- 2 months ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Hurricane Melissa will bring strong winds & heavy rain to the Caribbean. Could it affect the UK? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Honor Criswick.
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00:00Hello there and welcome to this week's Deep Dive and I'm afraid it's a bit of an end of an era, this is officially going to be my last Deep Dive for a while but it's bittersweet, we do have Annie returning next week, probably not on the Deep Dive, that would seem a bit harsh for her first week back but nevertheless we're going to see more of Annie's face and slightly less of mine but I will pop up from time to time.
00:22There is plenty to talk about though this week, of course we've got Hurricane Melissa which you can see behind me that has intensified into a Category 5 hurricane over the weekend bringing very large amounts of rainfall and some strong winds so we're going to dive a little bit into this hurricane and see why it's intensified so far and also have a look to see if it could potentially impact our weather as we head into next week.
00:49Not only that but it's half term for many of us as well and it's Halloween so there's going to be plenty of people out and about so we'll go into this week's weather forecast and also take a look at the potential of maybe there being some stormy conditions for us that doesn't include Hurricane Melissa so there's plenty to talk about.
01:09So let's start off with then what's behind me Hurricane Melissa that has intensified into a Category 5 hurricane I think it was yesterday so bringing really intense winds, wind speeds of around 175 miles per hour of course to be a Category 5 hurricane it needs to be around 157 miles per hour winds or more and not only this but we're seeing these as sustained wind speeds so very very strong winds and not only this but really quite a lot of rainfall.
01:37Over the event as a whole it's forecasted to see around 1000 millimeters of rain so this really causing quite detrimental impacts to Jamaica and also to parts of Cuba, Haiti and other areas of the Caribbean as this system drifts its way northwards.
01:52And it's record breaking in some ways and there's only been a previous hurricane that's been Category 3 strength or more that's hit Jamaica so actually made landfall and that was back in 1988 that was Hurricane Gilbert which was Category 3 so this has been the most powerful hurricane to impact Jamaica.
02:12Not only this but it's the third Category 5 hurricane of this season the previous ones being Erin and Humberto and I think me and Julian were on talking about Humberto actually if you want to take back take a look at some previous deep dives that we've done.
02:28But yeah it's the third Category 5 but yeah it's the third Category 5 but yeah it's the third Category 5 of this season and the last time we saw that was in 2005 where we saw 4 so it's not long previous or it's about 10 years ago that we actually saw that many hurricanes become this intense.
02:44Last I checked the central pressure of this system was 901 millibars that's the central pressure and that makes it the sixth lowest pressure in the North Atlantic the sixth lowest pressure of a hurricane in the North Atlantic that we have seen and that beats Hurricane Katrina which was Hurricane Katrina sorry which was also in 2005.
03:06So it's record breaking in some ways but nevertheless it is set to be a very powerful storm intensifying through the course of the day as we as it tracks northwards through Jamaica.
03:17So why has this storm become so intense? Well one of the reasons actually is because where it's come from usually with these kind of systems they move from east southeast move their way towards the west or northwest so track kind of along this way but this one's actually pushed up more from the south.
03:35Not only this but the steering winds they're called so the winds that kind of push the system along they've been very light so not only has it come from a slightly different location but it's also moved very slowly so where we've seen those intense winds those intense downpours of rain it's stuck there for a long time so we're really going to see quite catastrophic hazards as a result of this system
04:03And where it's come from and how long it's lingering around so it's drifted up from the south it's likely to move its way north northeastwards through the Caribbean still as still as a hurricane and eventually as it continues to push its way north northeastwards it will move into those cooler waters it will move into air that's slightly drier
04:22And also with a little bit more wind shear so it should eventually fill and become less of a feature but nevertheless as it starts to move into this region
04:31There's a potential there for it to get picked up by a jet stream and have an impact on our weather but I'll come more onto that into a moment
04:37So why has this system been so powerful well let's take a look back at the basics what do we need for a hurricane to form in the first place well we need quite warm waters around 26 and a half degrees celsius or more
04:52It also needs to well we need wind shear in the right kind of latitude as well between 10 to 20 degrees north if we're talking about north atlantic hurricanes
05:01So we need warm waters we need it to take place in the right location and also we need wind shear so that's the change in wind speed and direction as we move up along a column of the atmosphere
05:14Not too much wind shear because that can tear the system apart and it never becomes hurricane status
05:21But we just need just the right amount just a little bit in order to create that initial spin up and not tear the storm apart
05:28And hurricane melissa really has had all those ingredients so let's take a look at sea surface temperatures around the caribbean
05:37We can we're kind of looking at 29 to 30 degrees celsius
05:41This is a few degrees above average for the time of year something we're probably going to see more of as a result of climate change
05:48So we have got those warm waters and we have got it kind of spinning up in similar locations to the two previous hurricanes we've had this year
05:56But as I've said this one has moved in that slightly different wind moved in from that slightly different direction
06:03And not only that but the other two mostly stayed out to sea whereas this one's really pushed into those land areas
06:10Obviously causing more impacts as a result
06:12So we've got the warm sea surface temperatures
06:16Another interesting thing is what can often happen with hurricanes as they continue to spin up
06:22Particularly if they're slow moving like this one is
06:25We can get a bit of upwelling of water and the water you know further below tends to be a little bit cooler
06:31But what we're seeing at the moment is actually water temperatures you know deeper down
06:36Further away from the surface they're actually still quite warm
06:40So as this system slowly intensifies doesn't really move up anywhere
06:44It's still upwelling those really warm waters
06:47So we're continuing to see it kind of intensify whereas usually if those waters are a bit cooler
06:53That kind of lessens the fuel in a way
06:55For that hurricane to intensify
06:59So warm sea surface temperatures not only that but a continuous fuel source of that warmer water deeper below
07:06We've had
07:07Obviously it's slightly different wind
07:10I keep calling it wind direction
07:12It's not wind direction
07:13A slightly different kind of track of the system as it's moved its way up from the south
07:19So that's slightly different
07:20It's taken place in the right location and we've had just the right amount of wind shear
07:24And it's then becoming quite an intense area and bringing quite significant impacts
07:29And it's also down to the orography of Jamaica too
07:32We've got some areas of quite high land
07:35Some quite high land areas
07:37So this is where we could see some quite intense outbreaks of rain
07:41And when we see those intense areas of rain on higher ground areas that can create landfalls
07:47Not only that but there are some areas particularly across parts of the southwest that are quite low
07:52So not only that but with those strong winds creating those storm surges
07:56Which could be around you know we're looking at a kind of wave heights around 13 feet
08:01So not only that but in those low-lying areas we've got those really intense waves
08:05Creating quite impactful flooding and not only that but in the higher ground areas
08:10We've got the risk of landslides
08:12And there's pretty much nowhere to hide in terms of in terms of that storm pushing into Jamaica
08:17Some really intense winds and also some intense outbreaks of rainfall
08:21These this is the kind of rainfall we are expecting this is kind of forecast rainfall
08:27So we're really looking at those those reds those purple areas particularly Jamaica
08:33We can see there's this kind of purple ring there
08:35This is 500 to 750 millimeters of rain not only that but pushing into southern areas of Cuba
08:42We've got similar amounts
08:45So this I mean this is really is an incredible amount of rain
08:49The event as a whole we're probably going to see around a thousand millimeters
08:53And to put that in context that's around about what we get to see in London within a year
08:58Not just over three days in one particular spot
09:01So widespread flooding really intense winds causing quite a lot of destruction
09:06Storm surges landslides and I think we've seen some some fatalities as a result of this storm already
09:12And I'm sure we're going to see more over the coming days too
09:16And as I said earlier the other two storms so
09:18So Erin Humberto mostly stayed out to sea but this one's not only impacting one land area
09:25But a few as it drifts its way northwards
09:27So a really really intense storm that we're going to see
09:32As a result of this I've taken this from the national hurricane center
09:37If you do want a few more details on the hurricane do take a look
09:41But it's really highlighting how catastrophic this storm is going to be
09:45The kind of advice they're giving out with landslides destructive winds
09:50widespread infrastructure damage power and communication outages
09:54Not only in Jamaica but also Haiti the Dominican Republic
09:58Eastern Cuba and southeastern and central Bahamas
10:01Also Turks and chaos hurricane conditions you know life-threatening conditions there
10:06So it's a few different land areas that are going to be impacted as a result of this also very impactful storm
10:13So there we go it is set to be a very intense storm
10:17Let's take a look at its track further ahead as well
10:19Obviously I already showed you this system
10:22This track cone sorry which has it forecasted kind of moving its way north eastwards
10:27And this also shows a few different model areas
10:31That are once again forecasting its track now
10:34It's fairly slow moving at the moment as it drifts its way northwards
10:38It's probably going to move a little bit quicker
10:40So any areas further north will see less of the strongest winds less of the rain
10:44But nevertheless it is still going to move through quite and be quite powerful
10:48But as it drifts its way northwards it moves into that colder air
10:52We see those those sea surface temperatures not quite as warm
10:55So that kind of reduces the amount of fuel that system does have in order to spin up
11:01And of course this storm as it drifts its way possibly closer to us in the UK
11:07They're still around a week away so there's always going to be that little bit of uncertainty
11:11As we can see from the spread of these models you can see some models pushing it slightly further south
11:16The majority pushing it slightly further north
11:19We could see some tracks perhaps pushing closer into Iceland
11:22But there's a fair few pushing it into the west pushing it into parts of the UK
11:28Now of course we don't get hurricanes in the UK
11:31We can get ex-hurricanes sometimes which have been hurricanes
11:35But as they drift across the Atlantic they're no longer classed as hurricanes
11:38But they can still bring some wet and windy weather
11:41So are we going to see this as a result of Melissa?
11:46Well what I will say
11:48I'm going to go back to my bigger picture
11:51So I'm just going to move over here
11:56So this here just around the Caribbean we've got that area of low pressure
12:01So let's play that through
12:03Obviously intensifying bringing those outbreaks of rain those very strong winds
12:08And then it does eventually start to shift its way northwards
12:11I'm actually going to drag it along myself because it's a little bit slow
12:14And so it's general obviously don't forget
12:17This is our global model that we use at the Met Office as well
12:19So it might be slightly different to the track I'm about to show you
12:23But obviously as it starts to drift its way north
12:26We have got that jet stream slightly situated to the north as well
12:30Now at this point we've got a jet streak flowing south here
12:33It's not particularly strong
12:35The strongest of the winds are further north or just to the west of Iberia there
12:40So it doesn't really get picked up by any particular strong area of the jet stream
12:46Until we start to move closer into the weekend
12:49But even here I think I even spoke about this last week
12:53For an area of low pressure to really spin up some more
12:55It needs to be in that left jet exit of the jet stream
12:58That colder side of the jet stream
13:00So this would kind of it would need to be kind of either further up here or just around here
13:05Take a look at last week
13:06I gave a bit more of an explanation as to why
13:09But anyway this area of low pressure doesn't seem to move in that kind of left jet exit region
13:16of the of the jet stream as we as we would like to see in order for it to spin up and really bring some
13:21wet and windy weather across the UK
13:23But nevertheless you can see there is still that low tracking its way
13:28According to our global model across parts of the northwest
13:32This is as far as my model will go at the moment
13:35But further ahead models such as the EC or further ahead in our global model
13:40It does push that area of low pressure towards parts of the northwest
13:44Are we going to see wind speeds you know of 175 miles per hour?
13:48Are we going to see a thousand millimeters of rain?
13:50No, but that is all because it's moved into those colder waters moved into that drier air
13:56But yes, it could potentially bring us somewhere in windy weather and depending on how this system
14:02Does interact with the jet stream? Could it be you know x x hurricane? Melissa?
14:08You know remains to be seen of course keep an eye on our forecasts
14:11If you want more updates on that, but I would say at the moment it's unlikely
14:16I mean this is our global model still keeping it as an area of low pressure
14:19But I've seen some runs of the EC that actually have it fizzling out a little bit further into the atlantic
14:23And it just kind of brings a little bit wet weather, but it doesn't necessarily look that particularly windy
14:27So definitely one to keep an eye on particularly over the next few days to really note where it is going to track
14:35But it's not obviously not going to be quite as catastrophic across the uk as it has been for jamaica and other areas of the caribbean
14:43But could we see a names low could we see names low this week?
14:47Could we see one for halloween dropping a few little hints there well
14:52Maybe there's a little bit of chat this morning about another area of low pressure
14:56So this is not the same
14:58I'm just going to switch the jet stream off there. This is not the same area of low pressure
15:02This is another one moving through later thursday through into friday
15:06That's melissa over there. So no longer talking about that one. This is a separate one
15:10And you can see as this area of
15:13This low starts to push in from the west. There's quite a lot of isobars on that chart
15:17So once again later thursday through into friday quite a lot of strong winds pushing through
15:23Not only this but also some outbreaks of rain now the strongest winds at the moment
15:31Through thursday and also if I push this along
15:36Even as we get into friday particularly on the southern flank of that low
15:40They're probably going to be more towards
15:43Ireland northern ireland more western areas
15:46So we've had a few chats with me Aaron to see whether there's any potential for them to name it
15:50And of course we work with them also knmi in the netherlands we work with them
15:55So if they were to name it, it would
15:58Go along with our storm name. So it would become storm bram
16:02But after chatting with them this morning, it doesn't look likely but obviously we have to see the next few model runs
16:07Probably reassess as we head into tomorrow morning
16:10So there is the potential for a named storm on the cards, but as of yet, it's not really looking likely
16:16But named storm or not it is going to bring in some wet and windy weather and of course through friday if we drag through into friday evening
16:24There's gonna be
16:26I don't know what time do people go trick-or-treating about 6 p.m. Is that that right?
16:29I'm probably not gonna go myself
16:31But nevertheless, there's probably gonna be quite a lot of windy weather a lot of breezy weather
16:36Just across the far south where those winds aren't quite as intense and some areas of rain if not some showers starting to move through
16:43And also it looks like the gm is showing the secondary area of low pressure if you're out late and friday night
16:48That might be more like me
16:50Another area of low pressure starting to push in from the southwest also bringing some heavy outbreaks of rain and some strong winds
16:57But I probably wouldn't take this as certain
16:59I'm sure we're gonna start to see a few changes with some newer model runs as we head
17:04um as we head further into the period
17:08So quite a lot of activity across the uk over the coming days we do need to keep an arm melissa
17:14We do need to keep an arm other areas of low pressure as they move their way through across the atlantic and of course the whole reason for
17:20This is really this quite um quite active jet stream at the moment. Um, it's quite um, it's quite wavy
17:28Uh, so that means when we do pick up areas of low pressure
17:32They do start to intensify as they drift across us in the uk and that really does create that changeable pattern
17:38In our weather taking a look at the kind of weather patterns over the next couple of weeks or so
17:43It does really look up and down
17:45You'll have a troughs in the jet stream which could create areas of low pressure moving through and then you'll get a slight ridge
17:51Where you'll see some brighter drier conditions if not clearer conditions if they take place overnight
17:56And then also a change again into areas of low pressure system wet and windy weather so that whether I would say over the coming
18:03Weeks is probably going to be very up and down
18:05There's no clear signals as to whether we're going to see high pressure or a cold signal or a mild signal
18:12But of course for a few more updates on that you can catch aiden tomorrow with the 10-day trend
18:16So i'm not going to step on his toes. I won't I won't say anymore
18:19But changeable is definitely the word to describe the weather over the coming days
18:24But of course, you know, it has been very dry. I was taking a look at the rainfall amounts for october so far
18:31Many areas have still seen drier than average conditions not so much across
18:36The northwest here more around average for the time of year to say it needs to be around 87 at this point of the month to be around average
18:45But you can see many of these black brown
18:49Shaded areas are below average for the time of year. So it might feel like the weather's changed
18:54It's been quite showery at times, but actually in terms of average rainfall for october. We're still below average
19:00So it has still been a very dry month
19:03So although you might not be pleased to see the rain is very welcome rain in many areas, but of course it will be
19:10Next week where we'll have the full october stats for you
19:13To take a look at what's actually happened across different regions so far this october
19:18So quite a lot happening over the coming days i'm going to finish off with this
19:23satellite image of melissa
19:26Definitely one to watch and i'm sure we'll be updating you across our social media channels as this as this storm begins to intensify
19:33But obviously our hearts go out to people in jamaica and everywhere across the caribbean
19:38That's going to be affected by this storm. I'm sure we'll see it in a quite a lot of our news headlines
19:42So if you do have any further questions around this storm, please drop them in the comments box
19:48It's me and alex burke here on my last live this friday
19:51So if you do have any questions
19:53Drop them in the comments below and we can take a look and perhaps answer some of those on friday
19:58But otherwise, I hope you've enjoyed my final deep dive. Thank you so much for all your lovely comments that i've had
20:05This year it really has been the confidence boost. I needed
20:09In order to do these videos because this is probably the one I was worried about the most
20:12But yeah, thank you so much for all your lovely comments
20:14I do read them and some of them really do make me smile. So yeah, thank you so much for those
20:19I'll miss doing them actually even though I was quite scared to do them in the first place
20:23I will actually miss them
20:25But as I say, it's bittersweet and we're going to see a bit more of annie by the time we get next uh by the time we have next week
20:31Also
20:32Two weeks from friday. Oh, no. Yes. No a week on friday
20:35It's also going to be a year anniversary of our weather studio live and we're going to have all the presenters on doing one big final quiz
20:42So that'll definitely be one to watch as well
20:45But if you've enjoyed this video, please do give it a like as I say do drop any comments or questions below
20:51Otherwise, I hope you have a very good week and I'll see you very soon
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