- 2 days ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. The pressure pattern remains the same for the next few weeks but what’s causing it and what is the outlook for the rest of the month and winter? Annie is joined by Deputy Chief Meteorologist Brent Walker to discuss the winter outlook. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth.
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00:00Hello, welcome to this week's Deep Dive. I'm Annie Shuttleworth, meteorologist
00:05here at the Met Office. Are you new here? Well welcome, we do these Deep Dives
00:10every Tuesday and they give us an opportunity to get into the nitty-gritty.
00:14Now if you are a regular for the Deep Dives make sure you subscribe and share
00:19these videos with anyone else you think might enjoy them and don't forget to
00:23send your comments and questions through throughout the video or at the
00:27end. We'll maybe take a look at them in our live on Friday this week. Now this
00:32week we'll be talking about the rain we've got yet to come through the rest of
00:36this week. It was a very wet start to the week and the ground is well saturated.
00:41We'll also be taking a look at the winter outlook. I've got a special guest joining
00:48me. So whether you agree or not here at the Met Office this week mark the start
00:53of meteorological winter. Now for many of us winter brings sparks and hopes of snow
00:59but this year's seasonal forecast for winter doesn't bring a huge prospect for
01:05any significant snow as it's looking close to average. Now that doesn't rule
01:09out cold weather or cold spells entirely. It is winter after all but it does mean
01:14it's not worth all the headlines. Now I was joined by Brent Walker, deputy chief
01:19meteorologist and seasonal forecaster here at the Met Office earlier on today.
01:25Hello Brent. Hi there. Thank you for joining me to talk about this month's or
01:31this year's winter outlook. We're actually talking about the three month outlook
01:35aren't we? That's what we call it but because the next three months are December,
01:39January, February that counts as the winter sort of seasonal forecast. Yeah it's a
01:44sort of the full winter outlook because we have them on a rolling every month we
01:48produce a three month outlook but this is the one that actually includes the full
01:51three months of winter. Yeah so what are the main headlines the key points for
01:57for this coming winter? Okay so the main headlines for this winter is that there's
02:01no particularly enhanced signal of extreme conditions this winter so if we just look
02:07at the numbers behind me on the board there we can see that this shows us the
02:13percentage chance of conditions deviating from normal. Okay. So we have this middle category
02:20which is called near average and that represents typical conditions for a season so that will
02:26encompass all the different sort of weather types but everything being sort of quite
02:30close to normal. Obviously even in normal seasons you will get extreme events but you will tend
02:37not to get prolonged stretches of extreme weather whereas if you look at the altitude categories which
02:42have a typical normal number of 20 percent these represent sort of more unusual conditions for the
02:51whole season so we'll be talking about sort of prolonged periods of heavy rainfall
02:56significant flooding events if we're looking at very wet seasons. Conversely for example we were looking
03:02at the winter and it had an enhanced signal of cold that was greater than 20 percent we'd be looking at
03:07winter conditions that were more likely to include very long cold spells and snowy weather for example.
03:13Okay so the outlooks were just broken up into temperature, precipitation and wind and as you say we've got the normal sort of near average column in the middle and then the two extremes either side
03:27and we've introduced these a few times in our deep dives if you've not seen one we've got a separate video that Aidan did on YouTube all about seasonal forecasts and how to interpret them as well if you do want any more information then we'll put the link in the comments of this deep dive online.
03:43So for this season or for the next three months you said there's no strong signal for anything particularly on the extreme side?
03:52That's correct so we could still see extreme weather events but in terms of the whole the season as a whole being extreme that's no higher than the normal risk it doesn't mean to say that that is not still a possibility but the risk is not elevated compared to what the normal risk would be in any given season.
04:09So we're expecting a kind of average winter is that not necessarily it just means that the chance of a extreme winter either be it wet or cold is similar to the normal risk that you would have just simply by looking at climatology.
04:24Right yes because you can't rule out anything can you?
04:28Exactly yeah so you can't rule it out but you can say it's not as it's not as it's not any higher than it would normally be.
04:33Okay.
04:34It's probably the better way to sort of look at it.
04:35Yeah yeah that's a good way of thinking about it.
04:37Yeah.
04:38And so we've got yeah most likely to be I see here it's sort of there's a higher percentage of it being milder than colder.
04:47Yeah there's a slightly increased chance of mild weather patterns that would produce milder conditions but the reduction in cold is not that significant.
04:56So I would say there's still a reasonably good chance that there would at least be some cold snaps during the winter ahead and we shouldn't completely rule out the chance of a cold winter completely either.
05:07Okay.
05:08It's just that the likelihood of that occurring is just a little bit lower than it normally would be.
05:12Okay okay should we have a look at it in a sort of another way?
05:15Yes sure yeah.
05:16In a form of a graph let's get these these ones up.
05:20Yeah.
05:21So this is just a different way of looking at the numbers that we've already just discussed.
05:27So we produce these in our outlook that goes on the public website and these show these are done for temperature precipitation and wind.
05:38And these basically show the change in likelihood that the forecast has from the normal likelihood.
05:46How can I explain that a little bit better is that the dashed line which is the normal likelihood is basically a plot of every single winter period in the that spans a 30 year period and in this case from 1991 to 2020.
06:01So if you were to plot that on a graph that's what it would look like.
06:05And we can see from this particular one here where you've got a peak in the likelihood that is in the near average category which is what we would expect would expect most winters to be near average.
06:15And then you've got fewer winters that are in the cold category and fewer winters that are in the mild category.
06:20And then what we can do is we can plot the outlook distribution against the climatic one and we can see where that is different.
06:29Now the outlook distribution is made up of around 42 members of our global glossy six system which is what we use for seasonal forecasting.
06:39And from that plotting that against the climatic distribution we can see what the shift in likelihoods is compared to normal.
06:50So in this case we can see that we've got slightly more of the graph in the near average to mild category than we would normally expect.
06:57So that reflects those numbers that we've just seen. And then if you look at the other ones so for precipitation and then for wind there you can see that actually there's not much difference between the climatic distribution and the forecast distribution.
07:10Which means that the near average category is the most likely outcome and the chances of extremes so extreme dry or extreme wet if we look at the precipitation example is no higher than the normal risk but the risk is still there.
07:28So there is still a...
07:29It's not that there's nothing there at all.
07:31It's not that there's nothing there it's just that it's no higher than it would normally be.
07:34So we call these outer categories the more extreme ones. This is where you could get more extreme conditions over the season as a whole.
07:41And they occur about 20% of the time is what we've calculated.
07:46And the risk that we're saying this winter is that is no higher than it normally is.
07:51So it's still at 20% but you know so it's not it's not completely not there but it's just not enhanced compared to what the normal risk is.
08:00Okay and so on a in another sort of forecast situation and what would shift these to be you know might be expecting more of an extreme more likely to be one of the extreme ends.
08:14Would that be sort of a particular global driver or something like that that might shift that.
08:20Yeah so so in the winter of the season there are certain global drivers we'll talk about these shortly about things such as Enzo for example.
08:29So whether we've got an active El Nino or La Nina event which just tick the balance of probabilities slightly more to one end or the other.
08:37Yeah.
08:38So they just act to say we just shift these distributions a little bit.
08:42It doesn't necessarily have a direct link and causal pathway.
08:46So we don't say you know we've got El Nino this year therefore it's going to be cold and dry.
08:51It just maybe increases the chance of that happening slightly.
08:54Yeah.
08:55So it would shift these distributions just very slightly one way or the other.
08:58But it's something that's useful to communicate that we have got a slightly elevated chance of extremes for example.
09:05Okay.
09:06So what are the sort of global drivers or the teleconnections as we otherwise call them that have been considered for this forecast.
09:16You mentioned La Nina.
09:18Yes.
09:19So yeah we've got currently an active La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean.
09:25So.
09:26Here we go.
09:27El Nino and La Nina events are to do with changes in temperature across the tropical Pacific Ocean.
09:34So.
09:35As you can see that yeah this is the map you can see the America here, Central America there.
09:41That's right yeah.
09:42So this blue area here is just showing areas where sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
09:48Specifically the central and eastern parts are colder than normal.
09:52And that's indicative of a La Nina event.
09:55But it's not just the ocean that changes it's the atmosphere as well.
09:58So we call it a coupled system where the atmosphere and ocean work together to change sort of weather patterns.
10:04And what tends to happen is in La Nina events is that the areas of showers and thunderstorms that form in the tropics form in different areas preferentially.
10:17So when you've got colder water in the Pacific you tend to get less heavy showers and thunderstorms there and more in the western Pacific.
10:24So it changes the whole sort of circulation what we call the walk circulation gets enhanced or shifted into different positions.
10:32And that's important because where areas of showers and thunderstorms move to does actually have impacts on mid latitude weather patterns as well.
10:43Through the generation of waves that the convection develops and then that affects what the patterns are in the mid latitudes.
10:52And can even have far reaching effects all the way to the UK at times.
10:57So it's not yeah it's not a direct impact it's sort of a ripple effect.
11:01It's like a ripple effect so you get more sort of heavy showers and thunderstorms here.
11:05That sends some waves and then that weakens the semi-permanent pressure region around the illusions called the illusion low that becomes weaker.
11:14And then downstream impacts from that can then happen to like jet streams for example and make them meander or become weaker or stronger.
11:21So it's very much a ripple effect and lots of things can influence that along the way as well and change it.
11:27So it's just one effect that can shift the atmosphere to behave in a certain way but it's by no means guarantees that it will behave in that prescriptive way.
11:37Yes.
11:38Okay.
11:39Yes.
11:40Never straightforward is it.
11:41So we're in a La Nina but a fairly weak La Nina.
11:44Yeah.
11:45It's sort of a weak La Nina event.
11:48It's recently formed.
11:51It is showing signs that the atmosphere is responding in a way that we would normally expect with La Nina.
11:57So we're starting to see some of those teleconnections particularly in tropical and subtropical regions coming through.
12:03And yes there is potential it could sort of influence UK weather patterns this coming winter as well.
12:09And with La Nina it's the, from memory it's the increased likelihood of more westerlies in the second half of winter.
12:17That's right.
12:18So it tends to have more influence in the second half of the winter.
12:20Yeah.
12:21And what that does is it tends to sort of strengthen the jet stream a bit.
12:25So it increases the chance of westerly winds coming in off the Atlantic.
12:29But like we've stressed just recently you know it's just one, it's just one little piece really.
12:34One piece of the puzzle.
12:35And then lots of other things can obviously derail that along the way.
12:38Yeah.
12:39But you know if there was nothing else that were to derail that, that link would be there.
12:45Yeah.
12:46That it would strengthen the jet stream and increase the chance of westerly winds at that time of year.
12:49Which is a milder direction for the winter for us.
12:51Yeah that's generally milder, wetter, stormier.
12:53Yeah.
12:54So you would get things like more named storms, more rain particularly in western areas.
12:59Yeah.
13:00And just generally milder conditions as well.
13:01Which is pretty similar to the weather we're experiencing at the moment.
13:04Yes it's quite similar.
13:05And what is it forecast for the rest of this month to be honest I think.
13:10I'll be talking in more detail about the forecast for the next couple of weeks.
13:14Yeah.
13:15But it is yeah that sort of milder unsettled theme.
13:18And yeah this sort of La Nina gives that outlook for the second half of winter.
13:23Yeah.
13:24So it doesn't give you a huge amount of prospect for long lived colder spells.
13:28No.
13:29That alone.
13:30That alone wouldn't.
13:31But obviously there's other things going on in the climate system.
13:35Some that we understand, some that we don't.
13:38Some that we know influence things more than others.
13:42And yeah we put all those together obviously with all the science.
13:45And you know the signals then come from the models don't they.
13:49But yeah it's useful to be able to understand what's going on in the atmosphere.
13:53And then sort of hopefully predict, base predictions on that.
13:57Yeah.
13:58So and one thing that can cause more prolonged colder weather is sudden stratospheric warming.
14:03That's correct yeah.
14:04And we have talked a lot about that in our recent content the past couple of weeks.
14:08We've been talking because we did have a what ended up being a fairly minor event didn't we.
14:13Yeah.
14:14And I think this tells us a little bit more about that.
14:16Yeah.
14:17So on the face of it this looks a little bit complicated because there's lots of lines everywhere.
14:21But basically this is just a measure.
14:23These are just forecast projections of what we call the zonal wind up in the stratosphere.
14:28About 60 degrees north.
14:30So when it's strongly westerly it will be up in these sort of high values.
14:35And when it's obviously strongly westerly that means that the polar vortex.
14:38Bearing in mind the polar vortex is an area of low pressure high up in the atmosphere.
14:43Winds obviously go around low pressure anticlockwise.
14:45So that equates to westerly winds sort of to the south of it.
14:49So when you've got a strong vortex it means you have strong westerly winds in the upper atmosphere.
14:55And that tends to pop a date down into the lower atmosphere as well.
14:58So you have strong westerly winds in the lower atmosphere where we live.
15:02But like you said recently we did have a southern stratospheric warming.
15:06And that's when the vortex itself becomes disrupted and weakens.
15:10So we had one of those events take place.
15:13It was only really a few days ago.
15:15So it's been quite recent.
15:17But there's many different types of stratospheric warmings.
15:22And in this case it was quite a minor event.
15:25So it did cause some changes to the polar vortex.
15:28The polar vortex became displaced from the North Pole, moved over to parts of Russia.
15:35And that did mean that the westerly winds around the North Pole did weaken for a time.
15:41But we believe and forecasts also are showing this that this is going to be temporary
15:46and that it will actually quickly re-strengthen.
15:49And this is what this red line is showing.
15:50It's showing that it's showing where the mean strength,
15:54when you look at all the different forecasts of the winds, of the westerly winds.
16:00And the blue line, this dark blue line here, is what we call the hindcast mean.
16:05So that's basically the climatic mean in model space world.
16:09And we can see from that it is recovering to sort of near normal by the time we get through to the end of the month,
16:14after being in a weakened state.
16:16And we believe because it wasn't fully disrupted, when it becomes fully disrupted,
16:21it tends to split into two different parts, that it's able to then, because that hasn't happened,
16:26it's able to sort of regain strength fairly quickly.
16:29And that means the impacts to where we live, lower down in the atmosphere,
16:33are less than if it was sort of a full disruption and what we call a major southern stratospheric warming.
16:40Which is when the winds completely reverse.
16:42Yeah, yeah, so that's when the winds completely reverse and become easterly,
16:46first in the stratosphere and then that easterly anomaly propagates all the way down to the surface
16:50and we get an increased chance at least of easterly winds in the UK.
16:54I say increased chance because obviously climate's very complicated and other things could be coming into play
17:00that override that particular signal.
17:03Also easterly winds usually in the UK bring colder weather in the winter,
17:07but again that's not always guaranteed as well.
17:09So it just shifts the probabilities, it shifts everything to becoming a bit more likely to be colder,
17:16but it doesn't guarantee it.
17:18But it's a bit more in the hat for that, but it doesn't necessarily mean you're going to draw the cold weather.
17:23Yeah, so it has gauged a lot of interest though in the past few weeks of, you know,
17:28what that means for December, what that means for Christmas, etc.
17:31But yeah, it's not looking like it's going to have any major effects on the UK's weather.
17:36Not currently, not currently.
17:38We are still keeping an eye on it though because, well, this graph sort of shows it really,
17:44is that all these grey lines are individual forecasts of how the stratosphere vortex is behaving
17:50sort of all the way through the winter.
17:52And those that sort of dip below this line indicate where we've got major stratospheric warming events
17:59with full wind reversals.
18:01You can see there's actually quite a few members from the glossy forecast that actually take us below that.
18:07Probably no more than you would normally see in a forecast.
18:12So the actual mean is actually running quite close to the climatic mean.
18:17But you can see that there's a large variation.
18:20So you've got some members that do full reversals and then some members that actually really strengthen the vortex
18:25and produce very strong westerlies.
18:27So there's a full range of spectrum there being forecast.
18:29So it's obviously very difficult for us to say at this time whether one's there.
18:34But what we can say is that there's not an enhanced nor a suppressed risk this year.
18:39It looks actually, the risk looks like everything else we've already talked about, pretty close to normal.
18:43So basically means that all options are still there open for us.
18:48Can't be ruled out.
18:49Yes.
18:50Making our life even easier.
18:51But the, yeah.
18:52And the other thing about the Southern Stratospheric Warming event was that it was really quite early on in the season.
18:56Yes, very early in the season.
18:57And usually we only see maybe, if we do see it, sort of one event happen.
19:01Yeah.
19:02But because it's happened so early, there is that time.
19:04There is a time for the winter for it to happen again.
19:07Yes.
19:08Yes.
19:09So, so for anyone who, yeah, was thinking that.
19:11But, okay, that's, yeah, that's, that's interesting.
19:13So, yeah, as you say, can't be ruled out.
19:16And there's no sort of particularly strong signal from any one teleconnection at all.
19:24Okay.
19:25Um, yeah, so in, in, in summary, we've got a, a most likely, more, more likely than not to be an average, average winter milder wet.
19:40What's the signal for rain actually?
19:42Well, as we can see from this graphic, everything's pretty, pretty normal.
19:47All the risks of wet and dry are pretty normal.
19:50So it's not shifting towards dry or wet at the moment.
19:55Basically means all options are still there.
19:57And it's, it's, it's very difficult to say, yes, this winter will be dominated by mild, wet and windy patterns, or this winter will be dominated by cold, dry, frosty, snowy patterns.
20:07Yeah.
20:08Um, what we're saying is that the chances of those patterns dominating throughout the whole winter, uh, are no higher than what the normal risk would be.
20:17Yeah.
20:18If you look at sort of a reference period of climate and you count how many sort of cold, dry and wet, mild winters they were, it's, it's around that same level.
20:26Um, so unfortunately at this point in the early part of the winter, we can't rule out sort of anything really at this point.
20:35But what we can say is that the risk of, um, those sort of extremes happening is no higher than it would normally be.
20:42Normally at this point in the winter, we usually have a, a reasonable idea of which way the, um, the outlook is shifting.
20:50Mm.
20:51So, um, quite often you will see sort of a shift to mild, wet and windy, or a shift to cold, dry and calm.
20:57But we haven't got that this year. It's all sort of fairly evenly balanced.
21:01So I think it's at this stage, you know, we're only a couple of days into mutual local winter.
21:07It'd be very difficult to rule anything out at this stage.
21:10Yeah.
21:11Other than that, it doesn't seem that likely at the moment that we'll go to one extreme or the other.
21:15Okay. All right.
21:16So yeah, if you were to plump for what the winter would be like, you would have to go with the sort of most likely category, which is always, or tends to be sort of near average.
21:26So it could be one of those winters where there's a bit of everything thrown in.
21:30Yeah, we've definitely had that recently actually.
21:32Yeah.
21:33Brent, thanks so much for joining me.
21:34That was really interesting.
21:35Thank you for having me.
21:37So there's no strong signals from any of the teleconnections as to what's to come for the winter.
21:44But one key driver we can always rely on, particularly through the winter for the UK's weather, is the jet stream.
21:50And that is in full force throughout this week and into next week.
21:55And that's what's driving the repetitively unsettled weather and a series of low pressures to push across the UK.
22:03Now, what's driving this strong area of jet stream?
22:06Well, the jet stream is usually enhanced at this time of year.
22:10It's driven by a temperature contrast through the mid-Atlantic.
22:14And that temperature contrast creates fast flowing winds in the upper atmosphere.
22:19And that's what drives weather systems through the UK.
22:23And in the winter, that temperature contrast becomes stronger as the poles turn away from the sun.
22:29The North Pole turns away from the sun and creates a stronger temperature contrast.
22:34But we've got a particularly potent contrast at this moment in time across northern areas of eastern areas of Canada.
22:42We've got pretty cold air actually diving down here from the Arctic.
22:46And fairly mild air actually moving up from the south as well from the equator.
22:52And over the course of this week, in northeastern areas of the USA, we will actually see what's known as a nor'easter start to develop.
23:04Bringing a spell of potentially snowy weather to parts of eastern areas of the US.
23:13It's going to be actually a sort of a mild nor'easter event.
23:16But this quite potent area of low pressure will then push into the Atlantic and actually influence our weather later on this week.
23:23Now ahead of it, we've got actually relatively mild air across the UK.
23:27As I said, we've got a strong jet stream at the moment and that is what's driving the unsettled weather here in the UK.
23:37So throughout the rest of this week, we will see a series of low pressure systems up to the north and west of the UK.
23:44That will then sit actually and develop, continue to develop up to the north and west.
23:50Because what's also interesting, as well as this strong jet through the Atlantic, is that if I just move us a little bit further east,
23:58you can see we've got high pressure building over eastern areas of Europe and Russia.
24:03Now, that's fairly typical for this time of year, but it's actually probably higher than usual.
24:08And what that is doing is stopping those low pressure systems from moving any further.
24:14So as we've got this really strong area of the jet stream, those fast flowing winds in the upper air,
24:19that's driving areas of low pressure to develop and deepen at the surface close to the UK.
24:25But then they're really not making much progress any further.
24:28You can see the jet stream sort of splits, goes around this area of high pressure.
24:32So we're going to get some quite persistent, persistent areas of low pressure, bringing more persistent rain.
24:38And there's going to be very little change in our weather pattern in the UK.
24:43As I said, that area of low pressure across eastern areas of the US does bring some uncertainty to our forecast by Friday and into Saturday
24:53as to how we see a number of two low pressure systems engage with each other.
24:58I'll talk more about how we're expecting that to evolve a little bit later on.
25:03But before then, we've got a front moving through on Wednesday night, the early hours of Thursday,
25:07that could bring another spell of pretty wet weather between any fronts.
25:11We're expecting it to be showery across western areas.
25:15You can see, yes, a number of showers moving in across western areas throughout Wednesday and Thursday too.
25:23And here's this really potent front pushing through.
25:26It's quite a narrow band, but it could bring a short-lived spell of quite wet weather.
25:31And then by the time we get to Thursday and Friday, here's this deeper area of low pressure that's approaching this sort of standstill low out to the northwest of the UK.
25:43And how these two start to intermingle with each other.
25:46Now, there's still quite a few differences between model runs as to how that plays out.
25:51And that has knock-on effects on the forecast for the UK on Friday in particular.
25:56By the weekend, we are expecting sort of low pressure to be dominant slightly more centrally across the UK,
26:03if not sat just slightly up to the northwest.
26:06You can see it's really a very similar pattern.
26:08So we're going to be talking about a lot of the same weather over the next week or so here at the Met Office.
26:13But rainfall totals will start to build up.
26:16Let's have a little look, a closer look at the rainfall totals throughout this week.
26:24So we've got the, here we go.
26:28So through Wednesday, we need the, there we go.
26:34Wednesday is probably going to be a dry day, but it's still across western areas where we're going to see the heaviest showers.
26:41It's a showery day Thursday.
26:43And we have a front move through that, that narrow band of rain.
26:48As I said, it's moving through quite quickly, but it could bring around 20 millimetres in six hours.
26:54To be honest, pretty much anywhere across the UK as it does sweep across the country.
26:59Now that in itself is not enough to cause any major issues.
27:02Most, a lot of areas would usually be quite resilient to that.
27:04But we've had a lot of rain recently.
27:06The ground is well saturated, particularly across South Wales in particular.
27:10That's where we've had some quite repetitive rain.
27:13And it is particularly sensitive here, as well as some northwestern areas of the UK, of England as well.
27:21Now, as I mentioned, I think in the live last week, you know, that's not enough.
27:27Although the rainfall could bring flooding issues, we could see some short lived flooding issues from that.
27:34And it's not enough to make up for the deficit in rain that we've seen through the spring and summer.
27:40And so water restrictions will still be applied, but it doesn't mean that we're not keeping an eye on this rain here in the Met Office.
27:47We don't have any warnings out for the rest of the week, but it's particularly as we head to Friday, there is some uncertainty developing in the forecast,
27:54which we'll take a look at in just a second.
27:56And that could bring some more rainfall that could just pop up that flooding risk once again.
28:03So let's have a look at how the models are differing.
28:07And so here we have at the top here, we've got the Met Office global model and the with the low pressure system here.
28:17That's for Tuesday.
28:18And I'm just going to put on the bottom the ECM WF.
28:23That's the European long range forecast.
28:26And we'll try and get to around Thursday.
28:31That'll do.
28:33Now, the beginning of the week yesterday, in fact, there were some quite big differences between the model outputs.
28:39They are becoming much closer together, but you can see through Thursday.
28:44And this area of low pressure in the ECM WF sort of merges straight into this more mature low here.
28:51And I'm using member zero.
28:52That's the control run for the ensemble members.
28:56And by the time we get to Friday and into Saturday, I mean, there is a subtle difference in the fact that the low pressure system in the global model is slightly further south.
29:09And actually through Saturday, it sweeps more readily across the country.
29:13Whereas if we go back to look at the ECM WF model here on the bottom, you can see this area of low pressure remains slightly further north.
29:26And it's oh, hang on.
29:28There we go.
29:29That was the wrong day.
29:30Here we go.
29:31We've got.
29:32Yeah.
29:33On the ECM WF model, it remains slightly further north.
29:35You can see it's just north of Northern Ireland there, the low pressure center.
29:38Now, these subtle differences do have a knock on effect, but it's becoming increasingly less of a major difference.
29:45And so we're starting to trust our output slightly more.
29:49And as the days go on and the the Met Office model should come slightly more in line.
29:53But for now, these differences mean there there is some some differences in the forecast for Friday morning in particular.
30:00And it's actually something we haven't had in a little while that we are we are thinking about.
30:06And that is fog here in the UK.
30:10And we've got on Friday morning.
30:15If on Friday morning, we've got a risk of fairly widespread fog actually developing for in the kind of the lull before that low pressure moves in.
30:29This is it.
30:30You can sort of see the wind starting to wrap around out in the west and there will be a band of rain moving in.
30:36And ahead of that band of rain, that front cloud will thicken.
30:39The wind starts to pick up.
30:40And those are the sorts of things that allow for or make fog dissipate, get rid of the fog.
30:46But because of the uncertainties and how quickly that front moves in, how quickly the winds pick up, how much cloud is going to come ahead of it,
30:53because that can also lift the fog more cloud moving in over the top because that raises the temperatures above the fog point and the temperature at which fog forms.
31:04So there's a couple of factors to play with that fog is already a bit of a fine art, to be honest.
31:10So as to how quickly it will clear throughout Friday, there's it's likely to form at least some some areas across central and eastern areas of England in particular ahead of this front.
31:23And then we get this band of rain pushed through and as that moves in across the high ground across the north, because it's going to be quite a cold, clear night on Friday.
31:32And we could see some snow falling over the high ground across northern areas.
31:36Nothing significant.
31:37But yeah, chance of some snow across northern England and the high ground of Scotland, the high ground of north Wales as well across Snowdonia on Saturday.
31:48So that front moves through.
31:50As I said, we've the the Met Office model, which is what we can see here, is not to be taken too literally on exactly the rainfall throughout Friday.
32:01But we are expecting another band, narrow band of pretty heavy rain.
32:06And that could be if that low pressure system is slightly further north and west that that rain just goes through a little slower, which could bring higher rainfall totals.
32:15But despite the big differences between the the pressure system, the rainfall totals between the position of the pressure system,
32:26the rainfall totals between the Met Office and the ECMWF models are not too different.
32:32You can see here this is the 48 hour precipitation totals from Friday to Sunday.
32:39So we've got Met Office on the left, ECMWF on the right.
32:42And there are some differences. I mean, you can see across southern areas and eastern areas of Scotland, northeastern England.
32:48There's a few totals being brought up on the Met Office that are a bit higher.
32:52But on both of them, one signal that you can't ignore is parts of South Wales and seeing those higher totals as well as parts across the higher ground in Cornwall as well.
33:03So that is something we will definitely be taking a look at.
33:07As I said, we've had some pretty heavy rain. Ground is really saturated across parts of South Wales.
33:12So that's something that we're keeping a close eye on here and we will be over the next few days.
33:19So we're remaining in a pretty unsettled pattern and southwesterly winds pretty much as there is a cold dip to come on Friday morning.
33:29But in general, we're on the milder side of things for at least the next week or so.
33:37We can have a look at how the temperature trend is looking for what the temperature trend is looking like across the UK.
33:55There we go. There's so much stuff in this in this screen.
33:59I am getting to grips with it, but we found it the the temperature trend.
34:04So as I said, a cold dip on Friday.
34:06Now, this is all the ensemble runs from ECM WF through the next week and a half next 10 days.
34:13And you can see that we've got this cold dip Friday morning.
34:18But in general, it kind of on the milder side of things, temperatures are about average.
34:23I mean, it's it's unfortunate. You're not remarkable.
34:26Nothing headline worthy.
34:28It doesn't mean we're expecting yet really any significant cold snaps through the next 10 days and temperatures.
34:35There are some signals for colder weather.
34:38There usually is. I mean, as you go further in time, you get an increased spread.
34:42But the main trend, the bulk of these ensemble outputs and stay around average.
34:47And if I just scroll around the country, we're moving up towards Scotland here.
34:53And it's a similar signal.
34:55We've got slightly more members across northern areas in that colder department.
35:01As I shift further south, we're actually heading on the even more milder trend.
35:06And so it is looking like it's going to be on the on the milder side of things around average, to be honest,
35:13which is kind of like high single figures.
35:15And so no widespread long live to frosty cold snaps.
35:20No significant long spells of high pressure in the forecast.
35:25We've got if we look beyond that on the the different outputs you can see on this map.
35:33If you've not seen it before, it kind of gives the the spread, the different probabilities of the pressure outputs or the set up.
35:41So blues mean low pressure dominating.
35:43And here actually the light blue shows low tracking south.
35:48We actually see a sort of fairly south shifted jet stream and bringing those lows in around from the to up from the south and west,
35:57dominating with those sort of southwesterly winds, which, as you can see, is a milder direction.
36:03So the headlines about snow bombs are not to be believed.
36:07But we'll have more on that in this week's 10 day trend tomorrow.
36:11Now, if you've got any questions about this week's deep dive, make sure you send them in.
36:15We do read them and I will be going through them ahead of this week's live.
36:20That's at 1215 on Friday if you've not caught it before.
36:23This week it's me and Alex Burkhill doing the live.
36:27But thank you so much for joining me.
36:30Make sure you subscribe, share this video with anyone else who might be interested.
36:34And I will see you again very soon.
36:45I'll see you and I'll see you again.
36:47Bye.
36:48You all right.
36:49This question is maggots of faint sync educación.
36:53I'll see you again.
36:55Bye.
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