00:04Everyone. Which screen is it that I'm wanting to share? This one, I think. Yep. Right.
00:12So a bit more going on today and we do indeed have some warnings out at the moment. So a
00:16bit
00:16to talk about. This is the situation as of now, low pressure to the northwest of the UK, lovely
00:22curl of cloud around that. So this is a slow moving occlusion over the far north of Scotland,
00:27quite fragmented at the moment, gradually sinking south over the next few hours and providing a focus
00:31for some heavy shower development in northeast Scotland. Elsewhere, other shower bands wrapping
00:36around that. We've got one area of heavy showers moving across Northern Ireland and into parts of
00:42Western Scotland now, which will provide another focus for heavy showers in the next few hours
00:47before some just kind of general daytime development over Northern Ireland once that clears. And then
00:53further south, plenty of sunny spells in the short term for England. The whale shower is mostly
00:57confined to Western areas. But we do have this area of rain in the far southeast, which is a frontal
01:05wave that developed last night. I'm not quite in the position where we expected it to. Yesterday,
01:09we were saying that that should stay off the south coast. It didn't. But that's on its way out now.
01:16So it's not been terribly well handled by models. I think the latest UK V runs are doing okay with
01:20it.
01:21But that's providing still a few millimetres of rain across south of England until it clears early
01:28afternoon. Worth noting that some of that rain fell at Wisley, which ends the ridiculously long streak
01:35of dry days. I think it was up to 62 days without rain. That's now over. It has rained in
01:40the early
01:40hours of this morning. Or sort of, yeah, since this morning, at least, to finish that one there.
01:47That's quite remarkable, really. Elsewhere, as we go through the day, if I show you the evolution
01:53through the next few hours, there's that wave in the south. This is at 12, so one o'clock low.
01:58Of course,
01:58that's on its way out by that time, although the GM has got it in the wrong place. So it
02:02may not have
02:02cleared quite as much as that looks like. I wanted to highlight this other kind of plume of slightly
02:08warmer air across England, Wales at this time. Because although there's not much going on at the moment,
02:14this is likely to destabilise as we go through the afternoon and provide a focus kind of for a line
02:21of heavy showers, thunderstorms gradually moving east across the country. Not entirely sure how
02:26many of those there will be. But where they do develop, there's the potential for a bit of hail
02:31and thunder and some locally heavy rain, but everything should be moving through. And still a
02:36good deal of sunny spells for most of England and Wales. The areas we're more interested in from an
02:41impacts point of view are, like I say, Northern Ireland and Scotland today, and then Northern
02:48England and North Wales overnight, and perhaps more widely England and Wales tomorrow. So if I show you
02:54the current warning situation, this is what we've got at the moment. The one in Northern Ireland kicks
03:01in in 45 minutes or so and runs through to the end of the day. It's a combination of the
03:06sort of the
03:07occlusion band of showers running through now and then some locally generated ones later. A little
03:12bit marginal. It's the medium of low sort of box. We were debating whether or not it was needed
03:20at all. But I think the combination of quite a lot of heavy showers, repetitious heavy showers,
03:25some lightning, some hail, possible means it's better to have it there than not. So that one's there.
03:31We also have a similar one for parts of North East Scotland. This is where that occlusion I mentioned
03:38right at the beginning comes south stalls and provides a focus for some local shower development
03:43there. The main thing about this is they're going to be pretty slow moving. It's not too far from the
03:46low
03:47centre. An interaction with the orography may allow some higher totals to build up in a few places. So same
03:54box position for that one. Again, a little bit marginal maybe, but you know, colleagues,
04:01responders were keen to have something out there more widely across Scotland, kind of western
04:05southern Scotland, including the central belt. We'll also see some pretty heavy showers and potential
04:10for some impacts. But the sinking this morning was the likelihood of seeing impacts is just that
04:16little bit lower for those areas. So we're kind of imagining it's in this grey box. If we could do
04:20a
04:20just sub-warning kind of area, that's where it's sitting for the rest of southern and western
04:24Scotland. It's not going to escape the showers completely, but those two areas were thought to
04:30be the focus. And then finally, for the time being, at least we've got this one for Northern England
04:37and North Wales, which doesn't start until this evening and runs through until tomorrow morning.
04:42And that's because as the low centre moves kind of south-eastwards through this afternoon and
04:50evening, we get an area of slack flow, deep instability, slack flow, bit of surface convergence.
04:58And you know, the Irish Sea is pretty warm. This is 18 Celsius plus in here, which is quite
05:04capable of continuing to generate thunderstorm sea bees overnight, even as the land temperatures
05:10drop away. So we've had a fairly consistent signal. Where's my internet gone? We've had a fairly
05:15consistent signal for areas of rain in here overnight. You can kind of see the idea that's
05:22running through this evening into tonight. Some pretty heavy showers kind of just lasting right through
05:28the night. And if I put on rainfall totals, that's 12 hour totals until 10 o'clock tomorrow morning.
05:37It's not the whole period of the one, but it gives you an idea. There's a bit of a focus
05:42in there and particular concern perhaps for some of the areas directly downwind of the Irish Sea Coast.
05:52Sort of Liverpool area has long been signalled for some locally higher totals.
05:59That's the probability of 20 millimetres in six hours on the top row. We're looking at the middle one
06:04for the overnight period and 30 millimetres in six hours on the bottom row. And you can see some of
06:08the areas downwind of the Irish Sea Coast have quite strongly signalled for higher totals there.
06:14It's worth noting, away from the warning area, some other parts of Wales, West Wales and downwind of
06:20the Bristol Channel as well may see some pretty high totals building up overnight. Two small kind of
06:26areas to be included in the warning. But again, sea temperatures in the Bristol Channel are over 20
06:30Celsius at the moment. It's ridiculous. So we may well see a continued feed of showers in from
06:35there overnight too. So that is kind of where we are with those warnings overnight.
06:45Of the three of them. I lost my internet again. Where's it gone? Apologies. Of the three,
06:53that's not the right one. Of the three warnings, it's this one over North England, North Wales,
06:59I think is probably the most likely to see impacts and particularly for those areas. I've mentioned
07:05sort of kind of Liverpool, Manchester area, perhaps, though they are all kind of in the same category
07:11in the warnings matrix. But that's just kind of your information. It's confidence is slightly higher
07:17in that one than the other two. Beyond that, as we go through tomorrow, the low continues to make its
07:25way southeast. So at some point during the morning, that rain, heavy rain showers will start to die out
07:33in the northwest. And we may get a brief gap, we may not, probably not completely. But then for tomorrow,
07:38daytime, daytime heating, et cetera, means we're going to get showers breaking out more widely
07:44across England and Wales, central parts in particular. Some of those could be quite slow
07:47moving for parts of eastern England around the Wash, for example. So we may get some higher totals
07:53building up there, but a thunderstorm's likely possible pretty much anywhere in there. So some
07:58heavy showers for quite large parts of England and Wales through tomorrow daytime, perhaps not the far
08:04south central areas prone. We don't have any warnings for that at the moment. I suspect given the lack
08:11of organisation compared with today, we probably won't. But the timings are such that we can continue
08:17to think about that overnight and respond tomorrow if we need to. Beyond that, everything kind of clears
08:25out of the way. You see we've got a cooler northerly flow developing. So showers continuing overnight
08:31into Thursday, Friday, overnight to Friday around coastal areas where the sea temperatures remain
08:36high, but tending to die out inland overnight and generally turning a bit cooler as well. And then
08:42if I flip to the bigger picture beyond that, where are we? So that's yeah, Friday, end of Friday,
08:48some showers around again in the south Friday, perhaps even on Saturday in a few places. But broadly
08:55speaking, for the weekend, we're getting a ridge building in again, so drier conditions returning
09:00sunnier as well, albeit quite a lot cooler than it has been of late. And then moving into next week,
09:08there are indications, hints of more cyclonic conditions returning to some parts of the country,
09:14either the north or the south or both. But details on this, confidence on this is kind of low at
09:19the
09:19moment, plenty of time to respond to that as and when we need to. So I think that is all
09:25I want to
09:25say. Those are the main points. I will leave it there and hand back to Jonathan to take any questions.
Comments