What should one make of Trump's Abraham Accords move? Experts weigh in

1 hour ago

This edition of India First examines recent social media posts by US President Donald Trump stating that nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran should sign the Abraham Accords moving forward.

Transcript

00:01Good evening, you're watching India First. I'm Gaurav Savant.

00:05U.S. President Donald Trump says it should be mandatory for West Asian countries

00:11and he's given the list of the West Asian countries and Turkey and Pakistan to sign the Abraham Accord moving

00:18forward.

00:19He took to social media platform Truth Social to post and I quote,

00:24negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely.

00:29It will be a great deal for all or no deal at all.

00:34Back to the battlefront and shooting but bigger and stronger than ever before and nobody wants that.

00:42Now President Trump then goes on to say during my discussions on Saturday with President

00:47Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nayan of the United Arab Emirates,

00:55Amir Tamim bin Hammad bin Khalifa al-Thani, the Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman bin Jassim bin Jabbar al

01:04-Thani

01:04and Minister Ali al-Thawadi of Qatar, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah of Pakistan,

01:11President Erdogan of Turkey, President Abdul Fatal al-Saud of Egypt, King Abdullah II of Jordan and King Hamad bin

01:20Issa al-Khalifa of Bahrain,

01:22I stated that after all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle

01:29together,

01:29it should be mandatory that all these countries at a minimum simultaneously sign on to the Abraham Accords.

01:40Those countries discussed are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, incidentally already a member,

01:47Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, Bahrain again already a member.

01:54It may be possible that one or two have a reason for not doing so and that will be accepted.

02:00But most should be ready, willing and able to make this settlement with Iran a far more historic event than

02:09it would otherwise be.

02:11The Abraham Accord have proven to be for countries involved, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and Kazakhstan,

02:20a financial, economic and social boom even during this time of conflict and war

02:26with the current members never even suggesting leaving or taking so much as even a pause.

02:35The reason for this is that the Abraham Accord have been great for them

02:40and will be even better for everybody and bring true power, strength and peace to the Middle East for the

02:47first time in 5,000 years.

02:50It will be a document respected like no other has ever been signed anywhere in the world.

02:56Its level of importance, prestige will be unparalleled.

03:00It should start with immediate signing by Saudi Arabia and Qatar and everybody else should follow suit.

03:07And if they don't, they shouldn't be a part of this deal and that it shows bad intention.

03:14In speaking to numerous of the great leaders mentioned above,

03:18they would be honoured as soon as a document is signed to have the Islamic Republic of Iran to be

03:25a part of the Abraham Accord.

03:27Wow! And this is where I'm quoting President Trump again.

03:30Now that would be something special.

03:32This will be the most important deal that any of these great, always-in-conflict countries will ever sign.

03:41Nothing in the past or in the future will surpass it.

03:45Therefore, I am mandatorily requesting that all countries immediately sign the Abraham Accord

03:52and that if Iran signs the agreement with me as President of the United States of America,

03:57it would be an honour to have them also to be a part of this unparalleled world coalition.

04:03The Middle East would be united, powerful and economically strong like perhaps no other area anywhere in the world.

04:12By copy of this truth, I'm asking my representatives to begin and successfully complete the process of signing these countries

04:19into the already historic Abraham Accord.

04:22Thank you for your attention to this matter, Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America.

04:30And this is huge.

04:32Now, most of you know, but let me try and get you some details of what is the Abraham Accord.

04:39Well, on the 13th of August 2020, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain and the State of Israel

04:47announced the establishment of their relations under the historic Abraham Accord peace agreement

04:54with the United States of America.

04:56The Abraham Accords were aimed at normalising relations between Israel and several Arab and Muslim majority countries.

05:03The framework marked a major shift in West Asia diplomacy by moving key regional states

05:09from non-recognition of Israel towards formal, diplomatic, economic and security cooperation.

05:19The first agreements were signed by the UAE and Bahrain in 2020,

05:23making them the earliest Arab states in decades to formally establish relations with Israel under this framework.

05:30The UAE and Bahrain became the first Arab countries to formally recognise Israel since Jordan in 1994.

05:39Following the initial signings, the Morocco joined the normalisation process,

05:44expanding cooperation with Israel in areas such as trade, aviation, tourism and security coordination.

05:51Sudan then also agreed in principle to participate in the broader normalisation framework,

05:57although implementation has been more limited compared to the other signatories.

06:01Now, in his latest post, US President Donald Trump appears to be significantly expanding the scope of that framework

06:08by directly linking it to the ongoing Iran negotiations, including the nuclear negotiations with Iran.

06:15Donald Trump has suggested that any agreement with Iran should not be a stand-alone agreement.

06:20It should be tied to a broader regional settlement built around the Abraham Accord framework.

06:27He has called for countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and others

06:34to be a part of this wider framework, positioning them as part of a regional realignment.

06:41Donald Trump also warned that any failure in negotiations with Iran could lead to return of conflict,

06:47framing the deal as perhaps the last chance to find a diplomatic solution.

06:52In a notable shift, he has even suggested Iran could eventually be included in the structure

06:58if a nuclear agreement is eventually reached, reaffirming that the accord from exclusion then comes to integration.

07:06Overall, the post, now it appears that it appears to be a broader geopolitical vision that America is trying to

07:17arrive at.

07:18A large-scale restructuring of West Asia's diplomatic order anchored in a US-led normalisation

07:24and he also wants countries like Turkey and Pakistan to be part of it.

07:29Donald Trump has indicated countries unwilling to join could be seen as acting with bad intention.

07:36Now, that in a way would add pressure to align with the proposed framework.

07:41In a sense, the Abraham Accords are being repositioned, not just as a normalisation agreement,

07:47but also as a foundation of a wider regional security and political architecture linking Israel,

07:54the Arab states and potentially even Iran and then countries like Turkey and Pakistan under a wider diplomatic and regional

08:03reset.

08:04I quickly want to cut across to India Today's Foreign Affairs editor, Geeta Mohan,

08:08joining us for more on this huge development.

08:12Geeta, the talks anyway.

08:15You know, one day we are told that it's just going to happen.

08:19It could happen anytime.

08:20It's almost done.

08:21And next day, even with Iran, the impression is the talks are going nowhere.

08:26And suddenly, Donald Trump throws in the Abraham Accords.

08:29Are these other countries, have they been sounded out?

08:32Are they on board?

08:33What are you picking up?

08:35Well, whether they're on board or not, we know one thing, Gaurav,

08:39is that the announcements first happen on Truth Social and then they're spoken with,

08:46or discussions take place with the concerned countries or departments.

08:50In this case, we do not know how many countries have been involved in the decision to announce or to

08:56make such an announcement,

08:57because this certainly will come as a surprise to many.

08:59But like we were discussing earlier in the newsroom, this could very well be a deal breaker for Iran,

09:05because normalization of ties with Israel is the last thing that Iran would want tied to the peace deal with

09:13the United States of America.

09:14So we'll have to wait and see what Iran does when it comes to moving forward on the peace agreement.

09:19Are we looking at an immense war between Iran and U.S. to restart?

09:24Big questions.

09:25Countries like the Arab states, some of them very uncomfortable after the Gaza war,

09:29in normalizing ties with Israel, particularly Saudi Arabia,

09:34that has fronted all the conversations of the United Nations,

09:38Turkey and other countries.

09:39But more importantly, what will happen with Pakistan over here, played mediator,

09:44now will be pushed to sign the Abraham Accord with more than 20% Shia population in Pakistan.

09:51We'll have to wait and see how, you know, Pakistan is going to react to this news,

09:56because this is mandatory for most countries.

09:59To some, there might be some leeway.

10:01This could spell trouble for the Arab states and maybe push Iran to a place where they would walk out

10:11of the peace agreement or conversations completely.

10:15What would that mean, especially at this stage?

10:19Because are we then looking at a stage as President Trump warns,

10:22either you have a deal which is good for everyone or no deal at all.

10:28So, is President Trump coming to that conclusion that Iran will not let America walk out of this looking like

10:37a hero,

10:38in any which way salvage whatever remains of American prestige in this Iran war?

10:44Because the impression that we also get, at least from the Chinese media or a section of the Western media,

10:50is that Pakistan's Aasem Muneer has also briefed President Xi Jinping and said they're very close to a deal.

11:00Well, I think my reading, Gaurav, would be that Netanyahu and Israel was very uncomfortable

11:08with no desired result being seen when it comes to the war, but an agreement being signed.

11:17So this, in a way, I think is President Trump trying to ensure Israeli interests, Netanyahu's interests are secure.

11:26So he wants Netanyahu's interests to be secured.

11:29Saudi Arabia, clearly I'm sure Saudi Arabia would not want to be seen, especially at this time.

11:35Of course, countries like UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, Kazakhstan, between 2020 and 2025 at various stages,

11:42they've been a part of this framework.

11:45But President Trump wants Saudi Arabia and Qatar to take the lead.

11:50Would they have been sounded out that this is what he's coming up with?

11:54Or is this likely to be, you know, bolt out of the blue, even for Saudi Arabia and Qatar?

11:59Because many other countries, and especially countries like Pakistan,

12:02they'll probably take Saudi Arabia's lead.

12:04Whatever Saudi Arabia does, they'll just follow and say, if they are doing it, we are doing it.

12:11Well, very important, Gaurav, what is Saudi Arabia really going to do in this case, in this scenario?

12:16It's a very pertinent question.

12:18It is one that could change the dynamics of West Asia completely.

12:22But remember, there is an ongoing tiff between MBZ and MBS, which is Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

12:30With the UAE aligning itself with Israel and the UAE being a part of the Abraham Accord,

12:36highly unlikely that Saudi Arabia, at this point in time, at this juncture, would want to join the Abraham Accord.

12:42One.

12:42Secondly, when President Trump talks about concessions to some countries because they might need it,

12:49he in all probability would be looking at and looking to Saudi Arabia, a very key and important partner,

12:54where a lot of money of the Trump family is invested.

12:58So, a very important country and over here, I think the only country that might get a say in deciding

13:07whether they want to be a part of the Abraham Accord

13:10could very well just be Saudi Arabia.

13:13Okay.

13:13Geeta, you were recently in Iran.

13:16You've interviewed Iran's foreign minister in the past.

13:19You've interviewed a number of officials.

13:21The American reading is, Iran does not have an air force.

13:25Iran does not have a navy.

13:26Iran is no longer a fighting force or is not a credible fighting force that can challenge America.

13:32And that is why America is now wanting to negotiate with them.

13:36Iran's impression is just the opposite, isn't it?

13:39They think that they've got the world's biggest superpower down on its knees.

13:43Now, given the situation, is there hope of compromise, is there scope of compromise that Iran will get rid of

13:52its enriched uranium,

13:54400 kilograms plus, either give it to the United States or to Russia or to China.

13:59I mean, let it out of Iran, point one and point two, open the state of Hormuz like America wants

14:03without charging $2 million per ship.

14:06Apparently, they want to charge some kind of environment cess now.

14:11Well, there are a few things over here.

14:14Yes, there's a very different perception in Washington and in Tehran when it comes to the war.

14:19But it is also true and it's a fact that the Iranian regime has not been toppled.

14:26The Iranian government and military has not been decimated.

14:28You still have top leadership, which are not young kids.

14:33We're talking about Wahidi being IRGC chief now, and he is one of the topmost commanders of IRGC and has

14:43been for a very long time.

14:44So the top generals have not been completely or the military has not been decimated completely.

14:50And that's a fact.

14:51What we're looking at, Gaurav, over here is change in tact rather than a war being fought through flames, hardware,

15:00big missiles.

15:01We're looking at Iran going into gunboat diplomacy, mosquito bleeds, and certainly straining the American military when it comes to

15:11the state of Hormuz with such tactics.

15:14So the rethink happened in Washington rather than in Tehran.

15:19And the two sides are now really looking at an out, particularly President Trump.

15:25So we'll have to wait and see what is that out really going to be, because this certainly is Israel's

15:31language and not particularly Washington, D.C.'s.

15:33Also a language where he might want to placate all those Republican senators who were absolutely upset with a peace

15:42deal having been announced without any desired result when it comes to the war.

15:47So there is a lot of political, domestic political compulsions that I see and I read through the post of

15:54President Trump, but also pressure from Netanyahu.

15:59Now, Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel would want other countries to be a part of this because look at the

16:07way ties with UAE have brought about a transformation.

16:11President Trump refers to it, that countries like the United Arab Emirates, they did not seek even a pause on

16:18this deal, the Abraham Accord, even when the conflict was on.

16:23But countries like Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, Kazakhstan, President Trump's impression is whoever signs this, it gains economically, it gains strategically,

16:36and that's why he wants others to come on board.

16:39Now, Saudi Arabia, you say, may come on board.

16:42In case Saudi Arabia does, will others follow suit, especially countries like maybe Turkey, you know, that sees itself as

16:50an alternate modern Islamic leader instead of Saudi Arabia.

16:56Countries like Pakistan, will Pakistan just be his master's voice, follow whatever Saudi Arabia and the United States tell them

17:03to do?

17:07Differing voices, like you said, differing voices, differing opinions, they all have their pulls and pushes when it comes to

17:12factors within domestically, regional, where there'll be a lot of pressure when it comes to the Shia community living in

17:20these countries.

17:20That's an aspect that they'll have to factor in should they be looking at the Abraham Accord.

17:26So a lot of countries have a lot of Shia population, they'd not be, they weren't very happy with the

17:30fact that the Arab world was silent when Israel attacked Iran.

17:34And there's certainly, and Iran really hit back.

17:37So there are a lot of domestic compulsions for all these countries, Gaurav, we'll have to wait and see how

17:42that really pans out.

17:43And a decision is taken, we in all probability will be looking at announcements that will be coming from various

17:49countries in the Arab world, including Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt.

17:54All these countries will have their own position on whether if today or tomorrow is really the right time to

18:02join the Abraham Accord.

18:03Maybe somewhere down the line, some countries would be, would, would, would in all probability be okay with joining the

18:11Abraham Accord.

18:12But today might not be that day.

18:15Indeed.

18:15Geeta, stay with me.

18:17What should one make of these true social posts of U.S. President Donald Trump wanting countries like Saudi Arabia,

18:22Qatar to take the lead and sign the Abraham Accord

18:26and wanting other countries, other Islamic countries and Arab countries to follow suit?

18:31Now, he says it would be great even to have countries like Iran be a part of this, or words

18:36to that effect.

18:37Now, in a moment from now, we are likely to be joined by Ambassador Meera Shankar, former Indian Ambassador to

18:42the United States and Germany.

18:44Seema Sirohi is a senior journalist and columnist who joins us on this show.

18:48Rohit Sharma, my colleague, who's just interviewed U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, also joins me on this state.

18:56In a moment, we'll also be joined by Daniel Block, senior editor of Foreign Affairs, joining us on this.

19:02Seema Sirohi, your reading on all of us actually looking at whether there would be a deal between America and

19:11Iran

19:11and suddenly Donald Trump with this true social post on Abraham Accord thrown in.

19:16How do you see President Trump's true social post?

19:19I think it's made it all much more complicated.

19:24There was hope yesterday, but this morning, obviously, some countries are going to not be willing to sign on the

19:34dotted line at the direction of President Trump.

19:38So it's just going to delay, I think, peacemaking further down the road.

19:45So whatever peace deal there was to reopen the Strait of Hormuz might get delayed once again.

19:53And it's a very surprising turn of events, perhaps with the intention of, you know,

20:03obviously, he wants to rope in all the Arab countries into making peace with Israel.

20:09That is the larger goal.

20:12But you cannot just sort of dictate it and to do it in a short period of time before they

20:19have themselves thought about it or, you know, talked about it.

20:25So it's all very, you know, he seems to do things on the spur of the moment, but maybe he's

20:33worked it out with Israeli leadership that this is how we're going to go about it.

20:40It's a bit of a surprise.

20:42A surprise or a shock, Daniel Block, because everyone was expecting this deal or no deal on the Iran front.

20:50President Trump gave that impression.

20:51It's almost done.

20:53Asim Munir seemed to have given that impression.

20:55It's almost done after his talks with the Iranian leadership and then apparently his briefing to the Chinese leadership.

21:01How do you see President Trump suddenly throwing in the Abraham Accord issue, asking all, virtually all Islamic countries of

21:08the region, Turkey and Pakistan, to sign it?

21:12I mean, nothing that Trump does at this point really shocks me.

21:16And in some ways, this is all kind of vintage Trump, right?

21:19Throwing out demands or things that are unrelated to the current discussion at hand that have the potential to derail

21:28the current discussions at hand.

21:29I mean, that's just vintage Trump, again, bringing in unrelated issues.

21:33And I think, too, what we've seen with this war for a while now is we've perpetually been on the

21:41cusp of a deal.

21:42Trump has always said we're nearly there.

21:45We're nearly done.

21:47And that deal, you know, it keeps kind of eluding us.

21:51The horizon keeps getting pushed back.

21:53So I'm of the mindset that until we hear very clear, specific details from both sides, that there's a deal

22:01that's ready and that's been finalized, as opposed to what we've heard so far, and that, you know, we actually

22:08see people signing the agreement, we can't really trust that this is done.

22:14Unless it's signed, don't believe it.

22:16Because, Rohit, President Trump gave that impression that it's almost done.

22:21And then suddenly, he said, either we have this great deal or no deal at all.

22:26Your conversations with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, what impressions did you get?

22:32Are we close to a deal?

22:33And, you know, this talk of Abraham Accord in every country in the region should sign it.

22:41Is this throwing a spanner in the works or is that a maha deal, some mega deal that Trump has

22:46already thought of?

22:47Well, look, I think every day, you know, I mean, every time we are closer to a deal, something goes,

22:52you know, on the wrong track.

22:53And this, again, you know, or probably I should say introduces a new variable.

22:56Now, in this case, when, you know, Secretary spoke to us yesterday and he was like, he was going back

23:02to those two sticking points about uranium enrichment and then not building nuclear weapons.

23:07I think that's what he said exactly probably 24 hours ago.

23:11Now we have President Donald Trump throwing in a new variable with this, trying to exert pressure on these holdout

23:16nations, trying to achieve regional stability through pressuring them.

23:21And then trying, I mean, one could understand he wants, you know, stability in the region, but then to tying

23:26this with the war, with the negotiation, again, you know, then somebody's got to be able to understand what he's

23:33thinking.

23:33Or maybe, you know, it is one of those things he's trying to promise them to do or over deliver

23:38by, or maybe he's not successful in getting the deal done.

23:42And then he's throwing a new variable to blame it on these countries not signing this Abraham Accord.

23:48So we have to wait and watch. But again, as I said, a massive new variable into what could have

23:53been the deal.

23:54We do not know where it lands now.

23:56Okay. See, Master Rohi, is that also your impression that he's thrown in a new variable because the old one

24:01is already not happening, just creates so much chaos.

24:05Either something big emerges or it's all gone.

24:08Because, you know, the impression is UAE signed the accord in 2020 and several countries did subsequently, Bahrain again in

24:162020, Morocco in December 2020, Sudan in January 2021.

24:20But given the current situation, like you mentioned, post-Gaza operations, when he wants Iran to sign this, clearly he

24:28doesn't expect Iran to come on board.

24:31Right. So he has, you know, presented a really, really tough goal for the Arab countries and for Iran.

24:42It's not going to happen, not at his, you know, at his timetable.

24:49So it would have been better.

24:52And that's what people were hoping for, that the basic contours of how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and

25:01how to compensate Iran had been finalized, kind of.

25:07And they would proceed about the nuclear discussions later on, because it's not something even Trump understands.

25:17You can do, you know, in a finite amount of time, you need more time, unlike the last time when

25:25they just walked out and therefore we have a war.

25:28So it's very hard to say what's going on, but clearly he has some very grand idea at the end

25:42of this all that he will have made lasting peace between Israel and its neighbors.

25:51But that's not something that happens, you know, on Memorial Day weekend, right?

25:56It's going to take months, years of negotiations.

26:03So here we are.

26:05And I think the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

26:08Yes, it does.

26:09The global economy is in tailspin.

26:11Iran's already warning America with $6 a barrel oil.

26:16And they're saying, unless you walk back, that's exactly what's going to happen.

26:19Ambassador Meera Shankar, India's former ambassador to the United States and Germany, now joins me on this broadcast.

26:26And Ambassador, welcome.

26:28What do you make of President Trump's truth social post, where he suddenly says, you know, Qatar and Saudi Arabia

26:36should take the lead, sign the Abraham Accord.

26:39Other countries, including Pakistan and Turkey, should join in.

26:42And perhaps one day so should Iran.

26:44Well, I think they're really looking at paving the ground for recognition of Israel by all countries in the region.

26:52But if they make that a condition for peace with Iran or any deal with Iran, I'm afraid it's going

27:00to be quite a while coming.

27:02Because many of these countries have linked this to a two-state solution and negotiations on Palestine, where the situation

27:14continues in Gaza.

27:16The situation continues to be quite dire and also in Lebanon.

27:20So, this is certainly going to be quite a while coming.

27:25Right now, I think more limited objectives make sense because the war is imposing punishment on the entire world.

27:38And the sooner it ends, the better.

27:41But what we are seeing from President Trump is blow hot, blow cold.

27:47Yes.

27:47I mean, he announced that they had virtually reached a deal.

27:52And Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, confirmed that we would have some good news on the opening of the Strait

28:00of Hormuz in a few days,

28:02which President Trump was likely to announce.

28:05But then it didn't happen, and you had a call from Netanyahu to President Trump.

28:13What was discussed there, we don't know.

28:15But Netanyahu said he would reserve the right for Israel to take military action in its own defense.

28:24And so, you know, it kind of puts a spanner in the works.

28:29And he also emphasized, apparently, to President Trump that, you know, a deal without the nuclear issue would not be

28:40acceptable to Israel.

28:43And Iran says getting rid of the enriched uranium is unacceptable to them.

28:49It's a question of their sovereignty.

28:50So, are we back to square one?

28:53But for a moment, Ambassador, permit me to stay on the truth social post of President Trump.

28:58Because when a post of this significance or this magnitude is put out,

29:04would all these countries have been sounded out, Ambassador Meera Shankar, in normal times?

29:09Would they have been taken on board before such an announcement being made?

29:14Or he's just fired off and now he's going to wait for everyone's reaction?

29:18Well, I think he's looking at some kind of grandiose peace arrangement in the region.

29:27And, you know, you heard Secretary of State Marco Rubio also say that whatever the arrangement or peace framework,

29:37it would also deal with the issues which lay at the back of Iran's nuclear ambitions.

29:46So, an effort to bring a broader peace deal in the region, recognition of Israel,

29:54and to end these regional conflicts there.

30:01But I think when he broadens the scope of what he wants to achieve without proceeding step by step,

30:09I think it can complicate and delay the process.

30:14A more limited approach and, in fact, the framework which was being discussed

30:19was really pushing the more difficult issues in terms of the nuclear issue

30:26and how it would be dealt with to a later date.

30:30So, is the world likely to suffer even more and for a longer period?

30:37And let me bring in Daniel Block.

30:38Ambassador, do stay with me.

30:40Daniel Block, given the state of war between Iran and Israel,

30:43is there any way that Iran would even look at the Abraham Accord at this stage?

30:48Or is this likely to derail the entire process?

30:53You know, I think it's a little bit hard to say right now whether it will derail that process.

30:59You know, on the one hand, it could.

31:01And other people, and I think I said earlier that it's entirely possible,

31:05because he is throwing up a new demand at the same time that he is negotiating

31:10or trying to negotiate an end to the war.

31:13But on the one hand, that demand doesn't necessarily implicate Iran and the United States and Israel.

31:23He's not saying very clearly that, you know, oh, to the Saudis,

31:28if you don't join the Abraham Accords, we won't sign a peace deal.

31:32Now, maybe he is saying that behind the scenes or that's the implication,

31:35but he hasn't said that directly.

31:37I mean, I think what's interesting is he says he wants Iran to join the Abraham Accords.

31:41And I mean, if that is one of his demands for ending the war,

31:45then that's simply never going to happen.

31:48And so that will certainly prolong the war.

31:52So I think a little bit hard to say.

31:54There's reasons to think it could prolong the war.

31:56There's reasons to think he might just be shooting something off that's unrelated

32:00and that won't necessarily derail whatever other negotiations are going on.

32:07Seema Sirohi, are we to understand that this current no-war, no-peace scenario continues

32:13and the world will continue to suffer, you know, the consequences?

32:17Fuel prices are going up almost across the world.

32:21Absolutely.

32:21And, you know, the pressure of the global economy's suffering

32:26doesn't seem to register with President Trump as much.

32:30Maybe the American suffering would register with him faster, sooner as he goes closer to the midterm elections.

32:42But right now, with this new development, it looks like even the basic deal that everybody was hoping for,

32:51that's going to go further away from conclusion.

32:56So I don't know what the, you know, the mediation effort has been focused on opening the Strait of Hormuz.

33:06So perhaps the Pakistanis, I don't know if they were surprised too by this new twist

33:14that all Arab countries must sign and along with Iran.

33:22So I don't know, I think we are going to be in this state of a fragile ceasefire.

33:30No real progress.

33:33And the Strait remains closed for what we can see for right now.

33:40Okay.

33:41Okay.

33:42Ambassador Shankar, what about countries like Pakistan and Turkey?

33:47You know, Pakistan was trying to negotiate the ceasefire.

33:50Pakistan perhaps, and some in Pakistan wanted a Nobel Prize for Asim Munir and Shavaz Sharif.

33:56But now, 20% Shia population in Pakistan, Pakistan under pressure, will it be to sign the Abraham Accord?

34:04And will they just follow Saudi Arabia's lead that in case Saudi Arabia signs, they sign?

34:09I think they would be willing to follow Saudi Arabia's lead, but I'm not sure that they would be willing

34:16to take the initiative to sign it.

34:19You know, they don't recognize Israel, though their relations with Israel have not been bad from time to time.

34:28You know, they've had interactions, but they certainly don't have formal recognition.

34:35With Turkey, actually, Israel's relationship used to be very close before Erdogan.

34:41And in fact, it was a part of Israeli overall, I think, strategic policy to strengthen relations with Turkey.

34:52But they've taken a nosedive after Erdogan has come with his emphasis on, you know, the Muslim identity of Turkey.

35:02And now Turkey has been laying claim to some of the old Ottoman lands in, you know, Syria, Lebanon and

35:13other areas,

35:14which, you know, would bring it into direct conflict with Israel.

35:21And they have also called the Israeli action, I think, genocide.

35:26So, the Israelis have been very averse to Turkey playing any role in mediation.

35:33Negotiation.

35:34And they've not been so comfortable with Pakistan either, but they've been willing to live with it.

35:40Okay.

35:41So, Rohit, what's the wider game plan?

35:43Because there's a lot of criticism of the American president across the world.

35:47Well, yes, because of fuel prices, food prices, fertilizer prices, gas prices going through the roof.

35:54But even internally in America, and now Iran has warned the U.S., either you negotiate, you know, and accept

36:01our terms,

36:02or prepare for, you know, petrol fuel costing $6 a gallon.

36:08Is that the big fear now in America?

36:10That too.

36:10I mean, you know, even someplace in California, it's at as high as $8 and $9.

36:14And look, you know, from what I have learned, and, you know, is the fact that he actually wanted to

36:19end this war before July 4th celebration.

36:21America is celebrating 250 years of independence.

36:23He did not want to get into those celebrations with an impending deal.

36:26So, again, you know, he's trying to put as much as pressure, he's tried to put as much as pressure

36:31as he could have on Iran.

36:32I don't think that was working.

36:34And now, as I said, he's introduced a new variable.

36:36This is going to hurt him internally in the midterms, although there has been concerns about gerrymandering and whatnot.

36:41But people are not really happy, you know, with the war, the way it's going, with the rising costs of

36:46food and gas and everything around.

36:48He better, he has to find a way, you know, to resolve this for his own personal, you know, domestic

36:54politics too.

36:55Okay.

36:56So, let me now shift focus and, for this part, focus on U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit

37:03to India.

37:04Is there an effort at reset?

37:08Is that reset going to happen, given the way what America talks on Monday is very different from what it

37:15talks on Tuesday and what it does on Wednesday?

37:18Can India trust the United States or is that trust factor actually now lost?

37:24Now, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke exclusively to India Today's Rohit Sharma.

37:29Marco Rubio sent out a very big geopolitical signal in that interview on the India-U.S. trade deal, on

37:37the Iran war and several other developments.

37:39Now, the big headline from this interview is America attempting to recalibrate its strategic partnership with India.

37:47Because this global upheaval, has America seen the light of day?

37:51But then, will that Quad Summit actually happen or will India now hand over the beton to Australia?

37:58Marco Rubio repeatedly described India as one of America's most important strategic partners.

38:04He signaled Washington, D.C. seeing Delhi as central to its Indo-Pacific vision.

38:10Let's listen to Marco Rubio.

38:12I'll get you more on that story.

38:15You've indicated that Prime Minister Modi would be traveling to the U.S. this year.

38:19We do know for a fact that he might be going at G20.

38:21Is that bilateral, a different engagement than the G20?

38:23Well, we want it to be a separate one.

38:25We want it to have a standalone visit.

38:26Obviously, we look forward to hosting him in December in Florida for the G20.

38:31But we'd like to have a meeting in addition to that.

38:33And he indicated he would come.

38:35So, obviously, we'll work through the details on the proper timing.

38:37But, you know, he was there last year.

38:39We'd love to see him come back.

38:41Any timeline, no timeline?

38:43Well, we'd like to see him next week.

38:44But I don't know.

38:45That's probably a little too soon.

38:46But as soon as he's ready to come, you know, he's a busy guy as well.

38:48I mean, he's got a big country to run.

38:49And he's also just came back from an extensive foreign trip.

38:53And but, you know, we'll work out the details of when.

38:55But when is not as important as soon as possible.

38:58But whatever fits in within his schedule, we'll accommodate it.

39:00And so we're excited about that.

39:04Whatever fits into his schedule, we'll accommodate.

39:08Sweet words, Ambassador Meera Shankar.

39:10But President Trump was to come to India for the Quad Summit.

39:13Are we to understand that President Trump will not be coming to India this year?

39:18And America expects Prime Minister Narendra Modi to go once again to the United States of America?

39:23Well, it seems to look like that.

39:27We don't know for sure.

39:29But clearly, an invitation to Prime Minister Modi to go again to Washington when President Trump was due to come

39:38here, I think, is signaling that he's unlikely to come.

39:43I mean, we may still be proved wrong happily, but as of now, that's how I would read that signal.

39:53And yes, Secretary of State Marco Dubio has said all the right things, reemphasizing the value that the U.S.

40:02places on the India-U.S. strategic partnership,

40:05not just in the Indo-Pacific, but globally focusing on how much cooperation there can be between the two countries

40:16bilaterally from energy to trade to defense to critical minerals to emerging technologies.

40:23But there are difficulties, because though both sides have agreed to intensify trade negotiations, to conclude a trade deal early,

40:34right now, you know, the whole Trump tariff policy is in the melting pot after the U.S. Supreme Court

40:41struck down the tariffs.

40:43So there's an interim tariff of 10%.

40:46There's also investigation going on against India and other countries, selectively, under Special 301 of the U.S. Trade Act,

40:57where Trump could theoretically impose higher tariffs if there is a finding of unfair trade.

41:06Now, India was willing to accept a framework of relatively high U.S. tariffs of 18% while it opened

41:18across a much broader spectrum,

41:21its own economy, based on the relative advantage of a marginally lower tariff than other developing countries in Asia,

41:33China, who had been given 19% or 20% tariffs, and China, where the tariffs were of the order

41:42of 28% to 32%.

41:45It's quite complicated. We don't know.

41:48There's been so much to-ing and fro-ing on the China tariffs.

41:52But this made the 18%, you know, something that India could live with.

41:58Now, since we don't know what the relative weight of tariffs of other countries is going to be,

42:05it's difficult to say we'll accept this.

42:08Because let's say tomorrow, other countries have lower tariffs and we are tied into a higher tariff.

42:15It's not a very judicious arrangement for India.

42:20Then does it make sense, Seema Sirohi, for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to travel to the United States of America?

42:26In good faith, India was amongst the first countries to go in 2025,

42:31but the relationship has continuously gone downhill and because of American actions.

42:37Gaurav, I couldn't hear anything of what Ambassador Shankar said.

42:43So I can just tell you my basic reaction.

42:50Marco Rubio's visit is extremely important, I think,

42:54because the relationship had gone into the background for a while for a variety of reasons.

43:02India had been, India rightfully so felt that it had not been treated well by the administration,

43:13whether it was the tariffs or whether it was the extreme sort of affection for the field marshal of Pakistan,

43:23etc.

43:24So I think the relationship still, we cannot say that one visit is going to fix the one year of

43:34difficulties the relationship has faced.

43:37But at the same time, both countries, I think, realize that they both fit each other's matrix rather well,

43:48and both need each other, so they will continue to work with each other.

43:54The rhetoric from the Secretary of State was just like the old times, you know,

44:00as if nothing wrong had happened over the last 12 months.

44:05So that aside, that's just diplomaties.

44:11So that's diplomaties.

44:11Yeah, but has that trust factor gone, Rohit?

44:15Does America realize that, you know, the way, you know, President Trump not just spoke about India,

44:24you know, reposting stuff which was extremely critical of India, that's unacceptable in India?

44:30Well, I think, you know, the fact of the matter is, you know, yes, you know, that was uncalled for.

44:35I mean, even some of his cabinet ministers were saying and issuing statements that were really uncalled for.

44:40But look, you know, I mean, they are trying their best to move forward.

44:44The fact that Secretary Rubio is in India in May, such hot weather,

44:50it also signifies the fact that they want to, you know, unless, you know, make people forget what had happened,

44:56make it about, you know, they want to take the relationship forward.

44:58Ambassador Gore has done a tremendous job since he's been appointed in January.

45:02We would be probably looking at a trade deal next month.

45:04That is what Secretary Rubio told us in the interview.

45:06It could also happen next week, is what he said.

45:07So I think they do definitely do realize the importance of India, the institution in Washington, D.C.,

45:12and in India obviously want to take it forward.

45:15And yes, it was a bad patch, but there are so many things that both the nations want to work

45:20on and work together on.

45:21So yes, I mean, look, in all two and a half, well, 20 to 25 years, you know, India and

45:28U.S. have built a good relationship.

45:30This was a little, you know, blip in the radar, but they want to continue.

45:33And I think that is the message Secretary Rubio has brought to India.

45:36And I guess, you know, this is what also is probably resonating with the people in the Indian administration.

45:43So the Quad foreign ministers would be meeting in India.

45:48And will it lead to a Quad summit, Daniel Bloch?

45:52Or are we to understand that a Quad summit clearly is not happening during India's watch?

46:01I asked him that question specifically.

46:03He said, you know, they are going to have this mystery meeting and discuss things so that when the leaders

46:07meet,

46:08they should have something big to announce.

46:10And I asked him, when is that?

46:11And he said, it could be this year.

46:12You know, I mean, he was, I mean, a little vague for obvious reasons.

46:15But I think judging from what he has said about Quad, you know, the importance he has placed on Quad

46:19in taking the relationship forward with India, it looks like there are plans to make it happen.

46:24Now, if it happens in India or the U.S. or a third country, we do not know.

46:28But he is making sure with this four-day visit that Quad is brought back into the conversation.

46:34And I think he also understands that it's important for the leaders to meet

46:37so that it keeps Quad as one of the most significant aspects of the Indo-U.S. relationship and Indo

46:43-Pacific.

46:44Okay.

46:44Is there some kind of a recalibration that that's actually happening in White House

46:49or at the State Department and White House on two different pages?

46:52Daniel Block, what's your reading of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to India?

46:58Recalibration, reset, and is India to forget all about either calling India a hellhole

47:04or words to their effect or a dead economy or imposing those 25% punitive tariffs on India?

47:11If you're a strategic partner, do you impose punitive tariffs on a strategic partner

47:15and then do you tie up with a state sponsor of radical Islamist terror like Pakistan,

47:19the manner in which Donald Trump did?

47:28Daniel, can you hear me?

47:29Sorry.

47:31I can hear first.

47:36Okay, I seem to have lost that link with Daniel, but we'll try and reestablish that.

47:44Ambassador Shankar, would you want to take that?

47:46Would India let it pass because the relationship overall is important?

47:50But then would this relationship move forward when you don't know if you can trust either the president or the

47:58establishment?

47:59Or will you wait out this establishment and then at least ensure that the relationship moves forward

48:03since both countries have invested so much in it post-1999?

48:07I think that both countries would like to look forward rather than backwards.

48:13But I think we also have to look not just at the rhetoric emanating from Washington,

48:20which is obviously designed to bring the relationship back on the rails because it had slipped off the rails over

48:28the last year.

48:30But also whether and, you know, it leads to concrete outcomes because there are still uncertainties.

48:40Does the U.S. view India as a country which has to be clipped because that's what their deputy secretary

48:49of state said

48:50when he came for the Raizena dialogue?

48:53He said, we are not about to make the same mistake that with India that we made with China.

48:59Now, India is not China.

49:01And secondly, I think there are uncertainties about how the U.S.-China relationship is going to play out.

49:10But within these overall uncertainties, I think the effort has been to signal that the U.S. would like to

49:21stabilize the relationship

49:22and then move forward.

49:25So I think that's the message which India would also be willing to take because there's little point in, you

49:34know,

49:34engaging in recrimination of the relationship.

49:39It doesn't help either side.

49:41So I think we have to focus pragmatically on where we can move forward

49:47and also hold our ground where differences may be too wide to bridge.

49:53And that's the story we'll be tracking very closely.

49:56I want to thank all my guests for being a part of this very engaging conversation.

50:01The Shwendu Adhikari government in Bengal is sending out a very clear message.

50:07And actions speak louder than words.

50:10There's a video that shows a Trinamul Congress leader now being described as a gang leader.

50:16Akash Singh being paraded in his underclothes after detention.

50:21And these images have gone viral across Bengal.

50:25Now the alleged leader, gang leader of the Trinamul Congress is accused in multiple extortion cases

50:32and in a case of firing at the police in North Havra.

50:36But now things have changed.

50:38Investigators say they've also found him to allegedly be involved in organized crime network in the state of Bengal.

50:45And this action is part of a broader crackdown and enforcement action that Shwendu Adhikari as chief minister announced after

50:53he was sworn in.

50:54So within a month since taking charge, Shwendu Adhikari government has carried out a series of actions against alleged illegal

51:02construction mafia.

51:03Against illegal construction, several structures, apparently part of the Trinamul Congress or linked to Trinamul Congress leaders and associates have