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US President Donald Trump on Wednesday praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a "very tough negotiator" who is 'like an angel', as the two leaders met on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Evian-Les-Bains.
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00:00So let's raise the big questions. Can India really trust a Donald Trump?
00:05What does Trump's praise for Prime Minister Modi mean?
00:08Is this classic Trumpian foreign policy, say one thing one day, say something the other?
00:14Should India forcefully convey its concerns to the US president?
00:19Some of the questions I will raise tonight, joining me now, Casey Singh, veteran diplomat, joined me.
00:24He's tracked diplomacy for decades.
00:25Pramit Pal Choudhury, head of India practice at the Eurasia Group, has tracked the United States for a long time.
00:31Greg Kafura, director of public opinion and foreign policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, is with us.
00:39Let me come to you, Mr. Kafura, first.
00:41How should we look at the US president's comments?
00:45At one level, he says India is a great friend.
00:48He has a terrific relationship with Prime Minister Modi.
00:51And yet, over the last one year, we've seen numerous pressure points.
00:56The US president, time and again, in a way, taking on India.
01:00Whether it's on tariffs and trade, which has been more frequent than others.
01:05But even on other issues, including taking credit for ending Operation Sindhu.
01:09How should one read?
01:11Can India trust Donald Trump?
01:15Well, it's a good question.
01:16I think one of the other questions is, you know, can anyone trust Donald Trump on any particular statement or
01:21any particular day?
01:22But one of the things to remember about the way that Trump conducts foreign policy is that it's very personal
01:28and very personalistic.
01:29And that doesn't always translate very well into the broader diplomatic security-political relationship that you need to sort of
01:38put out through state and the Pentagon and DOD.
01:43And I think that's where you get some of these conflicting divergences in US policy.
01:49Not just on US-India relations, but on other relationships as well.
01:53Think of the US relationship with China.
01:55Yeah, Trump clearly has and wants to have a great relationship with Xi Jinping.
02:00That's not necessarily, you know, Gita Xa's priority or Marco Rubio's priority or, you know, the USTR's priority.
02:09In the India relationship, I do think it's, if you're looking at this as sort of a good news story,
02:15he clearly sees Modi as a strong leader.
02:18He's heaped praise, I mean, truly heaped praise on Modi in this conversation, even saying that he'll protect India if
02:25India is attacked, which I don't think other presidents have gone as far to say.
02:31How seriously he means that, though, that's another question.
02:34And I do think that's where Trump likes to talk and likes to say a lot of things.
02:39I'm not convinced that that means something.
02:41If the trade, if they work through the trade negotiations, if they work through the trade deal and get something
02:46signed, I think that would be a point of real progress.
02:49Casey Singh, you want to respond?
02:51Here is a US president, as Craig Kafura says, that if India is attacked, the US will be there to
02:55protect it.
02:56But we've seen in the past, for example, when Galwan happened, we didn't have the US standing up for India
03:02strongly on Operation Sindhoor, as I just mentioned.
03:05The US, in fact, has, if anything, moved closer to Pakistan rather than India in the last 12 months.
03:11So how does one trust someone like Donald Trump?
03:14No, that's actually correct.
03:17Whom would India have a conflict with?
03:20Either Pakistan or China?
03:21Now, where China is involved, they've already taken the eye out of the CENTCOM thing.
03:27So they're no longer treating the Indian Ocean as part of the CENTCOM thing, which had come during his first
03:32term, where they linked up the Pacific and the Indian Ocean, and India had become a part of it.
03:38Secondly, he's still sitting on a bill which is supposed to give alms to Taiwan.
03:43He hasn't done that before his visit to China or after his visit to China.
03:47So if we have a conflict with China, I don't see him coming to your aid.
03:52So, you know, this is typical.
03:53But of course, it went very well for Prime Minister Modi, because the impression in India was growing that Prime
03:59Minister Modi hasn't taken a stand, he's not spoken up.
04:02So I think all those got addressed.
04:04I have a feeling that President Trump had been briefed about that, and he went out of his way to
04:10show that his relationship with Prime Minister Modi is excellent, and so on and so forth, and to address any
04:18questions regarding there being differences between India and U.S.
04:22And of course, where relations are concerned, he'll be transactional.
04:25He's been transactional for the last year and a half, and he'll continue to be transactional.
04:30And we have to be used to it.
04:31But that's precisely also what the other leaders of the G7 did.
04:36They just flattered him and went along with him.
04:40And then he was much better.
04:41No, no, no, but Mr. Casey Singh, where is this diplomacy as flattery, where is it getting us?
04:46You see, we can flatter Trump, he can flatter us.
04:50At the end of the day, the proof of the eating lies in the pudding.
04:53Now, Mr. Khafura made the point that there could be a trade deal next week.
04:58Now, if that happens, that's visible progress.
05:00But otherwise, whether it's...
05:01And I'll put those sticking points in a moment.
05:03Look at these sticking points, Mr. Singh.
05:05Operation Sindhuur and the Ceasefire Claims, Trump Claiming U.S. Role in India Park De-Escalation,
05:11India rejecting the third-party mediation narrative.
05:15Agriculture and dairy access.
05:17U.S. has been pushing for entry of agri and dairy products.
05:20India protecting farmer-sensitive sectors,
05:23even as the U.S. has been putting penalty clauses even on India when it comes to tariffs.
05:28Russian oil purchases.
05:31U.S. wanted India to stop all discounted Russian oil imports
05:36while India was asserting its energy choices.
05:39We've seen what's happened in the Hormuz strikes.
05:41Death of three Indian sailors, which Trump seemed to brush aside.
05:45So, how do you...
05:45You see, ultimately, it's not just about flattery.
05:48It has to be about trust.
05:49How does one trust him?
05:51No, you're absolutely right.
05:52There is no trust with anyone dealing with President Trump.
05:55You have to deal with him on a daily basis.
05:58And you have to be prepared for the worst.
06:00And I think that's what the Iranians are doing.
06:03They've gone ahead with the MOU and there are 60 days of negotiations.
06:07Let's see what emerges from it.
06:09We'll first see on Friday what are the details of the MOU.
06:13So, essentially, with President Trump, what has emerged is either if you have leverage like China has, you can stop
06:21him.
06:21Or you suffer whatever he has to do, like Iran, and you tire him out.
06:26You stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and then he backs off.
06:31So, he backs off only when he knows he has no other option.
06:36And he is suffering politically, domestically.
06:38Otherwise, he's transactional.
06:40He'll be very nice.
06:41He'll shake your hands.
06:42He'll do all that.
06:43But, essentially, on substance, he will not compromise.
06:47Unless he sees he has something to lose.
06:50You know, let's come to specifics, Pramit Pal Jodhry.
06:53There's talk of...
06:54Trump made the point that we are ever so close to a trade deal.
06:59Let me play what he said, and I want you to respond to that.
07:02Because Donald Trump was asked the question about the trade deal.
07:05And he seemed to suggest that we are very, very close to inking a trade deal.
07:11The U.S. trade representatives are supposed to be here next week in India.
07:15Listen in to what he said, and then I'll get you to respond, Pramit.
07:19Prime Minister Modi is a friend of mine, but they don't do very much business in terms of business with
07:24us.
07:25They sell a lot to us, but we don't buy from them.
07:28You know why?
07:28Because the tariff is so high.
07:30They have one of the highest tariffs in the world.
07:32Now, they're willing to cut it very substantially.
07:34But we'll see what happens.
07:35We're talking to India now.
07:36We'll see what happens.
07:37It doesn't matter too much whether we have a deal or whether we charge them a certain tariff.
07:42We had, in particular, some very good conversations with Prime Minister Modi, India.
07:48And we're doing trade deals.
07:50We're doing a lot of things.
07:51A lot of things are happening between the United States and India.
07:54The United States is doing the best we've ever done.
07:57We have over $19.2 trillion coming in.
08:01And we're building factories.
08:03We're building everything.
08:04And the Prime Minister is building a lot in the United States.
08:07He's spending a lot of money in the United States.
08:09So we appreciate that job.
08:11But I just want to say he's been my friend for a long time now.
08:14And we've always had a great relationship.
08:17And it's great to be with you.
08:19Thank you very much.
08:21Great to be with you.
08:23You heard what he said in July 2025, Pramit.
08:26And now what he says in June of 2026.
08:29Do you believe that this is a reset?
08:32Are you seeing a reset, particularly through trade?
08:37It's not a reset.
08:38This has been going on for quite a while.
08:40Negotiations have been going on since March.
08:43We know that about six times now, India and the U.S. negotiators have come close to a deal.
08:48And each time, President Trump has basically killed it and said, the Indians are not giving me enough.
08:54He is a hard negotiator and a very hard-nosed believer in American interests on the economic side.
09:02As Ambassador Singh said, he is completely transactional.
09:06He is about pushing what he sees as America's core economic interests.
09:11We can't fault him for that.
09:13That's what all national leaders should be doing.
09:15And he's really hard about it.
09:17So what we seem to have now gotten is a cluster of deals coming together, for which we can possibly
09:25credit the new U.S. ambassador here,
09:28in which we have probably a set of energy deals coming through.
09:32Because one thing that has been a huge transformation over the past one year
09:37is that the United States is now the world's largest oil and gas producer.
09:42It is by far bigger than Saudi Arabia and Russia, for example.
09:47And as we wish to diversify away from the Persian Gulf, it kind of makes sense for us to buy
09:52some of that from the United States.
09:55Some defense deals, some of which have already been announced,
09:58as well as a trade deal, which incorporates some of the concessions that he has mentioned.
10:04And I point out what he said about India investing in America.
10:08As I think, again, the Americans have said, we expect a certain amount of investment from India into the United
10:15States.
10:16And we've achieved roughly that $20 billion target.
10:19That was pretty easy because the Indian private sector is very eager to buy technology from the United States.
10:25And we saw, for example, Sun Pharma's purchase of Organon in New Jersey for $11 billion virtually brought you halfway
10:33there.
10:33That cluster is basically where I see, is why I see the likelihood of an Indo-U.S. bilateral trade
10:42agreement coming through reasonably quickly.
10:45Craig Kafura, do you believe that could be a game changer once the trade deal is signed?
10:50That fits in with Donald Trump's objectives, as we all call him, transactional.
10:54He's spoken about, I mean, one of the, where the opposition is criticizing the Prime Minister here is that $500
11:01billion have been guaranteed to the United States
11:04that we will purchase from them in the next five years.
11:06Many are questioning whether the Prime Minister is going too far in, sort of, according to them, supplicating before the
11:14United States.
11:15How do you see it? Is it a win-win U.S. trade deal that will come?
11:18And should that become then the pivot around which the rest of the relationship now depends?
11:25I mean, it's going to depend on what exactly ends up in that deal.
11:28It might get signed next week with USTR Greer in India next week, this time, to sort of wrap some
11:34of those final specifics.
11:35And if anyone's going to look over that thing with the fine-tooth comb on the U.S. side, it's
11:39going to be Greer.
11:40Now, if that removes some of the irritants and obstacles in the relationship that, from Trump's perspective,
11:47yes, that could be a point at which, you know, U.S. interrelations can get onto a better track.
11:52That said, U.S. deals with other countries, including some very close allies like South Korea and Japan,
11:59have included these large-scale purchase requirements, investment requirements,
12:05with not a lot of transparency around them.
12:07They have caused domestic problems in those countries.
12:09I would expect that the same problems are going to face politicians in India who have to put their name
12:15for this deal.
12:16But if you think more broadly about the relationship, I do think there are some other positive signs.
12:21Americans broadly like India and think positively of India.
12:26And also, frankly, I think everyone's going to be happy if this ceasefire with Iran holds.
12:31And if you can get oil flowing again, if tankers do start passing through the strait,
12:36that will be a sort of relief for the global economy, for the Indian economy, for the U.S. economy.
12:42If we can just sort of not start any more wars in the Middle East, that would be, I think,
12:48a benefit for everyone.
12:49You know, Casey Singh, let me also give him the points of friction once again.
12:542025, Donald Trump imposed heavy tariffs on India where our trade ties were hit.
12:59Then he repeatedly claimed, as we say, mediated Indo-Park truce during Operation Sindhuur.
13:04In March 2026, a U.S. submarine torpedoed an Iranian warship returning from naval exercises in India.
13:10And then we've seen the Strait of Hormuz blockade hitting India's energy supplies.
13:15And now the U.S. strikes on merchant vessels with Indian sailors on board.
13:19Three Indians died in an attack.
13:21India summoned the U.S. diplomat and lodged a strong protest.
13:25But today, when the president was asked about Prime Minister Modi, this is what he said.
13:31And then I want you to respond, Casey Singh, to that.
13:33As you said, there was a lot of flattery on both sides.
13:36This is what the U.S. president had to say about Prime Minister Modi.
13:45He's a very tough negotiator.
13:47He's one of the toughest, actually.
13:50So you look at this man.
13:51I'll give you a lesson.
13:52He's the most beautiful looking man.
13:54He looks so nice.
13:55He's like an angel.
13:57But actually, he's as tough as he's a killer.
14:00I don't want to...
14:00He's a killer.
14:02He's as tough as they come.
14:03But he looks so good.
14:05So he gets you by surprise.
14:07There's few people like this.
14:09People say, he's such a nice man.
14:11I said, no, he's very tough.
14:13He's a tough negotiator.
14:16And he loves the Indian people.
14:18But he also loves the U.S.
14:19And we had Howdy Moody in Houston, remember?
14:22And the stadium was full.
14:23Never stay tough.
14:25Right?
14:26He did never stay Trump in India.
14:28That was great.
14:28Then we'll be going to India.
14:31You know, at one level, he's a tough negotiator.
14:34He's a killer, as he calls it.
14:37At another level, he says, very calm and collected.
14:39He's my friend.
14:40I mean, Donald Trump keeps sending mixed signals.
14:43Today was, as you said, very warm in his response to the Indian Prime Minister.
14:48Going ahead, therefore, Casey Singh, how should we see this?
14:52Should we see this in the context of the fact that Donald Trump also needs good news around him
14:59after all that's happened in the last few months,
15:02with many even saying that the deal with Iran is a virtual surrender?
15:08Look, there's a lesson in that for us.
15:11Because you remember, Prime Minister was in Israel just before the war started.
15:15So, essentially, we were aligned very clearly with the UAE, Israel, U.S. camp.
15:22Now, what happens when Trump abandons all these guys and does a deal with Iran?
15:28Now, it's okay.
15:29It doesn't affect us.
15:30But what happens is that we really have UAE left.
15:34Because you've seen the other countries where not only Qatar was invited.
15:38Saudis were not there for the G7.
15:41So, therefore, you know, there's a division in the GCC.
15:43If we keep away from too much alignment with anyone, then you can play your cards however it ends.
15:51But if it ends like this, that you're left, now you don't know what's going to happen to Netanyahu.
15:56There's an election at the end of November.
15:58If he loses, then there's personalized diplomacy.
16:01See, Prime Minister likes personalized diplomacy.
16:04It's excellent if you have to get over hurdles.
16:07But on a constant basis, it depends on people.
16:10If a person loses the election, he's not there, then their personalized diplomacy doesn't help.
16:16Trump is not talking of India.
16:17He's talking of Prime Minister.
16:19So, he has to talk.
16:20We have to do India-U.S. relations.
16:23It's excellent that Prime Minister has the equation.
16:25But that equation has to be translated into a transaction.
16:30And I'm sure Prime Minister is being transactional.
16:33And that is the frustration that Trump is showing.
16:35That he doesn't bend.
16:37And therefore, when you put pressure, he doesn't bend.
16:40Now, which is a good thing.
16:41Now, we will get to know what kind of a deal we get.
16:44Otherwise, November elections, probably President Trump will lose, the Republicans will lose, certainly the House, maybe even the Senate.
16:53He gets weakened after that.
16:55So, we really have four or five months left in which Netanyahu may go, President Trump may be weaker.
17:01So, playing for time, there is no harm.
17:05After that, really, you have just two years of Trump left.
17:08It's good to keep him busy like this and keep him, etc.
17:12And you'll have to manage.
17:13But you hope the Ukraine war ends.
17:16Because then our relationship with Russia is not affected by sanctions.
17:20That is a bad thing.
17:21That Trump tries controlling you by imposing sanctions on a country that you're trading with, which has been an old
17:29friend.
17:29So, you can't be all the time.
17:31We're told that a condition for friendship with India is that you will go by.
17:36Because traditionally, we've always said we will accept UN sanctions.
17:40We will not respect sanctions from any single country.
17:44But we've been doing it with the U.S.
17:46And I think that is something we have to overcome.
17:49Very quickly, then, for Pramit Pal Chaudhry.
17:52A short-term horizon.
17:53Do you think things are getting better after what's been a very difficult year over the last 12 months?
17:59Yes, I think the trade deal has a very good chance of coming through.
18:03That will stabilize the economic relationship.
18:05That's particularly important at a time when we need FDI into this country.
18:10And a lot of American manufacturers, in particular, are waiting for this, for tariff stabilization, if you wish.
18:18That's one part of it.
18:20But keep in mind that Trump has a very different strategic view of the world.
18:25He does not see the Indo-Pacific strategy of his predecessors as important.
18:31He doesn't see containing China through a coalition of other countries.
18:37I see AUKUS as another organization that is basically on its deathbed.
18:42A lot of that will change.
18:44But keep in mind, we don't know how long that will survive.
18:47Because after Trump, we may see a progressive Democrat government, which may have a very different point of view.
18:53But nonetheless, no matter which government comes to power in America, they will be isolationist and transactional.
19:00On that note, I appreciate my guests joining us and giving us a few reality checks
19:05amidst all the warmth that was on display in that Trump-Modi meeting.
19:09Thank you all very much for joining me on the show tonight.
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