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US President Donald Trump's high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing concluded with optics of warmth but no major breakthroughs on the West Asia war, Taiwan, or trade.
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00:00I want to move from there to our other big story at the moment,
00:03that high-stakes meeting that's taken place between Chinese President Xi Jinping
00:07and U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing.
00:10It's wrapped up today with optics of warmth, but the underlying tensions remain.
00:15Trump praised Xi, called him a great leader,
00:17expressed confidence that U.S.-China ties will get stronger.
00:21But beyond the bonhomie, the big question, what happens on trade issues,
00:25what happens to West Asia, particularly the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,
00:31with China opposing any tolls on shipping.
00:34On Taiwan, too, there was no breakthrough.
00:36And on Iran, Beijing stopped short of committing any direct pressure on Beijing.
00:43So lots to talk about on what's happened at that big meeting in Beijing
00:47that the world is looking at.
00:49Listen to what Donald Trump had to say.
00:52Well, thank you very much.
00:54This is a great honor.
00:55It was a fantastic day.
00:58And in particular, I want to thank President Xi, my friend,
01:03for this magnificent welcome.
01:06And it really was a magnificent welcome like none other.
01:10And for so graciously hosting us on this very historic state visit.
01:16We had extremely positive and productive conversations and meetings today
01:21with the Chinese delegation earlier.
01:24And this evening is another cherished opportunity to discuss among friends some of the things
01:31that we discussed today, all good for the United States and for China.
01:37And it was a great honor to be with you.
01:43We both believe that the China-U.S. relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in the world.
01:51We must make it work and never mess it up.
01:55Both China and the United States stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation.
02:02Our two countries should be partners rather than rivals.
02:13And joining me now on our big question, does China hold the key to the West Asia war?
02:19Is China taking on the U.S. once again over Taiwan?
02:22What does the Trump Xi meet mean for India?
02:25I'm joined by special guest Aynar Thangen, Senior Fellow, Center for International Governance,
02:30Innovation Chairman of Asia Narratives, joins me from Beijing.
02:33Dr. Brahma Chalani, strategic affairs expert, expert on China, joins me here.
02:38Daniel Silverberg, foreign policy analyst and former foreign policy advisor to the House Democrats,
02:42joins me from Washington.
02:44Appreciate all of you joining us.
02:45Aynar, your first reactions, do you believe this is an icebreaker meeting?
02:50Or are we going to see something more substantive given the kind of world we live in?
02:54Any resolution at all to that critical conflict going on in West Asia?
03:00No, I'm afraid to say that I don't think so.
03:04Donald Trump was trying to ask for Beijing to put pressure directly on Tehran.
03:10But the situation there is very difficult.
03:12You have 30 different groups who are independent.
03:15They're not talking to each other because they're afraid of being discovered.
03:18And they are waging war.
03:21The idea that any country right now can go into Iran, it's their home.
03:26There's no place for them to go.
03:29There's been serious damage.
03:30Some of them believe that they are winning.
03:33Unfortunately, they don't understand that their winning is also affecting the rest of the world.
03:40Donald Trump.
03:41So are you saying China doesn't have leverage with Tehran?
03:44Sorry to intervene.
03:45Are you saying that China doesn't have leverage with Tehran to at least ensure that the Strait of Hormuz is
03:51reopened, for example?
03:53No, they don't.
03:54They trade with Tehran, but they are not in charge of their country.
04:00You know, you heard the same refrain over Ukraine and Russia.
04:04China was supposed to stop Russia or end the war and things like that.
04:09It seems like every time the U.S. causes a problem, it's somehow China's fault.
04:13And it's necessary for China to figure out how to solve it.
04:17That's not how it works.
04:19The U.S. is used to the idea that you run in and you push people around and you tell
04:24them what you want.
04:26China has a different point of view.
04:28It's more civilizational.
04:29They say, look, the only way you're going to have peace here is if all the parties come together and
04:34with other parties.
04:35And India needs to be part of that to say you have to knock this off.
04:39The U.S., you have to get rid of the sanctions and everything and pay some reparations or at least
04:45do something about all the damages you cause.
04:48Israel probably needs to lose its nuclear weapons if you want to have a long-term peace in the region.
04:54And obviously, Iran has to give up the support of any groups that are pushing any kind of separatist or
05:02terrorist or extremist ideologies or views.
05:07So each one has something to give, but the issue is how we're going to get there.
05:11And right now, Donald Trump thinks that pressuring others can make it go away, but he's going to have to
05:18participate.
05:19And as I said, there's got to be a larger group.
05:22Daniel Silverberg, do you go along with that?
05:24There are limits to what even the Chinese can do vis-a-vis Tehran.
05:28And is that what Donald Trump wants?
05:30So is Donald Trump's China visit principally about breaking the trade deadlock, perhaps achieving some kind of progress on Taiwan,
05:38which doesn't seem to have again happened?
05:39What really do you believe is Donald Trump hoping to achieve here in Beijing?
05:46Well, I think it's highly speculative of what exactly China can do vis-a-vis Iran.
05:53I think the better question is how much are they willing to do with Iran?
05:58And in my view, they do not want to get any further entangled in the U.S.-Iran dynamic than they
06:07already are.
06:08They have way too much at stake.
06:10And that includes providing above-radar intensive support to Iran.
06:18Notice that China, other than a few protests at the UN, has not been particularly vulnerable about the U.S.
06:27attack on Iran and has not come to Iran's rescue.
06:33Quite the contrary, I think that while they continue to probably provide intelligence support and clearly are giving money to
06:45feed this regime through oil sales, I don't think that they're interested in getting deeply involved in Iran.
06:55And a bunch of the Trump administration pushed all that hard either.
06:58I agree with your premise.
07:00The number one thing that the Trump administration wanted out of this summit was economic progress, was to make a
07:06deal on the trade front.
07:08That's where they put their resources.
07:10That's where there was a serious exchange of paper and a rigorous diplomatic effort beforehand.
07:16I suspect that's where we'll see progress, not so much on the Iran file or on other broad geopolitical issues
07:24of tension.
07:25How do you see it, Pramachalani?
07:27How do you see this shaking hands that we are seeing on the screen between President Xi and President Trump?
07:34Rajdeep, Trump went to Beijing with a weakened hand.
07:39One reason is this Iran war, which has turned into a self-made fiasco, with the U.S. bogged down
07:47by a far weaker power.
07:48The war has drained critical U.S. munitions and damaged U.S. bases and radar installations in the Middle East.
07:57The war has also exposed deeper U.S. weaknesses, including vulnerable forward bases and the difficulty of countering drone swarms.
08:08All this has raised doubts in Taiwan and in other U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea about U
08:17.S. readiness for a potential conflict with China.
08:21A second reason is the U.S. economic picture.
08:25Unlike in Trump's first term, the U.S. economy was strong.
08:31The U.S. now faces stagflation.
08:34The U.S. remains deeply reliant on Chinese inputs, not least rare earths, and Beijing has shown it will weaponize
08:44that dependence.
08:47It is against this background, Rasleep, that Trump has made a dramatic U-turn in his China policy.
08:56His policy has shifted from confrontation to accommodation.
09:01That has been a huge change in Trump's China policy.
09:07Should that worry us?
09:09Should that worry us in India if he's moving from confrontation to accommodation with Beijing?
09:14Well, as far as India is concerned, this fundamental shift in Trump's China policy erodes India's salience in U.S.
09:26policy as a potential counterweight to China.
09:29And one consequence of this is that the Quad, that is the U.S., Australia, Japan, India Quad, the Quad
09:39is drifting toward strategic irrelevance.
09:43But to contain the fallout from Trump's shift in policy on China and to prevent an impression from forming that
09:52the Quad is now defunct, the U.S. has agreed to a Quad foreign minister's meeting in New Delhi on
09:59May 25th, shortly after Trump returns home from Beijing.
10:04Secretary of State Rubio's participation in the New Delhi meeting is intended to signal that the Quad remains relevant.
10:12But the Quad meeting and Rubio's participation in it are little more than damage control.
10:20Right.
10:21The blunt truth is that the Quad is adrift.
10:25You know, you're making a very strong point that the Quad is moving towards strategic irrelevance.
10:30But Aina, one of the statements made today, Xi Jinping apparently said Taiwan is the most important issue and the
10:37Taiwan question is critical to U.S.-China relations could lead to confrontation if badly managed.
10:43Is China looking at the U.S. in the eye again and sensing a vulnerability in Donald Trump?
10:51Not vulnerability.
10:52I mean, this is not a new message.
10:54And before Trump left the United States, the ambassador of China to Washington clearly stated that there were four red
11:02lines and Taiwan was the first and foremost.
11:06This is just a repetition of everything that they said.
11:09There's some concern about the fact that there's this 11 to 14 billion dollar arms sales to Taiwan.
11:18This is a record amount.
11:19It also introduces this idea that Taiwan will possess weapons that can reach deep into the mainland, perhaps even to
11:29Beijing.
11:29That's the red line, one of them.
11:32The other one is if for some reason the Taiwanese authorities decide that they want to declare independence.
11:39It's not a threat.
11:41China doesn't threaten that way.
11:44If there in fact is a move in any of those directions, there will be an armed confrontation.
11:49So what are we seeing, Daniel Silverberg?
11:53What do you see as the biggest takeaway then?
11:56If Donald Trump, as Brahma Chalani says, moving from confrontation to accommodation,
12:02do you see this relationship now strengthening in the years ahead?
12:06Or is there still fundamental mistrust on key issues?
12:10I think Donald Trump's fundamental objective in this summit was not to achieve specific wins on any issue.
12:22It was to have an excellent rapport with President Xi and then let the details be figured out after.
12:31In my mind, Trump has shifted from conflict to accommodation back to conflict any number of times over his first
12:41term and over the last two years.
12:43Personally, I am disappointed that he's taken an accommodation approach on some pretty key issues.
12:52For example, I'm not seeing much public statements around ending the war in Ukraine.
12:58China could end this war tomorrow if they pushed Russia to end its military conflict and to end their financial
13:08support for Russia.
13:10Likewise, there is no mention of human rights.
13:13This was one of the marquee issues for the Bush administration, for the Obama administration, and certainly for the Biden
13:21administration.
13:21I have not heard anything about the Uyghurs, about Chinese suppression of minority rights.
13:30And so I look at this and see the president does not want to duke it out with President Xi.
13:39They want to have a good meeting.
13:40They want to get to the economic issues and put aside some of the thornier, challenging issues that undergird this
13:49relationship right now.
13:51Final word then, Brahmachalani.
13:55It appears that China and the U.S. perhaps have kept some of the ticklish issues away, including Iran.
14:03Therefore, there was an expectation that will this result in a major breakthrough, especially on the West Asia conflict.
14:11That doesn't seem to be happening.
14:13And that should worry us even again here in India, that it appears at the moment that there seems to
14:21be no one with the locus to bring an end to the conflict.
14:25You're right, absolutely, Razdeep.
14:28The visit's outcome is actually a managed detente, a cooling of rhetoric and a symbolic reset.
14:39Without a breakthrough on any of the major issues that divide them, both the U.S. and China will claim
14:46the visit to be a success.
14:47But I think there's a larger point that the world will notice during this visit to China.
14:55Trump has been on his best behavior.
14:58In fact, he has been deferential, telling Xi Jinping, it's an honor to be your friend.
15:05And I think the spectacle highlights one troubling aspect about Trump, how under his leadership, America's principal strategic rival gets
15:20the flattery and respect while U.S. allies and strategic partners are more often treated by Trump, like freeloaders or
15:30vassal states or adversaries.
15:33In fact, Trump validates what Henry Kissinger once cynically said.
15:39Kissinger said, it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.
15:47Let me leave it there.
15:49Let me leave it there.
15:50Good to have all three of you on the show and giving very different perspectives.
15:55Good to have views from Beijing, New Delhi and Washington.
15:58Thanks very much for joining us.
16:00We'll track that meeting very closely.
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