00:00Let's now go to Colonel Douglas. Let's go to Colonel Douglas MacGregor. We've been waiting in on him. Appreciate your
00:06joining us, Colonel MacGregor. As you're seeing, we're still getting conflicting signals a day after the two sides had agreed
00:14to a peace plan. Donald Trump saying there's no $300 billion payout to the Iranians. How do you see all
00:22of this playing out? Is there still concerns over whether this peace plan will hold in your view?
00:28I think we need to keep in mind that this is not a peace plan. This is a memorandum of
00:33understanding that provides a framework for future discussion on a range of issues, not the least of which is the
00:41nuclear question.
00:43In the meantime, all sides have agreed to a peace. Excuse me. All sides have now agreed to a ceasefire.
00:50I just received word that in Lebanon, the Israelis and Hezbollah have come to another ceasefire.
00:57So the fighting there has currently stopped. If that's the case, then I think there will be a resumption in
01:04Vice President Vance's trip to sign the framework agreement in Switzerland.
01:18But, Colonel, it seems almost that there is this huge trust deficit that lies. If tomorrow, for example, the Iranians
01:25say that there is a commitment in this memorandum of understanding to these $300 billion, now you're saying we won't
01:31even give you $0.10.
01:32How does one ensure that this trust deficit is bridged in any serious manner?
01:40I think the only thing that we can be completely sure of at this stage is that President Trump has
01:46decided to end the American military participation in this war.
01:52I think that's increasingly clear. A number of critical U.S. military assets have returned to the United States, and
02:01there are signs in the region of a plan to disengage.
02:05Now, as far as what will be paid and when it will be paid, I know there was a plan
02:10to pay $12 billion before the agreement was signed, another $12 billion after the agreement was signed.
02:17As far as the $300 billion is concerned, that, of course, is Iranian money, and I assume that at some
02:24point that will be addressed and it will be turned back over to the Iranians.
02:29I think that President Trump is working through a great deal of opposition inside the United States, inside his own
02:36White House, for that matter.
02:38But I do think he's committed to this. The real wild card that he deals with, as you know, is
02:44Israel.
02:44The Israelis are not happy about this at all, and that's not going to go away quickly.
02:51But at least for the moment, the fighting in Lebanon has stopped, which creates the opportunity for the signing in
02:58Switzerland.
03:00Building trust is going to take a long, long time.
03:04There is no reason why the Iranians in particular should trust us or the Israelis.
03:09But I think that President Trump wants to rebuild that, and I think he's going to work towards it.
03:18How do you respond, Colonel McGregor, to those who say this MOU, the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, actually gives Iran
03:26a lifeline?
03:27It gives them a chance to rebuild, it gives them a chance to reconstruct, and thereby buy even more time.
03:34The regime is not going anywhere, it appears, and therefore it gives Iran even more time to rebuild itself.
03:41Yes, I think that's true.
03:43But I think that President Trump looked carefully at the situation and concluded that this was necessary for the global
03:50economy.
03:51If you look at conditions in your own country right now, in India, it's vital to open that Strait of
03:58Hormuz, to restore normal commerce.
04:01I think he's reached the conclusion that whatever his interests may have been in the past, the number one interest
04:07right now is global economic stability.
04:10He also wants to improve the situation at home in the United States.
04:15Inflation is rising, and our fiscal position is very fragile.
04:19So I think he's decided that the best thing to do, regardless of the circumstances, is to put an end
04:27to the fighting and get the Strait open.
04:29I think that's his principal focus.
04:32The other things will follow.
04:38You're saying the other things will follow.
04:40Now, are we therefore to presume that this was a deal that America struck under pressure?
04:46Do you believe the Iranians, because I had supporters of Donald Trump yesterday who were saying it was Iran that
04:53was desperate for the deal.
04:55What you're suggesting is Donald Trump was just as keen to get a deal in place.
05:00I think so.
05:01I think it would be a mistake to assume that he is not acutely sensitive to the global economy.
05:08You know, India's resource sovereignty is at risk.
05:12Fifty percent of your energy comes entirely from the Persian Gulf.
05:17We haven't even talked about fertilizer and all the other various minerals and substances that you've got to get from
05:24the Persian Gulf.
05:25Sulfuric acid, helium, aluminum, and so forth.
05:28He knows that.
05:29We are also interested in global economic stability.
05:33I think this particular war, if it has taught us anything, is that we are all connected.
05:40You can't wage war in isolation from the rest of the world.
05:44It affects everyone.
05:46He's discovered that.
05:48And he's also discovered that some things have been happening, of which I don't think he was aware.
05:53And these are some of the things the Israelis have done that have made it very, very difficult to reach
05:59any sort of peaceful outcome.
06:01And he talked about that in his latest press conference.
06:08So, in conclusion, if I were to ask you, Conor McGregor, winners and losers, who do you see as having
06:15come out stronger and who has come out weaker, including the other stakeholders like Israel?
06:21Who do you think has come out stronger and weaker at the end of this 100-day-plus war?
06:27The United States' strategic influence in the Middle East is on the decline.
06:32It is significantly reduced.
06:34That's a simple fact.
06:36And we now have Iran unambiguously in control of the Strait of Hormuz.
06:42And that is something that militarily cannot be reversed.
06:46We accept that.
06:47I think that's simply a fact.
06:50We're not going to see a restitution or, excuse me, restoration of the pre-war status quo.
06:57I don't think you're going to see U.S. forces move back into the Gulf, rebuild these posts and bases
07:04that they had.
07:05That's simply not going to happen because we can't protect them.
07:08And the states and the region realize that we cannot protect them against the technology that is now in the
07:14hands of the Iranians and many other people around the planet.
07:17So I think Iran is a clear winner.
07:20It is now emerging on the stage as a great power.
07:23That doesn't have to be dangerous or detrimental to us.
07:27And I think that's something else that President Trump is now exploring and concluding.
07:33Israel is clearly the loser in this operation, more profoundly than anyone else, because Israel has overreached.
07:41The Greater Israel Project has simply multiplied the enemies of Israel.
07:45The Greater Israel Project is the problem.
07:49The destruction of human life in Gaza is the problem.
07:53The destruction of human life in Lebanon is the problem.
07:57These things cannot go on.
07:59Israel has to make a decision.
08:01Do they continue down this path of self-destruction and suicide, which in my judgment is where they're headed,
08:08or do they back up and they discover that they live in this region?
08:11They have to live with the people in it.
08:13That's an unanswered question right now.
08:15And for the moment, there are lots of unhappy Israelis and lots of unhappy Israeli agents inside the United States
08:22who don't want this war to end.
08:24But I don't think President Trump is going to continue.
08:27I think he's made it pretty clear he wants this to end.
08:35So are you hopeful that at the end of the 60 days, because that's the period within which this memorandum
08:41has to translate itself into a proper peace document,
08:45are you hopeful that at the end of the 60 days we will have a deal that ensures long-term
08:50peace in the region,
08:51or will this remain a volatile, unstable reason for some of the very reasons you've given, including Israel's role?
09:00Well, it would be wonderful if the Middle East could become...
09:02And the role of the Iran-backed militias.
09:05Yeah, well, I think it would be wonderful if the Middle East could become permanently stable.
09:10I'm not sure we're going to see that in our lifetimes.
09:13But I think we can see at the end of this 60-day period a new status quo emerge.
09:19And I think the two dominant powers in the region are probably going to be Iran and also Turkey.
09:26The Turks are another powerful force in the region.
09:28They are going to have a say in what happens in the future in ways that have not been the
09:33case since the end of World War I.
09:35The United States, on the other hand, is going to want to do business with everybody, but is going to
09:40curtail its military involvement.
09:43And I think that's appropriate for us and for the rest of the world.
09:47And again, your question is valid.
09:49What about Israel?
09:51Israel's future is up to Israel and how it wants to live or not live in the region.
10:00Okay, I'm going to leave it there, Colonel McGregor.
10:03We had a bit of a problem connecting with you earlier on the show.
10:06But as always, good to have you and speak so plainly as ever.
10:11Thank you very much for joining me on the show tonight.
10:15Great to see you.
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