- 12 hours ago
Philip Golingai sits down with Prof Dr Azmi Hassan of the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research to dissect the increasingly complex and contradictory state of Malaysian politics.
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00:05Hello everyone, today we're going to talk about politics and in the studio we have a fabulous
00:12guest, he is Dr Azmi Hassan of the Nusantara Academy. Dr Azmi, thanks for coming. Thank you
00:19Philip for inviting me. Okay and this is my, today I will have a certain team, see whether you can
00:27guess what's my team based on the question. My first question is this, it looks like we are
00:34moving into the politics of frenemy. I'll just give you my definition of frenemy. The definition is
00:40a frenemy is a political party or a coalition that is friendly with another party and
00:49coalition but at the same time they are also political rival. So they are like friend-friend
00:54but enemy. So what do you think? Yes I think that's the first time I'm, I heard about this
01:00particular term frenemy. Yes I think apparently it started in Johor but before that I think
01:09the frenemy is always there but it was never blatant. But during the campaign in Johor it
01:16is I think very blatant where yes we can be friends but during campaign we are trying to
01:24upgrade ourselves to show that ourselves is the best government and ourselves when I'm talking about
01:31ourselves it is Barisan National talking about they can govern the nation, they can govern the state
01:39solo, without any help. I think that's where the frenemy, I think it's very interesting Philip,
01:46where you can talk to each other even though at the national level we are friends, we should support
01:54each other at the national level but come during the Johor campaign it's all out there. So but sometimes
02:03it confused me whether they are pretending or what, whether they are serious when they are talking
02:08to each other, I'm not sure. So I think that's very interesting about Malaysian politics because
02:15at that particular, this particular time Philip, no one party can govern by itself. You never know in
02:22Johor after this, after this Saturday, Pakatan Harapan and Barisan National need to work together.
02:28You never know about that. So I think that's very interesting for this particular scenario of friend,
02:36enemy as you mentioned just now. You mentioned about Johor, so we go to into Johor. Johor,
02:42Barisan National, UMNO, they decided to go solo. Once they go into solo, meaning in the state,
02:48the enemy is Pakatan Harapan but their friend is Pakatan Harapan in the federal level. Yes. So to question now,
02:58it's the same question but what, is UMNO, BN, a true friend or a true enemy of Pakatan Harapan? And
03:07is
03:07Pakatan Harapan a true friend or a true enemy of Barisan National, UMNO? Yes, I know it can be applicable
03:16to your both questions.
03:18Yeah, but to answer your first question, yes, I think Barisan National, UMNO is a true friend.
03:24Why I'm saying that? They are not pretending that they want to go solo. And Pakatan Harapan also maybe caught
03:32them by surprise when one week before the dissolution of the state legislation,
03:40Dato Onn clarified that they want to go solo. They will be contesting 56 seats. At first, when I heard
03:49that particular announcement,
03:51I think, at first I think it's a snap because the next day will be the PKR convention. Maybe something
03:58that Dato Onn want to,
03:59you know, pull something about that. But I think after that we know that Dato Onn is very serious and
04:05Pakatan Harapan knew that UMNO is very serious
04:08by going solo. But no surprise there because they used the 2022 state election to bring it forward.
04:15So going solo is no surprise in Johor. But come Negus Milan is a totally different thing because they are
04:25the coalition,
04:26the state coalition. So it's going to be a surprise. It all depends on what happened in Johor, what the
04:31result will be.
04:33So I think it's going to be very interesting after Johor. Is there any frenemy in Negus Milan?
04:39Or maybe after that Melaka, same situation. UMNO is so confident that they will go solo.
04:46It's up after this Saturday. I think we look what's going to happen this Saturday.
04:51Okay. You went out of the state. You sudah pergi Negeri, you pergi Melaka. I drag back back to Johor
04:58dulu.
04:59But definitely those are the questions I'm going to ask you.
05:02Okay. In Johor, they are enemy, political enemy, Pakatan and Barisan. UMNO and what?
05:12But because of this enemy status, and then you can see that ada betikam lidah and everything,
05:20will they be, they are now friends in the federal level, the Madani government.
05:25Because of Johor, will they become enemy in the federal level, until it goyang, until friends will be fighting?
05:35No. UMNO president has stated it very clearly. I think many times he stated it.
05:40He will support Prime Minister Datuk Sri Anwar Ibrahim until the dissolution of parliament.
05:47I think that's very clear.
05:48I think when we use the term enemy in political terms, I think that's way too extreme.
05:57Because on the layman's view, when we say that when two politicians are going to each other,
06:06don't take example because it's going to be a very sensitive example of two politicians.
06:10Because in parliament, they can have tea together.
06:13Okay.
06:14Minum petang, sama-sama.
06:15So when we see as a layman, see, hey, these two politicians are enemy at a different side of the
06:22world.
06:22But they can have tea with each other.
06:24I think that's the reason because we use the term enemy in a very generalized term.
06:31So in politics, there is no permanent enemy, no permanent friend.
06:36Maybe there are other terms for enemy.
06:38I don't know.
06:39But I think when we use the term enemy, it clouded our minds.
06:44So yes, in Johor, let's say the Barisan National formed the state government by themselves.
06:49They got the majority.
06:51But at the federal level, I think they can still work each other.
06:56You see, during the campaign, Datuk, I think few ministers, Datuk Johari or Datuk Noraini,
07:02even the Deputy Prime Minister Zahid Amidi, when they are campaigning as if Pakatan Harapan is the real enemy.
07:12Yeah, it's the real enemy in Johor.
07:13But I think these ministers also need to work each other at the federal level.
07:18So I think there is a misconception when we say enemy at the Johor level.
07:23They just cannot work at the federal level.
07:26And I don't think so.
07:27It works in our types of politics, Philips.
07:30Okay, got it.
07:31In terms of prediction, tomorrow is election.
07:37Jesse, how will the outcome be and will it affect this government?
07:43This federal government, sorry.
07:45Yes, my prediction for the outcome is, I think you know my prediction where I stand.
07:50You don't know.
07:51I can predict, predict everything.
07:53Yeah, but as a national, we'll form the state government.
07:55Wow, I'm surprised.
07:57Yes, me too.
07:59Well, Philip, I'm a voter at N46.
08:02Oh, which city?
08:02Perling.
08:03Oh.
08:04It's a chintong.
08:05Okay, yeah.
08:05Okay.
08:06So you voted chintong in the last election?
08:09No.
08:10Okay, let me be honest about that.
08:12I voted for MC.
08:14I have no idea who's the candidate at that time.
08:16Okay.
08:16But I voted for MC.
08:18Okay, can I guess who you're going to vote tomorrow?
08:19Are you back to the country or tomorrow?
08:22I have a health issue.
08:24Okay.
08:24So you're not voting?
08:25Yeah, because I need to be straight.
08:29I had a heart attack three months ago.
08:31So I'm still recuperating.
08:33Okay.
08:33So no travel, long travel.
08:38When I'm talking, like Philip, you have to be easy on me.
08:41I'll ask the easy question.
08:43Okay.
08:44Where was I just now?
08:45I just forgot.
08:45Okay.
08:46No, no.
08:47You were interpelling.
08:48If you were voting, who will you have voted?
08:51Yeah, sure.
08:52I vote for the MIC candidate which represents Barisan National.
08:55But I'm surprised they dropped Chintong, put a very unknown new candidate for DAP.
09:03I'm quite surprised.
09:04But I will not be surprised if DAP retained that seat.
09:10Oh, okay.
09:10Because I've been in Perling for quite nearly 10 years there.
09:16But I never, when I moved to KL, I never changed my address.
09:20So I'm still a voter down there.
09:22But again, to answer your question, BN will form the government solo without the help of any other party, even
09:31PAS.
09:31I think PAS won't be invited, even though PAS helps a lot.
09:36So in this case, no, it will not muddle the relationship.
09:41Because as I said before, a number of the cabinet ministers from Barisan National heavily campaigning.
09:49When they campaign, somehow or other you have to criticize your enemy.
09:55And the enemy in this case, yes, it is Pakatan Harapan.
09:58Okay.
10:00Now we go to Negeri.
10:01Okay.
10:01In Negeri, there's also another classic case of frenemies.
10:07I just give you a very quick history of this frenemy.
10:11I shorten it a bit.
10:13Just say during the Tanshri Muhyiddin time as PM and also Ismail Sabri, they were friends.
10:22In the, they call it Muafakat government.
10:26Okay.
10:26So they were friends.
10:27But then come G15, they were enemy.
10:29Now in the Madani government, UMNO is in this Madani government.
10:36They're the enemy because of they're in the opposition.
10:40So from Jesse starting Muafakat time, they were friends.
10:45Enemy, enemy.
10:47And now Johor ni macam PAS ni nak berkawan.
10:50So what's the dynamic of this frenemy in Negeri Sembilan election?
11:00Yeah, yeah.
11:00Back to, before we go to Negeri Sembilan, in Johor, the frenemy term got really confused because of PAS.
11:08When PAS, the Tuan Ibrahim said that support UMNO candidate, Barisan national candidate, if there is no prikata national candidate,
11:17it really, I think it was a fake news at the first time.
11:20Oh, okay.
11:20But after checking, yeah, it's a real news, meaning that PAS really want to work together with UMNO, but not
11:31in Johor.
11:32I think the reason is that in Johor, UMNO felt that they are very formidable.
11:38You cannot be challenged.
11:39We are strong.
11:40I think that's the reason why they call an early election, because they want to use the positive momentum after
11:46this.
11:46And after this is Negeri Sembilan.
11:49And different thing about Negeri Sembilan is that, yes, the frenemy is more, I would say, confused because they are
11:56part of the state government.
11:58And also, to make it more interesting, Pakatan Harapan and Barisan national are on the same level, the strength, political
12:07strength.
12:08Even though, Pakatan Harapan has two extra seats, I think they are the same level.
12:14I think what PAS is trying to show is that, I don't need our help.
12:19And this can be known from the Johor result.
12:23When there is a Pakatan Harapan direct contest with Barisan national without PAS or Bersatu inside there,
12:30they will know the number of votes, how many go to Pakatan Harapan, how many from PAS transferred to Barisan
12:37national.
12:38So, I think what will happen is that, in Johor, Barisan national will not get the help from PAS to
12:46form the state government, even the ex-co position.
12:50But in Negeri Sembilan, PAS will say again, look at Johor, you need our help.
12:56In Negeri Sembilan, the strength of Pakatan Harapan and Barisan national is at the same level.
13:02So, last time, it was, I would say, you know, girlfriend gelap.
13:08Oh, what's that? Can I have one?
13:12But define the law, what is girlfriend gelap?
13:14Yeah, girlfriend gelap is that you have a girlfriend, a very implicit, nobody know about that.
13:19So, in Johor, PAS say that, yes, we are girlfriend gelap.
13:23Nobody knows about that, but you know what PAS is doing.
13:28But in Negeri Sembilan, you cannot have the gelap anymore.
13:31You need to work with us, openly.
13:35I think that's what will happen in Negeri Sembilan, after the Johor state election.
13:39So, from girlfriend gelap in Johor, what's your prediction between PAS and UMNO in Negeri?
13:46Girlfriend lah.
13:47Yeah, they will be girlfriend, but still depend on in Johor.
13:51If, let's say, that BN won landslide, then BN say, no, no, we don't need your help.
13:58Okay, so...
13:59If they win more than two-thirds, more than 40.
14:01So, based on what you're saying, we do not know who are friend, who are enemy, who are frenemies
14:06between Pakatan Harapan, Barisan National, and I use the word Perikatan National lah.
14:11At the moment, big question mark lah.
14:13Yeah.
14:14Tapi nomination day is coming soon lah.
14:15Yeah, nomination day is coming soon, but I think, in terms of probability, I think
14:20UMNO, Negeri Sembilan, would likely be more comfortable to work with PAS, compared to work
14:26with Pakatan Harapan.
14:28Because, if they want to work with Pakatan Harapan, the Menteri Besar Post, I'm sure
14:33will go to Pakatan Harapan again.
14:35Okay.
14:35Because, during the last election, Negeri Sembilan, when they formed the state government,
14:39UMNO said that they should have the Menteri Besar Post, even though there are two seats
14:44less, but they never got the post.
14:47So, I think they'll be more comfortable working with PAS in Negeri Sembilan.
14:53But still, I would say that I have a caveat there, depend on Johor result in this case.
14:59Okay.
14:59So, in this game of girlfriend gelap, just say between, for me, I see it lah.
15:04It is, I tambah your example.
15:08It's actually, it's between PAS and UMNO.
15:10Tapi, I feel the matchmaker is Wawasan.
15:13It's Wawasan President, that is Datuk Hamzah Zainuddin.
15:17So, what is their game, actually?
15:18What are they trying to do to UMNO?
15:20Is there like, is it Malay unity?
15:23Or is it to bring down Pakatan?
15:26Or to change the Prime Minister?
15:28What is the game?
15:29Well, the game, the short term game, the easy one that we can understand is that they want
15:36to eliminate DAP from the national political scenario and also from the state political
15:42scenario.
15:43That's their enemy.
15:44When you said Malay unity, yes, it is the Malay unity.
15:48And more interestingly, you said Wawasan just now.
15:51Now, why did not they contest in Johor?
15:55That really puzzled me.
15:56Is it some technical issue?
15:58I think some technical issue regarding the name Pati Wawasan.
16:02Because there is a Pati Wawasan Rakyat from Sarawak.
16:07Yes, from Sarawak.
16:08So, maybe there is a technical.
16:10And this technical issue will be resolved.
16:13Hopefully, will be resolved comes Negeri Semiland.
16:16So, maybe Wawasan will contest.
16:20If Wawasan will contest, Bersatu, like happened in Johor, they contest 33 seats.
16:26It won't be happening in Negeri Semiland because they have Wawasan to contest, to contend with.
16:32So, I think it's going to be very interesting.
16:35Wawasan and PAS is very, it's very strong combination from perception.
16:40We have no idea yet.
16:42But if Wawasan do jump in the contest in Negeri Semiland, I think there is some, the girlfriend gelap will
16:51become a girlfriend siang hari, something like that.
16:53Well, now, okay.
16:55Okay, just want to double check again.
16:59PAS and Wawasan ni, are they a true friend of UMNO?
17:03Ataupun true enemy of UMNO?
17:06Ataupun, yeah, I mean, can they be trusted?
17:09I think that's the word I'm using.
17:11Yeah, from the point of view, UMNO, because of what happened during Mufakat National 1.0, they will never trust
17:19PAS.
17:20Because, as UMNO said, PAS backstabbing.
17:24They said, agree during a meeting, but during announcement, Haji Adi Hawang said, the other way around.
17:31They want to work with Pakatan Harapat.
17:33So, I think Wawasan is, Hamzah Zanuddin is the number one enemy for UMNO.
17:40So, I think both PAS and Wawasan will be the enemy, but they can work with each other.
17:47If, and only if, UMNO is the dominant party.
17:52UMNO can control both PAS and Wawasan.
17:56As it is right now, it is PAS and Wawasan really need UMNO.
18:01That's where UMNO want to stand, not the other way around.
18:04So, in this case, yes, UMNO don't like, don't trust PAS and Wawasan, but they can work with each other.
18:12Because there is no DAP inside there.
18:14The more important thing is that UMNO is in the driver's seat.
18:18I think that's the most important thing.
18:21Okay, interesting.
18:24Now, we go into the smaller parties, I consider.
18:29Bersama, when you look at them, Rafizi, Ramli is the president.
18:32It looks like they are enemy to everybody.
18:35So, technically, they are enemy to everybody.
18:39They don't have a frenemy of friend.
18:41And especially in Johor, the way they, what, muda pula, ada friend, that is PSM.
18:47And then looks like, Bersatu wanted to be their friend, tapi they said no.
18:53And then the other party is Bersatu.
18:55Bersatu is a bit strange also.
18:56They like got friend, enemy, enemy friend with PAS in their own coalition perikatan.
19:03So, how do you see these three parties ni?
19:06Yang Bersama, Muda, and Bersatu?
19:11Yeah, first Bersatu, they really want to work with Pakatan Harapan.
19:16Because Bersatu, yes.
19:18Bersatu said...
19:20Pakatan Harapan or Perikatan National?
19:21Pakatan Harapan.
19:22Wow, okay.
19:23Because PAS is divorcing Bersatu, so Bersatu need to find another landmark.
19:30Okay.
19:30And the landmark is...
19:31Tun Faizal will send...
19:34After this thing, he will send and deny what you said.
19:37So, you're saying Pakatan Harapan?
19:38Yes, Pakatan Harapan...
19:40Will be their friend lah.
19:42No, we'll be one to work with Pakatan Harapan, Bersatu.
19:45Okay.
19:45Because Bersatu said we can bring the Malay votes.
19:48Which Pakatan Harapan really needs the Malay vote.
19:52PKR cannot do that.
19:56Even Amanah also cannot do that.
19:58So, Bersatu can bring that.
20:00But I think there is some throwback, some pushback.
20:04I think that's the reason that Pakatan Harapan said, hold on first.
20:08Just let's see what happened in Johor, Negeri Semilat, and maybe after this, Melaka.
20:13Because Bersatu, at this particular juncture, they just cannot survive.
20:20PAS is just playing them around.
20:22Yes, you can have contests in 33 seats in Johor, but all these 33 seats are, I would say, it's
20:30not a winnable seat for Bersatu.
20:32So, it will crush Bersatu.
20:34In fact, Bersatu will lose whatever they have right now.
20:37So, I think that the way PAS is playing around with Bersatu.
20:41And talking about Bersama, Rafi Zee said it from day one, PCM become Bersama.
20:51The enemy is Pakatan Harapan.
20:55He wants to take the vote from Pakatan Harapan.
20:57And we can know that from Johor, whether this is a very successful endeavour or not for Bersama.
21:03Because they have 15 seats, and we can see from these 15 seats, and I think from the 15 seats,
21:09there is also a Barisan National.
21:10We can see how many seats or how many votes Bersama successfully took over.
21:17Because they are contesting in urban and semi-urban area.
21:21Mixed area, not a Malay majority area.
21:23So, I think the fate of Bersama, in this case, will all depend on Johor.
21:29I think their endeavour in Johor will be miserable for Rafi Zee Ramli.
21:35They will never, they cannot win a single seat.
21:39I don't believe that they can win a single seat.
21:42But if they can pull vote from Pakatan Harapan, it's a success for them.
21:47A success for Bersama is not winning a seat, but to spoil Pakatan Harapan.
21:52And vote demography.
21:55Okay.
21:56Mudah?
21:57Mudah, I'm not trying to comment because it is so insignificant.
22:02Okay, don't need to talk.
22:03Okay.
22:04The way you say it, Bersatu will be friends, balik kampung actually.
22:08They used to be in the Pakatan Harapan coalition, four of them.
22:11So, now you're saying they balik, what?
22:14So, this Bersatu, are they enemy or friends with Perikatan National and Barisan National?
22:22Or what is it?
22:23What's the status?
22:23One thing for sure, they are not friends with Barisan National, Bersatu.
22:26And one thing for sure, that they want to be out from Perikatan National if and only if they have
22:35another big brother.
22:37And a big brother, I explained just now, Philip, is Pakatan Harapan.
22:41Which at this particular time, Pakatan Harapan say not yet.
22:45Similarly to UMNO and PAS.
22:47PAS want to be part with UMNO, Mufakat National 2.0.
22:51But UMNO said, hold on first.
22:54Let's see what happened in Johor and what happened in Negi Semilan first.
22:57So, I think Bersatu, they want to leave Perikatan National.
23:02Because, you know, to be treated like that by PAS, malu lah, Philip.
23:08Memang malu, kata orang Melayu lah.
23:12Tapi they have no choice.
23:13They have no choice, remain with Perikatan National.
23:17They want to use the logo.
23:19I think they believe in Perikatan National logo more than they believe in their own logo.
23:24But again, similarly, as I said to Bersama, it will be a disastrous journey in Johor for Bersama.
23:33It also will be a very, very disastrous for Bersatu in Johor.
23:37So, your prediction, Bersatu will pakai logo mana in G16?
23:43Pakatan Harapan ke? Perikatan National ke? Ataupun Bersatu or?
23:48Yeah, yeah, yeah. You're jumping too far away.
23:52I need you to predict further.
23:54Okay. Most probably Bersatu will opt out when it comes to GE16.
24:02I think they will work together with Pakatan Harapan but using their own logo.
24:08Bersatu logo in this particular case.
24:10Okay. This is my last question.
24:13Which frenemy will win GE16?
24:19It will be contradictory when I talk about Johor.
24:22I think it will be Pakatan Harapan and Barisan National.
24:28They need to work together to form the federal government.
24:33I think that's my prediction.
24:35Even though in Johor, it will be Barisan National 100%.
24:40Negeri Sembilan, I'm not sure.
24:42Melaka, I'm not sure.
24:44But in Pahang and also in Perak, it will be status quo.
24:49Meaning that the coalition will be Pakatan Harapan and Barisan National for the state level in Perak and also in
24:56Pahang.
24:56And also at the federal level.
24:58Federal level.
24:59Yes.
25:00They need to work together.
25:01Because Zahid Amini said they will only contest 115 seats.
25:06Parliament seats.
25:07Which is not enough to form the federal government alone.
25:11And Datuk Seriano also understood that they just cannot form the government alone.
25:16So in this case, at the federal level, I think my personal liking, Philip, is Pakatan Harapan and Barisan National.
25:24Not Barisan National and Pahs.
25:27It's not to my liking.
25:28So that's my prediction.
25:30Okay.
25:31Soalan bonus.
25:32Then who will be the PM?
25:34Depending on which party got the most parliament seats.
25:40If Pakatan Harapan, we don't see any other Prime Minister candidate, which is Datuk Seriano Ibrahim.
25:49Now let's say that Barisan National got more parliament seats compared to Pakatan Harapan.
25:56It can be either, either, either.
25:59Because not only Zahid Amidi, but there are a number of UMNO ministers that are capable, they have the capable,
26:07they have the stature to be the Prime Minister.
26:09But not Pakatan Harapan.
26:12I don't see anybody besides Datuk Seriano Ibrahim.
26:16You talk about UMNO, UMNO ada orang Johor lah, Khalid Nordin.
26:19Yeah, okay.
26:21I just, just cerita-cerita siang bang.
26:25Okay, Dok.
26:26Anything else you want to add in terms of this before we end our session about Frenemy?
26:32Yeah, Frenemy, I think it is very interesting.
26:36But after Negus Milan, I think the Frenemy will be more muddled, will be more confused before we're going to
26:44Melaka.
26:45Because after Negus Milan, it will be Melaka.
26:47But when it comes to Pahang and also Perak, the Frenemy, we can understand why they want to be friends
26:55and why also they are enemy.
26:57So in this particular case, I think for the first three-state election, it will confuse us in terms of
27:05the working relationship between Pakatan Harapan and also Barisan Nasional.
27:09Okay.
27:10Thanks so much for your wonderful insight.
27:15That ends our podcast today.
27:18And then the number one thing I learned is, it's a cliche, there's no permanent enemy or friends in politics.
27:26With that, thank you very much.
27:28All the best.
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