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This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 28/01/2026.
The very wet January continues Alex looks at signs of a change at the end of next week.
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin.
The very wet January continues Alex looks at signs of a change at the end of next week.
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, there are hints of a change in our weather patterns at the end of next week.
00:05But to be honest, if you have to drier weather, this is going to be a bit of a...
00:10a tough watch.
00:11There is plenty more rain to come, certainly in the short to medium term.
00:15Why has it been so wet?
00:16Well, it's all to do with the jet stream, that fast moving ribbon of air.
00:20High up in the atmosphere, it is both lively at the moment and south shift.
00:25Across the Atlantic, here's the UK, here's North America.
00:29Why?
00:30Well, one of the reasons is North America keeps getting these cold plunges of air, the cold...
00:35Clashing with the warm fuels the jet stream and helps to push it further south.
00:40If you run through the next four or five days, we don't see a great deal of change.
00:43The jet stays south.
00:45We've shifted, continuing to push low pressure systems our way that will bring us further spells.
00:50Of rain, albeit not as intense as the rain was at the start of the week.
00:55Subtle shifts perhaps, the jet showing signs maybe of dipping a little to the south.
01:00As we head into the early part of next week.
01:02More on that later.
01:03But generally, the jet stream bringing low...
01:05Low pressure systems our way that kind of grind to a halt because...
01:10We're all pushing up against this, this block of high pressure, a blocking high with...
01:15We've got lots of cold air across Northern Europe.
01:17Cold air is dense, it sits down, it's hard to shift.
01:20That's why our weather patterns are kind of stuck in this cycle.
01:23That's what we're going to see more of.
01:25Over the next four or five days at least.
01:29So...
01:30As we come back to the shorter term, low pressure sitting out to the west.
01:34Actually, it's this little thing...
01:35Developing down to the southwest, we need to watch for Friday.
01:38Weather fronts moving across, they will bring...
01:40Some rain later on Thursday.
01:42But this little fella, that will bring not just wets but also...
01:45Windy weather to the southwest.
01:46So the first spell of rain moving in later on Thursday.
01:49Ahead of it, many places.
01:50It's actually dry for much of Thursday.
01:52As it bumps into the colder air, there will be some snow.
01:55Not just over the hills.
01:56There could be some at lower levels over Northern England and parts of Scotland for a time.
02:00On Friday.
02:01And further rain coming into the west.
02:03That's why we've got weather warnings in...
02:05In place.
02:06And the winds also need watching because that's a developing low.
02:09And it could...
02:10It could bring some gusty conditions down to the southwest.
02:12So that's, as I say, another watch point.
02:15As we go through Friday.
02:16The rain, though, is the greatest perhaps cause for concern.
02:20What we've got the yellow warnings in place for.
02:22It's showing the rainfall accumulations through the...
02:25The rest of this week and into the weekend.
02:27And it's, well, three or four main areas that...
02:30We're concerned about the darker blues.
02:32Eastern Scotland, Northern Ireland and particularly Wales and South Wales.
02:35West England.
02:36We are likely here to see those rainfall totals totting up.
02:4025 millimetres of rain more than that over the higher ground.
02:45Not huge amounts when you consider this is over, you know, a few days.
02:49But because...
02:50The ground is saturated.
02:51There's extra rainfall falling on that very...
02:55The foggy ground is likely to cause some further flooding issues.
02:58And again, the eastern...
03:00Parts of Northern Ireland.
03:01That's where we're highlighting further rain to come here.
03:04Maybe 100 millimetres.
03:05Maybe 100 millimetres of rain over the hills and lower levels.
03:08Yes, again, 25 to 50 millimetres.
03:10Quite widely.
03:11Also notice eastern Scotland.
03:12But quite a bit of that will be locked up in snow.
03:15Because we've got the colder air in place here as this weather kind of grinds to a halt.
03:20That's across eastern Scotland into the weekend.
03:23There's that low, as I said, intensifying through...
03:25Friday and then it looks like it will relax or fill, as we say.
03:29So it's not...
03:30As pokey.
03:31Not as lively for the weekend.
03:33But it doesn't really shift.
03:35Anywhere very much.
03:36It kind of stays with us.
03:37So it will be generating some outbreaks.
03:40Of red.
03:41But the isobars spread out from it.
03:42So it's not going to be generating anything in the way of strong...
03:45winds.
03:46That does mean the rain won't be moving very far.
03:48So this low sitting...
03:50Over us.
03:51Filling through the weekend.
03:52It's going to make for a messy mixture.
03:55Not expecting huge amounts of rainfall.
03:57But again, because the ground is saturated...
04:00Any rainfalling could cause some problems.
04:02And yeah, basically the weekend is going to be a messy mix.
04:05There will be some bright spells.
04:06Some sunshine.
04:07But also quite a bit of cloud.
04:09But at the same time...
04:10Not expecting anything too extreme.
04:12But as I said, any extra rainfall...
04:15Could cause some further flooding.
04:16So do keep up to date with Met Office warnings.
04:18And also...
04:20Any flood warnings in your area.
04:22What about the longer term?
04:23Well, into next week.
04:25The jet stream.
04:26As I said, diving to the south a little bit.
04:29And potentially...
04:30Potentially moving this area of low pressure down across Iberia.
04:33I say potentially because there's quite a bit of...
04:35Uncertainty as we go into the early part of next week.
04:38That's the big question mark for Monday.
04:40Where this low pressure sits.
04:41I put the temperature profile on because...
04:43This low potentially has some quite mild...
04:45Cold air mixed in with it.
04:47And that could push a little further north.
04:49Now this is the...
04:50Met Office model.
04:51And it's not pushing it north as you can see.
04:53Not until later on Monday and into Tuesday.
04:55But other models have a slightly different outlook.
04:59That's the big uncertainty.
05:00Uncertainty for Monday.
05:01This is the European model compared to the Met Office model.
05:05To get one away from the other.
05:06Not showing the temperatures now.
05:07But showing the difference.
05:08So the darker reds where we've got the...
05:10Greater difference.
05:11You can see quite a big difference between the ECMWF...
05:15The European control model minus the Met Office on the...
05:20Mean sea level pressure.
05:21That's what MSLP stands for.
05:23So some differences across the...
05:25UK.
05:26But the bigger difference is...
05:27With where that low is...
05:28Down across Iberia.
05:30That's the Met Office model.
05:31And this is the European model.
05:34Or many of the...
05:35Ensembles from ECMWF have that low further north.
05:38So taking the miles...
05:40Colder and the wetter weather in across the UK.
05:43Faster on Monday.
05:44So a bit of...
05:45Uncertainty about Monday.
05:46Until then most of the models are in pretty good agreement.
05:49And...
05:50Unfortunately as we'll see now.
05:53Most of the models are also in agreement.
05:55For much of next week.
05:56Now I say unfortunately because the...
05:58The pressure pattern that's most dominant...
06:00Through next week is like this.
06:02Back to where we were basically.
06:04With low pressure sitting...
06:05Out to the west of the UK.
06:07And generating south westerly winds.
06:09Now the...
06:10Blue on this chart is the rainfall anomaly.
06:13So...
06:14How much wetter than...
06:15Average it is likely to be.
06:16And you can see...
06:17Those same areas we highlighted earlier.
06:19Eastern...
06:20Scotland.
06:21The east of Northern Ireland.
06:22South Wales.
06:23And southwest England.
06:24They're bearing the brunt of the wettest...
06:25Weather in this pressure setup.
06:27And there is a high chance.
06:2966%.
06:30Six days away.
06:31That is a very high chance.
06:33That this is the...
06:34This is the weather pattern...
06:35That we will see.
06:36It doesn't necessarily...
06:37Hone down the details of where...
06:39And when we'll see.
06:40Rain.
06:41But in this setup...
06:42We are more likely...
06:43To see...
06:44More.
06:45Wet weather...
06:46In those areas...
06:47That have been badly affected...
06:48By the heavy rain recently.
06:50Fast forward to Wednesday.
06:51No change.
06:52It is the same weather pattern...
06:54That is the...
06:55Most likely one.
06:56The chances actually increased...
06:57To over 70% now.
06:59And fast forward...
07:00To Thursday.
07:01Spot the difference.
07:02Well...
07:03There isn't one...
07:04Except that percentage chances...
07:05Drop down a little bit.
07:06But still...
07:0767%.
07:08So...
07:09Two thirds of the ensemble...
07:10Members are suggesting...
07:11This is the most likely...
07:12Pressure pattern...
07:13That southwesterly wind...
07:14Low pressures...
07:15Sitting here...
07:16With wetter...
07:17Than usual conditions...
07:18Across the areas...
07:19That again...
07:20Have been badly...
07:20Hit by flooding...
07:21South West England...
07:22South Wales...
07:23East of Northern Ireland...
07:24And parts of East...
07:25Scotland...
07:26So that's why I said...
07:27It's not good news...
07:28Far from it...
07:29However...
07:30I said at the start...
07:31Far in the distance...
07:32There are...
07:33Some hints...
07:34Of a change...
07:35But...
07:35By the time we get to...
07:36Friday...
07:37Of next week...
07:38Well...
07:39The most likely...
07:40Pressure pattern...
07:40Still quite high chance...
07:41Actually...
07:42Considering how far...
07:43Ahead it is...
07:44But it has dropped...
07:45Your note to 42%...
07:45Has low pressure...
07:46In a similar position...
07:47But it's further...
07:48Away...
07:49With...
07:50Higher pressure...
07:51Building...
07:52Further north...
07:53And that is...
07:54Generating...
07:55A bit more...
07:56Of an east...
07:55Exterly wins...
07:56So...
07:57There are...
07:58Signs that we could...
07:59Start to...
08:00Pick up...
08:01A bit more of an...
08:02E...
08:03Excerally wins...
08:04So...
08:05There are...
08:06Signs...
08:07That we could...
08:20PICK UP...
08:21coming in. This is the probability plot where we break the weather down into kind of
08:26eight different flavors. Strong signal for the light blue.
08:31That's the days of the week there going along the bottom. But the light blue with the low pressure across.
08:36The south, which is what we've seen a lot of lately, still dominant. A bit of a blip into the weekend.
08:41Just because that low is a fairly weak affair. So perhaps the higher pressure over Scandinavia.
08:46is the more dominant. But basically the same weather patterns into next week. Most likely as we're
08:51seeing 60-70% chance. But as we head towards the following weekend.
08:56These darker reds become more prevalent. And that is with high pressure.
09:01Sitting to the north of the UK with high pressure sitting to the north. The winds around high pressure go clockwise.
09:06That does generate more of an easterly wind. And this is the...
09:11Confidenceometer, if you like. Again, looking at the multi-model ensembles.
09:16And looking at the probability of how confident we are.
09:21In the forecast. This goes from 0.0 to 1.0. Basically from 0%.
09:26To 100% confidence. This line here. That's the average going...
09:31Going forward in time. So as you might imagine. As you go forward in time.
09:34You would expect the...
09:36Confidence in the forecast to drop. We're better at forecasting for one day than we are at five days.
09:41For example. But this slide here. That's the forecast for the current...
09:46Forecast. The confidence, rather, for the current forecast. And you can see that that is way above...
09:51The average. And that green shading. Just emphasizing. And this is really unusual to see.
09:56This much green. That far ahead. Now it doesn't mean it's absolutely nailed on.
10:01We're still only talking at 30, 40% chance of that forecast.
10:06For the following weekend. But it does show more confidence...
10:11Than usual. And that's suggesting that that easterly wind, which is being hinted at...
10:16Is more likely than not. And this is also showing that chance of...
10:21And easterly picking up for that following weekend. Still a long way away.
10:24Right at the end of this 10 day forecast.
10:26But this isn't showing. We've shown these before.
10:29Where the reds and the blues sometimes...
10:31Mean pressure. But in this scenario. We're showing the probability of a...
10:36Zonal flow. Whether the winds are basically coming in from the east or the west.
10:40West is blue.
10:41East is red.
10:43The forecast. This is going back in time through pre...
10:46Previous model runs now. So going back in time. Solid blue for the...
10:51The next few days. We're seeing westerly.
10:53Into the weekend. Because that low is filling. It's more of a...
10:56Wishy-washy picture with the low kind of...
10:59The wind swirling around that low.
11:01So it's neither easterly nor westerly.
11:03But...
11:04Yes, we're back to those southwesterlies for...
11:06Most of next week. But there are...
11:07You know...
11:08Reasonably strong signal there. That we could pick up more of an...
11:11Easterly flow.
11:12For the end of next week. And into the following weekend.
11:15Now...
11:16Easterly wins.
11:16Don't necessarily mean bitterly cold. And they certainly don't guarantee.
11:21Snowfall. It just increases the chances of colder weather. Which increases the chances of...
11:26This time of year. Of seeing some...
11:28Wintry issues. Still a long way off. So...
11:31Again...
11:32The message is...
11:33Stay tuned to the forecast. And certainly in the shorter term...
11:36Be prepared for more rain. And that does bring the potential for further flooding.
11:41You want to keep up to date with Met Office warnings. And any flood warnings in your area.
11:45And the best thing...
11:46To do...
11:47Keep up to date with the weather...
11:48By subscribing to our YouTube channel.
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