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This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. A more settled spell is on the way for the weekend but how warm it will get is a little uncertain. With more on this, the risk of thunder for the World Cup and a celestial kiss tonight, bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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00:00Will we have another heat wave? Will you see a celestial kiss? And will this be the most thundery World
00:06Cup on record?
00:08Lots to cover in this week's Deep Dive. Thank you for joining me. I'm Alex Burkle, presenter and meteorologist, coming
00:14to you from our headquarters here in Exeter.
00:17As always, make sure you're hitting that like button, make sure you're subscribed, make sure you're sharing this video with
00:23anyone that you think might be interested in anything that I talk about today,
00:26and get your comments and questions coming in. I'll be answering some of them later on today, and also many
00:32of them we'll be going through in the Weather Studio Live.
00:34Annie and I will be here this Friday. Let's dive in then and look, first of all, at the weather
00:40that's happening across the UK currently.
00:43And you're probably aware there are a lot of showers around. It's a very showery setup that we have at
00:50the moment.
00:50And let's look at the latest satellite and radar. Let's just pause it here. Let's put the radar on and,
00:56wow, look at that rash of showers across the country.
00:59Loads of rumbles of thunder. There's been hail. It's just really showery at the moment.
01:05And there's more of that to come through the next few days. Let's go back to the pressure pattern.
01:10And what we can see, get rid of the jet stream, put the rain on. Plenty more showers to come.
01:16Let's dart ahead to Wednesday.
01:18More showery weather on offer for many of us as well. As we always say with showers, they are hit
01:25and miss in nature.
01:26So there will be some times where you get an intense downpour and other times where you have glorious sunshine
01:32and you really just don't know what to wear.
01:34Because at this time of year, even though temperatures aren't, well, they're only around average, it's still pretty warm in
01:40that sunshine.
01:41But you may still need a coat because there's always the risk of a bit of rain pushing through.
01:46More showers to come. Now, in terms of rainfall totals, they're probably not going to be too high.
01:51A relatively brisk flow, keeping the showers rattling through quite quickly, maybe 5, 10 millimetres in an hour, that kind
01:57of thing for some places.
01:59But worth bearing in mind, a bit of a slower flow across northern areas.
02:02So here we could see some rainfall totals building up, maybe 20, 25 millimetres in a few hours.
02:09Not really enough to cause any major problems, but nonetheless, intense downpours can't be ruled out with some of these
02:14showers pushing through.
02:15And then there's also a risk of lightning and hail and some gusty winds as those downpours push in.
02:21But let's look further ahead and what is going to happen.
02:25So plenty of showers through the rest of Tuesday, plenty of showers through the rest of Wednesday as well.
02:30And then we see a warm front initially coming in later Wednesday night into Thursday, and that's going to bring
02:35some rain.
02:36The rainfall totals don't look especially high, but nonetheless, some wet weather.
02:41And then all of that clearing through as we head towards the end of the week.
02:46Friday is a bit of a messy, perhaps a transition day, if you will, with the rain clearing through.
02:52And then notice high pressure building in time for the weekend.
02:55Lots of people are hoping for some fine weather, lots of events happening this weekend, and we could do with
03:01some decent dry weather for many of those.
03:03And it does look like many of us are going to have a lot of dry weather this week, with
03:09this weekend.
03:09Sorry, not this week.
03:10Lots of showers and some rain this week.
03:12But this weekend, things could or are expected to settle down.
03:16Let's just go back because we're going to see high pressure developing.
03:20However, there is some uncertainty as to exactly where this high is going to be.
03:25Notice we have low pressure out towards the west of us and then this ridging ahead of it.
03:29But exactly how close this low gets in and how amplified this ridge is, how the influence of any low
03:35over Scandinavia, well, that's still all to be determined.
03:39Now, what I'm quite confident about is the high pressure developing and the weather turning more settled for many of
03:46us.
03:46It's a bit of rain towards the north, but that only looks pretty light, really.
03:51So it does look like this weekend is going to be mostly fine, especially compared to the unsettled times thundery
03:58week that many of us have had so far.
04:00And the high pressure looks like it will be mostly dominant through the whole of the weekend, probably even into
04:05the beginning of next week as well.
04:08But the question is exactly how far this is going to push its way across.
04:12Let's just go back to, actually, let's look at Sunday.
04:16And if I put the 850 temperature layer on and you can see there's fresher air from the north that's
04:22edging its way in.
04:24And then you've got warmer air coming from the south.
04:26And exactly where this boundary is going to be.
04:29Well, there has been some significant model discrepancies.
04:33Previous models wanted to bring that warmer air further in and push it across more of the UK.
04:40Whereas now the models look a little cooler than they did 24 hours, 48 hours ago.
04:46I can show you that in a different way.
04:48So here we're looking at maximum temperatures forecast for this coming Sunday.
04:52On the left hand side, I have our most recent model run.
04:56Well, from 15, sorry, 3Z this morning.
04:58So the 4AM model output.
05:01And then on the right hand side, I have the 4PM model output from yesterday.
05:07And you can see the stark difference.
05:09Yesterday the model was going with high 20s, low 30s across many parts, particularly towards the east.
05:15That's because it had that warmth, that warm air that I mentioned coming in all the way across the UK.
05:21Now, the most recent model runs aren't as warm as that.
05:25They're going with the idea that, yes, it is going to be settled and warm with any sunshine.
05:31But temperatures are only really peaking.
05:34Well, this is suggesting low to mid 20s.
05:37But I still think mid to possibly high 20s quite likely.
05:40Now, another way that I can show you the large spread.
05:42Now, this is the plume again looking at the 850 temperature layer, but for looking above Lincoln.
05:48And what you can really see, let's look at Saturday.
05:51Just look how large that spread is in what the model is expecting.
05:56This is from ECMWF.
05:58And you can see through the next few days, the model spread is pretty slim, as you would expect.
06:02But for this sort of lead time, we don't normally see the spread as large as this.
06:08And it can be anything from significantly warmer than average to a little bit fresher than average.
06:13And it's all because of that difference, that uncertainty with how much that warm air is going to come in
06:19from the southwest.
06:20Another way that I can show you that...
06:22Oh, actually, clicked the wrong button.
06:24But if I get up our ECMWF output, and if we look at some of the different members...
06:29Let's go ahead to this coming Sunday.
06:32I've gone too far.
06:33Let's go to Sunday, 3 o'clock.
06:35We look at member 0, for example.
06:37And this seems like a good, reasonable middle ground, I guess.
06:42Places towards the northeast, a little bit fresh, perhaps.
06:45Low teens, that kind of thing.
06:46Towards the south-southwest, high teens, low 20s looks quite likely.
06:51But if we look at run 2, for example.
06:54And this is a fair bit hotter.
06:55It's going with temperatures in the high 20s.
06:57So this has the warmer air making its way more across the UK.
07:01If we look instead at maybe model 20...
07:04Which one was it?
07:0520, I think.
07:06Yeah, this only just about has high teens just about scraping into the low 20s.
07:11So a fair bit fresher.
07:12So whilst there's high confidence in the weather turning more settled for this weekend...
07:17And it will probably last a little while.
07:20It's a bit uncertain as to exactly how warm it's going to be.
07:23I think towards the south-west, we have a greater chance of seeing that warm air coming through.
07:26So here, temperatures likely to be above average.
07:29But the further north and east you are, the less confident I am about that warmer air coming in.
07:34What happens thereafter?
07:36Again, some question marks as to how quickly this low pressure system out towards the west of us starts to
07:42make its way across.
07:43But I think it's a reasonable chance that the fine weather will last at least until Monday.
07:48And then we'll see a transition during the middle part of next week.
07:52And so it's not out of the question that Monday's perhaps even warmer than on Sunday for some of us.
07:56So that's something to be aware of.
07:59Now, obviously, we will have more information about this in this week's 10-day trend, which will be available on
08:04Wednesday.
08:05They'll be looking in more detail as to exactly how things are going to change and transition.
08:10And the likelihood, hopefully, will have a slightly higher confidence in what we can expect in terms of the warm
08:16weather that's coming our way.
08:20Whilst a few things to note about the warm weather, there have been some mentions in some forms of media,
08:29some papers, some news articles, etc.
08:32Relating any warm or potentially hot spell that we have coming our way and relating it to the El Nino
08:38Super El Nino event that is being predicted.
08:43Now, I've talked about this before in deep dives and weather studio lives.
08:47Two things. El Nino hasn't officially been declared yet.
08:51It could be declared this week, depending on who you go to.
08:54The sea surface temperature threshold that BOM used, so 0.8, has actually been exceeded, 0.81.
09:02But they also look at some other atmospheric conditions and so still yet to be declared officially.
09:09And nonetheless, I mean, I have our chart here looking at those sea surface temperature anomalies.
09:14And this is our May projection from May.
09:17And you can see the spread.
09:18It looks like it's going to be super high, getting to around two by September.
09:22But yeah, at the moment, we're not quite there yet.
09:26But very, very, very close for it being an El Nino year.
09:30But nonetheless, so it's very likely it is going to be.
09:33But there is always a significant lag.
09:36And actually, for Northern Europe, for the UK, the impact of El Nino on our summers is not particularly strong.
09:45It's much more of a winter thing.
09:47And so it's not really something that we need to be linking this warm, potentially hot spell that we have
09:53coming up to the El Nino.
09:55Same way that we didn't link the heat wave that we had in May to it because it hadn't developed.
10:00In the same way, when I talked about the summer forecast last year, whilst the models have some bias, which
10:08we had to correct for in an El Nino year.
10:11It's the summer forecast isn't that heavily, in fact, it's not really heavily impacted at all by the fact that
10:19it is an El Nino year.
10:23One other thing that I wanted to talk about when it comes to a warm, hot spell, it's very tempting
10:31for people to make the most of water, either that's inland or coastal water.
10:36But I wanted to highlight that even though the air temperature is going to get increasingly high as we head
10:43towards the weekend, like I said, low to mid 20s, perhaps high 20s, that kind of thing.
10:48The sea surface temperature, the temperature of the water stays quite low.
10:53It takes a lot longer for the water to heat up than it does for the air for the land.
10:58And as a result, you can get cold water shock if you go from hot conditions into something markedly colder.
11:05Behind me here, I have our sea surface temperatures around the UK at the moment.
11:09They're ranging from around 12 Celsius towards the north of the UK to around 14 Celsius towards the southwest
11:16and around 16 Celsius towards the southeast.
11:19So they are higher than a few weeks ago, as you would expect, when temperatures around some parts of the
11:24UK were still in single figures.
11:26But that's still a marked drop compared to the air temperature that we're forecasting for some this weekend.
11:33And so we do have advice on how to make sure that you're able to enjoy both inland and coastal
11:39waters safely.
11:40So the big thing to help avoid cold water shock is checking the temperature of the water before you jump
11:47in.
11:47Suddenly jumping in when you're really hot can cause major problems.
11:50It can put your body into shock and then can cause major issues.
11:54If you're going to be in the water for a long period of time, bearing in mind that the temperature
11:58of the water is still pretty low,
12:00then do try and wear a wetsuit to protect yourself from the cold water.
12:07Don't swim alone. Stay together. Stay in a group.
12:10And if in an emergency, then you need to call 999 and ask for the Coast Guard if you're at
12:16the coast.
12:16Unfortunately, during the previous heatwave that we had in May, there were several fatalities from people swimming in waters.
12:25And that's the type of thing that we want to avoid entirely.
12:28And this is why with our partners, we give out this advice to help make people able to enjoy the
12:35warm, the hot weather
12:37and also our coasts and our inland waters as safely as possible.
12:45Right. So let's move on. There's...
12:48Oh, hold on. I digress. There was a chart. Here we go.
12:51There are a couple of tropical storms currently affecting parts of North America or Central America.
12:58We've got Tropical Storm Boris, Tropical Storm Christina, and they're causing some problems around the Pacific.
13:05And I just wanted to have a little look at them.
13:08Now, I think Boris isn't going to cause too many issues.
13:11It's likely to fizzle out through the next few days.
13:14Let's get rid of the jet stream. I don't know why I put the 850 on.
13:19But if I just run this through...
13:21And remember, we've got Boris and Christina.
13:24Why is that not playing?
13:26So, Boris here, Christina.
13:27Boris is, yeah, it's a tropical storm, but it's going to make landfall and then kind of fizzle out.
13:32Meanwhile, Christina is going to push its way across and make landfall several times.
13:37And it's going to bring a fair amount of rain and some strong winds as well.
13:42Could be quite impactful for this part of the world.
13:47So it's going to bring some pretty unsettled weather.
13:49But whilst we're this side of the Atlantic, there's another thing that I wanted to talk about.
13:54And it's what's going to be happening in North America through the next few weeks.
13:59You're probably aware that we have the World Cup coming up.
14:02And it's likely to be a very thundery World Cup.
14:07There have been recent sporting events which have had to be postponed because of lightning strikes in North America.
14:15For example, well, there was the Club World Cup last year which had several games delayed because of the thunder
14:25and lightning that was kicking off.
14:26There was a warm-up game earlier on just a few days ago that had to get postponed by two
14:32hours.
14:32I want to say it was Saudi Arabia. I can't remember who it were. I looked this up but I've
14:37forgotten.
14:38There was a game, I think it was Saudi Arabia, against someone playing a warm-up friendly.
14:43And that had to get postponed by two hours.
14:45And so I wanted to have a look at the likelihood of this happening in what is a very thundery
14:51country at a very thundery time of year.
14:55So this map that I have behind me here, produced by the NOAA and the National Weather Service, looks at
15:03the frequency of thunderstorms or lightning across the US during June.
15:09And you can see towards Florida, that's where we're seeing it most likely.
15:14But it's not just in Florida, it's across many parts.
15:17I mean, towards the northwest, you know, towards Alaska, it's less likely.
15:21But yes, towards the southeast of the country, particularly Florida, that's where we see the highest amounts.
15:27And if we look at July, it's even greater.
15:30So still substantial amounts of lightning strikes in parts of the southeast.
15:35But across western areas, we're going to see some significant thunderstorms as well.
15:40This is based on average.
15:42And so a few things to unpack here.
15:45So in the US, they have a rule when it comes to lightning.
15:49If it's observed within eight miles of the stadium, then they need to stop, postpone the game for 30 minutes.
15:57And that's 30 minutes from when the lightning was observed.
16:01And then if another strike of lightning happens within eight miles of the stadium, it gets postponed for another 30
16:07minutes.
16:07So you start that 30 minutes again, which is why you can get these two hour delays because of the
16:13impact from lightning.
16:13Now, lightning is dangerous.
16:15It can cause fatalities.
16:17It could cause major problems.
16:20Interestingly, there are some stadiums which have roofs.
16:25And being indoors is perhaps the safest place to be.
16:28But it's not just the outdoor stadiums and events that are at risk of being impacted by the potential for
16:35these lightning storms, these thunderstorms.
16:37Because you've got to bear in mind, people need to travel to and from the event.
16:41And so that could cause problems as well.
16:42Well, England's first game, for example, is in an indoor stadium.
16:46But it's not out of the question that thunderstorms could cause problems.
16:52An attribution study looked at a 10-year period from 2016 to 2025, looked at all 16 stadiums used for
17:01this World Cup,
17:02and found that all of them are at risk or in that 10-year period, all of them had seen
17:09thunderstorms or lightning within 30 miles of the stadium during the period that the World Cup is going on.
17:16So as in middle to late June and into early July.
17:21And so nowhere is really safe from the thunderstorm risk.
17:24And so there's a reasonably high chance that we're going to see some games being delayed.
17:28In fact, some people are saying it's not really a chance that we're going to see.
17:32It's almost a guarantee that there will be some postponements.
17:34Now, some of the games are happening earlier on in the day, in which case they have the opportunity to
17:39delay it and wait.
17:41But some of the ones which are later kickoffs, they may have to be postponed until the next day, which
17:47may not be an issue during the early group stages.
17:49But later stages of the group stages and the knockout competition part, well, that could cause more problems as well.
17:56So something to take into account.
17:58And it's not just the thunder, which could be a big talking point weather-wise for this World Cup.
18:04It's also the heat and the warmth and the humidity.
18:08Now, cast your mind back to the 1994 World Cup or the last time it was held in America.
18:13And you may remember extreme heat temperatures in excess of 40 Celsius.
18:18Now, back then, the players were actually banned or not allowed to take significant water breaks.
18:24They've moved on from that and they've changed the rules entirely.
18:27I think they're implementing a rule where every game, halfway through each half, there will be a water break for
18:34the players to hydrate and get some respite from the heat.
18:38And that's worthwhile because temperatures are likely to be even higher at times through this World Cup than they were
18:4412 years ago because of our warming climate.
18:47Worth highlighting, both in terms of thunderstorms and the heat, there's a large spread across Canada, America and Mexico with
18:56the location of the stadiums.
18:58So there's a large spread as to the standard weather that those venues can expect.
19:03But nonetheless, we do have these significant impacts and the risk of them with the hot weather and the thundery
19:10weather.
19:10When it comes to the heat, they'll be looking at the wet bulb globe temperature, which they use as a
19:17way of measuring how easy it is for your body to lose that heat.
19:23The higher the air temperature and the higher the humidity raises that wet bulb globe temperature.
19:30Because, you know, 38 degrees but really dry, you're able to lose your heat by sweating that bit more easily.
19:39But if it's really humid, then your sweating is just not going to cut the mustard in the same way.
19:43And so it takes both of those things into account when coming up with it.
19:47Now, if you get a, if you're looking at above 26 degrees for that wet bulb globe temperature, then that's
19:56when it becomes really uncomfortable.
19:57It's usually 28 above and it's borderline unsafe for people to be taking part in strenuous activity, that kind of
20:03thing.
20:04So they're the figures that people are looking at.
20:06And interestingly, around 26 of the 104 stadium, sorry, 126 of the 104 games that are taking place in this
20:16World Cup,
20:17are at venues which are at risk of seeing that 26 threshold being reached or exceeded.
20:26Now, 17 of those games are in venues which have like air conditioning and equipment to cool things down,
20:33both for the players and the spectators.
20:36But that still leaves nine games in venues that aren't in, well, nine games that are in venues that aren't
20:44in set up for that kind of way.
20:46So the heat stress on both the players and the spectators could be significant.
20:49So it's not just the heat, but it's also the thunder that we need to watch out for in this
20:54coming World Cup.
20:55So definitely a big talking point either way.
20:58Come on, England.
20:59We're hoping that you bring it home.
21:02Then one last thing that I wanted to talk about before I go is the chance of seeing a celestial
21:07kiss.
21:08Yes, yes.
21:09Venus and Jupiter are going to be the closest in the sky that they're going to be for a long,
21:13long time this coming night.
21:15So Tuesday night, we're likely to see them very close indeed.
21:18How close? Well, if you get your hand and or you get your arm and stretch it out,
21:23they're going to be about as close as the width of your little finger when you hold it at arm's
21:28length.
21:28So really when you look at them in the sky.
21:30So really close indeed.
21:32Now, Jupiter has been in the sky for a little while, but it's heading closer and closer towards the sun's
21:37glare.
21:37So it's going to disappear through the next few days.
21:40Meanwhile, Venus is still going to be in fact, it's getting more and more staying above the horizon for longer
21:46and longer after the sunset.
21:47But we're at that pinch point, that perfect point where they're getting in closer.
21:51Now, you may have seen through recent nights, Venus has been traveling kind of this direction closer towards Jupiter.
21:57But yes, through this coming night, Tuesday night, that's when they're going to be at their closest conjunction.
22:02A celestial kiss, if you will.
22:05Some people calling them like literal.
22:08Well, are they literal?
22:09Well, ships in the celestial night, I guess, or celestial ships in the night because they will just be crossing
22:14past.
22:15But it's relatively fleeting.
22:17In fact, the next time that we're going to see them similarly close will be at the back end of
22:222028.
22:23So a little while to wait.
22:25So do head out.
22:26If you want to try and see them, the best chance to do so is around an hour or so
22:29after sunset.
22:31Look towards the west northwest in the sky.
22:34And you'll be able to tell the difference between stars and planets because planets are these bright lights.
22:40They'll look brighter than the stars anyway.
22:43So they should stand out.
22:44But the stars will be twinkling, whereas the planets won't be.
22:48And also bearing in mind that the sun sets in the west, that do take care.
22:53Don't look out particularly with binoculars or telescope.
22:55You don't even need them, to be honest, to see Jupiter or Venus tonight.
22:59But don't look out before the sun has set and risk damaging your eyes by looking directly at the sun.
23:05So give it a little while after sunset, but not too long, and try and look towards the west northwest.
23:11And you should be able to see Venus and Jupiter.
23:13You may even get a chance of seeing Mercury.
23:15But that's going to be more towards the horizon and a little bit harder to see.
23:19And you may need to, well, you don't want to risk looking directly at the sun.
23:23In terms of the chances of us seeing it with regards to our weather, let's just have a look at
23:27what we're expecting.
23:28Oh, not sure what's going on with my graphics around the edge there, but not to worry.
23:32Let's look at the weather around sunset tonight.
23:36So sunset's around 10, depending on where you are in the UK.
23:41So roughly looking in the right place.
23:43And across Northern Ireland and parts of the Republic of Ireland, a lot of cloud here elsewhere.
23:48There are bits of cloud, a fair few showers to watch out for, but quite a bit of clear sky
23:53as well.
23:53So most of us have a reasonable chance.
23:55Just be prepared that you may need to take a coat and wait for a shower to pass through.
24:00Obviously, with the view towards the west northwest, if you head somewhere where your view of the horizon isn't blocked
24:08looking out towards the west northwest,
24:10lest you have a greater chance or better view of seeing Jupiter and Venus.
24:15If you do spot them, do take a photo, send it in.
24:17We have an email address, weatherpix at metoffice.gov.uk.
24:21And maybe we'll share some of them in our Weather Studio Live on Friday.
24:25But thank you very much for watching this week's Deep Dive.
24:27I hope you found it interesting, as always.
24:30And like I said at the start, we'll do get your questions and comments coming in.
24:34We'll be answering some of them in the Weather Studio Live on Friday, and I'll be answering some of them
24:38now.
24:39If you've enjoyed this, hit the like button.
24:41If you've not enjoyed it, why not hit the like button anyway?
24:45And make sure you share this with anyone that you think might be interested in it.
24:50I hope you enjoy the rest of your day, and I'll see you again soon. Bye-bye.
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