00:00The two big talking points with the weather this summer so far has been how hot it's been at times
00:05and how dry it's been for many places as well.
00:08A bit of a change is on the cards through the next 10 days with regards to both of those,
00:13one I'm a bit more confident about than the other.
00:16So let's start off looking at the temperatures. Here is the picture that we have for this Thursday.
00:22Yes, there's some hefty, showery rain across parts of Scotland, particularly towards the north and west.
00:27Also some showers for western parts of Northern Ireland, but most areas, especially across England and Wales, having a dry
00:33day and lots of sunshine on offer.
00:36We're also dragging in our air from the south. And so you are probably aware, but we do have an
00:41amber extreme heat warning out across central and eastern parts of England for this Thursday.
00:47That's because temperatures here could reach highs of around 36, 37, possibly 38 Celsius.
00:54Now, when you get these sort of high temperatures, well, that's when we could see impacts to our infrastructure, our
00:59railway lines, our roads.
01:01They're not designed for this sort of heat.
01:03And more people are likely to be impacted by how hot it is with regards to their health.
01:10Now, when we're looking at temperatures of 37, 38 Celsius, well, it could be the hottest day of the year
01:16so far if we get above 38.
01:17And if we get above 38.5, well, it could be the hottest August day on record.
01:22But that's actually pretty unlikely.
01:25Fortunately, humidity across parts of central eastern England, not as high as it has been through some recent heat waves.
01:33So perhaps not feeling as oppressive as some of the heat earlier on in the summer.
01:38But nonetheless, it is still going to be very hot.
01:40And further north and west, whilst temperatures will be a bit low, actually a bit lower than through today for
01:46some places,
01:46it is actually a bit more humid for some places here and still very warm, if not hot,
01:52with temperatures widely in the mid to high 20s, if not low 30s, even away from that heat warning area.
01:59Now, the hot air that's across us currently, that is going to clear away.
02:03There's a frontal system towards the west.
02:05That's actually going to decay as it comes across us, not bring a huge amount of rain.
02:08I'll touch on rain in a second.
02:10But it does bring that fresher air in from the west.
02:13Now, southeastern parts will cling on to that hot air through Friday.
02:16But I'm not expecting temperatures here to be as high as on Thursday.
02:20Nonetheless, still hot with low to possibly mid 30s, perhaps.
02:23Elsewhere, we're seeing that fresher air coming in.
02:25And that fresher air will be more widespread by the weekend when temperatures will be, well, much, much closer to
02:32average.
02:32If we look at temperatures, let's take London, for example.
02:35Here's our ECMWF graph showing what we're expecting through the next week or so.
02:41And you can see, yes, we have this peak in the heat as we go through Wednesday, Thursday,
02:46with temperatures getting to the mid, possibly high 30s.
02:50Friday is still a hot day.
02:51And then we see that marked drop down between Friday and Saturday.
02:56Now, further north and west, that drop down will happen a bit earlier.
02:59But between Friday and Saturday, that's when we're really going to see the end of the exceptional heat for the
03:05time being.
03:06Thereafter, through the weekend and through next week, well, actually, temperatures, if anything, look like they'll dip a little bit.
03:11There's obviously quite a widespread when you're looking more than a week ahead.
03:16But there aren't really many signs that we're going to see the return of anything exceptionally hot for a little
03:22while yet, at least.
03:24And, yeah, so if anything, really, temperatures are set to stay around average.
03:29Some places a little bit below, some places a little bit above, but only a little bit above average compared
03:34to what we've had through so much of this summer.
03:36Well, that's, if anything, going to feel a bit fresh for some of us.
03:41And then let's get on to the rain.
03:43I'm less confident about the change to something a bit wetter compared to how confident I am about the change
03:49to something a bit fresher.
03:50The fresher theme looks pretty certain.
03:54The wetter weather, well, that's a little bit trickier to pinpoint.
03:58So, Friday, I mentioned there's a front coming through.
04:01That's going to bring some showery outbreaks of rain, perhaps.
04:05But further showers coming in from the northwest through this weekend.
04:09Can't rule out some showers in the southeast on Saturday, but a bit of uncertainty about that.
04:14But showers could come in from Saturday.
04:17Sunday now actually looks like a largely dry day.
04:20It didn't earlier on in the week.
04:22Earlier on in the week, we were likely to see a weather system coming in.
04:25This feature here, that's now been delayed compared to a few days ago.
04:30So, actually, now, for many of us, Sunday, another largely dry day.
04:34Fresher, like I've shown you, but still often fine and sunny.
04:37But we want to draw the attention to this feature.
04:41As I highlighted, there's been some model discrepancies, some flip-flopping between the models as to how this is going
04:48to develop, how this is going to push in.
04:50So, let's see what's actually happening.
04:52Now, we have the jet stream, and that's running across the Atlantic, more across the UK, really, through this weekend
04:59and into next week, compared to what we've seen through much of this summer, really.
05:03But it's how this low-pressure system develops and interacts with the jet stream, which plays a pivotal role with
05:10how impactful it is going to be weather-wise for the UK.
05:13Now, there were signs that it would really be invigorated majorly by the jet stream, would develop quite intensely, and
05:20we'd end up with a fairly tight low-pressure system quite close to the UK by Sunday, by Monday, perhaps.
05:27But if we look at the most recent model setup, and it sticks on the colder, the northern side of
05:33the jet, but it doesn't really get to that left exit region, and so it doesn't intensify as rapidly as
05:40some earlier models really wanted to, and then it takes it up a bit further north.
05:44Nonetheless, there will be, or there is likely to be, some wet weather associated with it that will sweep its
05:51way southeastwards across the country through the start of next week.
05:55Some uncertainty about the timing of this.
05:58Some models, EC, for example, is a bit slower bringing this wet weather in, so it might be later Monday,
06:04more into Tuesday.
06:05This is our Met Office global model, our current one that I'm showing you here.
06:09But just to reiterate, there has been some discrepancy between recent model runs about how much rain we see and
06:15how quickly it pushes through.
06:17Also worth highlighting, there could be some heavier bursts in it.
06:20There could be some relatively big convection along the front as it comes across, and so do watch out for
06:28that.
06:28But even if this comes through, even if this rain, which we have highlighted in recent weeks, we've highlighted some
06:35rain coming through, and then it's never really amounted to much.
06:38So I definitely can't guarantee that this will occur.
06:40But even if it does, well, it looks like it could rattle through quite quickly.
06:44Even any heavier bursts, well, they should be relatively short-lived in any individual place.
06:50So this type of rain, it's not going to be enough to help really alleviate the drought conditions across many
06:57parts of the UK.
06:58We need some really significant, persistent rain.
07:02And this looks like, whilst it could be a bit persistent at times, it will just move through.
07:06And if anything, a lot of that rain will just run off the especially dry ground and won't be able
07:12to be absorbed, which is what we really need.
07:15Looking further ahead through next week.
07:17So yes, it could get off to a bit of an unsettled start, a wetter start than what we've had
07:22through much of this summer.
07:23And then what happens?
07:24Well, I've got two ECMWF members here, the control and then member two, because they paint a slightly different picture
07:31for what could happen as we go through next week.
07:34If we look at both of them, start off with a similar idea, this high pressure to the southwest of
07:38the UK.
07:38But how that high pressure builds varies between the two.
07:42So member two has that high pressure building in quite quickly before another area of low pressure pushes its way
07:49in.
07:49And a relatively deep area of low pressure could bring some more changeable, unsettled weather, some wetter, windier weather perhaps,
07:56towards the northwest of the UK in particular.
07:58And then as any fronts come across, you would expect a fair amount of rain at times.
08:03However, the control model hints that there could be some showery rain coming and going perhaps.
08:09But it sticks with generally high pressure dominating mainly towards the west of us.
08:14I mean, if we have that west of the UK, then we'd be dragging in our air from the north.
08:17So it won't be especially warm or hot for the time of year.
08:20But it doesn't look like it will be as wet as this member here.
08:25And, well, I looked at a number of the members I just picked two here.
08:28But they're fairly, well, there's a lot of variety.
08:32It's quite a messy setup with what's going to happen next week.
08:36So when we see a messy setup, it's a bit different to what we've had through much of the summer.
08:41Often at this summer, yes, there have been hints of rain that's not really happened.
08:44But a lot of the models have been in agreement that we'll have this high pressure.
08:48We'll have a lot of dry weather.
08:49And that's a bit of a change now for what we're expecting through next week.
08:53And I've got our meteograms from ECMWF.
08:55I just picked Leeds as somewhere relatively central in the country because this meteogram looks a bit different to what
09:02we've seen through much of this summer, really.
09:04I mean, I've already highlighted temperatures, but you can see, yes, it's hot through Thursday.
09:09But through Friday and into the weekend, temperatures drop down and then they're much nearer average for the time of
09:15year.
09:15I didn't mention it, but some places will have tropical nights through the next few nights.
09:19We see that chance disappearing through the weekend because it will be markedly fresher both by day and by night.
09:25But let's look at cloud amount.
09:27Instead of it being largely sunny, as it will be for the next couple of days, it's, you know, it's
09:32not necessarily totally cloudy, not totally overcast.
09:36But there will perhaps be a bit more cloud around than we've seen through much of this summer.
09:41And then importantly, let's look at that rainfall amount.
09:44Not a huge amount of rain to come through this weekend.
09:47But Monday, Tuesday, yes, a wetter spell looks relatively likely.
09:53Worth noting, these rainfall totals aren't especially high.
09:56But if we compare it to what we've had through recent weeks, well, it's a fair chunk more.
10:01And then thereafter, there's a large spread.
10:04So I definitely can't guarantee that there will be a significant amount of rain.
10:09It doesn't really look likely that there will be a huge amount of rain, enough to really help with the
10:15ongoing issues with how dry it has been.
10:18But there are at least signs that there will be some rain at times.
10:22It could be quite sherry in nature.
10:24It could be a bit more persistent, depending on how any low pressure systems come off.
10:28But at least there are some relatively promising signs that it's not going to be just as dry as it
10:35has been across many parts of the UK.
10:37So I'm more confident about things turning fresher by the weekend and staying with temperatures around average for the time
10:44of year through the rest of the 10-day period.
10:46Rainful amounts, well, probably wetter than it has been, but probably not wet enough to help for many people.
10:52I'll see you again soon. Bye-bye.
10:55I'll see you again soon.
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