particularly in the north and the west, a little drier and clearer
09:23with winds eventually coming down after a very blustery day.
09:27And by the time we get to Sunday morning, well, temperatures again in the double figures
09:33fairly widely.
09:34But a brighter start to Sunday across England and Wales.
09:37And all in all, if we skip ahead to the afternoon, it's a little quieter but it's not
09:41entirely settled.
09:42We've got this westerly breeze, quite blustery in the north-west again, spells of rain, mostly
09:49light to moderate and a lot of cloud cover, best chance of any brighter spells towards
09:54the south-east.
09:55So, an unsettled weekend, very windy on Saturday and cool, still feeling cool on Sunday, a little
10:01less windy but a lot of cloud cover and showers or longer spells of rain.
10:07Now, this westerly breeze we keep as we start next week, if we zoom out, we can see high
10:14pressure sitting to the south, low pressure now well to the north, Amy's gone away, we've
10:19got the jet stream sitting to the north of the UK, Hurricane Imelda just milling about
10:24as an ex-hurricane and unlikely to affect the UK actually, it's most likely just to fizzle
10:30away in the mid-Atlantic.
10:33And Monday itself and into Tuesday we keep this westerly dominated airflow which on this
10:38probability plot, this shows each day for the next two weeks the most likely weather
10:43patterns affecting the UK, they're all coloured up and you can see westerly dominated the dark
10:47blue, most likely on Monday into Tuesday, perhaps Wednesday as well.
10:51So very similar weather patterns, nothing particularly stormy or really unsettled but generally a westerly
10:58flavour for the start of next week and into Tuesday and in fact Wednesday we'll continue to see this
11:06westerly flavour with spells of rain for the west and north-west of the UK in particular, perhaps again
11:12causing some issues for Western Scotland. But drier to the south and the south-east and it is expected to
11:20eventually turn drier later next week more widely across the UK with a better chance of higher
11:29pressure starting to build in. This is the most likely weather pattern for Wednesday, again you can see
11:34the blues here they represent above average rainfall for Western Scotland but the browns here represent below
11:40average rainfall as higher pressure starts to move in to the south and that's more likely or more
11:47represented in these second and third most likely weather patterns with higher pressure building in
11:52a bit sooner but whichever way you look at it that higher pressure becomes increasingly dominant in the
11:59model output for later next week. This is the most likely weather pattern for Friday, high pressure
12:04firmly there across the south of the UK, browns more widely across the country indicating below average
12:10rainfall by this stage for the time of year and similar for the second and third most likely
12:15weather patterns with high pressure sitting just to the south or the west of the UK. In fact this is
12:21from the control member of the European model once again for Saturday the 11th of October and I just
12:27show this because this shows high pressure in place across the UK so drier much more settled much
12:33calmer perhaps some misty mornings and so on but plenty of sunny spells if this came off but
12:39perhaps of more note here are the tracks of low pressure hardly any affecting the UK so this comes
12:46from 50 tracks of low pressure for the second half of next week and it just shows most of them to the
12:52north most of them not particularly deep and most of them avoiding the UK so yes after storm Amy blows
13:01through it's going to remain very changeable very mixed for a few days before eventually higher pressure
13:07starts to build in from the south
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